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Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions

Implications for Transport Planning
29 January 2015
By
Todd Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute

The Google Corporations self-driving car is a well-publicized example of an autonomous vehicle.

Abstract
This report explores the impacts that autonomous (also called self-driving, driverless or robotic) vehicles
are likely to have on travel demands and transportation planning. It discusses autonomous vehicle
benefits and costs, predicts their likely development and implementation based on experience with
previous vehicle technologies, and explores how they will affect planning decisions such as optimal road,
parking and public transit supply. The analysis indicates that some benefits, such as independent
mobility for affluent non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or 2030s, but most impacts, including reduced
traffic and parking congestion (and therefore road and parking facility supply requirements),
independent mobility for low-income people (and therefore reduced need to subsidize transit),
increased safety, energy conservation and pollution reductions, will only be significant when
autonomous vehicles become common and affordable, probably in the 2040s to 2060s, and some
benefits may require prohibiting human-driven vehicles on certain roadways, which could take longer.
Presented at the 2015 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (www.trb.org), 15-3326.
Summarized in Ready or Waiting, Traffic Technology International, January, pp. 36-42.

Todd Alexander Litman 2013-15

You are welcome and encouraged to copy, distribute, share and excerpt this document and its ideas, provided the author is
given attribution. Please send your corrections, comments and suggestions for improvement.

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Computers Versus Automobiles

According to popular legend,1 Bill Gates once compared computers with automobiles and
concluded, If GM had kept up with the technology like the computer industry we would be
driving $25 cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon.
In response, according to the legend, General Motors issued the following press release.
If General Motors developed technology like Microsoft, motor vehicles would have the
following characteristics:
1. Automobiles would frequently crash for no apparent reason. This would be so common
that motorists would simply accept it, restart their car and continue driving.
2. Occasionally, for no reason, all doors would lock, and motorists could only enter their
vehicle by simultaneously lifting the door handle, turning the key, and holding the radio
antenna.
3. Vehicles would occasionally shut down completely and refuse to restart, requiring
motorists to reinstall their engine.
4. Every time GM introduced a new model, car buyers would have to relearn to drive
because all controls would operate in a new manner.
5. Whenever roadway lines are repainted motorists would need to purchase a new car that
accommodates the new operating system.
6. Cars could normally carry only one passenger unless the driver paid extra for a multipassenger license.
7. Apple would make a car powered by the sun, more reliable, five times as fast, that
required half the effort to drive, but could operate on just five per cent of roads.
8. Oil, water temperature and alternator warning lights would be replaced by a single
'general car default' warning light.
9. Airbags would ask, 'Are you sure?' before deployment.
10. Vehicle buyers would be required to also purchase a set of deluxe road maps from
Rand-McNally (a GM subsidiary), regardless of whether or not they want it. A trained
mechanic would be required to delete them from the glove compartment.
11. To shut off the engine drivers would press the 'start' button.

www.snopes.com/humor/jokes/autos.asp

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Introduction
Autonomous (also called self-driving, driverless or robotic) vehicles have long been predicted in
science fiction and discussed in popular science media. Recently major corporations have
announced plans to begin selling such vehicles in a few years, and some jurisdictions have
passed legislation to allow such vehicles to operate legally on public roads (Wikipedia 2013).
Levels of Autonomous Vehicles (NHTSA 2013)
Level 1 Function-specific Automation: Automation of specific control functions, such as cruise control, lane
guidance and automated parallel parking. Drivers are fully engaged and responsible for overall vehicle control
(hands on the steering wheel and foot on the pedal at all times).
Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: Automation of multiple and integrated control functions, such as
adaptive cruise control with lane centering. Drivers are responsible for monitoring the roadway and are expected
to be available for control at all times, but under certain conditions can disengaged from vehicle operation (hands
off the steering wheel and foot off pedal simultaneously).
Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Drivers can cede all safety-critical functions under certain conditions
and rely on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions that will require transition back to driver
control. Drivers are not expected to constantly monitor the roadway.
Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles can perform all driving functions and monitor roadway conditions
for an entire trip, and so may operate with occupants who cannot drive and without human occupants.

There is much speculation concerning autonomous vehicle impacts. Advocates predict that
consumers will soon be able to purchase affordable self-driving vehicles that can greatly reduce
traffic and parking costs, accidents and pollution emissions, and chauffeur non-drivers around
their communities, reducing roadway costs, eliminating the need for conventional public transit
services (Keen 2013). Under this scenario, the savings will be so great that such vehicles will
soon be ubiquitous and virtually everybody will benefit. However, it is possible that their
benefits will be smaller and their costs greater than these optimist predictions assume.
There is extensive technical literature concerning autonomous vehicle technical development
(TRB 2011), enthusiastic promotion in popular publications (Bamonte 2013; Bilger 2013;
Motavalli 2012), interest by businesses (KPMG 2012), and some criticisms (Arieff 2013;
Blumgart 2013; Gomes 2014). The Economist sponsored a debate concerning whether
completely self-driving cars are feasible in the foreseeable future (Saffo and Bergbaum 2013).
However, only recently have transportation practitioners started to explore how autonomous
vehicles will affect planning decisions such as roadway design, parking costs and public transit
demand (Fagnant and Kockelman 2013; ITIF 2013; Lutin, Kornhauser and Lerner-Lam 2013;
Narla 2013). This report investigates these issues. It critically examines autonomous vehicles
potential benefits and costs, provides predictions of their development and deployment based
on experiences with previous vehicle technologies, and discusses their implications for
transport planning issues such as road and parking supply and public transit demand.

