Astrology and The Scientific Method
Astrology and The Scientific Method
Astrology and The Scientific Method
Roger B. Culver
and
Phillip A.
[anna
147
The astrological edifice, however, does not yield up its secrets easily, even to
scientific empiricism. To begin with, astrology is, concerned for the most part
with human beings and their interactions with themselves and with one another.
Such interactions almost always intimately involve abstract human traits such as
love, hatred, ambition, courage, etc. Unfortunately, as any social scientist can
attest, the design and evaluation of quantitative measurements and experiments
in these areas is a supremely difficult, if not impossible, task. Moreover, there
seem to ,be few "aces, straights and cinches" in the astrological world. The
astrological claim is basically that the planetary influences "incline, but do not "
compel" and hence, single experiments on individuals will yield inconclusive
results. The claim seems to be fairly reasonable in light of the well-documented
struggles of the social scientists over very similar kinds of questions. If the
astrological principles are correct, however, one should be able to see overall
trends, patterns, and tendencies in large data samples. It is in the search for and
analysis of such patterns that the question of the validity of astrology enters the
murky world of statistical interpretation. Here the methods and techniques offer
the investigator a marvelous spectrum of opportunity, ranging from a chance to
solve empirical problems that are otherwise insoluable to a virtually limitless
capacity for interpretive mischief and disaster. In dealing with the astrological '
will-o'-the wisp, we could hardly expect less!
148
.....
.;>.
\0
of an Astrological Sign
90'
120'
ISO
Angle of 'trine
Angle of Opposition
g.
S"
S' - lZ"
S' -
4" -
>9'
S' - 12'
0"
l'
Ua.certai"tv
16"
60'
Conjunctio~
30
Angle of
Angular.~idth
'2!!!.!. .
TABLE 1.
arc not aware of any recorded debate, scientific or otherwise, concerning this
question from astrology's formative years. There is, however, an excellent
modem case history which permits us to view the empirical processes of the
astrologer.
In 1970, astrologer Steven Schmidt wrote a book entitled "Astrology 14,"
which was balleyhooed as "the most exciting discovery in astrology in two
thousand years!" Basically, Schmidt, a sidereal astrologer, claimed that since the
sun passes through the astronomical constellations of Cetus and Ophiuchus,
these star groups should be a part of the system of astrological zodiacal signs. In
formulating the astrological character traits for each of his fourteen zodiacal
signs, Schmidt described his method thusly:
" ... I collected people - people born under all fourteen signs - and
examined their character traits. I used persons with whom I am
personally acquainted and also famous people whose personalities are
well-known" (statesmen, movie stars, scientists, artists, etc.), I looked
for traits held in common by persons born under the same sun sign.
Always, of course, I kept in mind the wide diversity made possible by
differences in heredity and environment."(6)
At no time did Schmidt put forth any quantitative data or in any way present
any empirical justification for' his value of 25 .7 for the angular length of an
astrological sign (a uniform fourteen-part division). Nevertheless, his hope was
that the astrologers would "have the courage and foresight to cast off outmoded
'traditional' data." At this point; the traditional, astrologers could brush aside
Schmidt's contentions with a single, simple reference to some classical
experiment or series of experiments in astrology which yield the Table 1 value of
30 '1 for the angular length of a single astrological sign. The sad fact of the
matter is that no such reference exists, ', and without it, the , astrologers'
traditional 30 value rests on ground no firmer than Schmidt's value of 25.7.
In fact, nowhere in the astrological literature could we fwd a description of
any empirical procedures by which any of the constants listed in Table 1 could
be or have been determined. Even.the "uncertainties" listed for these constants
are not 'rigorously defined in terms of standard deviations or some other
mathematically meaningful concept. Rather , they take on values, especially in
the case of the aspects, which will insure that a horoscope will have an adequate
number of interpretable features. This, of course, stands in glaring contrast to
the methods by which scientists deal with their fundamental constants. JenkinS
and White(7), for example, discuss no less than ten different experimental
techniques for measuring the speed of light!
