1. A fair coin is tossed and a fair die is rolled.

(a) List all possible outcomes for this experiment.

(b) List the outcomes in each of the following events:
(1) A = "a tail and a number greater than 2 come up" (4) A and B
(2) B = "an even number is rolled" (5) A or B
(3) C = "an odd number is rolled" (6) A
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b).
(d) Are the events B and C mutually exclusive? Explain. What about the events A and B?
Explain.

2. Box #1 contains three coins with denominations 5 cents, 10 cents, and 25 cents. Box #2
also contains a nickel, a dime, and a quarter. A coin is drawn at random from each box.
(a) List all possible outcomes of this experiment.
(b) List the outcomes of the following events:
(1) A = "the total amount of money drawn is even" (4) A and B
(2) B = "the second amount drawn is divisible by the first amount drawn" (5) A or B
(3) C = "a total of 15 cents is drawn" (6) A
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b).
(d) Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? Explain. What about the events A and C?
Explain.
(e) Do the three events A, B, and C have any outcomes in common? Explain.

3. A couple is planning to have three children. The sex of each of the three children is of
interest to them.
(a) Use a tree diagram to list all the possibilities for this couple (a typical outcome might
be 'mfm', i.e. male child first, female second, and male third)
(b) List the outcomes of the following events:
(1) A = "all 3 children are male" (4) B
(2) B = "exactly 2 children are female" (5) B and C
(3) C = "the first child is female" (6) B or C
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b).
(d) Are the events B and C mutually exclusive? Explain. What about the events A and B?
Explain.

4. (a) It is known that P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B).

Use this fact to show that P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A or B)
(b) Use (a) to explain why P(A and B) P(A) + P(B) - 1

5. A message is carried over a satellite communications system using code words which are
4 digits in length. Each digit in a code word is either 0 or 1. For example, a typical code
word is 0110. Suppose a code word is formed at random.
(a) List the sample space of all possible code words (use a tree diagram if you like).
(b) List the outcomes of the following events:
(1) A = "the code word begins with '0'" (4) A and B
(2) B = "the code word ends with '11'" (5) A or B
(3) C = "the code word begins with '1'" (6) A
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b).
(d) Are the events A and C mutually exclusive? What about the events B and C? Explain.
6. The CIA wishes to form a code name consisting of 3 letters followed by a number. The
letters are to be randomly picked reorderings of the letters K, L, M; the number is to be
chosen randomly from {0,1}.
(a) List the sample space of all possible code names.
(b) List the outcomes of the following events:
(1) A = "the letters K and M appear next to each other in any order"
(2) B = "the code name ends with 1"
(3) A and B
(4) A or B
(5) B
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b).
(d) Find the probability that the letters K and M appear next to each other in any order
given that the code word ends with 1. [i.e. find P(A | B)]

7. The Canadian government intends to build two new research centres, one in western
Canada and one in eastern Canada. Four western cities E, F, G, and H are possibilities for
Centre West and three eastern cities K, L, and M are possibilities for Centre East.
(a)Use a tree diagram to list all possible outcomes for locating the two plants.
(b) List the outcomes in the following events:
(1) A = "Centre West is located in city F" (3) A and B
(2) B = "Centre EAST is located in city L or M" (4) A or B
(c) Suppose that each of the western and eastern cities is equally likely to be chosen. Find
the probability of each of the events in (b).
(d) Find P(A | B). State in words what P(A | B) means.

8. Three students A, B, and C who have applied for a scholarship are ranked (1 for 1st choice,
2 for 2nd choice and 3 for 3rd choice with no ties allowed). Suppose that the students were
so close in ability that they were ranked randomly.
(a) List the sample space. [Hint: a typical outcome might be (2,1,3) which means A was
ranked 2nd, B was ranked 1st, and C was ranked 3rd; use a tree diagram, if you like, to
list all possible outcomes]
(b) List the outcomes of the following events:
(1) F = "Student A is ranked #1", (2) G = "Student B is ranked #2", (3) F and G
(c) Find the probability of each event in (b); also find P(F | G). State in words what P(F |
G) means.

9. A company has 4 applicants for 2 positions: 1 woman and 3 men. Suppose that all
applicants are qualified and that no preference is given for choosing either sex.
(a) List all the possible outcomes of this experiment (HINT: Label the applicants as M1,
M2, M3, and W1)
(b) Find the probability that two males are chosen to fill the 2 positions.
(c) Find the probability that a male is chosen to fill the first position.
(d) Find the probability that a male is chosen to fill the second position.
(e) Find the probability that a male will be chosen to fill the second position given that a
male has been chosen to fill the first position.
(f) What do the answers to (d) and (e) tell you about the connection, if any, between the
events "a male is chosen to fill the first position" and "a male is chosen to fill the second
position".
10. A sample of 100 fir seeds was classified by type and germination status within 5 weeks of
planting.

