FDI Project Report
FDI Project Report
FDI Project Report
1. Introduction......02 1.1 Objective of project.....04 1.2 Research Methodology....05 2. Main text (FDI)....06 2.1 About foreign direct investment 07 2.2 FDI Indian scenario.08 2.3 FDI in India approval route.10 2.4 Analysis of sector specific policy of FDI11 2.5 Analysis of share of top ten investing countries in India.....16 2.6 Analysis of sectors attracting highest FDI equity in flows..20 3. Main text (FII)..22 3.1 Introduction to FII....27 3.2 Market design in India for FIIs....28 3.3 Registration process of FIIs.29 3.4 Prohibition on investment31 3.5 Trends of FIIs in India.32 3.6 Analysis of trends in FIIs investment..33 3.7 Details of indices taken36 3.8 Framing of hypothesis.38 3.9 Recording of observation.39 4. Key findings.40 5. Limitation.42 6. Conclusion ...43 7. Bibliography44 7.1 Internet sites....44 7.2 Journal.44 7.3 Books..44
1 . INTRODUCTION
Foreign investment refers to investments made by the residents of a country in the financial assets and production processes of another country. The effect of foreign investment, however, varies from country to country. It can affect the factor productivity of the recipient country and can also affect the balance of payments. Foreign investment provides a channel through which countries can gain access to foreign capital. It can come in two forms: foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII). Foreign direct investment involves in direct production activities and is also of a medium- to long-term nature. But foreign institutional investment is a short-term investment, mostly in the financial markets. FII, given its short-term nature, can have bidirectional causation with the returns of other domestic financial markets such as money markets, stock markets, and foreign exchange markets. Hence, understanding the determinants of FII is very important for any emerging economy as FII exerts a larger impact on the domestic financial markets in the short run and a real impact in the long run. India, being a capital scarce country, has taken many measures to attract foreign investment since the beginning of reforms in 1991. India is the second largest country in the world, with a population of over 1 billion people. As a developing country, Indias economy is characterized by wage rates that are significantly lower than those in most developed countries. These two traits combine to make India a natural destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII). Until recently, however, India has attracted only a small share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII), primarily due to government restrictions on foreign involvement in the economy. But beginning in 1991 and accelerating rapidly since 2000, India has liberalized its investment regulations and actively encouraged new foreign investment, a sharp reversal from decades of discouraging economic integration with the global economy. The world is increasingly becoming interdependent. In fact, the world has become a borderless world. With the globalization of the various markets, international financial flows have so far been in excess for the goods and services among the trading countries of the world. Of the different types of financial inflows, the foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII)) has played an important role in the 2
process of development of many economies. Further many developing countries consider foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) as an important element in their development strategy among the various forms of foreign assistance. The Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) flows are usually preferred over the other form of external finance, because they are not debt creating, nonvolatile in nature and their returns depend upon the projects financed by the investor. The Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) would also facilitate international trade and transfer of knowledge, skills and technology. The Foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) is the process by which the resident of one country(the source country) acquire the ownership of assets for the purpose of controlling the production, distribution and other productive activities of a firm in another country(the host country). According to the international monetary fund (IMF), foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) is defined as an investment that is made to acquire a lasting interest in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of investor. The government of India (GOI) has also recognized the key role of the foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) in its process of economic development, not only as an addition to its own domestic capital but also as an important source of technology and other global trade practices. In order to attract the required amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII), it has bought about a number of changes in its economic policies and has put in its practice a liberal and more transparent foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) policy with a view to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) inflows into its economy. These changes have heralded the liberalization era of the foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) policy regime into India and have brought about a structural breakthrough in the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) inflows in the economy. In this context, this report is going to analyze the trends and patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign institutional investment (FII) flows into India during the post liberalization period that is 1991 to 2007 year.
Subsection I: objective 1: Examine the trends and patterns in the foreign direct investment (FDI) across different sectors and from different countries in India during 1991-2007 period means during post liberalization period.
Foreign Investment through GDRs (Euro Issues) Indian companies are allowed to raise equity capital in the international market through the issue of Global Depository Receipt (GDRs). GDR investments are treated as FDI and are designated in dollars and are not subject to any ceilings on investment. An applicant company seeking Government's approval in this regard should have consistent track record for good performance (financial or otherwise) for a minimum period of 3 years. This condition would be relaxed for infrastructure projects such as power generation, telecommunication, petroleum exploration and refining, ports, airports and roads.