Conspicuous by its absence fromTable 1 is the value of the angular extent of
a single astrological house. As we have indicated in Part I of this discussion, the
astrological house boundaries can be set along the ecliptic by a wide variety of
methods. Unfortunately, each method results in the house boundaries beinS
located at different sets of points along the ecliptic. The effect on a horoscope is
hardly trivial. It is possible, for example, for a spread of 10 or more to occur in
Included in this list of "well-known" personalities are Presidents Rutherford Hayes,
Chester Arthur, and Millard Fillmore.
150
the placing of a house boundary along the ecliptic: Should the sun; moon, or any
of the planets happen to be located in this zone of uncertainty, there could be
an especially significant effect on a ,person's horoscope. The impact, on ' one's
life, -for example, of an "unfavorable" planet located in that person's second
house , (material 'possessions) astrologically will be vastly different ' from the
impact of that same object displaced by one house.into'HousesI (personality)
Or 3 (family ties). One would think that with such discrepancies the astrological
community would place the solution 'of the problem of house diversion:at the
top of their experimental and observational priorities.' Instead, the astrologer
tells us
"when he [the astrologer] .flnds a change in the .house position of a
, planet, he .can ... decide for himself [italics Mr. Hone's] which gives
,the better result, in light of his own knowledge of the -person,whose '
chart he is doing."(8)
.
In,short, there seems to be no desire whatsoever on the part of ,the astrologer
to make modern .experimental determinations of the values , of. any of the
astrological quantities listed in Table 1.
of
151
that Smollin is referring to the year 1774. Nor is there any doubt that Smollin is
also referring to de Cheseaux's Comet which, with its set of six 19-million-mUe
tails, had to be one of the flnest cometary spectacles in recorded history. The
one small problem with Smollin's analysis is that de Cheseaux's Comet appeared
in early March of 1744 not 1774. We expect that Mr. Smollin could quickly
come up with an equally impressive list of "historical effects" for 1744 from de
Cheseaux's Comet.
A similar treatment has been accorded the alleged astrological influences of
the planets Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, all of which, of course, have been
discovered in historical times. Neptune and Pluto with sidereal periods
respectively of 165 and 248 years, for example, have yet to complete an entire
circuit of the zodiac since their discoveries in 1846 and 1930. This has not
deterred astrologers, however, from assigning a full complement of astrological
properties to these two planets(ll).
While a good deal of the astrological "experimentation" is performed in a
manner not unlike the above examples, there have been a number of attempts to
test astrological principles in a truly scientific manner. As noted in the
introduction, these tests must necessarily be statistical in nature. Early attempts
in this regard have suffered from statistical samples that were simply too small
for the results to be significant. A typical example is the work of the
psychoanalyst Carl lung. lung examined the horoscopes of 180 married couples
and found that the aspect traditionally most connected astrologically with
marriage - a conjunction of the man's sun and the woman's moon - was slightly
more favored over other aspects, but not enough to be statistically significant in
light of the sample size employed(12). Interestingly, despite the fact that lung
himself recognized his results to be statistically inconclusive, the data have been
widely quoted in the astrological literature in support of astrological claims(13).
In any meaningful empirical analysis of astrology, then, care must be taken to
avoid these kinds of statistical pitfalls.
If any universal theme or "law" can be said to run through the astrological
literature, the dominance of the sun-sign in an individual's horoscope is it.
Continually, individuals are sorted into sun sign bins and astrological
commentary is then made on that basis. Astrologer M.E. Hone sums up the
effect of the sun sign,
"This (the sun sign) is the most powerful of all the horoscopic factors.
When considering a personal chart, the judgement of the type of person
will depend largely on his solar (italics Mr. Hone's) characteristics."( 14)
Astrologer Linda Goodman further echoes this sentiment.
"The Sun is the most powerful of all the stellar bodies. It colors the
personality so strongly that an amazingly accurate picture can be given
of the individual who was born when it was exercising its power
through the known and predictable influence of a certain astrological
sign."(lS)
The sun sign, for example, is said to have great influence on an individual's
occupation. Hall(16), tells us that the astrological sun-sign occupations for
Aquarius include "such trades and professions ... as humanitarians, explorers,
aviators, actors, astrologers, electricians, singers, psychologists, and radio
152
153
TABLE 2.
