App H

Appendix H.
Risk Analysis
Offshore Pipeline Spill Volume Estimate
Platform Irene to Beach
Release at Shoreline Release at Pipeline Midpoint
Description Units Irene to Shore - Irene to Shore - Irene to Shore - Irene to Shore -
Current Proposed Current Proposed
Operations Operations Operations Operations
Q Flow rate of shipping pump B/D 57000 90000 57000 90000

t Time to shut down pump and close valve min 11 11 11 11
% Oil cut (percent water) % 87.7 60 87.7 60
Vpump Discharge volume from time to shut down BBL 382 413 382 413
PD Design pipeline pressure (PSV set point) psi 1300 1300 1300 1300
D ID Nominal inside diameter in 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75
DOD Nominal outside diameter in 20 20 20 20
D ID Nominal inside diameter ft 1.563 1.563 1.563 1.563
DOD Nominal outside diameter ft 1.667 1.667 1.667 1.667
s Hoop stress psi 40300 40300 40300 40300
E Young's modulus 30000000 30000000 30000000 30000000
DP Inside diameter during pumping ft 1.565 1.565 1.565 1.565
API API gravity 16 16 16 16
SG Specific Gravity 0.959 0.959 0.959 0.959
ROs Static density of oil lb/ft3 59.862 59.862 59.862 59.862
DRO Difference in oil density due to compressibility from GPSA lb/ft3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
data book
ROd Dynamic density of oil lb/ft3 59.96 59.96 59.96 59.96
L Pipeline length ft 53328 53328 26664 26664
VRO Discharge volume from density change BBL 27 18 13 9
VD Discharge volume from diameter change BBL 43 29 21 15
L1 Length above water line on inlet end ft 395 395 395 395
L2 Length above water line on discharge end ft 315 315 315 315
VH Discharge volume from hydrostatic head BBL 213 146 213 146
Discharge volume from perculation due to density
VP difference between oil and sea water BBL 2248 7324 1124 3662
V2 Volume of oil calculated to leak from a BBL 2913 7929 1754 4244
rupture of a subsea pipeline
Notes: Assumes 100% of oil in pipeline volume lost due to hydrostatic pressure and buoyancy effects.
Worst case pipeline spill assumed to be located near shore (at highest elevation point of offshore pipeline)
Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 1

Platform Irene Vessel and Pipeline Release Volumes Estimate
Current Proposed
Variable Description Units Operations Project
Percent Oil 12.3 40
Vessel V-140
D Diameter ft 8.0 8.0
L Length ft 17.0 17.0
h1 Top of oil layer ft 8.0 8.0
h2 Bottom of oil layer ft 4.0 4.0
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
V Volume of oil BBL 9.4 30.5
Vessel V-150
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Vessel V-100
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Vessel V-110
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Vessel V-120
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Vessel V-130

Current Proposed
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Vessel V-910
% Oil cut % 75.0 75.0
Vessel T-530/540
% Oil cut % 75.0 75.0
Vessel V-160
% Oil cut % 12.3 40.0
Piping Volume of oil BBL 17.1 28.5

V1 Volume of oil BBL 188.4 313.1
discharged from
vessels and piping
Diesel Storage Volume of Diesel BBL 238.0 238.0
VT Volume of oil and BBL 426.4 551.1
Diesel discharged
from vessels and
piping

Current Proposed
V vessel Largest Vessel BBL 84.0 84.0
Release Volume
Calculations and equipment based on Torch OSCP, October, 2000. Oil cut percentage correcte
for most recently available data (to 11.9% from 20%)

Tranquillon Ridge Project
Well Blowout Spill Volumes
Case Platform Irene (bbls/day)

Current Tranquillon
a
Operations Ridgeb
Oil discharge rate of highest capacity flowing well 0 4,500
a. None of the current wells at Platform Irene are flowing without artifical lift.
b. Tranquillon Ridge wells are expected to flow without artifical lift for about five years.

MMS Oil Spill Risk Calculations: Current Operations
US OCS Spill Historical Spill Data
Median Spill Size Spill Rate

US OCS Spills Number of Spills (bbls) (spills per 109 bbls)
Spills Between 1 and 50 bbls
Platforms 154 25 11.1
Pipelines 457 25 33.2
Spills Greater Than 50 bbls
Platforms 27 159 1.9
Pipelines 80 159 5.8
Source: Comparative Occurrence Rate for Offshore Oil Spills, Anderson and La Belle, MMS.
Source: Delineation Drilling Activities in Federal Water Offshore Santa Barbara County, California, Draft Environemtnal Impact Statement, MMS, 2001-046
Spills greater than 50 bbls estimated based on MMS, (2001) rate calculated from Table 5.1-1 Appendix 5.1 (50-999 bbls), rate of 0.15 spills/19 billion barrels
Assumed split between platforms and pipelines equal to 1 to 3 as per Anderson et al (25% platforms, 75% pipelines)
Spills between 1 and 50 bbls ratioed up from >50 bbl as per table 5.1.3.1-1 (for Pacific Region only) (47 total spills > 1 bbls, 40 in the 1-50 bbls range)
for a ratio of 40/7 small spills to larger spills
Mean spill size estimated from 159 bbls for 50 - 999 bbls range (as per MMS page 5-18) and mean size for 1 - 49 bbls range of assumed 25 bbls
MMS Calculation of Spill Probabilities for Platform Irene and Irene Pipeline with Pt. Pedernales Production Only
Duration of Total Estimated Number Probability of Zero Probability of One