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Potential Impacts (Benefits and Costs)

Table 1 summarizes expected autonomous vehicle benefits and costs.
Table 1

Autonomous Vehicle Potential Benefits and Costs

Benefits

Costs/Problems

Reduced driver stress. Reduce the stress of driving and allow

motorists to rest and work while traveling.
Reduced driver costs. Reduce costs of paid drivers for taxis
and commercial transport.

Increases costs. Requires additional vehicle equipment,

services and maintenance, and possibly additional roadway
infrastructure.
Additional risks. May introduce new risks, such as system
failures, be less safe under certain conditions, and encourage
road users to take additional risks (offsetting behavior).

Mobility for non-drivers. Provide independent mobility for

non-drivers, and therefore reduce the need for motorists to
chauffeur non-drivers, and to subsidize public transit.

Security and Privacy concerns. May be used for criminal and

terrorist activities (such as bomb delivery), vulnerable to
information abuse (hacking), and features such as GPS tracking
and data sharing may raise privacy concerns.

Increased safety. May reduce many common accident risks

and therefore crash costs and insurance premiums. May
reduce high-risk driving, such as when impaired.

Induced vehicle travel and increased external costs. By

increasing travel convenience and affordability, autonomous
vehicles may induce additional vehicle travel, increasing
external costs of parking, crashes and pollution.

Increased road capacity, reduced costs. May allow

platooning (vehicle groups traveling close together),
narrower lanes, and reduced intersection stops, reducing
congestion and roadway costs.

Social equity concerns. May have unfair impacts, for example,

by reducing other modes convenience and safety.

More efficient parking, reduced costs. Can drop off

passengers and find a parking space, increasing motorist
convenience and reducing total parking costs.

Reduced employment and business activity. Jobs for drivers

should decline, and there may be less demand for vehicle
repairs due to reduced crash rates.

Increase fuel efficiency and reduce pollution. May increase

fuel efficiency and reduce pollution emissions.
Supports shared vehicles. Could facilitate carsharing (vehicle
rental services that substitute for personal vehicle
ownership), which can provide various savings.

Misplaced planning emphasis. Focusing on autonomous

vehicle solutions may discourage communities from
implementing conventional but cost-effective transport
projects such as pedestrian and transit improvements, pricing
reforms and other demand management strategies.

Autonomous vehicles can provide various benefits and impose various costs.

Some impacts, such as reduced driver stress and increased urban roadway capacity, can occur
under level 2 or 3 implementation, which provides limited self-driving capability, but many
benefits, such as significant crash reductions, road and parking cost savings and affordable
mobility for non-drivers, require that level 4 vehicles become common and inexpensive.
Estimated Costs

The incremental costs of making autonomous vehicles are uncertain. They require a variety of
special sensors, computers and controls, which currently cost tens of thousands of dollar but
are likely to become cheaper with mass production (KPMG 2012). However, because system
failures could be fatal to both vehicle occupants and other road users, all critical components
will need to meet high manufacturing, installation, repair, testing and maintenance standards,
similar to aircraft components, and so will probably be relatively expensive. Autonomous
vehicle operation may require special navigation and mapping service subscriptions (this
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explains the Google Corporations interest in this technology). Other, simpler technologies add
hundreds of dollars to vehicle retail prices. For example, GPS and telecommunications systems,
review cameras, and automatic transmissions typically cost $500 to $2,000. Navigation and
security services such as OnStar and TomTom have $200 to $350 annual fees. Autonomous
vehicles require these plus other equipment and services (see box below).
Autonomous Vehicle Equipment and Service Requirements
Automatic transmissions.
Diverse and redundant sensors (optical, infrared, radar, ultrasonic and laser) capable of operating in diverse
conditions (rain, snow, unpaved roads, tunnels, etc.).
Wireless networks. Short range systems for vehicle-to-vehicle communications, and long-range systems to
access to maps, software upgrades, road condition reports, and emergency messages.
Navigation, including GPS systems and special maps.
Automated controls (steering, braking, signals, etc.)
Servers, software and power supplies with high reliability standards.
Additional testing, maintenance and repair costs for critical components such as sensors and controls.

Manufacturers will need to recover costs of development, ongoing service (special mapping and
software upgrades) and liability, plus earn profits. This suggests that when the technology is
mature, self-driving capability will probably add several thousand dollars to vehicle purchase
prices, plus a few hundred dollars in annual maintenance and service costs, increasing
annualized costs $1,000 to $3,000 per vehicle. These incremental costs may be partly offset by
fuel and insurance savings. Motorists spend on average approximately $2,000 for fuel and
$1,000 for insurance per vehicle-year. If autonomous vehicles reduce fuel consumption by 10%
and insurance costs by 30%, the total annual savings will average $500, which will not fully
offset predicted incremental annual costs.
Autonomous vehicles can be programed to optimize occupant comfort. Le Vine, Zolfaghari and
Polak (2015) argue that because vehicle passengers tend to be more sensitive to acceleration
than drivers, and occupants use travel time to work or rest (autonomous vehicle illustrations
often show occupants playing cards or sleeping) it is plausible that for comfort sake users will
program their vehicle for lower acceleration/deceleration characteristics than human-powered
vehicles, leading to reductions in total urban roadway capacity.
Estimated Benefits