ChrlYd ,f
TC:.lclh.~.dt 1
b
Enl!Df'
506
873
490
460
1069
686
514
874
535
506
1079
762
538
840
520
484
1064
721
5~2
843
529
527
1081
TAU
(Apr. 21/llay 21)
679
56~
821
560
498
1098
Ct.'!
(llay 22/Ju 22)
715
494
860
480
524
1175
CNC
(Jun. 23/July 23)
699
510
87~
555
536
1126
LEO
(July 24/Au8' 23)
682
524
810
519
316
1108
N4
5~1
805
540
547
1082
LIB
(S.p'. 24/0. 23)
731
568
8~8
486
320
1090
seo
(Oct. 24/Nov. 22)
751
517
869
538
322
1026
seR
(Nov. 23/Dec. 22)
714
573
900
527
511
1093
TOTALS
8524
6412
10,228
6279
6151
13,091
Anrt
Officen
Bank.en
CAP
680
AQR
(J 20/rob. 19)
PSC
(F.b. 20/llar. 21)
Sun Slan
ARI
VIR
154
TABLE 2.
le.llyerad,e,f
511
498
480
481
486
534
517
540
537
532
479
497
6092
I.t.4"lot d
_t..
MedicaId
Poets
640
851
340
6S3
620
627
792
342
607
591
672
815
338
641
584
580
799
321
632
596
619
754
360
607
552
611
807
309
657
607
655
775
365
710
610
647
767
347
678
583 .
651
749
328
688
577
606
780
322
686
595
621
758
343
639
574
653
837
308
657
566
7582
9484
4023
7855
7055
pol1tic1anslr.
! -..
~I
'tulhr 0 f Cr"'uaUI, V. I. KtUury Aud..,-J,,,,",
t..,.,.. ,-",,0 b,
Psych01ol\1SU1
Musicians i
Doctors ,e,
4'~ ..... b.U Eftctc1o,u". ite M,. 1ft,. Ib.. MlcKlU ru6U." ~DT. 1M.,
eo.p.a."
Q'UIO,
tort.
'"b "'"
'
"'."h
e-,...,. ...,
155
o.
C.
Table 3.
2
The X probability p tha t the sun s ign distributicn for a
occupation is a random result.
OCCUPATION
Actors
Advertizing Execut iv es
Antique Deal ers
Architects
Army officers
Artists
Astronomers
Aut hors
Bankers
Baseball Players
lIua1ness men
Celebrities
Chemists
Clergy
College Athletes
College Teachers
Community Leaders
Composers
Congressmen
Elementary School Teachers
Engi neers
Film Makers (Produc ers)
Forest Rangers
Government Officials
Jazz Musicians
Journalists
Labor Leaders
SAMPLE SIZE
1552
7118
600
5036
8524
2982
900
2931
6432
2696
10228
8024
5047
1515
8000
6279
4006
6151
4651
4698
5138
4450
5056
13091
2842
600
600
5013
1115
2088
432
156
2
X PROBABILITY
(p)
0.50
0.20
0.07
0.15
0.39
0.05
0.34
0.11
0.25
<.001
0.45
<.001
0.23
0.06
0.05
0.22
0.16
0.38
<.001
<.001
<.001
<.001
0.15
0.29
0.69
0.79
0.41
0.14
0.16
0.33
0.008
giv,~
REFU'::NCE
16
16
This iJper
16
This i Jper
16
This : J per
16
This i .1per
16
This i.1per
16
16
16
17
This hper
16
This iJ per
16
16
16
17
16
This tap er
16
This Taper
This ra per
16
16
16
16
OCCUPAtION
Lawyers
Ubrarians
Medical Doctors
IUcrobiologists
Musicians
Naval Captains
Navy FUers
Nurses
Opera Singers
Philosophers
Poets
Political Scientists
POliticians
hychiatriats
Paychologiats
SCientists
Singers
Space Scientists
Surgeons
'truck Drivers
University Scholars
Veterinarians
WO~en of Achievement
loung Men of Achievement
loung Wo~en of Achievement
SAMPLE SIZE
6092
5477
7310
5111
7582
5000
1800
9484
2616
7550
2100
5210
12.00
600
600
4023
5146
7855
5022
6011
7055
10123
lOSS
672
2000
600
13183
1800
4004
5738
7694
157
X2. PROBABILITY
(p)
0.34
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.29
0.08
0.13
0.19
<.001
0.47
0.64
0.005
0.22
0.14
0.66
0.38
0.05
0.10
0.13
0.11
0.77
0.40
0.04
0.38
0.05
0.07
0.003
0.22
0.57
0.01
0.002
REFERENCE
This Paper
16
17
16
16
16
This Paper
This Paper
16
17
17
This
This
This
This
17
Paper
Paper
Paper
Paper
16
This Paper
16
./,16
Thill Paper
16
16
This Paper
16
This Paper
16
This Paper
16
16
16
Table 4.
