Spotlight

The need for biofuels as part

of a low carbon energy future
Lewis M. Fulton, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
Lee R. Lynd, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Alexander Krner, International Energy Agency, Paris, France
Nathanael Greene, Luke R. Tonachel, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY, USA

Received November 25, 2014; revised March 12, 2015; accepted March 12, 2015
View online at Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com); DOI: 10.1002/bbb.1559;
Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. (2015)

Abstract: The question of whether the world needs biofuels is approached by examining the feasibil-
ity of doing without them. Even with aggressive reductions in travel growth, shifts to mass transport
modes, strong efficiency improvements, and deep market penetration by vehicles running on electric-
ity and hydrogen, there remains a large demand for dense liquid fuels in 2050 (80% of transportation
fuel) and even in 2075 (50%). This demand is due largely to aviation, ocean shipping, and long-haul
trucking. Acknowledging the significant uncertainties involved in such projections and the challenges
faced by all candidate technologies and fuels, we conclude that it will likely be difficult to achieve a
low-carbon transport sector without widespread use of biofuels, and that aggressive efforts to develop
sustainable, low-carbon biofuels alongside other options are warranted. 2015 Society of Chemical
Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Keywords: biofuels; low carbon; transportation; energy futures

Introduction fully decarbonized by then in order to limit global tempera-

ture increase to about two degrees,2 and because this allows
here is a notable lack of consensus about whether enough time for a full transition to near-zero-carbon fuels.1

T biofuels could or should contribute to future energy

supply on a scale large enough to meaningfully impact
global energy challenges. This communication summarizes
The research presented here extends and deepens analysis
presented in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy
Technology Perspectives 2012,1 which two of the present
our analysis of the magnitude of the gap between antici- authors were involved in developing.
pated transport energy demand and the anticipated supply Substantial reductions in CO2 emissions from the trans-
from low-carbon energy options other than biofuels. We port sector can be achieved by increasing vehicle and
focus on scenarios that achieve very low net carbon dioxide modal efficiency, reducing travel demand, and changing
(CO2) emissions, reflecting the consensus that deep reduc- travel patterns toward more efficient modes. However,
tions are needed to avoid radical changes to the worlds cli- achieving deep CO2 reductions will also require a shift to
mate with great attendant risks.1 Acknowledging substantial very low-carbon energy carriers, of which the three most
and unavoidable uncertainty, we consider energy futures likely to play a prominent role are electricity, biofuels, and
out to 2075, since the entire energy system must be nearly hydrogen. For all three, life-cycle carbon emissions vary

Correspondence to: Lewis M. Fulton, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis 1605 Tilia Street, Suite 100,
Davis, CA 95616, USA. E-mail: lmfulton@ucdavis.edu

Co-equal contributors

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 LM Fulton et al. Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future