Spill Rate Total Oil Production Oil Production of Spills During the Spills Occurring or More Spills
9
Location (spills per 10 bbls) (109 bbls) (years) Duration (P(0)) Occurring Rate/yr
Platform Irene 11.1 0.0073 10 0.0808 92.2% 7.8% 8.1E-03
Irene Pipeline 33.2 0.0073 10 0.2425 78.5% 21.5% 2.4E-02
Total 10 0.3233 72.4% 27.6% 3.2E-02
Platform Irene 1.9 0.0073 10 0.0141 98.6% 1.4% 1.4E-03
Irene Pipeline 5.8 0.0073 10 0.0424 95.8% 4.2% 4.2E-03
Total 10 0.0566 94.5% 5.5% 5.7E-03
Notes:
estimated average rate of oil production over remaining life 2000 bpd 7300000 bbl
Duration of production is from the beginning of 2007 through 2017 as per SLC information
Estimated number of spills during the duration=spill rate*total oil production.
Probability(P)=e^-number of spills during duration
The probability of one or more spills=1-P
Calculation of Spill Probabilities for Platform Irene & Pipeline with Pt. Pedernales and Tranquillon Ridge Production
Duration of Total Estimated Number Probability of Zero Probability of One
Spill Rate Total Oil Production Oil Production of Spills During the Spills Occurring or More Spills
9 9
Location (spills per 10 bbls) (10 bbls) (years) Duration (P(0)) Occurring Rate/yr
Platform Irene 11.1 0.2081 30 2.3034 10.0% 90.0% 7.7E-02
Irene Pipeline 33.2 0.2081 30 6.9102 0.1% 99.9% 2.3E-01
Total 30 9.2136 0.0% 100.0% 3.1E-01
Platform Irene 1.9 0.2081 30 0.4031 66.8% 33.2% 1.3E-02
Irene Pipeline 5.8 0.2081 30 1.2093 29.8% 70.2% 4.0E-02
Total 30 1.6124 19.9% 80.1% 5.4E-02
Notes:
estimated average rate of oil production over remaining life 19000 bpd 208050000
Duration of production is from 2007 through 2037 project production 18264.84
Estimated number of spills during the duration=spill rate*total oil production. Irene production 666.6667
Probability(P)=e^-number of spills during duration total production 18931.51
The probability of one or more spills=1-P assume 19,000

Tranquillon Ridge Risk Analysis Spreadsheets
Scenarios with Potential to Impact Public Only
Impact Distances
LOGP Facility Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities
Base Event Wind Wind

Frequency, Cond. Stab Direction Scenario
Scenario Type Units Wind Distance, ft Width, ft Distance, ft Width, ft /yr Prob. Prob. Prob. Frequency
Crude tank fire Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 650 885 4.00E-05 0.05 1.00 1.00 2.00E-06
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 318 32 740 115 2.00E-05 0.50 0.51 0.15 7.65E-07
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 318 32 740 115 2.00E-05 0.50 0.51 0.85 4.34E-06
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 705 71 1640 120 2.00E-05 0.50 0.49 0.15 7.35E-07
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 705 71 1640 120 2.00E-05 0.50 0.49 0.85 4.17E-06
LPG/NGL Vessel BLEVE Thermal 80 kJ/m2 fat estimated, 40 kJ/m2 injury 1635 2240 8.00E-07 1.00 1.00 1.00 8.00E-07
LPG/NGL Vessel Explosion Explosion 3 psi fatality estimated, 0.5 psi injury 470 1880 8.00E-07 0.25 1.00 1.00 2.00E-07
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1032 103 2400 1900 2.00E-05 0.50 0.51 0.15 7.65E-07
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1032 103 2400 1900 2.00E-05 0.50 0.51 0.85 4.34E-06
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1075 108 2500 2000 2.00E-05 0.50 0.49 0.15 7.35E-07
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1075 108 2500 2000 2.00E-05 0.50 0.49 0.85 4.17E-06
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 460 1800 4.04E-07 0.25 1.00 1.00 1.53E-05
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 593 59 1380 980 4.04E-07 0.50 0.51 0.15 2.35E-06
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 593 59 1380 980 4.04E-07 0.50 0.51 0.85 1.33E-05
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 538 54 1250 980 4.04E-07 0.50 0.49 0.15 2.26E-06
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 538 54 1250 980 4.04E-07 0.50 0.49 0.85 1.28E-05
Impact Distances
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between Valve Station 9 and LOGP closest segments Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Scenario Type Units Wind Distance, ft Width, ft Distance, ft Width, ft /mile-yr Prob. Prob. Prob. Frequency
Irene/LOGP 8" Pipeline
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 49 289 4.34E-04 0.25 1.00 1.00 1.03E-04
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 75 92 4.34E-04 0.25 1.00 1.00 1.03E-04
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 172 88 461 159 4.34E-04 0.50 0.51 0.27 2.83E-05
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 172 88 461 159 4.34E-04 0.50 0.51 0.73 7.66E-05
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 112 34 246 58 4.34E-04 0.50 0.49 1.00 1.01E-04
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 400 30 1060 49 4.34E-04 0.50 0.51 1.00 1.05E-04
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 89 23 135 36 4.34E-04 0.50 0.49 1.00 1.01E-04
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 125 751 2.13E-04 0.25 1.00 1.00 5.05E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 217 259 2.13E-04 0.25 1.00 1.00 5.05E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 780 355 2033 660 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 0.27 1.39E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 780 355 2033 660 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 0.73 3.76E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 448 137 974 236 2.13E-04 0.50 0.49 1.00 4.94E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1066 92 2477 128 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 0.27 1.39E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1066 92 2477 128 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 0.73 3.76E-05
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 262 79 407 112 2.13E-04 0.50 0.49 1.00 4.94E-05
Segment length 5000 feet
Impact Distances
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between VS8 plus VS9 and LOGP farthest segments Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1066 92 2477 128 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 1.00 1.34E-04

