Cfa Level 2 冲刺班讲义
Cfa Level 2 冲刺班讲义
Cfa Level 2 冲刺班讲义
2013CFAII
GoldenFuture
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Content
SS1&2EthicalandProfessionalStandards............................................4
Practice....................................................................................................................5
SS3QuantitativeMethods...................................................................6
Reading11:CorrelationandRegression.................................................................6
Reading12:MultipleRegressionandIssuesinRegressionAnalysis.......................7
Reading13:timeseriesanalysis.............................................................................9
Practice..................................................................................................................10
SS4Economics...................................................................................12
Reading14:Currencyexchangerate:determinationandforecasting.................12
Reading15:EconomicGrowthandinvestmentdecision.....................................13
Reading16:EconomicsofRegulation...................................................................14
Practice..................................................................................................................15
SS5~7FinancialReportingandAnalysis.............................................16
Reading17:Inventories.........................................................................................16
Reading18:LongLivedAssets..............................................................................18
Reading19:IntercorporateInvestments..............................................................23
Reading20:Employeecompensation...................................................................27
Reading21:Multinationaloperations..................................................................30
Reading22:Thelessonswelearn.........................................................................32
Reading23:Evaluatingfinancialreportingquality...............................................33
Reading24:integrationoffinancialstatementanalysistechniques....................35
V2P417 3 CASE ...............................................36
Practice..................................................................................................................38
SS8&9CorporateFinance.................................................................40
Reading25:CapitalBudgeting..............................................................................40
Reading26:CapitalStructure...............................................................................42
Reading27:DividendandShareRepurchase:Analysis........................................43
Reading28:CorporateGovernance......................................................................44
Reading29:MergerandAcquisition.....................................................................45
Practice..................................................................................................................46
SS1012Equity...................................................................................47
Reading30:EquityValuation:ApplicationsandProcesses...................................47
Reading31:ReturnConcepts................................................................................47
Reading32:TheFiveCompetitiveForcesthatShapeStrategy............................48
Reading33:DiscountedDividendValuation.........................................................49
2
Reading34FreeCashFlowValuation...................................................................51
Reading35:MarketBasedValuation:PriceMultiples..........................................53
Reading36:ResidualIncomeValuation................................................................55
Reading37:PrivateCompanyValuation...............................................................56
Practice..................................................................................................................58
SS13Alternativeasset.......................................................................60
Reading38:PrivateRealEstateInvestment..........................................................60
Reading39:PubliclyTradedRealEstateSecurities...............................................62
Reading40:PrivateEquityValuation....................................................................63
Reading41:InvestinginHedgeFundsASurvey................................................65
Practice..................................................................................................................66
SS14&15FixedIncome.......................................................................67
Reading42:FundamentalsofCreditAnalysis.......................................................67
Reading43:TermStructureandVolatilityofInterestRates.................................69
Reading44:ValuingBondswithEmbeddedOptions............................................71
Reading45:MortgageBackedSectoroftheBondMarket..................................72
Reading46:AssetBackedSectoroftheBondMarket.........................................75
Reading47:ValuingMortgageBackedandAssetBackedSecurities...................79
Practice..................................................................................................................81
SS1617Derivativeinvestment..........................................................82
Reading48:ForwardMarketsandContracts........................................................82
Reading49:FuturesMarketsandContracts.........................................................84
Reading50:OptionMarketsandContracts..........................................................86
Reading51:SwapMarketsandContracts.............................................................89
Reading52:InterestRateDerivativeInstruments................................................90
Reading53:UsingCreditDerivatives:AnOverview..............................................91
Practice..................................................................................................................92
SS18PortfolioManagements.............................................................94
Reading54:PortfolioConcepts.............................................................................94
Reading55:Thetheoryofactiveportfoliomanagement.....................................97
Reading 56: The portfolio Management process and the investment policy
statement..............................................................................................................99
Practice..................................................................................................................99
SS1&2EthicalandProfessionalStandards
Ethics 10th Handbook
1.
2.
(B11472 )ExplainethicalresponsibilityrequiredbyCodeandStandards.
I(B)independenceandobjectivity
II(A)materialnonpublicinformation,
III(A)dutiestoclients,
IV(A)dutiestoemployer,
VI(A)disclosureofconflictinterest
3.
4.
5.
(B198 2 )3levelanalysisdeterminePermissibleResearch
6.
(B1100 1 )ResearchObjectivityStandards(ROS),objectives
7.
8.
9.
DutiestoClients
11. (B1119 1 ) TradeAllocation
12. (B1120) response,DutytoClient
4
Practice
( R2 3,14,16,23,28,32,33,34,39,40,41-46,47-52,53-58,59-64
( R3 1-6)
( R4 1-6)
( R10 1-6,7-11)
SS3QuantitativeMethods
Reading11:CorrelationandRegression
16. (B1138)samplecovariance,samplecorrelationcoefficient,ascatterplot
TheCovariance
Positivenegativecovariance
samplecorrelationcoefficient
correlationcoefficient Figure2
Scatterplot Figure35
17. (B1142)limitationstocorrelationanalysis
limitation
outliers,spuriouscorrelation,Nonlinearrelationships
correlationbetweenthepopulationof2variables=0
18. (B1144)
19. (B1146)
linearequation
SSE slopecoefficientintercept,
slopecoefficientintercept
interpretingregressioncoefficients
20. (B1150)SEE
SEE
coefficientofdetermination
coefficientintervalforregressioncoefficient
21. (B1152)ttest
ttestwithn2degreeoffreedoms
22. (B1153)apredictedvalueofdependentvariable
apredictedvalueofdependentvariable
confidenceintervalforapredictedYvalue
23. (B1154)ANOVA
ANOVA
6
SSTRSSSSE
SST=RSS + SSE
Figure8componentsofthetotalvariation
Figure9ANOVAtable
R2 SEE
Ftest,
F
24. (B1159)
Interceptterm
Slopecoefficient
27. B1175
Tstatistictotestsignificanceofindividualcoefficients
Testingstatisticalsignificance
pvalue
pvalue
Oneandtwotailedtests
28. B1179ConfidenceIntervalsforaregressioncoefficient
confidenceintervalforaregressioncoefficient
29. B1181
30. B1181Fstatistic
Fstatistic
31. B1183R2 adjustedR2
32. B1185ANOVAtables
ANOVA
ANOVAtable
ANOVAtable R2FSEE
33. B1190dummyvariables
dummyvariables
quarterlyEPS
Example:Hypothesistestingwithdummyvariables
34. B1194heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity
uncoditionalandconditionalheteroskedasticity?
4effectsofheteroskedasticity
2 detectheteroskedasticity
BPchisquaretest,
generalizedleastsquares
serialcorrelation,positiveandnegative,
Effectofserialcorrelationonregressionanalysis
TYPEIerrors
serialcorrelation?
figure5residualplotsforserialcorrelation
DW
35. B1200multicollinearity
Multicollinearity
Multicollinearity
8
Multicollinearity
36. B1203modelmisspecification
modelmisspecification
modelmisspecification Figure7
sixcommonmisspecificationsoftheregressionmodel
37. B1206qualitativedependentvariables
qualitativedependentvariables
Severaltypesofmodelswhichusequalitativedependentvariable
38. B1207
UnderstandFigure8:assessmentofamultipleregressionmodel
Reading13:timeseriesanalysis
39. B1219Timeseries
40. B1219Lineartrend
41. B1223exponentialgrowth,positiveandnegative
42. B1225linearorloglineartrend
linearorloglineartrend?
