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Delphi Cost Estimation

The Delphi technique was developed to gain expert consensus on estimates and forecasts without direct debate or discussion. It involves having experts anonymously give their estimates multiple times, with feedback provided between rounds on the estimates of other experts. This document describes how the Delphi technique can be adapted for software cost estimation, having experts anonymously provide multiple rounds of estimates for a project's cost based on its requirements documentation.

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VinayKumarSingh
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as PPT or read online on Scribd
7K views

Delphi Cost Estimation

The Delphi technique was developed to gain expert consensus on estimates and forecasts without direct debate or discussion. It involves having experts anonymously give their estimates multiple times, with feedback provided between rounds on the estimates of other experts. This document describes how the Delphi technique can be adapted for software cost estimation, having experts anonymously provide multiple rounds of estimates for a project's cost based on its requirements documentation.

Uploaded by

VinayKumarSingh
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPT or read online on Scribd
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Delphi Cost

Estimation

P V KRISHNA KISHORE
The Delphi technique was developed at
the RAND corporation in 1948 to gain
expert consensus without introducing the
adverse side effects of group meetings.
The Delphi technique can be adapted to
software cost estimation in the following manner:

• A coordinator provides each estimator with the System


Definition document and form for recording a cost
estimate.

• Estimators study the definition and complete their


estimates anonymously. They may ask questions of
the coordinator, but they do not discuss their estimates
with one another.
• The coordinator prepares and distributes a summary of
the estimators’ responses, and includes any unusual
rationales noted by the estimators.

• Estimators complete another estimate again


anonymously using the results from the previous
estimate. Estimators whose estimates differ sharply
from the group may be asked, to provide justification
for their estimates.
• The process is iterated for as many rounds as
required. No group discussion is allowed during the
entire process.

• The following approach is a variation on the standard


Delphi technique that increases communication while
preserving anonymity.
• The coordinator provides each estimator with a
system definition and an estimation form.

• The estimators study the definition, and the


coordinator calls a group meeting so that estimators
can discuss estimation issues with the coordinator and
one another.

• Estimators complete their estimates anonymously.


• The coordinator prepares a summary of the estimates
but does not record any rationales.

• The coordinator calls a group meeting to focus on


issues where the estimates vary widely.

• Estimators complete another estimate again


anonymously. The process is iterated as many rounds
as necessary.
• It is possible that several rounds of estimates will not
lead to a consensus estimate.

• In this case the coordinator must discuss the issues


involved with each estimator to determine the reasons
for the differences.

• The coordinator may have to gather additional


information and present it to the estimators in order to
resolve the differences.

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