Unit Plan for Probability

Table of Contents
Achievement Objectives
Attitudes and Values
Generic Skills
Literacy activities
Lesson Outline
Glossary

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AO Level 4
Investigate situations that involve
elements of chance by comparing
experimental distributions with
expectations from models of the
possible outcomes.
Use simple fractions and percentages
to describe probabilities.
(NZ Curriculum)

Post-it notes will be used to find what

students know about probability, its
use in the real world and any words
they know associated with probability.
These will be grouped and then
discussed as a class.
(Make connections to prior learning
and experience - NZ Curriculum - p34)

Students will keep a diary of new

words and specific vocabulary they
come across related to probability.
These will discussed and added to
each lesson with definitions and
contexts.

Subject: Mathematics & Statistics

Standard Title:

Year Level: 9

(When students at this level create

texts, they select from their repertoire
of planning strategies according to
their purpose - The Literacy Learning
Progressions p20)

Duration:

AO Level 5

Probability

Achievement Objectives: S3-3; S4-3; S4-4; NA4-5

Attitudes:

What will this look like?

Students will:

KHS Values:

What will this look like?

Students will:

Tasks that contribute towards

developing the Attitudes and Values

Curiosity

Asking questions and challenging their

understanding of randomness and
simple probability

Respect
Aroha atu

Listening to others ideas without

comment or judgement

Change seating plan every day using

cards. Learn to work with others

Open
Mindedness

Challenge their understanding of

randomness and probability

Pride
Tu Pono

Completing work to the best of their

ability

Group activities where all are

responsible for data collection

Perseverance

Ask for help and keep trying when

problems seem too hard

Participation
Urunga

Work cooperatively in groups

Make decisions about an experiment

like the number of trials, the equipment
to ensure fairness

Empathy

Help others to understand concepts and

dont leave any of your group behind

Self-Management
Tona Ake Tu

Complete the tasks required in a timely

manner

Perseverance
(and resilience)
Tu Tono

Ask for help and keep trying

What will this look like?

Students will:

Generic Skills

Devise a strategy to investigate or solve a

problem

Communicate thinking/solutions using

appropriate mathematical statements/symbols

Determine the number of trials that are

needed to get enough information to make a
decision.

Use a variety of equipment dice, spinners,

computers, random numbers, cards




Link dierent concepts and representation




Simple experiment biased coin, poke machine, walk the plank

Highest Number use the data from the experiment to make decisions
about the value of the prize and the number of prizes for a game.

Explain the problem in their own words

what am I being asked to do?
Appropriate mathematical language
(vocabulary and symbols) used

Make decisions based on results of experimental data e.g. Highest Number,

Dice Duels, Prisoner Game

Alternate the use of fractions, decimals and

percentages between 0 and 1
Complementary events P(A) + P(A) = 1

Create a number line with the three representations of numbers between 0

and 1. Estimate fractions, decimals and percentages on an empty number
line. Know that 40% success matches a 60% fail.

Estimate with reasonableness and calculate

with precision.

Estimate probabilities based on context and

round to required precision

Experiments estimate results based on theoretical probability BEFORE

doing the experiments

Relate solutions to applications in other

subjects, mathematical or other contexts

Relate the use of probability to statistics and

other subject material e.g. health




Collect probability statistics in media and discuss the meaning

Create a poster or wall display with examples of probability

Catering for Gifted & Talented Students :

Links

Catering for Maori/Pacifica Students:

Catering for Outside Targeted Level:

Links
Simple experiments using single dice, focus
on doing, recording and writing results

Links

Create a simulation for a situation where

there is no theoretical probability available




Level 3 exemplar task National standards

Level 3 exemplar National Standards
Level 4 exemplar task National Standards
Probability Quiz challenges concepts

Biased or Fair? Dice Duels Single Dice

assessment

Student Feedback/Feedforward:


(When students at this level read,

respond to, and think critically about
texts, they monitor their reading for
accuracy and sense, demonstrating that
they have the confidence to adjust their
reading (e.g. by varying the speed of
reading, by rereading, and by attending
to the most important information)
when they encounter difficulties. The
literacy learning progressions - page 18)

Scaolding tasks with students

The use of writing frames

Use of Glossaries

Formative Assessment:

Use simple fractions and percentages to

describe probabilities.
(NZ Curriculum)

Literacy / Numeracy Strategies :

Winning the Lottery Mini Lotto

Diagnostic Assessment:

Investigate situations that involve

elements of chance by comparing
experimental distributions with expectations from models of the possible
outcomes, acknowledging variation and
independence.

