27 May, 2010

JAEA Tono Katsuhiro Hama

Hydrangea

Contents
Mizunami URL Project (MIU Project) 1) Background of MIU 2) What is MIU ? 3) Construction progress 4) Phase I investigation 5) Phase II investigation 6) Phase III investigation 7) International collaboration
2

Expected outcome
By applying several investigation methods to the "real "geological environment, followings can be achieved * Feedback evaluation , by confirmation and revision of geological environmental model v by confirmation adequacy of investigation method adopted in previous phase # Evaluation of relationship between the characterization methods and degree of understanding of the geological environment * Synthesized investigation, analysis and assessment techniques for each site investigation phase on NUMO's siting process e Technical know-how (success I failure experiences) on related the techniques for investigation, analysis and assessment

Step-wise Investigation 00-

Construction
A

Operation

*Plan is subject to change

Geology of the Tono Area

JNC Tono C""TWnO MIN -

(Mbw O=Mc

molts)

Fault 1.4-1
F&Ai TUI&IyUN
-k

YaMad Fail Zon

(MO

4 TWOMI
M2Wkdb

in

TM OMAN
ro-MWf

. cs

26m

Simplified from Itolgawa (1980)

Strategy of R&D in MIU project

(1) Spatial scale
7 a,$w~~r.

(4) Iterative aRDroach

. .N
Uf

PhuelI

Nam~

bomb* km.W.k

CMSaddUNduu'~m bwodat. ftcw

C"s. D

Fz~

Spatial scale

Important factors to be charactaized and data requirements

Investigation concept
Phase I
Step 0

Phase I1.

I Step 2 i

Crosshole Underground facilit

Existing borehole I

Shallow borehole I

Deep borehole I

To understand GW chemistry in sedimentary rocks

Investigations in Phase I 1.Geological investigation 2.Hydrogeological investigations 3.Hydrochemical investigations

- Survey of existing information - Surface water/precipitation sampling/analysis - Groundwater samplingLanalysis - Bulk rock/mineral analysis - Geochemical modeling - Geostatistical analysis

4.Rock mechanical investigations

10

GW sampling procedure
Drilling fluid
+

Tracer

E1

:7
Ci
5000 10000

SO 3Na

NH 2
Extracted volume (L)

Tracer (Na-naphthionate)
11

lydrochemical conceptual model around MIU

after step3 (deep borehole investigation) investigation
i of MSB-2TShafts

12

Issues for Phase II investigation *Validation of the hydrochemical model constructed through the investigations in Phase I. *ldentification of the general processes and mechanisms involved in the changes in the hydrochemical environments in and around the MIU.

13

Step-wise Investigation

Bore hole!

ISurface-based
investigation

=Construction

[Operation]
*Plan is subject to change

14

Phase II Field Investigations

" " * * * * * Geological mapping Geophysical investigations (eg reverse VSP) Hydraulic investigations Monitoring (Inflow rate, pressure) GW samplinglanalysis Physicallmechanical tests Stress measurement

WAN

S" 0

|.

hJ. F

Water Level Change

15

Revision of Financial 2008 Plan

m Original Plan Sedimentary Overburden Unconformity...,

Granite "'

GL-1O0m

N Additional Plan (28 Aug ZOOS)

GL-200m
--------------------------------------

-300m Stage

-300m Measurement Niche off Ventilation Shaft V

GL-300m

-300m Access Gallery off Main Shaft V---

-300m

)
16

Why -300m Gallery?

* Producing certain outcome without delay to the disposal project and for safety regulations ... as assigned in Revised Basic Policy & Plan, Generic Programme etc * UHFD with larger inflow being suitable for studying countermeasures against inflow, solute transport etc ...based on the investigation results obtained to date Promoting mutual understanding of the final disposal by establishing an open facility ...as assigned in revised Basic Policy & Plan, General Framework etc

17

Step-wise Investigation

Borehole,/

Surface-based investigation
IW

L[

Construction

IOperation]
*Plan is subject to change

18

Planned Investigations

ESpecific location of investigation($ should be optimized by the geological

invetigations.