1. Clearance from FIPB There is no restriction on the number of Euro-issue to be floated by a company or a group of companies in the financial year. A company engaged in the manufacture of items covered under Annex-III of the New Industrial Policy whose direct foreign investment after a proposed Euro issue is likely to exceed 51% or which is implementing a project not contained in Annex-III, would need to obtain prior FIPB clearance before seeking final approval from Ministry of Finance. 2. Use of GDRs The proceeds of the GDRs can be used for financing capital goods imports, capital expenditure including domestic purchase/installation of plant, equipment and building and investment in software development, prepayment or scheduled repayment of earlier external borrowings, and equity investment in JV/WOSs in India. 3. Restrictions However, investment in stock markets and real estate will not be permitted. Companies may retain the proceeds abroad or may remit funds into India in anticipation of the use of funds for approved end uses. Any investment from a foreign firm into India requires the prior approval of the Government of India.
2.3 Foreign direct investments in India are approved through two routes
1. Automatic approval by RBI The Reserve Bank of India accords automatic approval within a period of two weeks (subject to compliance of norms) to all proposals and permits foreign equity up to 24%; 50%; 51%; 74% and 100% is allowed depending on the category of industries and the sectoral caps applicable. The lists are comprehensive and cover most industries of interest to foreign companies. Investments in highpriority industries or for trading companies primarily engaged in exporting are given almost automatic approval by the RBI. 2. The FIPB Route Processing of non-automatic approval cases FIPB stands for Foreign Investment Promotion Board which approves all other cases where the parameters of automatic approval are not met. Normal processing time is 4 to 6 weeks. Its approach is liberal for all sectors and all types of proposals, and rejections are few. It is not necessary for foreign investors to have a local partner, even when the foreign investor wishes to hold less than the entire equity of the company. The portion of the equity not proposed to be held by the foreign investor can be offered to the public.
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2.5 Analysis of share of top ten investing countries FDI equity in flows Table no. 2: Share of top investing countries FDI equity inflows. (Source: http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_fdi_index.htm)
Cumulative amount of FDI inflows (From Aug. 1991 to march 2007): Rs. 2,32,041 crore and US$ 54,628 million.
Foreign investors have begun to take a more active role in the Indian economy in recent years. By country, the largest direct investor in India is Mauritius; largely because of the India-Mauritius double-taxation treaty. Firms based in Mauritius invested 79162 crores in India between Aug. 1991 and March 2007, equal to 34.11 percent of total FDI inflows. The second largest investor in India is the United States, with total capital flows of 24536
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crore during the 19912007 periods, followed by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Japan. Mauritius According to Indian government statistics, Mauritius accounts for the largest share of cumulative FDI inflows to India from 1991 to 2007, nearly 34.11 percent. Many companies based outside of India utilize Mauritian holding companies to take advantage of the India- Mauritius Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA). The DTAA allows foreign firms to bypass Indian capital gains taxes, and may allow some Indiabased firms to avoid paying certain taxes through a process known as round tripping. The extent of round tripping by Indian companies through Mauritius is unknown. However, the Indian government is concerned enough about this problem to have asked the government of Mauritius to set up a joint monitoring mechanism to study these investment flows. The potential loss of tax revenue is of particular concern to the Indian government. The existence of the treaty makes it difficult to clearly understand the pattern of FDI flows, and likely leads to reduced tax revenues collected by the Indian government. United States The United States is the second largest source of FDI in India (10.57 % of the total), valued at 24536 crore in cumulative inflows between August 1991 and March 2007. According to the Indian government, the top sectors attracting FDI from the United States to India during 19912007 (latest available) are fuel (36 percent), telecommunications (11 percent), electrical equipment (10 percent), food processing (9 percent), and services (8 percent). According to the available M&A data, the two top sectors attracting FDI inflows from the United States are computer systems design and programming and manufacturing. Since 2002, many of the major U.S. software and computer brands, such as Microsoft, Honeywell, Cisco Systems, Adobe Systems, McAfee, and Intel have established R&D operations in India, primarily in Hyderabad or Bangalore. The majority of U.S. electronics companies that have announced greenfield projects in India are concentrated in the semiconductor sector. By far the largest such project is AMDs chip manufacturing facility in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. The largest share (36 percent) was found in the manufacturing sector, most prominently in the machinery, chemicals, and
