Improving Access To Family Planning Can Promote Food Security in The Face of Ethiopia's Changing Climate

Improving Access to Family Planning Can Promote Food Security in the Face of Ethiopias Changing Climate
Study Summary: Modeling Food Security, Population Growth and Climate Change
March 2012
Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural yields in Ethiopia Already, 60% of Ethiopians have insufficient food consumption Almost 30% of children under five years of age are underweight Continued rapid population growth will add to the challenge of food insecurity
Photo by Oxfam
Evaluation PRH
Climate change is resulting in rising temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns that are expected to decrease agricultural productivity in Ethiopia. Currently, many parts of the country are facing acute food insecurity. Rapid population growth will add to this challenge. Ensuring sufficient food for Ethiopias growing population will require new strategies to boost agricultural yields, and to sustain progress in improving access to nutritious foods for Ethiopias poorest and most affected populations. New research demonstrates that slower population growth, achievable by addressing womens needs for family planning, can also play a significant role in adapting to climate change and promoting future food security in Ethiopia.1
A recent assessment indicates that much of Ethiopia today is facing serious food insecurity (see Figure 1). In general, food consumption is lower among the poor, those with smaller agricultural plots, and those living in large families. The average daily per capita calorie requirement needed to maintain the health of the population in Ethiopia is approximately 2,200. Currently, 60% of the population consumes fewer calories than this daily physiological requirement.2 The average daily per capita calorie consumption is about 1,980 a shortfall of about 220 calories per day, on average, compared with internationally recommended norms. Approximately 7.8 million Ethiopians received food assistance in 2009/10 through the Productive Safety Nets Programme.
Food Insecurity and Climate Change in Ethiopia
Figure 1: Food Insecurity in Ethiopia

Eritrea
Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: None or Minimal 2: Stressed 3: Crisis 4: Emergency 5: Catastrophe/Famine
Sudan
Mekele Gonder Dese
Debre Markos Nekemte Gore Jima Addis Ababa Asela Awasa Goba Harar
South Sudan
Arba Minch
Somalia
Dolo Ado Camp

Uganda Kenya
Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS.NET), January, 2012 Photo by Ellen Smith
Feeding a family is a challenge for women. Food prices often increase and sometimes we dont have enough to eat, especially when there is a shortage of rainfall. Female farmer, SNNPR
Ethiopia is being affected by climate change like other countries in Africa. Food insecurity is exacerbated by climate change. There is growing evidence that agricultural yields around the world are threatened by rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and other effects of climate change. It is estimated, for example, that due to climate change, maize yields in East Africa may be 22% lower by 2030 than would otherwise occur3. Climate change will affect agricultural yields, trade, and food prices in ways that are likely to dramatically reduce food consumption in Ethiopia. New research suggests that by 2050, under conditions of a medium fertility population growth scenario, Ethiopia will experience an average food consumption shortfall of more than 500 calories per person per day. If there were no climate change, the shortfall would be only around 130 calories per person per day in 2050 (see Figure 2 ).
Population Growth
Ethiopias population has grown rapidly in recent years, from 40 million in 1984 to approximately 82 million in 2011. Future population growth will depend in large part on changes in fertilitythe average number of children per woman. Scenarios of future population growth are shown in Figure 3 below. In the medium fertility scenario, in which fertility in Ethiopia declines slowly from an average of 4.8 children per woman today to 2.3 children per woman in 2050, the population would reach 194 million.
Figure 3: Ethiopias future population under two scenarios

250 200 Millions of People 150 100 50 0 2010 Low fertility scenario 194 154
Medium fertility scenario
Figure 2: Climate change will affect food consumption in Ethiopia

