Coaltraderintl Platts
Coaltraderintl Platts
Coaltraderintl Platts
Thermal coal buyers in China Platts China Coal – Physical Thermal Coal
Benchmark Prices
make a slow return October 8 CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Chg
PCC 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 59.92 0.05 379.00* 0.00
Perth, Singapore—Chinese buyers were making a slow return to the PCC 2 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,000 NAR 52.49 0.05 332.00* 0.00
seaborne market for thermal coal in Asian trade following the week- PCC 6 (CFR South China) 3,800 NAR 31.20 0.00 197.36 -0.15
PCC 6 (VAT included) 3,800 NAR 230.91 -0.18
long holidays and few firm bids were heard for cargoes with a PCC 7 (CFR South China) 4,700 NAR 42.30 0.00 267.57 -0.21
November shipment date, said market sources Thursday. PCC 7 (VAT included) 4,700 NAR 313.06 -0.24
One trader said although Chinese market participants were PCC 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 49.50 0.00 313.12 -0.24
PCC 8 (Duty & VAT included) 5,500 NAR 388.33 -0.30
expected back on Thursday, some had chosen to extend their holiday
*includes VAT at 17%
until Monday. “I don't expect any large demand,” the participant added.
Early in the Asian trading session a trader in Singapore received a Platts Physical Thermal Coal Assessments, October 8
bid for a November-arrival cargo of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR Australian coal CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg
Daily Prompt Prices
at $49.50/mt CFR South China.
FOB Newcastle 20% ash 5,500 NAR 43.00 -0.10
He said this was not from a Chinese buyer. - Ash Differential (net value)* 0.36
A November-delivery 130,000 mt Capesize cargo of 5,500 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 52.90 -0.25
NAR Australian coal was heard offered at $51/mt CFR southern China FOB Kalimantan Geared Supramax 4,200 GAR 26.00 0.00
FOB Kalimantan Geared Supramax 3,800 GAR 20.80 0.00
(continued on page 8) CFR India West Capesize 6,000 NAR 57.50 -0.10
CFR India West Gearless Panamax 5,500 NAR 47.60 0.00
CFR India West Gearless Panamax 5,000 GAR 45.25 -0.05
45
Inside this issue
40 Weak Indian economy, credit issues limit thermal coal demand 3
Onshore wind reaches cost-competitiveness in Germany, UK: BNEF 6
35 Asia met coal prices stable after China’s tepid return from holidays 7
10-Jul 23-Jul 05-Aug 18-Aug 01-Sep 14-Sep 25-Sep 08-Oct Currency volatility hampers Indonesian thermal coal deals 8
Source: Platts NW Europe industrial pellet market edges lower on weak demand 10
CIF ARA thermal spot slips as players Platts Forward Curve Coal, October 8
Bid Ask Midpoint* Change*
re-evaluate Russian supply tightness CIF ARA
London—European CIF ARA physical thermal coal prices dropped once Nov 15 50.95 51.25 51.10 -0.30
Dec 15 50.05 50.35 50.20 -0.30
again Thursday following a re-evaluation of Russian supply tightness,
Q1 2016 49.20 49.50 49.35 -0.25
as well as lower swaps contracts, sources said. Q2 2016 48.40 48.70 48.55 -0.50
Platts assessed the price of CIF ARA physical thermal coal basis Q3 2016 48.65 48.95 48.80 -0.25
6,000 kcal/kg NAR and for delivery within the next 15-60 day period at Q4 2016 48.90 49.20 49.05 -0.35
$52.80/mt, 70 cents lower on-day. 2016 48.75 49.05 48.90 -0.30
2017 48.85 49.15 49.00 -0.35
A multi-origin November Amsterdam-Rotterdam cargo with US
2018 49.35 49.65 49.50 -0.45
optionality traded at $52.80/mt with exchange of futures for physical
FOB Richards Bay
terms attached via Atlantic Brokers, falling 70 cents from a similar