linearandloglineartrend figure1
Trendmodel
43. B1226requirementforatimeseriestobecovariancestationary
AR
Covariancestationary
TimeseriesisCovariancestationary
44. B1227ARmodelstructure
HowVariablexregressedonitselfwithalagofoneortwoperiod
Secondorderautoregressivemodel
chainruleofforecasting
AR(1)AR(2)model
45. B1228meanreversion,meanrevertinglevel
meanreversion
meanrevertinglevel
proceduretotestwhetheranARtimeseriesmodeliscorrectlyspecified
46. B1231 insampleandoutofsampleforecast
insampleandoutofsampleforecast
RMSE
9
47. B1231instabilityofcoefficientsoftimeseriesmodels
instabilityofcoefficientsoftimeseriesmodels
48. B1232randomwalkprocess
randomwalk
randomwalkwithadrift
Covariancestationarity
Finitemeanrevertinglevel
unitroot
49. B1233unitroottestingfornonstationarity
timeseriesiscovariancestationary
DickeyFullertest
Firstdifferencing
50. B1237Seasonality
Seasonality
Seasonality
Seasonality
Forecastingwithanautoregressivemodel
51. B1241ARCH
ARCH
ARCH(1)model
ARCH(1)model
52. B1242
Totestwhether2timeserieshaveunitroots,theanalystrunsseparateDFtests
with5possibleresults, 5
Cointegration
Howtotestwhether2timeseriesarecointegrated
DFEGtest
figure2P244
Todeterminewhattypeofmodelisbest 6
Practice
Notes: R11 7,19
Notes: R12 1,9,10,16,17,20
Notes: R13 8,9,12,14,16,17,19,21,22,23
R11 2,8,10,11,12,13,15-20,21-26
R12 3,5,8,11,12,13,15,17-22,23-28
10
R13 1,6,8,9,13,14,15,17,18,19
11
SS4Economics
Reading14:Currencyexchangerate:determinationand
forecasting
53. (B1262)spotexchangerate forwardrate
54. (B1263)dealer spread interbankspread
56. (B1265)
57. (B1268)forwardpremium/discount
58. (B1269)forwardcontract
P270271
59. (B1272)coveredinterestrateparity
IRP rates
P277
62. (B1278) exantePPP
expectedinflation?
RelativePPP
Realexchangerate
P280 PPPIRP
63. (B1281)
Capitalflow
Capitalaccount BOP
12
66. (B1286)MundellFlemingModel
puremonetary Dornbuschovershooting
MundellFlemingModel
PortfolioBalance MundellFlemingModel
68. (B1289)
puremonetary Dornbuschovershooting
MundellFlemingModel
PortfolioBalance MundellFlemingModel
70. (B1290)
71. (B1290)
Reading15:EconomicGrowthandinvestmentdecision
72. (B1306) 6
73. (B1307)
P308 GDP
Alpha constantreturntoscale
Capitaldeepening
SteadystateMPK=Y/K=r
13
P310
P311
76. (B1312)
77. (B1312)
GDP
80. (B1315)
Longtermsteadystategrowthrate
Sustainable growth of output per capita Sustainable growth rate of output
P316
81. (B1317)
82. (B1317)ConvergenceHypotheses
83. (B1318)
R&D knowledgecapital
84. (B1318)
Reading16:EconomicsofRegulation
85. (B1327)Regulation regulator
Independent regulators not funded by the government
SRO Independent regulators Independent regulators SRO
Regulator
14
86. (B1328)
SRO regulator
FINRA SRO
87. (B1328)
(P329)
(P329)
RegulatorycapturetheoryRegulatorycompetition Regulatoryarbitrage
Intervention
90. (B1330) CommerceAndFinancialMarkets
91. (B1331)
92. (B1332) cost&benefit
regulatoryburden
sunsetclause
93. (B1332)
Practice
(Notes B1 P297-4,5)
(Notes B1 P298-8)
(Notes B1 P300-15-20)
(Notes B1 P323-1-6)
(Notes B1 P336-1-7)
( R14 1-67-13)
( R15 7-15,16-21)
( R16 1-6)
15
SS5~7FinancialReportingandAnalysis
Reading17:Inventories
94. (B211)
IFRS , 3
GAAP 4
:LIFO IFRS
95. (B211) SpecificIdentificationMethod
jewelryandautomobiles
96. (B211) LIFO
UStaxcoderequiresfirmsthatuseLIFOfortaxpurposesalsouseLIFOforfinancial
reporting.
97. (B212) 3
FIFO specificidentification 2
LIFO weightedaveragecost 2
LIFOReserve,footnotes
LIFO FIFO
FIFOinventory=LIFOinventory+LIFOreserve
101. (B215) LIFO BS FIFO BS
102. B216 LIFO FIFO
FIFO COGS = LIFO COGS (ending LIFO reserve beginning LIFO reserve)
LIFOliquidation
liquidation LIFO
liquidation,
105. (B222) LIFOBSIS FIFOBSIS
LIFOBSIS FIFOBSIS
FIFO BS current
asset and total asset
IFRS lowerofcostandNRV
NRV= S selling cost completion cost
GAAP, lowerofcostandMarket
17
108. (B224) 2
109. (B225)
BS NRV unrealizedG/L
110. (B225)LIFOFIFO
111. (B227)
S g >gSale,
Reading18:LongLivedAssets
112. (B234)anexpenditure, capitalized,
113. (B234) BS
114. (B234) NI CFO
115. (B235) NIequity
NI NI
18
116. (B236)
IS
CFI
117. (B237)
118. (B238)
123. (B242)
MACRS
DTL
124. (B242) 3
NI
125. (B243)3
19
3 NIMargin
Over the entire period, depreciation expense, tax expense, pretax income, net income, and net
profit margin are unaffected by the depreciation method chosen
126. (B243)
127. (B245)
128. (B245)
129. (B245)
130. (B245)
131. (B246) IFRS
recoverableamountFVsellingcost valueinuse
IFRS
132. (B246) GAAP
GAAP 2
recoverabilitytest
measuringtheloss
133. (B247) 2
134. (B247)
135. (B248)
GAIN BS OCI
LOSS IS
138. (B249)
139. (B250)averageageaveragedepreciablelife
140. (B251) Financelease operatinglease
141. (B251) leasing
142. B251 IFRS GAAP financelease
20
PV
146. B254 operatingleaseandfinancelease
21
149. B256
GAAP 5 5
150. B257
implicitinterestrate,
D/E
IRR NPV
151. B258GAAP 4 2
lessorhassubstantiallycompletedperformance
152. B258Saletypeleaseanddirectfinancinglease
Saletypelease:PVofleasepayment>carryingvalueofasset
directfinancinglease:PVofleasepayment=carryingvalueofasset
153. B258 Saletypelease
CF CF
154. B259 directfinancinglease
CF CF
155. B259 directfinancinglease
156. B260OperatingleaseandDirectfinancinglease
P61 leasee
In the early years of the lease, the income reported from the direct financing lease is higher than
the income reported from the operating lease. Just like an amortizing loan, the interest is higher
in the early years. This situation reverses in the later years of the lease.
22
Reading19:IntercorporateInvestments
157. B267 IntercorporateInvestments
20%
IFRS financialasset 3 :
GAAP financialasset 4 :
HTMAFSHFTDesignatedatfairvalue
159. B268 Investmentinassociates
Investmentinassociates 20%50%,
20%
Businesscombination 50%
50%
50%
161. B268 JointVentures
JointVentures:2
IFRS
GAAP
23
163. B269HTM BS
164. B269HFT
BSIS
165. B269Designatedatfairvalue: BSIS
166. B269AFS BSIS
167. B270 UnrealizedG/LforAFSfromforeignexchangemovement 2
GAAP IFRS
HFT unrealizedG/L
169. B271
24
atleastonelosseventhasoccurred
itseffectonthesecuritysfuturecashflowscanbeestimatedreliably
liquid market
174. B272Equitysecurity
175. B272HTM
176. B272AFS
IFRS GAAP
177. B273 financialasset
178. B273
20%50%
proportionateshareofearningDividend
179. B274
30%
FV
writtenup
183. B277 Investorandinvestee
downstreamsale ,
184. B278 NImarginratio
Investee 100%
Investee marginratio
185. B278 GAAP 4
186. B279 Poolingofinterestmethod Acquisitionmethod
Poolingofinterestmethod
2001 2
Acquisitionmethod
187. B282partialandfullgoodwill
USGAAP
IFRS
188. B283 GOODWILL
GOODWILL=- FV of
Fullgoodwillmethod: FV
Partialgoodwillmethod: FV
Goodwill
2 goodwill
IFRS: > recoverable amount
GAAP
GAAP FV FV
191. B286 Barginpurchase
IFRSGAAP 2008 12 15
gain
26
192. (B286)JV
IFRS GAAP
193. (B287)SPE VIE
SPE
VIE
SPE VIE
194. (B288) SPE
SPE
sponsor
195. (B288) QSPE 2
QSPE,GAAP: sponsor ,
QSPE,IFRS:
196. (B289) 3
Reading20:Employeecompensation
197. (B2102)DCplan DBplan
198. (B2103) DBplan
199. (B2103)fundedstatusoverfundedunderfunded
200. (B2103)otherpostemploymentbenefit
DB
201. (B2103)PBO
currentservicecost
interestcost
pastprior servicecost
changesinactuarial
27
Benefitpaid
202. (B2104)PBO
fundedstatus assetceiling
presentvalueoffutureeconomic fundedstatus
totalperiodicpensioncost
205. B2108currentsevicecost interestcost
currentcost
Expectedreturnonplanassets
28
207. (B2109)AmortizationofactuarialG/L:
208. (B2109)Amortizationofpastservicecost:
GAAP: OCI
IFRS
209. (B2109)GAAP actuarial gain or loss or past service cost
smoothed
210. (B2110)
211. (B2110)pensionexpensepresentation
GAAP singleline
IFRS
212. (B2110)capitalizingpensioncost
PBO
214. (B2111)Figure5Effectofchangingpensionassumptionsonpensionexpense
215. (B2111)Ultimatehealthcaretrendrate
29
postemploymentbenefitobligation?
