Sun Pharma 1QFY2013
Sun Pharma 1QFY2013
Sun Pharma 1QFY2013
Sun Pharma
Performance Highlights
(` cr)
Net sales Other income Gross profit Operating profit Net profit Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg qoq
14.1
`676
1QFY2013
2,658 (2) 2,156 1,217 796
4QFY2012
2,330 218 1,839 956 820
1QFY2012
1,636 110
% chg yoy
62.5 52.1 75.5 122.3 58.8
Investment Period
Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a much higher-thanexpected 1QFY2013 performance. Its net sales reported a 62.5% yoy growth. The net profit grew by 58.8% yoy, driven by a higher-than-expected improvement in sales and a higher-than-expected expansion in the OPM. In constant US$ terms, the company posted net sales and profit growth of 34% yoy and 31% yoy respectively. However, on account of the stocks rich valuation, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Better-than-expected results: For 1QFY2013, Sun Pharma reported net sales of `2,658cr, up 62.5% yoy, mainly driven by exports. The companys OPM expanded to 45.8% in 1QFY2013 from 33.5% in 1QFY2012. Also, the gross margin came higher at 81.1% from 75.1% in 1QFY2012. The net profit during the quarter reported a 58.8% yoy growth to `796cr, which is higher than expectations, mainly on the back of a higher sales growth and an expansion in the OPM. Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing Indian pharmaceutical companies. Its management has guided to 15-20% topline growth for FY2013. We expect Sun Pharmas net sales to post a 23.1% CAGR to `12,134cr. However, on account of higher taxation, we expect a flat EPS of `28.2 over FY201214E. The current declaration by Sun Pharma with regards to the possible product damages of $1bn on Pantaprazole, as estimated by Pfizer, could act as an overhang on the stock. However, on account of rich valuations, we recommend a Neutral stance on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 5,721 34.8 1,816 34.5 17.5 34.4 38.5 21.0 19.1 7.4 11.9 34.7 FY2012E 8,006 40.2 2,584 42.3 25.0 40.6 27.1 23.9 25.3 5.8 8.4 20.6 FY2013E 9,752 21.7 2,689 4.1 26.0 41.6 26.0 20.3 25.4 4.9 6.0 14.5 FY2014E 12,134 24.4 2,925 8.8 28.2 41.6 23.9 18.8 26.7 4.2 4.5 10.9
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 63.7 10.4 20.6 5.3
3m 6.9 14.0
1yr 2.5
3yr 17.0
40.4 184.2
1QFY2013 2,658 (1.9) 2,656 2,156 81.1 1,217 45.8 21 80 1,114 192 921 126 0 796 7.7
4QFY2012 2,330 218.1 2,548 1,839 78.9 956 41.1 11 82 1,081 177 904 84 0 820 7.9
% chg qoq 14.1 4 17.2 27.2 (2.6) 3.0 8.9 1.9 49.3 (3.0)
1QFY2012 1,636 110.5 1,746 1,229 75.1 547 33.5 14 65 580 14 565 64 0 501 4.8
FY2011 5,721 272.7 5,994 4,261 72.6 1,967 34.4 0 204 2,036 128 1,907 91 0 1,816 13.7
% chg 39.9 55.5 40.6 49.37 65.2 42.7 64.8 197.9 55.9 322 42.5
Higher-than-expected top-line performance: Sun Pharma reported 62.5% yoy growth in its net sales to `2,658cr during 1QFY2013, above our expectation of `2,000cr. The growth in the top-line was mainly driven by the inclusion of Taros financials as well as strong growth in overall exports. The companys domestic segment reported a dip of 8.0% yoy during the quarter. Overall, exports sales of finished dosage products stood at `1,453cr in 4QFY2012, accounting for 63% of total sales. Taros net sales for the quarter came in at US$159mn, registering a 43% yoy growth. The net profit for the quarter was at US$63mn. The US business grew by 105% led by supplies from Doxil while it ramped up market share to ~80% from the earlier 40%. Ex-Doxil and Taro, US growth of 51% was led by a ramp-up. Operating margins were at 49.6%, up 19% yoy and 4% qoq (had been estimated at 44%), led by an increase in gross margins and a proportionately lower increase in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. The PAT at US $63mn was up 72% against an estimated US $55mn.
Taro has shared that it remains cautious of the increasing competition and consequential erosion of volume on some of its major products. This could result in significant challenges in maintaining its current performance. Overall, the US sales during the quarter were at US$285mn, up by 105% yoy, accounting for 57% of total sales. Sales of Caraco increased by 185% yoy during the quarter. On the regulatory front, during the quarter, an abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for one product was filed. With this, ANDAs for 391 products cumulatively have been filed by Sun Pharma and Taro with the USFDA. ANDAs for six products received approvals in 1QFY2013, taking the total number of approvals to 256. Currently, ANDAs for 135 products await USFDA approval, including 17 tentative approvals.
(`cr)
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1QFY2012 2QFY2012 Domestic Sales 3QFY2012 4QFY2012 Export Sales 1QFY2013 638 1022 877 705 1217 696 1475 1487 1908 588
OPM much higher than expectations: The companys OPM expanded to 45.8% in 1QFY2013 from 33.5% in 1QFY2012. Also, the gross margin came in higher at 81.1% from 75.1% in 1QFY2012. Amongst the key expenditure, the R&D and other expenditure increased by 57% yoy and 42.9% yoy respectively.
