Economy - Overview
Economy - Overview
Economy - Overview
of its heavy reliance on domestic consumption as the driver of economic growth. Although the economy slowed significantly in 2009 from the 6%plus growth rate recorded in 2007 and 2008, by 2010 growth returned to a 6% rate. During the recession, Indonesia outperformed its regional neighbors and joined China and India as the only G20 members posting growth. The government made economic advances under the first administration of President YUDHOYONO, introducing significant reforms in the financial sector, including tax and customs reforms, the use of Treasury bills, and capital market development and supervision. Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years has declined steadily because of increasingly robust GDP growth and sound fiscal stewardship. Indonesia still struggles with poverty and unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, a complex regulatory environment, and unequal resource distribution among regions. YUDHOYONO's reelection, with respected economist BOEDIONO as his vice president, suggests broad continuity of economic policy, although the start of their term has been marred by corruption scandals and the departure of an internationally respected finance minister. The government in 2010 faces the ongoing challenge of improving Indonesia's insufficient infrastructure to remove impediments to economic growth, while addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation needs, particularly with regard to conserving Indonesia's forests and peatlands, the focus of a potentially trailblazing $1 billion REDD+ pilot project. GDP (purchasing power parity): $1.033 trillion (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 16 $974.6 billion (2009 est.) $932.6 billion (2008 est.) note: data are in 2010 US dollars GDP (official exchange rate): $695.1 billion (2009 est.) GDP - real growth rate: 6% (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 39 4.5% (2009 est.) 6% (2008 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP): $4,300 (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 157 $4,100 (2009 est.) $3,900 (2008 est.) note: data are in 2010 US dollars GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 14.9%
industry: 46.8% services: 38.3% (2009 est.) Labor force: 114.9 million (2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 5 Labor force - by occupation: agriculture: 42.1% industry: 18.6% services: 39.3% (2005 est.) Unemployment rate: 7.1% (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 74 8.1% (2009 est.) Population below poverty line: 13.3% (2006) Household income or consumption by percentage share: lowest 10%: 3% highest 10%: 32.3% (2006) Distribution of family income - Gini index: 39.4 (2005) country comparison to the world: 66 37 (2001) Investment (gross fixed): 30.8% of GDP (2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 14 Budget: revenues: $117.2 billion expenditures: $127.4 billion (2009 est.) Public debt: 26.4% of GDP (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 91 27.4% of GDP (2009 est.) Inflation rate (consumer prices): 5.2% (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 148 4.8% (2009 est.)
Central bank discount rate: 6.46% (31 December 2009) country comparison to the world: 40 10.83% (31 December 2008) Commercial bank prime lending rate: 14.5% (31 December 2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 57 13.6% (31 December 2008 est.) Stock of narrow money: $65.47 billion (31 December 2010 est) $49.63 billion (31 December 2009 est) Stock of broad money: $276.8 billion (31 December 2010 est.) $205.8 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Stock of domestic credit: $253.1 billion (31 December 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 37 $192.3 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Market value of publicly traded shares: $178.2 billion (31 December 2009) country comparison to the world: 36 $98.76 billion (31 December 2008) $211.7 billion (31 December 2007) Agriculture - products: rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs Industries: petroleum and natural gas, textiles, apparel, footwear, mining, cement, chemical fertilizers, plywood, rubber, food, tourism Industrial production growth rate: 4% (2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 85 Electricity - production: 134.4 billion kWh (2007 est.) country comparison to the world: 27 Electricity - consumption: 119.3 billion kWh (2007 est.)
country comparison to the world: 28 Electricity - exports: 0 kWh (2008 est.) Electricity - imports: 0 kWh (2008 est.) Oil - production: 1.023 million bbl/day (2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 22 Oil - consumption: 1.115 million bbl/day (2009 est.) country comparison to the world: 18 Oil - exports: 85,000 bbl/day (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 69 Oil - imports: 671,000 bbl/day (2007 est.) country comparison to the world: 20 Oil - proved reserves: 4.05 billion bbl (1 January 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 28 Natural gas - production: 70 billion cu m (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 12 Natural gas - consumption: 36.5 billion cu m (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 23 Natural gas - exports: 33.5 billion cu m (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 7 Natural gas - imports: 0 cu m (2008 est.) country comparison to the world: 174 Natural gas - proved reserves: 3.001 trillion cu m (1 January 2010 est.)