Postemploymenthealthcareplans
216. (B2112)
//
IFRS GAAP
217. (B2113)Reclassifyingpensionexpense
218. (B2114)cashflowrelatedinformation
219. (B2115)Sharebasedcompensation
220. (B2115) sharebasedcompensation
AccountingforsharebasedcompensationissimilarunderIFRSandU.S.GAAP.
stock option compensation expense for stock options was typically based on the
intrinsicvaluemethod.
6 input FV
221. (B2116)stockgrants,stockappreciationrightsphantomstock
StockgrantsbasedonFV, 3
Reading21:Multinationaloperations
222. (B2125)localfunctionalfunctionalcurrency presentationreporting currency
G/L
unrealizedG/L I/S
224. (B2127)
225. (B2127)2
226. (B2128)Figure12
227. (B2129)3
228. (B2129) currentmethodandtemporalmethod,
2
229. (B2130)currentmethodI/SBS
30
CTA, BS
230. (B2130)temporalmethodI/SBS
remeasurement G/L
current
231. (B2130)2
Currentmethod: netassetposition
Temporalmethod: netmonetaryassetorliability
232. (B2131) figure2
233. (B2133)2 ISBS , figure3
234. (B2133) Currentratemethod
NI, BS RE CTA
Pure income statement and pure balance sheet ratios are unaffected by the
applicationofthecurrentratemethod.
239. (B2141)MixedB/SorI/Sratios
mixedratioscalculatedfromfinancialstatementstranslatedusingthecurrentrate
method will be different than the same ratio calculated from the local currency
statementsbeforetranslation.
Mixedratios
P143 3
Pure balance sheet and pure income statement ratios will be the same.
If the foreign currency is depreciating, translated mixed ratios (with an income statement item in
the numerator and an end-of-period balance sheet item in the denominator) will be larger than
the original ratio.
If the foreign currency is appreciating, translated mixed ratios (with an income statement item in
the numerator and an end-of-period balance sheet item in the denominator) will be smaller than
the original ratio.
241. (B2145)Hyperinflationaryenvironment
242. (B2145)GAAPIFRS
CTA NI
Cleansurplusanddirtysurplus
Reading22:Thelessonswelearn
245. B2160 transparency
The financial footnotes and the management discussion and analysis (MD&A)
sectionarewheremostofthedetailandexplanationsarefound.
NostandardsastotheformatandreadabilityofthefootnotesandMD&A.
247. B2161SecondLesson:BeSkeptical
Beskepticalwhenafirmsearningsaregrowingfasterthantheindustryandthe
economyoverthelongrun.
Earnings growth is not sustainable in the long run without growth in operating
cashflow
248. B2161ThirdLesson:EvaluatetheDisclosures:
The terms earnings and net income are often used synonymously. However, the
termsarenotnecessarilythesame.
EBITDAEBITIncomefromcontinuingoperationsNetincome
249. B2162FourthLesson:CheckforCashFlow
trends in cash flow from operations can be more reliable than trends in
earnings
250. B2162FifthLesson:UnderstandtheRisks
ThemorecommonbusinessandfinancialrisksFirmsface
251. B2163
Firmsoftenusederivativestomanagetheserisks.
32
G/L IS
hedge
hedge FVhedge CFhedge Netinvestmenthedgeofforeignsubsidiary
UnrealizedG/L BS
Reading23:Evaluatingfinancialreportingquality
253. (B2169) cashbasisandaccrualbasisaccounting
P169
applylowerweighttoaccrualcomponent
Lowerpersistencyisnotalwaystheresultofstrategicmanipulation
257. (B2172)
258. (B2173)Mechanismsdesignedtopreventstrategicmanipulation
259. (B2174) earningquality
earningquality
2 earningquality
BSapproachNOA/operatingassets/operatingliabilities
CFapproach
260. (B2176) BSCFapproach
thehighertheaccrualratio,thelowertheearningquality
261. (B2178)meanreversioninearning,
meanreversioninearning,
Becauseofmeanreversion,analystsmustunderstandthatextremeearnings(high
orlow)shouldnotbeexpectedtocontinueindefinitely
Whenearningsarelargelycomprisedofaccruals,meanreversionwilloccureven
faster.
262. (B2179) 3
33
misstating revenue/accelerating
Nonoperatingrevenue
revenue/Misclassifying
Nonrecurring
or
IgnoringCF,ManagingCF
266. (B2183)
misstatingrevenue/acceleratingrevenue/MisclassifyingNonrecurringor
Nonoperatingrevenue
DSO
267. (B2185)Delayedexpenses
Delayedexpenses
DOH
Coreoperatingmargin
268. (B2187) offbalancesheetfinancing
offbalancesheetfinancing
implicitinterestrate
269. (B2189) GOODWILL
Analysts should compare the growth of operating leases with the firms asset
growth.
Bealertforadecreaseindiscretionaryspending,especiallynearyearend.
Financialleverage investmentasset,
Analysisoftheassetbaserequiresanexaminationofchangesinthecomposition
ofbalancesheetassetsovertime.
274. (B2202)
Determine if the capital structure can support future obligations and strategic
plans by analyzing the components of longterm capital. Some liabilities dont
necessarilyresultinanoutflowofcash.
DTL
DTL
275. (B2204)Segmentdisclosures
Figure810,
276. (B2206) Earning
Earnings can be disaggregated into cash flow and accruals using a balance sheet
approach and a cash flow statement approach. The lower the accruals ratio, the
highertheearningsquality.
Earningquality
Earnings are considered higher quality when confirmed by cash flow. Cash flow
can be compared to operating profit by adding back cash paid for interest and
taxestooperatingcashflow.
Figure1112, accrualratios
P207accrualratios
CF EBIT Figure1315
Thestandalonemarketvalueofafirm
AnimpliedP/Emultiple P213
P210 25 NI
P210 211 Thunderbird support and concerns,
278. (B2211)
Thebalancesheetshouldbeadjustedforoffbalancesheetfinancingactivities.
P212 Figure16
P212
279. (B2213)
Usersmustbeawareoftheproposedchangesinaccountingstandardsbecauseof
thefinancialstatementeffectsandthepotentialimpactonafirmsvaluation.