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transportation equipment manufacturing segments. Other important categories of employment are professional, scientific, and technical services; and wholesale trade, with 29 percent and 18 percent of U.S. affiliate employment, respectively. European Union Within the European Union, the largest country investors were the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, with 16660 crore and 11402 crore, respectively, of cumulative FDI inflows between Aug. 1991 and March 2007. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Germany together accounted for almost 75 percent of all FDI flows from the EU to India. All EU countries together accounted for approximately 25 percent of all FDI inflows to India between August 1991 and March 2007. FDI from the EU to India is primarily concentrated in the power/energy, telecommunications, and transportation sectors. The top sectors attracting FDI from the European Union are similar to FDI from the United States. Manufacturing; information services; and professional, scientific, and technical services have attracted the largest shares of FDI inflows from the EU to India since 2000. Unilever, Reuters Group, P&O Ports Ltd, Vodafone, and Barclays are examples of EU companies investing in India by means of mergers and acquisitions. European companies accounted for 31 percent of the total number and 43 percent of the total value for all reported Greenfield FDI projects. The number of EU Greenfield projects was distributed among four major clusters: ICT (17 percent), heavy industry (16 percent), business and financial services (15 percent), and transport (11 percent). However, the heavy industry cluster accounted for the majority (68 percent) of the total value of these projects. Japan Japan was the Fifth largest source of cumulative FDI inflows in India between August 1991 and March 2007, i.e. the cumulative flow is 9313 crore and it is 4.01% of total inflow. FDI inflows to India from most other principal source countries have steadily increased since 2000, but inflows from Japan to India have decreased during this time period. There does not appear to be a single factor that explains the recent decline in FDI inflows from Japan to India. India is, however, one of the largest recipients of Japanese Official Development Assistance (ODA), through which Japan has assisted India in building infrastructure, including electricity generation, transportation, and water supply. It is possible that this Japanese government assistance may crowd out some private sector
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Japanese investment. The top sectors attracting FDI inflows from Japan to India are transportation (54 percent), electrical equipment (7 percent), telecommunications, and services (3 percent). The available M&A data corresponds with the overall FDI trends in sectors attracting inflows from Japan to India. Companies dealing in the transportation industry, specifically automobiles, and the auto component/peripheral industries dominate M&A activity from Japan to India, including Yamaha Motors, Toyota, Kirloskar Auto Parts Ltd., and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. Japanese companies have also invested in an estimated 148 Greenfield FDI projects valued at least at $3.7 billion between 2002 and 2006. In April 2007, Japanese and Indian officials announced a major new collaboration between the two countries to build a new Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, to be funded through a public-private partnership and private-sector FDI, primarily from Japanese companies. The project was begun in January 2008 with initial investment of $2 billion from the two countries. The corridor will cross 6 states and extend for 1,483 km, in an area inhabited by 180 million people. At completion in 2015, the corridor is expected to include total FDI of $4550 billion. A large share of that total is destined for infrastructure, including a 4,000 MW power plant, 3 ports, and 6 airports, along with additional connections to existing ports. Private investment is expected to fund 10-12 new industrial zones, upgrade 56 existing airports, and set up 10 logistics parks. The Indian government expects that by 2020, the industrial corridor will contribute to employment growth of 15 percent in the region, 28 percent growth in industrial output, and 38 percent growth in exports.
