BMW Report
BMW Report
BMW Report
Fundamental Analysis
BMW
Yevgeniy Sydorenko ID 26481
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................... 3
Company Overview......................................................................................................... 3
Macro Analysis/PESTEL.................................................................................................... 4
Political and Economic Forces...................................................................................... 4
Social and Technologic Forces...................................................................................... 4
Environmental and Legal Forces.................................................................................. 4
Global Car Industry Analysis........................................................................................... 4
Overview of the Car Industry....................................................................................... 4
Industry Attractiveness................................................................................................ 6
Key Segments by Geography.................................................................................... 6
Premium Market Assessment.................................................................................... 7
Key Success Factors.................................................................................................. 7
Porters Five Forces Analysis..................................................................................... 8
Company Analysis........................................................................................................... 8
Performance Trend....................................................................................................... 8
Sales by Regions and Trend......................................................................................... 9
DRIVE Analysis.............................................................................................................. 11
Valuation....................................................................................................................... 12
FCFF calculations....................................................................................................... 12
Multiples..................................................................................................................... 12
Conclusion and Recommendations...............................................................................13
References.................................................................................................................... 14
Appendices.................................................................................................................... 16
Appendix 1: BMW Sales segment and Operating Profit..............................................16
Appendix 2: PESTEL analysis for BMW.......................................................................16
Compare Analysis Gross Profit Margin with German Big Three..................................18
Appendix 4: Global players such as BMW are considered to be the best prepared....19
Appendix 5: DRIVE Analysis....................................................................................... 19
Introduction
The car industry is one of the most dynamic industries in the world with globalization
continuing to force companies to restructure, and keep up with the driving demand of
both consumers as well as industry regulations. Subsequently, companies are
constantly monitoring industry attractiveness for both survival as well as growth.
Capabilities are seen as key to gaining competitive advantage in a rapidly changing
market with joint ventures, alliances and M&A seen as a necessary ingredient for the
automobile industry to operate successfully internationally while driving sales and
reducing manufacturing costs. Corporate strategies have evolved to include
sustainable practices and rapid technological advancements with no auto maker willing
to forego market share (Potter, 2016).
This report will analyse BMW Group (BMW) corporate direction based on the macro
environment and internal capabilities whilst providing recommendations that will add
value, advance market share, sustain shareholder interests and remain a global player
in an unforgiving industry.
Company Overview
BMW was established in 1926, the German company initially began operations in the
production of engines and in 1928 ventured into the automotive sector. The parent
group Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW AG) operate three segments, Motorcycles,
Financial services and the most profitable Automotive sector (Appendix 1). The
company owns three premium brands, BMW, MINI and Rolls Royce. The minis lineage
traces back to British ancestry established in 1959, it was known as an immensely
popular iconic small car and was part of a series of acquisitions which eventually
formed part of the Rover Group owned by British Leyland which BMW acquired in 1994.
However in 2000 the Rover group broke up and BMW retained the Mini brand (BMW,
2016).
The Rolls Royce brand was established in 1906, BMW acquired exclusive license rights
to the British companys name in 1998 from its parent company Rolls-Royce PLC as
well as trademarks from Volkswagen. BMW AG established the wholly owned subsidiary
under a new entity known as Rolls-Royce Motors which did not start producing cars
until 2003. All three brands are highly regarded today and BMW is a global leader in
the premium sector (BMW, 2016).
Macro Analysis/PESTEL
A macro analysis utilizing the PESTEL framework is adept at showing environmental
factors that impact the automotive industry (Johnson, 2016).
Additionally, the number of cars sold in developed markets within Western Europe, USA
and Japan has shifted to emerging economies particularly BRICS and ASEAN which
currently, boast 60% of all sales worldwide hence, outpacing the total number of sales
in NAFTA, EU and Japan (KPMG, 2016).
50000000
4572333
4203181
40000000
3905310
6833529
3509036
7363460
9039036
8639763
6569033
30000000
26294715
21039621
22679959
24324085
1270882
1610327
1672710
2153897
2353264
14166410
13406111
13181252
12095546
11887502
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
16346828
20000000
10000000
EU
ASEAN
BRICS
NAFTA
Japan
Source: www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/
For five consecutive years BRICS has remained the leader in car production, in 2016
alone over 26 million cars were produced, with the remaining regions EU, NAFTA and
ASEAN producing 23 million combined (figure 1). This trend is expected to continue as
BRICS and NAFTA expand their production facilities with new plants (WSJ, 2015).
Subsequently, in line with the changing environment BMW are also producing new
plants in Brazil, Russia and the NAFTA region (figure 2) (BMW, 2016).