V2P417 3 CASE
280. (V2362)
EXHIBIT1
NOTE200
281. (V2363)CASE1
NESTLE
6
Phase1
Phase2
Phase3 7
282. (V2364)
P364
removetheeffectofinvestmentinassociatesfromBS
andIS
36
04 P423
EXHIBIT24
EXHIBIT5
EXHIBIT6ExpandedDuPontAnalysis
283. (V2371)AssetBasecomposition
EXHIBIT8
P372 EXHIBIT9
284. (V2372)capitalstructureanalysis
EXHIBIT10 financialleverage
EXHIBIT11
285. (V2374)SegmentanalysisandCapitalallocation
EXHIBIT1214 2007
EXHIBIT15 concerns,
EXHIBIT1621
286. (V2380)accrualandearningquality
EXHIBIT2223 accrualratios
287. (V2381)CashflowRelationships
EXHIBIT2427
P384 EXHIBIT27
288. (V2384)Decompositionandanalysisofthecompanyvaluation
EXHIBIT28 EXHIBIT28
P385 2 EBIT
EXHIBIT2930 ASSOCIATE
289. (V2388)Phase5:conclusionsandrecommendation
Supportandcauses
37
290. (V2389)Followup
291. (V2389)Case2
Phase34EXHIBIT3132 leasemultiplier11%
EXHIBIT3334
Phase5conclusionandrecommendation
Phase6Followup
292. (V2393)Case3
QSPE BS
Phase1
Phase2 MD&A
Phase34EXHIBIT3536 MD&A
leverage
Phase5
Phase6Followup
Practice
(Notes B2 P31-3,4,5,6)
(Notes B2 P64-2,3,5,7)
(Notes B2 P92-1,2,11,13,16,17,24,25)
(Notes B2 P119-3,5,7,8,10,11,14,15,17-19
(Notes B2 P151-3,4,5,7-9,14,17
(Notes B2 P166-2,3,4,5)
(Notes B2 P193-2,5,6,11)
(Notes B2 P215-3,5,6,7,8,10)
( V2 p36-4-6,7,8,12,13,15,19,20)
( V2 p96-1,4,8,9,12,13)
( V2 p158-2,4-6,7,9,11,12,16-18,19,20,26,27,29,30)
( V2 p205-2,5,6,7,9,,11,12,13,14-19))
( V2 p268-1,5,6,9,11,15,19,20,21,24))
38
( V2 p293-1-6)
( V2 p355-2,4,6-8, 9,10,14,15,16-19,21)
V2 p398-4,5,8, 9,10-15,20)
39
SS8&9CorporateFinance
Reading25:CapitalBudgeting
293. (B3226)Capitalprojectscanbeclassifiedas
Replacementdecisiontomaintainthebusiness
Replacementdecisionforcostreductionpurpose
Expansionprojectsforexitingproduct
Expansionprojectsfornewproduct
Mandatoryinvestment
Otherprojects
Expansion project & Replacement project
294. (B3227) 5
Decisionarebasedoncashflows,notaccountingincome
Cashflowarebasedonopportunitycosts
Thetimingofcashflowsisimportant
Cashflowareanalyzedonanaftertaxbasis
Financingcostsarereflectedintheprojectsrequiredrateofreturn
295. (B3228)ModifiedAcceleratedCostRecoverySystem(MACRS)
296. (B3229) expansion capital project replacement capital project initial
investment outlay, aftertax operation cash flows terminal year aftertax
nonoperatingcashflow
investment in net working capital ()
297. (B3236) (5 )
298. (B3237) ,EAA ,
P237-239
Hardcapitalrationing
Softcapitalrationing
300. (B3241)
Sensitivityanalysis
Scenarioanalysis
MonteCarlosimulation
40
Timingoptions
Abandonmentoptions
Expansionoptions
Flexibilityoptions
Fundamentaloptions
303. (B3246) realoption NPV
overall NPV = project NPV (based on DFC) option cost + option value
P246
Economicincome=cashfloweconomicdepreciation
Economicdepreciation=beginningmarketvalueendingmarketvalue
economicincome=PV1+CF1PV0=PV0*r
economicprofit=NOPAT$WACC=EBIT(1t)WACC*capital
Residualincome=netincomeequitycharge=NItreBt1
Residualincome accrualbasis
Claimvaluationapproach: debt equity CF ,
NPV MVA
t 1
NPV
t 1
41
RI t
(1 re )t
EPt
(1 WACC )t
Reading26:CapitalStructure
307. (B3273)MMtheory
MMproposition1withouttaxes:capitalstructureirrelevance5 (P274)
MMproposition2withouttaxes:higherleverageraisesthecostofequity
re WACC (WACC rd )(
debt
)
equity V EBIT
WACC
MMproposition1(withtaxes):valueismaximizedat100%debt
VL VU td
MMproposition2(withtaxes):WACCisminimizedat100%debt
re R 0 ( R0 rd ) 1 TC (
EBIT (1 - t )
debt
) VL =
WACC
equity
Costoffinancialdistress
Agencycostofequity
Costofasymmetricinformation
Peckingordertheory
target (P283)
311. (B3281)Roleofdebtrating,D/Edebtratingdefaultriskcostofequity
312. (B3282) 3
Scenario analysis
313. (B3283)
Institutionalandlegalfactors
Financialmarketsandbankingsystemfactors
Microeconomicfactors
P284 common law civil law N/A
Reading27:DividendandShareRepurchase:Analysis
314. (B3292)
Dividendirrelevancetheory
Birdinhand
Taxaversion
315. (B3293)
Unexpecteddividendincreasepositivesignal
Unexpecteddividenddecreaseoromissionsnegativesignal
316. (B3294)Clienteleeffect
Tax consideration
DP = Pw - Px = D(1 - TD ) / (1 - TCG )
3
317. (B3295)Agencyissues
318. (B3296) 6
319. Tax
Doubletaxation
Effectivetaxrate=corporatetaxrate+(1corporatetaxrate)X(individualtaxrate)
Splittaxratesystem
Taximputationsystem
43
P299-301
320. (B3299)
Stabledividendpolicy;
Constantdividendpayoutratiopolicy;
Residualdividendpolicy
321. (B3300)Stabledividendpolicy Targetpayoutadjustmentmodel
Expected dividend=(previous dividend)+ [(expected increase in EPS) X (target payout ratio) X
(adjustment factor)]
322. (B3300)Constantdividendpayoutratiopolicy
323. (B3301)Residualdividendmodel
Longtermresidualdividendmodel
324. (B3302)Cashdividendsv.s.Repurchasingshares
(P305)
325. (B3305) ()
326. (B3306)Dividendsafety
Dividendpayoutratio÷ndcoverageratio
FCFEcoverageratio
Reading28:CorporateGovernance
327. (B3318)corporategovernance 4
328. (B3319)
Soleproprietorships
Partnerships
Corporations
4 (P320)
329. (B3320)principleagentproblem
managers&shareholders, directors&shareholders
principalagentproblem
330. (B3322)boardofdirectors
8
44
boardofdirector
333. ESGfactors
2013
Reading29:MergerandAcquisition
334. (B3338)M&A
Typesofmergers
Formsofintegration
335. (B3339)merger
Tax benefit tax benefit
336. (B3341)EPSBootstrapping
P342
341. (B3347)takeoverdefensemechanisms
Preoffer: poisonpill,poisonput,goldenparachutes
343. (B3352) ,3
45
P364
Divestitures
Equitycarveouts
Spinoffs
Splitoffs
Liquidations
347. (B3371) Divestitures (4 )
Practice
( R25 1,5,6-8,9-14,15-20,21-26,27-32,33-38,39-44,45-50)
( R26 3,6,8-13,14-19)
( R27 4,6,9,11,12-14)
( R28 9-14,15-19,20-25)
( R29 1-6,7-12,13-18,19-24)
46
SS1012Equity
Reading 30: Equity Valuation: Applications and
Processes
348. (B3P9,Los30a)Intrinsicvalue
353. (B313,Los30f)Absoluteandrelativevaluationmodels.