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2.6 Analysis of sectors attracting highest FDI equity inflows Table no. 3: Sectors attracting highest FDI equity inflows :( source:
http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_fdi_index.htm)
The sectors receiving the largest shares of total FDI inflows between August 1991 and March 2007 were the electrical equipment sector and the services sector, each accounting for 18.77 and 17.84 percent respectively. These were followed by the telecommunications, transportation, fuels, and chemicals sectors. The top sectors attracting FDI into India via M&A activity were manufacturing; information; and professional, scientific, and technical services. These sectors correspond closely with the sectors identified by the Indian government as attracting the largest shares of FDI inflows overall. ICT and electronics have been the largest industry recipients of Greenfield FDI into India in recent years, but have seen the number of new Greenfield projects plateau
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since 2004. Rather, the size of the projects in these industries has increased substantially. For example, global semiconductor manufacturers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD United States) and Flextronics (Singapore) have entered into separate joint ventures with SemIndia to build semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Hyderabad. The $3 billion AMD-SemIndia joint venture will produce semiconductor chips which can then be used to manufacture electronic products in the Flextronics-SemIndia $3 billion joint venture. The chip fabrication facility will manufacture chips for cell phones, set-top boxes, personal computers, and similar products. The heavy industry and transport equipment sectors together attracted over FDI of 15427 crore in Greenfield FDI projects during 1991 to 2007. The cluster with the highest reported value during 200206 is heavy industry. Projects in this sector tend to be highly capital intensive, with single projects frequently requiring upwards of $6 billion in startup investment costs. The largest recent examples include the POSCO and Arcelor-Mittal Steel projects, and Vedanta Resources (United Kingdom) aluminum smelter project, all planned for the state of Orissa.
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3. MAIN TEXT (FIIS) Subsection II: objective 2: Pertaining to FII: influence of FII on movement of Indian stock exchange during the post liberalization period that is 1991 to 2007.
3.1 Introduction to FII
Since 1990-91, the Government of India embarked on liberalization and economic reforms with a view of bringing about rapid and substantial economic growth and move towards globalization of the economy. As a part of the reforms process, the Government under its New Industrial Policy revamped its foreign investment policy recognizing the growing importance of foreign direct investment as an instrument of technology transfer, augmentation of foreign exchange reserves and globalization of the Indian economy. Simultaneously, the Government, for the first time, permitted portfolio investments from abroad by foreign institutional investors in the Indian capital market. The entry of FIIs seems to be a follow up of the recommendation of the Narsimhan Committee Report on Financial System. While recommending their entry, the Committee, however did not elaborate on the objectives of the suggested policy. The committee only suggested that the capital market should be gradually opened up to foreign portfolio investments. From September 14, 1992 with suitable restrictions, FIIs were permitted to invest in all the securities traded on the primary and secondary markets, including shares, debentures and warrants issued by companies which were listed or were to be listed on the Stock Exchanges in India. While presenting the Budget for 1992-93, the then Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh had announced a proposal to allow reputed foreign investors, such as Pension Funds etc., to invest in Indian capital market. To operationalise this policy announcement, it had become necessary to evolve guidelines for such investments by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs).
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The policy framework for permitting FII investment was provided under the Government of India guidelines vide Press Note date September 14, 1992. The guidelines formulated in this regard were as follows: 1) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) including institutions such as Pension Funds, Mutual Funds, Investment Trusts, Asset Management Companies, Nominee Companies and Incorporated/Institutional Portfolio Managers or their power of attorney holders (providing discretionary and non-discretionary portfolio management services) would be welcome to make investments under these guidelines. 2) FIIs would be welcome to invest in all the securities traded on the Primary and Secondary markets, including the equity and other securities/instruments of companies which are listed/to be listed on the Stock Exchanges in India including the OTC Exchange of India. These would include shares, debentures, warrants, and the schemes floated by domestic Mutual Funds Government would even like to add further categories of securities later from time to time 3) FIIs would be required to obtain an initial registration with Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the nodal regulatory agency for securities markets, before any investment is made by them in the Securities of companies listed on the Stock Exchanges in India, in accordance with these guidelines. Nominee companies, affiliates and subsidiary companies of a FII would be treated as separate FIIs for registration, and may seek separate registration with SEBI. 4) Since there were foreign exchanges controls in force, for various permissions under exchange control, along with their application for initial registration, FIIs were also supposed to file with SEBI another application addressed to RBI for seeking various permissions under FERA, in a format that would be specified by RBI for the purpose. RBI's general permission would be obtained by SEBI before granting initial registration and RBI's FERA permission together by EBI, under a single window approach. 5) For granting registration to the FII, SEBI should take into account the track record of the FII, ts professional competence, financial soundness, experience and such other criteria that may e considered by SEBI to be relevant. Besides, FII seeking initial registration with SEBI were required to hold a registration from the Securities