(%)
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 1QFY2012 2QFY2012 3QFY2012 4QFY2012 1QFY2013
Net profit came in above expectations: For 1QFY2013, the companys net profit came in at `796cr, up 58.8% yoy. This was higher than the estimated net profit of `568.5cr on account of higher-than-expected sales growth and higher than expected OPM.
Concall takeaways
For FY2013, the management has given a revenue guidance of 1520% on constant currency terms. Management has also decided to spin off the domestic formulation business on a going concern basis, comprising certain assets pertaining to the said business to its wholly owned subsidiary, Sun Resins & Polymers Pvt. Ltd. The total medical representative (MR) strength in the domestic market is of ~3000 executives. The company enjoys a market share of 4.6% in the domestic formulations markets. Sun Pharmas overall tax rate is expected to increase from the current levels to 20% of PBT in FY2013.
August 10, 2012
(`cr)
The management has guided for a capex of `500cr for FY2013. R&D expenses have been guided for 6-8% of sales in FY2013 against 5.7% in FY2012.
Investment arguments
Strongest ANDA pipeline: Sun Pharmas US business posted a 33% CAGR over FY200510, which contributed 30% to its total turnover in FY2010. Sun Pharma, along with Caraco and Taro, now has 151 ANDAs pending USFDA approval, which is one of the highest in the Indian pharma space. Sun Pharma has filed around 30 ANDAs in each of the past few years. The company indicated that it would file ~25 ANDAs in FY2013 as well. On the Caraco front, the resolution of the USFDA issue is not clear. The companys remediation work plan to the USFDA on Caraco is ongoing. Domestic business: Sun Pharmas domestic formulation business has grown at a 23% CAGR, ie above the industrys average over FY200512. It contributed 36% to the companys total turnover in FY2012. The company has 3,000 MRs and its field force productivity is among the highest at around `97lakh/MR per year, which has resulted in high margins from the segment. The company has a market share of around 4.6%, with exposure to psychiatry, neurology, CVS, diabetic and gastroenterology segments. In FY2012, Sun Pharma launched 22 products in the domestic market. Healthy balance sheet: Sun Pharma has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, with cash of around `5,000cr. The management has indicated that it is looking at inorganic growth and scouting for acquisitions, especially in the US and the emerging markets. Outlook and valuation: Sun Pharma is one of the largest and fastest growing Indian pharmaceutical companies. The management has given a guidance of a 15-20% top-line growth for FY2013. Further, the management expects R&D expenses to be ~6-7% of net sales and capex at `500cr for FY2013. We expect Sun Pharmas net sales to post a 23.1% CAGR to `12,134cr. However, on account of higher taxation, we expect a flat EPS of `28.2 over FY201214E. The current declaration by the company with regards possible product damages of $1bn on Pantaprazole, as estimated by Pfizer, could act as an overhang on the stock. However, on account of rich valuations, we recommend a Neutral stance on the stock.
10
15x
20x
25x
2,207 -
Accumulate 874 Accumulate 350 Accumulate 86 Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral 56 406 107 483 676
Accumulate 581
Company background
Sun Pharma is an international specialty pharma company, with a large presence in the US and India, and a footprint across 40 other markets. In India and rest of the world markets, the key chronic therapy areas for the company are cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, gastroenterology, diabetology etc. We are market leaders in specialty therapy areas in India. In India, the company has emerged as a leading pharma company in India where we are the 6th largest by prescription sales. Also in the US, a key geography, the company has expanded significantly through both in-organic and organic routes.
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.2) (0.8) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) (0.9) (0.3) (0.9) (0.4) (1.2) (0.4) (1.4) 2.3 75 98 37 168 1.9 88 88 34 182 2.0 81 75 29 151 2.0 81 69 106 116 2.0 87 78 108 111 2.2 92 83 108 110 27.4 38.5 30.2 15.7 19.9 18.2 19.1 25.0 21.0 25.3 38.1 23.9 25.4 41.7 20.3 26.7 48.2 18.8 40.7 96.3 0.9 34.3 0.0 34.3 30.2 95.2 0.6 18.5 0.0 18.5 30.8 93.7 0.7 21.1 0.0 21.1 37.1 88.5 0.9 29.4 6.9 29.4 37.6 80.0 1.0 29.1 0.0 29.1 38.0 80.0 1.1 34.0 0.0 34.0 17.6 17.6 93.7 13.8 68.0 13.0 13.0 72.6 13.8 75.6 17.5 17.5 97.5 16.6 91.6 25.0 25.0 138.8 22.8 117.5 26.0 26.0 148.8 24.8 138.8 28.2 28.2 162.1 24.8 162.3 36.7 6.9 9.5 2.1 15.3 35.0 8.9 51.8 9.3 8.9 2.0 17.3 51.0 8.6 38.5 6.9 7.4 2.5 11.9 34.7 6.6 27.1 4.9 5.8 3.4 8.4 20.6 5.1 26.0 4.5 4.9 3.7 6.0 14.5 3.7 23.9 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.5 10.9 2.9 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sun Pharma No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11