Joshi
Joshi
Joshi
Abstract. A semi-static replication method is introduced for pricing discretely sampled path-dependent options. It depends upon
buying and selling options at the reset times of the option but does
not involve trading at intervening times. The method is model independent in that it only depends upon the existence of a pricing
function for vanilla call options which depends purely on current
time, time to expiry, spot and strike. For the special case of a
discrete barrier, an alternative method is developed which involves
trading only at the initial time and the knockout time or expiry of
the option.
1. Introduction
In this paper, we examine the problem of pricing path-dependent
exotic options via the use of a new replication method. Our fundamental assumption is that the only state variable is spot and that it in
combination with the current time determines the price of any specified
call or put option. One advantage of this approach is that it naturally
allows the inclusion of smile information in the pricing.
Thus we assume the existence of a deterministic function,
Price(S, K, t, T ),
which gives the price of a call option with expiry T and strike K,
at time t when spot is S. We shall say that a model which implies
this property is a deterministic-smile model as it implies that smiles
at future times are determined by the value of spot. Several popular
models can be fit into this framework. In particular, the Black-Scholes
model, the Dupire model, [10], Mertons jump-diffusion model, [18],
and the variance gamma model, [15, 16, 17], all have this property.
We remark that stochastic volatility models, eg [12], do not have this
property as the volatility is a second state variable.
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M. S. JOSHI
respectively.
Our replication method is semi-static in that we only rehedge at the
times tj but dynamic in that at those times, we buy and sell portfolios
of options depending on the value of spot and the realized path up to
that point. We emphasize that we regard our trading strategy as a
computational device rather than as a strategy which would actually
be carried out by a trader.
The interesting fact about (1.1) is that whilst the payoff depends
on the value of spot at the times t1 , . . . , tn it does so in a particularly
simple way which is essentially one-dimensional. In particular, if we let
i
(1.2)
1X
St ,
Ai =
i j=1 j
(1.3)
Ai+1 =
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The fundamental difference between our approach and standard numerical PDE methods, is that we only solve for option values at the
times ti without looking at the intervening time steps. Indeed, if the
reader is particularly wedded to PDE approaches, and the model being used has a PDE interpretation then one can view the replicating
options as being a basis for the solutions of the PDE, [14]. It is also
important to realize that this approach does not require the existence
of a PDE describing the price evolution. The similarity here between
PDE methods and replication methods suggests a vague general rule
that if an option can be priced using PDEs in the Black-Scholes world
then it can be priced using replication methods for any deterministic
smile model.
One advantage of our approach is that the initial portfolio for the
replication is independent of the initial value of spot. This means
that the price, delta and gamma can be immediately read off from
the portfolio for any value of spot. As the replicating portfolio does
not change until the first averaging time, we can in fact get value,
delta, gamma and theta for any value of spot and time before the
first averaging time just by evaluating the relevant quantity for the
replicating portfolio.
Another advantage from a more conceptual viewpoint is that we require no strong assumptions on the process of the underlying except
the existence of the pricing function, and so we have proven our replication result simultaneously for all processes with deterministic pricing
functions. This means that we do not need a process; if we wish to
examine the effect of an arbitrarily specified pricing function then we
can do so provided the function is arbitrage-free. Note that this means
that we have a natural way of including smile information. From a
computational point of view this means that the model can be implemented simultaneously for many different models simply by specifying
different pricing functions.
In the special case of a discrete barrier option, a simpler trading
strategy can be employed which involves buying a portfolio of vanilla
options at time zero and selling it when the option knockouts or expires. We develop this approach in Section 7. That a discrete barrier
option can be hedged in this manner for the Black-Scholes model and
Mertons jump-diffusion model has already been observed by Andersen, Andreasen and Eliezer, [1]. However, they do not appear to have
developed the method as a pricing tool and their arguments are model
dependent.
M. S. JOSHI
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We shall also use the term almost to indicate that the pay-off can be
replicated arbitrarily well with a finite portfolio rather than perfectly.