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Commission, or the regulatory rganization for the stock market in the country of domicile/incorporation of the FII. 6) SEBI's initial registration would be valid for five years. RBI's general permission nder FERA o the FII would also hold good for five years. Both would be renewable for similar five year eriods later on. 7) RBI's general permission under FERA would enable the registered FII to buy, sell and realize apital gains on investments made through initial corpus remitted to India, subscribe/renounce ights offerings of shares, invest on all recognized stock exchanges through a designated bank ranch, and to appoint a domestic Custodian for custody of investments held. 8) This General Permission from RBI would also enable the FII to: a. Open foreign currency denominated accounts in a designated bank. (There could even be more than one account in the same bank branch each designated in different foreign currencies, if it is so required by FII for its operational purposes); b. Open a special non-resident rupee account to which could be credited all receipts from the capital inflows, sale proceeds of shares, dividends and interests; c. Transfer sums from the foreign currency accounts to the rupee account and vice versa, at the market rate of exchange; d. Make investments in the securities in India out of the balances in the rupee account; e. Transfer repairable (after tax) proceeds from the rupee account to the foreign currency account(s); f. Repatriate the capital, capital gains, dividends, incomes received by way of interest, etc. and any compensation received towards sale/renouncement of rights offerings of shares subject to the designated branch of a bank/the custodian being authorized to deduct withholding tax on capital gains and arranging to pay such tax and remitting the net proceeds at market rates of exchange; g. Register FII's holdings without any further clearance under FERA. 9) There would be no restriction on the volume of investment minimum or maximum-for the purpose of entry of FIIs, in the primary/secondary market. Also, there would be no lock-in period prescribed for the purposes of such investments made by FIIs. It was expected that the differential in the rates of taxation of the long term capital gains and
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short term capital gains would automatically induce the FIIs to retain their investments as long term investments. 10) Portfolio investments in primary or secondary markets were subject to a ceiling of 30% of issued share capital for the total holdings of all registered FIIs, in any one company. The ceiling was made applicable to all holdings taking into account the conversions out of the fully and partly convertible debentures issued by the company. The holding of a single FII in any company would also be subject to a ceiling of 10% of total issued capital. For this purpose, the holdings of an FII group would be counted as holdings of a single FII. 11) The maximum holdings of 24% for all non-resident portfolio investments, including those of the registered FIIs, were to include NRI corporate and non-corporate investments, but did not include the following: a. Foreign investments under financial collaborations (direct foreign investments), which are permitted up to 51% in all priority areas. b. Investments by FIIs through the following alternative routes: i. Offshore single/regional funds; ii. Global Depository Receipts; iii. Euro convertibles. 12) Disinvestment would be allowed only through stock exchange in India, including the OTC Exchange. In exceptional cases, SEBI may permit sales other than through stock exchanges, provided the sale price is not significantly different from the stock market quotations, where available. 13) All secondary market operations would be only through the recognized intermediaries on the Indian Stock Exchange, including OTC Exchange of India. A registered FII would be expected not to engage in any short selling in securities and to take delivery of purchased and give delivery of sold securities. 14)A registered FII can appoint as Custodian an agency approved by SEBI to act as custodian of Securities and for confirmation of transactions in Securities, settlement of purchase and sale, and for information reporting. Such custodian should establish separate accounts for detailing on a daily basis the investment capital utilization and securities held by each FII for which it is acting as custodian. The custodian was
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supposing to report to the RBI and SEBI semi-annually as part of its disclosure and reporting guidelines. 15) The RBI should make available to the designated bank branches a list of companies where no investment will be allowed on the basis of the upper prescribed ceiling of 30% having been reached under the portfolio investment scheme. 16) Reserve Bank of India may at any time request by an order a registered FII to submit information regarding the records of utilization of the inward remittances of investment capital and the statement of securities transactions. Reserve Bank of India and/or SEBI may also at any time conduct a direct inspection of the records and accounting books of a registered FII. 17) FIIs investing under this scheme will benefit from a concessional tax regime of a flat rate tax of 20% on dividend and interest income and a tax rate of 10% on long term (one year or more) capital gains. These guidelines were suitably incorporated under the SEBI (FIIs) Regulations, 1995. These regulations continue to maintain the link with the government guidelines through an inserted clause that the investment by FIIs should also be subject to Government guidelines. This linkage has allowed the Government to indicate various investment limits including in specific sectors.
