Niveshak Dec14
Niveshak Dec14
Niveshak Dec14
THE INVESTOR
VOLUME 7 ISSUE 12
December 2014
Niveshak
Volume VII
ISSUE XII
December 2014
Faculty Chairman
Prof. P. Saravanan
THE TEAM
Abhishek Bansal
Akanksha Gupta
Apoorva Sharma
Bhawana Saraf
Gaurav Bhardwaj
Jatin Sethi
Kocherlakota Tarun
Maha Singh Gulati
Mohit Gupta
Mohnish Khiani
Palash jain
Prakhar Nagori
Priyadarshi Agarwal
Ramesh Jaiswal
Rahul Bajaj
Sandeep Sharma
S C Chakravarthi V
Vishal Khare
All images, design and artwork
are copyright of
IIM Shillong Finance Club
Finance Club
Indian Institute of Management
Shillong
www.iims-niveshak.com
With this issue of Niveshak, we bid farewell to an eventful year of 2014. The month of
December saw foreign investors pouring in $2 billion in the Indian capital markets in
December, taking this years total inflows to a whopping $42 billion since January. Foreign Portfolio Investors have invested heavily into the debt market with an exposure of
$26.4 billion, while $16.4 billion have been poured into the equities market. The year
2014 was not very good for IPO market as the funds raised via IPOs in 2014 was lowest
in more than a decade, despite the benchmark indices hitting new highs during the
year. The five IPOs that hit the markets this year raised a combined Rs 1,201 crore, the
lowest since 2001, when 13 companies had raised Rs 296 crore.
Major headlines of this month were - Walmart announcing the opening of new cash
and carry store in Agra after a gap of two years. RBI in its fifth bi-monthly monetary
policy kept the policy rates unchanged. Jyotsna Suri elected as the President of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and she will succeed
Sidharth Birla. The mid-year economic review projected the 2014-15 growth to be at
5.5%. The Finance Ministry ratified 8.75% interest on PF for 2014-15. Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected for another four year term. Ebola fighters were
named as Time magazines 2014 Person of the Year for their tireless acts of courage
and mercy and for risking, persisting, sacrificing and saving. Indias Kailash Satyarthi
received the Nobel Peace Prize for 2014, sharing it with Pakistans Malala Yousafzai, the
youngest ever Nobel laureate, for their work on promoting child rights in the troubled
sub-continent, where millions are deprived of their childhood and education. The
UNs annual economic report predicted the global economy growth to be 3.1% in 2015
and 3.3% growth in 2016. The report also said the India is estimated to record a 5.4%
economic growth this year and its GDP will improve to 5.9% next year and to 6.3% in
2016. The State Bank of India has launched two indices namely SBI Monthly Composite Index and the SBI Yearly Composite Index that will primarily track manufacturing
activity and offer a forward-looking economic trends.
The highlight of this years budget was Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and our
Article of the Month describes everything you need to know about REITs. Startup
ecosystem is maturing in India and 2014 has seen a phenomenal traction in this space,
our coverstory discusses how Private Equity, Hedge fund and VCs investments have
impacted start-ups in India. The year 2014 was also about FDI investments, our FinGyaan section covers FDI investments and how they help the economy. It also covers
both the bright and dark side of the story. And our FinLife section covers the Corporate Social Responsibility aspect of the corporates and how it is helpful to the Indian
economy and people. This year was about blazing stock markets and our FinSight
section covers that in detail by describing the SENSEX movement this year and the
steps taken by Modi government that helped the markets.
To end this brief note, its important that we thank you, our readers, for your constant
support and appreciation. Please continue to motivate us so that we can come out with
more insightful reads in the issues to come. Keep pouring in your suggestions and
feedback to niveshak.iims@gmail.com and as always.
Stay Invested!
Team Niveshak
Disclaimer: The views presented are the opinion/work of the individual author and The Finance Club of IIM Shillong bears
no responsibility whatsoever.
CONTENTS
Cover Story
Niveshak Times
10
FinGyaan
18 FDI- a harbinger of economic
growth?
