Engineering To Live Within Planetary Boundaries
Engineering To Live Within Planetary Boundaries
Engineering To Live Within Planetary Boundaries
planetary boundaries
Civil engineering research needs
The context for development is changing rapidly and it follows that the way we build and
maintain our infrastructure must change accordingly. To be successful this change will need
to be underpinned by a lively research and development base. This paper sets out a future
vision for the development of civil engineering in the broader context of one planet living. It
aims to highlight how the research agenda must change and considers how industry,
government and academia need to combine to deliver this ambitious programme. This short
briefing paper is not intended to be comprehensive, but rather sits alongside other ICE
initiatives in seeking to stimulate the transition needed to live within the boundaries set by our
planet.
Civil engineers design and build the infrastructure that surrounds us, providing transport,
energy and water distribution as well as the buildings in which we live and work. Our
infrastructure is designed to withstand a range of weather conditions and last for tens or
hundreds of years. This infrastructure adds to our quality of life, so much so that it is often
taken for granted and only noticed when parts of it fail, or are taken away.
Most branches of engineering involve design work of some form and this is underpinned by
research into new technologies, materials and methods. What makes civil engineering
different is that, while components of a structure may be fabricated, much as in most other
branches of engineering that involve manufacturing processes, the structure itself is typically
unique a bespoke design and construction to meet the specific infrastructure needs matched
to the local environment and ground conditions. The sheer size of many projects also means
that it is often impractical to undertake large-scale tests, so that opportunities to test and
evaluate new, replicable techniques and materials need to be created as an integral part of
major civil engineering projects.
The developed world has a huge capital investment in existing infrastructure and as a
consequence there is an important ongoing requirement to maintain and update this
infrastructure to meet changing needs and conditions. Developing techniques to renew or
adapt existing infrastructure is now critical in ensuring that the built environment can be
maintained to meet the needs of present and future generations.
Planetary Boundaries
The concept of planetary boundaries aims to assess the scale of human activity in relation to
the capacity of the Earth to sustain that activity1, based on the biophysical processes of the
Earth System that determine the self-regulating capacity of the planet. As such it aims to
identify the rules of the game within which human enterprise must operate to avoid changes
that may challenge social and ecological resilience at both regional and global scales. The
approach is relatively new and there is much work still to be done to ascertain the choice and
definition of a robust set of boundaries. However, the concept is clear and sufficiently
intuitive that we can begin to explore ways in which society can stay within such boundaries.
The processes on which boundaries are proposed include climate change, rate of biodiversity
loss, the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification,
global freshwater use, land use, atmospheric aerosol loading and chemical pollution.
Considering what needs to be done to stay within (or get back within) the proposed
boundaries suggests a number of limits to human activities:
1. Controlling the level of greenhouse gases, most notably CO2, through a move to a low
carbon economy. This is largely the remit of the climate mitigation and energy security
agenda.
2. Ensuring that the emission of ozone depleting substances continues to be controlled.
3. Controlling (i) the fixation of nitrogen from the atmosphere and its subsequent flow into
land, ocean and atmospheric systems and (ii) the rate at which phosphorous flows to the
oceans. This may mean reducing the amount industrial and agricultural fixation of
nitrogen, and reduced fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning to manage the supply
side, in conjunction with measures to eliminate, control or capture nitrogen and
phosphorous in the various earth system pathways.
4. Limiting land system change by developing global spatial planning that reserves the most
productive land for agriculture and maximises the maintenance of key ecosystems in
their undisturbed or managed state. In some cases this may need to be spatially dynamic
and will also cascade down to impact on spatial planning at all scales.
5. Limiting the human consumption of water to ensure that there is sufficient capacity
within the water cycle to meet the needs of ecosystem functions and services in addition
to human needs.
6. Developing processes that reduce or eliminate various forms of atmospheric pollution,
such as dust or particle emissions, or the production of compounds including nitrates,
sulphates, ammonium and non-volatile organics.
7. Controlling or eliminating chemical pollution of earth systems, noting that this can itself
affect other planetary boundaries. In particular, ecosystem services are used extensively
to sequester pollutants with a longer-term and often cumulative impact.
