Forest Economics
Forest Economics
Forest Economics
Index / 380
FIGURES
1.1 A forest’s economic value / 7
2.1 Relationship between output and inputs / 29
2.2 Isocost curve for capital and labour / 31
2.3 Expansion path of efficient input combinations / 32
3.1 Decision tree for a pest control project / 79
3.2 Correct and incorrect match of interest rate and timber price in forest
investment analysis / 82
3.3 Value of a pre-merchantable loblolly pine timber stand / 91
4.1 Market supply, demand, and net value of a forest product / 104
4.2 Relative elasticity and welfare change resulting from an increase in
supply / 108
4.3 Linkage among stumpage, log, and forest products markets / 110
4.4 Prices for softwood lumber, sawlogs, and sawtimber stumpage in the
southern United States, 1955-2001 / 111
4.5 Derived demand for pulpwood in newsprint production / 117
4.6 Timber demand and supply in the short and long run / 124
4.7 Long-run supply response when demand shifts upward / 127
4.8 Relationship between net value of timber and economically recoverable
inventory / 130
4.9 Long-run timber supply projection / 132
11.1 Effect of a royalty or severance tax on the range of log quality that can
be profitably harvested / 314
11.2 The relative burden of tax / 323
12.1 Global export volume of different forest products, 1970-2006 / 335
12.2 Determination of price and quantity of plywood to be imported and
exported / 340
12.3 US outward and inward foreign direct investment in the forest industry
in constant 2000 US$, 1983-2008 / 351
12.4 Canadian outward and inward foreign direct investment in the forest
industry in constant 2000 CND$, 1983-2008 / 351
13.1 The Environmental Kuznets Curve / 361
13.2 Direct and underlying causes of tropical deforestation / 364
TABLES
3.1 Derivation of continuous compounding / 62
3.2 Comparison of investment projects using alternative evaluation
criteria / 68
3.3 Annual rates of return for the NCREIF timberland index, S&P 500
index, and US government bonds, as well as annual rates of inflation,
1987-2007 / 73
3.4 Descriptive statistics for variables used in a hedonic study of
pre-merchantable timber stands in southwestern Alabama / 85
3.5 Regression results using ln(price/acre) as the dependent variable / 86
4.1 Forest industry’s contribution to gross state or provincial
product, 2005 / 112
5.1 Visitation data for a recreational site and total visits per year with
simulated increases in travel cost / 154
7.1 Value and costs of growing a forest to various harvesting ages / 200
7.2 Faustmann formula in discrete and continuous formats / 208
8.1 Values generated under alternative harvest schedules / 234
10.1 Characteristics of the typical forms of forest tenure / 291
11.1 Common forms of levies on forest resources / 306
Sample Material ©
xv 2011 UBC Press
xvi Foreword
Clark S. Binkley
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Sample Material ©
xvii 2011 UBC Press
xviii Preface
Daowei Zhang
Peter H. Pearse
Length
1 inch = 2.54 centimetres
1 foot = 12 inches = 0.3048 metres
1 mile = 5,280 feet = 1,609.3 metres
1 chain = 66 feet
Area
1 square foot = 0.0929 square metres
1 acre = 43,560 square feet = 0.4047 hectares
1 acre = 10 square chains
Volume
1 cubic foot = 0.028317 cubic metres
1 cubic metre = 35.313378 cubic feet
Weight
1 pound = 0.4536 kilograms
1 short ton = 907.1848 kilograms = 0.90718 metric tons = 2,000 pounds
1 long ton = 1,016 kilograms = 1.016 metric tons = 2,240 pounds
* A cord is a stack of wood 8 feet long, 4 feet wide, and 4 feet tall (or 128 cubic
feet). On average, a cord contains about 80 cubic feet of wood, but a cord of
southern pine timber contains 72 cubic feet of wood. Thus, species and log sizes
affect the amount of wood in a cord and its conversion factor to cubic metres.
** A board foot is a piece of wood 1 foot × 1 foot × 1 inch, squared in all three di-
mensions. Because logs are circular and tapered, the quantity of wood they con-
people’s wants are satisfied, the better off they are and, since no society
has ever been known to be fully satisfied, welfare is always a matter of
degree. It is important to note that people’s wants extend beyond strictly
private desires to collective or public concerns about economic security,
equity, and freedom.