Finsight
26
FinLife
FinView
Classroom
31 DuPont Analysis
NIVESHAK
www.iims-niveshak.com
IIM Shillong
PM launched Make In India Campaign to
make India a manufacturing hub
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 25 September 2014
launched Make In India Campaign at Vigyan Bhawan
in New Delhi to make India a manufacturing hub.
The campaign is aimed to attract foreign companies
to set up their manufacturing units in India and to
seek greater foreign investment.
The
objective of the campaign is to get
manufacturing sector to grow over 10% on a
sustainable basis over a long run. The campaign
is aimed to transform the economy from the
services-driven growth model to labour-intensive
manufacturing-driven growth. This will help in
creating jobs for over 10 million people, who join
the workforce every year.
Union government de-regulated diesel and
hiked natural gas rates
Union
government on 19 October 2014 deregulated the price of diesel and hiked the rates of
domestically produced natural gas.
The price of diesel will be market-linked without
any government intervention and retail rates
reflecting price changes in the global market. Now
the government will no longer provide subsidy on
diesel.
This is the first reduction in diesel rates from
2009. The diesel price was reduced by 2 rupees
a litre to 30.86 rupees in January 2009. After the
deregulation of diesel, the rates of diesel will bring
down rates by 3.37 rupees per litre.
Besides, the natural gas tariff was hiked by 46
percent and will go up from current 4.2 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu) to 6.17 per mmBtu
from 1 November 2014. The increase of natural gas
price will push up fertiliser, power, CNG and PNG
rates. The natural gas price increase will result in
CNG prices going up by 4.25 rupees per kg and
piped cooking gas by 2.6 rupees. Besides, tariff
for power produced from gas will go up by about
90 paisa per unit and fertilizer production cost by
almost 2720 rupees per ton.
Relief in Inflation
SEPTEMBER 2014
www.iims-niveshak.com
NIVESHAK
worth Rs 2,000 cr. Other important deals include RILNetwork 18 Media and Investments (Rs 4,000 cr),
Asian Paints- Ess Bathroom Products, Kotak Mahindra
Bank - ING Vysya Bank (all stock amalgamation),
Merck- Sigma (for $17 bn in cash), Ranbaxy - Sun
Pharmaceuticals ($4 bn), Tata Consultancy Services
(TCS) and CMC and Tech Mahindra Ltd - Lightbridge
Communications Corp ($240 m).
FDI in Insurance, Railways, Defence etc.
Moving ahead with the economic reforms, the
Cabinet cleared the proposal for raising FDI limit
in defence to 49 per cent and fully opened up the
railway infrastructure segment, like high-speed
trains, for foreign investment.
Alibaba IPO
2014 marked the worlds record-breaking initial
public offering. Alibaba Group, a Chinese e-commerce
company, witnessed an overwhelming response for
the biggest US-listed IPO.
By raising $25 billion, Alibaba surpassed the 2010
offering of Agricultural Bank of China which had
recorded $22.1 billion. On its first trading day, Alibaba
shares soared 38 percent as investors grabbed their
chance to create the largest global IPO.
Reuters reported that according to its prospectus,
Alibaba had agreed to sell $26.1 million additional
shares under the option, and Yahoo Inc an additional
18.3 million, netting the two companies an extra $1.8
billion and $1.2 billion respectively.