country comparison to the world: 14 Current account balance: $8.532 billion (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 25 $10.75 billion (2009 est.) Exports: $146.3 billion (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 30 $119.5 billion (2009 est.) Exports - commodities: oil and gas, electrical appliances, plywood, textiles, rubber Exports - partners: Japan 17.28%, Singapore 11.29%, US 10.81%, China 7.62%, South Korea 5.53%, India 4.35%, Taiwan 4.11%, Malaysia 4.07% (2009) Imports: $111.1 billion (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 30 $84.35 billion (2009 est.) Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, chemicals, fuels, foodstuffs Imports - partners: Singapore 24.96%, China 12.52%, Japan 8.92%, Malaysia 5.88%, South Korea 5.64%, US 4.88%, Thailand 4.45% (2009) Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $83.58 billion (31 December 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 16 $66.12 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Debt - external: $155.9 billion (31 December 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 30 $156.7 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Stock of direct foreign investment - at home: $81.21 billion (31 December 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 41 $72.84 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:
$33.71 billion (31 December 2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 36 $30.18 billion (31 December 2009 est.) Exchange rates: Indonesian rupiah (IDR) per US dollar - 9,169.5 (2010), 10,389.9 (2009), 9,698.9 (2008), 9,143 (2007), 9,159.3 (2006)
After an average annual rate of between 5% and 7% during a long-term growth in the last two decades, Indonesia has been hard hit during the recent wave of the Asian monetary crisis. With an economic growth of 4.7% in 1997, the 1998/99 State Budget envisages a minus 12% economic growth with an inflation of 66%, which gradually developed into an economic crisis. The country's economic order and national financial institutions proved unable to with-stand the violent tremors against the nation's economic foundations. It is no exaggeration to say that the achievements of the national development of the last three decades have been wiped out by a crisis that took place for only several months, and worsened when the local currency lost its value. The Government was, in fact, caught by surprise with the unbelievable large private sector debts which had accumulated in the last five years. The Central Bureau of Statistics predicted that the country's GDP would shrink by 10.1% this year based on 1993 constant prices. The construction sector was the worst hit by the recession, contracting by 27.16%. The manufacturing sector followed with 18.58%, hotels and restaurants 14.38%, financial services 11.1%, mining 9.65%, other services 3.7% and transportation and communication 2.5%. Only agriculture and utilities (electricity, gas and clean water) booked a positive growth during the first quarter of 1998, respectively by 28.47% and 7.1%. It is also reported that the country's month-by-month inflation rate rose 05.24% in May, bringing the total increase in the consumer price index to 40.06% in the first five months of 1998. Inflation is predicted to reach 80% to 85% this year. The main driver of inflation during the first five months of this year was the prolonged monetary crisis, compounded by bad farm harvests and increasing fuel prices. Food prices rose by 3.90%, processed food and cigarette prices 4.00%, housing prices increased 4.14%, clothing 4.53%, health 2.4%, education and recreation 1.41%, transportation and communication 17.25%. In international trade Indonesia noted a surplus of US$5.09 billion during the first quarter of this year, with exports reaching US$12.29 billion and imports US$7.2 billion. Exports declined by 0.9% during the same period to US$12.19 billion, with non-oil exports rising 9.5% to US$10.02 billion and oil and gas exports falling 30.17% to US$2.27 billion. In 1997/98 the country's total exports reached US$56.2
billion with non-oil exports accounting for US$45.9 billion and oil and gas exports US$10.2 billion. At the same time imports accounted for US$38.6 billion and oil and gas imports US$4.1 billion. To recover the deteriorating economic situation the Indonesian Government has launched and implemented all economic reform programs, including a 50-point program of reforms and its extended arrangement as agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that offered US$43 billion in loans. In addition, it also adopted a strategy to: (1) stabilize the rupiah at a level more in line with the underlying strength of the Indonesian economy, including a tight monetary policy, (II) strengthen and accelerate its strategy for restructuring the banking system; (III) strengthen implementation of the structural reforms that will create the foundations for a more efficient and competitive economy; (IV) provide a framework for comprehensively addressing the debt problems of private corporations; and (V) restore trade financing to a normal basis, allowing domestic production and especially the export sector to recover. It is expected that the Government's bold policy program will be reinforced by financial support from the international community, including trade financing and the provision of food and medical aid. Furthermore, another agreement was signed with the IMF, the fourth in nine months of 1998, promising yet more reforms in a bid to arrest the country's economic turmoil. The latest letter of intent is far less restrictive than previous ones, allowing the government to maintain subsidies for food, fuel, electricity and other spending on "social safety net" programs to help the poor cope with the crisis. The high interest rate policy will be continued to ensure the quick reduction of inflation and the strengthening of the rupiah.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The balance of payments in fiscal year 1997/98 was heavily affected by the outflow of net capital and the increase of debt-service requirements. Indonesia's total exports in fiscal year 1997/98 was US$ 56.2 billion, growing only 7.9% compared to that of the previous fiscal year. Non-oil and gas exports accounted for $45.9 billion, or an increase of 17.0%; and oil and gas exports Rp 10.2 billion, down by 19.8% due to the decreasing world demand and oil prices on the international market. The contribution of non-oil and gas to the country's total export rose by 81.8% in fiscal year 1997/98 from 75.5% in fiscal year 1997/98. At the same time, its total imports was US$42.7 billion, or down by 6.8%. The decrease was chiefly caused by the slowing down of demand for imported goods during the current economic crisis. Non-oil and gas imports decreased by 6.1% to US$38.6 billion, and oil and gas imports by 13.0% to US$4.1 billion.
