Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since

the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean
surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F), with about two-thirds of the increase
occurring since 1980.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more
than 90% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.[3][4][5][6] These
findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations.[7][A]
Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st
century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for
their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest.[8] The ranges
of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas
concentrations.[9][10]
Future warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe.[11] The
effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the
amount and pattern of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[12]
Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with the continuing
retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include a more
frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy
rainfall, ocean acidification and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects
significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the loss
of habitat from inundation.[13][14]
Proposed policy responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction,
adaptation to its effects, and possible future geoengineering. Most countries are parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[15] whose ultimate
objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change.[16] Parties
to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions[17]:10[18][19][20]:9 and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[17]:13[20]:10[21][22] Parties to the
UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[23] and that future global warming
should be limited to below 2.0 C (3.6 F) relative to the pre-industrial level.[23][B] Reports
published in 2011 by the United Nations Environment Programme[24] and the International
Energy Agency[25] suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be
inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 C target.

Contents

1 Observed temperature changes

2 Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

o 2.1 Greenhouse gases

o 2.2 Particulates and soot
o 2.3 Solar activity

3 Feedback

4 Climate models

5 Observed and expected environmental effects

o 5.1 Natural systems
o 5.2 Ecological systems
o 5.3 Large-scale and abrupt impacts

6 Observed and expected effects on social systems

o 6.1 Food security
o 6.2 Habitat inundation

7 Responses to global warming

o 7.1 Mitigation
o 7.2 Adaptation

8 Views on global warming

o 8.1 Global warming controversy
o 8.2 Politics
o 8.3 Public opinion
o 8.4 Other views

9 Etymology

10 See also

11 Notes

12 Citations

13 References

14 Further reading

15 External links

Observed temperature changes

Main article: Instrumental temperature record

The increase in ocean heat content is much larger than any other store of energy in the Earths
heat balance over the two periods 1961 to 2003 and 1993 to 2003, and accounts for more than
90% of the possible increase in heat content of the Earth system during these periods.[26]

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate
proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in
black.

The Earth's average surface temperature rose by 0.740.18 C over the period 19062005. The
rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole
(0.130.03 C per decade, versus 0.070.02 C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very
small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[27]
Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and
0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies
show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before
1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice
Age.[28]
The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide
range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups.[29] Examples
include sea level rise (water expands as it warms),[30] widespread melting of snow and ice,[31]
increased heat content of the oceans,[29] increased humidity,[29] and the earlier timing of spring
events,[32] e.g., the flowering of plants.[33] The probability that these changes could have occurred
by chance is virtually zero.[29]
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National
Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable,
widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding
1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[34][35][36] Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU)
show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest
year, however, "the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the
differences between these three years."[37] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of
+0.53 C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 C) and 1998 (+0.51 C), although the
differences between the three years are not statistically significant..."[38]

NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 19502012, showing the El NioSouthern Oscillation
Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global temperatures are affected by the El
Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the strongest El Nio in the past century occurred during
that year.[39] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends
and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is
consistent with such an episode.[40][41] 2010 was also an El Nio year. On the low swing of the
oscillation, 2011 as an La Nia year was cooler but it was still the 11th warmest year since

records began in 1880. Of the 13 warmest years since 1880, 11 were the years from 2001 to
2011. Over the more recent record, 2011 was the warmest La Nia year in the period from 1950
to 2011, and was close to 1997 which was not at the lowest point of the cycle.[42]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about
twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade).[43] Ocean
temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[44] The northern
hemisphere warms faster than the southern hemisphere because it has more land and because it
has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although
more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not
contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough
to mix between hemispheres.[45]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate
can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate
that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C
(0.9 F) would still occur.[46]

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Main article: Attribution of recent climate change

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's
surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, shows the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentrations from 19582008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations
in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring,
and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.

The climate system can respond to changes in external forcings.[47][48] External forcings can
"push" the climate in the direction of warming or cooling.[49] Examples of external forcings
include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[50]
Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling
trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental
temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[51]

Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, and Carbon dioxide in
Earth's atmosphere
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by
gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by
Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[52]

Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2005, by sector.