Advocates emphasize user convenience, safety, congestion reduction, fuel savings and emission
reduction benefits. Some of these claims many be overstated. For example, advocates argue
that because driver error contributes to more than 90% of traffic accidents, self-driving cars will
reduce crashes 90% (KPMG 2012; Fagnant and Kockelman 2013). However, autonomous
vehicles are likely to introduce new risks including system failures (death by computer),
cyberterrorism (Bilger 2013), offsetting behavior (the tendency of road users to take additional
risks when they feel safer; also called risk compensation) and rebound effects (increased vehicle
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travel resulting from faster or cheaper travel) (Ecenbarger 2009; Lin 2013; Ohnsman 2014). For
example, because they feel safer vehicle occupants may reduce seatbelt use, other road users
may become less cautious, vehicles may operate faster and closer together, and human drivers
may be tempted to join autonomous vehicle platoons it may become a sport which will
introduce new risks and enforcement requirements. Based on detailed analysis Sivak and
Schoettle (2015) conclude that autonomous vehicles may be no safer than an average driver
and may increase total crashes if self- and human-driven vehicles are mixed.
Estimated congestion and parking cost reductions, energy savings and emission reductions are
also uncertain due to interactive effects. For example, the ability to work and rest while
traveling may induce some motorists to choose larger vehicles that can serve as mobile offices
and bedrooms (commuter sex may be a marketing strategy for such vehicles) and drive more
annual miles. Self-driving taxis and self-parking cars will require empty backhauls, so each
passenger-mile sometimes generates two vehicle-miles of travel. Although the additional
vehicle travel provides user benefits (otherwise, users would not increase their mileage) it can
increase external costs, including congestion, roadway and parking facility costs, accident risk
imposed on other road users, and pollution emissions. Some strategies such as platooning may
be limited to grade-separated roadways, so autonomous vehicles may increase congestion on
surface streets. Autonomous vehicles may reduce public transit travel demand, leading to
reduced service, and stimulate more sprawled land use development patterns which reduce
transport options and increase total vehicle travel.
Shared Vehicles

Some advocates claim that autonomous vehicles will provide large savings by allowing personal
vehicles to be replaced with shared, self-driving taxies, reducing ownership and parking costs
(Fagnant and Kockelman 2013; ITF 2014; Schonberger and Gutmann 2013). These impacts and
benefits are difficult to predict. Many motorists prefer to own their vehicles for identity (to
display their style and success) and convenience (because they often leave equipment in
vehicles or carry dirty loads). Shared autonomous vehicle convenience and cost profiles are
likely to range between carsharing ($0.60- $1.00 per vehicle-mile, to cover vehicle ownership,
operation and administrative costs) and human-operated taxis ($2.00-3.00 per vehicle-mile, to
cover vehicle ownership, operation, administration and labor costs).
Autonomous taxis are likely to incur these additional costs:

Additional vehicle travel to trip origins. This may be modest in dense urban areas where such
taxis are widely distributed, but is likely to add 10-20% to total vehicle travel in lower-density
suburban and rural areas, or for specialized vehicles such as vans and trucks.

Cleaning and vandalism. Taxis and public transit vehicles require frequent cleaning when
passengers litter, smoke, spill food and drinks, spit or bring pets, and repairs when vehicles are
vandalized. To minimize these risks self-driving taxis will need hardened surfaces, durable
fabrics, minimal moving parts, electronic surveillance, and aggressive enforcement. Assuming
that vehicles make 200 weekly trips, 5-15% of passengers leave messes with $10-30 average
cleanup costs, and 1-4% vandalize vehicles with $50-100 average repair costs, these costs would
average between $200 and $1,700 per vehicle-week.
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Reduced services. Drivers often help passengers (particularly those with disabilities) in and out of
taxies, carry luggage, ensure passengers safely reach destinations, and offer guidance to visitors.

Reduced comfort and privacy. Vehicles designed to minimize cleaning and vandalism risks will
probably have less comfort (no leather upholstery or carpeted floors), fewer accessories (limited
sound systems), and less reliability (since vehicles will frequently need cleaning and repairs) than
personal vehicles. Passengers will need to accept that their activities will be recorded.

Personal automobiles typically cost about $4,000 annually in fixed expenses plus 20 per mile in
operating costs. It is generally cheaper to use conventional taxis ($2.00-3.00 per mile) rather
than own a personal vehicle driven less than about 2,500 annual miles, or rely on carsharing
services ($0.60-1.00 per mile) rather than own a vehicle driven less than about 6,000 annual
miles. This suggests that autonomous vehicles will be a cost effective alternative to owning a
vehicle driving less than 2,500 to 6,000 annual miles, depending on cleaning and repair costs.
Table 2 summarizes trip types most suitable for self-driving taxis, a minority of total vehicle
travel. Because of these additional costs, and reduced passenger comfort and privacy, it seems
unlikely that most motorists will shift from owning vehicles to relying on self-driving taxis.
Table 2

Likely Uses of Self-Driving Taxis

Suitable Uses

Unsuited Uses

Trips currently made by taxi or carshare vehicles.