Many opportunities will be given for

students to see and read exemplars to
help understand how the specific vocabulary is used in probability.

Task/Activity

When students are given a new

context they will be encouraged to
mind-map in groups or in pairs they
can take turns writing one idea or
piece of knowledge about that
context until everything they know or
think they know is written down.

Curriculum Level: 4-5

Teacher Reflection / Evaluation :



End of Unit Review

Plenty of practice time given for creating

tree diagrams, tables and using the
probability formula.

Summative assessment for this unit

plan was changed to a test which is
attached below with the marking
criteria.

AOs covered

Summative Assessment

Test
Group investigation: follow a set of
instructions to complete an
experiment and report on the
ndings.

S4-3; S4-4

There are a number of games in the Figure It Out Statistics books

Also check nzMaths website

Teaching Unit Plan and Resourcesfor year 9

Starter activities that use dice: largest number (smallest number); Rocket (Numeracy Bk 4); Greedy Pig;

Kaupapa o te wa (LI)
Students will learn where and how
probability can be used.

Timeline

Key ideas

Breakdown

Literacy and ICT

What is probability and

where is it used?

 Know probability is a measure

of chance
 Know words to describe
probabilities
 Know numerical range of
probabilities
 Weather forecasting,
medical/genetics, games,
economics/stock market,
future planning

Impossible, likely,
unlikely, certain,
uncertain 0 1 and
0 100% scales

 Divide shapes into equal parts

and name as a unit fraction
 Add fractions with common
denominators

Name fractions

There are two ways to

calculate probabilities
experimental and
theoretical (models)

LI - Students will learn to use fractions

to display mathematical probability.

1/2

LI - students will learn to use fractions,

decimals, and percentages to display
mathematical probability.

Fractions are used to

describe equally likely
events

Identify all possible


outcomes of simple events

and assign numerical
probability values to simple
events


identify all possible outcomes

of an event
assign probabilities to simple
events using fractions (1/2,
1/6, 1/10 etc)
determine the theoretical
probability of simple events
using percentages, fractions
and decimals

IT Resources and Activities

Page references and

Worksheets

Probability Quiz Original

The Probability Book (UFR)
pg 7 (Quiz question 1)

Post - it prior knowledge activity can be

done here. Students could do an activity where they work in groups to compose and present a weather report to
the class including correct vocabulary
and shown that the likeliness of rain for
example is a probability and not a
certainty.

Focus 3 pg 455

(Students learn most effectively when

they have time and opportunity to
engage with, practise, and transfer new
learning. This means that they need to
encounter new learning a number of
times and in a variety of different tasks
or contexts. NZ Curriculum p34).

e.g. as 1 part out

3

of 3
Sample space,
event, equally likely,
fair
Notation P(event)

I'm spinning L3 NZMaths

Focus 3 pg 458 Ex 13B

What's in the Bag? L3NZmaths

Coin Toss interactive

Highest Number Game

Coin Toss Exploration

Questions

Understand the concept of

randomness and
unpredictability

What does random mean?

What does random look like?

randomness

Fooling the teacher

Make spinners with equally

likely outcomes.

Random Scatter example

Random Walks
Spinner Matchup

LI - Students will learn to use a tally

chart to display the results of trials.

Compare experimental
distributions with
expectations from models
of possible outcomes (L4)





Record the results of trials to

create a probability
distribution as a tally chart,
dotplot or stem and leaf
graph, spreadsheet
A large number of trials is
required to replicate a model
Dierent samples give
dierent, but similar results
Use experimental
distributions to nd a loaded
dice
Know the meaning of fair and
biased

long-run frequency
tally chart
dot plot/bar graph

Dice Duels Fair dice

Find the bias
Investigations 1,2, 3

FIO Statistics4 Bk1

Dodgy Dice pg 22

One dice assessment

Many opportunities will be given using

dice, coins, counters and interactive
computer activities to run trials and
practice using tables, tree diagrams and
the probability formula. Kahoot will also
be used frequently as an end of lesson
activity to test knowledge and understanding.

