Overview of Key Markets: Scenario 1
Overview of Key Markets: Scenario 1
Overview of Key Markets: Scenario 1
11%
9%
13%
5303
487
3771
India
719
China
China Export
USA
Italy
Ukraine
ROW
263
416
548
48
131
00
113
00
205
41
43
08
138
Address.
OI
market targets
India
234
975
687
138
554
00
00
126
135
151
95
14
166
Address.
OI
market targets
2007
Russia
309
946
946
946
2069
2069
2069
2069
946
809
534
535
227
946
5376
534
534
156
439
24%
5682
5559
Russia
19%
China Export
1184
709
140
00
252
Address.
OI
market targets
2008
China
203
39
91
35
160
110
22
00
1094 146
203
1175
140
312
80
Address.
OI
market targets
2009
USA
Italy
2010
Ukraine
210
35
200
110
53
28
1311
203
269
1175
140
312
00
192
161
200
110
67
00
Address.
OI
market targets
2011
ROW
1) India: without Metro segment; USA: without HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and without PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)
Page 1
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 2 1)
15%
12%
13%
18%
22%
7756
534
309
7054
534
5559
487
Russia
India
China
China Export
USA
Italy
Ukraine
ROW
5303
534
156
946
3771
946
535
946
2069
227
946
2069
439
719
946
809
416
548
263
48
131
00
113
00
205
41
43
08
138
Address.
OI
market targets
India
234
975
554
687
138
00
00
126
135
151
95
14
166
Address.
OI
market targets
2007
Russia
2069
China Export
709
203
1184
140
00
39
91
35
160
110
252
22
00
Address.
OI
market targets
2008
China
2069
1575
1260
1175
Address.
OI
market targets
2009
USA
Italy
140
80
312
2010
Ukraine
146
210
35
200
276
53
28
2583
269
1741 192
1175
540
140
00
161
200
312
67
00
Address.
OI
market targets
2011
ROW
1) India: incl. Metro segment; USA: incl. HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and incl. PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)
Page 2
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
0%
0%
7%
27%
50%
530
530
530
490
440
OI target 2009-2111:
45'
146
OI target 2009-2111:
15'
39
00
00
2007
2008
Addressable market
Page 3
2010
2011
28%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
6%
10%
15%
38%
48%
140
140
140
140
130
69'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:
14'
67
OI target 2007-2111:
16'4
53
OI target 2007-2111:
22
3'3
14
10
2008
Addressable market
Page 4
2009
2010
2011
23%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 1:
Without HR
segment
30%
0%
40%
61%
62%
310
300
230
200
187
192
160
24'
OI target 2007-2111:
53'
91
OI target 2007-2111:
62
10'6
00
2007
2008
Addressable market
Page 5
2010
2011
39%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 2:
With HR
segment
16%
0%
40%
39%
62%
720
195'
Addressable market size
2007-2011:
540
39'
OI target 2007-2111:
310
230
210
160
113
192
00
2008
Addressable market
Page 6
OI target 2007-2111:
12'
91
2007
61'
2010
2011
31%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
90%
10%
21%
27%
27%
1180
1180
1180
980
252
312
312
20'
95
50 43
OI target 2007-2111:
2008
Addressable market
Page 7
2009
2010
2011
35%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 1: Without
Washington, NYCT, Patco,
Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans
15%
65%
54%
54%
54%
260
110'
230
200
200
200
151
OI target 2007-2111:
110
110
110
52'
OI target 2007-2111:
41
10'
Average market share:
2007
2008
Addressable market
Page 8
2009
2010
2011
48%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 2: With
Washington, NYCT, Patco,
Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans
15%
65%
54%
18%
21%
2580
97'
1580
OI target 2007-2111:
112'
540
260
230
40
22'
280
110
2007
2008
Addressable market
Page 9
150
200
OI target 2007-2111:
2009
2010
2011
35%
OI targets TS BG
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Projects 5% probability
not included in targets
12%
9%
6%
8%
12%
Market share
Export
25%
7%
8%
10%
10%
Market share
National
0%
13%
4%
4%
17%
3020
3020
3020
3020
2070
1760
2070
2070
2070
OI target 2007-2111:
126'
810
OI target 2007-2111:
950
950
210
210 00
35
950 361
200 35
200
161
Address. OI
market targets
Address. OI
market targets
Address. OI
market targets
Address. OI
market targets
Address. OI
market targets
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Page 10
Feb-07
25'
Average market share:
9%
China export
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Italy, China, Russia, Ukraine, India, Iran and U.S.A. are volumewise the most attractive markets the growth markets are
rated low on economic freedom
Market Attractiveness (Bubble Sizes: Addressable Third Market 2007 2009 in Mio )
+ 495 Mio
export potential
for HR, LR, PC
U.S.A.
Economic Freedom
Free
Italy
China
Mostly
Free
Ukraine
Russia
Mostly
Unfree
India
Repressed
Including Single Deck in Italy; incl. Metro segment in India; incl. Metro North in U.S.A.
0%
1%
2%
3%
Page 11
Feb-07
4%
5%
GDP Growth
6%
7%
8%
9%
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 1 1)
11%
9%
13%
24%
19%
131
7
107
3
5
31
11
31
52
41
1
4
14
17
71
25
15
21
14
11
2007
13
-
2008
Russia
India
16
20
10
20
11
11
19
16
21
15
4
4
2009
China
China Export
27
2010
U.S.A.
Italy
Ukraine
2011
ROW
1) India: without Metro segment; USA: without HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and without PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)
Page 12
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG
Scenario 2 1)
11%
9%
13%
19%
24%
1) India: incl. Metro segment; USA: incl. HR (Washington, NYCT, Patco) and incl. PC (Amtrak, Caltrain, Caltrans)
Page 13
Feb-07
Transportation Systems / TS BG