( Benchmark)
Multiples( Benchmark)
Reading31:ReturnConcepts
356. (B321,Los31a)
holdingperiodreturn
realizedreturnandexpectedreturn
requiredreturn,discountrate
internalrateofreturn
the return from convergence of price to intrinsic value price value
47
Historicalestimates
historical forward-looking
358. (B327Los31c)
CAPM ()
multifactormodels(FFM,PSM)()
thebuildupmethod
FFM PSM PSM
FFM 3
359. (B332,Los31d)(3 )
forpubliccompanies,adjustedbetaforpubliccompanies
forthinlytradedstocksandnonpubliccompanies.
adjusted beta for public companies Beta drift(P33)
unlevered beta levered beta (P34)
360. (B334,Los31e)
361. (B334,Los31f).
countryspreadmodel
countryriskratingmodel
362. (B335,Los31g) WACC
363. (B335,Los31h) WACC
RequiredReturn
WACC Equity required rate of return
complementaryproducts services
366. (B347Los32c)
( Los 3
)
367. (B348Los32d)
CapitalizingonChangesintheIndustry(forward/backwardintegration;externalforces)
CreatingChangesintheIndustryStructure.(industryvalueaddedoverall)
Reading33:DiscountedDividendValuation
368. (B361Los33a) DDM,FCF,Residualincome
model,
369. (B364Los33b)DDM ()
one-period =
V0
D1 P1
1 r
V0
D1 D 2 P 2
2
2
1 r 1 r
V0
D1 D 2 ...... D n P n
1
2
n
1 r 1 r
1 r
two-period =
multi-period =
370.
DDM
GGM
Twostaged
HModel
ThreeStaged
D1
rg
V, D1, r, g
P102
P0 D1 / E1 1 b
E1
rg
rg
P0 D0 1+g/E 0 (1 b) g
E0
rg
rg
n D 1 g S t D0 1 g S n 1 g L
V0 0
t
n
1
r
1
r
r
g
t
1
L
, ,
378. (B377Los33j)
initialgrowthphase
transitionphase
maturephase.
Earnings growth, Capital investment, Profit margin, FCFE, ROE v.s. Required Return, Dividend
Payout, Model
GGM
Marketmultipleapproach
380. (B379Los33l)/ DDM HModel
H-model , high growth for a short period + immediately fall back to a long-run level
V0
50
D0 1 g L D0 H g S g L
r gL
r gL
r 0 1 g L H g S g L g L
P0
(H = t/2)
381. (B383)threestageDDM 2 , 3 , 2
; Hmodel.
P83
Reading34FreeCashFlowValuation
386. (B3107 ) FCFF FCFE
387. (B3108Los34a) FCFF WACC , FCFE re , equity value = firm
valuemarketvalueofdebt
FCFF WACC FCFE
re
388. (B3109Los34b)FCF
FCFE ;
FCFE , , FCFF
389. (B3109Los34c) FCFF FCFE
NI
EBIT
EBITDA
CFO
currentasset cash&equivalent
currentliability notespayable¤tportionoflongtermdebt
FCFE:
FCFE = FCFF Int(1-t) + Net Borrowing
FCFE = NI +NCC WCInv FCInv + Net Borrowing
Net Borrowing = DR (FCInv Dept) + DR WCInv
(B3-115) FCFE = NI (1 DR)(FCInv Dept) (1 DR) WCInv
FCFEControl
DDMMinority.
397. (B3121Los34g) FCFF&FCFE (dividends/share
repurchase/shareissues/changeinleverage)
FCFF FCFE
FCFE/FCFF
402. (B3133Los34l) terminal value 2 : singlestage model multiple
approach
Reading35:MarketBasedValuation:PriceMultiples
403. (B3151Los35a) justifiedpricemultiple :
themethodofcomparables
themethodbasedonforecastedfundamentals(valueisequaltothepresentvalueof
expectedfuturecashflowdiscountedattheappropriateriskadjustedrateofreturn)
404. (B3153Los35b) justifiedpricemultiple?
actual multiple justified price multiple ? ( stock )
trailingP/E leadingP/E
407. (B3154Los35d)P/Bratio
trailingP/B leadingP/B
408. (B3156Los35d)P/Sratio
P/Sratio
409. (B3158Los35d)P/CFratio
P/CFratio .
: cash flow
Earnings-plus-noncash-charges (CF) = NI + depreciation + amortization
Adjusted CFO = CFO + [(net cash interest outflow) * (1-tax rate)]
FCFF
EBITDA
410. (B3158Los35d)DividendYieldratio
trailingD/P leadingD/P
411. (B3159Los35e)underlyingEPS normalizedEPS
MethodsofhistoricalEPS
MethodsofaveragereturnonEquitypreferred
53
highPEGratio
PEG ratio
P/E ratio
g
Terminal value in year n = leading P/E ratio forecasted earnings in year n+1
Terminal value in year n = trailing P/E ratio forecasted earnings in year n
1. earnings-plus-charges(CF)
2. Adjusted cash flow(adjusted CFO)
3. Free cash flow to equity(FCFE)
4. Earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)
420. (B3176Los35o) ()
1.Unexpectedearnings(orearningssurprise)=reportedEPSexpectedEPS
2.Standardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE)=earningssurprise/standarddeviationof
earningssurprise
3. 1 Relativestrengthindicators
54
Reading36:ResidualIncomeValuation
423. (B3195Los36a) residual income, , residual income
accounting income ( accounting income equity investors
return)
424. (B3196Los36a) EVA
Economic value added (EVA) = NOPAT (WACC invested capital) = [EBIT (1 t)] - $WACC
free cash flow NOPLAT
NOPAT , operating lease capital lease
426. (B3198Los36b)residualincomemodel
RI t E t r B t 1 ROE r B t 1
DDM,
FCFF,FCFE
P198 , RI, RI , forecast BV
per share
, P198 2010 Div
ROE r B0
V0 B0
rg
&
55
ROE r B0
rg
B ROE r
gr 0
P/B,
V0 B0
1.RIisexpectedtopersistatitscurrentlevelforever.
2.RIisexpectedtodropimmediatelytozero
3.RIisexpectedtodeclinetoalongrunavglevelconsistentwithmatureindustry
4.RIisexpectedtodeclineovertimeasROEfallstothecostofequity
433. (B3209Los36i)RI/DDM/FCF
434. (B3210Los36j) RI RI
435. (B3210Los36k)RI
1.CleanSurplusViolations
2.ValuationsfromFairValue
3.IntangibleAssetEffectonBookValue
4.NonrecurringItemsandOtherAggressiveAccountingPractices
5.InternationalAccountingDifferences.
436. (B3213Los36l) RI overvalued, fairly valued or
undervalued?
Reading37:PrivateCompanyValuation
437. (B3227Los37a)
Company-Specific Factors, Stock-Specific Factors.
438. (B3229Los37b)
56
()
439. (B3230Los37c)
1.FairMarketValue
2.FairValueforFinancialreporting
3.Fairvalueforlitigation
4.MarketValue
5.InvestmentValue
6.IntrinsicValue
440. (B3231Los37d)
(incomeapproaches)
(Marketapproaches)
(AssetBasedapproaches)
DDM/FCF
P232 (Early in Life~asset-based
approach/High Growth Phase~income approach/Mature~market approach)
1.TheFCFMethod
2.TheCapitalizedCashFlowMethod(P239 )
SizePremiums
Availabilityandcostofdebt
Acquirerv.s.Target
ProjectionRisk
LifecycleStage
444. (B3241Los37h) Requiredrateofreturn
1.CAPM
2.ExpandedCAPM
3.BuildUpMethod
57
445. (B3243Los37i)
Publiccompanymethod(GPCM)( controlpremium
MI)
Guidelinetransactionsmethod(GTM)
Priortransactionmethod(PTM)
446. (B3249Los37j)assetbasedmodel
447. (B3249Los37k)(P283 )
1
DLOC 1
1 control premium
total discount=1- (1 DLOC )(1 DLOM )
448. (B3287Los37l)
1
Practice
(Notes B3 R30-4,6)
(Notes B3 R31-1,5)
(Notes B3 R32-4,5,11,12,14,15,16,17,18,20)
(Notes B3 R33-2,6,9,12,17,18,19,20,21,22,24)
(Notes B3 R34-1,3,5,6,9,10,13,14,15)
(Notes B3 R35-5,5,7,8,13,15)
(Notes B3 R36-2,6,7,8,9,10)
(Notes B3 R37-4,5,9,10,16)
( R30 8)
( R31 1,3,4,5)
( R32 1,2)
( R33 1,2,6,8,10,12,21)
( R34 1.C,2,5,13,14,20)
( R35 1,2,3,6.B,8,11.B,17)
( R36 2,7,11)
58
( R37 1,4,5,6,13)
59
SS13Alternativeasset
Reading38:PrivateRealEstateInvestment
449. (B49)
PrivateinvestmentCREForpublicmarketinvestmentREITREOC
DebtorEquity
(B410)
450.