Alibaba,
one of the worlds biggest online
e-commerce stores, is now ranked among the most
www.iims-niveshak.com
Market Snapshot
35000.00
6,000
30000.00
5,000
4,000
25000.00
3,000
20000.00
2,000
15000.00
1,000
10000.00
BSE
Article
ofSnapshot
the
Month
Market
Cover
Story
NIVESHAK
-1,000
5000.00
-2,000
0.00
BSE
-5000.00
DII
-3,000
FII
-4,000
26/12/14
25/12/14
24/12/14
23/12/14
22/12/14
21/12/14
20/12/14
19/12/14
18/12/14
17/12/14
16/12/14
15/12/14
14/12/14
13/12/14
12/12/14
11/12/14
10/12/14
09/12/14
08/12/14
07/12/14
06/12/14
05/12/14
04/12/14
03/12/14
02/12/14
01/12/14
30/11/14
29/11/14
28/11/14
27/11/14
Source: www.bseindia.com
www.nseindia.com
9675058.58
Source: www.bseindia.com
Base rate
Deposit rate
CURRENCY RATES
INR/1USD
INR/1Euro
INR/100Jap.YEN
INR/1PoundSterling
INR/1 USD
Euro/1 USD
RESERVE RATIOS
63.64
77.74
52.93
98.98
GBP/1 USD
10.00%-10.25%
8.00% - 9.05%
JPY/1 USD
CRR
SLR
4.00%
22.00%
SGD/1 USD
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
POLICY RATES
Bank Rate
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
1.50%
1.00%
Source: www.bseindia.com
26th Nov 2014 to 26th Dec 2014
0.50%
DECEMBER 2014
www.iims-niveshak.com
NIVESHAK
Article
Market
of Snapshot
the
Month
Cover
Story
Market Snapshot
BSE
Index
Sensex
MIDCAP
Smallcap
AUTO
BANKEX
CD
CG
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
METAL
OIL&GAS
POWER
PSU
REALTY
TECK
Open
Close
% change
28386.19
10119.95
11180.24
18787.14
20586.35
9630.87
16236.26
7696.85
14809.67
11094.24
11274.31
10874.72
2135.26
8228.54
1660.73
6125.31
27241.78
10115.85
10894.89
18455.13
21253.3
9359.5
15113.05
7686.06
14409.51
10422.16
10562.54
9878.81
2032.64
8121.33
1533.94
5762.49
-4.03%
-0.04%
-2.55%
-1.77%
3.24%
-2.82%
-6.92%
-0.14%
-2.70%
-6.06%
-6.31%
-9.16%
-4.81%
-1.30%
-7.63%
-5.92%
% CHANGE
TECK
-5.92%
REALTY
-7.63%
PSU
POWER
-1.30%
-4.81%
OIL&GAS
-9.16%
METAL
-6.31%
IT
-6.06%
Healthcare
-2.70%
FMCG
CG
-0.14%
-6.92%
CD
-2.82%
BANKEX
AUTO
Smallcap
-1.77%
-2.55%
MIDCAP
Sensex
3.24%
-0.04%
-4.03%
HCL Tech.
GODREJ CONSUMER
Wg:6.60%
Gain:8.69%
(15.12%)
Infosys
Wg: 4.40%
Gain : 20.27%
Britannia
Wg:5.25%
Gain:
71.94%
Wg: 5.29%
Gain : 04.55%
TCS
Wg: 5.42%
Gain : 1.65%
FMCG
(24.34%)
Colgate
HUL
Wg:7.18%
Gain:
15.29%
Wg:5.20%
Gain: 6.55%
Banking
(7.40%)
Wg:6.69%
Gain:
7.07%
Auto
(12.04%)
Pharmaceuticals
(13.36%)
Dr Reddys
Labs
Wg:5.43%
Gain:8.53%
Lupin
Wg:7.92%
Gain : 21.87%
HDFC Bank
Wg: 7.40%
Gain : 2.91%
Chemicals
(8.19%)
Amara Raja
Batt
Wg:5.31%
Gain : 13.95%
Tata Motors
Wg:6.73%
Gain : 8.18%
ITC
Asian Paints
Wg:8.19%
Gain:15.62%
Misc.
(5.57%)
Manufacturing
(7.33%)
Titan Company
Wg:5.57%
Gain:-2.09%
Page Industries
Wg:7.33%
Gain:15.20%
Performance Evaluation
Risk Measures:
Standard Deviation : 13.73%(Sensex :
13.11%)
Sharpe Ratio : 2.54 (Sensex : 2.20)
Cash Remaining:2,67,689
Comments on NIFs Performance & Way Ahead: In the month of December (till 26th
December), owing to market entering into consolidation over the performance month of
November, the BSE Sensex witnessed a change of (4.61%) where as the NIF recorded (1.90
%) change. This month the NIF portfolio again witnessed a reshuffle in terms of value and
composition. Since its launch, NIF has made a return of 38.88% compared to the returns of
the Sensex at 32.89%. This has been through the profit booking strategy whenever the
market was overvalued. The recent fall in the markets have held us in a good stead as the
conserved cash has cushioned the fall and has enabled us to take an advantage of the lower
prices. The recent drop in oil prices leading to soft commodity prices is also a net positive
factor for the Indian economy. This coupled with our basic philosophy to conservatively
invest in high quality companies, has led us to introduce Page Industries, HDFC Bank &
Godrej Consumer Ltd. into our portfolio and at the same time about 17% of our portfolio is
still in cash. We expect some more reforms and rate cut as the important driver for the
fundamentals of the companies in the first quarter of the new near 2015 and we would
continue to lookout for maximizing returns by taking as-least-as-possible risk.