from near zero to relatively high levels on a well-to-wheels transit modes (bus and rail) and half avoided through bet-
basis, depending on the energy source and supply chain. ter land use, information systems (e.g. teleconferencing),
All three also require significant infrastructure changes and other measures. For freight, half of all air and truck
and technological innovation. For electrical energy storage, travel growth is shifted to rail. Overall these changes in
key challenges include providing very low-carbon electric- travel patterns result in a 20% reduction in energy demand
ity generation and improved battery technology. For hydro- in the 2DS compared to the 4DS in 2050 and 2075. As
gen, challenges include low-carbon production, installation a result of technology-driven efficiency increases, aver-
of a hydrogen transmission and distribution system, and age energy intensity of the stock in all modes worldwide
on-vehicle storage and conversion (mostly likely using is at least 40% less in 2050 than in 2005, mainly from
fuel cell systems). For biofuels, land-use challenges will incremental improvements to internal combustion engine
need to be addressed along with achieving technologies road vehicles, trains, ships and jet aircraft.
to produce fuels from biomass feedstocks sustainably and In addition to demand reduction and increased efficiency,
cost-effectively at a very large scale. These considerations the 2DS includes a rapid penetration of electric vehicles,
make transportation one of the most challenging sectors to plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and biofuels.
reconcile with a low-carbon future. Transportation cannot, For light-duty vehicles, this means a strong trend toward
however, be neglected since it is responsible for about 25% electrification after 2015 and rapid adoption of fuel cell/
of global energy use and dramatic growth in the size of the hydrogen vehicles after 2025. For trucks a shift toward fuel
worlds vehicle fleet, travel activity, energy use and CO2 cells and hydrogen increases dramatically after 2030 and is
emissions is anticipated.1 substantial by 2050. Further electrification and hydrogen
use in road vehicles occurs by 2075. Rail systems are nearly
completely electrified by 2050. The implied rates of tech-
Scenario framework nology change in 2DS are dramatic. For example, among
The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives presents three passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDV), electric/plug-in
energy scenarios, related to 6, 4, and 2 degree centigrade hybrid vehicle sales nearly double each year through 2020,
increases in mean global atmospheric temperature com- increasing from 40 000 in 2011 to 7 million. Growth rates
pared to preindustrial levels denoted 6DS, 4DS, and 2DS, slow thereafter but the absolute increase continues to be
respectively.1 The 6DS results from business as usual dramatic, reaching sales of 30 million in 2030 and over 100
assumptions. The 4DS reflects a range of policies being million by 2050 more than half of new PLDV sales world-
applied that are currently under consideration by govern- wide in that year. Except for plug-in hybrids, internal com-
ments around the world that results in a flattening but not bustion engine vehicles are in steep decline by 2050 and are
significant reduction of CO2 in the future. The 2DS requires completely phased out by 2075 (Fig. 1).
deep CO2 reductions and is developed as a backcast from There are some notable exceptions in the 2DS from the
a given 2050 target, showing combinations of changes in drive toward electrification and hydrogen use in vehicles.
travel patterns, vehicle technologies and fuels that reduce For long-haul trucks and especially for large ships and
CO2 sufficiently without specifying the policies necessary aircraft (the heaviest and longest-travelling modes), elec-
to bring these changes about. The ETP 2DS includes an tricity and hydrogen do not penetrate very significantly
extension to 2075 that reaches zero net carbon emissions for to 2075 and advanced, low-carbon biofuels dominate.
energy production, distribution, and use, primarily through Reasons for this are explored below.
a transition to electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels from
renewable feedstocks, along with widespread use of nuclear
power and carbon capture and storage. Here we extend the
Analytical background
IEA 2DS scenario by examining in more detail implica- The ETP 2012 presented the overarching picture with
tions for fuel consumption by transport mode and fuel type, respect to energy use and CO2 emissions out to 2075, but
quantifying continued anticipated liquid fuel use in 2050 this paper takes a deeper dive in presenting and inter-
and 2075 and the reasons for this, and describing obstacles preting the fuel-related results, especially with regard to
to achieving a low-carbon future without biofuels. its modal distribution. The transportation chapter of ETP
For transport, the ETP 2DS includes a substantial cut 2012 did not draw particular attention to the large amount
in travel growth compared to the 4DS, as well as modal of liquid fuels still in the transportation system even in
shift. By 2050, passenger travel growth by car and air is 2075. The ETP 2DS is very ambitious with respect to trans-
cut by about 25% globally, with about half shifted to mass port CO2 mitigation and ramps up all plausible (and where

2 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. (2015); DOI: 10.1002/bbb

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 Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future LM Fulton et al.

