ARDL :

Dependent Variable: CO2

Method: ARDL
Date: 05/31/16 Time: 17:16
Sample (adjusted): 1974 2014
Included observations: 41 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 4 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): GDP GDP2 E DC TO
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evalulated: 12500
Selected Model: ARDL(2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 1)

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*

CO2(-1) 0.291419 0.123157 2.366240 0.0282

CO2(-2) 0.452791 0.116512 3.886223 0.0009
GDP 20.92293 21.22282 0.985870 0.3360
GDP(-1) -54.46784 26.17731 -2.080727 0.0505
GDP(-2) -32.80884 20.72765 -1.582853 0.1291
GDP2 -0.001624 0.012586 -0.129015 0.8986
GDP2(-1) 0.017756 0.014793 1.200292 0.2441
GDP2(-2) 0.019329 0.011230 1.721128 0.1007
GDP2(-3) 0.016894 0.005261 3.211355 0.0044
E 31.31715 43.10622 0.726511 0.4759
E(-1) 97.44391 54.76878 1.779187 0.0904
E(-2) 48.87146 47.72674 1.023985 0.3181
E(-3) 106.3309 54.91291 1.936356 0.0671
E(-4) -113.2633 39.87300 -2.840600 0.0101
DC 430.3368 167.8759 2.563423 0.0185
DC(-1) -433.0476 188.7335 -2.294492 0.0327
DC(-2) 243.2612 168.9852 1.439542 0.1655
DC(-3) -652.1245 158.2157 -4.121744 0.0005
TO 36.12005 132.5148 0.272574 0.7880
TO(-1) -484.9107 131.3634 -3.691368 0.0014
C -11807.11 6363.972 -1.855305 0.0784

R-squared 0.999273 Mean dependent var 54684.63

Adjusted R-squared 0.998545 S.D. dependent var 34468.36
S.E. of regression 1314.698 Akaike info criterion 17.50715
Sum squared resid 34568607 Schwarz criterion 18.38484
Log likelihood -337.8966 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.82676
F-statistic 1373.736 Durbin-Watson stat 2.146249
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
selection.
Serial correlation LM test:

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.234232 Prob. F(3,17) 0.8713

Obs*R-squared 1.627466 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.6532

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: ARDL
Date: 05/31/16 Time: 17:21
Sample: 1974 2014
Included observations: 41
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

CO2(-1) -0.008134 0.187118 -0.043472 0.9658

CO2(-2) -0.002531 0.169334 -0.014946 0.9882
GDP 6.005010 25.88245 0.232011 0.8193
GDP(-1) -4.486036 29.03135 -0.154524 0.8790
GDP(-2) 0.749050 22.71971 0.032969 0.9741
GDP2 -0.003024 0.015032 -0.201148 0.8430
GDP2(-1) 0.002571 0.016621 0.154696 0.8789
GDP2(-2) -0.000392 0.012105 -0.032342 0.9746
GDP2(-3) -0.000255 0.005690 -0.044740 0.9648
E 0.198519 47.34402 0.004193 0.9967
E(-1) -7.080761 62.94476 -0.112492 0.9118
E(-2) 7.941390 52.03883 0.152605 0.8805
E(-3) -1.721120 59.52221 -0.028916 0.9773
E(-4) 1.626139 44.02586 0.036936 0.9710
DC -11.18589 179.2716 -0.062396 0.9510
DC(-1) -6.036222 208.5227 -0.028948 0.9772
DC(-2) -2.791023 181.2730 -0.015397 0.9879
DC(-3) 16.08785 173.0771 0.092952 0.9270
TO -30.21486 152.5420 -0.198076 0.8453
TO(-1) -13.46588 146.9022 -0.091666 0.9280
C 902.2533 7329.670 0.123096 0.9035
RESID(-1) -0.097320 0.341548 -0.284936 0.7791
RESID(-2) -0.194728 0.318666 -0.611073 0.5492
RESID(-3) -0.123077 0.324369 -0.379434 0.7091

R-squared 0.039694 Mean dependent var -3.02E-12

Adjusted R-squared -1.259543 S.D. dependent var 929.6317
S.E. of regression 1397.402 Akaike info criterion 17.61299
Sum squared resid 33196430 Schwarz criterion 18.61606
Log likelihood -337.0663 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.97825
F-statistic 0.030552 Durbin-Watson stat 2.066350
Prob(F-statistic) 1.000000
Heteroskedacitisity test

Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey

F-statistic 0.982025 Prob. F(20,20) 0.5160

Obs*R-squared 20.31409 Prob. Chi-Square(20) 0.4384
Scaled explained SS 6.016236 Prob. Chi-Square(20) 0.9989