10
Article
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Month
Cover
Story
NIVESHAK
IIM Bangalore
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS
Real estate investments entail the ownership
and management of both commercial real
estate and home ownership. Real estate
investment could be direct or indirect. Direct
investing refers to owning and managing
physical real estate (land, buildings etc).
Indirect investing refers to owning securities
of entities that own and manage real estate.
In case of home ownership, real estate most
likely comprises the single largest investment
of a typical retail investor. However, the
dynamics of commercial real estate investing
are significantly different. The primary motive
of commercial real estate investing is to
generate return through lease rentals and
capital appreciation. Following are some
basic yet typical characteristics of real estate
investments :
DECEMBER 2014
Indivisibility
By virtue of their physical characteristics, real
estate investments are indivisible. For example,
it is not possible for an investor to buy only the
living room of a flat and expect another investor
to buy the bedroom.
Big ticket investments
A derivative of indivisibility is large lot size. A
typical real estate investment entails significant
capital investment.
Difficult price discovery
Real estate values are not easily determinable
as in the case of stocks. This is because the
assets are heterogeneous, have significant
idiosyncratic risks and are illiquid. Therefore,
real estate prices are generally determined
through appraisals, which are infrequent.
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Article
of the
Month
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BAML*
Corp
BAML
High Yield
Returns (% )
5 years
28.3
21.3
5.2
18.3
10 years
8.3
6.9
4.4
8.7
15 years
11.5
5.3
5.4
7.6
12
Article
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NIVESHAK
DECEMBER 2014
NIVESHAK
RISK-RETURN CHARACTERISTICS
As per a study conducted by Stern University,
mortgage REITs have generated excess returns of
2.20% over the broad-based stock market index
between 1972 and 2013 . Further, the MSCI US
REIT Index generated compounded annual return
of 8.40% over the past 10 years whereas the
S&P 500 generated compounded annual return
of around 7.40% for the same period .
Between 1994 and 2007, REITs have returned
3.55% per quarter with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.37
vis--vis the S&P 500 which returned 3.08% with
a Sharpe ratio of 0.27 .
It should be noted that REITs are suited to
risk-averse investors desiring high income
yield. Around 60% of total REIT returns can be
explained by current income. A report by Lazard
has proven that REIT dividend growth (8.40%)
over the past 30 years consistently exceeds US
inflation (CPI = 2.40%) .
In the Indian context, the near term attractiveness
of REITs is hazy. Yields on commercial assets top
out at around 9-10%. After adjusting for expenses,
an REIT can offer to the investor can be at best
7-8% . However, as the expense ratio reduces in
line with global standards returns are expected
to improve. Further, given high relatively inflation
in India, it may be unreasonable for REIT dividend
growth to consistently outpace inflation.
As a word of caution, it would be nave on our
part to forget the inflation hedge provided by
real estate and therefore REITs.
CONCLUSION
From the argument posited through this article,
it can be reasonably concluded that REITs are
an attractive proposition since they remedy
many ills plaguing the real estate sector as an
investable asset class.
In the current Indian scenario, the risk-return
characteristics may not appear tantalizing.
However, with an uptick in the economy and
increase in rentals, the returns from REITs, on a
risk-adjusted basis will improve.