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their funds/clients. Hence, the intention of the guidelines was to allow these categories of investors to invest funds in India on behalf of their 'clients'. These 'clients' later came to be known as sub-accounts. The broad strategy consisted of having a wide variety of clients, including individuals, intermediated through institutional investors, who would be registered as FIIs in India. FIIs are eligible to purchase shares and convertible debentures issued by Indian companies under the Portfolio Investment Scheme.
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(e) Commercial paper. (f) Security receipts. The total investments in equity and equity related instruments (including fully convertible debentures, convertible portion of partially convertible debentures and tradable warrants) made by a Foreign Institutional Investor in India, whether on his own account or on account of his sub- accounts, should not be less than seventy per cent of the aggregate of all the investments of the Foreign Institutional Investor in India, made on his own account and on account of his sub-accounts. However, this is not applicable to any investment of the foreign institutional investor either on its own account or on behalf of its sub-accounts in debt securities which are unlisted or listed or to be listed on any stock exchange if the prior approval of the SEBI has been obtained for such investments. Further, SEBI while granting approval for the investments may impose conditions as are necessary with respect to the maximum amount which can be invested in the debt securities by the foreign institutional investor on its own account or through its subaccounts. A foreign corporate or individual is not eligible to invest through the hundred percent debt route. Even investments made by FIIs in security receipts issued by securitization companies or asset reconstruction companies under the Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002 are not eligible for the investment limits mentioned above. No foreign institutional should invest in security receipts on behalf of its sub-account.
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During the initial year 1992-93, the FII flows started in September, 1992 which amounted to Rs. 13 crore because at this moment government was framing policy guidelines for FIIs. However, within a year, the FIIs rose 39338.46% of 1992-93 during 1993-94 because government had opened door for investment in India. Thereafter, the FII inflows 33
witnessed a dip of 6.45%. The year 1995-1996 witnessed a turnaround, gliding up the contribution of FII to a massive of Rs. 6942 crore. Investment by FIIs during 1996-1997 rose a little i.e. 23.52% of the preceding year. This period was ripe enough for FII Investments because at that time where international capital markets were in the phase of overheating; the Indian economy posted strong fundamentals, stable exchange rate expectations and offered investment incentives and congenial climate for investment of these funds in India. During 1997-98, FII inflows posted a fall of 30.51%. This slack in investments by FIIs was primarily due to the South-East Asian Crisis and the period of volatility experienced between November 1997 and February 1998. The net investment flows by FIIs have always been positive from the year of their entry. Only in the year 1998-99, an outflow to the tune of Rs. 17699 crore was witnessed for the first time. This was primarily because of the economic sanctions imposed on India by the US, Japan and other industrialized economies. These economic sanctions were the result of the testing of series of nuclear bombs by India in May 1998. Thereafter, the FII portfolios investments quickly recovered and showed positive net investments for all the subsequent years. FIIs investments declined from Rs. 10122 crore during 1999-2000 to Rs. 9935 crore during 2000-01. FII investment posted a year-on-year decline of 1.8 % in 2000-01, 11.87 % in 2001-02 and 69.29 % in 2002-03. Investments by FII posted a fall of 80 % in 2002-03 as compared with investments in the period of 1999-00. Investments by FIIs rebounded from depressed levels from the year 2003-04 and witnessed an unprecedented surge. FIIs flows were recycled to India following readjustment of global portfolios of institutional investors, triggered by robust growth in Indian economy and attractive valuations in the Indian equity market as compared with other emerging market economies in Asia. The slowdown in 2004-05 was on account of global uncertainties caused by hardening of crude oil prices and the upturn in the interest rate cycle. The resumption in the net FII inflows to India from August 2004 continued till end 2004-05. The inflows of FIIs during the year 2004-05 was Rs. 45881 crore. During 2006-07 the foreign institutional investors continued to invest large funds in Indian securities market. However, due to global developments like meltdown in global commodities markets and equity market during the three month period between May 2006 to July 2006, fall in Asian Equity markets,
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tightening of capital controls in Thailand and its spillover effects, there was a slack in FII investments. As I had discussed FIIs environment in India like what is FII in India, policy framework for FIIs, market design in India for foreign institutional investors, registration process in India, Trends of Foreign Institutional Investments in India. Now to fulfill the objective of this project i.e. influence of FII on movement of Indian stock exchange (national stock exchange of India) during the post liberalization period that is 1991 to 2007, the following research methodology is designed. This project, in a way, reveals the influence of FIIs investment on movement of Indian stock exchange (national stock exchange of India) during the post liberalization period that is 1991 to 2007. I have applied a simple linear model to estimate the effect of FII on the stock index. The data analysis tools used in the research is correlation and regression. I have taken six indices to study the impact of FII on Indian bourses. One of these indices is Nifty while other five are some specific index of NSE. These six indices give the close picture of Indian stock exchanges. I have taken average monthly data of FIIs and monthly closing index of all the indices. There may be many other factors on which a stock index may depend i.e. Government policies, budgets, bullion market, inflation, economic and political condition of the country, FDI, Re./Dollar exchange rate etc. But for my study I have selected only one independent variable i.e. FII and dependent variable is indices of nifty. This study uses the concept of correlation and regression to study the relationship between FII and stock index. The FII started investing in Indian capital market from September 1992 when the Indian economy was opened up in the same year. Their investments include equity only. The sample data of FIIs investments consists of monthly average from April 1992 to March 2007 and indices value consist monthly closing value with period of study and various observations which is given below in table. Table no. 6: indices period of study and observations.