Heart Attack
Victims
LiCespan s ~
80 years
Sign
Cap
112
140
105
290
Aqr
105
132
110
320
Pac
102
100
111
315
lor!
118
105
113
295
Tau
101
126
102
317
Gem
100
117
120
288
Cne
120
125
117
270
Leo
116
127
133
284
Vir
108
133
100
3.01
Lib
127
121
107
303
see
119
142
141
280
Sgr
105
152
130
277
TarAL
1333
1.520
1389
3540
0.73
0.06
0.14
0.51
158
St roke~,
is an indicator of certain types of health problems, strong and weak points of the
body, and even longevity itself. Hall(20) and Hone(21), for example, list illnesses
of the heart as being a typical health problem for individuals born under the sign
of Leo. For individuals born under Aries, "Health difficulties are those
associated with the head, brain, face, eyes, upper jaw , cerebrum , and carotid
art~ries"(22). In checking several thousand obituaries gleaned from a wide
vanety of newspapers and news magazines over a several year period, a total of
1333 listed strokes as the cause of death, 1520 as heart attack victims, and 1389
as cancer victims. A breakdown of these data by sun sign is presented in Table 4.
~nce more, contrary to the widespread claims in the astrological literature, no
SIgnificant departure from random processes could be found for these three
types of illness. This conclusion is further strengthened by the fact that the
cancer victims who die of a wide variety of types of cancer attacking different
harts of the body show no significant differences in their distribution than the
1eart attack and stroke victims whose health problems centered on more
ocalized areas of the body.
In this same survey, a total of 3540 individuals who lived to be 80 years or
more were sorted according to sun sign. These results are also listed in Table 4
an~ again no correlation with the sun signs of the individual is found to exist.
This result, by the way, is in substantial agreement with Addey's(23) survey of
~70 no?agenarians. Such statistics are in basic agreement with the overall results
Or vanous other diseases and medical disorders which are most elegantly
s~mmarized by Per Dalen in "Season of Birth"(24). A partial listing of the
diseases, medical phenomena, and personality traits that are found to have no
COrrelation with birth date is presented in Table S. These data include our own
results for various disorders in which our sample sizes were at least 300 (25
"'
.
eXpected entries per sun sign).
Astrologers have also proclaimed that in the choice of one's marriage partner
t~ere exist certain "compatible" and "incompatible" combinations of sun
slgns(2S). One of the better examples of this sort appeared in the February 8,
1~77, issue of the "National Enquirer" in an article entitled "Expert Carroll
Righter Tells How Your Astrological Signs Tell if You've Picked the Right
Mate." In that article Mr. Righter even presents us with a 12 x 12 matrix of male
and female sun signs in which the various combinations are rated from 1
("chances for a happy marriage are tops") to 8 ("chances for a happy marriage
are very bad"). Unfortunately for.Mr. Righter, two Dutch scientists, Kop and
lIeuts, constructed a similar matrix in 1974 based on a random sample of 3,392
married couples drawn from the registry office of Amsterdam. They could find
llo overall date of birth significance to either marriages or divorces(26).
