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MCX NEWSLETTER- DAILY

Daily MCX Newsletter 03-OCT-2013

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MARKET WRAP

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MARKET NEWS

BULLION
Is there more weakness in store for gold? Probably yes. Lower gold prices have failed to attract buyers, which may lead to further downfall in the yellow metal. Gold has fallen as much as $140 an ounce in recent trades, due to worries over the potential winding down of the U.S. Federal Reserve's $85 billion monthly bond purchases. In the London Metal Exchange (LME), gold for immediate delivery fell 0.4% to $1,247.66 an ounce on Thursday. Prices, which rose 0.8% yesterday, slumped to $1,180.50 on June 28, the lowest since August 2010. In the US, gold for August delivery fell 0.4% to $1,246.60 on the Comex in New York, where floor trading is shut today for Independence Day, following yesterdays 0.7% gain. A US employment data will decide the future trend for Federal Reserves plans to bring down stimulus. This may further decide the future trend for gold. Gold fell to $1,180.71 in June, lowest since August 2010, after indications from the Fed that it could curtail its stimulus programme in the next few months, earlier than expected. Fed announced series of bond buying programs after financial crisis of 2008. This helped gold prices to increase the safe-haven appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation, driving prices to a record above $1,900 an ounce in September 2011. However, the lower prices have failed to woo buyers in Asia and elsewhere as consumers expect a further drop. As per a Reuters report, sales of gold coins and bars at the Perth Mint nearly halved in June from May, reflecting a slowing appetite for bullion despite prices being near three-year lows.

BASE METAL
Copper prices in both domestic and global market are witnessing negative trend due to concerns over global economic recovery. Copper is expected to trade less volatile as US markets are closed for the day on account of Independence Day. China being the largest consumer, has indicated sings of slowdown in industrial production. In addition, copper inventories are well over 600,000 tons, which is high on a historic basis. Chinas manufacturing numbers are weakening, which may create stockpiles of copper, thereby further pressurizing the prices. People are worried that China, which really drives a lot of the metal stories, is not growing as fast as expected. Eurostat is scheduled to release its data on Eurozone Quarterly Gross Domestic Product at 02.30 PM IST today. European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to release its decision on interest rate at 05.15 PM IST which is followed by president Mario Draghi's speech at 06.00 PM IST today. The base metal investors may get trading clues from the speech for their further trading. US Non-farm pay roll data is scheduled to be released at 06.00 PM IST on Friday by which investors are expected to get clues on the health of the world's largest economy. In the week ending June 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted US unemployment insurance weekly claims was 343,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 348,000, according to the data released by the US Department of Labor.

ENERGY
Oil prices fell on Thursday after the military coup in Egypt. The prices had surged by 3%-5% over the previous two days. The price of US crude had hit a 14-month high on Wednesday on concerns over political turmoil in Egypt, as well as rising US oil demand. US light sweet crude fell two cents to below $101 a barrel, and Brent crude dropped 36 cents to $105.40. Analysts believe that the crude oil prices would further soften as the tension along the Suez canal has eased. Also, US stock piles have further put pressure on the crude oil prices. But the gap between the US and European oil benchmarks continued to narrow. ICE Brent for August was down 62 cents, or 0.59%, at $105.14. Nymex for August was down 44 cents, or 0.43%, at $100.80--still trading above the $100 mark, having climbed above the symbolic level yesterday for the first time in 14 months. The U.S. markets will be closed later for the Independence Day public holiday. A Wall Street Journal report stated that U.S. benchmark West Texas International, or WTI, had a lot to do with the easing of the glut at the U.S. oil storage facility in Cushing that has kept prices depressed. When there is a lot of oil available, supply fears recede and the price remains low, but now oil is leaving the facility more quickly. "Crude futures continued making headway over yesterday's trading session with ICE Brent gaining 1.69% [day on day] to settle at $105.76 per barrel while Nymex WTI settled above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in 14 months," wrote analysts at JBC Markets.

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TECHNICAL VIEW

BULLION

GOLD (5 DEC)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : -CONSOLIDATE

RESISTANCE : - 29550, 29890 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 28600, 28000 : - SELL ON HIGHS

SILVER (5 DEC) OUTLOOK:

RESISTANCE : - 48500, 49325 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 47200,46800 : - SELL ON HIGHS

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ENERGY

CRUDEOIL (21 OCT) OUTLOOK:

RESISTANCE : - 6450, 6530 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 6300, 6200 : - SELL ON HIGHS

NATURAL GAS (28 OCT) OUTLOOK:

RESISTANCE : - 231.60, 236 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 222, 216.50 : - SELL ON HIGHS

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BASE METAL

COPPER (29 NOV.)

RESISTANCE : - 465.50, 472 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 456, 452 : - SELL ON HIGHS

LEAD (31 OCT)

RESISTANCE : - 131.60, 134 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 127.50, 126 : - SELL ON HIGHS

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ZINC (31 OCT)

RESISTANCE : - 119, 120.40 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 115, 113 : - SELL ON HIGHS

ALUMINUM (31 OCT)

RESISTANCE : - 114.60, 116.70 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 112, 109.80 : - SELL ON HIGHS

NICKEL (31 OCT)

RESISTANCE : - 878.10, 886 SUPPORT STRATEGY : - 863, 852.60 : - SELL ON HIGHS

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INTERNATIONAL MARKET

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS PALLADIUM PLATINUM

1311.27 21.680 03.311 103.63 03.541 716.30 1387.00

USDINR EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD

62.4500 01.3597 97.5600 00.9016 01.6228 01.0321

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ECONOMIC CALANDER

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