100%

90%

80%

70%
H2 Fuel Cell
60%
Electricity
50% Gasoline/diesel hybrid
40% Plug-in hybrid

30% CNG/LPG ICE

Gasoline/diesel ICE
20%

10%

0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
Figure 1. Technology shares of global light-duty vehicle stocks to 2075, 2DS.

possible cost-effective) CO2 reduction options. With the (a) 180

rates assumed in ETP (such as for fuel efficiency improve- 160

ment, reduction in travel growth, modal shift, and uptake 140
of electricity and hydrogen), a substantial amount of liquid Water
120
fuel use is still projected, and a fuller elucidation of this Air
100
picture is developed here. In particular, we dissegrate the Rail
EJ

2DS scenario into greater modal detail and present the ETP 80
Freight trucks
results in a way that makes the role of biofuels more appar- 60 Buses
ent than has been shown previously. We also review other 40 23 wheelers
studies that have conducted similar types of projections. 20
PLDVs
The biofuel production levels herein can be interpreted as
0
the minimum amount of biofuels necessary to achieve a two 4DS 4DS 2DS 4DS 2DS 2DS
degree transportation scenario (2DS) after all other strate- 2010 2030 2050 2075
gies are adopted. It is possible that a two-degree scenario
could be achieved with less CO2 reduction from transport (b) 16.0

and more from other sectors; this could lead to reductions 14.0
in biofuels, but would more likely result mainly in a slowing
12.0
in the rate of electricity and hydrogen uptake, since these are Water
among the most expensive options. In any case, we present 10.0
Air
Gt CO2

scenario details to better illuminate the role of biofuels in 8.0 Rail

this scenario. Freight trucks
6.0
Buses
4.0 23 wheelers
Energy use and CO2 emissions
2.0 PLDVs
Whereas transport energy use nearly doubles by 2050 in the
0.0
4DS, demand remains roughly constant in the 2DS. (Fig. 4DS 4DS 2DS 4DS 2DS 2DS
2(a)). Well-to-wheel transport CO2 emissions (Fig.2(b)) rise 2010 2030 2050 2075
from 8 Gt in 2010 to nearly 13 Gt in 2050 in the 4DS, but
instead drop by 25% to about 6 Gt in the 2DS, and further Figure 2. (a) Energy use by scenario and mode. (b) CO2
decrease to just over 2 Gt in 2075, if total energy system net emissions by scenario and mode (well-to-wheel).

2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. (2015); DOI: 10.1002/bbb 3

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 LM Fulton et al. Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future

50

45

40

35 Electricity

30 Hydrogen
CNG/LPG
EJ

25
GTL/CTL
20
Biofuel
15
Kerosene
10
HFO
5
Diesel
0 Gasoline
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
2010
2030
2050
2075
PLDV Bus Rail Air Road freight Rail Water

Passenger transport Freight transport

Note: CNG/LPG = compressed natural gas/liquid petroleum gas, GTL/CTL = gas-to-liquid/coal-to-liquid, HFO = heavy fuel oil.

Figure 3. Global energy use in 2DS by mode and energy carrier, selected years.

120 12
emissions are to reach zero by 2075.1 While travel shifts and
especially efficiency improvements are important to 2050,
100 10
the changes between 2050 and 2075 mostly reflect ongoing Electricity
shifts to electricity, hydrogen and biofuels along with on- Hydrogen
80 8
going decarbonization of these fuels. CNG/LPG
Figure 3 presents a breakdown for the energy provided by GT CO2 GTL/CTL
EJ

60 6
various fuels and energy carriers as a function of transporta- Biofuel
tion mode and time for the 2DS. The combined contribution Kerosene
40 4
of electricity and hydrogen in 2075 is quite high: 80% for HFO
PLDV, 70% for busses, 100% for rail, and 50% for road freight. Diesel
20 2
Notwithstanding the very large contribution of electricity Gasoline
and hydrogen depicted in Fig. 3, the aggregate contribution 2DS Emissions
0 0
of biofuels is substantial (Fig. 4). By 2075, biofuels provide 2010 2030 2050 2075
100% of aviation fuel, nearly three-quarters of shipping All modes
fuel, and over a third of fuel for road freight (trucks). Out of
a transportation sector total of 103 EJ for the 2DS in 2075, Figure 4. Transport energy use by fuel and year, displaced
biofuels are the largest contributor at 43 EJ or about 42%. CO2 emissions by fuel and year, and total CO2 emissions
If this gap were made up by a mix of fossil fuels similar to from all sectors for the 2DS.
that otherwise still used in the 2DS, those fuels would emit
approximately 4GT of carbon over and above the 2.5 GT account for about 20% of transport energy in 2050 and
emissions in the 2DS scenario from transport. about half in 2075. Thus about 80% of transport energy in
Even with aggressive reductions in travel growth, shifts 2050 and 50% in 2075 remain to be decarbonized.
to mass transport modes, strong efficiency improvements This low-carbon transport gap arises because the techni-
and deep market penetration by energy carriers other than cal and economic challenges associated with use of electric-
biofuels, direct use of electricity and the use of hydrogen ity and hydrogen are greater for some transport applica-
tions than others. Light duty passenger vehicles and trains
1
Negative emissions occur from using biomass-derived electricity are the easiest targets for these low-carbon energy carriers
together with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power sector. while buses and urban freight trucks may also be amenable,