The nature of much of the above data also allows us to investigate not only
the sun signs but other possible correlations with other celestial objects,
Particularly those involving the planets, Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter.
-Wl:ere sample sizes permitted, attempts were made to uncover correlations of
thIS type. Taking into account the amount of time that a given planet would
s~end in a given astrological sign over the time period considered. no statistically
SIgnificant correlations to the sun and to each other could be determined for any
159
Table S.
Intelligence Quotient
AlcohoUsm*
Introversion
Appendicit1a*
Leukuemia
Arthritis
Longevity 22,*
Asthma*
Lung Cancer
Cerebral Palsy
Malaria*
Chicken Pox*
Multiple Births
COlIIIIlon Cold*
Multiple Sclerosis
Mumps*
Diabetes
Muscular Dystrophy*
DOwn's Syndrome
Natural Abortions
Emotional Maladjustments
PoUo
Extraversion
Premature Births
Eye Defects
Rheumatism*
Yeeble-Mindedness
Rubella
Heart Attacks.
Sociability
Hodgkin's Disease
'Stillbirths
Infant Mortality
Strokes
Inferiority Feelings
TonsillUs
Influenza
Uterine Bleeding
*This paper.
160
..
these four objects. Excluded from die analysis were the planets Saturn,
ranus, Neptune, and Pluto, owing to their large sidereal periods, and the Moon,
~hose astrological position at the time of birth requires a knowledge of not only
e date and year of birth but the exact time of day as well.
B These results are corroborated by similar surveys done by Barth and
ennett(27) on the supposed influence of the planet Mars in military careers,
and by Michel and Francoise Gauquelin(2B) who analyzed 25,000 individuals
and their occupations according to the location by astrological sign of the sun,
~oon, and planets at the time of birth. The Gauquelins' work is of pivotal
l1lterest in the astronomy.astrology controversy because their data represent the
Only large sample size to date for which the exact time of day, as well as the date
and year of birth, has been recorded. These data have allowed the Gauquelins' to
ll1Ves~igate in detail some of the astrological claims which rest on knowledge of
the time of day of an individual's birth. For example, the presence of Jupiter at
an individual's midheaven at birth is a supposed indicator of a brilliant and
sUCcessful future of money and fame. Out of ten thousand successful individuals
~xamined in one aspect of Gauquelin 's survey, the percentage of individuals who
ad Jupiter at midheaven at birth was not different from what would be
expected for a random distribution.
In fact, in all of the Gauquelin analyses, the only statistically meaningful
Correlations which could be developed were of a diurnal nature. The Gauquelins
claim that their data lead to statistically significant correlations between certain
OCCUpations and a certain planet's local hour angle at the time of birth. These
reSUlts are summarized in Table 6 and have sparked not only a complete
the?retical explanation by GauqueJin himself, but also an acrid debate on the
tOPIC, the major points of which can be found detailed in a series of articles by
the Gauquelins and L.E. Jerome in Leonardo, Volumes 7-9. Basically, the
GauqueIins' analysis has been criticised on a number of counts, the bulk of
Which center on the counting scheme and the computation of the number of
degrees of freedom in the data. The claim is made that if these factors are
properly introduced, the Gauquelins' odds against a random distribution drop
Considerablyfrom the value of roughly 10-6 quoted in their early work.
In particular, one analysis of the Gauquelins' so-called "Mars effect"* by
Abell, et a/.(29) has failed to confirm the effect. The authors, however, are quick
to point out that while their findings can place an upper limit on the total
str~ngth of the effect, they cannot in any way be interpreted by disproving its
eXiStence.
. The Gauquelins' data are, however, generally regarded as being sufficiently
Itnpressive to warrant additional testing . Unfortunately, the debate over the
Gauquelins has, to date, centered on the interpretation of one set of data (the
Gauquelins) collected by one investigative team (also the Cauquelins). It took
the better part of forty years for the quantum theory to become widely
aCcepted in the scientific world and even then it was accepted only after a wide
"J\n aspect of the Gauquelins' data in which a statisticaUy significant number of sports
hba~Pions are found to be born when the planet Mars is situated between the eastern
OIlZon and the celestial meridian.