TYPE OF SEED
A B C
Germinated G 14 16 20 50
Failed to Germinate F 4 16 30 50
18 32 50 100

(a) If one of these seeds is chosen at random find the probability that:
(1) it is of type C
(2) it germinates and is of type B
(3) it fails to germinate or is of type A
(4) it germinates or is not of type C
(5) it germinates given it is of type B
(b) Determine whether the events 'germinating' and 'type B seed are independent in two
ways.
(1) check if P(G | B) and P(G) are the same
(2) check if P(G and B) and P(G)P(B) are the same

11. A sample of 500 individuals was classified by 'years of education' and 'annual income'.

ANNUAL INCOME (in $1000)

0 - 10 11 - 25 26 - 40 41 and over
0-8 45 40 10 5 100
9 - 12 40 80 90 35 245
over 12 10 40 60 45 155
95 160 160 85 500

(a) An individual is randomly chosen from this group. Find the probability that he (or she):
(1) has 9-12 years of education
(2) has 9 or more years of education
(3) has 9-12 years of education and earns 26-40 thousand
(4) has 9-12 years of education or earns 26-40 thousand
(5) earns 26-40 thousand given he has 9-12 years of education
(6) has no more than 12 years of education and earns more than 10 thousand
(b) Find the probability an individual chosen from the group with "more than 8 years of
education" earns "more than 25 thousand".
(c) Are the events "has 9-12 years of education" and "earns 26-40 thousand" independent?
Explain.
12. A group of 500 adults is classified by obesity and status regarding hypertension

OBESITY
Low Average HIGH
HYPERTENSION Yes 75 50 125 250
No 100 25 125 250
175 75 250 500

(a) If an individual is randomly chosen from this group find the probability that:
(1) the individual is hypertensive
(2) the individual is of average obesity
(3) the individual is hypertensive AND of high obesity
(4) the individual is of low obesity GIVEN the individual is hypertensive i.e. P(L | Y)
(5) the individual is of low obesity OR not hypertensive
(6) the individual is NOT of average obesity
(7) the individual is hypertensive OR not of high obesity
(b) Determine whether or not the events L and Y are independent in two ways:
(1) check if P(L | Y) and P(L) are the same
(2) check if P(L and Y) and P(L)P(Y) are the same
(c) Determine whether or not the events 'not hypertensive' and 'high obesity' are
independent using both methods described in (b).

13. After completing an inventory of four warehouses, a golf club shaft manufacturer described
his stock of 12,000 shafts as follows.

WAREHOUSE
TYPE OF
W X Y Z TOTAL
SHAFT
A: ALUMINUM 2280 1440 1680 1800 7200
B: STEEL 840 960 1200 960 3960
C: GRAPHITE 360 240 120 120 840
3480 2640 3000 2880 12000

One shaft is selected at random from among the 12,000 described above.

(a) What is the probability the shaft is located at warehouse Z and is aluminum?
(b) What is the probability the shaft is located at warehouse W?
(c) What is the probability the shaft is steel or is located at warehouse Y?
(d) What is the probability the shaft is steel given that it is located at warehouse X?
(e) Is whether a shaft is graphite independent of whether it is located at warehouse Y?
Explain.
14. A large company has done a careful analysis of its promotion of a particular product. In a
survey of 500 people in the test market, the following results were obtained: 400 people
were aware of the promotion, 125 people purchased the product, and 100 people were both
aware of the promotion and purchased the product.

(a) Summarize the information from the survey using a contingency table with row
categories Aware of the Promotion and Not Aware and column categories
Purchased the Product and Did not Purchase the Product.
(b) Suppose that one person is selected at random from those surveyed. Use the information
from the contingency table in (a) to answer the following.
(1) What is the probability that the person made a purchase or was aware of the
promotion?
(2) What is the probability that the person made a purchase given that he/she was aware
of the promotion?
(3) What is the probability that the person made a purchase given that he/she was not
aware of the promotion?
(4) Based on your answers to (2) and (3), would you recommend that the company
introduce this promotion on a national scale? Explain.

15. A restaurant has 540 bottles of wine in the wine cellar. Wines are classified by colour (red,
white, or rose) and type (sweet or dry). It is known that there are 300 bottles of red wine,
144 bottles of dry wine, and 171 bottles of white wine in the cellar. Also there are 72 bottles
of dry red wine and no bottles of dry rose wine.
(a) Summarize the above information using a contingency table.
(b) Suppose that someone goes into the cellar in the dark, randomly selects a bottle of wine,
and sips it to find it sweet. What is the probability that it is not red?