Article
of the
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Cover Story
14
NIVESHAK
IIM Shillong
Introduction
Dreams of Indian youth have been gradually
shifting from being corporate leaders to being
business owners over the last few years. More
and more college students are getting inspired
by Mark Zuckerberg and the Bansals. Startup
ecosystem is maturing in India and 2014 has
seen a phenomenal traction in this space.
Raising Funds in a private company is a very
complex and overwhelming exercise. It depends
on the stage in which business is operating,
capital requirement of the business and how
prepared are the owners to part with some
control and equity of the company. Friends &
Family, Angel Investors, Venture Capital (VC),
Private Equity, Banks, Government, Accelerator
programs and Incubation houses are the major
source of financing for the private companies
in India. Let us look at the various financing
options for private companies.
Bootstrapping: Personal savings, loans and
investments from Family and Friends are the
primary source of financing during bootstrapping.
It is the phase in which the business model
of the company is put to test and it lays the
ground for future investments in the company.
Also during this phase the company has
minimum interference from outside world and
revenues are driven by the execution capability
of founders of the company. As the investments
are sourced from personal savings the concept
of frugality in the culture of the company gets
DECEMBER 2014
NIVESHAK
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Cover Story
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NIVESHAK
DECEMBER 2014
NIVESHAK
Cover Story
which began as a community platform for houseowners, property seekers, leaseholders and
tenants to connect, interact and solve everyday
problems has raised two rounds of funding this
year to raise USD 40 million.
Mobile startups witnessed a newfound interest
and accounted for almost 11% of all deals. Ola a
leading local player received a massive USD 210
million dollars in October from Softbank, on top
of USD 41 million dollars it received earlier. Total
funding for Ola in 2014 was over USD 250 million
dollars making it third largest startup funding in
2014. Taxi for sure raised US$30 million in series
C funding and tied up with Tata Motors to launch
a Nano line, probably the worlds smallest
taxis which will cost less than three-wheelers
(auto-rickshaws) in India. Recent debacle with
Uber has also put significant pressure from the
government on the functioning of online taxi
services and is affecting the functioning of these
companies. These investments will take some
time to mature before the investors can look
at their exit options, however investors looking
to exit now will have to do it at discounted
valuations.
Zomato is leading by example, showing Indian
internet companies how to go global. This
restaurant discovery and rating company is
going global fast, expanding to 20 countries.
Its appetite for growth led to five acquisitions
in New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Poland, and Italy. It has raised USD $60 million
funding late in the year. Going global is the best
strategy for Zomato, to increase its customer
base by leverage their expertise developed over
the years and then investors can exit through an
IPO. Also Practo which started out in Bangalore
- a doctor discovery and booking platform for
patients, lists more than 100,000 doctors in
India and Singapore, has raised USD 20 million
in the current year. There are huge investments
coming in the healthcare industry and investors
can look to exit as it gets acquired by another
company.
Gaming & Media are the new participants in
2014 and have seen significant growth since
then, largely driven by the big ticket fundings
of NewsHunt, ScoopWhoop & News in Shorts.
Hungama, a digital entertainment company
which has become the repository of Bollywood
movies and music has raised USD 40 million
dollars in 2014. They are still in a nascent stage
and unless an acquisition happens there is no
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FinGyaan
FinGyaan
SIMSRE
Introduction
There exists near unanimity among economists
and policymakers that foreign direct investment
(FDI) can positively and substantially influence
the economic growth of the recipient country.
FDI is conservatively understood to be relatively
more stable, permanent foreign capital that brings
along with it advanced technology, managerial
knowhow, and skills versus the flighty portfolio
funds. Although, the recipient economies
experience short term pain, a host of long term
benefits accrue to such countries. Infusion of
new capital results in expansion of production
base, increased employment, and lower prices
for domestic consumers due to increased
competition. FDI typically results in efficient
allocation of resources, increase in efficiency
and productivity, and access to technology
locally unavailable. Increased competition
forces local firms to upgrade. Empirical studies
DECEMBER 2014
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DECEMBER 2014
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FinGyaan
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to now.
Is FDI a mere substitute for cross border trade?
One of the noticeable trends has been the
phenomenon of FDI increasingly replacing trade.