Nov 15 50.20 50.50 50.35 -0.15
November DES AR deal Wednesday. Sources said the trade was Dec 15 50.00 50.30 50.15 -0.10
equivalent to a $1.60/mt premium to the corresponding CIF ARA paper Q1 2016 49.80 50.10 49.95 -0.30
contract. Q2 2016 48.90 49.20 49.05 -0.55
Market participants had attributed the widening physical premiums Q3 2016 48.30 48.60 48.45 -0.10
Q4 2016 47.95 48.25 48.10 -0.30
to paper over the last couple of weeks to a perceived lack of Russian
2016 48.75 49.05 48.90 -0.30
coal availability, following lower shipments from Latvian ports. 2017 48.20 48.50 48.35 -0.30
However, a Northwest European utility trader said the reduced 2018 48.50 48.80 48.65 -0.30
levels of spot Russian coal had been occurring for most of the year and FOB Newcastle
were nothing new, noting that Russian material was still available even Nov 15 53.15 53.65 53.40 -0.35
if it was not plentiful. Dec 15 53.15 53.65 53.40 -0.40
He said he had sold two shipments of Russian coal to Croatia and Q1 2016 53.50 54.00 53.75 -0.30
Spain in the last month. Q2 2016 51.00 51.50 51.25 -0.45
Q3 2016 49.95 50.45 50.20 -0.40
The utility trader added that there was more than enough coal
Q4 2016 49.45 49.95 49.70 -0.15
supply in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub to go 2016 50.75 51.75 51.25 -0.35
around, with about 1 million mt of South African coal heading to 2017 49.85 50.85 50.35 -0.45
Rotterdam in the next few months. 2018 49.35 50.35 49.85 -0.40
* fields are calculated
He said he had bought a South African cargo for October delivery
to supply his European plants at a $0.50/mt discount to a CIF ARA
index, which was executed off-screen.
Some producers were holding back on offering tonnages, and a PLATTS FORWARD CURVE COAL
large producer/trader was bidding for 30,000 mt clips of Russian- or
South African-only coal in the DES ARA market in order to sell that coal ($/mt)
origin at higher levels when in negotiations, the utility trader said. 54
Broker sources said December DES AR cargoes were bid at $51.60/ FOB Richards Bay
FOB Newcastle
mt and offered at $52/mt.
CIF ARA
mid-CV coal cargoes to India this month, but demand was not strong. Month-Ahead 7.38 0.40 6.55 0.34
Month-Ahead +1 4.37 0.23 3.87 0.18
“We shipped 1.5 million mt to India last year. If we can ship the same
Quarter-Ahead 5.48 0.02 4.86 0.00
volume this year, we'll have a party,” he said. Quarter-Ahead +1 1.92 0.17 1.70 0.14
According to a west India-based trader, the slowing Indian Year-Ahead 3.98 0.04 3.53 0.03
economy has limited growth in the manufacturing sector, curtailing Year-Ahead + 1 2.75 0.12 2.44 0.10
demand for imported thermal coal from industries like steel and Year-Ahead + 2 2.61 0.11 2.31 0.09
cement as demand for their products have also declined. UK Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)
Improved domestic coal production had grabbed some buying Month-Ahead 43.93 0.51 38.95 0.31
interest away from imported thermal coal as well, while stocks at Month-Ahead +1 44.53 0.52 39.48 0.31
power plants were still at comfortable levels. Quarter-Ahead 46.25 0.33 41.01 0.14
Quarter-Ahead +1 42.30 0.45 37.51 0.26
Based on the Central Electricity Authority's data, combined thermal
Season-Ahead 41.86 0.47 37.12 0.28
coal stocks at 100 Indian power plants as of September 30 were at
UK Clean Dark Spreads (35% efficiency)
25.94 million mt. While this figure is 12.5% lower than a month ago, it
Month-Ahead 35.02 0.49 31.05 0.32
was triple the 8.3 million mt recorded during the same time last year.