Motorists who take pride in vehicles or value extra comfort.

Utilitarian trips currently made by a private vehicle

driven less than 6,000 annual miles.

Motorists who drive more than 6,000 annual miles.

Motorists who require special accessories in their vehicles.
Motorists who normally carry tools or dirty loads in their
vehicles (e.g., trades workers).
Passengers (particularly those with disabilities) who want
assistance getting in and out of taxies, or with luggage.
Passengers who place high values on privacy.

Self-driving taxis may allow some motorists to reduce their vehicle ownership, but impacts are likely to
be modest and will depend on factors such as cleaning and vandalism costs, user comfort and privacy.

Impacts on Total Vehicle Travel

These scenarios illustrate how autonomous vehicles could impact various users travel patterns:
Jake is an affluent man with degenerating vision. In 2026 his doctor convinced him to give up
driving. He purchases an autonomous vehicle instead of shifting to walking, transit and taxies.
Impacts: An autonomous vehicle allows Jake to continue using a car, which increases his
independent mobility, total vehicle ownership and travel, residential parking demand, and
external costs (congestion, roadway costs, parking subsidies, and pollution emissions),
compared with what would otherwise occur.
Bonnie lives and works in a suburb. She can bike to most destinations but occasionally needs a
car. In a city she could rely on taxis and carsharing, but such services are slow and expensive in
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suburbs. However, when she started shopping for a car in 2030 a local company began offering
fast and affordable automated taxi services.
Impacts: Autonomous vehicles allow Bonnie to rely on shared vehicles rather than purchase a
car, which reduces her total vehicle travel, residential parking demand, and external costs.

Malisa and Johnny have two children. Malisa works at a downtown office. After their second
child was born in 2035, they shopped for a larger home. With conventional cars they would only
consider houses within a 30-minute drive of the city center, but relatively affordable new
autonomous vehicles let them consider more distant home locations, with commutes up to 60minutes, during which Malisa could rest and work.
Impacts: Affordable new autonomous vehicles allows Malisa and Johnny to choose an exurban
home location, which increased their total vehicle, accident, parking and roadway costs, and the
costs of providing public services such as utilities and emergency response.
Garry is hard-working and responsible when sober, but a dangerous driver when drunk. By 2040
he had accumulated several impaired citations and caused a few accidents. With conventional
cars Garry would continue driving impaired until he lost his drivers license or caused a severe
crash, but affordable used self-driving vehicles allow lower-income motorists like Garry to avoid
such problems.
Impacts: Affordable used autonomous vehicles allow Garry to avoid impaired driving, accidents
and revoked driving privileges, which reduces crash risks but increases his vehicle ownership and
travel, and external costs compared with what would otherwise occur.

Table 3 summarizes the resulting impacts of these various scenarios. This suggests that in many
cases autonomous vehicles will increase total vehicle mileage.
Table 3

Autonomous Vehicle Scenario Summary

User Benefits

Travel Impacts

Infrastructure Impacts

Jake

Independent mobility for nondrivers

Increased vehicle travel and

external costs

Increased residential parking

and roadway costs

Bonnie

Vehicle cost savings

Reduced vehicle ownership and

travel

Reduced residential parking

and roadway costs

Melisa and
Johnny

Improved home location options

Increased vehicle ownership

and travel

Increased residential parking

and roadway costs

Garry

Avoids driving drunk and

associated consequences

Less high-risk driving, more

total vehicle travel

Increased residential parking

and roadway costs

Autonomous vehicle availability can have various direct and indirect impacts.

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Development and Deployment

Table 4 summarizes likely stages of autonomous vehicle development and deployment.
Table 4

Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Stages (Wikipedia 2013; NHTSA 2013)

Stage

Notes

Level 2 Limited automation (steering,

braking and lane guidance)

This is the current state of art, available on some new vehicles.

Coordinated platooning

Currently technically feasible but requires vehicle-to-vehicle communications

capability, and dedicated lanes to maximize safety and mobility benefits.

Level 3 Restricted self-driving

Currently being tested. Google experimental cars have driven hundreds of

thousands of miles in self-drive mode under restricted conditions.

Level 4 Self-driving in all conditions

Requires more technological development.

Regulatory approval for automated

driving on public roadways.

Some states have started developing performance standards and regulations that
autonomous vehicles must meet to legally operate on public roads.

Fully-autonomous vehicles available for

sale.

Several companies predict commercial sales of driverless cars between 2018

and 2020, although their capabilities and prices are not specified.

Autonomous vehicles become a major

portion of total vehicle sales.

Will depend on performance, prices and consumer acceptance. New technologies

usually require several years to build market acceptance.

Autonomous vehicles become a major

portion of vehicle fleets.

As the portion of new vehicles with autonomous driving capability increases,

their portion of the total vehicle fleet will increase over a few decades.

Autonomous vehicles become a major

portion of vehicle travel.

Newer vehicles tend to be driven more than average, so new technologies tend
to represent a larger portion of vehicle travel then the vehicle fleet.

Market saturation.

Everybody who wants an autonomous vehicle has one.