-Lower
00. Fault predicted lOOm

sparsely fractured domain

Upper highly fractured domain

International collaboration
KAERIJAEA collaboration

20

International collaboration
NagraIJAEA collaboration

21

More information of the MIU project is available on

http://www.jaea.go.jp/O4/tono/m iu_e
welcome to the MIU
Tow Geoeir"e CAtt (GC) Jew Aft*c Etwo A , (.AEA) has hea fasflng A.a wk*rangeofgeoaclatt reearh in artw OD tIo a trm c an td e ogmicW ha for One of moO rpMOS ofMe eongio geosdolft rueach prrar s tie d MWN Undeogrord Reach Labortn (MIU) Proect t tdeTomo arm cthal Ja .tTwo1.000m dem stla aft severaldrift wf be emawnaed forgeocedic reseach did a kahty of wighneer Iedrdqma wEheentfiated. JAEA has a carir cotgeosci reseamch at twokcabcne: the bocatorfor kwagodoa of ystalne rtok is tin Humiard Cy, Gtu Prefectore: the bloctr forhwskadon of rdimestay rockisat Homfw e Hoidai.

22

Addressing tectonic issues for siting a HLW repository in Japan

Junichi Goto
Site CharacterizationGroup Science and Technology Department Nuclear Waste Management Organizationof Japan (NUMO)

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

NUMO.I

Long-term predictability of tectonics in Japan

Fundamental structure of the present plate system was established at around 15 Ma It takes more than one million years for a plate system to change Present tectonic condition will not change for the next one hundred thousand years
-

Geological environment in Japan can be predicted over several tens of thousand years by extrapolating the past geological evidences

Deterministic approach can basically be applied for evaluation of tectonics

INI

15Ma: Termination of opening of the Japan Sea (rotation of the NE and SW Japan Arcs)

1.8Ma: Development of ISTL, start of activity of MTL, opening of Okinawa trough and lzuOgasawara back-arc basin

Present: Collision of the lzu-Peninsula and convergence of plates along the eastern margin of the Japan Sea

Sting Factors for earthquake and fault activity

PIAs should not include active faults
identified in the nationwide-scale maps, based on aerial photographs for inland areas and sonic prospecting for offshore.
"1:2,000,000 Active Fault Map of Japan" (2002)
--

ii

"Quatemary Structure Map of Japanese Waters"(2001)

PIAs should not include the following locations and zones identified by sitespecific literature surveys; a. Locations where active faults are identified in other literature information b. Crushed zones and surrounding deformation zones of active faults c. Potential Zones of branching, extension, new generation, reactivation of active faults d. Zones of active folds or flexures.
2

b.

uou*=.umtm

-'i

C.

ZX

Mm

d.
'AESM3U)UEO)Mt

Deterministic assessment for siting NPP

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

R&D on the remained issues:

) Evaluation of active fold/flexure zones > Evaluation of active fault zones ) Distribution of latent active faults Activity of faults intersected underground Earthquake ground motion underground
P~bb~si F ass f :tvt

yHypocenterN~:4 f~< J~ r~ope Earthquake ground motion underground

1000

'IT

Wave growth

H J/1n6yr
0

~- L
Shinjo,
Nilgata " +
.. *

0.1

-1L

......

Identification of relevant active fold zones

n'

in

Inn

ilnn L (km)

WIWI)
ll1t! Hz 8a

O5:.5

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

I I Exclusion zone * Flow chart for evaluation

* Model experiment using CT- scanner

Active fault zones

active foldlflexure

>10km conjugate geomet

echelon lineament analysis - lineament analysis
*

geophysical data "model experiments

other

"numerical modeling lineament analysis

along major fault on conjugate set

along major fault | at bent/stepped part

along major fault

r-

identification of active fault zone by surface trace and lineament distribution r identification of process zone by lineament distribution
5 km

o ------------------LS and early stage of P1I P1 (field investigation)

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

------------------ identification of deformation zone

* Flow chart for evaluation

Concept of lineament analysis

01nib ofJo* PJfl

Siting Factors for igneous activity

H 9-' 100

PIAs should not include the areas within a 15km radius from the center of the Quaternary volcanoes.
4.

= 0
U20

Ii

13

I 17

19

2t

23

25

27

48

"i4he catalogue of Qu.