On the other hand, any society has a limited capacity to produce the
goods and services that will satisfy these wants. The wherewithal to pro-
duce these consists of natural resources (or natural capital); human-
made capital such as machines, roads, and other infrastructure; labour;
and technical knowledge. All of these change over time, but at any point
in time they are finite.
The function of the economic process is to determine how these lim-
ited resources are used to satisfy some of the unlimited human wants.
Thus, economics is the study of how scarce resources are allocated
among competing uses.
Every society must deal with three fundamental economic questions.
Given its limited endowment of productive resources and the unlimited
wants that they must serve, a society must somehow make decisions
about:
• which goods and services, of the almost infinite variety that it is tech-
nically possible to produce with these resources, will actually get pro-
duced, and in what quantities
• which of the variety of technically possible ways of producing each
good and service will be adopted in each case
• how the goods and services produced will be distributed among mem-
bers of the society.
practised because this governs the issues that need attention. A socialist
or subsistence economy raises quite different problems from a capitalist
one. In this book, we assume the context of a mixed capitalistic economy,
except where we note otherwise.
In a typical form of “mixed capitalism,” most production is organized
and carried out by private entrepreneurs responding to market incen-
tives. Governments play an important role in regulating economic activ-
ity, however – providing a variety of services, manipulating prices and
incentives, redistributing income and wealth, and managing the general
level of economic activity.
The basic theory developed to explain how mixed capitalist econ-
omies operate is thoroughly dealt with in numerous elementary text-
books. This book is intended to build on, rather than duplicate, this
general economic theory. Accordingly, the basic principles of economics
are reviewed only briefly in the following chapters. Our emphasis is on
the particular role that forests play in the economic system and on the
economic choices faced by forest managers.
inadequately. Such things as health care, education, and the arts fall into
this category of merit goods, which have a social value exceeding their
value to individual consumers. Some governments even produce indus-
trial timber, a seemingly pure private good. More importantly, govern-
ments indirectly influence private production and consumption by
means of taxes, subsidies, and regulations. Governmental regulation of
activities ranging from marketing to safety procedures for workers af-
fects industrial structure, output, and prices. All these forms of inter-
vention that alter the way in which productive resources are allocated
and used comprise the allocative role of government.
Governments also substantially affect the distribution of wealth and
income. Taxes, government spending programs, transfers, and borrow-
ings of various kinds all redistribute income within and among socio-
economic groups, regions, and generations. Sometimes these redistri-
butional effects are deliberate and obvious, as when pensions are paid
to the elderly, but often they are subtle and indirect, requiring com-
plex analysis to trace their full impact. This is the distributive role of
government.
Finally, modern governments accept responsibility for maintaining a
stable level of economic activity. This calls for fiscal policies (spending
and revenue-collecting programs) and monetary policies (manipulation
of interest rates, exchange rates, and the supply of money) to offset
trends towards inflation or unemployment. Related to these stabiliza-
tion activities are policies for promoting economic growth and regional
development. These comprise the stabilization role of government.
By intervening in various ways, governments attempt to correct some
of the weaknesses and inadequacies of the market system. Expressed in
another way, government intervention in the form of allocative, distribu-
tive, and stabilization measures reflects efforts to improve the perform-
ance of the economy in terms of achieving the economic objectives that a
society sets for itself through the political process.
In studying the economics of forest management, we find ourselves
continually confronted with government policies aimed at influencing
the way forest resources are developed, managed, and used. The primary
objective of some of these policies is to improve efficiency by affecting
the rate and pattern of resource use. Other policies are motivated by dis-
tributional or equity considerations, or a desire to manipulate commun-
ity and regional growth. Whatever their primary purpose, all forms of
intervention inevitably have implications for all three of the fundamen-
tal forms of economic impact, namely, the allocation of resources, the
distribution of income and wealth, and economic stability and growth.
Sample Material © 2011 UBC Press
Forestry’s Economic Perspective 11
forests do not present the usual problems of choice and allocation among
competing uses that are associated with economic resources. Most for-
ests, however, are capable of yielding one or more products or services,
and so they constitute part of an economy’s total endowment of product-
ive resources. It is this economically valuable part of the total physical
stock of forest that we are concerned with in forest economics.
An economy’s total endowment of productive resources is commonly
divided into four broad categories: land, labour, capital, and entrepre-
neurship. Each of these has distinctive economic characteristics, and
each generates economic returns of a different kind, namely, rent, wages,
interest, and profit, respectively.
