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    Senkaku War Is Likely and Draws in The US - Prefer Predictive Evidence Langerman '13

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    The territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is escalating rapidly and risks triggering military conflict between the two countries. Recent political moves by Japan have intensified China's claims over the islands, which sit in a strategically important location in the East China Sea near undersea oil and gas reserves. Both countries have significantly increased military spending and patrols around the islands in recent months. With nationalist sentiments rising on both sides and no clear diplomatic solution, there is growing concern that China and Japan could end up in an armed conflict that risks drawing the US into the dispute due to its defense agreement with Japan.

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    Senkaku War Is Likely and Draws in The US - Prefer Predictive Evidence Langerman '13

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    The territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is escalating rapidly and risks triggering military conflict between the two countries. Recent political moves by Japan have intensified China's claims over the islands, which sit in a strategically important location in the East China Sea near undersea oil and gas reserves. Both countries have significantly increased military spending and patrols around the islands in recent months. With nationalist sentiments rising on both sides and no clear diplomatic solution, there is growing concern that China and Japan could end up in an armed conflict that risks drawing the US into the dispute due to its defense agreement with Japan.

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    The territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is escalating rapidly and risks triggering military conflict between the two countries. Recent political moves by Japan have intensified China's claims over the islands, which sit in a strategically important location in the East China Sea near undersea oil and gas reserves. Both countries have significantly increased military spending and patrols around the islands in recent months. With nationalist sentiments rising on both sides and no clear diplomatic solution, there is growing concern that China and Japan could end up in an armed conflict that risks drawing the US into the dispute due to its defense agreement with Japan.

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    Senkaku War Is Likely and Draws in The US - Prefer Predictive Evidence Langerman '13

    Uploaded by

    Anonymous cGMk7iWNb
    The territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is escalating rapidly and risks triggering military conflict between the two countries. Recent political moves by Japan have intensified China's claims over the islands, which sit in a strategically important location in the East China Sea near undersea oil and gas reserves. Both countries have significantly increased military spending and patrols around the islands in recent months. With nationalist sentiments rising on both sides and no clear diplomatic solution, there is growing concern that China and Japan could end up in an armed conflict that risks drawing the US into the dispute due to its defense agreement with Japan.

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    Senkaku war is likely and draws in the US prefer

    predictive evidence
    Langerman 13 [Aaron, Foucault connoisseur, AN ESCALATING CRISIS:
    WHY CHINA AND JAPAN MIGHT GO TO WAR, 2/4/13,
    http://tuftsobserver.org/an-escalating-crisis-why-china-and-japan-might-go-towar/]
    The prospect of conflict between China and Japan is rising drastically over a set of
    small uninhabited islands known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and the Diaoyu Islands in China.
    Diplomatic talks have stalled while nationalistic sentiments in both countries
    have grown louder over the seemingly insignificant islands. Both China and Japan are
    ramping up their military spending and the waters surrounding the islands
    are becoming increasingly militarized. With little prospect of a sustainable solution, the

    second and third largest economies in the world may well be sliding towards war. The Senkaku/Diaoyu
    Islands lie in a strategic location in the East China Sea, roughly halfway between Japan and China. The
    continental shelf surrounding the islands is rich in oil and natural gas. Japan currently owns the islands, but
    China disputes that claim, arguing that Japan illegitimately colonized them during its imperial past. In its
    defense, Japan states they discovered the islands in 1884. In addition, the United Nations Convention on
    the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) gives Japan sovereignty over the islands. A series of recent political
    blunders on Japans part, however, redefined the question of sovereignty into a territorial dispute. In 2010,
    when a Chinese fishing trolley trespassed into the waters surrounding the islands, the Japanese Coast
    Guard arrested the captain of the Chinese ship and brought him into custody. In protest, China suspended
    rare earth mineral exports to Japan, which in turn took a severe toll on Japans economy. The crisis
    deepened in September 2011, when Tokyos ultra-nationalist mayor attempted to purchase the islands
    himself to ensure Japanese control. Aware that such a move might be incendiary, the Japanese central
    government clumsily prevented the mayor from buying the islands, announcing its plan to nationalize
    them instead. The plan backfired, inviting the argument that Japan never had legitimate control over the
    islands in the first place. Moreover, China interpreted nationalizing as colonizing and loudly protested the
    move. In the last few months, tensions have escalated, and both countries have become increasingly

    In over a hundred cities across China,


    thousands of protesters took to the streets, vandalizing Japanese restaurants,
    stores, and cars. The anxious Japanese public elected the conservative Shinz
    Abe as their new Prime Minister based upon his hawkish promises to deter
    China. For the first time in more than a decade, Japan increased military
    spending by over 180 billion yen (roughly $2 billion) at the beginning of
    January. A week later, China sent surveillance vessels and patrol planes over
    the islands. Japan responded by scrambling fighter jets and threatening to
    respond with warning shots if China repeats the provocation. This territorial
    dispute is particularly worrisome because, at this point, there is no
    adamant about sovereignty over the islands.

    diplomatic solution that will satisfy China, short of full control over the islands.
    Both countries are dealing with nationalist publics who urge for military answers to
    territorial disputes. The US has reaffirmed its commitment to defend Japan in case
    of Chinese aggression, which raises the possibility that the US might be
    drawn into a conflict if it occurs. Military conflict may appear
    inevitable for these two nations, but only time will tell if they can manage to find an
    alternate solution to appease their opponents aggression.

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