INTR13/71/72-310

R. James Ferguson 2007

Week 12:

The New International Relations From Crisis Management to Strategic Governance

Topics: 1. Political Realism as the Lessons of Conflict
2. Adaptive Change in Strategic Thought: From Human Security Towards
Humane Governance
3. Diversifying Pragmatism in the 21st Century
4. Bibliography and Further Reading
1. Political Realism as the Lessons of Conflict
Realism and neo-realism (structural realism) has provided some genuine insights
into the international system, and remains an important safeguard against 'wishful
thinking' and 'utopian idealism', both of which can lead to disastrous failures in
international policy, e.g. in the construction of European affairs after World War I,
simplistic interventions on ideological or humanitarian grounds, e.g. the Vietnam War
and the Somalia intervention through 1992-1995. As we shall see, how, realism
provides an important but incomplete vision of the international system, especially
during periods of globalisation and complex interdependence.
As we saw in lecture 2, the realist tradition in international relations is based on the
central experience of conflict in human affairs, and in the centrality of power in
global politics. This tradition was well established in ancient thinkers, both East and
West. In ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides wrote one of the first realist
accounts of the dire necessities of state leadership amid the problems of complex
alliance systems and endemic warfare (concerned with the 5th century Peloponnesian
War). Similar problems emerged in early China (8 th-3rd centuries B.C.), and realist
thought would strongly colour (though not dominate) Chinese thinkers such as Sun
Tzu and Sun Ping, and eventually even influence modern leaders such as Chairman
Mao (Sun 1991). Likewise, a realist tradition would emerge early in Indian thought in
the type of statecraft recommended by Kautilya (for a range of such early systems of
international relations, see Watson 1992). Interestingly enough, Chinese statements
from 770 B.C. onwards tried a combination of statecraft, diplomacy, and defensive
wars to limit the power of aggression, but this could generate a stable multi-state
system (Creel 1970; Walker 1953).
Empire builders, of course, often relied on economic, military and religiouslydefined power to create and hold their extended territorial states, e.g. the
Macedonians, Romans, Chinese, the Muslim Caliphates, Persian, Mongolian, Spanish
and British empires. In different ways, each of these empires relied on military,
economic and political power to maintain themselves, though religious elements were
often also used to launch phases of expansion or maintain ideological dominance. In
the modern period, combinations of military ability, economic power, political
leadership, and nationalist aspiration have been used to sustain powerful modern
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states. Nation-building, historically, often relied on the realist use of force, alongside
the cultural forces of nationalism and the politics of national identity, a trend reiterated in modern German, Italian, and Balkan history.
We can review some of the key layers of the realist position in international relations,
which include:

The effort to look at actual 'real' situation in the world,

including negative aspects.
An emphasis on power, and augmentation of power in
international relations.
An emphasis on the state as the key actor in international
relations.
An emphasis on national interests as the basis for the
motivation of leadership groups.
An emphasis on behaviour and outcomes, not ideas.
A reliance on a negative view of human nature as being
essentially self-interested
An emphasis on elite leadership, plus a mobilised mass
following, though genuine participation is often limited.
Ideas and values are often used to support the regime, and
thus are accorded a real but subordinate role in power
formation and utilisation (see Morgantheau 1985).
An emphasis on strategy and power projection in the
international system.

At the same time there are real dangers in becoming addicted to a narrow realist
position, which can also be used as an ideology justifying the status quo. When
survival or power dominance is at stake, or relative position within economic and
diplomatic hierarchies, then self-interest may be both misunderstood and far from
enlightened (for such psychological factor during periods of crisis, see Farrar 1988;
Morganthau 1985). This means that leaders may over-react, in part due to domestic
political pressures and the need to gain support within domestic audiences within
democracies. The result can distort sober and realistic assessment of international
politics. In such conditions, assessments of power and power balance may also become
distorted. The key point, moreover, is that under conditions of intense conflict,
excessive fear or hope, the realist use of power may not always just based just on
rational assessments - a range of other factors including nationalism,
stereotyping and demonisation may be brought into play, e.g. the range of such misperceptions in the public arena in relation to the cultures of Iraq and Iran, in part
drawing on 'Persian' and 'Parthian' stereotypes, and to a lesser degree in relation to
PRC (see Seymour 2004; Farrar 1998; Ferguson 2005).
In the same way, much of the international relations discipline today, though rightly
concerned with problems of cooperation, strategic conflicts, political realism, and
international competition, has been conditioned by the experiences of World War II
and the subsequent experience of the Cold War period. Many institutions for global
governance, e.g. the UN, UNSC, the IMF, World Bank and related agencies were
born out of this period, and sought to promote peace, trade and one vision of

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development, but conditioned by the experience of war and the leadership of a

core group of victor nations. In spite of some reform, extension and adaptation, e.g.
of international financial institutions and new emphases on environment and
development via UN conferences and agencies, it is not certain that these
overlapping agencies can effectively implement the tasks they have set
themselves, e.g. global financial stability, weak sustainability environmentally, or the
Millennium Development Goals (see lectures 6, 7). Nor is it certain that InterGovernmental Agencies (IGOs) are well suited to the all governance needs of the 21 st
century, including the diffuse transnational challenges of international terrorism, civil
war, refugees and labour flows, economic instability, transboundary environmental
problems or conflict over key resources (see Le Billon 2005; Klare 2002).
In other words, the intense and largely negative experiences of earlier periods have
influenced the judgement of many practitioners in foreign policy, international
governance and international institutions. The experiences and education of thinkers
and actors, of course, influence their judgement and the assumptions used in analysis.
But in some cases this experience can be so intense that it conditions people to carry
forward models from an appropriate setting to new settings where they are no
longer appropriate. A few areas where this has learning under new conditions has
not occurred, or only evolved slowly, can be listed:

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The collapse of the Soviet Union has sometimes been viewed

as signalling the end of Communism and Socialism globally,
and end of ideologically driven conflicts and history
(Fukuyama 1992). As a result, some have turned to look at
China and argue that the same forces will fragment the
People's Republic of China, or at least in the medium lead to
the end of its unique political system and increasing pressure
for democracy (for such expectations, see Terrill 2005; Schell
2004; Segal 1994; Segal and Goodman 1994). The two cases,
however, are not that analogous: not only is Communism in
China affected by what Deng Xiaoping called 'Chinese
Characteristics', but China has much stronger ethnic
cohesion with minorities less dominant in most of their
homelands (92% of China is ethnic Chinese). Furthermore,
'institutional learning' (for this approach, see Haas 2000)
would suggest that the Chinese leadership and many people
in China have learnt from observing what happened in the
Soviet
Union
and
will
intentionally
avoid
such
transformations, allowing economic transition and
greater political openness but no immediate transition
into a democracy with opposition parties (for these issues
see Schell 2004; Nathan 1993a & 1993b; Nathan & Shi
1993). For China itself, only Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan are
likely to exhibit such trends politically, and the PRC has
relative power preponderance within Tibet and Xinjiang
itself. Some economic and cultural decentralisation is
underway, is not likely to force rapid transition (for the
problems of 'monoculturalism' in China, see Dreyer 1999).
Furthermore,
by
allowing
economic
reform
and

sustaining growth, the regime has managed to meet some

of the needs and expectations of key segments of the
population (beginning with the 'peasants' but perhaps now
failing many small farmers), thereby avoiding or delaying
extreme political destabilisation. A similar path has been
unevenly pursued with the cautious economic reforms and
preparing for a future collective leadership in Cuba (see
Robinson 2000), but followed by a harsh clamp down in the
regime through late 2002-2004, suggesting increased
pressure on the Castro government. We cannot directly move
from the Soviet and Eastern Europe experiences to universal
arguments concerning the fate of communism, socialism and
other regimes (Palmer 1997). More generally, PRC has
mobilised elements of culturalism, nationalism, and
economic growth to support its regime domestically,
while using elements of soft and hard power to gradually
assert itself regionally and in global affairs. On this basis, it
will be very difficult to either contain China, or to
directly 'absorb' or 'socialise' it into the existing regime
of international norms and institutions. At the same time,
PRC has moved actively to secure its own network of
permissive politics including the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO), global (Latin America and Africa) and
regional energy accords (Russia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar),
positive trade and diplomacy with ASEAN (ASEAN-Plus-Thee,
EAS), improved middle-level bilateral relations with India and
Australia, and has sought wider engagement with Iran, much
of Africa and Latin America.
Whether this is a quiet
network designed to offset US power remains to be
seen, but this has been suggested by at least one writer: China's forays into Latin America are part of its grand strategy to acquire
"comprehensive national power" to become a "global great power that is
second to none." Aiming to secure access to the continent's vast natural
resources and markets, China is forging deep economic, political and military
ties with most of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. There is more
to China's Latin American activism than just fuel for an economic juggernaut.
China now provides a major source of leverage against the United States for
some Latin American and Caribbean countries. As in many other parts of the
developing world, China is redrawing geopolitical alliances in ways that help
propel China's rise as a global superpower. Beijing's courtship of Latin
American countries to support its plan to subdue Taiwan and enlist them to
join a countervailing coalition against U.S. global power under the rubric of
strengthening economic interdependence and globalization has begun to
attract attention in Washington. (Malik 2006)

It has been argued that PRC's 'grand strategy' includes: China's activities in Latin America are part and parcel of its long-term grand
strategy. The key elements of Beijing's grand strategy can be identified as
follows:

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Focus on "comprehensive national power" essential to achieving the

status of a "global great power that is second to none" by 2049;

Seek energy security and gain access to natural resources, raw materials
and overseas markets to sustain China's economic expansion;

Pursue the "three Ms": military build-up (including military presence

along the vital sea lanes of communication and maritime chokepoints),
multilateralism, and multipolarity so as to counter the containment of
China's regional and global aspirations by the United States and its
friends and allies;

Build a network of Beijing's friends and allies through China's "soft

power" and diplomatic charm offensive, trade and economic
dependencies via closer economic integration (free trade agreements),
and mutual security pacts, intelligence cooperation and arms sales.
(Malik 2006)

Although this seems impressive, we should also note that

Mohan Malik has been along-term critic of China, at times
writing from either an Indian or US perspective. It would also
be possible for the US or other groupings to either
accommodate or restrict each of these PRC moves in
turn, depending on the costs and benefits for each policy by
each 'player', e.g. resistance by Japan to such regional
empowerment. In negative scenarios, this could lead to a
'Cold Peace' in the region that would entail the risk of future
hot-conflicts. In the long term, however, PRC has emerged
as a new pole of power in the international system that is
deeply engaged in trade terms with the U.S. as well as with
new global energy flows. On this basis, it has been suggested
by Yang Wenchang, president of the Chinese People's
Institute of Foreign Affairs, that it is now time for a new
framework of relations between PRC and the US: Sino-US economic ties, for example, are moving ahead in big strides and
have become a powerful factor cementing bilateral relations. The trade
volume between the two countries stood at zero in 1972. It shot up to $14.2
billion in 1992 and hit $270 billion last year. American enterprises have
poured into China, and the United States has become the biggest source of
foreign investment in China. Though trade imbalances have become a big
issue, efforts to consolidate and strengthen bilateral trade have become a
powerful driving force for the development of the Chinese-US relations.
Also, China and the United States have common responsibilities to
safeguard world peace and promote global development in a post-Cold War
world that is far from secure. The world is currently haunted by a string of
security problems, ranging from terrorism, local wars and nuclear
proliferation to energy shortages and worsening environmental conditions.
There are disagreements as well as consensus between China and the
United States on these important issues. The governments of China and the
United States should define new areas for cooperation and come up with
effective ways to settle the discords. (Yang 2007)

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In turn, it seems that US policy has been driven by particular

strategic concerns over relative dominance of power in the
Pacific, and in the economic arena by uncoordinated
economic policies driven in part by differences between the
U.S. executive (president) and Congress, though in recent
years the Bush administration has accepted the concept of
China as a responsible stakeholder in the global system,
a concept that engages China but also allows room for
criticism (Garrison 2007).