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1994 has been selected as the base year for S&PCNX 500. The base value of the index is set at 1000. The CNX Bank Index is an index comprised of the most liquid and large capitalized Indian Banking stocks. It provides investors and market intermediaries with a benchmark that captures the capital market performance of Indian Banks. The Index has 12 stocks from the banking sector, which trade on the National Stock Exchange. The CNX Bank Index has a base date of Jan 1, 2000 and base value of 1000. The CNX IT Companies in this index are those that have more than 50% of their turnover from IT related activities like software development, hardware manufacture, vending, support and maintenance. The CNX IT Index constituents represent about 12.80% of the total market capitalization as on September 1, 2006. The CNX IT Index has a base date of Jan 1, 1996 and a base value of 1000. The Base Value of the index was revised from 1000 to 100 w.e.f. May 28, 2004. The CNX Nifty Junior Index comprises of the next rung of liquid securities after those forming part of S&P CNX Nifty. It may be useful to think of the S&P CNX Nifty and the CNX Nifty Junior as making up the 100 most liquid stocks in India. CNX Nifty Junior represents about 8.98% of the total market capitalization as on September 1, 2006. The average traded value for the last six months of all Junior Nifty stocks is approximately 9.17% of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE. Impact cost for CNX Nifty Junior for a portfolio size of RS.2.50 million is 0.15%. The CNX Nifty Junior was introduced on January 1, 1997, with base date and base value being November 03, 1996 and 1000 respectively and a base capital of Rs.0.43 trillion. The S&P CNX Nifty is a well-diversified 50 stock index accounting for 22 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based derivatives and index funds. S&P CNX Nifty is based upon solid economic research and is well respected internationally as a pioneering effort in better understanding how to make a stock market index. The average total traded value for the last six months of all S&P CNX Nifty stocks is approximately 56.31 % of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE. S&P CNX Nifty stocks represent about 59.91 % of the total market capitalization as on September 1, 2006. The base period selected for S&P CNX Nifty index is the close of prices on November 3, 1995, which marks the
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completion of one year of operations of NSE's Capital Market Segment. The base value of the index has been set at 1000 and a base capital of RS.2.06 trillion.
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standard deviations. I can use the Correlation tool to determine whether two ranges of data move together that is, whether large values of one set are associated with large values of the other (positive correlation), whether small values of one set are associated with large values of the other (negative correlation), or whether values in both sets are unrelated (correlation near zero).
4. KEY FINDING:
a) Net FDI in India was valued at $4.7 billion in the 200506 Indian fiscal year, and more than tripled, to $15.7 billion, in the 200607 fiscal year. Almost one-half of all FDI is invested in the Mumbai and New Delhi regions. b) By country, the largest investors in India are Mauritius, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Investors based in many countries have taken advantage of the IndiaMauritius bilateral tax treaty to set up holding companies in Mauritius which subsequently invest in India, thus reducing their tax obligations. c) By industry, the largest destinations for FDI are electrical equipment (including computer software and electronics), services, telecommunications, and transportation.