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/31/16 Time: 17:27
Sample: 1974 2014
Included observations: 41

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -3470898. 6548704. -0.530013 0.6019

CO2(-1) -219.5539 126.7318 -1.732429 0.0986
CO2(-2) 130.6316 119.8938 1.089561 0.2889
GDP 38097.99 21838.87 1.744504 0.0964
GDP(-1) -27371.13 26937.18 -1.016110 0.3217
GDP(-2) -16452.51 21329.33 -0.771356 0.4495
GDP2 -20.32203 12.95156 -1.569080 0.1323
GDP2(-1) 15.93430 15.22207 1.046789 0.3077
GDP2(-2) 4.892397 11.55639 0.423350 0.6766
GDP2(-3) 5.643040 5.413327 1.042435 0.3096
E 18819.23 44357.50 0.424263 0.6759
E(-1) 48168.24 56358.60 0.854674 0.4029
E(-2) -33966.98 49112.14 -0.691621 0.4971
E(-3) 11790.50 56506.91 0.208656 0.8368
E(-4) -828.8874 41030.43 -0.020202 0.9841
DC -162924.2 172748.9 -0.943127 0.3569
DC(-1) 201832.0 194212.1 1.039235 0.3111
DC(-2) -201313.5 173890.4 -1.157703 0.2606
DC(-3) 51533.87 162808.3 0.316531 0.7549
TO -261088.1 136361.4 -1.914677 0.0699
TO(-1) 96078.48 135176.6 0.710763 0.4854

R-squared 0.495465 Mean dependent var 843136.8

Adjusted R-squared -0.009069 S.D. dependent var 1346767.
S.E. of regression 1352861. Akaike info criterion 31.37989
Sum squared resid 3.66E+13 Schwarz criterion 32.25757
Log likelihood -622.2878 Hannan-Quinn criter. 31.69950
F-statistic 0.982025 Durbin-Watson stat 2.497774
Prob(F-statistic) 0.515975

Normality test:
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1974 2014
8 Observations 41

Mean -3.02e-12
6 Median -53.65096
Maximum 2615.257
Minimum -2007.681
Std. Dev. 929.6317
4
Skewness 0.391333
Kurtosis 3.489232
2
Jarque-Bera 1.455350
Probability 0.483031
0
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

Stability test:
BOUND TESTING

ARDL Bounds Test

Date: 06/01/16 Time: 15:29
Sample: 1974 2014
Included observations: 41
Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist

Test Statistic Value k

F-statistic 20.41377 5

Critical Value Bounds

Significance I0 Bound I1 Bound

10% 2.26 3.35

5% 2.62 3.79
2.5% 2.96 4.18
1% 3.41 4.68

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: D(CO2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/16 Time: 15:29
Sample: 1974 2014
Included observations: 41

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(CO2(-1)) -0.452791 0.116512 -3.886223 0.0009

D(GDP) 20.92293 21.22282 0.985870 0.3360
D(GDP(-1)) 32.80884 20.72765 1.582853 0.1291
D(GDP2) -0.001624 0.012586 -0.129015 0.8986
D(GDP2(-1)) -0.036223 0.011376 -3.184223 0.0047
D(GDP2(-2)) -0.016894 0.005261 -3.211355 0.0044
D(E) 31.31715 43.10622 0.726511 0.4759
D(E(-1)) -41.93913 45.06595 -0.930617 0.3631
 D(E(-2)) 6.932327 45.01453 0.154002 0.8792
D(E(-3)) 113.2633 39.87300 2.840600 0.0101
D(DC) 430.3368 167.8759 2.563423 0.0185
D(DC(-1)) 408.8633 133.7525 3.056864 0.0062
D(DC(-2)) 652.1245 158.2157 4.121744 0.0005
D(TO) 36.12005 132.5148 0.272574 0.7880
C -11807.11 6363.972 -1.855305 0.0784
GDP(-1) -66.35375 13.44964 -4.933497 0.0001
GDP2(-1) 0.052354 0.008839 5.923233 0.0000
E(-1) 170.7002 27.05745 6.308805 0.0000
DC(-1) -411.5741 157.9614 -2.605536 0.0169
TO(-1) -448.7906 156.7305 -2.863454 0.0096
CO2(-1) -0.255791 0.068337 -3.743066 0.0013

R-squared 0.908373 Mean dependent var 2758.210

Adjusted R-squared 0.816746 S.D. dependent var 3071.133
S.E. of regression 1314.698 Akaike info criterion 17.50715
Sum squared resid 34568607 Schwarz criterion 18.38484
Log likelihood -337.8966 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.82676
F-statistic 9.913784 Durbin-Watson stat 2.146249
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002