161
Table 6.
Rise and/or
Meridian of
High Birth
Moon
Average Birth
Frequency
Low Birth
Fuquency
Ministers
Politiciana
Writers
Scientists
Doctors
Paintera
Musicians
Journalists
Athletes
Soldiers
Mara
Scientists
Doctors
Athletes
Soldiers
Executives
Cabinet
Ministers
Actors
Journslists
Writers
Painters
Musicians
Jupiter
Team Athletes
Soldiers
Ministers
Actors
Journalists
Playwrights
Painters
Musicians
Writers
Solo Athletes
Scientists
Doctors
Saturn
Scientists
Doctors
Soldiera
Ministers
Acton
Painters
Journalists
Writers
Frequency
162
163
ASTROLOGICAL PREDICTION
An important test for any scientific description of a phenomenon in nature
lies in its ability to predict future events or new experimental results. The
scientific method, in fact, demands that such a description is constantly probed,
prodded, and poked with a predictive stick if any scientific progress is to ensue.
The ultimate success of a given theory is then judged directly in accordance with
its ability to render successful predictions. So, the scientific method provides the
astrologers with yet another opportunity to demonstrate the validity of their
claims. In particular, how do the astrologers themselves fare when given a free
hand to cast entire horoscopes, interpret them, and make predictions from
them?
Historically, the astrologers are in deep trouble right from the start. The
planets Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto have all been discovered within the last two
centuries. If the horoscope is indeed the delicately interactive entity that
astrologers would have us believe, then how, for literally thousands of years,
could the influences of three tenths of the objects involved in the interpretation
of a horoscope have escaped the notice of the same astrologer-astronomers who
did notice precession and the saros cycle? Nowhere in the astrological or
astronomical literature prior to the discovery of Uranus in 1781 is there any
indication of any awareness of the existence of any of these three planets. In
fact, quite to the contrary, the astrologers have historically been quite happy
with seven "planets"* as a natural manifestation of the medieval "Law of
*The sun and moon arc regarded astrologically as planets owing to their motions along the
zod iac.
164
~oreoever, astrologers prior to 1781 were already putting out what has long
SInce become a familiar old astrological refrain, i.e., "astrology works ."
T This basic predictive failure has presented astrologers with what West and
Oonder(35) admittedly refer to as a " grand and intriguing problem." It has
p,rOmpted a wide variety of explanations and excuses. One suggestion is that the
new" planets' astrological impact is felt not by individuals, but by entire
generations (accounting for certain "gaps") owing to their large sidereal periods.
Other astrologers have claimed that the new planets affect only a relatively few
Outstanding individuals, while still others have gone so far as to suggest that the
astrological influences of these planets did not commence until the first instant
of their discovery!
. Interestingly, after being embarassed three times in two centuries by the
(h~covery of a new planet, contemporary astrologers are now postulating the
eXistence of two new planets so that there will be a single ruling planet for each
astrological house in line with a centuries-old Hindu view. At the moment
Mercury and Venus must do double duty. Astrologers' suggestions for the "new"
planets would border on the comical were it not for the fact that these
speculations are avidly absorbed by millions of readers. In one suggestion(36),
the hoary old ghost of the intramercurial planet Vulcan is resurrected.
Astrologer Jeanne Dixon Speculates on a second possibility(37).
"1 see sister planet - previously hidden by the sun - being discovered
by the end of this century. Scientists will land instruments on the
planet Jupiter to gain a bird's-eye view of this as yet unknown planet."
(Flying saucer buffs will instantly recognize this as the mysterious "far side of
the sun" planet Clarion).