Students will be given opportunities to

pursue probability in areas that interest
them. They will given time to brainstorm
areas they would like to look into eg
probability of the Warriors making the
final 8 in the NRL. Probability of The
Blacksticks geting gold in the Olympics.

Random or not - analyse runs

of jubes 2 types
Analyse runs of jubes - 3 types
Long run frequency Spinners
Roll em and excel simulator

LI - Students will learn to find the

probability of multiple events using
tree diagrams.

It is possible to continue this unit with singe dice or spinner activities. The Dice Duel for single dice and spinners can b e extended to identifying bias. The following activities
involve creating a distribution from adding and subtracting the results of a dice experiment. Use experiments like Airport a ddition, Prisoners Game and Wallowing Whales
to introduce the idea of an unequal distribution before having the students calculate the theoretical distributions.
2

Identify all possible


outcomes of more complex
events


systematically nd all possible

outcomes of an event using
tree diagrams and organised
lists

tree diagram

Counting on Probability
Airport addition
Wink, Blink and Stare

Focus 3 pg 462
FIO Statistics4 Bk1
Catch of the Match pg 18

Managing self as a key competencie is

a school value linked at the start of
this unit.
This competency is associated with
self-motivation, a can-do attitude,
and with students seeing themselves
as capable learners. It is integral to
self-assessment. NZ curriculum p12

Prisoners Game dice

dierences 6 or 12 sided

Use probability concepts to 

investigate a situation

FIO Statistics4 Bk1

Across the River pg 19
Wallowing Whales pg 20

Adjustable spinner interactive

Adjustable spinner
Exploration Questions

Experimental Probability

Experimental Probability
Exploration Questions
Spinner Experiments Tally
Table
FIO Statistics4 Bk1
Game Show pg 24
MiniLotto 2 from 6

Probability Trees

Pixar and Khan Academy - how to

make crowds

Key Competencies - Thinking

(Students who are competent thinkers
and problem-solvers actively seek, use,
and create knowledge. They reflect on
their own learning, draw on personal
knowledge and intuitions, ask questions, and challenge the basis of
assumptions and perceptions. NZ
Curriculum p12).
Participating and contributing
This competency is about being actively
involved in communities. NZ Curriculum
p12 - Students will be encouraged to
engage in probability activities with
thier communities eg tree diagram of
male to female ratio in whanau for
homework. School whanau group
sports activity probabilities. Class probabilities of growing taller than 6ft by the
age of 20 etc.

NZC Probability and NumberLevels 3 - 5

Level
3

Strand name
S3-3
Investigate simple situations that involve elements of chance by comparing experimental results with expectations from models of all the outcomes,
acknowledging that samples vary.
NA3-5 Know fractions and percentages in everyday use.
This means students will understand that probability is about the chance of outcomes occurring. At Level Three students shoul
d recognise that it is not possible to know the
exact probability of something occurringin most everyday situations, for example the chance of a day in March being fine. They should understand that trialling must
be
used to gain information about the situation and that the results of trial samples vary, for example March 2008 is likely tobe different from March 2009. Contrived chance
events are used to highlight the variation between expected outcomes from models, and experimental outcomes from trialling.
evel
L Three students are expected to use
systematic methods such as listing, tree diagrams with equally likely outcomes, or tables to find all the possible outcomes of simple situations such as tossing coins, dra
wing
ti vary from one another, and from the
cards, or rolling dice. They should accept that experimental samples from those situations, for example tossing a coin tenmes,
proportions expected from a model, that is, most times five heads do not come up.
http://nzmaths.co.nz/ao/s3-3-investigate-simple-situations-involve-elements-chance-comparing-experimental-results-expecta
S4-3
Investigate situations that involve elements of chance by comparing experimental distributions with expectations from mode ls of the possible outcomes,
acknowledging variation and independence.
This means students will understand that probability is about the chance of outcomes occurring. At Level Four students should
recognise that it is not possible to know the
exact probability of something occurring in most everyday situations, for example the probability of someone being left
-handed. They should understand that trialling must
be used to gain information about the situation and that the results of trial samples vary, for ex
ample different samples of 100 people will have different proportions.
Contrived chanceevents are used to highlight the variation between expected outcomes from models, and experimental outcomes from trialling.
evel
L Four students are
expected to use systematic methods such as listing, tree or network diagrams with equally likely outcomes, and tables to find all the possible tcomes
ou
of simple one or two
stage situations such as tossing two coins, drawing counters from a bag, or rolling two dice. Students
should compare the distributions they get from trialling with the
next (independence), for example take
expectations obtained from models, accepting variation between samples and that the results of one sample do not impact one th
samples of twenty counters, with replacement, from a bag that has one-half red, one-third blue and one-sixth yellow. Accept that an eight red, seven blue, and five yellow
result is natural and that it will not be compensated by the next sample
http://nzmaths.co.nz/ao/s4-3-investigate-situations-involve-elements-chance-comparing-experimental-distributions-expectat
S4-4
Use simple fractions and percentages to describe probabilities.
Simple fractions and percentages in this objective are common benchmarks like one half (50%), thirds (33.3% and 66.6%), quart
ers (25% and 75%), fifths (20%, 40%, 60%,
80%), tenths (10%, 30%, etc). Students should know that outcomes that are certain are described by fractions equalling one, including 100%, and
outcomes that are