"Maximum distance" between the center of a volcano and Its constituent edifices (kin)

PIAs should not include the areas that:

are definitely expected to have magmatic intrusion or eruption, or ) have significant thermal and hydrothermal effects, outside the 15km circle.
NRC Meeting 2 8 May 2 0 10 ' kkl

IUKM

U O) Nl E( E k , I i O U)

R&D on the remained issues: igneous activity

I I

(A
4%

A I

Thermal anomaly away from volcanic front

Large caldera eruption

Occurrence of new volcanoes (between volcanic clusters, monogenetic volcanoes) Migration of magma from existing volcanoes NRC Meeting
28 May 2010

Occurrence of large caldera eruptions ) Evaluation of thermal and hydrothermal effects Probabilistic assessment of
igneous activity

Occurrence of new volcanoes

Flow chart showing basic procedure for evaluating regions of future volcanism around the target area

I Evaluation on

a scale of island arc

0 Distribution, lithofacies, stratigraphy and ages of

igneous rocks *Tectonic evolution, etc

I
* Position of the volcanic front and its migration ) Trench side or back-arc side? * Continuity of subduction conditions (temporal changes in tectonics) Determination of the time range of evaluation
m
q

IEvaluation on scale of volcanic cluster I

* Distribution, lithofacies, stratigraphy of Igneous rocks " Radiometric age data * Chemical analysis data, etc * Toporaphical data * Distribution and temporal changes of fault movements * Distribution and temporal changes of uplift and subsidence * Gravity anomaly data, etc * Seismic velocity structure " Thermal structure of the crust, etc
NR( 28
9RIF

i
I

_ Spatio-temporal patterns in volcanism among volcanoes SRegularity or uneven distribution of volcanism J

I

"

*I Crustal structure and movement related to volcanIsm

Indicating concentration of volcanism Controlling volcanism e Evolution of hot regions within the mantle wedge @ ) Present state of the position and extent of low velocity anomalies ) Continuity of hot regions based on correlation with spatio-temporal patterns in volcanism
71 X -

I
o

I (oannl"iE

Ilmndal I

Occurrence of new volcanoes - case study EBeveonor

(modified from Hasegawa et al., 2004)

A
A

O.mew
A n

TheVokcancobW Soo-ty J.
Japan Meaololcl AQgecy(2003)

1999)

0:

Kondo.e

(2W4)

elevation > 500m volcanism since 5 Ma + uplift due to magmatism high likelihood of volcanism : velocity perturbation < -4% potential magmatism in the mantle need careful investigation

* E-W trending basement * Low-velocity anomalies topography within the mantle wedge NRCMwi, Key Phenomena related to volcano distribution 28 May 201 _

Q
mm*

Evaluation (example)

Migration of magma from existing volcanoes

Time (ky)

a
E0

on

Compressional
(ki)

-t --

>>

- 10

Extensional

0
oE

10A

.
O0RE

d
ii

'11

I04

Iky)

I
S

CLo
, i I

IHB E-1 E-2 Middle

stage

I1

L-1

L-2

Early stage

Late stage

* Relationship between preferred orientation of vein growth and stress distribution (Miura, et.al., 2006)

* Relationship between vent migration and volcanic features (Ishizuka, 1999)

* Orientation of vent alignment * Orientation of regional stress * In compressional regime: aHnmax " In extensional regime: uHmin \.6 Orientation of strike-slin fault

Indicator for preferred orientation

If more than one apply, magma tends to migrate

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

If more than one apply, the area is in a preferred orientation 1 of magma migration _=1

Siting Factors for uplif and erosion

Areas with clear evidences of uplift more than 300m during the last 100,000 years will be excluded from PIAs *Trend of future uplift can be estimated from analyses of existing terraces
*Long-term behavior of erosion is difficult to. estimate

Conservative evaluation : Uplift = Erosion

*Adequate disposal depth will make the effect of approaching waste to the surface due to uplift and erosion less significant *Final Disposal Act defines the disposal depth as 300m or greater

-U-

Ii

if

IExclusion criteria: Uplift more than 300m NRCI during the last 100,000 years
28 May 2U1U

Improved assessment of uplift/erosion

Investigation planning for: Distribution of terraces " Stratigraphy and age of terraces " Relative elevation (indicator of uplift) Distribution of uplift/subsidence " Initial model of uplift/erosion Uplift/subsidence " Surface mapping " Dating of geological formations " Dating of terraces " Borehole surveys * Trench surveys 1, Target of investigations * Amount and distribution of

Maximum erosion Geophysics " Borehole surveys " Dating of geological formations

River terrace

ILaplaciani < 0.5

* Correlation of river terraces using DEM data

500 400 .300 20

I Target of investigations - Maximum amount of erosion in the past

uplift/subsidence in the
pIenL

4,

Items of evaluation Amount and distribution of uplift/subsidence in the

IULUI
W

Items of evaluation
Maximum amount of

erosion in the future

0 30 20 01

model
Distance from sea (km)