Forest resources fall into two of these categories. The basic resource
is the forest land, which has the same economic characteristics as agri-
cultural and other land. In any location, it is fixed in supply; it varies in
productive quality; and it generates a residual value, or rent, that varies
accordingly. The forest itself, consisting of trees on the land, falls into the
category of capital. It can be built up over time through investment in
silviculture and pest control, or it can be depleted through harvesting; it
derives its value mainly from the final goods and services that can be
produced from it; and it generates returns measured as interest. Standing
timber is capital in this economic sense regardless of whether it is a gift
of nature or a product of a long period of costly management.
Forestland and timber are economic resources because they are valu-
able in producing other final goods and services. The demand for land
and timber stems from the consumer demand for these final products,
and in this sense is a “derived” demand.
Forestland and the capital embodied in timber are part of a society’s
total endowment of productive resources that can be used in a variety of
ways to produce useful goods and services. As with other resources, the
extent to which they contribute to social welfare is governed by the effi-
ciency with which they are allocated and used.
Traditionally, forest economics has been concerned with the manage-
ment of forests for production of wood for industrial manufacture into
building materials, pulp and paper, and so on. Forests also yield other
goods and services, however, and are often managed to produce fuel
wood, livestock, fish and wildlife, recreation, and water supplies. Such
benefits are often produced in combination with industrial timber pro-
duction. Some of these values, especially recreational and environmental
benefits, are becoming increasingly important. These increasing and
overlapping demands on forest resources complicate the problem of al-
locating them among alternative uses and combinations of uses.
Sample Material © 2011 UBC Press
Forestry’s Economic Perspective 15
Moreover, as some forest values are often not priced, they are difficult
to evaluate in terms comparable with timber values, but these values are
real whether or not they are priced; the absence of price indicators only
complicates the problem of economic analysis. Later chapters address
these issues in detail.
• Forests can produce a wide variety of goods and services and com-
binations of them, some of which are not priced in markets. This gives
rise to special problems relating to the allocation of resources among
uses.
• With the exception of some tropical and temperate species, forests
typically take a long time to grow, often involving investment periods
of decades. This gives rise to special problems in investment analysis,
harvesting schedules, risks in carrying forest crops over long periods,
Sample Material © 2011 UBC Press
16 Markets, Government, and Forest Investment Analysis
and market uncertainty. It also means that forests can be altered only
slowly in response to changed economic and natural conditions.
• Forestry usually involves very high capital and carrying costs relative
to production because the slow rate of forest growth means that large
forest inventories must be carried to sustain a modest harvest. As a
result, the costs of forest production are often dominated by the
burden of carrying land and capital over time.
• Forests valued for industrial timber are both productive capital and
product. This fact distinguishes forests from other forms of capital
and gives rise to special analytical problems in selecting the best age
to harvest and in designing taxes and regulations.
• Governments often wield a heavy hand in forest management and
utilization. Partly because forest production is a long process, partly
because forests produce many goods and services that are not sold in
markets, and partly because timber harvesting and intensive forest
management often have adverse side effects, governments in various
countries have usually had more involvement in forestry than other
sectors of the economy, through public ownership, timber-harvesting
and forest practices regulations, taxation, and subsidies.
These features are not unique to forestry, but forestry illustrates them
to a unique degree. They are also issues that underlie most of the ana-
lytical problems addressed in this book.
The economic choices in forest management are constrained by the
biological capacity of the resource. Those limits, and the scope for ma-
nipulating them, are the subject of the natural science of forestry, or
silviculture. Silviculture is a specialized field of biology, just as forest
economics is a specialized field of applied economics. Whereas silvicul-
ture is concerned with all the things that can be done to manipulate the
structure and growth of forests, forest economics deals with decisions
and choices within that range of possibilities, focusing attention on their
social rather than biological implications.
Forest economics is concerned not only with silviculture but with all
aspects of forest management and forest products markets – protection,
consumption, development, harvesting, and utilization of the full range
of goods and services associated with forests. The natural science of for-
estry identifies the limits of natural systems and the range of choices
available to forest managers; this range provides the framework of nat-
ural constraints within which economic analysis can help in identifying
the social implications of alternative courses of action.
assessing the extent to which the goals of the decision maker would be
advanced by particular actions, and their costs.
The relationship between the value of the outputs and the cost of the
inputs associated with a particular activity provides a measure of the
potential net gain it can generate. Economic efficiency calls for maximiz-
ing the surplus of benefits over the cost of resources utilized, so the
greater the value of output relative to the cost of inputs, the more effi-
cient the activity is. Chapter 3 describes how alternative courses of ac-
tion can be assessed according to the efficiency criterion.
