The Analysis & Forecasting of British Cycling Time Trial Records

2nd World Congress of Cycling Science, 2nd and 3rd July 2014, Leeds
BOOK OF ABSTRACTS
J Sci Cycling. Vol. 3(2), 8
Open Access
The analysis & forecasting of British cycling

time trial records
BTJ Dyer , H Hossani and M Shadi
1
Abstract
Background: The sport of cycling time trials in Great Britain has taken place over several distance or time based
formats since 1935. The format of this sport typically involves riders competing individually over several fixed race
distances of 10-100 miles in length or using time constrained formats of 12 and 24 hours in duration. The aim of the
sport is to cover the fixed race distance or duration at the highest possible speed. Each of these events has its own
national record. A new record can be established and ratified at any point of the year when achieved in an event of
the same race length.
Purpose: An evaluation of British cycling time trials over a maximum period of 80 years may provide some insight
into the progression of the sports records and what performances may be possible by athletes in the future.
Methods: The progression of time trial records across six events were plotted and reviewed. This data was obtained
from the sports governing body website and annual handbook. The fixed distances that were investigated were the
10, 25, 50 and 100 mile distances. In addition, the 12 hour and 24 hour fixed duration events were also analysed. To
determine forecasts for each records future progression, the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was
applied to the historical record data. This time series analysis technique has not been applied to sports-based data
to date.
Results: The data from all 6 events typically follows a non-linear progression of performance. Excluding the relatively
recent introduction of the 10 mile distance, the five other datasets all saw a high frequency of new records being
established from 1950-1969 and a reduction in the frequency after this. Conversely, since 1970 these records have
indicated a larger percentage improvement when they have occurred. The SSA technique provided forecasts using
a line of best fit with a minimum of 99% goodness of fit for all six datasets. The SSA forecasts projected that by
2030, the records would stand as 16:51 (10 miles), 41:48 (25 miles), 1:27:40 (50 miles), 3:03:57 (100 miles), 323.76
miles (12 hour) and 550.937 miles (24 hour).
Discussion: The non-linear nature of the records is typical of the characteristics recorded in other endurance sports
over long term time periods. However, to achieve the SSA forecasts, these would then require substantial
improvements in a riders physiological power output and/or reductions in their aerodynamic drag. However, cycling
time trials have historically also been subjected to the influence of sociological factors such as traffic flow, weather
and favorable course design. As a result, such targets may well be assisted by the impact or development of positive
factors outside of the riders control. Further research into the impact of traffic drafting and course topographies may
well provide further evidence to reinforce the projections successfully modeled here.
Conclusion: A review of six British cycling time trial records generally demonstrated a decreasing frequency of
attainment but larger margins of improvement over time. Further improvements in performance were forecasted with
a high percentage of line fit using the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique. These forecasts provide challenging
targets and would require a combination of favorable improvements in physiological power generation, reductions in
total aerodynamic drag and other conditions outside of the riders direct control.
Contact email: brdyer@bournemouth.ac.uk
(BTJ. Dyer)
Bournemouth University, Faculty of Science & Technology. United

Kingdom
2
Bournemouth University, The Business School. United Kingdom
__________________________________________________
Received: 1 May 2014. Accepted: 1 June 2014.
2014 2nd World Congress of Cycling Science, 2nd and 3rd July 2014, Leedst; licensee JSC. This is an Open Access article distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

The Analysis & Forecasting of British Cycling Time Trial Records

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

The Analysis & Forecasting of British Cycling Time Trial Records

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

The Analysis & Forecasting of British Cycling Time Trial Records

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

2nd World Congress of Cycling Science, 2nd and 3rd July 2014, Leeds

J Sci Cycling. Vol. 3(2), 8

The analysis & forecasting of British cycling

Contact email: brdyer@bournemouth.ac.uk

Bournemouth University, Faculty of Science & Technology. United

Bournemouth University, The Business School. United Kingdom

You might also like