Month-Ahead +1 35.62 0.49 31.58 0.32
The trader received offers for October-loading geared vessel Quarter-Ahead 37.26 0.30 33.04 0.14
cargoes of Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal at $26/mt FOB, but bids Quarter-Ahead +1 33.31 0.41 29.54 0.26
were at $25.50/mt FOB. He placed the price for 3,800 kcal/kg GAR coal Season-Ahead 32.88 0.44 29.15 0.28
at $20/mt FOB, which he said was “ridiculously low.” ($/MWh) Change (GBP/MWh) Change
Many of his customers did not want to confirm cargo bookings UK Clean Dark Spreads CPS (35% efficiency)
until nearer to the loading dates because they expected prices to fall. Month-Ahead 8.11 0.52 5.30 0.34
“Laycan is for October 15-26 [if anyone books a cargo today]. The Month-Ahead+1 8.71 0.52 5.69 0.34
maximum is for shipment at the end of October,” he said. Quarter-Ahead 10.3 0.34 6.77 0.22
An east India-based trader said Indian demand was not very strong Quarter-Ahead+1 6.52 0.44 4.26 0.29
Season-Ahead 10.3 0.34 6.77 0.22
as buyers were not procuring to build stocks. Prices were expected to
slip further, so they were just buying on an as-required basis, he said. UK Dark Spread (35% efficiency)*
Panamax vessels of Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal was offered Dark Spread 43.93 0.51 28.72 0.36
around $32-$33/mt CFR east coast India, a north India-based trader Clean Spread 35.02 0.49 22.89 0.34
* Uses CIF ARA 15-60 day forward basis physical price
said. He pegged the Panamax freight from Indonesia to east coast
India at around $6-$7/mt. Heat Rate (Minimum efficiency to pay fuel cost)
(Btu/kWh) (%)
Credit problems Gas, UK 13667 24.98%
The Singapore-based trader noted there were still credit problems Gas, Germany 5973 57.16%
in India. Steel producers have been struggling and the small- and mid- Carbon-Adjusted
sized companies have “serious credit issues.” ($/mt) Change
“Buyers are re-arranging contracts and shifting laycans,” a second CIF ARA 72.88 -0.65
north India-based trader said.
— Mia Corazon Aureus, Sapna Dogra Richards Bay-India West 8.60 0.00
Kalimantan-India West 6.50 -0.05
Richards Bay-India East 8.80 0.00
Kalimantan-India East 5.30 -0.05
CIF ARA thermal swaps edge lower on related Richards Bay-Rotterdam 7.25 -0.25
Richards Bay-Spanish Med 8.15 -0.25
energy commodities, macro Richards Bay-Jorf Lasfar 5.75 0.00
Bolivar-Rotterdam 7.75 0.00
London—Europe-delivered CIF ARA thermal coal swaps lost around 30 USEC-China 22.00 0.00
cents Thursday, with market sources noting that prices had been USEC-India 20.00 0.00
USEC-Rotterdam 7.25 0.00
weighed down by weaker related energy commodities and lower
USEC-Brazil 8.00 0.00
macroeconomic indicators. Mobile-Rotterdam 8.50 0.00
Platts assessed the CIF ARA front-quarter Q1-16 contract at $49.35/ Mobile-Taranto 10.00 0.00
mt, slipping 25 cents on the day, and the year-ahead Cal-16 at $48.90/ Roberts Bank-Rotterdam 12.15 0.00
Roberts Bank-Japan 9.45 0.00
mt, down 30 cents.
Australia-China 7.50 0.00
A London-based trader said most energy commodities seemed to Australia-India 9.75 0.00
moving together — coal, UK natural gas and German power — but added Queensland-Rotterdam 11.15 0.00
that “it seems like the market overcorrected too strongly on the way up Queensland-Iskenderun 10.20 0.00
New South Wales-Rotterdam 10.30 0.00
and is now coming down with people making new short positions.”
Another trading source said the CIF ARA Cal-16 price movements had
largely correlated with those of the euro-dollar exchange rate Thursday.