For objective 2
1. Impact of FII on S&P CNX Nifty: The effect of FII on Nifty is positive and the coefficient of correlation is high so the effect is also high. The standard error comes out to be 575.658 which are high. This does not mean the relation is false but we can say that the error in linear relation is high. 2. Impact of FII on Bank Nifty: The effect of FII on Bank Nifty is positive. So, FII is directly related to Bank Nifty. But the co-efficient of correlation is high so the effect is also high. The standard error comes out to be 1229.644 which are very high. This means that the deviation from the mean value is high. This does not mean the relation is false but we can say that the error in linear relation is high. The value of multiple-R is also
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high. We can say that FII have significant impact on Bank Nifty during the period of 31January-2000- 30-March-07. 3. Impact of FII on CNX 100: CNX 100 is inversely related to FII for the period of 31January- 03- 30-March-2007. But the extent of impact is low as co-efficient of correlation is -0.159. 4. Impact of FII on CNX IT: FII has inversely little significant relation with CNX IT, as the value of correlation is -0.191. This does not mean that there is no relation at all between them. It shows the absence of linear relation between the two variables but not a lack of relationship altogether. 5. Impact of FII on CNX NIFTY JUNIOR: CNX NIFTY JUNIOR directly related to FII for the period of 31-Oct-1995- 30-March-2007. But the value of R is high so the degree of relation is also high low. Standard error in this case is 1319.6 which is high compared to other standard errors between FII and other stock indices. 6. Impact of FII on S&P CNX 500: S&P CNX 500 is also highly correlated with FII. In this case again the degree of relation is high.
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5 LIMITATION
A) The study has limited itself to a sample of top ten investing countries and top ten level sectors which have attracted higher inflow of FDI. B) The data for analysis of impact of FII on stock exchange is limited to National stock exchange (NSE) only
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6.CONCLUSION:
For objective 1:
The process of economic reforms which was initiated in July 1991 to liberalize and globalize the economy had gradually opened up many sectors of its economy for the foreign investors. A large number of changes that were introduced in the countrys regulatory economic policies heralded the liberalization era of the FDI policy regime in India and brought about a structural breakthrough in the volume of the FDI inflows into the economy maintained a fluctuating and unsteady trend during the study period. It might be of interest to note that more than 50% of the total FDI inflows received by India during the period from 1991-2007 came from Mauritius and the USA. The main reason for higher levels of investment from Mauritius was that the fact that India entered into a double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) with Mauritius were protected from taxation in India. Among the different sectors, the electrical and equipment had received the larger proportion followed by service sector and telecommunication sector.
For objective 2:
According to findings and results, I concluded that FII did have high significant impact on the Indian capital market. Therefore, the alternate hypothesis is accepted. S&P CNX NIFTY, BANK NIFTY, CNX NIFTY JUNIOR, S&P CNX 500 showed positive correlation but CNX 100, CNX IT showed negative correlation with FII. Also the degree of relation was high in all the case. It shows high degree of linear relation between FII 43
and stock index. This shows that there is relationship between them. One of the reasons for high degree of any linear relation can also be due to the sample data. The data was taken on monthly basis. The data on daily basis can give more positive results (may be). Also FII is not the only factor affecting the stock indices. There are other major factors that influence the bourses in the stock market. I also analyzed that FII had significant impact on the stock index for the period starting from January 1991 to March 2007. The sample data available for other indices like BANK NIFTY, CNX 100, S&P CNX 500 was low with just 51, 87 and 94 respectively observations that have also hampered the results.
7 BIBLIOGRAPHY
A number of websites, newspaper article annual reports of RBI, magazines etc. 7.1 Internet sites: a) www.rbi.org.in/home.aspx b) www.google.com c) www.fdimagazine.com d) www.members.aol.com/RTMadaan1/sectors e) http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_fdi_index.htm f) www.nseindia.com g) www.sebi.gov.in 7.2 Journals : a) ICFAI Journal: E.g. the ICFAI journal of public finance, issue- February, vol. VI. b) Handbook of statistics on the Indian securities market 2008. 7.3 Books: a) Foreign direct investment in India by Lata Chakravarthy. b) FDI (issues in emerging economies) by K. Seethe Pathi. c) Foreign institutional investors by G Gopal Krishna Murthy.
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