REIT REIT
451.
(B411) property
Residentialproperties
Nonresidentialrealestateproperties:
452.
(B414)
453.
(B412)
454.
(B415) incomecostandsalesapproach
Highestandbest:useofavacantsiteistheusethatproducesthehighestimplied
landvalue.
455.
60
(B417) Directcapitalizationmethod
NOIP18
value
ARYallriskyield
rent 1
ARY
StabilizedNOI P20
grossincomemultiplier
sales price
gross income
(B421) Discountedcashflowmethod
456.
NOI1
NOI1
value V0
r - g cap rate
r rate required by equity investors for similar properties
g growth rate of NOI
r - g cap rate
61
Terminalcaprate
differentleasestructure termandreversionapproach layer
method
P22P23P24
457.
(B424) DCF 7
458.
459.
(B426) costapproach
Replacementcost&Reproductioncost
460.
461.
(B430) reconciliationofvalue
462.
(B431)
463.
Repeatsalesindex hedonicindex
(B432) privaterealestateinvestment
464.
LeveragedIRR UnleveragedIRR
Reading39:PubliclyTradedRealEstateSecurities
465.
62
(B442) publiclyTradedRealEstateSecurities
REITs REOCs
466.
467.
(B445) REITs 5
GDP
468.
(B446) REITs
469.
(B446) REITs 9
470.
(B447) REITs 8
471.
NAVPS REITs
P52
472.
473.
PE
Reading40:PrivateEquityValuation
474.
(B469) PE privateequityinvestorprivateequityfurmfund
portfoliocompany
475.
(B471) PE 3 PE portfolio
companies 7 controlmechanism
(B472) venturecapital buyout (P73Figure2)
476.
VC Buyout
477.
63
Buyout LBO
(B476) Exitvalue
478.
P77
Buyout
(B478) PreandPostMoneyValuation
479.
PRE+INV=POST
The ownership proportion of the VC is =INV/POST
480.
(B479) VC Buyout
481.
(B480) exitroutes
482.
(B481) waterfalls
LimitedPartnership
PrivateEquityFundTerms:(P8182)
NetAssetValue:
1. Determine NAV
2. Issues in calculations
3. Due diligence of PE fund investments
64
483.
(B486) :
PostInvestmentInvestorExpectations(JCurve)
GeneralRiskFactors
P87 10
CostsofPEinvesting
P87-88
(B488)
484.
485.
(B493)
singlefinancingrounds
multiplefinancingrounds
intermsofIRR
486.
(B498) VC :
1.AdjustingDiscountRate
2.AdjustingTerminalValueusingScenarioAnalysis.
Reading41:InvestinginHedgeFundsASurvey
487.
488.
489.
(B4120)hedgefundperformance biases:BiasesinHFindices(3 )
StyleindicesasInappropriateBenchmark
490.
(B4121)hedgefund factormodels?Alpha
491.
492.
(B4123)HF replicationstrategies (3 )
493.
(B4124) HF (3 )
494.
(B4125) FOF HF
65
Practice
(Notes B4 P38-4,5,6,8,9,10)
(Notes B4 P63-1,3,7,9)
(Notes B4 P106-4,5,6,7,9,10,11,16,30,37)
(Notes B4 P129-1,3,6,7,9,10)
( P65-1,2,5,6,9,13,14,17,20,23,26,27)
( P125-1,3,4,6,8,10)
( P174- 7-12)
( P206- 1-6)
66
SS14&15FixedIncome
Reading42:FundamentalsofCreditAnalysis
495. (B4136)crediriskandcreditrelatedrisks
Creditrisk
Defaultrisk
Lossseverity,orlossgivenfault
Spreadriskcreditmigration(ordowngraderisk,marketliquidityrisk)
Expected loss = Default probability * Loss severity given default
Loss severity given default = 1 Recovery rate
496. (B4137)seniorityrankingsofcorporatedebt
Secureddebt
Unsecureddebt
497. (B4138)issuercreditratingsandissuecreditratings
Threemajorcrditratingsagencies:Moodys,S&P,Fitch
Differentcreditratings:TripleA,investmentgrade,noninvestmentgrade
Issuercreditrating
Issueratings
notching
498. (B4139)risksinrelyingonagencyratings
Creditratingsaredynamic
Ratingagenciesarenotperfect.
Eventriskisdifficulttoassess.
Creditratingslagmarketpricing.
499. (B4140)4C
Capacity
P140 Industry fundamentals & Company fundamentals
Covenants
affirmative/negative covenants
negative covenants
Collateral
ABS
67
Character
500. (B4P142)Financialratiosusedincreditanalysis
P142 CF ratio
a)
Leveraged ratios
Coverage ratios
EBITDA/interest expense
EBIT/interest expense
501. (B4148)yieldspread
Yieldspread=liquiditypremium+creditspread
Factorsaffectthespreadsoncorporatebonds
502. (B4148)Returnimpactofspreadchanges
Forsmallspreadchanges:Returnimpactmodifieddurationspread
Creditcurves
503. (B4150)Highyielddebt
(P151-P154) Special considerations of high-yield credit analysis:
a)
b)
c)
d)
68
e)
Covenant analysis
504. (B4154)Sovereigndebt
Framework for evaluating sovereign credit and assigning sovereign debt ratings:
Institutional effectiveness
Economic prospects
International investment
Fiscal flexibility
Monetary flexibility
505. (B4155)Municipaldebt
Gobonds
Revenuebackedbonds
Steepened
Twists
Flattened
Nonparallel
shift
Positive
Butterfly
Negative
Curvature changes1.5%
507. (B4167) US Treasury security returns
(level/slope/curvature) bootstrapping
508. (B4169) curve
69
AllOntheRun
AllOntheRunandSomeOfftheRun
AllTreasuryCouponSecurities/Bills
TreasuryStrips
1.No regulation on the swap market, swap rates in different countries more
comparable
2.Thesupplyandequilibriumpricingdependsonlyonthenumberofparticipants;
notaffectedbytechnicalmarketfactors
3.Swapcurvesacrosscountriesaremorecomparablebecauseofreflectingcredit
risk,nosovereignriskrelatedtogovernmentrisk
pureexpectationtheory
forward rates expected future spot rate
liquiditypreferencetheory
PreferredHabitatTheory
expected future spot rates plus a premium to compensate them for exposure to price and or
reinvestment rate risk in the less-than-preferred habit.
511. (B4176)KeyRateDuration
P146
(B4-147-Los49f) key rate duration.
Barbell/Ladder/Bullet
( X t X )2
var iance
T 1
t 1
T
70
Reading44:ValuingBondswithEmbeddedOptions
513. (B4192)5 arbitragefreebinominaltree
P194-195 .
NominalSpread
ZSpread
OAS
1.UStreasurysecurities
2.Aspecificsectorofthebondmarketwithacertaincreditratinghigherthanthe
issuevalued
3.Aspecificissuer
516. (B4198)backwardinduction binomialinterestratetree .
517. (B4198)callablebondvaluation :
P198 callable bond valuation
P206 putable bond valuation
option free bond valuation .
