Najmus Sahar Sayed Gazia Sayed
Najmus Sahar Sayed Gazia Sayed
Najmus Sahar Sayed Gazia Sayed
Abstract : The banking industry in India has a huge canvas of history, which
covers the traditional banking practices right from nationalization to privatization
of banks and now to multinational banks in India. Therefore, Banking in India has
been through a long journey. Banking industry in India has also achieved a new
height with the changing times. The use of technology has brought a revolution
in the working style of the banks. However, with the changing dynamics, banking
business has brought a new kind of risk exposure. Majority of the banks are
successful in keeping with the confidence of the shareholders as well as other
stakeholders but not all the banks are able to live up to the expectation of the
shareholders. In order to grow and gain the faith of shareholders, organizations
should try to improve the long-term financial performance and create wealth for
the shareholders.
JEL CODES
Keywords : MVA, Net Income Margin, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Dividend
Pay/Out Ratio, PAT, ROA, ROE, ROCE, RONW, Dividend Yield and NPA
INTRODUCTION
Banks play a vital role in the economic development of a country; their
performance undertakes or determines the pace of development of economy.
Mostly they engage in the money transactions including accepting deposits from
the customers and lending them to the needy ones in the form of loans. The last
2 decade witnessed many positive developments in the Indian banking sector,
especially after arrivals of Private Banks. Some banks established an outstanding
track record of innovation, growth and value creation. The recent global financial
crisis has triggered fall of many economies, contributed by financial losses and
large nonperformance assets in banking sector. The banking sector in India
emerged largely unscathed from the global financial crisis of 2007-08, but
Value Based Management (VBM) has been referred to as the fastest and
hottest ticket to shareholders wealth. Value Based Management is a complete
financial management and incentive compensation system that guides decision
making at every level and includes techniques like Economic Value Added (EVA),
Return on Operating Invested Capital (ROIC) and Market Value Added (MVA).
Companies use VBM as a guide in financial planning, monitoring and controlling
operations. Shareholder value creation is represented by the difference between the
market value of the firms equity and the equity capital invested by shareholders.
Market Value Added (MVA) is the difference between the current market
value of a firm and the capital contributed by investors. The market value added
measurement shows the net difference between a companys market value and
Computation
With the simplifying assumption that market and book value of debt are
equal, this is the same as
Although conditions have improved since the beginning of the last financial
year, the global environment is likely to continue to be an area of concern. Though,
the Indian financial sector (including banks, non-banking financial companies, or
NBFCs, and housing finance companies, or HFCs) reported a compounded annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 19% over the last three years and their credit portfolio
stood at close to Rs.49 trillion (around 62% of 2010-11 GDP) as on March 31, 2011
(ICRA Research report, June 2011), Indian banks still face several challenges, such
as increase in interest rates on saving deposits, possible deregulation of interest
rates on saving deposits, a tighter monetary policy, a large government deficit,
increased stress in some sectors (such as, State utilities, airlines, and microfinance),
restructured loan accounts, unamortized pension/gratuity liabilities, increasing
infrastructure loans, and implementation of Basel III.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Many researchers have studied MVA from different views and in different
contexts. The following are very interesting and useful for our research. Stewart
(1991) was the first person who studied the relationship between EVA and
shareholder wealth with market data of 618 U.S companies and presented the
results in his book The quest for value. He stated that EVA and MVA correspond
with each other quite well among selected U.S companies. The study provided the
first empirical evidence of EVAs potential as a proxy for MVA and reported a R2
of 0.97 between changes in EVA and changes in MVA for 25 groupings of firms
over the period 1987-88.
KPMG-BS Study (1998) assessed top companies on EVA, sales, PAT (Profit
after Tax), and MVA criteria. The survey has used the BSE 1000 list of companies
using a composite index comprising sales, profitability and compounded annual
growth rate of those companies covering the period 1996-97. Sixty companies have
been found able to create positive shareholder value whereas 38 companies have
been found to destroy it. Accounting numbers have failed to capture shareholder
value creation or destruction as per the findings of the study. 24 companies have
destroyed shareholder value by reporting negative MVA.
All the above studies provide us a solid base and give us idea regarding
value based management and its components. While there has been enough
research on EVA and profitabilitys ratio, there is a dearth of literature and research
on MVA as a tool for evaluating the creation of shareholders wealth. Thus taking
into consideration the importance of MVA and the growth of banking industry,
the research will help to understand that whether Indian banks are adding or
destroying the shareholders wealth. This research will also help in formulating a
regression model, which will help in understanding the factors on which MVA is
dependent on.
RESEARCH DESIGN
The study is done on the data available from the annual reports of the
companies. Tabular analysis techniques employed are: Ratios, Percentages and
Regression Analysis. MVA is computed for the 37 banks listed on Bombay Stock
Exchange. The regression analysis is done through SPSS software.
Data Collection
This study is based on the secondary data. For the purpose of present study
the data is collected from the annual reports of the selected banks, Ace Equity
software, research journals, business magazines, various financial dailies, reports,
websites etc.
Sample Selection
The analysis of MVA is done for the 37 banks, of which 15 are private
sector banks and 22 are public sector banks. The data used in the study relate to
the banks which are listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange 2012.
Period of study
The data collected for computing MVA and the regression model pertains
to a period of 10 years i.e. 2003 to 2012.