If the underyling satisfies A1-5 then C5 holds; this is the fundamental
result of Black and Scholes, [3]. This still holds under A1-A4, Dupire
[10].
Under assumption B1 then C1 holds for a straddle with no assumptions on the underlying. We also have that under the assumption B1
that digital European options can be almost strong statically replicated, by approximating using a call-spread. Unfortunately, strong
static replication holds for very few options.
If we make the assumptions A1, A3 as well as B1 then more options
can be mezzo statically replicated. For example, an up-and-in put
option struck at K with up-barrier at K can be replicated. Purchase
a call option struck at K. At the first time that the spot reaches K,
go short a forward contract struck at K (which is of zero cost.) The
forward turns the call into a put and the pay-off is replicated. If the
spot never crosses K then the call option and the original both pay
zero at expiry. See [5, 11].
Under B1, B2, B3, A3 it was shown in [6] that a class of barrier
options can be weak statically replicated. For example, a down-andout call can be replicated by holding a call option with the same expiry
and going short a put option with strike below the barrier and the same
expiry in such a way as to guarantee that the resultant portfolio has
zero value on the boundary.
If we assume B1, B2 and B4 then we are in the situation of this
paper. The method we present for hedging discrete barrier options
under these assumptions is then an almost weak static replication. Note
that we can also hedge continuous barrier options arbitrarily well by
approximating with a discrete-barrier option with an arbitrarily large
number of sampling dates.
Our method of replication for a general path-dependent exotic option
makes the same assumptions, but it is almost feeble static in that it
requires trading in options at multiple times.
Note that whilst these methods make no assumptions on the underlying, it is difficult to imagine a situation where B1, B2 and B4 hold
but A2 does not.
M. S. JOSHI
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that interest rates are known and deterministic; in any case it is difficult to imagine circumstances in which future prices are a deterministic
function of spot without deterministic interest rates.
Our approach is to show that the prices of certain digital options
based on the value of spot at multiple times are determined by noarbitrage conditions. By risk-neutral valuation, it then follows that the
risk-neutral joint probability of spot lying in these intervals is determined. Our approach relies purely on using finite portfolios of options
involving trading at a finite number of times. We therefore do not use
the result of Breeden and Litzenberger, [4], that any single time horizon
derivative can be written as an integral of call options.
We construct a self-financing portfolio involving trading at a finite
number of times which approximates the pay-off arbitrarily accurately.
This shows that there is a unique arbitrage-free price for the option
and fixed the probabilities.
Definition 2.1. Given intervals [aj , bj ] and an increasing sequence of
times tj , j = 1, . . . , n, the associated multi-digital options pays 1 at time
tn if and only if the underlying asset price lies in the interval [aj , bj ] at
times tj for all j.
Let Z(T ) denote the value of a zero-coupon bond expiring at time T.
Let P(E) denote the probability of an event in the martingale measure
with Z(T ) as numeraire. We immediately have that the value of a
multi-digital option, D, is equal to
Z(tn )P(Stj [aj , bj ], j),
for all j. Thus the knowing the price of the option is equivalent to
knowing probability of the event
{Stj [aj , bj ], j}.
In other words, since we have assumed that the probability of spot
taking a single value is zero, the finite-dimensional distributions are
determined by the price of the option.
We now proceed to the proof. First, we prove a lemma on the replicability of a compactly supported single-time horizon derivative.
Lemma 2.1. Let the derivative D pay a continuous function f (S) at
time T provided S [a, b] with < a < b < and zero otherwise.
Given any > 0 there then exists a finite portfolio, P, of calls and
digital-calls such that the value of P D is less than for all values of
spot.
M. S. JOSHI
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the first term is less than 1/n and the second term tends to zero as
n .
Corollary 2.2. If an exotic option, O, pays H(St1 , . . . , Stn ) at time tn
then its price is uniquely determined by F and G.
Proof. The value of O is equal to
Z(T )E(H(St1 , . . . , Stn )),
where the expectation is taken with respect to the numeraire Z(T ). The
expectation only involves the probabilities for the finite-dimensional
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M. S. JOSHI
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11
We have assumed the existence of a pricing function so we immediately have that the value of this replicating call option is determined
as a function of Stn1 for each value of An1 . By no-arbitrage the value
of the Asian call option must be equal to the value of this replicating
option and we therefore know its value as a function of Stn1 and An1 .
