Sib 4Q Fy 2013
Sib 4Q Fy 2013
Sib 4Q Fy 2013
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (5.4) (12.4) 19.9 4QFY12 285 163 122 % chg (yoy) 17.3 26.4 26.1
`25 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
South Indian Bank (SIB) reported modest set of numbers for the quarter, as their earnings at PBT level declined by 7.0% yoy, however, aided by tax-write back (of `14cr for the quarter, as against tax expense of `29cr for 4QFY2012), the bank posted Net profit growth of 26.1%. NIMs stable; Asset quality witnesses pressures: During 4QFY2013, the banks business growth remained healthy, with advances growing by 16.6% yoy and deposits growing by 21.3% yoy. Despite healthy 20.9% yoy growth in current deposits, the growth in overall CASA deposits came in at 14.4% yoy, due to relatively lower 13.0% yoy growth on the savings deposits front. CASA ratio moderated by 112bp yoy and 199bp qoq to 18.6% yoy. Reported NIMs for FY2013 remained stable at 3.2%. Going ahead, the management expects NIMs to come down by 10bp over next few quarters. During 4QFY2013, the bank registered a strong performance on the non-interest income (excl. treasury) front, with a growth of 45.8% yoy to `107cr, which was aided largely by strong 41.4% yoy growth in fee income. During the quarter, the bank faced asset quality pressures, as annualized slippage ratio spiked to 2.2%, as against annualized slippage ratio of 0.8% in 3QFY2013. Recoveries/upgrades also came in lower at `47cr as compared to `73cr in last quarter. Despite sequentially higher slippages and lower recovery/upgrades, Gross NPA levels, on an absolute basis declined by 8.6%, on back of higher write-offs. PCR for the bank dipped sharply by 1,608bp, while Net NPA levels jumped up by 26.9% qoq. The bank added ~`293cr to its restructured book in 4QFY2013, thereby taking its restructured book to `1,641cr. Outlook and valuation: After witnessing improvement during the last quarter, the asset quality for the bank has again witnessed pressures. Aggressive yields on non-gold loan portfolio (78% of total) and significant gold price correction on gold loan book (22% of total), could further increase provisioning expenses and hence provide downside risk to the banks ROA. The stock currently trades at valuations of 0.9x FY2015E ABV. We recommend Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 12.3 46.2 41.5
3m 3.1 (10.1)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
FY2012 1,022 29.2 402 37.3 2.9 3.5 6.8 1.3 1.1 21.6
FY2013 1,281 25.4 502 25.0 2.9 3.8 6.4 1.2 1.1 20.6
FY2014E 1,513 18.1 560 11.5 2.9 4.2 5.7 1.0 1.0 18.2
FY2015E 1,719 13.7 602 7.6 2.8 4.5 5.3 0.9 1.0 17.0
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com Akshay Narang 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 akshay.narang@angelbroking.com Harshal Patkar 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 1,165 943 197 25 832 334 121 107 95 14 12 455 249 163 86 206 66 42 10 15 (1) 140 (14) 154 (9.7)
3QFY13 1,128 924 183 21 775 353 66 53 50 13 3 419 183 108 75 235 45 26 2 10 8 190 62 128 32.5
% chg (qoq) 3.3 2.1 7.5 22.5 7.3 (5.4) 82.8 102.5 92.2 4.1 252.8 8.6 35.5 50.4 14.2 (12.4) 44.8 61.8 548.7 57.8 (26.2) (122.1) 19.9 -
4QFY12 994 803 164 26 709 285 83 74 67 9 6 367 204 128 76 163 12 14 (10) 12 (3) 151 29 122 19.1
% chg (yoy) 17.3 17.4 19.9 (3.9) 17.3 17.3 46.6 45.8 41.4 53.5 93.3 23.9 21.8 27.0 13.0 26.4 434.4 192.8 33.9 (7.0) (147.4) 26.1 -
FY2013 4,434 3,576 746 112 3,153 1,281 335 277 50 58 227 1,616 767 473 295 849 193 142 11 33 6 656 154 502 23.4
FY2012 3,583 2,868 621 94 2,562 1,022 247 206 38 41 168 1,269 617 374 243 652 79 25 14 40 0 572 171 402 29.8
% chg (yoy) 23.7 24.7 20.2 18.8 23.1 25.4 35.6 34.4 30.6 41.6 35.2 27.3 24.3 26.3 21.2 30.2 143.4 468.7 (20.2) (18.1) 14.6 (10.0) 25.1 -