Containment and competitive policies can also run

together, creating a period of 'strategic ambiguity' in
which policy can fluctuate across these two lines, leading to
room to move in terms of policy but perhaps heightening
international tensions (for the use of this term in relations to
nuclear policy, see Deutch 2005). Tensions between the US
and PRC, for example, tend to work along a cycle of mutual
interests (trade flows, WTO entry for China, PRC support in
easing the North Korea crisis through 2003-2007), then
diverge as incidents remind the two leaderships of their
different view of world order. The temptation to use the
past strategy of containment, however, exists, because the
strategy was seen (from one point of view) to work against an
even stronger opponent, the USSR. It seems that the view of
China as a 'strategic competitor' may have been reduced
over the last decade (Bei 2001; Quinlan 2002), but have been
resurrected in the last few years as China's diplomatic and
military leverage seem to have increased in the wider AsiaPacific through 2003-2007. Here, simplistic lessons from the
past may have dangerous implications, including a possible
round
of
military
high-tech
re-armament
and
modernisation in the region, as well as regional diplomatic
competition. Rather different lessons seem to have developed
in the prospects for a strengthening India as a regional
nuclear power, with the US. ASEAN and Australia moving to
cautiously accommodate this new reality, though serious
concerns over nuclear proliferation remain even as India
moves to provide greater safety of its nuclear power
programs (for these issues and the Convention on Nuclear
Safety, see Tellis 2002; Xinhua 2005a; Nason 2005). US
policy here through 2000-2007 has gone beyond alliancebuilding and hegemonic coalitions, to a more powerful
concept of engagement with new powers as they emerge
(India, to a lesser degree China)

Other thinkers have taken the lessons from world wars and
global competition in the military arena and simply applied
them to the economic arena. Thus, visions of intensified
competition in trade, investment and fiscal flows have led to

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efforts to increase trade and reduce the negative impact

of trade deficits, debt default, market collapse, liquidity
squeezes, and currency crises. This loose pattern of
governance now partly run through several institutional
arrangements such as GATT, WTO, the IMF, and the Bank of
International Settlements, BIS (see Roberts 1998; Spence
2004). In spite of reform of the IMF, World Bank and BIS
through 1998-2007, and the efforts of the G8 (2002-2007),
UNCTAD and the United Nations International Conference on
Financing for Development (2002) it is not certain that
even with increased resources that these institutions
can ensure national, regional and global financial
stability due to the increase flow and speed of financial
networks in the 21st century (see lecture 6). Although
enhanced peer monitoring has occurred in some groupings
(e.g. within ASEAN), there are still concerns that only a
smaller group of currencies remain strong, with a wider
network of vulnerable economies in many developing
economies.

Countries such as India and China, precisely because of their

growing economic strength, are viewed as sources of future
threat but are themselves threatened by growing needs
that can only be sustained by an international agenda.
In this context, it is true that there now exists greater
competition for strategic resources such as oil, gas (e.g.
in the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea region, South China Sea, as
well as specific pressures on Nigeria, Sudan and Venezuela),
fisheries, and even over control of river waters, as in the case
of South Asia, Syria and Turkey.). Likewise, hot conflicts
over resources might subject victors to penalties that
might make resource extraction much less profitable
(see Klare 2002), but elsewhere resource conflicts over
diamonds, timber and to some degree oil have heightened
internal conflicts and political instability, e.g in Sierra Leone,
Angola, Nigeria (Le Billon 2005) and Sudan. In the long run,
however, there may be a nexus between resource conflict,
poor environmental protection, and reduced human
security.

Likewise, competitive advantages can be gained through

leverage applied through groups such as the WTO for
those countries better suited to work with these institutional
norms, e.g. tensions between Indian and the U.S. and China
and the U.S., and the US and EU over trade liberalisation,
piracy and non-tariff barriers. This has reached a partial
blockages through 2006-2007 (though the US and Brazil have
signalled a desire in future months restart the Doha round):-

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The future of the W.T.O. is also uncertain. Without the trade agreement, the
multilateral organization will lose one of its major reasons for existence. It
will still play a role in deciding trade disputes, but because the organization is
member-driven, it may fall apart if the major economies begin to resist its
trade rulings. It can be expected that a barrage of litigation will hit the E.U.
and U.S. farm sectors following the collapse of the Doha round and Brazil's
success in challenging Washington's cotton subsidies in March 2005. As of
now, Washington and Brussels have excellent track records of following
W.T.O. rulings because they can use the same dispute panels to their
advantage. If the United States and the European Union no longer see an
advantage in following W.T.O. rulings, the organization's existence will be
threatened. (PINR 2006)

These tensions have continued through 2007, with India

being particularly concerned about US farm subsidies: The Doha trade talks, named after Qatar's capital where they were launched
in 2001, aim to add billions of dollars to the world economy and help poorer
countries benefit from new trade flows. Negotiations have been deadlocked
because of wrangling between rich and poor countries over eliminating
barriers to farm trade and, more recently, manufacturing trade.
The WTO draft agreements released Tuesday require the United States to
reduce its trade-distorting farm subsidies to a level between $13 billion and
$16.4 billion. In return, major developing countries such as Brazil, China and
India will have to give greater cuts in industrial tariffs.
The proposal didn't make any major new demands for liberalizing farm
markets in the European Union, which has already offered substantial cuts.
Diplomats from member countries of the world trade body will start
discussing the proposal next week, though negotiators appear to have given
up hopes of reaching a final accord by year-end. (Mahapatra 2007).

