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    Tesla Forecast

    Uploaded by

    DanikaLi
    This document contains Tesla's projected balance sheet and income statement for years 0-5. Key highlights include: - Revenues are projected to grow from $7B in year 0 to $55B in year 5, driven by increasing vehicle sales and higher average sales prices. - Gross margins are expected to improve from 22.5% in year 0 to 27% by years 2-5 as production scales up. - R&D spending as a percentage of revenue is projected to decline from 12% to 4% as development costs decrease over time. - Net income is expected to turn positive in years 2-5, reaching $5B in year 5. - Total assets are forecasted to grow

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Tesla Forecast

    Uploaded by

    DanikaLi
    148 views6 pages
    This document contains Tesla's projected balance sheet and income statement for years 0-5. Key highlights include: - Revenues are projected to grow from $7B in year 0 to $55B in year 5, driven by increasing vehicle sales and higher average sales prices. - Gross margins are expected to improve from 22.5% in year 0 to 27% by years 2-5 as production scales up. - R&D spending as a percentage of revenue is projected to decline from 12% to 4% as development costs decrease over time. - Net income is expected to turn positive in years 2-5, reaching $5B in year 5. - Total assets are forecasted to grow

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    Tesla financial forecast

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    This document contains Tesla's projected balance sheet and income statement for years 0-5. Key highlights include: - Revenues are projected to grow from $7B in year 0 to $55B in year 5, driven by increasing vehicle sales and higher average sales prices. - Gross margins are expected to improve from 22.5% in year 0 to 27% by years 2-5 as production scales up. - R&D spending as a percentage of revenue is projected to decline from 12% to 4% as development costs decrease over time. - Net income is expected to turn positive in years 2-5, reaching $5B in year 5. - Total assets are forecasted to grow

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    148 views6 pages

    Tesla Forecast

    Uploaded by

    DanikaLi
    This document contains Tesla's projected balance sheet and income statement for years 0-5. Key highlights include: - Revenues are projected to grow from $7B in year 0 to $55B in year 5, driven by increasing vehicle sales and higher average sales prices. - Gross margins are expected to improve from 22.5% in year 0 to 27% by years 2-5 as production scales up. - R&D spending as a percentage of revenue is projected to decline from 12% to 4% as development costs decrease over time. - Net income is expected to turn positive in years 2-5, reaching $5B in year 5. - Total assets are forecasted to grow

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 6

    TESLA -- TSLA US Eq

    BALANCE SHEET
    Yr 0 A Yr 1 E
    ASSETS
    Cash & ST Investments 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000
    % of revenue 50.00% 50.00%
    Inventories 2,070,000,000 3,179,816,850
    % of COGS 46.21% 40.36%
    Total Current Assets 5,570,000,000 6,679,816,850

    Property, Plan & Equipment -- Gross 16,050,000,000 24,377,210,371


    Accumulated Depreciation 1,020,000,000 2,128,060,432
    Net PP&E 15,030,000,000 22,249,149,939
    % of revenue 215% 181%
    TOTAL ASSETS 20,600,000,000 28,928,966,790

    LIABILITIES
    ST Debt & Current Portion LT Debt 1,210,000,000 1,451,091,273
    Total Current Liabilities 1,210,000,000 1,451,091,273

    Long-Term Debt 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000


    Necessary to Finance - 8,087,875,517
    Other liabilities 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000
    Total Liabilities 14,690,000,000 23,018,966,790

    Total Equity 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000


    LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 20,600,000,000 28,928,966,790

    NECESSARY TO FINANCE - (0)

    INCOME STATEMENT
    Yr 0 A Yr 1 E
    Car Unit Sales
    - Model S 50,945 56,040
    - Model X 32,325 42,023
    - Model 3 - 50,000
    Sales Grow Rate
    - Model S 10%
    - Model X 30%
    - Model 3
    ASP by Model
    - Model S 95,000 97,850
    - Model X 100,000 103,000
    - Model 3 - 50,000