1
Rockstrm J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson A, Chapin FS, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M,
Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sorlin S,
Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J,
Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P, Foley JA, 2009, A safe operating space for
humanity, Nature, 461(7263), 472-475.
Many of these controls may be seen as environmental in character and it could be argued that
they are therefore the remit of environmental planners and managers. However, society
functions around an infrastructure that largely determines human interaction with the
environment. How we engineer that infrastructure in the future is therefore likely to have a
major influence on our ability to live within the sort of planetary boundaries being proposed.
Given the operational life of most infrastructure and the lead time for developing new
infrastructure, only by starting to make changes now can we hope to have an impact on our
encroachment of these boundaries over the next 20-50 years.
This is brought into sharper focus by two additional factors: (i) population growth and (ii)
finite natural resources. Taken together these factors mean greater pressure on a diminishing
resource of aggregates, minerals, fossil fuels, etc, as well as resources that should, with
responsible stewardship, be renewable. Thus access to traditional building materials is likely
to become more costly and, coupled with moves to minimise carbon use, alternative ways of
building or even delivering infrastructure services need to identified and developed.
Climate change has become a dominant policy factor across the world. Public policy
statements at international and national level include targets for reducing carbon output from
human economic activities across a range of fields2. On the one hand, this is necessarily a
global endeavour but most of the actions required, in terms of both mitigation and adaptation
measures, will need to be undertaken at the local or regional.
Resource depletion, coupled with population growth, is now emerging as a serious constraint.
Oil: The forecast peak in world oil supplies means that energy prices could rise very
steeply within the next decade, perhaps within five years3. The developed world currently
uses 50Mb/d4 and total consumption is just over 80Mb/d. Production is currently about
84Mb/d and is set to increase to over 90Mb/d but demand, in particular increased demand
in the developing world, is forecast to grow to about 105Mb/d by 20305.
Water: at present there is enough fresh water on the planet to support the needs (but not
the excesses) of population of some 6 billion6. The problem is that the supply is not
evenly distributed and in water stressed areas abstraction can compound wider
degradation of the ecosystem. Today some 0.7 billion people live in areas of water
scarcity; this is set to more than double by 2025. The difference in per capita
consumption is (as with oil) stark, with developed countries using over an order of
magnitude more water per day per person (200-400 litres/day as against 10-12 litres/day).
2
Committee on Climate Change, December 2008, Building a low-carbon economy the UKs
contribution to tackling climate change
3
UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security (ITPOES), 2010, The Oil Crunch a wake up
call for the UK economy, Ove Arup & Partners, London
4
Mb/d million barrels per day
5
On a per capita basis, the OECD counties currently use 18b/year/person and the non-OECD countries
2b/year/person.
6
http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.html
Demography and social structures are also changing. The number and proportion of elderly
people in the population is forecast to increase significantly. In addition, the erosion of
established family and community structures is leading to changing patterns of economic and
social activity. These changes raise issues of how to adapt infrastructure to address social and
societal needs, whilst also supporting the economy.
Ageing infrastructure needs to be maintained or replaced. The developed world has a huge
investment in existing infrastructure and, as already noted, this is often take for granted or
assumed to be the status quo. However, all infrastructure entails a future commitment, which
may be as minimal as routine inspections but is more likely to entail planned maintenance and
an expectation that it will need to be replaced at some point in the future8. This does of
course provide opportunities for adapting infrastructure to changing needs but will need to be
anticipated and planned for if it is to be successful and resources are to be used efficiently.
A low carbon economy is a central component of the changes needed. Within the UK, the
Climate Change Act and the target set by government of an 80% reduction in emissions by
2050 sets a strong policy framework. The work of the UK Construction Industry Innovation
& Growth Team has begun to identify the changes that are needed within the industry to
move to a low carbon economy.
Changes introduced to meet new objectives may in themselves increase or change demand
(e.g. a shift to using electric cars as part of the move to a low carbon society), or bring the
industry sector into conflict with other legislative requirements (e.g. increased waste water
treatment to meet environmental needs, which increases energy use). There may therefore
7
Kesler SE, 2007, Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century, U.S. Geological Survey,
Denver, USA, Circular 1294, pp. 55-62.