Net foreign exchange spending for services increased slightly to US$15.2 billion in fiscal year 1997/98 from US$14.3 billion in fiscal year 1996/97. The growing transaction deficit for services was attributed to transaction deficit for oil and gas services which increased by US$1.1 billion. Meanwhile, inflow of net capital noted a substantial deficit of US$7.6 billion in 1997/98. It was chiefly caused by the outflow of private net capital that noted a deficit of US$11.8 billion in 1997/98 along with the slowing down of the country's economic performance. Encouragingly, the inflow of government net capital noted a surplus of US$ 4.2 billion. All developments mentioned above have caused the country's foreign exchange reserves to decrease sharply to US$16.6 billion (account based on Gross Foreign Assets), making it capable of financing imports for 4.6 months.
Foreign Reserves (in million dollars) July 24 Gross foreign assets Liquid reserves* Other reserves ** Gross foreign liabilities Net forward positions Reserve against foreign currency deposits Net international reserves 19,536.6 ------4,896.4 0.0 July 31 19,527.4 ------4,896.4 0,0 August 7 19,403.3 ------4,896.4 0.0
422.2
433.3
425.4
14,218.0
14,197.7
14,081.5
* Liquid gross foreign assets include gold, foreign securities, offshore deposits and special drawing rights. ** Other gross foreign assets include export drafts, deposits in the branches of domestic banks in offshore and deposits parked at foreign banks to guarantee letters of credit.
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
Due to the sharp depreciation of the rupiah, rising inflation and lower international oil price that caused the weakening of the country's economic performance, the Indonesian Government had to revise its budget twice from the original budget issued early January. The final revised version of the 1998/99 State Budget is expected to accommodate further economic deterioration and a huge subsidy commitment. Finalized after consultations with the IMF, the new budget estimates an average exchange rate for the rupiah at Rp 10,600 to the dollar over the fiscal year. The oil price assumption is set at US$13 per barrel. The total budget for 1998/99 is enlarged to Rp 227.1 trillion, an 88.2% increase from the January version of Rp142.7 trillion. The bulk of the budget is aimed at financing the social safety net to help the poor in surviving the crisis and debt repayment.
REVENUES
Revenues from the non-oil and gas sector is envisaged at Rp 99.6 trillion, primarily on the back of larger tax revenues from the export of crude palm oil (CPO). Revenue from oil and gas is expected at Rp 49.71 trillion. It is worth noting that Indonesia is a major oil exporter. Meanwhile foreign aid revenue is envisaged at Rp 127.8 billion.
EXPENDITURES
Government spending is divided into two broad categories in the budget; routine expenditures and development expenditures. Routine expenditure is envisaged at Rp 61.6 trillion, up from the previous Rp 12.3 trillion due to a rise in the fuel subsidy and to anticipate increasing subsidies for basic food items. In fiscal year 1997/98 routine expenditure was earmarked for Rp 84,606.2 billion. Development expenditure, meanwhile, is allocated Rp 92.68 trillion, up from the earlier amount of Rp 71.6 trillion.
DEBT
Indonesia's total external debt outstanding at the end of March 1998 was US$138.018 billion up from US$108.7 billion at the end of March 1997.