This can be viewed as a kind of 'war of norms' or conflict

over institutional rules (Bell 2000) in which affluent
countries deeply engaged in the international system since
the end of World War II have a distinct advantage over poorer
or less involved states. A wider, more diffuse conflict
between the 'North and South' has been waged, first over
issues of fair economic development and debt relief, but now
over issues connected with protecting the environment, and
fair trade, access to agricultural markets, and investment
policies. Likewise, globalisation managed 'from above' by
advanced nations and strong institutions has begun to
be challenged by organised solidarity 'from below' which
demands a say in how the life of local communities is
managed (see Herod et al. 1997; Brecher et al. 2002).
Globalisation, then, has become a highly contested area
in terms of economics, cultural commodities and human
rights in the broader sense (see Stiglitz 2002). Wider crossimpacts and the issues of accountability and responsible for
negative impacts (on the poor, vulnerable local communities
and the environment) have not yet been consistently
allocated in the current pattern of 'global governance'

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(see lectures 5-11). Partial accountability has been

established through the UN and multilateral agreements that
established and monitored the Millennium Goals, with
progress from 2005, as well as by greater coordination of
World Bank and IMF policies for heavily indebted and least
developed countries. However, coordinating aid, trade, debt,
privatization, environmental and health crises still remains
highly problematic for poor countries.
We can see this in the case of the poor, land-locked African
country of Malawi. Loans and aid, of course, are usually
highly conditional, either in terms of debt repayments,
restructuring of government spending, or other, less explicit
demands (see Ellis & Freeman 2004). We can see this in one
very poor country land-locked within southern Africa (east of
Tanzania) Malawi, which has a per capita GDP of US$ (PPP)
645 ($164 unadjusted. DFAT 2006). It has limited resource
base except for agriculture, with export focused on
Tobacco, with small amounts of tea and coffee exports
(DFAT 2006). It is ranked among countries with very low
economic development, ranked 165 in the HDI ranking
(UNDP 2005). As well being one of the poorest countries in
Africa, Malawi has also suffered severe drought in 2002
and 2005, combined with health problems such as
HIV/AIDS, that have posed enormous problems for this
development. It also suffered delays in G8 debt-cancellation
programs and Highly Indebted Poor Countries debt relief
through 2005, due to charges of local corruption, as well
as some ongoing political instability, but the country hopes
this will be soon rectified. Advice from the World Bank to
self-off some of its grain reserves was misused to sell of
all reserves, leading to ongoing food insecurity, with five
million in need of food aid through 2005-2006 (BBC
2006b). Plans from 2005 to privatise its water utilities also
remain controversial.
The country has since made progress in increased grain
production, in creating anti-corruption agenda which also
targets money laundering, and has since had its debt
cancelled, but remains politically and economically
fragile: President Bingu wa Mutharika has spent almost three conflict-ridden years in
power, at the centre of a tense standoff with the opposition that has stalled
the functioning of Malawi's parliament and delayed the approval of bills.
The political crisis began when Mutharika left the UDF to form his own
political organisation, the DPP, shortly after it had sponsored him in the 2004
general elections. The UDF hit back with an impeachment charge, accusing
Mutharika of using US$300,000 of public money to launch the DPP. (IRIN
2007)

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Malawi Map (Courtesy PCL Map Library)

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The realist paradigm has also been 'ported across' into the
area of culture and religion. Here cultures, civilisations,
and religious are viewed as potential causes of conflict and
for intensifying regional wars along fracture lines, e.g. in
former Yugoslavia with its religious divides, the Middle East
and South Asia (see lecture 4; Huntington 1993; Huntington
1996). As we have seen, there are some exaggerations to this
claim, especially since cultures are adaptive, and
civilisations and religions can engage in productive
dialogue and mutual cross-fertilisation (see Kng 1997;
Kng 1991; Ahluwalia & Mayer 1994). Culture is important,
including differences between various strategic cultures, but
once again their interaction cannot be viewed accurately
through the narrow conceptions of game theory or zero-sum
games. Attempts to invoke new 'crusades' or 'jihads' are
hard to sustain in the modern period in terms of
changing national or global outcomes (see lecture 9),
even with the heightening over tensions since through 20012007. However, these tensions have been sustained by
continued patterns of high-profile violence, attendant

10

security clamp-downs (e.g. in the US, UK, France, and to a

lesser extent Australia), and distrust of religious ideology.
The down-side of this may be more marginalisation for
Islamic
communities
and
the
further
collapse
of
multiculturalism as a viable option in countries such as the
UK and Australia. In turn, organisations that might
positively focus Islamic demands and engage stronger
global support remain relatively weak or divided, e.g. the
League of Arab States, LAS, (for its need to reform, see
Anderson 2004) and the Organisation of the Islamic
Conference (OIC) at the institutional level, or the global
society of Muslims, the ummah, at the level of identity
politics (see further lecture 9).
Putting these issues another way, although the lessons of war and competition are
important, they are not the only lessons which can be learned from the events of
the twentieth century. Crisis management 'after the fact' has been one way that
institutions have adapted to deal with conflict, ranging from military containment,
coercive diplomacy, to long-term sanctions. Fortunately, these types of lessons have
been useful, but have been complemented by a wider range of options which are
proactive as well as reactive. New ideas drawn from structural realism, 'the new
institutionalism', from constructivism, from cultural and strategic studies, cosmopolitan
theories of governance (see lecture 11) have begun to suggest the way the
international system is shaped by patterns of engagement among organisations
and creative human activity (see Herod et al. 1997; Henderson 1998; Hudson 1997;
Hasselbladh 2000; Narine 1998). Here, some realist theories have been adapted quite
effectively to incorporate IGOs, INGOs, international civil movements, and an
extension of the notion of power into areas of dialogue, persuasion, and institutional
building.
2. Adaptive Change in Strategic Thought: From Human Security Towards
Humane Governance
We can see two aspects of adaptive change in the serious effort to widen notions of
security from a purely military focus to include a much wider range of threats and
problems which seem more common for many nations in the late 20th century.
Alongside this, there has been an effort to humanise, and to a lesser degree
democratise, globalisation trends and flows.
Comprehensive security involves a more inclusive and wider adaptation of traditional
patterns of strategic thought to the current international climate. There has recently
been considerable interest in redefining security, strategic and defensive doctrines to be
more inclusive than the past consideration of straightforward military concerns. In
large measure, this is due to the recognition that military power, by itself, is unable
to secure the fundamental purposes of defence (Cheeseman 1988). This has been
clearly demonstrated in terms of international terrorism, transnational security
challenges, and fundamental problems in the international order which cannot be
managed by single nations. Therefore, comprehensive security includes issues of
adequate resource security, access to needed trade routes, cooperative relations among
states, and protection of the environment (Dickens 1997). Comprehensive security in