impossible are described by fractions equalling zero, including 0%. In contrived situations involving elements
f chance,
o
for example totalling two dice, students should know
that the count of all possible outcomes gives the denominator of a probability fraction, for example 36 possible outcomes,dan
the number of desired outcomes gives the
numerator, for example there are 9 ways to get a total of either 2,4 or 6 so the probability is 9/36 or 1/4 . In realistic situations where probabilities are estimated, for
example the chance of a drawing pin landing safe, students are expected to accept variation from an exactaction,
fr
for example 37 out of 100 were safe which is about or
33.3%.
http://nzmaths.co.nz/ao/s4-4-use-simple-fractions-and-percentages-describe-probabilities
NA4-5 Know the equivalent decimal and percentage forms for everyday fractions.

S5-3
Compare and describe the variation between theoretical and experimental distributions in situations that involve elements of chance.
Students at Level Five understand that elements of chance have an effect on the certainty of results from surveys or experiments. Through examples fromalrelife they
should understand that statistics usually involves situations where the actual probabilities are not known, for exampl
e, probability of catching a disease. They should
recognise situations where deterministic theoretical models are not possible, for example chance of a bus being early, andstinguish
di
them from situations where
probabilities can be reasoned from all the possibilities.
This means that students will identify the theoretical probabilities for situations involving chance by using proportionspossible
of
outcomes. For example, they will
recognise that the probability of rolling an even number on a standard die
is 1/2 because there are 6 possible outcomes and 3 of them are even, 3/6 = 1/2.
They will carry out experiments to test the probability of events and compare their results with theoretical probabilities.hey
T will understand that some variation between
experimental estimates of probability and theoretical probabilities is normal, for example, when rolling a die 10 times they llwinot usually roll an even number 5 of the
times. They will understand that a larger sample is likely to provide a more accuratetheoretical probability, proportionally speaking, than a small one.
Students will also understand that the results of past trials in probability experiments do not impact on future events, for
example the fact that an even number has been
rolled three times in a row does not make it more likely that the fourth roll will be an odd number.
http://nzmaths.co.nz/ao/s5-3-compare-and-describe-variation-between-theoretical-and-experimental-distributions-situations
S5-4
Calculate probabilities, using fractions, percentages, and ratios.
This means that students will calculate probabilities forprobability situations that involve two or more events.These events may be independent (for example rolling two
dice, or tossing two coins) or dependent (for example drawing two cards from a deck of cards without replacement, or choosing
to students from the class at random). They
probabilities as proportions using fractions,
will be able to model these situations using models such as tree diagrams, tables and systematic lists and assign theoretical
percentages and ratios, for example the odds of winningthe game are 2:3.
Students should also be able to estimate probabilities given results of sufficient trials. Such estimates are always approxim
ate, and require use of equivalent proportions, for
example an experiment results in a ratio of 43 blue: 79 red.An estimate of the probability of red is 2/3 or 67%.
http://nzmaths.co.nz/ao/s5-4-calculate-probabilities-using-fractions-percentages-and-ratios
NA5-5 Know commonly used fraction, decimal, and percentage conversions.

Glossary