23654094
22101221
20817071
20000000
15956715
15260094
13998907
15000000
10000000
8310362
6862161
5000000
1669941
2012
1664333
2013
EU
ASEAN
14637950
2285155
2014
BRICS
NAFTA
14640306
8554503
6959318
7158525
5624553
5084330
3960731
1188259
15708191
2015
8189323
7106013
2627181
2016
Japan
Industry Attractiveness
The analysis on the industrys attractiveness based on geography and KSFs
characteristics are discussed below:
Company Analysis
Performance Trend
Despite the high volatility within the car market BMWs sales volume has increased
over the last 5 years. During the FY2016 BMW reported historical levels of total sales
for all three brands with a total of 1,963,798 vehicles sold worldwide (figure 6).
Nevertheless, the growth ratio has declined by more than half since the FY2013 from
13.6% to FY2013 to 6.4%. Thus BMW decreased their pace of growth possibly due to a
mature market and high competitive environment. Irrespectively, BMW retains its
leading position within the premium segment.
BMWs sales have consistently increased for the past 10 years, its FY2016 revenue has
doubled since FY2007. During the recession (FY2012-2013) the gross profit margins
dipped but quickly increased thereafter. Despite this progress the figures have not
reached pre-recessions levels (figure 7). Regardless BMWs profitability still
outperforms its German competitor Audi, but struggles to outclass it primary
competitor Daimler. There are a number of reasons that may explain this discrepancy,
for instance it is possible that vehicle selling prices have not increased in the past five
years or that production costs have increased due to heavy investment in
technological advances (appendix 3).
Subsequently, the 5 years sales trend from FY2012-FY2016 follow the logic of the
industry analysis discussed earlier which shows the lack of growth within the German
market, depicting a decreased growth ratio. Alternatively, the USA has remained the
same but this may possibly change as BMW builds new production plants in order to
keep up with the recovering USA automobile industry (BMW, 2016).
China has rapidly tripled its growth from 7% to 20% in the same period capturing
19.7% of BMWs total sales. On the other hand the Americas share of sales sit at 6%,
but their pace of growth is more than 50% thus significantly outpacing the USA.
Consequently, BMW ought to leverage the opportunity of potential growth and sales in
BRICS countries.
DRIVE Analysis
The analysis below will provide a succinct summary of the internal audit. For a detailed
DRIVE analysis, refer to (Appendix 5).
Distinctive Capabilities
Resource Gap
Issues of Concern
Viable Options
Expectations
Valuation
FCFF calculations
FCFF Projections (in Mil)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016E
2017E
EBIT
921
289
5 111,00
8 018,00
8 275,00
7 979,00
9 117,00
9 906,52
10 631,61
Taxes
0,49
0,49
0,33
0,34
0,34
0,32
0,33
0,32
0,32
468,31
146,95
3 415,41
5 329,04
5 420,16
5 387,39
6 090,57
6 761,27
7 256,15
7 715,
3 670,00
3 600,00
3 682,00
3 646,00
3 541,00
3 741,00
4 170,00
4 765,63
5 327,11
5 890
EBIT(1-T)
11 305
44
69
21
18
252
195
223,5
223,5
22
Total Investments
8 919,00
4 556,00
7 153,00
10 502,00
7 211,00
6 926,00
13 594,00
6 870,17
12 973,97
12 433
Variation NWC
4 715,00
1 085,00
3 890,00
6 823,00
1 975,00
233
7 495,00
465,01
6 267,47
5 260
4 204,00
3 471,00
3 263,00
3 679,00
5 236,00
6 693,00
6 099,00
6 405,16
6 706,50
7 172
-4 736,69
-740,05
-53,59 -1 505,96
1 768,16
2 454,39 -3 138,43
4 880,23
-167,21
1 396,
Capex
FCFF
Terminal Value
WACC
128 318,66
0,032
Discount factor
PV FCFF
FIRM VALUE
MV Debt
Cash
Pension Provisions
Equity
# shares
Po
10 709,53
0,97
0,94
4 727,48
-156,91
1 269
139 028,20
70 702,98
7 688,00
4 604,00
71 409,21
656,5
108,77
Multiples
Source: www.sharewise.com/us/instruments/BMW/analysis
BMW AG is considered undervalued in both of its historical P/S ratio and peer P/S ratio
comparison analysis. As a result, this stock is therefore currently considered
'undervalued'. However NMW AG would be considered 'overvalued' if its price
exceeded 112.89 $.