Bubble diagram showing the share of global cumulative energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
for major emitters between 1890-2007.[53]
Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 C
(59 F).[54][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 3670% of the
greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 926%; methane (CH4), which causes 4
9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 37%.[55][56][57] Clouds also affect the radiation balance through
cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone,
CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and
148% respectively since 1750.[58] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last
800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[59][60][61][62]
Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20
million years ago.[63] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2

from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes
in land-use, particularly deforestation.[64]
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population
growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[65] CO2 emissions are
continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[66][67]:71 Emissions can be
attributed to different regions, e.g., see the figure opposite. Attribution of emissions due to landuse change is a controversial issue.[68][69]:289
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have
been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural
developments.[70] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few,
emissions are reduced.[71][72] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions
in the 21st century.[73] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have
been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might
change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the
year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[74] This
is an increase of 90250% above the concentration in the year 1750.
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the
destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[75][76] Although there are a few areas of
linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a
slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a
somewhat larger warming effect.[77]

Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 650,000 years ago to near present, using ice core proxy
data and direct measurements

Particulates and soot

Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts
from particulate forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's
surface, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990.[78] The main cause of this dimming is
particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by
increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel
combustion CO2 and aerosols have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net
warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[79]
Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes
them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or
more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to
carbon dioxide.[80]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have
indirect effects on the radiation budget.[81] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead
to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more
efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[82] This effect
also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes
the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[83] Indirect effects
are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on
convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative
forcing.[84]
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited.
Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the
surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of
surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[85] When
deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also
directly heat the surface.[86] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most
pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse
gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[87]

Satellite observations of Total Solar Irradiance from 19792006.

Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative forcing of climate change.[88]
Radiative forcing values are for the year 2005, relative to the pre-industrial era (1750).[88] The
contribution of solar irradiance to radiative forcing is 5% the value of the combined radiative
forcing due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide.[89]

Solar activity
Main articles: Solar variation and Solar wind
Since 1978, output from the Sun has been precisely measured by satellites.[90] These
measurements indicate that the Sun's output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during
the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth. In the
three decades since 1978, the combination of solar and volcanic activity probably had a slight
cooling influence on the climate.[91]
Climate models have been used to examine the role of the sun in recent climate change.[92]
Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only
take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to
simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most
important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings.
Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate change comes from
looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have changed.[93]
Models and observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower
atmosphere (called the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called the

stratosphere).[94][95] Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a
strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If the sun was responsible for observed warming,
warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.[96]

Feedback
Main article: Climate change feedback

Sea ice, shown here in Nunavut, in northern Canada, reflects more sunshine, while open ocean
absorbs more, accelerating melting.
The climate system includes a range of feedbacks which alter the response of the system to
changes in external forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the response of the climate system to an
initial forcing, while negative feedbacks reduce the response of the climate system to an initial
forcing.[97]
There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, including water vapor, changes in icealbedo (snow and ice cover affect how much the Earth's surface absorbs or reflects incoming
sunlight), clouds, and changes in the Earth's carbon cycle (e.g., the release of carbon from soil).
[98]
The main negative feedback is the energy which the Earth's surface radiates into space as
infrared radiation.[99] According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, if temperature doubles, radiated
energy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).[100]
Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to
increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors being equal, a higher
climate sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas
forcing.[101] Uncertainty over the effect of feedbacks is a major reason why different climate
models project different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing scenario. More research is
needed to understand the role of clouds[97] and carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections.[102]
The IPCC projections given in the lede span the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability,
based on expert judgement)[4] for the selected emissions scenarios. However, the IPCC's
projections do not reflect the full range of uncertainty.[103] The lower end of the "likely" range
appears to be better constrained than the upper end of the "likely" range.[103]

Climate models

Main article: Global climate model

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under
the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and
regionally divided economic development.
Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle
21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B).[104] This scenario assumes that
no future policies are adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit: NOAA GFDL.[105]
A climate model is a computerized representation of the five components of the climate system:
Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere.[106] Such models are based on
physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. There can
be components which represent air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric
properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the
transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; chemical and biological
processes; and others.
Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the
actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and
limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to
different greenhouse gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty
in IPCC's 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models[103] with differing
sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations,[107] (2) the use of differing estimates of humanities'
future greenhouse gas emissions,[103] (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that
were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases
from permafrost.[108]
The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases.
Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other
physical processes. One of the mathematical results of these complex equations is a prediction
whether warming or cooling will occur.[109]
Recent research has called special attention to the need to refine models with respect to the effect
of clouds[110] and the carbon cycle.[111][112][113]
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the
observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived
causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from

approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the
warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[50]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or
past climates.[114]
Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the
last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[115] Not all effects of global warming are
accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has
been faster than that predicted.[116] Precipitation increased proportional to atmospheric humidity,
and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict.[117][118]

Observed and expected environmental effects

Main article: Effects of global warming
"Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical
sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the
detected change to a particular cause. "Attribution" of causes of climate change is the process of
establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of
confidence.[119] Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical,
ecological and social systems.[120]

Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s
measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the World
Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Natural systems
Main article: Physical impacts of climate change

Global warming has been detected in a number of natural systems. Some of these changes are
described in the section on observed temperature changes, e.g., sea level rise and widespread
decreases in snow and ice extent.[121] Most of the increase in global average temperature since the
mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to human-induced changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations.[122]
Even with policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow
over time.[123]
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based
estimates of sea level rise for the 21st century[124] range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates,
however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper
bound given for sea level rise. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice
sheets could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet,
and possibly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could contribute 46 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to
sea level rise.[125]
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most
warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the
North Atlantic Ocean.[123] Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the
Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in September by 2037.[126]
It is calculated that, with high statistical confidence, certain weather events, such as the heat
waves in Texas and the 2003 European heat wave, would not have occurred without global
warming. Extremely hot outliers, defined as three standard deviations from climatology records,
now cover about 10% of the land surface and, under present trends, would be the norm by 2050.
These temperatures are expected to exacerbate the hydrological cycle, with more intense
droughts and floods.[127] The effect on hurricane activity is less certain.[128]

Ecological systems
Main article: Climate change and ecosystems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in
plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[121] Future
climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra,
mangroves, and coral reefs.[123] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher
atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[129] Overall, it is expected
that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of
ecosystems.[130]
Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity. This process is known as ocean acidification and has
been called the "equally evil twin" of global climate change.[131] Increased ocean acidity
decreases the amount of carbonate ions, which organisms at the base of the marine food chain,
such as foraminifera, use to make structures they need to survive. The current rate of ocean
acidification[132] is many times faster than at least the past 300 million years, which included four

mass extinctions that involved rising ocean acidity, such as the Permian mass extinction, which
killed 95% of marine species. By the end of the century, acidity changes since the industrial
revolution would match the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred over 5000
years and killed 3550% of benthic foraminifera.[133]

Large-scale and abrupt impacts

Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems.[134] Two
examples are ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.[135]
Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, and might also be
irreversible. An example of abrupt climate change is the rapid release of methane from
permafrost, which would lead to amplified global warming.[136] Scientific understanding of abrupt
climate change is generally poor.[137] However, the probability of abrupt changes appears to be
very low.[138][136] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher
magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained
over longer time periods.[138]

Observed and expected effects on social systems

Further information: Effects of global warming#Social systems and Regional effects of global
warming#Regional impacts
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme-weather
events rather than gradual climate change.[139] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse
effects on small islands,[140] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[141]
and small but discernable effects on human health.[142] Over the 21st century, climate change is
likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding,
reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[143] Most
economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this[clarification needed]
magnitude of warming.[144][145]

Food security
See also: Climate change and agriculture
Under present trends, by 2030, maize production in Southern Africa could decrease by up to 30%
while rice, millet and maize in South Asia could decrease by up to 10%.[146] By 2080, yields in
developing countries could decrease by 10% to 25% on average while India could see a drop of
30% to 40%.[147] By 2100, while the population of three billion is expected to double, rice and
maize yields in the tropics are expected to decrease by 2040% because of higher temperatures
without accounting for the decrease in yields as a result of soil moisture and water supplies
stressed by rising temperatures.[13]

Future warming of around 3 C (by 2100, relative to 19902000) could result in increased crop
yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing
the risk of malnutrition.[140] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for
economic (market-sector) effects.[142] Warming above 3 C could result in crop yields falling in
temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[148]

Habitat inundation
Further information: Effects of climate change on humans#Displacement/migration
See also: Climate refugee
In small islands and megadeltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten
vital infrastructure and human settlements.[149][150] This could lead to issues of statelessness for
populations in countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu[151] and homelessness in countries with
low lying areas such as Bangladesh.

Responses to global warming

Mitigation
Main article: Climate change mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change.[citation needed]
The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or
enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[152] Many countries,
both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies.[67]:192[153]
Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2
emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased renewable energy
commercialisation, energy conservation, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate
substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[154]
In order to limit warming to within the lower range described in the IPCC's "Summary Report
for Policymakers"[155] it will be necessary to adopt policies that will limit greenhouse gas
emissions to one of several significantly different scenarios described in the full report.[156] This
will become more and more difficult with each year of increasing volumes of emissions and even
more drastic measures will be required in later years to stabilize a desired atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases. Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were
the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.[157]

Adaptation
Main article: Adaptation to global warming
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may
be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without

government intervention.[158] Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.[154] The

barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.[154]
A concept related to adaptation is "adaptive capacity," which is the ability of a system (human,
natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to
moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences.
[159]
Unmitigated climate change (i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse
gas emissions) would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and
human systems to adapt.[160]