Week 12

11

new forms has been deployed by the EU, NATO, Japan and China. In the case of
China, it has supported a strong move towards multilateral regional politics in East
Asia, a major shift in policy through 1997-2007, in an effort to bolster its own
'comprehensive national strength' (see Kuik 2005; Malik 2006).
Likewise, there has been a renewed emphasis on human security, i.e. of individuals,
families, local communities and indigenous groups, in the face of a wide range of
threats, e.g. natural disasters, environmental collapse, poverty, and civil war (for
case studies, see Lizee 2002). Human security has formed a major part of recent
Canadian and Norwegian foreign policy, as well as forming a central aspect of debates
within the UNDP, the United Nations Development Program (Axworthy 1999;
Axworthy & Vollebaek 1998). Though no single definition of human security has been
accepted, this shift of interpretation has given a renewed emphasis to humanitarian
concerns and the protection of the weak within the international system, and put some
pressure on IGOs such as ASEAN, the OSCE, and the OAS (Organisation of American
States). Likewise, it requires a concern for human rights, community stability, and
proper economic development within a secure environment (see lecture 3). At the same
time, it has become recognised that humanitarian intervention (whether in Somalia,
Bosnia, East Timor or Kosovo) is an extremely complex, expensive and risky
procedure. This is especially the case when it is unauthorised by clearly UNSC
resolutions and clear mobilisation of international law, a factor complicated by nonstate actors (including guerrilla groups, criminal networks, and terrorists
organisations). New research in human security in particular tries to find ways to
reconcile global, regional, national and human levels of security with the
minimum of destructive conflict (see Henk 2005; Bidwai 1999; Magno 1997). In
particular, overly weak or aggressively 'strong' governments can in fact reduce the
security of their citizens, neighbouring populations and even strong states in the
international system, e.g. in Zimbabwe (in spite of some pressure from military leaders
and even within Mugabe's political party, with claims that he will step down after
winning the next elections in 2008) and Myanmar (Gwaridzo 2007).
In part, this broadening of the notion of security has been a direct result of events and
changing international environments in the 1980's and 1990's (Maik 1992c) and a
redefinition of the nature of national power. National power is selectively enhanced
or restricted by regional and international organisations. The trend towards
regionalism and regionalisation is significant, and is in general more likely to reduce
rather than increase hot conflicts, e.g. moderations of conflict through organisations
such as ASEAN, the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum), the OAS (with a mixed track
record), and APEC, and the reduction of conflict through expanding European Union
structures that have engaged in active dialogue with Russia and the Ukraine. This type
of cooperative security need not be based on deep integration (as in the EU and
NATO), but can be based on looser type of regionalism, called 'soft regionalism'
which uses the tools of soft power to influence regional orders without
heightening threat perceptions.
We can assess some of these changes by briefly looking at some of the areas where
environmental, human development and national security concerns have begun
to interact (see Stern 1995; Hassan 1991; Pirages 1991; Westing 1989). We can
illustrate these themes by briefly listing some of the environment and resource issues
which are directly impacting on national security and international stability: -

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12

Pollution with related health and climate impact causing

international tensions, e.g. between Indonesia, Singapore,
Thailand and Malaysia during the repeated great fires that
have caused sustained regional air pollution (1997-2000),
and over coal-based air pollution among China, South Korea
and Japan (Dupont 1998, pp11-14). The estimated cost of the
Indonesian bush-fires to regional countries in terms of health,
tourism and agricultural losses for 1998 is in the order of 6
billion dollars (Dupont 1998, p12). In wider settings,
ongoing deficits in environmental spending and
remediation may set future limits on growth in PRC, India
and Southeast Asia, as well as set agricultural limits for
Australia and parts of Central Asia. At the level of
international climate politics, the Kyoto Protocol and the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are at
best a limited success in spite of coming into force through 2004-2005 (see
lecture 7). Future agreements will need bring on board developing countries
into emission targets, and issues being negotiated through 2006-2007 (planning
towards new commitments through 2012-2017). The US has since floated the
idea of a new, technology-based approach, the Asia-Pacific Clean
Development and Climate Partnership (AP6), to reduce carbon emissions,
trying to set up dialogue among the US, Australia, India, China, South Korea
and Japan, with 2007 debate over forming a new gorup of 15 largest
emitters, or progress towards a Kyoto II. However, it is not clear that this
would merely undermine the Kyoto Protocol, and no clear targets have been
set in the new agreement (Hodge & Uren 2005). It turn energy efficiency
drives and energy diversification, designed to enhance energy security in
growing economies (key policies emerging in PRC, India, EU and ASEAN
through 2004-2007) may provide another access point for this problem. .

Water and soil pollution directly attacking the food

chain, and undermining agriculture, as well as riverine and
marine fisheries, as has occured in parts of China, Vietnam,
the Philippines and India (Dupont 1998, p15). In the broader
context food security has not been confirmed for parts of
Africa through (e.g. Niger, Sudan, Ethiopia), while undernourishment remains a real problem for poor communities in
South Asia, parts of Latin America, and war-torn or crisis
areas. In this context, poverty remains a major debating
point, with diverse views on whether globalisation has
reduced or intensified this problem. Depending on your
definition, 1 or 2 billion people remain in real poverty
globally, with real differences between these projections.
Although the Millennium Development Goals and the G8 have
tried to get some leverage on this problem, poverty seem
entwined with security, political and environmental
problems that make it hard to tackle unless systematic and
sustained effort at different levels is applied to the problem
over the next two decades. The problem and related goals