2,500 506 kcal per person per day shortfall in 2050 Food requirements Food consumption without climate change Food consumption with climate change
Daily Kilocalories per Person
2,000
2020
2030
2040
2050
1,500
Source: Authors calculations
1,000
In the low fertility scenario, fertility declines to 1.8 by 2050, resulting in a population of 154 million. Such fertility declines are feasible, given that currently, 25% of married women in Ethiopia report that they either want no more children or want to wait two years before having another child, but are not using contraception.4 The fertility declines of both scenarios would require expanded use of family planning services throughout Ethiopia. The use of family planning among married women in Ethiopia has grown significantly in recent yearsnearly doubling from 15% in 2005 to 29% in 2011which coincided with expanded efforts of the Ethiopian government to reach women with family planning information and services through the Health Extension Workers program.
500
0 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Population and Food Security
Millions of Underweight Children <5
Slowing population growth can help to attenuate the food insecurity that will be brought on by climate change. Under a low fertility population growth scenario, the daily shortfall in calories per person under conditions of climate change would be reduced from 500 with medium fertility to an average of 127 calories per person per day, nearly canceling out the effects of climate change (see Figure 4). This will improve prospects for climate change adaptation and food security efforts to bridge the gap in meeting the food requirements of the poorest and most vulnerable.
Figure 5: Lowering fertility can reduce child malnutrition

Number of malnourished children in 2050
2.5 2.02 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.54 0.98
Figure 4: Lower fertiity would help to reduce per capita calorie shortfall in Ethiopia
2,500 127 kcal per person per day shortfall in 2050 Food requirements Food consumption with climate change low feritlity scenario
No Climate Change, Climate Change, Medium Fertility Medium Fertility Scenario Scenario
Climate Change, Low Fertility Scenario
Daily Kilocalories per Person
2,000
What Can Be Done
1,500
1,000
500
Ministries, organizations, and donors should consider population trends and family planning needs in their climate change and food security plans and programs. Family planning should be incorporated as a climate change adaptation strategy and an option that Ethiopia may wish to pursue is to access and seek international climate change adaptation funds for family planning.
2050
0 2010
2020
2030
2040
The low fertility population growth scenario would also result in reducing malnutrition in children under five years of age in the future. Given the effects of climate change on food availability, by 2050 there would be 51% fewer underweight children in the low fertility population growth scenario than in the medium fertility population growth scenario (see Figure 5).
Ethiopias Growth and Transformation Plan provides strategic direction and guidance in the critical areas of food security, population, and climate changeincluding the goal of increasing contraceptive use to 65% of married women by 2015. This goal would not only help to achieve the low fertility population growth scenario, but would also dramatically improve the health and wellbeing of women and children throughout Ethiopia. An integrated approach to addressing these interlinked challengessuch as the population, health, environment (PHE) approachholds promise for meaningful progress. Integrated programs include complementary interventions to address livelihoods, environmental stewardship, health and family planning, gender equity, and youth empowerment.
1 2
Scott Moreland and Ellen Smith, Modeling Climate Change, Food Security and Population, Chapel Hill: NC, MEASURE Evaluation PRH, February, 2012. Authors calculations based on IFPRI 2009 Ethiopia Rural Household Survey data. 3 Bailey, Robert, Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a Resource-Constrained World, Figure 11, Oxfam International, June 2011. 4 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2011: Preliminary Report, Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; and MEASURE DHS, ICF Macro, Calverton, Maryland, USA.
For further information please contact: Scott Moreland, Futures Group, smoreland@futuresgroup.com
MEASURE Evaluation PRH is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through cooperative agreement associate award number GPO-A-00-09-00003-00 and is implemented by the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in partnership with Futures Group, Management Sciences for Health, and Tulane University. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. government.

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Improving Access to Family Planning Can Promote Food Security in the Face of Ethiopias Changing Climate

Food Insecurity and Climate Change in Ethiopia

Figure 1: Food Insecurity in Ethiopia

Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Mekele Gonder Dese

Dolo Ado Camp

Figure 3: Ethiopias future population under two scenarios

Medium fertility scenario

Figure 2: Climate change will affect food consumption in Ethiopia

Daily Kilocalories per Person

Source: Authors calculations

Source: Authors calculations

Population and Food Security

Millions of Underweight Children <5

Figure 5: Lowering fertility can reduce child malnutrition

Climate Change, Low Fertility Scenario

Daily Kilocalories per Person

Source: Authors calculations

What Can Be Done

Source: Authors calculations

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