At time tn2 , we now wish to construct portfolios of options expiring
at time tn1 whose payoffs precisely replicate the value of the Asian
call at time tn1 .
Recall that the value of An1 is equal to
n2
1
An2 +
St .
n1
n 1 n1
This means that the set of points in the (Stn1 , An1 ) plane reachable
from a point (Stn2 , An2 ) is a line, and which line depends purely
upon the value of An2 and not Stn2 . In particular, the line of points
reachable is
n2
1
Stn1 ,
An2 +
St
.
n1
n 1 n1
Thus given a value of An2 , the value of Stn1 determines a point in
the (Stn1 , An1 ) plane and a price for the Asian option at time tn1 .
Call this price fAn2 (Stn1 ). This means that for each value of An2 ,
we can replicate the value of the Asian call at time tn1 by a European
option paying fAn2 (Stn1 ) at time tn1 .
This European option can be approximated arbitrarily well by using
a portfolio of vanilla call and put options. The given pricing function
can then be used to assess the value of this portfolio for any value of
Stn2 , at time tn2 . Thus by valuing the portfolio associated to each
value of An2 for every value of Stn2 , we develop the price of the Asian
call option as a function of Stn2 and An2 at time tn2 .
We can repeat this method to get the value of the call option across
each plane (Stj , Aj ) for j = 1, . . . , n 1.
At time t1 , we have, of course, that A1 = S1 and only the values
along that line are relevant. Thus in setting up the initial replicating
portfolio at time zero, we replicate the values along this line in the
(S1 , A1 ) at time t1 .
The value of this initial replicating portfolio is now the value of the
Asian call option at time zero. Note that the initial value of spot was
not used in the construction so we can get the value of the Asian call
as a function of spot immediately just by revaluing the initial portfolio.
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M. S. JOSHI
This also means that the delta and gamma are equal to the delta and
gamma of the initial portfolio. As the replicating portfolio does not
change up to the first reset time, we can also read off the theta as
the theta of the replicating portfolio. Note that this argument does
not extend to Greeks with respect to the other model parameters as
changing the other parameters will in general affect the composition of
the initial portfolio.
Having used a replicating argument to price the derivative, what is
the actual trading strategy? We set up the initial replicating portfolio
and hold it until the first reset time. At the first reset time, we dissolve
the portfolio by exercising all the options which are in the money,
as all the options are at their expiry. The sum of money received is
by construction precisely the cost of setting up a new portfolio which
depends upon the value of A1 and which replicates out to the second
reset time. We then exercise again and use the money to buy a new
portfolio out to the third reset time and so on. At all stages, the new
portfolio set up will depend on the value of the auxiliary variable, and
will be equal in value to exercised value of the previous portfolio.
The existence of a deterministic pricing function is crucial as any
indeterminacy in the set-up cost of the later replicating portfolios will
destroy our argument.
4. The implementation
The argument in the previous section implicitly assumed a perfect
replication of the value of the Asian call option across all values of spot
and the auxiliary variable. Clearly, if we are to implement the pricing
method in a computer we need to use a discrete approximation. The
approach tested was to use the same square two-dimensional grid at
each time step. The grid was taken to have a uniform size of squares
in log-space.
In the implementation of the method it was sometimes necessary to
assess the value of a replicating portfolio at a point for which the auxiliary value was not on the grid. This was done by linearly interpolating
the prices between the neighbouring auxiliary values.
Prices obtained were compared against quasi-Monte Carlo prices for
Asian call options in Black-Scholes and jump-diffusion models and
found to agree to high levels of accuracy. We give computed prices
for a five-year Asian call option with yearly resets. Spot and strike
were taken to be 100 and interest rates were taken to be zero.