518. (B4199)optionvalue:
Vcall=Vnoncallable-Vcallable
Vput=Vputable-Vnonputable
OAS
bondvalue 6 ( OAS )
Increaseinstockpricevolatility
Increaseininterestratevolatility
525. (B4213) convertiblebond commonstock return/risk
Reading45:MortgageBackedSectoroftheBondMarket
526. (B4227) mortgage loan fixedrate/levelpayment/fullyamortized mortgaged
72
loan/PrepaymentRisk
Mortgagerate/contractrate
Conventionalmortgage
Fixedrate,levelpayment,fullyamortizedmortgageloans (P197 )
Prepaymentrisk (P198)
527. (B4229) Mortgagepassthroughsecurities
investment/paymentcharacteristics risk
WAM/WAC
agency pass-through?(Ginnie Mae/Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae)
(: Ginnie Mae G, government g, Ginnie Mae
guarantee by )
528. (B4231)measureprepaymentspeeds:
convert the CPR into a monthly prepayment rate called the single monthly
mortalityrate(SMM):
SMM=1-(1-CPR)1/2
The PSA benchmark is expressed as a monthly series of CPRS, the PSA standard
benchmarkisreferredtoas100%PSA,100PSAassumesthefollowinggraduated
CPRs for 30 year mortgages: CPR=0.2% for the first month after origination,
increasingby0.2%permonthupto30months.CPR=6%formonths30to360.
529. (B4234)
Prepayment amount = SMM * (mortgage balance at beginning of month m - scheduled principal
payment for month m)
p234
530. (B4234)factorsaffectingprepayments
1.Prevailingmortgagerates
2.HousingTurnover
3.CharacteristicsofUnderlyingmortgageSeasoning/Propertylocation)
531. (B42235)PrepaymentRisk
ContractionRisk
negative convexity/reinvestment rate risk
73
Extensionrisk.
534. (B4236)sequentialPayCMO
(P237239 )
Principal pay down windows & Z-trench(accrual trench)(P208)
535. (B4240)PlannedAmortizationClass(PAC)CMO
537. (B4244) two types of stripped MBS are PO strips and IO strips, the price/yield
relationshipforIOandPOsecurities
StripedMBS
IOstrips
POstrips
IOs&POs (P245)
74
Debttoservicecoverageratio
LoantoValueratio
540. (B4248)CMBS
CMBS
loanlevelcallprotection
CMBSlevelcallprotection
Reading46:AssetBackedSectoroftheBondMarket
541. (B4258)ABS
ABS
ABS prepaymentandcredittranchingofanABS(P148)
creditenhancement
externalcreditenhancements internalcreditenhancements(
)
75
ABS
External:Corporateguarantees/LetterofCredit/Bondinsurance
Internal:Cashreservefunds/ExcessservicingspreadfundsOvercollateralization
76
HEL
AUTOLOANABS
SLABS
SBA
CREDITCARD
RECEIVABLEBACKEDSECURITIES
77
P269
78
CDO.
CDO are collateralized by a pool of debt obligations comprised of one or more kind of assets.
Cash CDOs can be arbitrage driven or balance-sheet driven. In synthetic CDOs, bondholders
take on the economic risks of the underlying assets but do not take legal ownership of them.
synthetic CDOs (P272)
547. (B4272)CDO :
1.arbitragedriven
( p273-274)
2.balancesheetdriven
Reading47:ValuingMortgageBackedandAssetBacked
Securities
548. (B4283)cashflowyield MBS ABS .
cashflowyield
cashflowyield
cashflowyield (P253)
549. (B4284)thenominalspread
Differences between cash flow yield on MBS and YTM on treasury security
The limitation of using nominal spread to analyze MBS is that we don't know how much of the
nominal spread reflects the signifiant prepayment risk associated with MBS.
550. (B4285)Zspread
The key limitation of the Z-srpead is that it only considers one path of interest rates: the current
Treasury spot rate curve)
MBS ABS (P285)
MBScashflow pathdependence,
MBSpathdependency
553. (B4286) OAS
additional compensation for credit risk, liquidity risk and modeling risk
79
Cheap
Rich
555. (B4291) Effective Duration dealers/vendors
why?(diff.in4 :deltay/prepaymentmodel/OAS/spread)
556. (B4292) convexity
p292-293
557. (B4293) 3
1.Cashflowduration
2.Couponcurveduration
3.Empircalduration
558. (B4295) spread(nominal/Z/OAS)
80
Practice
( R42 5,7,9,10,14,15,16,17,18)
( R43 24,25,26)
( R44 1,5,14,15,18,21,22,23,27-32,33-38)
( R45 1,2,4,5,10,11,13,14,22,23,24,25,29,42-47)
( R46 39-44)
( R47 26-31)
81
SS1617Derivativeinvestment
Reading48:ForwardMarketsandContracts
Los Forward
1. forward (Equity/T-Bond/Currency/FRA)
2.No-Arbitrage Principle
3. Cost-of-Carry Model (Cash and Carry Arbitrage/Reverse Cash and Carry
Arbitrage) Cash and Carry arbitrage when the forward contract is overprice; Forward overpriced
short forward long spot asset borrow money
Cash and Carry arbitrage when the forward contract is underpriced; forward underpriced long
forward short spot asset invest money
(p9-13)derivatives
559. (B513Los48a)FPofzerocouponbond
t=0
t=t<T long short long
FP S 0 (1 R f )T
Vlong St
OR
S0
FP
(1 R f )T
FP
(1 R f )T t
560. (B515Los48b)FPofequityforwardcontracts(dividendandnondividend)
Dividend Long
82
stockindex
p16-20
FP
]
(1 Rf )(T t)
St
e
e (T t )
][
FP
e
Rfc ( T t)
( Rcf c )T
( S 0 e
)e
R cf T
where :
R cf continuously compounded risk-free rate
1.Forwardcontractonafixedincomesecurity
2.FRA
3.Forwardcontractonacurrency
( t=0/t=t/t=1 )
FRA FRA (P22)
562. (B520)FPandcontractvalueofforwardcontractoncouponpayingbond:
FP
]
(1 Rf )(T t)
564. (B526)Pricingcurrencyforwardcontracts
FT (currency forward contract)=S0
83
(1 RDC )T
(1 RFC )T
St
Ft
][
]
(T t )
(1+R FC )
(1+R DC )(T t )
t
R CFC (T t )
][
t
R CDC (T t )
Reading49:FuturesMarketsandContracts
(Future Market Los ) future/forward
84
netcosts=storagecostsconvenienceyield
netbenefit=yieldontheasset+convenienceyield
571. (B543Los48e,f) backwardation/Contango normalbackwardation/normal
contango
Normal backwardation: futures price< expected spot price
Normal contango: futures price>expected spot price.
574. (B547Los48h)futurespricing
1.TreasuryBondFutures
2.StockFutures
3.EquityIndexFutures
4.CurrencyFutures
575. (B547) treasurybondfutures
Conversionfactor
CTD
P48 Conversion Factor
85
C )T
(1 RDC )T
FT (currency futures contract)=S0
(1 RFC )T
C
Reading50:OptionMarketsandContracts
( option los ) fiduciary call/Protective put (p57-58)
C0 [
X
] P0 S0
(1 Rf )T
580. (B559)tworeasonsforsyntheticpositionsinthesecurities:
priceoption
earnarbitrageprofits.
p60-61 Put-Call Parity Arbitrage
581. (B561Los50b)
U,D,U,D
oneperiodbinomialtree optionvalue
P63
86
582. (B564)hedgeratio .
C1 C1
Delta
S1 S1
583. (B565)
584. (B569)
(B5-70) , (, )
.
Cap/Floorvalue
caps or floors: the value of a cap or floor is the sum of the values of the individual caplets or
floorlets.
A caplet is similar to a call option on interest rates, and a floorlet is equivalent to a put option on
interest rates.
P72
6 (P75 )
587. (B576Los50d)BSM 5 :
Delta:assetprice
Vega:assetpricevolatility
Theta:timetoexpiration
Rho:theriskfreerate.
exerciseprice
87
CalloptionsdeltaforsmallchangesinSisN(d1)fromtheBSMmodel.
AputoptionsdeltaisN(d1)1
C1 C1
Delta
C N (d1 ) S P [ N (d1 ) 1] S
S1 S1
589. (p81 )InterpretingDelta:
Calloptiondeltawillincreasefrom0to1asstockpriceincreases.
Putoptiondeltawillincreasefrom1to0asstockpriceincreases.
590. (p82 Dynamichedging )Dynamichedging:
,akeyconsiderationindeltaneutralhedgingisthatthedeltaneutralpositiononly
holdsforverysmallchangesinthevalueoftheunderlyingstock.
Gammameasurestherateofchangeindeltaastheunderlyingstockpricechanges.