4 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. (2015); DOI: 10.1002/bbb

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 Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future LM Fulton et al.

given relatively short distances travelled per day (buses led many analysts to conclude that hydrogen is not cur-
have been an attractive mode for testing fuel cell systems). rently a serious fuel for medium-to-long haul aircraft,4,5
Long-haul trucks are much more challenging, given their which account for the vast majority of aviation fuel use.
typically very high daily driving levels and the need to In contrast, premium drop-in biofuels for planes already
store the respective low carbon energy under weight and exist and have been shown to provide performance equal
volume restrictions. For the same reason ocean shipping to petroleum jet fuel. In addition, they require no equip-
and planes appear likely to be the hardest to decarbonize. ment modifications, though the biofuels themselves may
be expensive, at least in the near-to-medium term.
Discussion Hydrogen appears more viable for use in ships than in
aircraft, given the possibility of storing large amounts
Will so much energy-dense liquid fuel really be needed of liquid hydrogen without major compromises to ship
in 2050 and 2075 in a very low carbon transport sys- functionality. Hydrogen would most likely be used
tem? There are certainly a number of technological with solid oxide fuel cells to generate electricity to turn
breakthroughs that could change this picture. Much propellers. These are efficient though expensive, and still
higher energy density batteries (or other storage systems) in development.6 A major obstacle here is cost ships cur-
could be a game changer, for example allowing long-haul rently use very cost-effective diesel engines with low-cost
electrified trucks. But energy densities would have to residual and marine diesel oil. Replacing such a system
improve by nearly an order of magnitude to match the with a hydrogen/fuel cell system for the sake of CO2 emis-
long-haul capabilities of diesel fuel and diesel engine pow- sions could be extremely costly on a dollar per tonne CO2
ered trucks of today, and recharging these high capacity basis. In contrast, biofuels can be used to replace residual
batteries within acceptable time limits also poses a seri- fuel oil using relatively simple conversion technology (e.g.
ous technological problem. Similarly, even with liquid pyrolysis) and only minor (if any) engine modifications.7
(cryogenic) hydrogen storage, fuel cell trucks would need How do the IEA transport scenarios compare to other
at least triple storage volume capabilities to meet current studies? Another recent energy futures study, the Global
long haul trucking ranges. Another possible innovation Energy Assessment,8 projects fractions of transportation
is electrified roadways, either using induction charging energy provided by liquid hydrocarbons in 2050 that are
in roadbeds or catenary systems (overhead electrical lines very similar to the IEA projections. In particular, the IEA
tethered to trucks). But fully developing such systems and GEA studies both feature substantial biofuel use in
would require large infrastructure investments.3 Inductive trucks, ships and aircraft by mid-century. Dale et al.11
wireless dynamic charging on roadways is in a rela- recently compiled results from five global low-carbon
tively early stage of research and development, and is not energy studies for 2050, included in addition to the IEA
expected to play a significant role for at least 12 decades. and GEA studies, scenarios developed by ECOFYS/World
Without new technology breakthroughs, it appears very Wild Life Fund, and data drawn from the IPCC 5th
unlikely that battery electricity will play a major role for assessment. Bioenergy averaged 25% of primary energy
ships and aircrafts, given range and power requirements. supply in these studies, and all anticipate a need for liquid
Hydrogen could however provide adequate characteristics biofuels. In contrast, Jacobson and Delucchi,9,10 project an
for at least some types of shipping and aircraft. For air- energy system that is eventually 100% supplied by wind,
craft, hydrogen would likely need to be stored as a liquid water and solar power. They argue that the technical and
and used with jet engines. For ships, it could be liquefied cost barriers preventing electricity and hydrogen from
or pressurized and would likely be used with fuel cell sys- widespread use in all modes can be overcome. However,
tems and electric engines. The weight (mass) of hydrogen they do not present a detailed examination of the complex
required to deliver a given amount of energy is less than issues associated with using (and transitioning to) these
half that of liquid petroleum fuels like kerosene, a particu- energy carriers for trucks, ships or aircraft.
lar advantage for aircraft.4 However, since the volumetric Regarding the potential for biofuels to meet the energy
energy storage density of liquid hydrogen is much lower requirements in these scenarios, a recent comprehen-
(about 75%) than the energy density of jet fuel, radical sive review by Creutzig et al.12 finds high agreement for
aircraft redesign would be needed to accommodate fuel a technical potential of bioenergy up to 100EJ, medium
tanks up to four times larger for a similar range (or aircraft agreement for a potential between 100 and 300 EJ, and low
ranges would need to be greatly reduced). The major com- agreement above 300 EJ. These values are large relative
promises in aircraft performance this would entail have to the ~40 EJ low carbon transport gap in the ETP 2012