8
The ICE State of the Nation reports provides a regular assessment of the state of the UKs
infrastructure. See: http://www.ice.org.uk/News-Public-Affairs/State-of-the-Nation
A common emerging theme, when considering multiple objectives (an inevitable consequence
of planetary boundaries) is that of conflict. This is often around issues of scale or societal
preferences, such as:
Centralised versus de-centralised delivery
Renewable energy generation versus concerns over immediate environmental impact
Nuclear energy generation versus CO2 emissions
Reduction in CO2 emissions versus security of energy supply
Reduction in transports carbon impact versus freedom for dispersed travel choices
Energy versus resource conservation in the recovery of certain materials from wastes
Protecting the current environment versus letting nature take its course (eg. in
shoreline management)
Investment of energy and resource in fixed infrastructure versus use (eg high speed
rail versus flying) in transport systems
Use of scarce water resources for food, industry and people versus protecting or
enhancing the environment
Energy use for cleaning wastewater to higher standards versus commitments to
reduce carbon costs
For example, nuclear power is low carbon but is not classed as a renewable form of energy
generation. Some renewable energy schemes, such as the Severn Barrage, are contentious for
environmental reasons. There is therefore an urgent need to better understand how best to
meet energy needs whilst also addressing the commitment to reduce CO2 emissions. David
MacKay has set out the basis of a balance sheet9, but there remain numerous uncertainties and
huge scope to research better solutions for both the supply and demand sides of the balance
sheet.
Furthermore, optimum delivery modes often vary with scale. There are growing pressures to
provide alternatives to car use, especially through encouraging public transport development.
This is increasingly supported by the benefits for the economy from increasing the
opportunity for all individuals to gain far easier access to employment and services. However
the optimum solutions to deliver such benefits vary with scale (e.g. large city versus small
town) and the interaction with other aspects of our infrastructure (e.g. commercial and
residential buildings, power and water supply lines). Furthermore, while mass movements of
people are likely to remain, we can also anticipate that information exchange will continue to
develop rapidly and may fundamentally change the nature of many business transactions.
Understanding these scale effects and being able to optimise around them will be central to
improved planning and design in the future.
9
MacKay D, 2009, Sustainable Energy without the hot air, UIT, Cambridge, England
10
Indicative estimates from HM Treasury & Infrastructure UK, 2010, Strategy for national
infrastructure (based on 2008/09 prices).
11
http://www.epsrc.ac.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/other/2009gsereview/futurechallenges.pdf
12
Includes flooding
Infrastructure planning
Examine the interactive influence of scale for decisions within and between infrastructure
sectors. Typically this relates to choices at local, regional or national scale and between
public and private led initiatives (e.g. public transport versus private, local power
generation versus national grid, catchment management versus national water
distribution, etc).
Facilitate the integration of infrastructure planning and management with spatial planning
and other fields (multi-disciplinary research needed).
Identify opportunities for multi-purpose operations, such as waste treatment with
combined heat and power.
Security
Develop more resilient networks and safer places.
Determine how to deliver security of supply (energy, water, transport network, etc) with
minimum overhead costs.
Explore response options in the event of critical system failures, including a better
understanding of human reactions.
More generally, though, the recurring themes in infrastructure are the long lead times and the
relatively long life of most structures (at least several decades - much of waste water
infrastructure is a result of Victorian investment). This locks society into planning and
infrastructure decisions for a long time. There is therefore an urgent need for an active
research agenda, with a clear route through to industry uptake, that addresses issues related to
climate change, the move to a low carbon economy, the development of alternative
techniques to cope with resource constraints and reduced environmental impact. This means
13
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/programme/across-government.htm
14
Helm D, Wardlaw J, Caldecott B, 2009, Delivering a 21st Century Infrastructure for Britain, Policy
Exchange, London.
15
OECD, 2007, Economic Survey of the UK
16
ICE, 2010, A manifesto for UK Infrastructure
An industry body such as the ICE could act as a focus for bringing together the industry and
the research teams, with bodies such as CIRIA21 and Constructing Excellence providing the
means of compiling the research results into practice guides.