Conformity, with favorable facto

* Detailed correlation of river terraces: difference in elevation =* consistent with fault displacement

* Flow chart for evaluation

Probabilistic tectonic hazard assessment

Step 1 Data gathering 2 5 4 " Area: 10 -- 10 km " Literature and database information (topography, geology, geophysics, volcanism active fault, uplift, GPS, seismicity)

41.
Step 2 Dataset preparation " Check contents and quality of data " Correction/addition for improvement

Step 3b

Data analyses on rock deformation

" Data processing: GPS, seismicity Expert surface deformation Is * Conceptual models, alternative model licitatie 1 -" Setting parameters and weights

-4

b Strain rate m g Step 6 Interfacingwith PA ; Event description (place, timing, duration, Step 4b Strain rate mapping * Conversion to strain rate: GPI extent, magnitude) a Description of impacting processes seismicity, surface deformation Assessmentin different timeframes " Mapping by Monte Carlo simulation " Differencing three maps

Repository cncept

sltst-vauto

vlain Step 7 Siting cofdne Hig: Low susetblity of haad.No need fo detaile PA anivestiaton

---NRC Meeting
28 May 2010

c Medium: Need detailed PA and further investigations for reducing uncertainties * Low: Need investigations for significant DecisIon-making on sitin improvement of uncertainties Step8 Requirement on data Data for reducing uncertainties improving siting confidence levels and Pl.ning Investigation A | rOlramm

Step 3a: Data analysis on volcanism

Grouping of volcanoes Geophysical data analysis
1390 140"
A

Conceptual modeling
Edil~e -oWISC.

1410

142"
Okm Su..so

dVs
412

-3 -10 km

SflaI-

,e0.o,

40-

UPIPERCRUST

392_

20 kmC-d --

LOWERiCRUST

382
30 kn
S-k00 Maho -

O->30km Pfologkoi Moho

372
h4AKTL

A Group 3A A Group3B A Group 3C

-6

-3 0 3 6 Velocity perturbation (%)

Hasegawa& Nakajima, 2004

Hot zone model

Volcano hazard increases in areas with geophysical features associated with magma fluxes

Cladistic analysis

Wed wntsir sb dmdt *a 'c*'d a adwss aiftrrftm bw-ve.Iocfyz mr

Step 4a: Probability maps of future volcanism

Probability (100 ka)
MEL-

Cox Process Method -J

Step 5: Probabilistic site assessment- volcanism -

P -

&Oxlo

0.04

Site14
0.0
0..0 .0
0

0.03

1 Sitel

Site 2

.
50

. 4
Bandwidth (kmn)

0 Bandwidth (kmn)
.

50

50

Bandwidth (km)
NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

probability

uncertainty

3b: Data ana

on rock deformation

GPS velocity gradient = mm/km/yr = strain rate

' \.,
.

Seismicity = seismic moment +

Kostrov equation = strain rate

Active Fault

NRC Meeting
28 May 2010

I /V '-. ' P" JU m_ Surface deformation (slip or tilting rate) = mm/km/yr = strain rate

Step 3b: Logic tree development

GPS logic tree for probabilistic strain map
=o# continuation of logic tree in the same way as the other models. All branches are not shown due to space constraints. TBA = Weightings to be decided on

... Weighting coefficients based on expert opinion

.. /

0.2 Uoalon-tike ,.lsubdctio couling

NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

uk"dolar

Step 4b: Probabilistic strain mapping

"Best-estimate" strain models
142' 139' 140' 141' 142'

41

41'

40'

40'

39'

39'

0 1lQ

141

141

149

lAQi

1400

141*

14V

38*

139

140*

141 *

142*

GPS
NRC Meeting 28 May 2010

Seismicity

Surface Deformation (active fault + tilting)

on..~

Step 5: Probabilistic site assessment - rock deformation Site I GPS

o3.25
}0.1/

Site
V

0.03

...

"

--

0.2

SURFDEF ---... RFDE

EQ WGTDAVI

SEIS

I /

Strain rate ('nanostrain' iyear.)