Currently, BMW AG is considered 'undervalued' by the valuation because its P/S ratio is
lower than its historical average.
On the other hand, the P/S ratio of this stock tends to have a high correlation with the
average of domestic companies in the same industry. As a result, many investors may
estimate the trend of its sales by comparing the company with sales trends of
domestic companies in the same industry. As a result, BMW AG is currently considered
'undervalued' based on its peer comparison analysis because its P/S ratio is lower than
the average P/S ratio of domestic companies in the same industry.
Sales of cars in 2016: + 6.1% y / y. This was faster than the overall world market (+
3.3% y / y in new registrations)
Revenue in 2016: 14.6 y / y to 92.175 billion euros amid rising vehicle sales and
favorable currency fluctuations
Net profit in 2016: + 10%, EUR 8.4 billion
The debt burden remained virtually unchanged since the end of 2014 debt ratios D / E
and the net debt / E at the end of 2015 were at a level of 2.14 and 1.73. Almost all the
debt, "hanging" on the balance of the financial unit, which is characterized by such a
loan burden
Dividend payments in 2015: + 11.8% y / y, 1.917 billion euros
BMW shares dividend yield stands at 4.14%
In my opinion, the risks of investment in shares of BMW is now linked with external factors - the
economy and the industry (Volkswagen scandal), and not with the company itself.
Against the background of falling stock prices and the growth of the company's revenue
multiples were at fairly low levels. In comparison with analogues (BMW, Daimler, Toyota) BMW
shares traded around an average level, but BMW makes cars exclusively premium, which
reduces business risks. Compared with the industry is not undervalued, but is rather a whole
group peers underestimated, and the main driver of BMW growth of quotations on the stock
exchange will be performing market factors rather than factors unique BMW (the company so
great results). If we compare with the German equity market, the paper BMW look more
profitable the other "blue chips": on CNN Money According to the average P / E DAX index
companies is 18.4. BMW, in turn, is trading at x7.6 annual profits. In relation to its own historical
References
1.
24/7 Wall ST (2013) Car Brands with the Most Loyal Drivers [online] Available
from: http://247wallst.com/special-report/2013/07/08/car-brands-with-the-most-loyalcustomers/2/ [Accessed on 19 February 2015].
2.
Bloomberg (2015) Rolls-Royce Confirms Plans for Super-Luxury SUV [online]
Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/rolls-royceannounces-plans-for-super-luxury-suv [Accessed on 28 February 2015].
3.
BMW (2014) Annual Report 2013. [online] Available from:
http://www.bmwgroup.com/e/0_0_www_bmwgroup_com/investor_relations/finanzber
ichte/geschaeftsberichte/2013/_pdf/report2013.pdf [Accessed on 3 February 2015].
4.
BMW (2014) iDrive. [online] Available from:
http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/technology/technology_guide/articles/idrive.ht ml
[Accessed on 6 February 2015].
5.
BMW (2014) Press Release BMW Innovations at the 2015 Consumer Electronics
Show (CES) in Las Vegas. 360-degree collision avoidance and fully-automated parking
in multi-storey car parks. [online] Available from:
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/pressDetail.html?title=bmw-innovations-atthe-2015-consumer-electronics-show-ces-in-las-vegas-360-degree-collisionavoidance&id=T0198231EN [Accessed on 6 February 2015].
6.
BMW (2015) TOMORROW'S TECHNOLOGIES. [online] Available from:
http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/technology/efficientdynamics/phase_2/
[Accessed on 3 February 2015].
7.
Evalueserve (2012), Platform Strategy will Shape Future of OEMs Flexibility to
Drive Growth [online] Available from: https://sandhill.com/wpcontent/files_mf/evalueservewhitepaperplatformstrategywillshapefutureofoems.pdf
[Accessed on 6 February 2015].
8.
Forbes (2014) BMW Is Testing A Vehicle That Can Be Controlled With A
Smartwatch
[online] Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/12/19/bmw-istesting-a-vehicle-that-can-be-controlled-with-a-smartwatch/ [Accessed on 6 February
2015].
9.
Forbes (2014) Worlds Most Valuable Brands. [online] Available from:
http://www.forbes.com/companies/bmw-group/ [Accessed on 19 February 2015].
10.
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http://www.bestglobalbrands.com/2014/bmw/ [Accessed on 19 February 2015].
11.
Johnson, G. (2014) Exploring strategy: text and cases Tenth edition. edn,
Pearson, Harlow.
12.
KPMG (2015) KPMGs Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015 [online]
Available from:
http://www.kpmg.com/global/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/globalautomotive-executive-survey/pages/2015-report.aspx [Accessed on 3 February 2015].