Some evidence for the direct benefit of research to UK provided by translational research
undertaken by Research and Technology Organisations is provided by the study undertaken
by Oxford Economics22. A key element of the economic impact of the Intermediate Sector
on UK productivity reflects the large amount of research and development (R&D) it
undertakes (~400m in 2006). In addition, the sector generates a significant spill over effect
where this R&D is taken up in other sectors, providing a substantial additional contribution to
GDP and a substantial multiplier on the R&D investment.
Research infrastructure
The research infrastructure needs to develop to ensure the continued health of blue skies
research, and to improve the routes for pulling it through into applied research and into
practice. Importantly, there is a need for constant two-way flow of information between
practitioners and researchers, proactive management and much greater recognition of the
benefits of research and innovation in the procurement process.
It is widely recognised that the UK has a world class science and engineering research base
and yet the UK has consistently struggled to convert research breakthroughs into commercial
products. There is good evidence23 that a high level of support is necessary to take ideas
through to market. Indeed, this transition phase is often referred to as the valley of death, in
recognition of the fact that so many good ideas founder at this stage.
A recent report prepared for the last government suggest that a network of elite business-
focused national Technology and Innovation Centres (TICs) would provide an appropriate
17
http://www.omegacentre.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/studies/cases/metro-london_jubilee.php
18
Building Response to Tunnelling: Case studies from Construction of the Jubilee Line Extension,
London (2 vols), Thomas Telford, 2001
19
D Twine and H Roscoe (1999). Temporary propping of deep excavations guidance on design.
CIRIA Report C517. London: Constriction Industry Research and Information Association
20
W Powrie & T O L Roberts (1990). Field trial of an ejector well dewatering system at Conwy, North
Wales. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology 23(2), 169-185
21
Construction Industry Research and Information Association
22
Oxford Economics, 2007, Study of the impact of the Intermediate Research and Technology Sector
on the UK economy
23
http://www.cleanenergystates.org/CaseStudies/NREL-Bridging_the_Valley_of_Death.pdf
In some quarters there is a misplaced perception that RTOs simply compete with universities
or consultants, whereas there is substantial evidence that RTOs are recognised by industry as
partners that enhance what universities have to offer18:
Fraunhofers many An-Institute with universities in Germany;
TNOs participation in Technological Top Institutes with universities and enterprises in
the Netherlands;
Sintefs organic links with the Norwegian Institute of Technology;
CEAs 62 joint research facilities with universities and research organisations in France;
HR Wallingfords Fluid Earth initiative for university partnering and the BRE Trust
initiative for University Centres of Excellence in the UK28
In these examples, the skills of RTOs and universities are found to be complementary, their
relationships synergistic, mutually beneficial and long-term. The present need is to improve
the interaction between academia and industry, where the RTOs can provide a well trained
resource that is already capable of doing this in some areas.
Another consideration is the financial model needed. In many areas of research, the
development of a new idea leads to patents or the ability to commercialise the idea in some
way. In civil engineering this tends not to be the case. Generally, ideas will only be accepted
and adopted if they are published and made accessible to all the opposite of the
conventional patenting approach. There are at least three contributing reasons for this:
much of the funding for infrastructure is, ultimately, from the public sector;
the paramount importance of public safety means that full disclosure is often a
prerequisite for adoption (Ciceros law);
there is an established resistance in the industry, which often leads to reinvention in
preference to adoption of existing but protected technologies.
24
Hauser H, 2010. The Current and Future Role of Technology and Innovation Centres in the UK,
Report for Lord Mandelson, Secretary of State Department for Business Innovation & Skills
25
EARTO, 2007, Research and Technology Organisations in the Evolving European Research Area:
A status reporting with policy recommendations
http://www.earto.eu/fileadmin/content/03_Publications/RTOs_and_the_Evolving_European_Research
_Area_WhitePaperFinal.pdf
26
Association of Independent Research and Technology Organisations (www.airto.co.uk) Research
and Technology Organisations (RTOs), operate on both a commercial and not-for-profit basis. AIRTO
currently represents around 50% of the intermediate sector between academia and the end-users of
technology.
