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    Assignment Ch1

    Uploaded by

    Andy Leung
    The document contains 5 problems related to probability and statistics. Problem 1 calculates the probability that a basketball team wins tonight and draws a large crowd tomorrow. Problem 2 calculates probabilities related to the number of people from different tribes at two oases. Problem 3 estimates the standard deviation of pencil sales data. Problem 4 calculates probabilities related to the time to complete a construction project. Problem 5 calculates the probability that a market will be good given the results of a market study.

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    Assignment Ch1

    Uploaded by

    Andy Leung
    973 views2 pages
    The document contains 5 problems related to probability and statistics. Problem 1 calculates the probability that a basketball team wins tonight and draws a large crowd tomorrow. Problem 2 calculates probabilities related to the number of people from different tribes at two oases. Problem 3 estimates the standard deviation of pencil sales data. Problem 4 calculates probabilities related to the time to complete a construction project. Problem 5 calculates the probability that a market will be good given the results of a market study.

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    The document contains 5 problems related to probability and statistics. Problem 1 calculates the probability that a basketball team wins tonight and draws a large crowd tomorrow. Problem 2 calculates probabilities related to the number of people from different tribes at two oases. Problem 3 estimates the standard deviation of pencil sales data. Problem 4 calculates probabilities related to the time to complete a construction project. Problem 5 calculates the probability that a market will be good given the results of a market study.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    973 views2 pages

    Assignment Ch1

    Uploaded by

    Andy Leung
    The document contains 5 problems related to probability and statistics. Problem 1 calculates the probability that a basketball team wins tonight and draws a large crowd tomorrow. Problem 2 calculates probabilities related to the number of people from different tribes at two oases. Problem 3 estimates the standard deviation of pencil sales data. Problem 4 calculates probabilities related to the time to complete a construction project. Problem 5 calculates the probability that a market will be good given the results of a market study.

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    Chap 1 Probability & Statistics (Due Sept 15)

    0.7

    1. The Springfield Kings, a professional basketball team, has won 14 of its last 20 games and is
    expected to continue winning at the same percentage rate. The teams ticket manager is
    anxious to attract a large crowd to tomorrows game but believes that depends on how well
    the Kings perform tonight against the Galveston Comets. He assesses the probability of
    drawing a large crowd to be 0.86 should the team win tonight. What is the probability that
    the team wins tonight and that there will be a large crowd at tomorrows game? = 0.7 * 0.86
    = 0.602

    2. The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 23
    Bedouin tribesmen and 25 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of
    soldier has no idea 35 Bedouins and 9 Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is
    which oasis he has wandering through the desert and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no
    found, therefore its
    idea which oasis he has found, but the first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What
    a 50/50
    is the probability that he wandered into Abu Ilan? What is the probability that he is in El
    P (Bedouin) = 0.63
    P (Abu Ilan & Bedouin) = 0.25
    P (Bedouin | Abn Ilan) = 23 / 48
    Kamin? P (Abu Ilan) = 48 / 92
    P (El Kamin) = 44 / 92

    P (Bedouin | El Kamin) = 35 / 44

    P (Abu Ilan | Bedouin) = 0.25 / 0.63 = 0.396

    P (El Kamin & Bedouin) = 0.38

    P (El Kamin | Bedouin) = 0.38 / 0.63 = 0.603

    3. Armstrong Faber produces a standard number-two pencil called Ultra-Lite. Since Chuck
    Armstrong started Armstrong Faber, sales have grown steadily. With the increase in the price
    of wood products, however, Chuck has been forced to increase the price of the Ultra-Lite
    pencils. As a result, the demand for Ultra-Lite has been fairly stable over the past 6 years. On
    average, Armstrong Faber has sold 457,000 pencils each year. Furthermore, 90% of the time
    sales have been between 454,000 and 460,000 pencils. It is expected that the sales follow a
    normal distribution with a mean of 457,000 pencils. Estimate the standard deviation of this
    distribution. (Hint: you may need the Standard Normal Table provided in the next page)
    4. The time to complete a construction project is normally distributed with a mean of 61 weeks
    and a standard deviation of 3 weeks. (a) What is the probability the project will be finished in
    = (63 - 61) / 3
    63 weeks or less? (b) What is the probability the project will be finished in 66 weeks or less?
    = 0. 74857
    = 74.8%
    (c) What is the probability the project will take longer than 65 weeks?
    = (66-61) / 3
    = 0.95254
    = 95.3%

    5. Market Researchers, Inc., has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a
    new product will be good or poor. In similar studies performed in the past, whenever the
    market actually was good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 85% of
    = (65-61) / 3
    the
    time. On the other hand, whenever the market actually was poor, the market study
    = 0.90824
    incorrectly predicted it would be good 20% of the time. Before the study is performed, it is
    = 1 - 0.90824
    = 0.09176
    believed there is a 70% chance the market will be good. When Market Researchers, Inc.
    = 9.176%
    performs the study for this product, the results predict the market will be good. Given the
    results of this study, what is the probability that the market actually will be good?

    Standard Normal Table

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