16. (a) Given P(A) = .6, P(B) = .5, P(A and B) = .2, find (i) P(A or B), (ii) P( A ), (iii) P( B )
(b) Given P(C) = .5, P(D) = .4, P(C or D) = .7, find P(C and D).
(c) For events F and G is it possible that P(F) = .8, P(G) = .6 and P(F and G) = .3?
Explain your answer.

17. Suppose A and B are events with P(A) = .7, P(B)= .4, and P(A or B) =.82.
(a) Find P(A and B)
(b) Find P(A | B)
(c) Determine if A and B are independent events in two ways:
(i) check if P(A|B) = P(A), (ii) check if P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

18. (a) Given P(A) = .7, P(B) = .5, P(A or B) = .8, find P(A and B)
(b) For events C and D is it possible that P(C) = .8, P(D) = .6 and P(C and D) = .3?
Explain your answer. What is the smallest possible value of P(C and D) in this case?
Explain using a diagram if you like.
(c) Given P(F) = .6, P(E | F) = .2, find P(E and F).

19. Given P(B) = .6, P(A | B) = .2,

(a) Find P(A and B). (b) If it is also known that P(A) = .3, find (i) P(A or B), (ii) P(B | A).

20. Given that A and B are independent, and P(A) = .4, P(B) = .8, find
(a) P(A and B), (b) P(A or B).
21. Let F and G be two independent events with P(F) = .4 and P(G) = .3. Find
(a) P(F or G), (b) P(F | G), (c) P(G | F).

22. Let F and G be two events with P(F) = .4, P(G) = .3 and P(F or G) = .5.
(a) Find P(F and G), (b) Are F and G independent? Explain.

23. Suppose A and B are events with P(A) = .7, P(B) = .3, and P(B | A)= .4. Find:
(a) P(A and B), (b) P(A | B), and (c) P(A or B).

24. In a university 40% of the students take English, 25% take Math and 53% take one or the
other (or both).
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student from this university takes both
Mathematics and English.
(b) Are "taking English" and "taking Mathematics" independent events? Justify your
answer.
(c) Are "taking English" and "taking Mathematics" mutually exclusive events? Justify your
answer.
(d) Given that a student is taking mathematics, find the probability that he/she is also taking
english.
(e) Given that a student is taking english, find the probability that he/she is also taking
mathematics.
Hint: Let E = "a student takes English", M = "a student takes Mathematics".

25. In a factory a particular machine is necessary for the assembly line to meet its production
schedule. Suppose that, on a given day, the probability the machine will become inoperative
due to mechanical failure is 0.2 while the probability it will become inoperative due to the
absence of the operator is 0.1. Furthermore suppose that these two events are independent
of each other. Find the probability that on a given day
(a) The machine will be inoperative.
(b) The assembly line will meet its production schedule.

26. An urn contains 500 balls, 100 red, 250 white and 150 blue. Two balls are drawn in
succession and without replacement.
(a) Use the multiplication rule to find the probability of each of the following events:
(1) two red balls are drawn, (2) a red ball is drawn first and a white ball second.
(b) Repeat (a) if the first ball is returned to the urn before the second is drawn. (This is
known as sampling with replacement)

27. The Prime Minister wishes to fill two government positions. He decides to choose the
individuals randomly from a group consisting of 60 Liberals, 100 Conservatives, and 40
New Democrats. Assuming one person is not allowed to fill two positions at the same time,
find the probability of the following events:
(a) A = "a Conservative is chosen first", (b) B = "two Conservatives are chosen"

28. In a lottery two numbers are chosen one at a time without replacement from the numbers 1
to 100. Suppose you have purchased a ticket with one number.
(a) Find the probability that
(1) your number is drawn first and (2) your number is not selected in either draw.
(b) What rule of probability are you using in (a)(2)?
29. In each of (a) to (g) below state whether or not the events A and B are mutually exclusive.
Explain why.
(a) A = "Jack and Jill's new baby will be a girl"
B = "Jack and Jill's new baby will be a boy"
(b) A = "a randomly selected male is overweight"
B = "a randomly selected male has low blood pressure"
(c) A = "In 3 tosses of a coin at least 2 heads are obtained"
B = "In 3 tosses of a coin fewer than 2 heads are obtained"
(d) A = "The Liberals elect a majority of seats in Parliament"
B = "The Liberals receive a majority of votes"
(e) A = "The men's university hockey team wins their game"
B = "The women's university soccer team wins their game"
(f) A = "The men's university hockey team wins their game"
B = "The men's university hockey team ties their game"
(g) A = "The Montreal Canadians win the Stanley Cup"
B = "The Montreal Expos win the World Series"

30. The probability a particular coin will come up "heads" when tossed is .8. Suppose that this
coin is tossed four times and that the outcome of a toss is independent of the outcome of
any other toss.
(a) Use a tree diagram to list all possible outcomes of this experiment. Calculate the
probability of each outcome. (Use independence and the product rule here.)
(b) Find the probability of obtaining two or more heads.