    Sales/Revenue 7,000,000,000 12,311,782,575


    COGS Excluding D&A 4,480,000,000 7,879,540,848
    % of revenue 64% 64%
    Depreciation & Amortization Expense 947,100,000 1,108,060,432
    Total COGS 5,427,100,000 8,987,601,280
    Gross Margin 1,572,900,000 3,324,181,295
    Gross margin % 22.47% 27.00%
    Research & Development 834,410,000 1,273,055,907
    % of revenue 11.92% 10.34%
    Other SG&A 1,410,000,000 2,230,261,825
    % of revenue 20.14% 18.11%
    Unusual Expense (74,030,000) -
    % of revenue 1.06%
    EBIT After Unusual Expense (597,480,000) (179,136,436)
    Non-operating Income/Expense 60,450,000 -
    % of revenue 0.86%
    Pretax Income (657,930,000) (179,136,436)
    Income Tax 26,700,000 (53,740,931)
    % of revenue 0.38% 0.38%
    Net Income (26,700,000) (125,395,506)

    EBITDA 349,620,000 928,923,995

    Shares outstanding 162,000,000 162,000,000


    EPS (0.16) (0.77)

    Consensus EPS estimates (7.12)


    TSLA US Equity
    BALANCE SHEET
    Yr 2 E Yr 3 E Yr 4 E Yr 5 E

    3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000


    50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
    4,729,552,613 6,142,483,482 6,722,299,511 5,954,835,365
    34.51% 28.66% 22.81% 16.96%
    8,229,552,613 9,642,483,482 10,222,299,511 9,454,835,365

    35,476,999,184 44,821,722,999 47,469,033,912 40,691,426,125


    4,055,567,901 7,069,966,693 11,215,147,857 16,153,992,354
    31,421,431,283 37,751,756,306 36,253,886,054 24,537,433,771
    147% 113% 79% 45%
    39,650,983,896 47,394,239,788 46,476,185,565 33,992,269,136

    1,787,748,413 2,094,686,717 2,220,643,161 2,053,922,943


    1,787,748,413 2,094,686,717 2,220,643,161 2,053,922,943

    7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000 7,390,000,000


    18,473,235,483 25,909,553,071 24,865,542,404 12,548,346,193
    6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000 6,090,000,000
    33,740,983,896 41,484,239,788 40,566,185,565 28,082,269,136

    5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000 5,910,000,000


    39,650,983,896 47,394,239,788 46,476,185,565 33,992,269,136

    (0) 0 (0) (0)

    COME STATEMENT
    Yr 2 E Yr 3 E Yr 4 E Yr 5 E

    61,643 64,726 67,962 71,360


    46,225 50,847 53,390 56,059
    200,000 400,000 600,000 720,000

    10% 5% 5% 5%
    10% 10% 5% 5%
    300% 100% 50% 20%

    100,786 103,809 106,923 110,131


    106,090 109,273 112,551 115,927
    51,500 53,045 54,636 56,275

    21,416,749,657 33,493,319,917 46,057,568,490 54,876,049,967


    13,706,719,781 21,435,724,747 29,476,843,833 35,120,671,979
    64% 64% 64% 64%
    1,927,507,469 3,014,398,792 4,145,181,164 4,938,844,497
    15,634,227,250 24,450,123,539 33,622,024,997 40,059,516,476
    5,782,522,408 9,043,196,377 12,435,543,492 14,816,533,491
    27.00% 27.00% 27.00% 27.00%
    1,876,137,865 2,404,868,218 2,579,289,632 2,206,095,603
    8.76% 7.18% 5.60% 4.02%
    3,445,281,922 4,708,777,999 5,541,120,268 5,489,172,884
    16.09% 14.06% 12.03% 10.00%
    - - - -

    461,102,620 1,929,550,160 4,315,133,592 7,121,265,004


    - - - -
    13%
    461,102,620 1,929,550,160 4,315,133,592 7,121,265,004
    138,330,786 578,865,048 1,294,540,078 2,136,379,501
    0.38% 0.38% 0.38% 3.89%
    322,771,834 1,350,685,112 3,020,593,514 4,984,885,503

    2,388,610,089 4,943,948,953 8,460,314,756 12,060,109,501

    162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000


    1.99 8.34 18.65 30.77

    0.93 4.30 9.73 19.46


    Key Assumptions
    Annual depreciation % 9%
    Future R&D/Revenue 4.2%
    Future COGS/Revenue 67.3%
    Future SG&A/Revenue 9.7%
    Tax rate 30%
    Future Inventory/COGS 17%
    ASP Growth Rate 3%
    Future Net PP&E/Revenue 47.2%
    Revenue YOY Change: 386% 59% 27% 73%
    YOY Change diff: 46%
    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    COGS (no DA) % of Rev: 86% 72% 65% 66% 64%
    COGS-DA YOY Change Diff -16% -10% 2% -4%

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