Selection of variables
In the present study, a number of key financial variables have been identified
for the purpose of analysis like, Yield on Advances, Yield on investments, Net
Income Margin, CAR, Dividend Pay/Out Ratio, PATM, Cash Profit Margin, ROA,
ROE, ROCE, RONW, Dividend Yield and Net NPAs to Net Advances.
MVA is one of the external indicators which give the utmost satisfaction to
the investors. From the investors perspective, increase of the share price is always
desirable. The most reliable measure of a managements long term success in
adding value is known as Market Value Added (MVA). MVA is the best internal
performance indicator as it indicates the market assessment of the effectiveness
with which companies managers have used the scare resources under their control.
Hence, it turns out to be very significant and important to analyze and identify the
internal indicators that relate well with MVA.
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Multiple Regression Analysis has been carried out to explore the extend of
relationship existed among dependent variable and independent variables incase
of selected banks and also to find out whether a particular independent variable
emerges as the most explanatory variable. MVA is taken as the dependent variable
and different ratios like YieldonAdvances, Yieldoninvestments, Dividend Yield,
ROCE, RONW, PATM, CPM, Dividend Pay/Out Ratio, NIM, ROA, ROE, CAR
and NetNPAstoNetAdvancesare taken as the independent variables.
1. The results of Table 2.1 show a positive auto correlation as per the
result of Durbin Waston model. It is also evident from the table that the values
of correlation co-efficient are coming down and that of the adjusted R-Square
are going up. In the 6th model the estimated standard error is also minimum.
This shows that NetNPAtoNet Advances, ROCE, RONW, ROA,NIM,
Dividendpayout,Dividendyield and PATM are the best determinants of MVA. The
Durbin-Watson model testifies the positive auto-correlation in the variables as the
value is less than 2.
2. The results of Table 2.2 present the result of ANOVA analysis. The
F-statistics shows that the value of the residual is minimum in the 6th model. The
P value of model 6th is 0.000, which is less than 0.05. It indicates that the model
is significant.
3. Table 2.3 is used to find the most explanatory independent variable or set
of variables of MVA. Tested with t-statistics, the Table 2.3 brings out that RONW
is found significant if tested at 7.6 per cent level, ROCE is found significant if
Great Lakes Herald Vol 9 , No 1 , March 2015 Page27
tested at 6.3 per cent level, NetNPAtoNetAdvances is found significant if tested
at 4.1 per cent level. Whereas NIM and ROA are quite significant if tested at 1
percent level of significant but PATM, Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio
are observed to be significant even at 0.5 percent level of significant.
4. The overall observation shows that out of the eight important variables
NIM, ROA, PATM, Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio are the very
important variables. Moreover, among these very important variables, PATM,
Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio are the most important variables
wherein PATM stands on second position and Dividend Yield and Dividend
Payout Ratio are the best one.
5. As PATM, Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio are the most
important variables to determine the Market Value Added, it is concluded that
wealth creation in banking industry is strongly influenced by the amount of
dividends paid by the company or by the ability to pay the dividend.
Regression Model
Using the multiple regression model the Market Value Added for the Indian
Banks will be as follows:
where: x1is RONW, x2is ROCE, x3is Net NPA to Net Advances, x4is NIM,x5is
ROA,x6is PATM,x7is Dividend Yield,x8is Dividend Payout.
CONCLUSION
An attempt has been made in this study to compute MVA for the Indian
banks and also to find out the relationship between MVA and other independent
variables like Yield on Advances, Yield on investments, Net Income Margin,
CAR, Dividend Pay/Out Ratio, PATM, Cash Profit Margin, ROA, ROE, ROCE,
RONW, Dividend Yield and Net NPAs to Net Advances. MVA analysis shows that
in most of the years under study, wealth reduction has been observed mainly in
case of public sector banks. Multiple regression analysis using backward method
has been adopted in order to explore the extent of relationship between dependent
and independent variables. The Durbin-Watson model exhibits a positive auto-
correlation among the variables. Three most important variables namely, PATM,
Dividend Yield and Dividend Pay/Out Ratio remained after the least predictors
Great Lakes Herald Vol 9 , No 1 , March 2015 Page28
got eliminated. Dividend Yield and Dividend Pay/Out Ratio stands in high merit
as per the overall analysis. This implies that wealth creation is strongly influenced
by the returns provided to the shareholders. If a company fails to give returns i.e.
dividends to the shareholders, it causes wealth deterioration. Finally, it can be
concluded that MVA, the best indicator of wealth is influenced by Dividend paid
by the Indian banks to the shareholders.
SUMMARY
The Indian banking system is different from other global peers because
of the countrys unique geographic, social, and economic characteristics.
Undoubtedly the banking industry went through a tough phase with bad loans
expanding, the health of the economy deteriorating amidst subdued credit growth.
While, the Indian banking system has managed to remain relatively unaffected
from global economic conditions until now, it will be difficult to project that the
sector will be unscathed in the long run too, despite the support of a robust financial
system. The economic recovery in Europe and the US is sluggish, which is a major
concern for the rest of the world, including India. Besides, the rise in borrowings
by the Indian government might drain funds from the private credit market. Banks
will need to increase their capital to achieve growth and comply with Basel III
norms. In a scenario where the cost of borrowing is high and government support
is limited due to tighter economic conditions, banks will have to be very effective
in operations in order to provide high returns to shareholders.
G. Bennett Stewart, The Quest for Value : A Guide for Senior Managers,
HarperCollins, 1991
Page31
Table: 2.1 MVA and other independent variables : Durbin Watson
Model Summary