The total amount of government external debt outstanding, at the same time, amounted to US$54.159 billion and private debt outstanding US$83.859 billion. The decline in the rupiah's value by almost 80% since July 1997 had caused the value of the country's overseas private-sector debt, in particular, to sky-rocket. To deal with the debt problems the Government established the Indonesia Debt Restructuring Agency (INDRA). In the 1998/99 budget, the Government allocated Rp 94.5 trillion for government debt repayment and Rp 77.55 trillion for foreign debt servicing, including about Rp 46.51 trillion for principal repayment and more than Rp 31 trillion for interest payment. Revised Balanceof Payments Projections 1998/1999 (in billion US Dollars) OLD Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Trade balance Services Current Account balance Capital flow Government receipts Government debt payments Other Capital Account balance Overall balance 60.6 42.4 18.2 15.5 2.6 9.1 - 4.9 - 5.6 - 1.4 1.1 NEW 56.5 - 37.9 18.6 17.2 1.4 19.4 - 4.2 11.3 3.9 5.3
Note: Some figures don't add up due to rounding up. Source: From Minister of Finance's Statement at the House of Representatives, July 16, 1998
exchange system, say, for example, only foreign exchange banks are authorized to execute foreign exchange transaction related to the import and export goods. Money in supply or narrow money (MI) grew at an annual average of 26.9%, from Rp 37.9 trillion in March 1994 to Rp 98.3 trillion in March 1998. During fiscal year 1997/98 alone it increased sharply by 54.6%. Meanwhile, liquidity or broad money (M2) swelled by 31.9% on average per year. In fiscal year 1997/98 broad money grew by 52.7% due largely to the decrease of rupiah exchange rate.
2000. The previous CAR requirements were 8% by the end of 1998, 10% by the end of 1999 and 12% by the end of 2000. More sweeping taken by the Government was to suspend the operation of seven ailing banks, take over the management of seven additional banks deemed to be unsound under the IBRA, and placing 40 banks (including three state-owned banks and 11 provincial development banks) under its supervision. It is expected that by consolidating more banks under IBRA, the government could merge their operations under its control and reduce them to a manageable number. The last positive move taken by the government to freeze, merge and nationalize 11 of the country's weakest banks was lauded by the IMF. The move, which included nationalizing the country's highest private bank, Bank Central Asia (BCA)- has been the clearest sign so far that the government through IBRA is ready to take tough measures. Meanwhile, four state banks merged into Bank Mandiri, were Bank Exim, Bank Bumi Daya, Bank Dagang Negara and Bapindo. The government would also submit to parliament a law eliminating existing restrictions on foreign ownership of banks.
BANK INDONESIA
Bank Indonesia is the country's central bank. Pursuant to the Central Bank Act of 1968, its major functions are to issue currency, devise and implement the monetary policy, act as the government's banker, and supervise and regulate financial institutions. Thus, it is the sole issuer of the country's currency, i.e. the rupiah. It holds the official international reserves of the economy. It regulates the liquidity position of banks by adjusting the minimum liquidity ratio and the minimum reserve requirements that all deposit-money banks are required to maintain. It is the banker of last resort in the domestic banking system. Bank Indonesia is also in charge of preparing and implementing the monetary policy under the direction of the Economic Stabilization Council, a government advisory body presided over by the President. Directly responsible to the Government, BI is supervised by a commissioner appointed by the president, and is required to submit annual and supplemental budgets to the government for approval. The governor of the banks and his seven managing directors are appointed by the President for a five year tenure.
the largest of the banks in terms of assistance, and BRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia), since BDN (Bank Dagang Negara), BBD (Bank Bumi Daya) and Bank Exim (Bank Eskpor and Import) have been merged into Bank Mandiri. In addition the country has also a savings bank, Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) and Bapindo (also merged into Bank Mandiri) and 27 Regional Development Banks, with thousands of bank offices.