Universal

All vehicles operate autonomously.

Autonomous vehicle implementation will involve several phases.

Currently (2013), many new vehicles have some level 1 automation features such as cruise
control, obstruction warning, and parallel parking. In 2014 or 2015, some manufactures plan to
offer level 2 features such as automated lane guidance, accident avoidance, and driver fatigue
detection. Coordinated platooning is now technically feasible but not operational because many
benefits require dedicated lanes. Google level 3 test vehicles have reportedly driven hundreds of
thousands of miles under restricted conditions: specially mapped routes, fair weather, and
human drivers able to intervene when needed (Muller 2013). Some manufacturers aspire to sell
level 4 automation vehicles within a few years but details are uncertain; early versions will
probably be limited to controlled environments such as freeways (Row 2013).
Despite this progress, significant technical improvement is needed to progress from restricted
level 3 to unrestricted level 4 operation. Since a failure could be deadly to vehicle occupants and
other road users, automated driving has high performance requirements. Sensors, computers
and software must be robust, redundant and resistant to abuse. Several more years of
development and testing will probably be required before regulators and potential users gain
confidence that level 4 vehicles can operate as expected under all conditions (Bilger 2013).
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Implementation Projections
Autonomous vehicle implementation can be predicted based on the pattern of previous vehicle
technologies, and vehicle fleet turnover rates.

Automatic Transmissions (Healey 2012). First developed in the 1930s. It took until the 1980s to
become reliable and affordable. Now standard on most U.S. medium and high-priced vehicles,
although some models have manual mode. When optional they typically cost $1,000 to $2,000.
Current new vehicle market shares are about 90% in North America and 50% in Europe and Asia.

Air Bags (Dirksen 1997). First introduced in 1973. Initially an expensive and sometimes
dangerous option (they could cause injuries and deaths), they became cheaper and safer, were
standard on some models starting in 1988, and mandated by U.S. federal regulation in 1998.

Hybrid Vehicles (Berman 2011). Became commercially available in 1997, but prices were high
and performance poor. Their performance and usability has improved, but typically add about
$5,000 to vehicle prices. In 2012 they represented about 3.3% of total vehicle sales.

Subscription Vehicle Services. Navigation, remote lock/unlock, diagnostics and emergency

services. OnStar became available in 1997, TomTom in 2002. They typically cost $200-400
annually. About 2% of U.S. motorists subscribe to the largest service, OnStar.

Vehicle Navigation Systems (Lendion 2012). Vehicle navigation systems became available as
expensive accessories in the mid-1980s. In the mid-1990s factory-installed systems became
available on some models, for about $2,000. Performance and usability have since improved,
and prices have declined to about $500 for factory-installed systems, and under $200 for
portable systems. They are standard in many higher-priced models.

Table 5 summarizes the deployment cycles, from first commercial availability to market
saturation, for these technologies. Most new technologies require decades of technical
development and market growth to saturate their potential markets, and in many cases never
become universal. Airbags had the shortest cycle and the most complete market share, due to
federal mandates. Automatic transmissions required more than five decades for prices to
decline and quality to improve, and are still not universal. Hybrid vehicles are still developing
after 15 years on the market, have substantial price premiums and modest market share. This
suggests that new vehicle technologies generally require two to five decades from commercial
availability to market saturation, and without government mandates will not be universal.
Table 5

Vehicle Technology Deployment Summary

Name

Deployment Cycle

Typical Cost Premium

Market Saturation Share

Air bags

25 years (1973-98)

A few hundred dollars

100%, due to federal mandate

Automatic transmissions

50 years (1940s-90s)

$1,500

90% U.S., 50% worldwide

Navigation systems

30+ years (1985-2015+)

$500 and rapidly declining

Uncertain; probably over 80%.

Optional GPS services

15 years

$250 annual

2-5%

Hybrid vehicles

25+ years (1990s-2015+)

$5,000

Uncertain. Currently about 4%.

New technologies usually require several decades between commercial availability to market saturation.

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Modern vehicles are durable, resulting in slow fleet turnover. Median operating lives increased
from 11.5 years for the 1970 model year, to 12.5 years for the 1980 model year, and 16.9 years
for the 1990 model year (ORNL 2012, Table 3.12), suggesting that current vehicles may have 20
year or longer average lifespans. As a result, new vehicle technologies normally require three to
five decades to be implemented in 90% of operating vehicles. Deployment may be faster in
developing countries where fleets are expanding, and in areas with strict vehicle inspection
requirements, such as Japans shaken system. Annual mileage tends to decline as vehicles age.
For example, 2001 vehicles averaged approximately 15,000 miles their first year, 10,000 miles
their 10th year and 5,000 miles their 15th year, so vehicles older than ten years represent about
50% of the vehicle fleet but only about 20% of vehicle mileage (ORNL 2012, Table 3.8).
As previously described, autonomous driving capability will probably increase vehicle purchase
prices by thousands of dollars, and may require hundreds of dollars in annual subscription fees
for special navigation and mapping services. Although self-driving vehicles may provide large
benefits to some users (high-income non-drivers, long-distance automobile commuters, and
commercial drivers), it is unclear what portion of motorists will consider the benefits worth the
additional costs. A recent consumer survey found general support for the concept, but also
significant concerns about privacy and safety, and relatively low willingness to pay extra for
self-driving capability features (Schoettle and Sivak 2014).
Table 6 summarizes projected autonomous vehicle implementation rates based on previous
vehicle technology deployment. This assumes that fully-autonomous vehicles are available for
sale and legal to drive on public roads around 2020, but, as with previous vehicle technologies,
are initially imperfect (poor reliability and performance, and difficult to operate) and costly
(tens of thousands of dollars price premiums), and so represent a small portion of total vehicle
sales, with market share increasing during subsequent decades as their performance improves,
prices decline, and their benefits are demonstrated. Over time they will increase as a share of
total vehicle fleets. Since newer vehicles are driven more than average annual miles their share
of vehicle travel is proportionately large. Without mandates, deployment will probably follow
the pattern of automatic transmissions, which took nearly five decades to reach market
saturation, and a portion of motorists continue to choose manual transmissions due to personal
preferences and cost savings.
Table 6

Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Projections

Stage
Available with large price premium
Available with moderate price premium
Available with minimal price premium
Standard feature included on most new vehicles
Saturation (everybody who wants it has it)
Required for all new and operating vehicles

Decade
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
2060s
???

Vehicle Sales
2-5%
20-40%
40-60%
80-100%
?
100%

Autonomous vehicle implementation will probably take several decades.

11

Veh. Fleet
1-2%
10-20%
20-40%
40-60%
?
100%

Veh. Travel
1-4%
10-30%
30-50%
50-80%
?
100%

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Figure 1 illustrates the deployment rates from Table 6. If accurate, in the 2040s autonomous
vehicles will represent approximately 50% of vehicle sales, 30% of vehicles, and 40% of all
vehicle travel. Only in the 2050s would most vehicles be capable of automated driving.
Figure 1

Autonomous Vehicle Sales, Fleet and Travel Projections (Based on Table 6)

100%

80%

60%

Sales - Optimistic
Sales - Pessimistic
Travel - Optimistic
Travel - Pessimistic
Fleet - Optimistic
Fleet - Pessimistic

40%

20%

0%
2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

If autonomous vehicle implementation follows the patterns of other vehicle technologies it will take one
to three decades to dominate vehicle sales, plus one or two more decades to dominate vehicle travel,
and even at market saturation it is possible that a significant portion of vehicles and vehicle travel will
continue to be self-driven, indicated by the dashed lines.

Autonomous vehicle implementation could be even slower and less complete than these
predictions. Technical challenges may be more difficult to solve than expected, so fully selfdriving vehicles may not be commercially available until the 2030s or 2040s. They may have
higher than expected production costs and retail prices, their benefits may be smaller and
problems greater than predicted, and technical constraints, privacy concerns or personal
preference may reduce consumer acceptance, resulting in a significant portion of vehicle travel
remaining human-driven even after market saturation, indicated in the graph by dashed lines.
Significantly faster implementation would require much faster development, deployment and
fleet turnover than previous vehicle technologies. For example, for the majority of vehicle
travel to be autonomous by 2035, most new vehicles purchased after 2025 would need to be
autonomous, and new vehicle purchase rates would need to triple, so the fleet turnover
process that normally takes three decades can occur in one. This would require most low- and
middle-income motorists, who normally purchase used vehicles or cheaper new models to
spend significantly more in order to purchase a new automobile with self-driving capability, and
many otherwise functional vehicles be scrapped just because they lack self-driving capability.

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Planning Implications
Autonomous vehicle implementation is just one of several factors likely to affect future
transport demands and costs, as illustrated in Figure 2. Demographic trends, changing
consumer preferences, price changes, improving transport options, improved user information,
and other planning innovations will also influence how and how much people drive. These may
have greater planning impacts than autonomous vehicles, at least until the 2040s.
Figure 2

Factors Affecting Transport Demands and Costs

Demographic Trends

Price Changes

Improved Travel Options

Aging population
More working at home
Reduced youth drivers license

Rising fuel prices

Efficient road & parking pricing

Better walking and cycling

Improved public transit
Telework and delivery services
Carsharing

Changing User Preferences

Less driving
Shared rather than personal vehicles
Autonomous
vehicles are one of many
More walking & cycling
More urban living

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)

Improved user information/navigation

Planning Innovations

Autonomous vehicles

Systems operations
Demand management

Expanded objectives
pricing that affect future travel demands
trends andElectronic
innovations
and costs.

Autonomous vehicles are one of many factors that will affect transport demands and costs in the next
few decades, and not necessarily the most important.