More reasonable is Ebertine's claim for the existence of t'the planet
"T ransPluto" for which an ephemeris can be obtained from the American
Federation of Astrologers. Currently, Trans-Pluto (astrological symbol = is
alleged to be at 16 of Leo (>. '" 156'). The predicted existence of Trans-Pluto is
based on "unaccounted for" influences in horoscopes. The discovery of
Trans.Pluto at or near Ebertine's predicted position would constitute a landmark
triumph for astrology, just as the calculations by Leverrier and Adams over a
century ago provides science not only with a new planet, Neptune, but also gave
Newtonian mechanics its finest hour. Ebertine's ephemeris indicates that the
alleged planet should lie outside the band of the Milky Way and well within the
lowell Observatory's 1929.1945 search zones(38). Unfortunately for Ebertine,
no such object was turned up by the Lowell Survey, and we may therefore
Conclude that if the planet exists it can be no brighter than the survey's 17th
magnitude limit, or more than two magnitudes fainter than Pluto. Despite these
difficulties, Ebertine still casts horoscopes which include Trans-Pluto and
typifies the astrologer's oblivious, "keep on truckin" approach to their
predictive misfires.
'. Nor do the astrologers fare any better by taking into account the supposed
Influences of Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto in a given horoscope. For several years,
We have kept records of specific astrological predictions made in the printed
media. A total of 513 specific predictions were recorded, and of these 71, or
a)
165
14%, came true. No astrologer was able to predict correctly more than 20% of
the time. In this survey, the astrologers were given as much of the benefit of the
doubt as possible. Predictions which could have been attributed to shrewd
guesses, vague wording (there will be a tragedy in the eastern U'S. during the
spring months), or "inside" information, regarding the person(s) involved
("Starlet A will be married to Director B before Ground Hog Day"), were all
counted in the astrologers' "successful" columns. Some examples of the
astrological failures:
Not one astrologer predicted Jimmy Carter's meteoric rise to the
presidency prior to his primary election victories in the spring of 1976.
In the June 1976 "Ladies Home Journal," for example, Sybil Leek
predicted that Edward Kennedy and Ronald Reagan would be the 1976
presidential candidates.
Eva Petulengro in the July 8, 1975, issue of the "National Enquirer"
predicted that by year's end "North Korea - backed by Red China - will
take over South Korea without any interference from the U.S.".
In the same issue of the "National Enquirer," Jean Rignac predicted that
by the end of 1976, "Britain's Queen Elizabeth will give up the throne in
favor of her son, Prince Charles."
Katina Theodossiou predicted in the March 30, 1959, issue of
"Newsweek" that "the next period of prosperity in the U.S. will be in the
mid-1970's ."
166
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Figure 1.
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quantum theory in
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168
predicted the end of the world in 1999, and more recently, world-wide
catastrophes are currently scheduled for 1982(42) and 2011(43).
h The final line of retreat for astrological prediction is the traditional refain
t at "the stars incline, they do not compel," In other words, after all of the
abbracadabra, hocus-pocus, and murnbo-jumbo involved in "reading" a
horoscope and interpreting its meaning, the astrologer is still left with a final
out, namely that the heavenly influences can be overridden by one's own free
Will.
Throughout this discussion we have found time and again that traditional
astrology is sadly lacking in its ability or even desire to probe what we will refer
to ~s the Fundamental Astrological Principle - the idea that human beings and
thelr actions are influenced at least in part by celestial objects. But if traditional
astrology has failed in this endeavor, to what extent, if any, has the scientific
method succeeded?
._
Over the past three centuries scientists have discovered a number of celestial
age~ts, such as gravitational forces, electromagnetic radiation, and high energy
partIcles, which can affect tills planet and its creatures in a variety of ways. Tidal
forces stretclling and pulling the earth's crust may trigger some earthquakes(44)
and influence the time of volcanic eruptions(45). The correlation of weather
patterns with the lunar cycle is suggested in a study showing that days of
- l1laXimum precipitation occur near the middle of the first and third weeks of the
lunar month, especially on the third to fifth day after new or full moon(46);
peak thunderstorm activity has been claimed for two days after the full
11l00n(47). The raising and lowering of water tides has resulted in the
169
development of complicated behavior patterns in tidal marine life that have yet
to be fully understood by marine biologists. Other effects found in lunar
synchrony range from varying activity in the West Indian scarab beetle(48) and
the breeding habits of the California grunion to varying rates of intestinal
calcium transport in the frog(49).