Impact Distances
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Near Valve Station 7 and Valve Station 8 Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Impact Distances
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Remaining Segments Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 172 88 461 159 4.34E-04 0.50 0.51 1.00 8.90E-04
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 780 355 2033 660 2.13E-04 0.50 0.51 1.00 4.37E-04
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: rural areas Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Torch Sales Gas 12" Pipeline
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 126 138 1.51E-04 0.25 1.00 1.00 2.46E-04
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 335 52 600 85 1.51E-04 0.50 0.51 1.00 2.51E-04
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 167 16 259 23 1.51E-04 0.50 0.49 1.00 2.41E-04
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 771 791 7.43E-05 0.25 1.00 1.00 1.21E-04
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1761 518 3050 758 7.43E-05 0.50 0.51 1.00 1.24E-04
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 928 154 1450 220 7.43E-05 0.50 0.49 1.00 1.19E-04
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: along Highway 1/135 Fatality Injury Conditional Probabilities

Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 126 138 1.51E-04 0.25 1.00 0.25 8.92E-06
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 335 52 600 85 1.51E-04 0.50 0.51 0.25 9.10E-06
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 167 16 259 23 1.51E-04 0.50 0.49 0.25 8.74E-06
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 771 791 7.43E-05 0.25 1.00 0.25 4.39E-06
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1761 518 3050 758 7.43E-05 0.50 0.51 0.25 4.48E-06
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 928 154 1450 220 7.43E-05 0.50 0.49 0.25 4.31E-06
Conditional Prob based on CCPS, 50% of releases produce vapor cloud, 25% produce explosion, 25% immediate ignition. Toxic impacts assumed to conservatively be equal to vapor cloud effects.
Fatality Probabilities: 10% at 10 kw/m2 for thermal, 30% within LFL, explosion 50% at 3 psi (assumes 50% of persons indoors), 10% fatalities at ERPG-3 for toxic
Injury Probabilities: 10% at 5 kw/m2 for thermal, 50% within 1/2 LFL, 10% at 0.5 psi and 10% at ERPG-2
Wind Occurrence Based on 1993 SEIR: 50.5% D Stability, 49.5% F stability.
LOGP Harris Grade direction prob. based on 15% of time wind blowing from the NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE (HS&P met data 1988/89). Remaining 85% of time wind blows towards on rural areas.
Valve 9 to LOGP pipeline urban wind direction prob. based on fraction of time wind is blowing from the NW, NNW, N, NNE. Remaining time wind blows release towards rural only areas.
Valve 8 to Valve 9 pipeline urban wind direction prob. based on NW, WNW, W, WSW
Wind direction prob. for scenarios that do not reach urban areas assigned a value of 1.0 as all other areas are rural in all directions.
Zone rural and Harris Grade or urban fractions based on geometry of ellipses and circles with center area excluded (due to within facility boundaries for LOGP scenarios)
For vapor cloud explosions/fire (VCE) and Toxic impacts, width is equal to 1/2 width of ellipse with ellipse length equal to downwind distance from release point.
For thermal and explosion, downwind distance equal to circle radius with center at release point
For impact distances where numbers are not available, estimated impact distances assumed the following:
Assumed ratios of length to width for LFL = 0.1
Assumed ratio of 1/2 LFL to LFL = 0.43
Assumed thermal 10 kw/m2 to 5 kw/m2 ratio = 0.73
Assumed 0.5 psi to 3 psi ratio = 0.25
Distance from LOGP to Harris Grade Road (facility boundary), ft 700 feet
Distance between LOGP and Vandenberg Village, feet 4600 feet
Distance from Valve 9 - LOGP pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 1800 feet
Distance from Valve 8 - Valve 9 pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 2600 feet
Distance from Valve 7 - Valve 8 pipeline segment to Penitentiary Barracks = 2600 feet
Rural population = 1 persons/sq mile
Harris Grade population= 3.48 persons/sq mile (1.74 cars/mile, 2 persons per car)
Rte 1/135 population 24.24 persons/sq mile (12.12 cars/mile, 2 persons per car)
Urban population = 7000 persons/sq mile
Number of Irene-LOGP gas pigging operations per year 12
Number of LGP trips per year 152
Facility Life, years 22
LOGP cumulative scenario frequency, per year 6.90E-05
LOGP probability, percent 0.15
Ignition probability per car 0.06
Ignition sources of cars based on cars per mile with above probability. Ignition probability included in Event Conditional probability
Sales gas, due to being mostly methane, was assumed to not be able to create an explosion due to lack of confinement.