Site I Seismicity
C 1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

0 0
1 10 100 1000

Strain rate (nano strain / year)

*Cumulative plot (probability of exceedance) Site I

Strain rate (nano strain I year) GPS I -1 TILT II

0.00

Site I Surface Deformation

C 0.3.
0 .3 LD0.26 v
.S

SEIS 1-4--WGT 0
1 5

0.2
0.15

'C

0.1 0,0

20

40

60

80
l d m m

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49 53

57

61

65 65

73

77

81

85

89

Strain rate (nano strain / year)

NRC Meetin 2011 28 May

Strain rate (nstraintyr)

*Frequency (probability) histogram

*Uncertainties (1a) of strain rate

Conclusions
*it is considered that the PIAs and DIAs can be selected with a certain degree of confidence by applying the improved deterministic approach. *The probabilistic approach, which provides a quantitative measure for assessing tectonic hazards and inherent uncertainties, will complement the deterministic approach. *These approaches will be more reliable by incorporating the results of independent studies performed by other domestic research institutes.

m moI
NRC Meeting 28 May 2010 1ulhs w AI

Spciic

0etc i

coniton

of th

Jpns e

4480

Location of 4 plates around Japan Plate boundaries (blue lines), the distribution of recent earthquakes (yellow dots) and active volcanoes (red triangles). TOoecetf the World's

are found and atvvocnes Smore than 1,500 earthquakes| are recorded per year in Japan. Conceptual model of volcanism in subduction zone

4o

a
Geological characteristics of the Japanese islands, especially with regards to geosphere stability

The Japanese Islands are located in the tectonically active circum-Pacific belt (the Ring of Fire), so earthquakes and volcanic eruption frequently occur... Two potential impacts of geotectonic events on geological system

Disturbing the isolation function of geosphere (Isolation Failure scenarios) -disposal

Disturbing the expected safety function of geosphere

(Perturbation Scenarios)

Site selection
Selection of tectonically stable regions for geological disposal

Engineering measures
the engineered barrier Design and installation system suitable for the of future changes in hydraulic condition etc.

-40-

Safety assessment

I
I

Confirmation of the safety of the constructed geological disposal system

evlpmntpo6 JAA' esachan

Objective
To prvd scetii baefcsn6nases eto h

geosph6r

stblt

o-elgcldsoa

R&D aciite

II

.-

ccrdn

to

NUO

s~ siigfatr. vocaos aedet

ara

wihi

raiu

of1

km fro S

Qutrnr

xlddfo

r
0-

Reseat-clv,,

tor potentiai voica

0
10000

1000

20 C

loo IC

Dist&"c (W

0
U 1U zU Yj 4U
w

Distance (kin) Vertical cross-section of 3D S-wave seismic velocity structure along the line A-A' 2D resistivity structure along the line A-A'

Geoicae hys te aldat e istnceof in

~iaefiis

A,1h toll

ire" o

Reearc tehnolgy

fr

ptental

vlc0

68
140'

139"

et WHe (R/RA)

1W 20

30 (0In)

0.0
3

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.o

He/4He and

40

ArP/Ar end-members in the Earth

Geographical distribution of 3He/4He ratios of gases from hot springs around the lide Mountains

to be newly ascending magma rather than solidified old magma, data indicate the high-temperature materials are estimated LGeochemical Moo

To

pl~arovie

cintfic

aTasefocusing

evluating

the

geosph

stblt

of

lo

gtr

is

lto

of

ra

ia

tv

R&D

acivit10

BackgrOUnd ,According to NUIVO s siting factors, areas with uplift of nno-re than 300m during the last 100,000 years will be excluded from cardidate disposal sites ,To enhance confidence in long-term safety. it is in-,portant to predict the future changes in hydraulic condition clue to topograpNc evolution, and assess whether or not the engineered barrier system suitable lor the (-,,xpected changes in hydraU11C. condition. To provide numerical simulation of the future topographic changes that can be useful for evaluation of the changes in hydraulic condition in the future.
14 The developed methods will be available for engineering measures and safety assessment taken into accotint perttirbation scenario. 11

Preic,'o

mehd'rftr

oorpi-

Hill slope domain

Creep of weathered materials

Channel domain Erosion, transportation, sedimentation by running water

Sea domain

Erosion, transportation, sedimentation by ocean wave and coastal current 12

difference in surface elevation

A' .,,aN,

Distribution map showing the difference in surface elevation between present and after 120,000 years (uplift rate of 0.6 mm/y.)
years

I average erosion, 9.09m; average deposition, 5.50m

Topography after 12,000 years is not recognized to be remarkable changes. in comparison with that present.

I3

Communication with society

Project tepoits and anflLlfl lepOltS Repott thtough acadetni(- jouinals and Illeetings I Press releases

46
1

auU 'inbI ,
I

Iii Ciflh!Il
k
-go*