Week 12

13

have been established as an aim with voluntary targets

through major conferences through 1992-2005: Environment, food security, poverty, and land degradation were brought
together in three major international documents: Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992),
the UN Millennium declaration (UN 2000), and the Plan of implementation of
the World Summit on Sustainable Development (UN 2003). Agenda 21 is
one of the most balanced and cogently argued of all international
documents. As compared with the Stockholm meeting 20 years earlier which
focused on pollution, Agenda 21 gives equal place to development, and
hence to the environment as a productive resource. This meeting also drew
wider attention to the concept of sustainable development, in particular, the
conservation of natural resources for use by future generations. The
Millennium declaration listed nine Millennium Goals, the first of which was
'Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger' and the seventh, 'Ensure
environmental sustainability' (UN 2000 2004). The World Summit on
Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002) took Agenda 21 as its
starting point and produced a Plan of implementation (UNCED 2003).
Sustainability became the key, with emphasis on protecting and managing
the natural resource base of economic and social development and
recognition of the linkages between poverty, the environment and the use of
natural resources. A welcome feature is its recognition that agriculture plays
a crucial role in addressing the needs of a growing global population, and is
inextricably linked to poverty eradication. The targets of halving the numbers
suffering from hunger and poverty are repeated, with a target date of 2015,
adding an objective of halving the numbers without access to safe drinking
water. Again, however, in the outputs of this Summit, the UN forecasts of
population increases in the developing world are taken as background,
given, data. (Young 2005)

Week 12

Basic requirements in the international system are

often not well managed. Soil fertility in intensive settings,
sustainable agriculture, waste management, megacities cities
in the developing world, access to basic infrastructure
remain uncertain for up to one third of the planet (see lecture
1, 7, 9). Fresh water, traditionally a renewable resource, is
now in heavily increased demand for use by urban
populations, for agriculture, and in industrial processes,
leading to decreased availability of clean water globally, and
in Asia-Pacific particularly (Dupont 1998, p59-74). Water
disputes have intensified tensions in the Jordan River basin,
the Nile and Euphrates river systems in the Middle East, and
water issues in South Asia and the Mekong River have to be
carefully managed to avoid such disputes in the future
(Thapliyal 1996; see lecture 1). It has been suggested that
by the 2025, up to two thirds of the world's population
will be under conditions of 'water stress' (Dupont 1998,
p59) due to lack of clean and reliable water supplies.
Likewise, global energy security remains in doubt until
alternative energy sources can seriously augment the use of
gas and oil, especially in modernising and industrialising
economies such as China and India, alongside existing high
needs in the U.S. and Europe.

14

It is not surprising, on this basis, that there is a direct link among poverty, slow
development and a lack of human security. Using a compound indicator such as the
'index of human insecurity' (using a range of economic, environmental, social and
institutional factors) it is possible to map this against a variable reflecting the rounded
quality of life summarised by the Human Development Index (commonly used in UN
institutions). This yields the un-surprising fact that a low level of development
equates generally with a lack of human security, though crises or short-term
conflicts can complicate this picture (see Lonergan et al. 2000).
Even as traditional wars declined through the 1990s, various forms of civil conflict,
humanitarian crises, refugee problems, and the indirect costs of insecurity have
begun to emerge over the last decade as unresolved challenges for the 21 st century.
Thus conflict, especially in developing countries, also heightens malnutrition,
disease vulnerablity, higher death rates among refugees and the internally
displaced, acceleration of HIV patterns, the spread of malaria, tuberculosis and
other infectious diseases (Human Security Centre 2005).
Thus, one snapshot of global affairs suggests that (Human Security Centre 2006):

Even with escalating violence in Iraq and Sudan, that armed conflicts globally
decreased from 66 down to 56, by 15%, between 2002 and the end of 2005.
However, battle-deaths have declined by 40% between 2002 and the end of
2005, but organised violence against civilians has increased by 56% since
1989.
International terrorist incidents increased threefold through 2002-2005,
supporting trends of one-sided violence, though as a whole, negotiated
outcomes have been able to reduce violence in East Timor, Aceh, Nepal,
Angola, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (Human Security Centre 2006)

In summary, global governance trends suggest a serious effort to set the standards to
humanise globalisation, but serious gaps remain in the most basic factors of human
development, human security, and access to basic resource needs.
3. Diversifying Pragmatism in the 21st Century
Another key aspect thought about the global system over the last decade has been the
ability to include (sometimes reluctantly) a wider range of alternative patterns of
thinking and institutional alternatives than before. In large measure, this response
has been due to the fact that international and transnational forces are much stronger
than before, and are beginning to create a truly global pattern of interdependence, as
well as strong flows of wealth, information and contact that run alongside or around
inter-national linkages. Likewise, the powers of the state seem to have been in many
ways eroded, making the state a still important but more disturbed actor in the
global system (Srensen 1996).
Some of these alternative descriptions and patterns of organisation include:

Week 12

The 'Realism Against Idealism debate' vs Responsible

Global Politics (Kng 1997, pp1-90).

15

International Anarchy vs Internationalism and an emerging

International Society of not yet a Global Community (See
Henderson 1998; Iriye 1997).
Cultural differences as a source of conflict (Huntington 1993;
Huntington 1996) vs cultural differences as a resource of
diversity and problem solving.
Extractive Economies vs Sustainable Economies (weak or
strong sustainability).
Traditional Economic and Financial Systems vs the need for
Global Financial Reform, plus added patterns of
community or localised financial activity including
Islamic Banking, Grameen Banking, Micro-loan Schemes, and
small community business initiatives. These schemes
augment rather than replace tradition banking and
investment arrangements.
Normative Globalisation verses 'Planetisation' (positive
future visions of global order), 'balanced globalism' and
'cosmopolitanism', whereby pluralist ideas are beginning to
shape international networks of ideas and expectations (see
lecture 11; Smyth 2001).
The State as the main International Actor vs a range of
multi-level
actors,
e.g.
local
communities,
cities
(megacities, World Cities, sister cities), corporations, INGOs,
IGOs, regional groupings, global level organisations
(Srensen 1996).
Revolutionary change vs Strategic Non-violent Action or
Low-Violent People Power, combined with transnational
mobilisation strategies (see lecture 11).
The need to re-balance and fine tune global institutions
to achieve a better balance of international justice. As
noted by Amartya Sen: The central issue of contention is not globalization itself, nor is it the use of
the market as an institution, but the inequity in the overall balance of
institutional arrangements which produces very unequal sharing of the
benefits of globalization. The question is not just whether the poor, too, gain
something from globalization, but whether they get a fair share and a fair
opportunity. There is an urgent need for reforming institutional arrangements
- in addition to national ones - in order to overcome both the errors of
omission and those of commission that tend to give the poor across the
world such limited opportunities. Globalization deserves a reasoned defense,
but it also needs reform. (Sen 2002)

We can see an effort towards multi-actor governance in the example of carbonemission trading, whereby a global agreement (the Kyoto Protocol and its emission
reduction targets) were used to structure a regional carbon-trading scheme (in the
European Union), and drawing in methods to help government, corporations, and the
public cooperate towards a sustainable environmental goal. This program also engaged
developing countries and the provision of funds towards cleaner and greener
technologies.