LOGP Facility Fatality Injury

Zone: Zone:
Zone: Harris Zone: Harris Fat. Zone Inj. Zone
Rural Grade Rural Grade Persons Persons Fatality Injury
Scenario Type Units Wind Fraction Fraction Fraction Fraction Affected Affected Prob. Prob. Fatalities Injuries
Crude tank fire Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.06 0.000 0.045 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.005
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.000 0.000 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.000
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.000
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.000 0.011 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.006
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.000 0.003 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.002
LPG/NGL Vessel BLEVE Thermal 80 kJ/m2 fat estimated, 40 kJ/m2 injury 0.58 0.24 0.60 0.30 0.422 0.937 0.1 0.1 0.042 0.094
LPG/NGL Vessel Explosion Explosion 3 psi fatality estimated, 0.5 psi injury 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.27 0.000 0.608 0.5 0.1 0.000 0.061
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.76 0.003 0.339 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.169
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.28 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.001 0.097 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.049
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.77 0.004 0.378 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.189
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.31 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.001 0.109 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.054
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.26 0.000 0.544 0.5 0.1 0.000 0.054
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.000 0.065 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.033
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.000 0.019 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.009
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.000 0.051 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.025
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.000 0.015 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.007
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between Valve Station 9 and LOGP closest segments Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Rural Urban Rural Urban Persons Persons Fatality Injury
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.009 0.5 0.1 0.000 0.001
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.001 0.001 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.002 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.001 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.001
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.002 0.064 0.5 0.1 0.001 0.006
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.005 0.008 0.1 0.1 0.001 0.001
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 0.94 0.06 0.008 16.9 0.1 0.1 0.001 1.69
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.008 0.038 0.1 0.1 0.001 0.004
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.002 0.006 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.001
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 0.78 0.22 0.003 13.9 0.3 0.5 0.001 6.931
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.003 0.009 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.004
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.001 0.001 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.001
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between VS8 plus VS9 and LOGP farthest segments Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.003 0.009 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.004

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Near Valve Station 7 and Valve Station 8 Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Remaining Segments Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.002 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.008 0.038 0.1 0.1 0.001 0.004
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: rural areas Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.002 0.002 0.1 0.1 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.001 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.001
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.3 0.5 0.000 0.000
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.067 0.071 0.1 0.1 0.007 0.007
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.026 0.065 0.3 0.5 0.008 0.033
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.004 0.009 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.004
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: along Highway 1/135 Fatality Injury
Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.043 0.002 0.1 0.1 0.004 0.000
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.012 0.001 0.3 0.5 0.004 0.001
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.002 0.000 0.3 0.5 0.001 0.000
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.624 0.071 0.1 0.1 0.162 0.007
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.623 0.065 0.3 0.5 0.187 0.033
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.098 0.009 0.3 0.5 0.029 0.004
Conditional Prob based on CCPS, 50% of releases produce vapor cloud, 25% produce explosion, 25% immediate ignition. Toxic i
Fatality Probabilities: 10% at 10 kw/m2 for thermal, 30% within LFL, explosion 50% at 3 psi (assumes 50% of persons indoors), 10
LOGP Harris Grade direction prob. based on 15% of time wind blowing from the NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE (HS&P met data 198
Valve 9 to LOGP pipeline urban wind direction prob. based on fraction of time wind is blowing from the NW, NNW, N, NNE. Remai
Wind direction prob. for scenarios that do not reach urban areas assigned a value of 1.0 as all other areas are rural in all directions
Zone rural and Harris Grade or urban fractions based on geometry of ellipses and circles with center area excluded (due to within f
For vapor cloud explosions/fire (VCE) and Toxic impacts, width is equal to 1/2 width of ellipse with ellipse length equal to downwin
Distance from LOGP to Harris Grade Road (facility boundary), ft 700
Distance between LOGP and Vandenberg Village, feet 4600
Distance from Valve 9 - LOGP pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 1800
Distance from Valve 8 - Valve 9 pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 2600
Distance from Valve 7 - Valve 8 pipeline segment to Penitentiary Barracks = 2600

LOGP Facility
Scenario Type Units Wind Source

1985 EIR, Table 4-13 tank rupture 66,000 barrel spill into dike, Fig 2-15 divided by 4 tanks.
Crude tank fire Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury Event cond. Prob based on OPS spills at pump station with ignition
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-15, Fig 2-14
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-15, Fig 2-14
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-15, Fig 2-14
Gas/oil separator vessel rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-15, Fig 2-14
LPG/NGL Vessel BLEVE Thermal 80 kJ/m2 fat estimated, 40 kJ/m2 injury 1996 Addendum
LPG/NGL Vessel Explosion Explosion 3 psi fatality estimated, 0.5 psi injury 1996 Addendum
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-15, 525 bbl propane tank, Fig 2-14
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-15, 525 bbl propane tank, Fig 2-14
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-15, 525 bbl propane tank, Fig 2-14
LPG/NGL Tank rupture/release, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-15, 525 bbl propane tank, Fig 2-14
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 1985 EIR, Table 4-17 9,000 gallon rupture, Fig 2-24, base release rate per loading
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-18 propane release #4, Fig 2-24 base release rate per loading
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL D 1985 EIR, table 4-18 propane release #4, Fig 2-24 base release rate per loading
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards Harris Grade VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-18 propane release #4, Fig 2-24 base release rate per loading
LPG/NGL tank truck rupture, towards rural areas VCE LFL estimated, 1/2 LFL F 1985 EIR, table 4-18 propane release #4, Fig 2-24 base release rate per loading
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between Valve Station 9 and LOGP closest segments

Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.30 scenario 2c, base freq. is per mile year
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.28 scenario 2c
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 2c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 2c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 2c
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 2c
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 2c
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Explosion 3 psi fatality, 0.5 psi injury 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.30 scenario 1c
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.28 scenario 1c
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 1c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 1c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 1c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 1c
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig, non-urban VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 1c
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 1c
IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Between VS8 plus VS9 and LOGP farthest segments

Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25 table 5.27 scenario 1c

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Near Valve Station 7 and Valve Station 8

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Remaining Segments

Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 2c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline leak 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 D 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 2c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Gas pipeline rupture, 6 mmscfd, 600 psig Toxic ERPG-3, ERPG-2 F 1993 SEIR, table 5.25, table 5.26 scenario 1c, updated to 8,000 ppm
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: rural areas

Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: along Highway 1/135

Gas pipeline leak 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline leak 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig Thermal 10 kw/m2 fat, 5 kw/m2 injury Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL F Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Gas pipeline rupture, 800 psig VCE LFL, 1/2 LFL D Adapted from PANGL Pipeline consequence modeling, 4/99
Conditional Prob based on CCPS, 50% of releases produce vapor cloud, 25% produce explosion, 25% immediate ignition. Toxic i
Fatality Probabilities: 10% at 10 kw/m2 for thermal, 30% within LFL, explosion 50% at 3 psi (assumes 50% of persons indoors), 10
LOGP Harris Grade direction prob. based on 15% of time wind blowing from the NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE (HS&P met data 198
Valve 9 to LOGP pipeline urban wind direction prob. based on fraction of time wind is blowing from the NW, NNW, N, NNE. Remai
Wind direction prob. for scenarios that do not reach urban areas assigned a value of 1.0 as all other areas are rural in all directions
Zone rural and Harris Grade or urban fractions based on geometry of ellipses and circles with center area excluded (due to within f
For vapor cloud explosions/fire (VCE) and Toxic impacts, width is equal to 1/2 width of ellipse with ellipse length equal to downwin
Distance from LOGP to Harris Grade Road (facility boundary), ft 700
Distance between LOGP and Vandenberg Village, feet 4600
Distance from Valve 9 - LOGP pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 1800
Distance from Valve 8 - Valve 9 pipeline segment to Vandenberg Village = 2600
Distance from Valve 7 - Valve 8 pipeline segment to Penitentiary Barracks = 2600

Irene and Offshore Pipeline Failure Rate Calculations: Current Operations Pt. Pedernales Production Only
Summary of Frequency Results

Lifetime 10 years
Average oil production, bpd 2000 bpd over lifetime
Platform Irene Summary

Scenario Freq, per year Lifetime Prob, %
Small Spills
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - small 1.47E-08 0.0
Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - small 3.74E-06 0.0
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - small 2.38E-04 0.2
Irene - Diesel Fuel Loading - Small spill to Ocean 2.90E-04 0.3
Cumulative Small Spills 5.33E-04 0.5
Large Spills
Irene - Blowouts NA NA
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - large 1.25E-08 0.0
Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - large 9.60E-05 0.1
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - large 2.80E-05 0.0
Irene - External impact 1.00E-05 0.0
Cumulative Large Spills 1.34E-04 0.1
Cumulative All Spills 6.67E-04 0.7
Offshore Emulsion Pipeline Summary

Leaks
1985 EIR table 2-2, leaks 4.41E-03 4.3
CSFM for this pipeline, leak 3.11E-03 3.1
Ruptures
1985 EIR table 2-2, ruptures 4.90E-04 0.5
CSFM for this pipeline, rupture 6.82E-04 0.7
OPS all crude lines, spills > 50 bbl 9.17E-03 8.8
MMS pipeline throughput method, 1,000 bbl spill, per year 9.86E-04 1.0
Offshore Emulsion Pipeline and Platform Summary

Leaks and Small Spills 4.94E-03 4.8
Ruptures and Large Spills 6.24E-04 0.6
Any Spill Size 5.57E-03 5.4
Detailed Calculations
Platform Irene
Description Base rate Units Multiplyer Rate Ref
Irene - Blowouts 0.00E+00
1985 EIR, figure 2-2, 78% wellhead or drill floor (HLID,
1992), assumes wells drilled = 0, multiplyer units of
Blowout during drilling 3.90E-03 per well drilled 0 0.00E+00 wells/year
1985 EIR, figure 2-2, 22% subsea (as per HLID, 1992),
Blowout during drilling: below platform 1.10E-03 per well drilled 0 0.00E+00 assumes wells drilled = 0, multiplyer units of wells/year
HLID, 1992, 93% wellhead or drill floor assumes
Blowout during well workover 5.20E-05 per well 0 0.00E+00 workoverers every 7 years
HLID, 1992, 9% subsea, assumes workoverers every 7
Blowout during well workover: below platform 5.14E-06 per well 0 0.00E+00 years
1992), Assumes no production wells under reserviour
Blowout during production 2.57E-04 per year 0 0.00E+00 pressure
1985 EIR, figure 2-2, 22% subsea (HLID, 1992), Assumes
Blowout during production: below platform 7.26E-05 per year 0 0.00E+00 no production wells under reserviour pressure
Oil spill conditional probability 7.40E-02 per demand 1 7.40E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-2, for blowouts on platform
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - small 1.47E-08

Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - large 1.25E-08
Number of wellheads 22 number 1 2.20E+01 Current operation
Fittings per well 2 number 1 2.00E+00 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Break of small fitting 3.00E-04 per year 1 3.00E-04 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Failure to close sub surface valve 1.00E-02 per year 1 1.00E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Failure to close surface safety valve 1.00E-03 per year 1 1.00E-03 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Failure of drainage system 1.00E-03 on demand 1 1.00E-03 Estimated, Lees, failure to operate on demand
Hole in 3 diameter pipe 5.26E-06 /m.yr 50 2.63E-04 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
D.Reidel Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-277-1393-6
Leak at 2" or 3" valve 7.88E-05 /valve.yr 5 3.94E-04 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
Assume 90% of leaks are significant but not catastrophic
rupture
Hole in well head 2.63E-06 /m.yr 2 5.26E-06 Treated as a hole in 8" pipe. Significant leak. Risk Analysis
Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority, D.Reidel
Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-277-1393-6
Full bore pipe rupture 2.60E-07 /m.yr 50 1.30E-05 Rupture of pipe. Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond
Public Authority, D.Reidel Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-
277-1393-6
Full bore 2" or 3" valve rupture 8.76E-06 /valve.yr 5 4.38E-05 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
Assume 10% of leaks are catastrophic rupture
Well head rupture 9.00E-08 /m.yr 2 1.80E-07 Treated as a 8" pipe rupture. Rupture of pipe >150 mm
diameter. Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public
Authority, D.Reidel Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-277-1393-
6

Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - small 3.74E-06

Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - large 9.60E-05
Vessel Spontaneous Rupture 3.00E-05 per year 2 6.00E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Vessel Maine impact 8.00E-06 per year 2 1.60E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Vesel Seismic induced rupture 1.00E-05 per year 2 2.00E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Break of small fitting 3.00E-04 per year 10 3.00E-03 See above, number estimated
Hole in 3 diameter pipe 5.26E-06 /m.yr 50 2.63E-04 See above, number estimated
Leak at 2" or 3" valve 7.88E-05 /valve.yr 6 4.73E-04 See above, number estimated
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - small 2.38E-04

Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - large 2.80E-05
Vessel Spontaneous Rupture 1.00E-05 per year 1 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Vessel Maine impact 8.00E-06 per year 1 8.00E-06 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Vesel Seismic induced rupture 1.00E-05 per year 1 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Pump leak or ruture 1.70E-02 per year 2 3.40E-02 HLUD, 1992
Pig launcher improper action/mech defect 1.10E-03 per year 1 1.10E-03 1985 EIR, figure 2-7
Pigging operations per year 183 number 1 183 Project description
Irene - Diesel Fuel Loading - Small spill to Ocean 2.90E-04

Hose failure 1.10E-02 per year 1 1.10E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-9
Loadings per year 1.20E+01 per year 1 1.20E+01 1985 EIR, figure 2-9
Check valve failure 2.20E-03 per demand 1 2.20E-03 CCPS, 1989, Failure to check
Irene - External impact 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Figure 2-10
Total Large Spill Frequency 1.34E-04

Years Between Spills 7462
Platform Life, years 10
Lifetime probability 1.34E-03
Probability 0.1
Total Small Spill Frequency 5.33E-04

Probability 0.5
TOTAL SPILL TO OCEAN FREQUENCY 6.67E-04

Probability 0.7
Combined Platform Irene and Pipeline

Small Spills 4.94E-03
Small Spills Probability 4.8
Large Spills 6.24E-04
Large Spills Probability 0.6
PIPELINE FAILURE RATES Freq/yr Probability

Offshore Emulsion Pipeline - Failure rates, utilize 1985 EIR leak rate 4.41E-03 4.3
1985 EIR table 2-2, leaks 4.28E-04 per mile-year 10.3 4.41E-03 4.3
CSFM for this pipeline, leak 3.02E-04 per mile-year 10.3 3.11E-03 3.1
1985 EIR table 2-2, ruptures 4.76E-05 per mile-year 10.3 4.90E-04 0.5
CSFM for this pipeline, rupture 6.62E-05 per mile-year 10.3 6.82E-04 0.7
OPS all crude lines, spills > 50 bbl 8.90E-04 per mile-year 10.3 9.17E-03 8.8
Offshore Water Return Pipeline - Failure rates, utilize 1985 EIR leak rate 3.60E-03 3.5
CSFM for this pipeline, all products, leak 5.96E-04 per mile-year 10.3 6.14E-03 6.0
CSFM for this pipeline, all products rupture 1.31E-04 per mile-year 10.3 1.35E-03 1.3
MMS pipeline throughput method, 1,000 bbl spill, assumes 10,000 bpd water 4.93E-03 4.8
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline

CSFM Failure rate - ruptures 6.62E-05 per mile-year 12.2 8.08E-04
Seismic activity - rupture 4.15E-06 per mile-year 12.2 5.06E-05
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline Ruptures 8.59E-04 0.9
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline Leaks 3.02E-04 per mile-year 12.2 3.68E-03 3.6
Onshore Gas Pipeline

Leak rate, per pipeline mile-year 4.34E-04 per mile-year 12.2 5.29E-03 5.2
Rupture rate, per pipeline mile-year 2.13E-04 per mile-year 12.2 2.60E-03 2.6
Onshore Water Pipeline

Onshore Water Pipeline Ruptures 1.65E-03 1.6
Onshore Water Pipeline Leaks 5.96E-04 per mile-year 12.2 7.27E-03 7.0
LOGP-Summit Pipeline
Years Life 30 years
Onshore Oil Pipeline Ruptures 4.09E-02 70.7
Onshore Oil Pipeline Leaks 6.71E-03 per mile-year 27.65 1.86E-01 99.6