Let us take a simple example. A firm which wants
to expand to a foreign market, typically starts by
exporting its products. Gradually, it expands the
range of activities it performs in the recipient
country-marketing, representative offices, after
sales centers, etc. Once it has a solid footing, it
starts a production base. The former constitutes
international trade among open economies,
while the latter is FDI. In this example, FDI
seemingly replaced trade. Is FDI complementary
or substitutionary vis--vis trade?
Recent decades show a surge in FDI, while trade
has more or less been stagnant. FDI could be
substituting trade, but engendering a world
economy growth that is beyond the scope of
mere trade flows. MNCs choose between exports
or FDI based on relative incentives and costs
(Standard trade theory).
MNCs possess intangible assets that are
harnessed by strategically placing production
facilities in different locations with a view for
profit maximization. In this endeavor, they
choose between affiliates and exports. This
choice is influenced by host country policies
(tax holidays, concessions, and easy credit) that
encourages FDI.
Imports are discouraged via high tariffs and
duties. In the late 1980s, a substantial part of
Japanese FDI in Europe was because of antidumping duties imposed by the European
Commission.
Currency exchange rates are a major determinant
in FDI vs. trade decision. An appreciating yen
against the rupee will discourage Japanese trade
to India, resulting in increased FDI flows.
Horizontal FDI- moving the production facility
to the host country has demand enhancing
effects. Local goodwill, customer loyalty,
spillover effects on other products for a multi
products firm contribute to increase demand
both for the base and allied products.
Vertical FDI sees the transfer of only a part
of the production facility to overseas market,
typically the assembly function. Components
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Article
of the
Month
FinLife
Cover
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SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE
CORPORATES
Bhawana
IIM Shillong
DECEMBER 2014
NIVESHAK
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Article
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24
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DECEMBER 2014
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25
Article
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26
Article
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Finsight
Cover
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NIVESHAK
IIM Udaipur
Sensex breached 40000 mark, Nifty at alltime high, stated a headline in a leading
business daily dated 31st Dec 2015. It seems
fascinating and improbable at first sight, but
analyzing recent bull run makes these figures
reasonable. Since May 2014, S&P BSE Sensex
rose approximately 17.5 %, while CNX Nifty
has grown by 15 %. Extrapolating from similar
trends, we can expect 40 % rise till Dec 2015 in
Sensex, which amounts to possibility of Sensex
breaching 40000 mark.
In recent six months, we have seen the stock
market reaching new heights quite often.
Though there were intermittent losses but
overall trends were a bull run further into
untested territories. Factors that fueled this
rise must be scrutinized. General elections in
May 2014 proved to be a watershed event.
From May 2013 to Feb 2014, Sensex hovered in
a narrow range while after March stock market
saw a bull run clearly observable in a sharply
inclined curve, driven by anticipation of a
strong, stable BJP led NDA government. Bull
Run continued further after election results,
riding high on optimism.
Modi factor has been able to lift the prevailing
mood of disappointment about Indian
economy. Bull markets, stable currency,
DECEMBER 2014
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Finsight
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28
Article
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DECEMBER 2014
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FinView
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FinGyaan
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FinGyaan
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DECEMBER 2014
31
NIVESHAK
DuPont Analysis
FinFunda
of the
Month
Apoorva Sharma
IIM Shillong
Classroom
Cover
Story
CLASSROOM
32
WINNERS
Article of the Month
Prize - INR 1500/Dylan Jude Fernandes
IIM Bangalore
December FinQ Winners
1 st Prize - INR 1000/Aman Singh
FMS Delhi
33
ANNOUNCEMENTS
ALL ARE INVITED
Team Niveshak invites articles from B-Schools all across India. We are looking for
original articles related to finance & economics. Students can also contribute puzzles
and jokes related to finance & economics. References should be cited wherever necessary. The best article will be featured as the Article of the Month and would be
awarded cash prize of Rs.1500/- along with a certificate.
Instructions
Please send your articles before 10th Jan, 2015 to niveshak.iims@gmail.com
The subject line of the mail must be Article for Niveshak_<Article Title>
Do mention your name, institute name and batch with your article
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