Platts Physical Thermal Coal Assessments, October 8
Year-ahead Cal-16 swaps opened 30 cents higher at $49.50/mt, the
CV (kcal/kg) Basis $/mt Chg Yuan/mt Chg
$48.75/mt around midday then heading up towards the $49/mt level. Daily Prompt Prices
Similarly, the euro rose to $1.13097 against the US dollar during the CFR South China 5,500 NAR 49.40 -0.10 313.71 -1.17
morning before falling to $1.12517 around midday before climbing back FOB Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR 50.86 0.08 323.00 0.00
to close at $1.12823.
Nearby CIF ARA Q1-16 coal paper contracts opened at $49.40/mt,
Metallurgical Coke
20 cents lower on the day and fell to $49.10/mt during early afternoon
before recovering towards the end of the day. %CSR $/mt Change % Chg
FOB North China 66/65 125.50 -0.50 -0.40
German power baseload Cal-16 contracts lost 15 euro cents to
FOB North China 62 124.50 -0.50 -0.40
€29.25/MWh. CFR India 62 138.00 -0.50 -0.36
The South African FOB Richards Bay paper market was quiet Yuan/mt
Thursday, with sources noting that there had been no noticeable DDP North China (weekly) 62 855.00 -5.00 -0.58
impact from the ongoing South African coal mining industry strike.
“I think [the strike] has not done anything really — the [FOB
Richards Bay swaps] underperformed if anything with [CIF ARA paper Coking coal swaps assessment, October 8
prices] rising more, which shows people were profit-taking, as the [CIF $/mt Change % Chg
ARA market] is where people hold speculative positions,” the first Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australia
London-based trader said. Nov 15 78.750 0.50 0.64
Front-quarter implied freight (CIF ARA-FOB Richards Bay) spread Dec 15 78.750 0.50 0.64
Jan 16 79.000 0.50 0.50
narrowed 5 cents to minus $0.60/mt.
Q1 2016 79.000 0.50 0.64
The FOB Richards Bay Q1-16 contract was assessed at $49.95/mt Q2 2016 79.000 0.50 0.64
and the Cal-16 at $48.90/mt, both slipping 30 cents on-day. Q3 2016 79.250 0.25 0.25
— Jacqueline Holman 2016 79.500 0.50 0.63
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Alinta to shut South Australian coal mine Platts Daily Metallurgical Coal Assessments, October 8
The MSR will start removing 12% of the net surplus each year from
Platts Daily Assessments for US Thermal Coal Exports,
January 2019 if the surplus is greater than 833 million mt.
Oct 7
($/mt) Change
Among the country-level findings of the BNEF study are that
FOB US East Coast (6,500 NAR, 1% sulfur) 54.75 0.25
onshore wind is now fully cost-competitive with both gas-fired and FOB USGC Eastern Coal (6,000 NAR, 3% sulfur) 38.75 -0.50
coal-fired power generation, once carbon costs are taken into account, FOB USGC Western Coal (5,000 GAR, 0.5% sulfur) 41.00 -0.25
in the UK and Germany. FOB Canada/USWC (5,000 GAR, 0.5% sulfur) 52.00 -0.25
In the UK, onshore wind comes in on average at $85/MWh in the *14-45 day basis, see methodology for further details.
second half of 2015, compared to $115/MWh for CCGT gas plants and
$115/MWh for coal-fired power, BNEF said.
In Germany, onshore wind is at $80/MWh, compared to $118/MWh Monthly and Quarterly Averages for Platts Forward
for gas and $106/MWh for coal, it added. Benchmark Coal Price Assessments ($/mt)
Worldwide, the BNEF study shows that the global average LCOE for CV (kcal/kg) Basis Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Q3-15 Q2-15
onshore wind nudged downwards from $85/MWh in the first half of CIF ARA 6,000 NAR 53.55 55.92 58.34 55.97 58.73
2015, to $83/MWh in the second half, while that for solar PV fell from FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 51.44 54.36 57.05 54.32 60.72
FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR 40.76 44.86 48.51 44.76 52.27
$129/MWh to $122/MWh, it said.
FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 42.60 42.68 46.08 43.88 46.87
FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 56.11 58.57 59.13 57.94 59.03
LCOE rises for coal generation
FOB Gladstone 6,500 GAR 58.23 60.50 61.15 60.05 62.07
In the same period, the LCOE for coal-fired generation increased FOB Kalimantan 5,900 GAR 50.93 52.35 52.42 51.91 55.17
from $66/MWh to $75/MWh in the Americas and from $82/MWh to FOB Kalimantan 5,000 GAR 38.35 39.94 40.70 39.69 43.88
$105/MWh in Europe. FOB Kalimantan 4,200 GAR 26.58 27.82 28.91 27.80 31.41
The LCOE for combined-cycle gas turbine generation rose from FOB Kalimantan 3,800 GAR 21.40 22.92 23.78 22.73 25.18
$76/MWh to $82/MWh in the Americas and from $103/MWh to $118/ CFR India West 6,000 NAR 58.05 61.50 64.30 61.38 67.79
MWh in EMEA. CFR India West 5,500 NAR 49.48 54.74 59.44 54.71 61.51
“Generating costs continue to vary greatly from region to region, CFR India West 5,000 GAR 45.81 47.73 49.55 47.76 51.88
reflecting influences such as the shale gas boom in the US, changing CFR India West 4,200 GAR 34.29 35.86 38.01 36.12 39.64
CFR India West 3,800 GAR 29.03 31.75 33.55 31.51 34.34
utilization rates in areas of high renewables penetration, the shortage of
CFR India East 6,000 NAR 58.34 61.80 64.60 61.67 68.00
local gas production in East Asia, carbon prices in Europe, differing
CFR India East 5,500 NAR 49.78 54.94 59.65 54.95 61.62
regulations on nuclear power across the world, and contrasting resources
CFR India East 5,000 GAR 45.13 46.79 48.38 46.82 51.10
for solar generation,” BNEF energy economics analyst Luke Mills said. CFR India East 4,200 GAR 33.35 34.67 36.59 34.93 38.63
“But onshore wind and solar PV are both now much more CFR India East 3,800 GAR 27.85 30.11 31.60 29.91 32.79
competitive against the established generation technologies than FOB Colombia 6,000 NAR 49.13 49.65 52.34 50.52 54.30
would have seemed possible only five or 10 years ago,” Mills added. Poland Baltic* 6,000 NAR 49.03 50.75 53.62 51.32 54.58
Wind turbines and solar panels in Europe's five biggest power Russian Baltic** 6,000 NAR 49.13 50.85 53.63 51.39 54.63
markets — Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain — have already CIF Turkey 6,000 NAR 58.85 61.56 64.20 61.74 64.65
generated more than 200 TWh of electricity in the first nine months on Russia Pacific 6,300 GAR 50.35 52.36 54.29 52.48 54.55
2015, data from Platts European Renewable Power Tracker shows. CFR South China 5,500 NAR 48.74 50.02 52.18 50.38 51.85
FOB Qinhuangdao*** 5,500 NAR 326.33 332.47 335.57 331.57 344.78
Reduced utilization rates of coal- and gas-fired power stations amid
FOB Qinhuangdao 6,200 GAR 65.56 66.91 69.66 67.55 71.62
increased renewables feed-in is a key feature across those markets
CIF Korea West 6,080 NAR 57.80 61.26 61.54 60.30 64.21
with gas-fired power plants hit hardest due to higher generation costs
CIF Japan (basket price) 6,080 NAR 61.64 65.30 65.50 64.25 66.55
compared to coal and EUA carbon allowances still not high enough to *Assessed on a 6,300 kcal/kg GAR basis before January 2, 2015. **Assessed on a 6,400 kcal/kg
make less polluting gas-plants competitive against coal outside the UK, GAR basis before January 2, 2015. ***Assessed in Yuan/mt. See methodology for further details.