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 LM Fulton et al. Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future

scenario. However, the technical potential for bioenergy to range of transportation applications, simultaneous aggres-
be produced on this scale in a sustainable manner does not sive technology development and deployment strategies
mean that this will necessarily occur. for sustainable, low-carbon biofuels alongside these other
As with electricity and hydrogen, scaling up use of fuel options is the only responsible path.
transport biofuels entails tremendous challenges. While Much has been written about the risks of large-scale
end-use and distribution infrastructure are smaller obsta- production of biofuels in ways that are not sustainable.
cles for biofuels than for hydrogen or electricity and bat- Our analysis highlights a second risk: that sufficient
teries, biofuels face distinctive challenges related to scale, sustainable biofuel production will not happen and as
feedstock supply, issues related to land-use, and policies a result a low-carbon energy future will be harder to
required to ensure sustainable production. Yet with new achieve. Preoccupation with the fi rst risk could result in
discoveries of fossil hydrocarbon resources reducing pres- constraining the growth of all biofuels, exacerbating the
sure on the supply side, closing the low carbon transport second risk. Preoccupation with the second risk could
gap identified herein is made more difficult and there is result in advancement of unsustainable biofuels, exacer-
a substantial risk that it may not happen. Clearly, taking bating the first risk. A policy balance is needed that targets
biofuels off the table increases this risk. aggressive development and deployment of sustainable
biofuels. In this context, it is desirable to avoid pendulum
Conclusions and policy implications swings between being too permissive to too restrictive.
Biofuels policy must take a realistic view toward the likely
Achieving deep CO2 reductions in the transportation sec-
need for large volumes of sustainable, low-CO2 biofuels
tor will require a shift to very low-carbon energy carriers,
for transportation. This means developing policies that
of which the three most likely to play a prominent role
tilt the table toward land use practices that achieve envi-
are electricity, hydrogen and biofuels. Even with aggres-
ronmental and social benefits, and away from those that
sive reductions in travel growth, shifts to mass transport
do not. Establishing robust and internationally accepted
modes, strong efficiency improvements and deep market
methodologies to quantify life cycle greenhouse gas emis-
penetration by energy carriers other than biofuels, elec-
sions of biofuels as well as developing international codes
tricity and hydrogen are anticipated to account for about
and standards related to sustainable production practices
20% of transport energy in 2050 and about half in 2075
are important steps towards a global policy framework to
under an ambitious carbon mitigation scenario. Thus
incentivise sustainable biofuel production and discourage
about 80% of transport energy in 2050 and 50% in 2075
negative land-use change and food security related effects
remain to be decarbonized.
at the same time.
This lowcarbon transport gap arises because the
Development of low-cost technology for processing cel-
technical and economic challenges associated with use of
lulosic biomass remains a critical and as yet unrealized
electricity and hydrogen are greater for some transport
goal, although progress is being made. Accelerating such
applications than others. Light duty passenger vehicles
development is an important objective for research, devel-
and trains are most easily powered by low carbon energy
opment, and demonstration with governments playing
carriers other than biofuels, urban freight trucks are more
an important role for some time to come. Finally, link-
challenging but likely doable. Long-haul trucks are much
ing low-cost technology for making reactive intermedi-
more challenging, and ocean shipping and aviation are
ates from cellulosic biomass with production of the full
the most challenging of all. The underlying reason for this
range of fuel molecules, particularly middle distillate type
ranking is simple and unlikely to change: Energy storage
fuels for heavier, long-distance transport modes, is an
is more difficult, less space-efficient, and more expensive
importantobjective.
for electricity and hydrogen compared to liquid hydrocar-
bons, and this becomes a greater liability as weight and
distance travelled increase. Acknowledgements
Acknowledging the significant uncertainties involved in Lee Lynd was partially supported by the So Paulo
such projections and the challenges faced by all candidate Research Foundation (FAPESP) BIOEN program through
technologies and fuels, we conclude that it will likely be the Global Sustainable Bioenergy Project (grant #
difficult to achieve a low-carbon transport sector without 2012/11269-8), and by the US Department of Energy Office
widespread use of biofuels. Until the feasibility and viabil- of Biological and Environmental Research through the
ity of other fuel options becomes established over the full Bioenergy Science Center (DE-AC05-00OR22725).