LOGP FACILITIES
SCADA - failure 1.01E-01 Reference
Phone line failure 2.28E-04 demand 1 2.28E-04 Estimated 8 hours per year down time
Pump shutdown failure 1.00E-04 on demand 1 1.00E-04 Rijnonmd, failure to stop on demand
Actuated valve failure 1.00E-03 on demand 1 1.00E-03 Lees, failure to operate on demand
Pressure Switch 1.00E-04 on demand 1 1.00E-04 Rijnonmd, failure on demand
Reliability and Maintainability in Perspective, 3rd Edition,
D.J. Smith, 1988, Fail to recognise incorrect status on
Operator Restarts system, override SCADA 1.00E-01 on demand 1 1.00E-01 inspection
Other LOGP Freqeuncies taken directly from the 1985 EIR

Irene and Offshore Pipeline Failure Rate Calculations: Proposed Operations, Pt. Ped and Tranquillon Ridge Production
Summary of Frequency Results

Lifetime 30 years
Average oil production, bpd 19000 bpd over lifetime
Platform Irene Summary

Small Spills
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - small 1.47E-08 0.0
Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - small 3.74E-06 0.0
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - small 2.38E-04 0.7
Irene - Diesel Fuel Loading - Small spill to Ocean 2.90E-04 0.9
Cumulative Small Spills 5.33E-04 1.6
Large Spills
Irene - Blowouts 2.78E-03 8.0
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - large 1.25E-08 0.0
Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - large 9.60E-05 0.3
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - large 2.80E-05 0.1
Irene - External impact 1.00E-05 0.0
Cumulative Large Spills 2.91E-03 8.4
Cumulative All Spills 3.44E-03 9.8
Offshore Emulsion Pipeline Summary

Leaks
1985 EIR table 2-2, leaks 4.41E-03 12.4
CSFM for this pipeline, leak 3.11E-03 8.9
Ruptures
1985 EIR table 2-2, ruptures 4.90E-04 1.5
CSFM for this pipeline, rupture 6.82E-04 2.0
OPS all crude lines, spills > 50 bbl 9.17E-03 24.0
Offshore Emulsion Pipeline and Platform

Leaks and Small Spills 4.94E-03 13.8
Ruptures and Large Spills 3.40E-03 9.7
Any Spill Size 8.34E-03 22.1
Detailed Calculations
Platform Irene
Description Base rate Units Multiplyer Rate Ref
Irene - Blowouts 2.78E-03
1992), assumes wells drilled = 0, multiplyer units of
Blowout during drilling 3.90E-03 per well drilled 2 7.80E-03 wells/year
1985 EIR, figure 2-2, 22% subsea (as per HLID, 1992),
Blowout during drilling: below platform 1.10E-03 per well drilled 2 2.20E-03 assumes wells drilled = 0, multiplyer units of wells/year
HLID, 1992, 93% wellhead or drill floor assumes
Blowout during well workover 5.20E-05 per well 0 0.00E+00 workoverers every 7 years
HLID, 1992, 9% subsea, assumes workoverers every 7
Blowout during well workover: below platform 5.14E-06 per well 0 0.00E+00 years
1992), Assumes no production wells under reserviour
Blowout during production 2.57E-04 per year 0 0.00E+00 pressure
1985 EIR, figure 2-2, 22% subsea (HLID, 1992), Assumes

Blowout during production: below platform 7.26E-05 per year 0 0.00E+00 no production wells under reserviour pressure
Oil spill conditional probability 7.40E-02 per demand 1 7.40E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-2, for blowouts on platform
Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - small 1.47E-08

Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - large 1.25E-08
Number of wellheads 22 number 1 2.20E+01 Current operation
Fittings per well 2 number 1 2.00E+00 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Break of small fitting 3.00E-04 per year 1 3.00E-04 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Failure to close sub surface valve 1.00E-02 per year 1 1.00E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Failure to close surface safety valve 1.00E-03 per year 1 1.00E-03 1985 EIR, figure 2-3
Hole in 3 diameter pipe 5.26E-06 /m.yr 50 2.63E-04 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
Leak at 2" or 3" valve 7.88E-05 /valve.yr 5 3.94E-04 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
Assume 90% of leaks are significant but not catastrophic
rupture
Hole in well head 2.63E-06 /m.yr 2 5.26E-06 Treated as a hole in 8" pipe. Significant leak. Risk Analysis
Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority, D.Reidel
Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-277-1393-6
Full bore pipe rupture 2.60E-07 /m.yr 50 1.30E-05 Rupture of pipe. Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond
Public Authority, D.Reidel Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-
277-1393-6
Full bore 2" or 3" valve rupture 8.76E-06 /valve.yr 5 4.38E-05 Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority,
Assume 10% of leaks are catastrophic rupture
Well head rupture 9.00E-08 /m.yr 2 1.80E-07 Treated as a 8" pipe rupture. Rupture of pipe >150 mm
diameter. Risk Analysis Report to the Rijnmond Public
Authority, D.Reidel Publishing Co., 1981 ISBN 90-277-1393-
6

Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - small 3.74E-06

Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - large 9.60E-05
Vessel Spontaneous Rupture 3.00E-05 per year 2 6.00E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Vessel Maine impact 8.00E-06 per year 2 1.60E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Vesel Seismic induced rupture 1.00E-05 per year 2 2.00E-05 1985 EIR, gross separators only
Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - small 2.38E-04

Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - large 2.80E-05
Vessel Spontaneous Rupture 1.00E-05 per year 1 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Vessel Maine impact 8.00E-06 per year 1 8.00E-06 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Vesel Seismic induced rupture 1.00E-05 per year 1 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Shipping tank
Pump leak or ruture 1.70E-02 per year 2 3.40E-02 HLUD, 1992
Pig launcher improper action/mech defect 1.10E-03 per year 1 1.10E-03 1985 EIR, figure 2-7
Pigging operations per year 183 number 1 183 Project description
Irene - Diesel Fuel Loading - Small spill to Ocean 2.90E-04

Hose failure 1.10E-02 per year 1 1.10E-02 1985 EIR, figure 2-9
Loadings per year 1.20E+01 per year 1 1.20E+01 1985 EIR, figure 2-9
Check valve failure 2.20E-03 per demand 1 2.20E-03 CCPS, 1989, Failure to check
Irene - External impact 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Figure 2-10
Total Large Spill Frequency 2.91E-03

Probability 8.4
Total Small Spill Frequency 5.33E-04

Probability 1.6
TOTAL SPILL TO OCEAN FREQUENCY 3.44E-03

Probability 9.8
Combined Platform Irene and Pipeline

Small Spills 4.94E-03 13.8
Large Spills 3.40E-03 9.7
PIPELINE FAILURE RATES Freq/yr Probability

Offshore Emulsion Pipeline - Failure rates, utilize 1985 EIR leak rate 4.41E-03 12.4
CSFM for this pipeline, leak 3.02E-04 per mile-year 10.3 3.11E-03 8.9
CSFM for this pipeline, rupture 6.62E-05 per mile-year 10.3 6.82E-04 2.0
Offshore Water Return Pipeline - Failure rates, utilize 1985 EIR leak rate 3.60E-03 10.2
CSFM for this pipeline, all products, leak 5.96E-04 per mile-year 10.3 6.14E-03 16.8
CSFM for this pipeline, all products rupture 1.31E-04 per mile-year 10.3 1.35E-03 4.0
MMS pipeline throughput method, 1,000 bbl spill, assumes 10,000 bpd water 4.93E-03 13.7
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline total ruptures 8.59E-04 2.5

CSFM Failure rate - ruptures 6.62E-05 per mile-year 12.2 8.08E-04 2.4
Seismic activity - rupture 4.15E-06 per mile-year 12.2 5.06E-05 0.2
Valve Station 2 Pump Failure - leak 3.10E-01 per year 100.0
Valve Station 2 Pump Failure - rupture 3.10E-03 per year 0.9
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline Leaks 3.02E-04 per mile-year 12.2 3.68E-03 10.5
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline Ruptures 3.96E-03 11.2
Onshore Emulsion Pipeline Leaks 3.14E-01 100.0
Onshore Gas Pipeline

Leak rate, per pipeline mile-year 4.34E-04 per mile-year 12.2 5.29E-03 14.7
Rupture rate, per pipeline mile-year 2.13E-04 per mile-year 12.2 2.60E-03 7.5
Onshore Water Pipeline

LOGP-Summit Pipeline
Years Life 30 years

LOGP FACILITIES
SCADA - failure 1.01E-01
Phone line failure 2.28E-04 demand 1 2.28E-04 Estimated 8 hours per year down time
Pump shutdown failure 1.00E-04 on demand 1 1.00E-04 Rijnonmd, failure to stop on demand
Actuated valve failure 1.00E-03 on demand 1 1.00E-03 Lees, failure to operate on demand
Pressure Switch 1.00E-04 on demand 1 1.00E-04 Rijnonmd, failure on demand
Reliability and Maintainability in Perspective, 3rd Edition,
D.J. Smith, 1988, Fail to recognise incorrect status on
Operator Restarts system, override SCADA 1.00E-01 on demand 1 1.00E-01 inspection

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Appendix H.

Q Flow rate of shipping pump B/D 57000 90000 57000 90000

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 1

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 2

Piping Volume of oil BBL 17.1 28.5

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 3

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 4

Case Platform Irene (bbls/day)

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 5

Median Spill Size Spill Rate

Duration of Total Estimated Number Probability of Zero Probability of One

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 6

Base Event Wind Wind

Base Event Wind Wind

Base Event Wind Wind

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 7

Base Event Wind Wind

Base Event Wind Wind

Base Event Wind Wind

Base Event Wind Wind

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 9

LOGP Facility Fatality Injury

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 10

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Remaining Segments Fatality Injury

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: rural areas Fatality Injury

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: along Highway 1/135 Fatality Injury

Fat. Zone Inj. Zone

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 12

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 13

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Near Valve Station 7 and Valve Station 8

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

IRENE/LOGP Pipeline Segment: Remaining Segments

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: rural areas

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Torch Sales Gas Pipeline: along Highway 1/135

Scenario Type Units Wind Source

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 15

Summary of Frequency Results

Platform Irene Summary

Offshore Emulsion Pipeline Summary

Offshore Emulsion Pipeline and Platform Summary

Irene - Wellhead Area Spill to Ocean - small 1.47E-08

Source: ioMosaic 2006 Page 16

Irene - Separator Failure Spill to Ocean - small 3.74E-06

Irene - Pumping and Shipping Spill to Ocean - small 2.38E-04

Irene - Diesel Fuel Loading - Small spill to Ocean 2.90E-04

Irene - External impact 1.00E-05 1985 EIR, Figure 2-10

Total Large Spill Frequency 1.34E-04

Total Small Spill Frequency 5.33E-04

TOTAL SPILL TO OCEAN FREQUENCY 6.67E-04