27
HM Treasury & Infrastructure UK, 2010, Strategy for national infrastructure
28
https://fluidearth.net and http://www.bre.co.uk/bretrust/
Taking account of the above issues, one way forward would be to put in place a framework to
encourage a closer working partnership between funders, industry and academia. This might
be done by:
1. encouraging the Research Councils to procure and fund the fundamental research
required to address some of the strategic needs identified
2. stimulating closer working between industry and academia, making use of RTOs where
they have a role to play. This might involve fiscal measures, such as re-focussing R&D
tax credits to science and engineering research that has a societal or environmental
benefit, rather than having to be primarily an advance in science29.
3. progressing some of the research to address long-term societal needs by embedding this
as a requirement within a construction scheme procurement process.
It may be that some overall co-ordination is needed but the primary requirement is to provide
the financial stimulus to encourage parties to work together. Depending on how the role of
Infrastructure UK develops, the promotion of such changes and any overall co-ordination
necessary may be something that they could take on.
It has been estimated that the UK will need to recruit over half a million new workers into
engineering and manufacturing in the period 2007-1730. There is therefore a short-term
imperative for education and training to produce a work force capable of delivering
infrastructure against the revised criteria that will increasingly govern the design and
implementation process.
It is important to bear in mind that current UK research spend through the research councils
contains significant funds for research studentships. Furthermore a portion of a Councils
research grants portfolios may include expenditure on personnel. Education and training at
postgraduate research level already has, therefore, a strong presence. It is vitally important to
maintain this level of expenditure, particularly at PhD level, in the coming years.
Further skills shortage issues will also need to be addressed through the lifelong
learning/widening access agenda. Mechanisms need to be developed that provide a rapid
feedback from application, through lessons learnt to updating of education material.
For the civil engineering community at large the role of the so-called post graduate taught
student is of vital importance, i.e. one year Masters courses in specialised subjects. These
courses not only provide personnel at the appropriate skills level that are of great value to UK
industry, but also provide an excellent framework via a modular approach for the whole life
long learning agenda. These can be taught via e-learning techniques, and also provide an
excellent grounding for entry into PhD studies.
Moving to a low carbon economy needs standards, guidelines and training at all levels. Given
the lead time and life of most infrastructure, this needs to be made available as quickly as
possible if we are to make a significant difference within a timescale of 20-30 years. This will
29
http://www.bis.gov.uk/policies/innovation/business-support/rd-tax-credits/tax-guidelines
30
Engineering UK, 2009, Engineering UK 2009/10
The need for rapid action and feedback means that procurement also needs to include R&D
focussed on the long-term objectives of infrastructure schemes to explore alternatives and
identify the best option. There have recently been some moves towards scheme evaluation
that considers how climate change may influence decisions over time31. Developments in
carbon accounting mean that financial and carbon costs will increasingly be considered in
tandem. However, in the context of planetary boundaries, there may be a need to broaden this
further to multiple criteria, using suitable optimisation tools to identify the best option(s).
Whilst in the very short-term this may need to focus on rapid economic benefit, we suggest
that this moves quickly to an emphasis on:
delivering a vibrant economy in which the UK plays its part in reducing the pressure on
planetary boundaries
Some of the research needed to deliver this vision have been outlined and we would
emphasise two aspects of this agenda:
(i) The need for multi-disciplinary research and cross-profession collaboration to deliver
the change needed
(ii) The need for rapid development of the research base to underpin integrated planning
at multiple scales that recognises the interplay of complex dynamic networks.
Finally, we have endeavoured to explain why civil engineering needs a new framework for
research translation. This needs to go beyond initiatives such as the Knowledge Transfer
Networks, which have largely operated at the fringes of the industries needs. We have
proposed one way of establishing the conditions needed to generate and sustain a more
proactive relationship between industry and academia, which we believe is necessary if the
industry is to respond to very real limits to human activity and the need to live within the
planetary boundaries that we believe must underpin all future developments.
There may be other ways of achieving the same objective and we would encourage the
industry, working with government, to seek a solution that can be adopted as quickly as
possible.
31
HM Treasury Green Book. www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/green_book_complete.pdf and
www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/documents/adaptation-guidance.pdf
Cite as:
ICE, 2010, Engineering to live within Planetary Boundaries: Research Needs for Civil
Engineering, Institution of Civil Engineers, London, p1-12.