Table 7 (next page) summarizes the functional requirements and planning implications of
various autonomous vehicle impacts, and their expected time period based on Table 5
projections. This suggests that during the 2020s and 30s transport planners and engineers will
primarily be concerned with defining autonomous vehicle performance, testing and reporting
requirements for operation on public roadways. If several years of testing demonstrate
autonomous vehicle benefits, transport professionals may support policies that encourage or
require self-driving capability in new vehicles.
One potential impact during the 2030s or 40s may result from autonomous vehicles ability to
provide convenient and inexpensive taxi and carsharing services, reducing the need for
conventional public transit services and allowing more households to rely on such services and
reduce their vehicle ownership, which could reduce parking requirements. However, modeling
by the International Transport Forum indicates that self-driving taxis and public transit services
are complements rather than substitutes, since transit is more efficient at serving many peakperiod urban trips and so significantly reduces the self-driving taxi fleet size and costs.
Some benefits (higher traffic speeds, reduced congestion and automated intersections) require
dedicated autonomous vehicle lanes. This will raise debates about fairness and cost efficiency,
and human drivers may be tempted to use such lanes, for example, following a platoon of selfdriving vehicles, introducing new risks, regulations and enforcement requirements, probably
starting in the 2030s.
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Table 7

Autonomous Vehicle Planning Impacts By Time Period

Impact

Functional Requirements

Planning Impacts

Time Period

Become legal

Demonstrated functionality and

safety

Define performance, testing and data

collection requirements for automated
driving on public roads.

2015-25

Increase traffic density

by vehicle coordination

Road lanes dedicated to

vehicles with coordinated
platooning capability

Evaluate impacts. Define requirements.

Identify lanes to be dedicated to vehicles
capable of coordinated operation.

2020-40

Independent mobility
for non-drivers

Fully autonomous vehicles

available for sale

Allows affluent non-drivers to enjoy

independent mobility.

2020-30s

Automated
carsharing/taxi

Moderate price premium.

Successful business model.

May provide demand response services in

affluent areas. Supports carsharing.

2030-40s

Independent mobility
for lower-income

Affordable autonomous
vehicles for sale

Reduced need for conventional public

transit services in some areas.

2040-50s

Reduced parking
demand

Major share of vehicles are

autonomous

Reduced parking requirements.

2040-50s

Reduced traffic
congestion

Major share of urban peak

vehicle travel is autonomous.

Reduced road supply.

2050-60s

Increased safety

Major share of vehicle travel is

autonomous

Reduced traffic risk. Possibly increased

walking and cycling activity.

2040-60s

Energy conservation
and emission
reductions

Major share of vehicle travel is

autonomous. Walking and
cycling become safer.

Supports energy conservation and

emission reduction efforts.

2040-60s

Improved vehicle
control

Most or all vehicles are

autonomous

Allows narrower lanes and interactive

traffic controls.

2050-70s

Need to plan for mixed

traffic

Major share of vehicles are

autonomous.

More complex traffic. May justify

restrictions on human-driven vehicles.

2040-60s

Mandated autonomous
vehicles

Most vehicles are autonomous

and large benefits are proven.

Allows advanced traffic management.

2060-80s

Autonomous vehicles will have various impacts on transportation planning.

When autonomous vehicles become a major share of total vehicle travel they may significantly
reduce traffic risk, traffic congestion, parking problems, and provide some energy savings and
emission reductions. Transportation professionals will be involved in technical analyses to
determine their actual benefits, and policy debates concerning whether public policies should
encourage or require autonomous vehicles.
These impacts may vary geographically, with more rapid implementation in areas that are more
affluent (residents can more quickly afford autonomous vehicles), more congested (potential
benefits are greater) and have more public support.

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The timeline below summarizes autonomous vehicle planning impact projections.

Figure 3

Autonomous Vehicle Planning Impacts Time-Line

Study, and where appropriate
support, autonomous vehicle
implementation for specific
applications such as taxi,
carsharing and demand
response services.

Develop performance
and data collection
requirements for
autonomous vehicles
operating on public
roadways.
2010s

2020s
Support large-scale autonomous
vehicle testing. Evaluate their
benefits and costs under actual
operating conditions.

2030s

If autonomous vehicles prove

overall beneficial and are the
majority of vehicles, it may be
possible to change roadway
design and management
practices.

2040s
If autonomous vehicles prove
to be effective and common,
consider dedicating some
highway lanes to their use.

2050s

2060s+

If autonomous vehicles
prove to be very beneficial,
it may be appropriate to
restrict human-driving.

This timeline summarizes how autonomous vehicles are likely to impact transport planning.

An Analogy: Automated Banking Services

As an analogy, consider automated banking service trends. Personal computers first became
available for purchase during the 1970s, the Internet became public during the 1980s,
automated teller machines (ATMs) became common in the 1990s, most households were using
the Internet for personal business activities by the 2000s, and for decades banks have
encouraged customers to use central call centers rather than local offices to answer questions,
yet these technologies have not eliminated the need for local banks with human tellers.
Automated banking can reduce the number of branch offices and employees, but customers
often need to interact with human tellers due to personal preferences, and because it is often
faster and less frustrating, and therefore more productive, than automated, Internet or
telephone options. Automation has had evolutionary rather than revolutionary impacts on bank
activities. Other trends new banking services, changing regulations and new management
practices have equal or greater impacts on bank infrastructure planning.
Autonomous vehicle implementation will probably follow similar patterns: deployment will take
several decades, is unlikely to totally displace current technology, will have costs as well as
benefits, and will only marginally affect infrastructure planning for the foreseeable future. It is
one of several current trends that may marginally reduce road and parking supply requirements
and affect roadway designs, but these changes will probably occur gradually over several
decades, and autonomous vehicles will be just one, and not necessarily the most important, of
many factors that affect road and parking planning practices.