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References Lewis M. Fulton

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8. Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. Lee Rybeck Lynd is the Paul and Joan
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 LM Fulton et al. Spotlight: The Need for Biofuels as Part of a Low Carbon Energy Future

Nathanael Greene Luke Tonachel

Nathanael Greene is the director Luke Tonachel is the Director of the
of renewable energy policy and is Clean Vehicles and Fuels team and a
responsible for coordinating NRDCs senior analyst for the Natural Resourc-
work on renewable fuels and power. es Defense Council (NRDC). Since
NRDC aims to quickly and dramatically joining NRDC in 2004, his focus has
expand the use of renewable energy in been on reducing the environmental
the most sustainable and cost-effective impacts of the worlds transporta-
way. Nathanael joined NRDC in 1992 after receiving his tion demands by advocating for policies that develop
Bachelor of Arts Degree in Public Policy from Brown Uni- and commercialize cleaner, more efficient vehicles and
versity. He worked two years before getting a Master of non-petroleum fuels. Mr. Tonachel has authored and
Science Degree in Energy and Resources from University contributed to numerous nationally-recognized reports
of California Berkeley and returned to NRDC in 1996. and analyses covering vehicle electrification, improved
He has worked there since. He has particular expertise vehicle efficiency and other oil and emissions reduction
in clean energy technologies including wind, solar and opportunities. Mr. Tonachel holds a bachelors degree in
biomass energy, fuel cells, combined heat and power mechanical engineering from the University of Rochester.
and energy efficiency and in regulations and policies to He gained hands-on experience with energy systems
promote these technologies. For the last decade he has and propulsion plants as an engineering officer while
been focusing on assessing the sustainable potential serving aboard a cruiser in the United States Navy. After
for biofuels and biopower and developing policies to the Navy, Mr. Tonachel developed business skills as a
advance them. software product manager and then returned to school,
receiving his Masters in Public Policy from University of
California, Berkeley in 2004.

8 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. (2015); DOI: 10.1002/bbb

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