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Price
5.100
5.520
5.535
5.715
5.721
5.839
5.838
5.890
5.887
5.909
5.906
5.914
5.912
5.914
5.913
Delta
0.2815
0.3368
0.3735
0.4111
0.4391
0.4642
0.4815
0.4957
0.5053
0.5127
0.5174
0.5208
0.5229
0.5243
0.5251
Gamma
0.01662
0.01896
0.02041
0.02232
0.02320
0.02462
0.02506
0.02590
0.02606
0.02650
0.02653
0.02673
0.02673
0.02681
0.02680
Price
5.267
5.733
5.771
5.894
5.896
5.916
5.915
5.917
5.917
5.917
5.917
5.917
5.917
5.917
5.917
Delta
0.3570
0.4310
0.4743
0.5026
0.5156
0.5223
0.5249
0.5259
0.5262
0.5263
0.5264
0.5264
0.5264
0.5264
0.5264
Gamma
0.01897
0.02294
0.02428
0.02603
0.02627
0.02672
0.02673
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
0.02680
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M. S. JOSHI
Price
3.101
3.814
4.155
4.651
4.927
5.260
5.429
5.617
5.706
5.798
5.839
5.880
5.897
5.913
5.920
Delta Gamma
0.172 0.006
0.253 0.007
0.297 0.008
0.350 0.010
0.381 0.011
0.422 0.014
0.445 0.016
0.472 0.019
0.486 0.021
0.501 0.023
0.508 0.024
0.516 0.025
0.519 0.025
0.522 0.026
0.524 0.026
Price
5.910
5.910
5.910
5.910
5.910
5.909
5.908
5.910
5.910
5.899
Delta Gamma
0.5263 0.0166
0.5264 0.0184
0.5263 0.0141
0.5262 0.0091
0.5262 0.0060
0.5262 0.0000
0.5265 0.0000
0.5277 0.0000
0.5272 0.0000
0.5270 0.0000
The Gamma here has clearly not converged even after two million
paths.
5. Other options
So far we have concentrated on the study of the discrete Asian call
option, however the method can be used to price other path-dependent
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The crucial property is that the final pay-off should depend only on An
and Stn .
The geometric-average Asian option is easily fit into the framework.
It pays on the geometric average of the spot at the sampling dates
instead of the arithmetic average. We take
! 1j
j
Y
.
(5.2)
Aj =
Sti
i=1
1
j+1
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M. S. JOSHI
6. Additional Simplifications
If our pricing function comes from a model that admits certain homogeneity properties, and the option is also homogeneous then we can
greatly reduce the number of computations necessary. In particular,
suppose our pay-off is that of an Asian call option. The class of payoffs of call options is homogeneous in that we have
(6.1)
(x K)+ = (x K/)+ .
This means to price for all values of K and , we only need to price
for one value of and all values of K. We can adapt this to speed up
the pricing of Asian options for certain pricing functions.
Our assumption on the pricing function is that it is the discounted
expectation of a Markovian process in which for some a, the distribution
of log(St + a) log(Ss + a) for t > s is independent of the value
of Ss . With a = 0, this assumption is satisfied by the Black-Scholes
model with determinsistic time-dependent volatility, Mertons jumpdiffusion model and the Variance Gamma model. For a non-zero, we
can obtained the displaced diffusion model.
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is
17
Given this assumption, at time tj we have that the value of the option
!
!
n
X
1
St + iAi K P (tj , T )
E
n j=i+1 j
+
where {Xj } is a collection of random variables (which will not be independent.) We can therefore rewrite the value of the Asian option
as
!
!
n
1 X
(6.3) E
(St + a)Xi a + iAi K P (tj , T )
n j=i+1 i
+
!
n
X
iAi nK (n i)a
1
Xi +
P (tj , T ).
= (Sti + a)E
n j=i+1
n(Sti + a)
+
(Ai , Si ) =
iAi nK (n i)a
,
n(Sti + a)
we see that the dependence of the expectation upon Ai and Sti is now
one-dimensional.