Week 12

16

The key mechanism, which engages companies and markets in this process, is through
the creation of an emissions trading market [or carbon trading market]. This was
first taken up by the EU from 2005 as a way of making it easier to meet targets, and
encourage major companies to take an achievable and cost-effective track towards less
emissions. The point here is that some industries find it easer and more efficient for
them to reduce emission below the cap than others - thus they are encouraged to do so
they the trading scheme. In Europe this was the ETS [Emissions Trading Scheme].
The scheme has run through 2005-2007 (with forward trading from 2003), with a
second round running after 2008.
The ETS scheme was based on the following (European Commission 2005)

15 core countries of the EU are committed to reduce combined greenhouse

gas emission by 8% from 1990 levels by 2012, but can trade among themselves
to reach this overall level.
10 new members have reduction targets of 6-8% under the protocol [except for
Malta and Cyprus]
25 member EU states joined the ETS in January 2005.
The use of joint implementation of projects under the clean development
mechanisms of the UNFCCC, whereby European countries can invest in
emission reduction projects in Russia and the developing world.
Companies that produce greenhouse gas emissions [especially in energy
production, manufacturing, steel plants, etc], are given a mandatory level of
emission. If they are below this cap, they can trade with those who are above
the cap, i.e. carbon trading.
Otherwise, they have to pay a penalty above the level of carbon credits that they
would have to buy.

Claimed strengths of the scheme (European Commission 2005):

EU can meet its targets at an annual cost of 2.9-3.7 billion euro annually,
verses 6.8 billion [use of market efficiencies and different timeframes to meet
targets, plus more rapid adoption of new technologies]. This is about 0.1 of EU
GDP. Value of traded emissions to mid 2007 was circa 14.7 billion euro (El Amin
2007).
Allocations for countries (National Allocation Plans) are set in relation to their
Kyoto targets with the plans reviewed and accepted by the European Commission.
Caps for companies are reviewed regularly, with compliance assessed every
year, with fines above the market value of the emission (originally 40 euro per
tonne, but from 2008, 100 euro per tonne).
In first phase 11,500 major installations covered, account for 30% of EU
emissions.
The system allows those companies the reduce emission with the ability to
efficiently reduce emission to do so say and trade the amount below the cap, while
companies where reductions are hard to achieve find it cheaper to buy credits
in the market.
The scheme allows credit from projects in developing countries, via the CDM,
as certified emission reductions (CER) which can be traded against EU emission
allowance, e.g. projects from the Netherlands included electricity production plants

Week 12

17

using local crop residue in India, and wind parks in Northwest China. (European
Commission 2005).
Involved companies may have achieved emissions reductions of up to 7% (El Amin
2007).
The ETS has been successful enough to act as a 'prototype' for a global system
and is one of the few ways to push the global climate process forward, with
Germany pushing for such a global scheme (El Amin 2007).
The NSW and ACT Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme has run since 2003, and in
NSW is a compulsory program for the power production industry, with a National
Emissions Trading Taskforce considering how such schemes might be applied at
the national level, suggesting a cap and trade market based system (Uhlmann 2007;
NSW 2007).
Globally, many corporations and investment groups have now begun to
voluntarily factor in climate and emissions risks, preparing for future
government regulation as well using the idea as part of their image and marketing,
either as offsetting energy usage, or as 'carbon neutral'. For example, Origin
Energy has put 40 million in solar technology, while AMP ANZ, BT Financial and
others have been involve in setting up voluntary report projects for companies to
(Galacaho 2007) However, Australian markets and investors have yet to fully
respond to moves in terms of share values (Galacho 2007).

However, there have also been problems with such schemes:

Estimates, measurement and targets for emissions needs exact, ongoing analysis,
and appropriate levels being set each year (Leone 2007).
It is crucial that targets and caps NOT be set too high, as this means that
targets are too easily met and there may be little impetus to trade or to implement
new technologies, e.g. this may have been the in levels established by the European
Commission, leading to a drop in carbon prices through April-May 2006 of one
third of their value. (El Amin 2007)
Countries may disagree over allocations, e.g. Poland and the Czech republic had
problems entering the scheme, and disagreed with the targets set by the European
Commission (El Amin 2007).
The scheme creates new risks and costs for companies (El Amin 2007).
Some countries may set ambitious targets, e.g. the UK, thereby imposing extra
costs on their companies that may make them less competitive (El Amin 2007).
The system may create an artificial and flawed market that could fluctuate
wildly (El Amin 2007).
An agency such the European Commission would need to be set up to run the
global system (El Amin 2007).

The outcome of these mechanisms or agreements are crucial in pushing forwards

emission agreements for the 2008-2012 period. This is crucial when it is considered
that German Chancellor has called for a cut in global emission of 50% by 2050 from
the 1990 baseline (Leone 2007), the Australian Labor party has called for 60%
reduction by 2050 with trading to beginning for Australia by 2010, while the Howard
government has accepted in principle that trading should begin by 2012 but is reluctant
to establish early targets (Leone 2012; Uhlmann).