The task of identifying the relative advantage of alternative courses of
action is often complicated by incomplete information, distorted or un-
priced costs and benefits, and uncertainty about future circumstances
and outcomes. Notwithstanding these difficulties (which are examined
in subsequent chapters), economic evaluations offer a means of ranking
alternative courses of action according to consistent criteria for the
guidance of decision makers in selecting among the alternative strat-
egies available to them.
Economic decisions are never made with complete certainty, of course.
Information about the resources and markets, and about the range of
possible actions and their outcomes, is always more or less uncertain.
Most decision makers are averse to risk, and so the degree of uncertainty
surrounding alternative courses of action has significant influence on
their choice. Attitudes towards risk taking vary considerably, however.
The degree of uncertainty is therefore an important influence on de-
cision making, and a later chapter considers how it can be taken into
account in economic analysis. It is particularly important in forestry
because knowledge about the biological character of forests and their
potential responses to treatments is usually limited. In addition, the long
planning periods involved in forest production exacerbate the difficulty
of predicting the long-term benefits and costs of actions taken today.
Thus, the risks of losses from fire and other causes also contribute to the
uncertainty in forestry decision making.
Traditionally, economists have approached their subject in two ways.
Positive economics is concerned with describing and explaining eco-
nomic behaviour, without judgments about its desirability; in contrast,
normative economics assesses behaviour in terms of given criteria or
objectives, and is therefore more concerned with how economies should
be organized and regulated. This forest economics book does not follow
either of these schools exclusively. We try to avoid prescribing the ob-
jectives that decision makers should adopt, or the best distribution of
income; rather, our emphasis is on using economic analysis to assist
Sample Material © 2011 UBC Press
22 Markets, Government, and Forest Investment Analysis
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1 Explain why economics is concerned only with the allocation of
“scarce” resources. In what sense are forest resources “scarce”? Where
are they not scarce?
2 Compare how management decisions are made for (a) a privately
owned forest in a capitalist economy, (b) a government-owned forest
in a planned socialist economy, and (c) a tribal forest in a primitive
subsistence economy.
3 What are private goods? What are public goods? What are merit
goods?
4 Explain how innovations in mechanized forestry can affect (a) eco-
nomic efficiency in timber production, and (b) the distribution of
income.
5 Describe the importance of objectives in evaluating forest manage-
ment decisions.
6 If the fundamental objectives of society are either economic efficiency
or equity, how would you classify the following? (In other words,
which would follow the criteria of the equity objective, and which
would follow the criteria of the efficiency objective?)
a) A forestry firm’s immediate profits
b) A forestry firm’s long-term profits
c) Employment in a forested region
d) Selective employment of indigenous populations
e) Recreation in a forest park
f) Long-term security of timber supply for a pulp mill
g) Long-term preservation of biodiversity on public forestland.
7 Compare the approaches of a silviculturalist and an economist in con-
sidering how best to manage a forest. What are the main concerns of
each likely to be? Can their approaches be reconciled?
FURTHER READING
Clawson, Marion. 1975. Forests for Whom and for What? Baltimore: The
Johns Hopkins University Press, for Resources for the Future. Chapters
3 and 7.
Duerr, William A. 1988. Forestry Economics as Problem Solving. Blacksburg,
VA: Author. Part 1.
Gregory, G. Robinson. 1987. Resource Economics for Foresters. New York:
John Wiley and Sons. Chapter 1.
Klemperer, W. David. 2003. Forest Economics and Finance. New York:
McGraw-Hill. Chapter 1.
Quade, Edward S. 1989. Analysis for Public Decisions. 3rd ed. New York:
North-Holland. Chapters 4-7.
Samuelson, Paul A., and William D. Nordhaus. 2004. Economics. 17th ed.
New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Chapters 1-3 and 32.
UBC Press gratefully acknowledges the financial support for our publishing program
of the Government of Canada (through the Canada Book Fund), the Canada Council for
the Arts, and the British Columbia Arts Council.
Printed and bound in Canada by Friesens
Set in Syntax and Cambria by Artegraphica Design Co. Ltd.
Text design: Irma Rodriguez
Copy editor: Frank Chow
UBC Press
The University of British Columbia
2029 West Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2
www.ubcpress.ca