The modern era of investment in the country was introduced with the enactment of the Foreign Investment Act of 1967 amended by Act No. 11 of 1970), and the passage of Domestic Investment Act of 1968 (amended by Act No. 12 of 1970). In accordance with the economic reform and restructure the Government issued Regulation No. 16, 1998 (amended Regulation No. 2, 1996) concerning Foreign Investment Companies in Export and Import activities. This act gives more opportunities to foreign investment companies to take part as distributor or retailer in national import-export. Higher production, improved industrial structure, new employment opportunities, equitable distribution of income, utilization of human and natural resources, promotion of exports, and environmental conservation are set to be the country's basic investment goals. Parallel with these, policies on investments put more emphasis on industries that produce capital goods, intermediate products and raw materials needed to establish a strong foundation for accelerating the industrial growth. Special priority has been given to investments outside Java, particularly the country's eastern part which includes Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusatenggara, East Timor, Maluku and Irian Jaya in efforts to promote a more even distribution of investments and simultaneously to boost economic activities in those less-developed regions. Keen interest on investment in Indonesia can be seen from the high growth of investment realization. In 1995, for instance, the formation of gross domestic product permanent capital was 13.8 percent, while it was 14.5 percent in 1996. Nevertheless, due to the economic crisis, investment value in 1998 is estimated to decrease sharply. The approved projects of foreign and domestic investment in fiscal year 1997/98 were expected to create jobs for 682,000 people.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
To invest in Indonesia, foreign investors should first look at the so-called "Negative List of Investment" (DNI) that contains the business sectors absolutely closed and still regulated for investment entries. The regulated sectors in this case can be entered by investors if certain requirements are satisfied, such as export-oriented projects, partnership with state owned companies, technology transfer, cooperation with small-scale business holders, etc. Foreign companies can invest and operate in Indonesia either independently or in joint-ventures with local partners with the approval of the government for a maximum period of 30 years (extendable). In fiscal year 1997/98 approved foreign investments from Asia and Europe accounted for 4.3 percent and 35 percent respectively.
Some 59.1 percent of the total foreign investment value went to the processing industry sector such as chemicals, food, and non-steel minerals. In fiscal year 1997/98 the province of West Java, Jakarta, Riau, and East Java dominated investments by 28.5 percent, 21 percent, 18.9 percent, and 12.4 percent respectively.
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
By sector, the processing industry was still dominant by accounting for some 59.0 percent of the total approved domestic investment in fiscal year 1997/98. Meanwhile by location, West and East Java accounted for some 31.9 percent and 11.0 percent respectively of the total domestic investment value during fiscal year 1997/1998.
COOPERATIVES
Cooperatives which developed in almost all regions of Indonesia have become business institutions which strengthen the people's economy and increased the welfare of the members and the surrounding area. About 4,700 cooperatives have developed middle and big-scale businesses with a value of over Rp1 billion per year. Development policies of cooperatives are realized through the following programs:
EXPANSION OF COOPERATIVES
This program promotes services to members, such as business promotion, information on business opportunities and marketing, develop a marketing network, trade missions, provide marketing facilities and infrastructure, give guidance and market consultation, as well as intensification of the distribution system. Until 1997/98, marketing facilities and infrastructure, especially in the least developed areas, in the form of small shop selling complete daily necessities (waserba) grew to 21,000 units. In 1997/98, the number of cooperatives which manage waserba and cooperative savings was 20,952 units. In cooperation with PLN (the State-owned Electricity Company), in 1997/98, 4,001 cooperatives were active in marketing electricity services in the villages or an increase of 9.4% compared to that in the previous year to 15,534,000 houses in 36,006 villages or an increase of 17.2% and 25.8% compared to that in 1996/97.
COOPERATION AND EXPANSION OF COOPERATIVE UNDERTAKINGS This program is aimed at enhancing the activities of cooperatives effectively and efficiently, both in the institution and business aspects. The program covers the
cooperative undertaking network (JUK) which is developed through distribution and marketing, partnership between cooperatives with the private sector and with stateowned companies (BUMN), as well as through the sale of shares in private companies to cooperatives. In the framework of enhancing participation of big regional entrepreneurs, the national partnership program began to extend their scope into some districts. Until 1997, the number of cooperatives and small entrepreneurs which participated in this program was 15,900 units, and 27,900 people respectively with a value of Rp1.6 trillion. In 1997/98, some 221 private companies had sold 168.1 million of their shares with a value of Rp135.5 billion to 3,506 cooperatives.
COOPERATIVES DEVELOPMENT IN LEAST DEVELOPED AREAS This program is meant to increase the quality of services to cooperative members and the community in the least developed areas. Until 1997/98, 1,636 TPK-KUDs (Place of Cooperatives Services-Village Unit Cooperatives) have been built, 2,353 shops selling complete daily necessities (waserba) managed by KUDs and supported by professional self-supporting workers (TKMP).