13.
Luxurysociety (2014) Record Sales For Luxury Car Brands in 2013 [online]
Available from: http://luxurysociety.com/articles/2014/01/record-sales-for-luxury-carbrands-in-2013 [Accessed on 27 February 2015].
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McKinsey (2014) The road to 2020 and beyond: Whats driving the global
automotive industry? [online] Available from:
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[Accessed on 2 February 2015].
15.
OICA (2013) WORLD MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION Available from:
http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/worldpro2012-modificationranking.pdf [Accessed on 3 February 2014].
16.
OICA (2014), Sales statistics by country [online]. Available from:
http://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/ [Accessed on 3 February 2015 ]
17.
Potter N.S. (2013) The Global Automotive Industry: Facing up to Uncertainty and
Rapid Change, lecture notes distributed in Strategic Analysis of Business, at the
University of Birmingham, UK.
18.
Potter N.S. (2013) Why SWOT when you can DRIVE, lecture notes distributed in
Strategic Analysis of Business, at the University of Birmingham, UK.
19.
Telegraph (2013) Aston Martin signs engine deal with Mercedes-AMG [online]
Available from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/motoring/19368/aston-martin-signsengine-deal-with-mercedes-amg.html [Accessed 1 March 2015]
20.
The Guardian (2015) Rolls-Royce to make off-road vehicle (but don't call it an
SUV)
[online] Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/18/rolls-roycemake-luxury-off-road-vehicle-suv-4x4 [Accessed on 28 February 2015].
21.
Thomsonone (2015) Trusted Financial Content for Superior Decision Making
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23.
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[Accessed on 12 February 2015].
24.
WSJ (2015) Aston Martin Outlines an Expanded Lineup [online] Available from:
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Appendices
Appendix 1: BMW Sales segment and Operating Profit
Political factors
Economic factors
GDP fluctuations directly affects sales. During the 2008 crisis, car sales were
significantly declining however, the recovering economy is now seeing an upwards
trend especially in US and BRICS countries.
The declining oil prices conveys positively for automakers as consumers are
inclined to buy vehicles due to the low cost of petrol.
Social factors
Although sales of low emission cars are not comparable to traditional ones,
modern society is becoming conscious of the negative impact vehicle emissions have
on the environment. Manufacturers ought to be environmentally aware and lower CO2
emissions while communicating their social awareness to consumers to strengthen
brand image.
The increasing population in countries like China, Brazil and Russia, especially in
the young adults group, means more sales opportunities for car manufactures.
Technological factors
Improvements in R&D over the last few years follow the current trend of using
alternative, less damaging fuels and cannot be decreased otherwise sales will be lost
to competitors.
Environmental factors
The car industry is heavily regulated and car makers are required to be flexible
and quickly adapt to avoid paying further taxes or even embargo in some countries.
This means continued investment in R&D and transparent communications with the
general public much like the example of BMW who publish not only in an annual report
but also advertise in social media.
NGOs such as Greenpeace are actively looking for any gaps in complying with
regulations and the impact of the construction of new plants in green fields is
keptunder surveillance. Environmental scandals are detrimental to an automakers
reputation.
Legal factors
The premium sector sees a mass import and export of car parts and depending
on the protection level in some countries, trading may become cumbersome. Alliances
such as NAFTA, EU and BRICS permit local players to trade freely within trade countries
but there is always the possibility of regulations changes thus automakers must be
agile and responsive.
Resource Gaps
Even though BMW expanded the manufactures in all over the world, BMWs cars are
very expensive, as they keep higher quality for engines, visual, infotainments than
other non-premium brands. In addition, BMW is much smaller than TOYOTA or GM
groups, since BMW implemented M&A and built strategic partnerships in fewer times
than such giant groups. This fact is one of the biggest reasons of BMWs small market
share in BRICS countries.
Issues of Concern
Although BMW had the highest sales in the premium market which is really
competitive, as is followed by Audi with the gap 75,138 unit sales in 2013 (Figure I). As
UN2 adapted Kyoto Protocol in 2012, all automotive company has to consider about
green awareness and also regulations of environment protection (UN, 2014). On the
other hand, currency exchange market and oil prices are issues to the firm, because
BMWs main revenue comes from non-EU countries. For example, in 2013 it had in
NAFTA 17% and in BRICS 49% (BMW, 2014). Furthermore, BMW should consider its
price strategy and the reduction of its cost maintaining the quality, as it has expensive
products and one of the highest costs of ownership in this industry (Figure II).