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Conclusions
Recent announcements that autonomous vehicles have safely driven hundreds of thousands of
miles, and major manufactures aspire to sell such vehicles within a few years, have raised
hopes that this technology will soon be widely available and solve transport problems such as
traffic and parking congestion, accidents, and the need to provide mobility for non-drivers.
However, the analysis in this report suggests that autonomous vehicles will have only modest
impacts on transportation planning factors such as road and parking supply, and public transit
demand for the next few decades.
There is considerable uncertainty concerning autonomous vehicle benefits, costs and travel
impacts. Advocates claim that within a few years self-driving vehicles will be reliable and
affordable, providing user savings that offset costs, and they will significantly reduce congestion
and parking congestion, roadway infrastructure costs, accidents and pollution emissions which
justify policies that encourage their implementation. However, autonomous vehicles will
require additional equipment, services and maintenance that will probably increase user costs
by hundreds or thousands of dollars per vehicle-year, and their benefits are unproven.
Autonomous vehicles may allow shared vehicles to replace personal vehicles in some situations.
Their costs are likely to be between carshare ($0.60-1.00 per mile) and human-driven taxis
($2.00-3.00 per mile), depending on their additional cleaning costs, which will make them a cost
effective alternative to owning a vehicle driven less than 2,500 to 6,000 annual miles,
depending on their actual cost profiles.
Advocates may exaggerate net benefits by ignoring new costs and risks, offsetting behavior (the
tendency of road users to take additional risks when they feel safer), rebound effects (increased
vehicle travel caused by faster travel or reduced operating costs, which may increase external
costs), and harms to people who do not to use the technology, such as reduced public transit
service. Benefits are sometimes double-counted, for example, by summing increased safety,
traffic speeds and facility savings, although there are trade-offs between them.
Current automated vehicles can only self-drive under limited conditions: significant technical
and economic obstacles must be overcome before typical households can rely on them for daily
travel. Operating a vehicle on public roads is more complex than flying an airplane since there
are more and closer interactions with often unpredictable objects including other vehicles,
pedestrians, animals, buildings, trash and potholes. If they follow previous vehicle technology
development and deployment patterns, autonomous vehicles will initially be costly and
imperfect. During the 2020s and perhaps the 2030s, autonomous vehicles are likely to be
expensive novelties with limited abilities, requiring licensed drivers at the wheel ready to
intervene if required. It will probably be the 2040s or 2050s before middle-income families can
afford to purchase autonomous vehicles that can safely chauffeur non-drivers, and longer
before such vehicles are affordable to lower-income households. It is possible that a significant
portion of motorists will prefer to drive their vehicles, just as many motorists prefer manual
transmissions, so traffic will mixed, creating new roadway management problems.
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Vehicle innovations tend to be implemented more slowly than for other technological change
due to their high costs, strict safety requirements, and slow fleet turnover. Automobiles
typically cost fifty times and last ten times as long as personal computers and mobile phones, so
consumers seldom purchase new vehicles just to obtain a new technology. Large increases in
new vehicle purchase, expenditure and scrappage rates would be required for most vehicles to
be autonomous before 2050.
Transportation professionals (planners, engineers and policy analysts) have important roles to
play in minimizing autonomous vehicles risks and maximizing benefits. We can help support
their development and testing, and establish performance standards they must meet to legally
operate on public roads. If such vehicles perform successfully and become common they may
affect planning decisions such as the supply, design and operation of roads, parking and public
transit. To be prudent, such infrastructure changes should only occur after autonomous vehicle
benefits, affordability and public acceptance are fully demonstrated. This may vary:
autonomous vehicles may affect some roadways and communities more than others.
A critical question is whether autonomous vehicles increase or reduce total vehicle travel and
associated external costs. It could go either way. By increasing travel convenience and comfort,
and allowing vehicle travel by non-drivers, they could increase total vehicle mileage, but they
may also facilitate carsharing, which allows households to reduce vehicle ownership and
therefore total driving, and reduce some vehicle travel such as cruising for parking spaces.
Another critical issue is the degree potential benefits can be achieved when only a portion of
vehicle travel is autonomous. Some benefits, such as improved mobility for affluent non-drivers
and more convenient taxi and carsharing services, may occur when autonomous vehicles are
relatively uncommon and costly, but many potential benefits require that most or all vehicles
on a road operate autonomously. For example, it seems unlikely that traffic densities can
significantly increase, parking requirements be significantly reduced, traffic lanes be narrowed,
or traffic signals be eliminated until most vehicle on affected roads self-drive.
A key public policy issue is the degree that this technology may harm people who do not use
such vehicles, for example, if increased traffic volumes and speeds degrade walking and cycling
conditions, conventional public transit service declines, or human-operated vehicles are
restricted. Some strategies, such as platooning, may require special lanes dedicated to
autonomous vehicles to maximize potential benefits. There will probably be considerable
debate over the merits and fairness of such policies.
Autonomous vehicle implementation is just one of many trends expected to affect future
transport demands and costs, and therefore planning decisions, and not necessarily the most
important. Its ultimate impacts depend on how it interacts with other trends, such as shifts
from private to shared vehicles. It is probably not a game changer during most of our
professional lives, and is certainly not a paradigm shift since it does not fundamentally change
how we define transport problems; rather, it tends to reinforce the existing automobileoriented planning paradigm.
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