31. A screening test for a particular type of cancer has been developed for a certain population
of women. It is known that 2% of the women in this population have this form of cancer.
The test was given to individuals known to have the disease and a correct test result was
obtained in 95% of the cases. The test was also given to individuals known to be free of the
disease and 4% of these tested positive (i.e. a 4% false-positive rate). Find the probability
that a woman in this population who tests positive has the disease.

32. A screening test for AIDS is applied to a certain population; .6% of this population have
AIDS. This screening test is positive for 98% of the people with the disease and negative
for 93% of the people without the disease. Find the probability that a person testing positive
really has AIDS.

33. In a certain province, 25% of all cars emit excessive amounts of pollutants. If the
probability is .99 that a car emitting excessive amounts of pollutants will fail the province's
vehicular emission test, and the probability is .17 that a car not emitting excessive amounts
of pollutant will nevertheless fail the test, what is the probability that a car which fails the
test actually emits excessive amounts of pollutants?
34. Consider the problem of screening for tuberculosis (TB). It is known that one person in
10,000 has TB. The probability an individual with TB will have a positive X-ray is .90,
while the probability a person without TB will have a positive X-ray is .001.
(a) Find the probability that a person actually has TB given that the X-ray says he
does.
(b) Find the probability that an individual tests negative.

35. How useful is a lie detector or polygraph test in assessing a person's guilt? Based on
previous studies it is estimated that the probability a guilty person is detected as guilty is
.88, while the probability an innocent person is classified as innocent is .86. Suppose a
polygraph is used among a population of people indicted of a felony and that past
experience has shown that about 90% of this population is in fact guilty. Find the
probability that a person with a positive (guilty) lie detector test result is really guilty.

36. A certain company manufactures computer chips. It is known that 10% of the chips
produced are defective. Unfortunately, the test for detecting defective chips is not
foolproof; 5% of all defective chips will be classified as good and 99% of all good
chips will be classified as good. If a chip is classified as good, find the probability that it
actually is good.

37. It is known that 2% of the people in a population have a certain disease. A diagnostic test
for the disease performs as follows: 1% of people without the disease will test positive (i.e.
be diagnosed as having the disease) and 4% of those with the disease will test negative (i.e.
be diagnosed as NOT having the disease).

(a) Suppose an individual is randomly selected from the population. If this individual tests
positive, find the probability that he actually has the disease.
(b) Find the probability a randomly selected individual has the disease and tests negative.
(c) Suppose an individual is randomly selected from the population. Find the probability
the individual tests positive.

38. A quality control inspector accepts only 5% of all bad items and rejects only 1% of all
good items. Overall production quality is such that only 90% of the items are good. Find
the probability that an item that is accepted is good.

39. Four musicians decide to form a band, and all they need is a name. They plan to form
a four letter name using the initials of their first names. Their names are Agnetha
Kluwer, Ani-Frid Erikssen, Bjorn Ingber, and Benny Andrews.
(a) List the sample space for all distinct arrangements of first initials.
(b) What is the probability this group will be called ABBA?
(c) If they use last names instead, what is the probability that they are called IKEA?

40. In the train station, k persons enter a train with m coaches. Assume that k is less than
or equal to m. Each coach has at least k seats. Find the probability that each coach
will be entered by at most one person.
41. A bank uses 5 digit PIN numbers (eg 02297). Assume all combinations are equally
likely.
(a) What is the probability of guessing somebody's PIN number on a single attempt?
(b) What is the probability of guessing somebody's PIN number in 3 attempts using
different PIN numbers each time?

42. A box containing loose change has 20 pennies, 7 nickels, 13 dimes and no other coins.
Three coins are picked at random.
a. If each coin is replaced after being picked, calculate the probabilities of the
following events:
i. All three coins are of the same value.
ii. Two pennies and a dime are chosen.
b. If the coins are not replaced, calculate the probabilities of the following events:
i. All three coins are of the same value.
ii. The combined value of the three coins is 11 cents or less.

43. A box contains 2 tulips bulbs, 3 crocus bulbs and 4 daffodil bulbs. Three bulbs are
picked at random and planted.
a. What is the probability that one of each type of bulb was planted?
b. What is the probability that at least on daffodil bulb was planted?

44. Suppose that the weather forecast this morning says that there was a 20% chance of
snow, a 15% chance of snow and no rain, and a 40% chance of rain or snow (i.e. rain
or snow or both). Calculate:
a. The probability that there will be no rain and no snow.
b. The probability that there will be rain and no snow.
c. The probability of rain, given that it snows.