Here we have adapted a method of Rogers and Shi, [20], developed for
pricing arithmetic continuous average options in a Black-Scholes world
using PDE methods. This has previously been applied to PDE pricing
in a Black-Scholes setting for discrete arithmetic average options by
Benhamou and Duguet, [8]. Note that the Black-Scholes case would
have a = 0 and the variables Xj all being log-normal.
7. Replicating Discrete Barriers
Suppose we wish to price a discrete-barrier knock-out option. The
method we have already presented works, however it requires buying
and selling options at each knock-out date. In this section, we present
a method that requires buying and selling only at the initial time and
at the time of knock-out or expiry. Recall that a discrete barrier option
pays off at some time T, unless the price of the underlying is outside a
specified range on a predetermined finite set of dates, t1 < t2 < <
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M. S. JOSHI
tn < T, in which case the option pays zero (or possibly a fixed rebate
at the time of knockout.)
The technique we present here is related to that in [1] and will produce the same replicating portfolio. The essential difference is that our
approach is algorithmic and relies on the existence of a deterministic
pricing function for options rather on a specific process. A consequence
of this is that our approach can be used for pricing whereas the arguments presented in [1] relied on the price of the knock-out option
already being known by different means.
The essential idea is that we construct a portfolio of plain vanilla
options which has the same value as the option being modelled at payoff time, and has zero value at the points in spot-time where the original
option knocks-out. So the option knocks-out if the spot passes below
the value B at any of the times t1 through tn . Our portfolio should
therefore have zero value on the set
[0, B] {t1 } [0, B] {t2 } [0, B] {tn }.
The idea here is that if the option knocks-out then the replicating
portfolio would be immediately liquidated at zero cost. Unlike our
construction for a general path-dependent exotic, the strategy here
involves selling options before their expiry which is the crucial point
where we use the existence of a deterministic pricing function. In what
follows, we concentrate on the case of a down-and-out option for concreteness. However, the same techniques apply with little change to
pricing a double-barrier option or an up-and-out option.
To construct this portfolio, we induct backwards. First, we choose a
portfolio of vanilla options with expiry T which approximates the final
pay-off as accurately as we desire. Of course, if we were modelling a
knock-out call or put, this would just be the call or put without the
knock-out condition. Call this initial portfolio, P0 . For a portfolio P,
we denote its value at the point (S, t) by P (S, t).
As we know the price of any unexpired vanilla option for any value of
spot and time. We can value P0 along the last barrier [0, B] {tn }. We
can kill the value of P0 at the point (B, tn ) by shorting a digital option
with value equal to P0 (B, tn ), below B and zero above. In order to
retain the property that the portfolio consist solely of vanilla options,
we approximate the digital by a tight put-spread. Call our new portfolio
P10 . This portfolio then has correct final pay-off profile and has zero
value at (B, tn ) but may have non-zero value along [0, B) {tn }. We
partition [0, B) into [0, x1 ], [x1 , x2 ], . . . [xk1 , B). We then approximate
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M. S. JOSHI
Price
8.685
8.686
8.687
8.687
8.687
8.687
Price
8.687
8.689
8.691
8.687
8.693
8.691
8.649
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Monte Carlo but in a Black-Scholes world with the at-the-money implied volatility, the price was 8.42 and using the at-the-barrier implied
volatility was 9.25.
We now present prices with the more extreme parameters,
Diffusive Volatility
Jump Intensity
Jump Mean
Jump Sigma
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.3
Price
17.377
17.389
17.393
17.391
17.391
17.391
Price
17.394
17.400
17.406
17.392
17.397
17.436
17.374
Pricing the same option using Monte Carlo but in a Black-Scholes world
with the at-the-money implied volatility, the price was 13.89 and using
the at-the-barrier implied volatility was 14.47.
References
[1] L. Andersen, J. Andreasen, D. Eliezer, Static Replication of Barrier Options:
Some General Results, preprint 2000
[2] Y.Z. Bergman, Pricing Path Contingent Claims, Research in Finance, 5, 229241
[3] F. Black, M. Scholes, The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal
of Political Economy, 81, 637-654
[4] D. Breeden, R. Litzenberger, Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices, J. Business 51, 621-651.
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