Week 12

18

In a sense, then, people, organisations and governments are being offered a much
wider range of tools, resources and organisations for creative, low-violent change
in the current century. These tools and institutions allow us to think about the
international system in diverse ways, engage and participate in change even if on a
modest scale, and to be aware of a much wider ambit of the dynamic transformations
that are occurring. It is crucial that such change be pursued and further developed if a
positive and sustainable global system is to emerge in the following decades. At
present, the global system is far from complete, and seems to be a non-convergent,
contested mix of power and cooperative orientations. This may be due to ongoing
transitions, or because the global network of governance has not been linked together
into a coherent system. A planet without such systematic governance, however,
suggests that conflict, waste and human suffering cannot be systematically
avoided, but are merely the contingent thrust of powerful political agents, historical
trends, and poorly understood natural processes. Such a chaotic mix is not a world in a
human sense, and may defy both prediction and control.
It might be worthwhile to give one last example of this wider, inclusive strategy of
thinking about diversity. Religious differences have sometimes been presented as a
major source of conflict, e.g. in Ireland, the Middle East, and South Asia. There is, of
course, some truth to this, especially when religion is used as an excuse to ignore the
claims of others, and used as a pretext for violence. However, most often it is the
misunderstanding of religion which intensifies conflict and deepens disaster. Hans
Kng has demonstrated this clearly in assessing the supposed role of religion in the
Yugoslavian conflict. One of the problems in modern international relations analysis is
that often religion is not taken seriously enough, due to a 'secularizing
reductivism' which sees only material issues of power as worth noting (Kng 1997,
p120). Kng notes that in the 1980s no serious analysis of ethnic and religious
differences in Yugoslavia was made in foreign affairs offices in Germany or France, nor
in London or Washington (Kng 1997, p122). As a result, several phases of erroneous
policies were made in relation to the ethnic crisis in Yugoslavia (Kng 1997,
pp122-124).
Kng goes on to show that all the Churches in the region also failed to back up the
idea of peace, and only tried to build reconciliation with Muslim groups when events
had already seriously deteriorated (Kng 1997, p126). Put frankly, it was not so much
religion, as a misuse of religion and the reluctance of the international community
to chart a path for low violent reform that failed to avoid the holocaust in the
Balkans. In the current period, it is crucial that blockages in dialogue do not create a
similar set of incorrect signals in relation to Islam at the global level. It seems that such
considerations need to revisited in relation to the Middle East peace process, the fate
of democracy in Lebanon and Pakistan, outcomes for Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran-US
tensions, and the status of Muslim minorities in East and South Asia (see Ahmed
2007). Moreover, misunderstanding these key issues and not grasping available
tools will only tend to deepen such conflicts, reducing the political will to look for
ways to manage problems. To date, fairly simplistic and naive interpretations of
international relations, parading under the respectable titles of 'political realism',
'economic rationalism' or 'humanitarian idealism', have helped create problems as much
as solve them. A new pragmatism, relying on a wide range of viewpoints, tools
and actors, may be needed to complement the insights of a more genuine realism that
grasps the conditions of the 21st century. This process has begun in a range of

Week 12

19

progressive policies but has yet to be entrenched as the 'guidance system' for
global politics in the current era.
4. Bibliography and Further Reading
Resources
The International Labour Organization is 'the UN specialized
agency which seeks the promotion of social justice and
internationally recognized human and labour rights. It was
founded in 1919 and is the only surviving major creation of
the Treaty of Versailles which brought the League of Nations
into being and it became the first specialized agency of the
UN in 1946.' See http://www.ilo.org/
The International Network for Environment and Security has
a range of interesting publications, links and bibliographies
that can be found at http://www.gechs.org/INES/ineshome.shtml
A wide range of Open Access Journals can be found at
www.doaj.org (IR related journals will be found under the Social
Sciences and Sociology subheadings.)
The Carnegie Council has some interesting perspectives on
Global Policy Initiatives, Poverty, and Democratising
Globalisation via http://www.policyinnovations.org/
The Global Policy Forum is a web-based resource with critical
commentary on major international actors, including the
UNSC, NGO's and the US on the basis of increasing
accountability. Located at http://www.globalpolicy.org/
Further Reading
AHMED, Akbar S. Journey into Islam: The Crisis of Globalization,
N.Y., Brookings Institution, 2007

SEN, Amartya " How to judge globalism: global links have

spread knowledge and raised average living standards.
But the present version of globalism needlessly harms
the world's poorest", The American Prospect, 13 no. 1,
January 1, 2002, pA2-7 [Internet Access via Infotrac
Database]
BRECHER, Jeremy et al. Globalization from Below, The
Power of Solidarity, Cambridge, South End Press, 2002
HENK, Dan "Human security: relevance and implications",
Parameters, 35 no. 2, Summer 2005, pp91-106 [Access
via Infotrac Database]
Human Security Centre The Human Security Brief 2006, Liu Institute for Global
Issues,
University
of
British
Columbia.
2006
[http://www.humansecuritybrief.info/]
Week 12

20

KATES, Robert W. et al. "What is Sustainable Development? Goals,

Indicators, Values and Practice", Environment, 47 no. 3,
April 2005, pp8-21 [Access via Infotrac Database]

KLARE, Michael Resource Wars: The New Landscape of

Global Conflict, N.Y., Henry Holt and Company, 2002
KUIK, Cheng-Chwee "Multilateralism in China's ASEAN
policy: its evolution, characteristics, and aspiration",
Contemporary Southeast Asia, 27 no. 1, April 2005,
pp102-123 [Access via Infotrac Database]
LE BILLON, Philippe Fuelling War: Natural Resources and
Armed Conflict, London, IISS, Adelphi Paper 373, 2005
LIZEE, P. " Human Security in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia",
Contemporary Southeast Asia, 24 no. 3, December
2002, pp509-537 [Access via Infotrac Database]
YOUNG, Anthony " Poverty, hunger and population policy: linking
Cairo with Johannesburg", The Geographical Journal, 171
no. 1, March 2005, pp83-95 [Access via Infotrac Database]

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ALAGAPPA, Muthiah (ed.) Political Legitimacy in Southeast Asia, Stanford, Stanford University
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ANDERSON, Benedict The Spectre of Comparison: Politics, Culture and the Nation, London, Verso,
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