% chg (8.6) 33.2 (0.3) 20.0 (17.1) 39.4 (30.4) (120.8) 13.1
4QFY13 31,816 44,262 71.9 1,526 6,685 8,211 18.6 13.9 12.1 8.3 12.7 3.2 54.7
3QFY13 29,039 38,940 74.6 1,500 6,500 8,000 20.5 13.9 11.8 8.3 12.8 3.2 43.8
% chg (qoq) 9.6 13.7 (269)bp 1.7 2.8 2.6 (199)bp 6bp 27bp 0bp (10)bp 0bp 1087bp
4QFY12 27,281 36,501 74.7 1,262 5,917 7,179 19.7 14.0 11.5 7.9 12.5 3.1 55.6
% chg (yoy) 16.6 21.3 (286)bp 20.9 13.0 14.4 (112)bp (9)bp 51bp 36bp 20bp 10bp (92)bp
Cost-to-income ratio
4QFY13 3QFY13 2QFY13 1QFY13 1,427 225 348 64 2,064 3,904 554 6,522 1,465 219 321 80 2,086 3,346 563 5,994 1,372 207 333 128 2,040 2,978 661 5,680 1,536 200 400 100 2,236 2,232 932 5,400
The banks overall priority sector lending stands at ~30.0%. The management plans to take it to 40% levels of its overall loan book by increasing focus on housing, Gold and Vehicle loan segment within the PSL loans. Gold loan portfolio for the bank stands at ~22% of overall loan book, of which (non PSL) has improved on a qoq basis and now stands at ~`6,372cr, whereas the Agri/PSL continued to decline steadily owing to stiff competition from PSU banks and now stands at ~`600cr, down from `1,000cr in previous quarter. Owing to the recent correction in Gold prices, the average LTV for the bank on its Gold loan portfolio has gone up to ~85% (as compared to origination LTV of ~70%). As per the management, none of its Gold loan book has LTV more than 95%.
33.1
22.8
23.5
17.5
20.6
16.5
17.5
15.1
16.6
5.0 -
21.3
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
3.15
12.8
12.7
496
475
69.0
58.6
434
267
295
51.2
242
197
77
1QFY13
95
42.5
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
250
2.1
54.0 48.0 42.0 36.0 30.0 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 44.2 46.1 43.8
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Investment arguments
Healthy business growth
The bank grew its advances and deposits at a healthy rate of 16.6% and 21.3% yoy, respectively, in FY2013. The gold loan portfolio of the bank has increased at 50.3% CAGR over FY200913. The gold loan portfolio now constitutes 22% of the overall loan book. The management indicated that they would like to maintain the gold loan portfolio at 22-25% levels of the overall loan book and hence would now increase focus on the corporate segment and to drive the banks loan book growth. The banks tier-1 ratio, post the capital raising (`440cr via QIP during 2QFY2013) stands at a healthy 12.1%, thereby giving enough headroom for the bank to grow at a healthy pace going ahead.
Earlier estimates FY2014E 20.0 20.0 18.0 3.0 2.4 16.0 16.0 1.5 64.8 FY2015E 20.0 20.0 17.0 2.9 16.1 15.0 15.0 1.5 66.4
Revised estimates FY2014E 20.0 16.0 17.7 2.9 (2.6) 15.0 12.5 1.5 57.3 FY2015E 20.0 16.0 17.3 2.8 14.1 14.0 12.5 1.4 62.7
Earlier Revised Var. (%) estimates estimates 1,514 1,513 (0.1) 312 1,826 842 984 169 815 277 538 326 1,839 875 964 164 800 240 560 4.6 0.7 3.9 (2.0) (2.9) (1.9) (13.4) 4.1
Earlier estimates 1,719 362 2,081 968 1,113 203 910 309 601
FY2015 Revised Var. (%) estimates 1,719 0.0 372 2,091 992 1,099 186 913 310 602 2.7 0.5 2.5 (1.3) (8.1) 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
South Indian Bank (SIB) is a small old generation private sector bank with ~85% of its branches in southern India (large base in Kerala). Like Federal Bank, SIB also has a large NRI customer base (approx. 15% of total deposits). Of late, the bank has aggressively started focusing on the gold loan portfolio - a highly profitable and secured loan segment. Gold loans accounted for ~22% of the bank's loan book as of FY2013.
9,400 12,523 33.1 378 671 23.0 16.6 396 724 23.3
10
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
12