In dealing with human behavior the situation is considerably more complex.
It is little wonder, then, that the few studies done on the topic have yielded
inconclusive and often contradictory results. Lieber and Sherin(SO) found that
the rate at which homicides occurred over a 15 year period in Dade County
(Miami, Florida) were significantly higher within 24 hours before or after full
moon and for 24 hours following new moon . Similar data on Cuyahoga County
(Cleveland, Ohio) homicides showed somewhat different peaks in the homicide
rate that were not statistically significant. A study conducted by a team of
behavior specialists at Edgecliff College in Cincinnati(S 1) of 34,318 criminal
offences from a one year period showed eight kinds of crimes to occur more
frequently during full moon; only homicide did not occur more frequently at
full phase. At the University of Virginia an examination of the daily frequency
of emergency rescue squad calls over a one year period showed no significant
periodicities.
Does the full moon effect human behavior in such a way as to produce
lunacy? A Kansas study suggests not. In comparing the number of emergency
psychiatric contacts on the day of the full moon with a 10 day interval before
full moon and the mean number during the week of the full moon, these
investigators found fewer emergency contacts on the full moon day(S2) .
Psychiatric admissions at the University of Virginia Hospital tend to be more
frequent on Mondays and not significantly greater at the time of full moon(S3).
In short, if celestial influences on human behavior, other than watching the
full moon rise over the ocean, do exist they may be very subtle and difficult to
separate from other factors which also have an impact on how we conduct
ourselves. If established such phenomena may well be understood as the result of
gravitational or electromagnetic effects on biological organisms that we are just
beginning to be able to measure. In passing judgment on these apparent
correlations it should always be kept in mind that "a statistical relationship,
however strong and however suggestive, can never establish a causal
connection"(S4). A great deal of careful study is still required. But most
importantly these possible "celestial influences" bear no resemblance to the
predictions and descriptions of traditional astrology and in no way support it.
All the evidence that we have examined suggests one thing: astrology does not
work.
170
171
38. Kuiper, G. and Middlehurst, B., Chapter 2, "Planets and Satellites," The University
of Chicago Press, Chicago (1961).
39. "New York Times Maga7.ine," Dec. 15, 1968, p. 3140. Davison, R., p. 169, "Astrology," ARea Publishing Company, Inc., New York
(1975).
41. "Commodities Yearbook," Commodity Research Bureau, Inc., New York (1976 and
1977 eds.).
42. Gribbin, J. and Plagernann, S., "The Jupiter Effect," Vintage Books, New YOlk
(1974).
43. Waters, F., "Mexico Mystique," Swallow Press, Inc., Chicago (p, 75).
44. Heaton, T. H., Geophys. J. Roy, Astron. Soc. 43, 307 (1975).
45. Mauk, F. J. and Johnston, MJ.S., J. Geophys, Res. 78, 3356 (1973) .
46. Bradley, D. A., Woodbury, M. A. and Brier, G. W., Science 137, 748 (1962).
47. Lethbridge , M. D., J. Geophys. Res. 75, 5149 (1970) .
48. Gruner, L., Ann. Zool. Ecol. Anim.7, 399 (1975) .
49. Robertson, D. R., Compo Biochem. Physiol. Camp. Physiol, 54, 225 (1976).
50. Leibel, A. and Sherin, C., Amer. J. Psychiat, 129, 69 (1972).
51. Tasso, J. and Miller, E., J., Psych. 93, 81 (1976) .
52. Walters, E., Markley, R. P. and Tiffany, D. W., J. Abnorrn, Psychol, 84, 715 (1975).
53. Rockwell, D., unpublished study.
54. Kendall, M. G. and Stuart, A., p. 11, "The Advanced Theory of Statistics," vol. II,
Haffner Publishing Co., New York (1972).
172