Itislargestwhenacallorputoptionisatthemoneyandclosetoexpiration.
Thatisdeltaisverysensitivetochangesintheunderlyingstockpricewhencallandput
optionsareatthemoneyandclosetoexpiration.
592. (B584Los50g)
cashflowsontheunderlyingassetwilldecreasecalloptionvalueorincreaseputoption
value.
593. (B585Los50h)Historicalvolatilityorimpliedvolatility
BSM
C0 +
X-FT
=P0
(1+R f )T
Reading51:SwapMarketsandContracts
596. (B598Los51a)
Swaprate
Interest rate swap is a series of off-market forward rate agreement. It can also be replicated by
interest rate call and put option (with some measure of difference, the equity and currency swaps
can be equivalent to the call-put combination)
Swap swap rate
1.FRA
2.Options
1
1
1 R4
C
1
1
1
1
1 R 1 R 1 R 1 R
1
2
3
4
p102
p105-107
The market value of a swap is the difference between the value of a floating-rate bond and the
value of a fixed-rate bond.
599. (B5107Los51d)currencyswap
swaprate
currency swap , :
89
, , notional principal .
108
payerswaption
receiverswaption
swaption .
swaption :
1.Lock in fixed rate
2. Interest rate speculation
3. Swap termination
604. (B5115Los57i)thecreditriskishighestinthemiddleoftheswapterm.
At inception of a swap contract and toward the end of the interest rate swap, the credit risk is low
again.
1.without netting 2. With netting/marking to market
Reading52:InterestRateDerivativeInstruments
606. (B5126Los52a) Cap/Floor
1.optioninterestrate
2.optiononfixedincome
(notes p127 payoff )
90
interestratecollar
P129, 130.
:
actual days
)]
360
actual days
)]
360
Reading53:UsingCreditDerivatives:AnOverview
608. (B5134Los53a)CDS
creditdefaultswap(CDS)
CDS CorporateBonds /
CDS long CDS=
Buyer:doubledefaultrisk,replacementrisk,basisrisk
Seller:counterpartyrisk
610. (B5137Los53c) CDStotalreturnswaps,assetswaps creditspreadoptions
CDS:
91
Asset swaps:
611. (B5138Los53d)CDS
Hedgeexposure
Speculate
Arbitrageopportunities
612. (B5139Los53e) CDS Spreadexpected spread payments expected default
losses
An estimate of the probability of survival for each periodic payment (1- the cumulative
probability of default)
Practice
(Notes B5 R48 4,6,7,8,10,11)
(Notes B5 R49 1,3,6,7,8)
(Notes B5 R50 1,2,3,7,8,12,13,14,15,16)
(Notes B5 R51 1,2,4,6,10,11,12,13,14,15)
(Notes B5 R52 3)
(Notes B5 R53 1,3)
( R48 5,6,7,8,9,11,13A,14,15)
( R49 1,11,13,14)
( R50 2,3,4B,6,9,10)
92
( R51 6,7)
( R52 1,3)
( R53 1,2,3,6)
93
SS18PortfolioManagements
Reading54:PortfolioConcepts
614. (B5149)Meanvarianceanalysis
615. (B5149)Meanvarianceanalysis
616. (B5150)2 expectedreturn
2 expectedreturn
Covariance,,
2
617. (B5152) 2
618. (B5153)
619. (B5154)MinimumVarianceportfolio
620. (B5155) MinimumVariancefrontier
MinimumVariancefrontier
figure5
Portfoliodiversification
Portfoliodiversification
P157 figure6-9
CALCML
marketportfolio
riskfreeasset,
626. (B5163) CAL figure111213
Figure111213
rewardtoriskratio
94
CAL
627. (B5167)CAL
slopeIntercept
CAL P168
630. (B5170)CML CAL
631. (B5171)CAPM
CAPM
632. (B5172)SML
SML
slopeIntercept
marketriskpremium
SML Figure15
633. (B5174) Betacoefficient
B=1B>1B<1
P175 Figure16
FinancialMarketEquilibrium
CAPM Equilibriummodel
P176 Standalonerisk
635. (B5176)CML SML
Figure17
Marketmodel
638. (B5181)adjustedBeta
95
betainstability
adjustedBeta?
adjustedBeta closeto1overtime
adjustedBeta
639. (B5183) reasons for and problems related to instability in the minimumvariance
frontier
Reasons
Instabilityproblem
640. (B5184)Multifactormodel
Multifactormodel
(1) macroeconomic factor models,
(2) fundamental factor models
641. (B5185)Macroeconomicfactormodels
Macroeconomicfactormodels
PricedRiskfactors?
FactorSensitivities?
642. (B5187)fundamentalfactormodels
macroeconomicfactormodels fundamentalfactormodels
643. (B5188) Calculate the expected return on a portfolio of two stocks, given the
estimatedmacroeconomicfactormodelforeachstock.
644. (B5190)APT
APT
arbitragepricingmodel
APT
APT multifactormodel
645. (B5192)Activeriskandactivereturn
Activeriskandactivereturn
ActivefactorriskandActivespecificrisk
646. (B5194)InformationRatio
647. (B5196)Factorandtrackingportfolio
648. (B5196) CAPMAPTmodel
CAPMAPT
96
Reading55:Thetheoryofactiveportfoliomanagement
649. (B5214)activeportfoliomanagement
MODEL
ThespecificstepsforTreynorBlockmodel
Step 1: Develop capital market expectations for the passively managed market index portfolio M.
Step2: Identify the limited set of mispriced securities, which are securities with large predicted
alphasdefined as thee analysts forecast return minus the CAPM required return:
Predicted alpha for security i ( i ) forecast return for security i - {RF i [ E ( RM RF )]}
Step3: Determine weightings across the mispriced securities to form the actively managed
portfolio, A. The weight for security i in the actively managed portfolio equals:
i
2 ( i )
wi
2 (j )
j
Step 4: Determine weightings to the actively managed Portfolio A and to the passively managed
market index M to form optimal Portfolio P. Portfolio P is the combination of portfolios A and M
that will have the highest possible Sharpe Ratio (higher than both Portfolio A or M).
Step 5: Allocate funds to Portfolio P and to the risk-free asset that satisfy the investor's risk
aversion. The investor's optimal investment (combination of risk-free asset and risky Portfolio P)
is represented by the tangency point of the investor's indifference curve with the capital
allocation line (point C).
97
TBmodel oprtimalportfolio
Informationratio
2A
A
( A )2 ,
is called the information ratio
2
( A ) ( A )
( A )
TreynorBlackCalculations
1
(1 )
w1
, w2 1 w1
1
2
2 (1 ) 2 ( 2 )
2
3.Portfolio A Alpha:
TBMODEL
651. (B5221)Analystsaccuracyinforecastingalphas
TBMODEL alphas
specificsteps
98
Reading56:TheportfolioManagementprocessandthe
investmentpolicystatement
652. (B5228) portfoliomanagementselements
653. (B5229)explaintheimportanceofportfolioperspective
riskreturntradeoff
PM 2
654. (B5229)PM 3
655. (B5230)IPS
IPS elements
656. (B5230)strategicassetallocation
strategicassetallocation
3approachestoimplementstrategicassetallocation
longerinvestmenttimehorizon
657. (B5231)investmentobjectives,riskobjectives
Somespecificfactorsaffectabilitytoacceptrisk
Figure1willingnessvsabilitytotakerisk
absoluteandrelativeriskobjective
returnobjective
658. (B5233)Investmentconstrains
fivecommonconstraints
constraint riskreturnobjective
briefsummaryofriskreturnobjectiveFigure2
659. (B5235)Investmenttimehorizons
timehorizon
Investmenttimehorizons
660. (B5235) ethicalconductasarequirementformanaginginvestmentportfolio
Practice
Notes: R54
1-6 8 9 11 13 14 16 20-23
Notes: R55
1 2 3 5 7 14 15 17 18 19
Notes: R56 2 6 9
R54 1 5 7 11 13 15 17 18
99
R55 1 2 4-9
R56 1 2 3 4 5-10 11-16 17-22
100