Argus Coal Daily International

Coal market prices, news and analysis

Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

News and Analysis prICES

Colombian coal exports strengthen in October Daily price assessments $/t

Colombian coal exports rose on the year for a fourth Energy Basis Timing Port Price ±
consecutive month in October, but the country’s overall
Europe
exports remain below pre-pandemic levels.
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA 143.40 +1.55
Coal shipments nearly doubled on the year to 4.3mn t in South Africa
October, gaining by 1.8mn t and taking overall shipments in 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 135.75 +6.54
January-October to 43.2mn t, up from 42.4mn t during the
same period a year earlier, shipping data show. Weekly and monthly averages of daily assessments $/t
The country’s export performance is not expected to Energy Basis Timing Port Price Previous
recover to historic norms in the short term as two key
Europe
mining companies, Prodeco and CNR, have stopped their
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA rolling weekly avg 138.47 145.40
operations, which have reduced the country’s export 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA rolling monthly avg 147.26 231.60
potential by around 20mn t and left Drummond and Cerrejon South Africa
as the main coal producers. These two companies were 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob RB rolling weekly avg 129.24 137.69
producing around 60mn t/yr before the Covid-19 pandemic, 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob RB rolling monthly avg 137.24 210.38
suggesting this is the ceiling for Colombian exports unless
Argus cif ARA spot coal assessment $/t
Prodeco or CNR resume operations.
Drummond’s exports stood at 2.4mn t and Cerrejon 350
exported 2.1mn t in October, according to company figures.
300
Weaker Turkish demand offset by EU 250
Coal exports to Turkey, Colombia’s biggest export market,
have fallen to a multi-year low in line with unfavourable 200
coal-burn economics in the country. 150 hhhhhhh
Shipments nearly halved on the year to 371,000t in
October, despite coming from a low base of 626,000t in 100
2020. Turkish coal-fired generators typically import around 50

Data & download updates 0

11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

„„ ARA coal stocks Argus Richards Bay spot coal assessment $/t
„„ China coal imports
„„ Coal: Turkey power generation 250
„„ South Korea nuclear generation and availability
„„ South Korea coal imports
200

Contents 150
hhhhhhh

Coal swaps rise with physical 4

China’s Qinhuangdao coal stocks decline 6 100
Vietnam’s coal imports ease in October 7
API 2 backwardation retreats to five-month low 8
50
Tauron’s coal stocks sufficient for this winter 8
11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

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 Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

Colombia coal shipments mn t

the whole of 2020. But despite the recent uptick in coal
Turkey Asia-Pac EU LatAm Israel Other demand, exports to the bloc this year are likely to remain
7.0 below 2019’s shipments of 13.2mn t.
The Netherlands led the growth in European imports
6.0
from Colombia, with loadings to this destination rising to
5.0 730,000t from nothing a year earlier. Overall shipments
4.0 reached 3.8mn t in January-October.
Flows to Spain also rose sharply, rising to 223,000t from
3.0
165,000t last month and aggregate January-October receipts
2.0 rising to 1.25mn t from 1mn t a year earlier.
Exports to Latin America have been strengthening this
1.0
year, mainly driven by strong Brazilian demand, which rose
0.0 to 630,000t from 165,000t last year.
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
Shipments to the Asia-Pacific basin have fallen sharply
as Colombian supply is no longer pricing competitively into
1.5mn-2mn t of coal from Colombia in October-December, this region. Only one 190,000t vessel was heading towards
based on 2016-19 data . this region in October but the ship’s destination could not be
The steep decline in shipments to Turkey came as confirmed at the time of reporting. South Korea and Taiwan
Turkish coal-fired generation fell well below historic norms imported 165,000t and 80,000t in October 2020, respectively.
in October. The country’s coal-fired generation averaged Aggregate exports to China, India, Japan, South Korea
3.7GW in October, down by nearly half on the year to 7GW. and Taiwan fell to 6.26mn t in January-October, down from
This implies the country’s NAR 5,800 kcal/kg coal burn has 8.22mn t during the same period last year.
dropped by around 1mn t to around 910,000t, according to Shipments to India fell steeply this year, as Colombian
Argus calculations. supply was not able to compete against South African,
But Turkey’s coal-burn outlook improved drastically Australian and US-origin coal, while overall Indian seaborne
at the beginning of this month, when state-owned gas demand has shrunk this year. Loadings fell by 2.8mn t on the
distribution company Botas hiked its tariff for gas generators year to a modest 100,000t in January-October.
steeply. The country’s coal-fired fleet is now running at near Chinese demand for Colombian supply was strong in the
full capacity, suggesting some spot demand is likely to re- earlier part of the year, but shipping data suggests exports
emerge from the country, despite coal-fired utilities looking fell to nothing in September and October.
to divert or postpone their term cargoes until recently. By Firat Ergene
The drop in Turkish shipments was offset by strong
loadings from Colombia to Europe in October, where coal
demand rebounded sharply. A steep increase in spot gas Fob Qinhuangdao domestic NAR 5,500 kcal
prices enabled coal to supplant gas in the power mix of price suspended
some key coal-consuming countries. Colombian shipments Argus has suspended publication of the fob Qinhuangdao
to the EU more than tripled on the year to 1.4mn t in domestic NAR 5,500 kcal/kg price assessment. Argus
October, from 390,000t last year. This was also higher than will monitor developments and may resume coverage
September’s 1.17mn t. Colombia also exported 54,000t to at a later date. Argus continues to publish a range of
the UK last month. price assessments, news and analysis about the Chinese,
On a year-to-date basis, Colombian shipments to the regional and global coal markets.
EU reached 6.8mn t, exceeding the 4.9mn t imported in

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Issue Ref: 438719

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

weekly prices

Off-specification South African prices and differentials for 12 Nov 2021 $/t

Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± Weekly index December * January * Nov MTD † Oct final †

5,700 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 127.16 +4.17 -6.50 -6.60 -6.40 -6.67 -9.17
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 107.14 -0.03 -18.40 -15.05 -14.65 -16.50 -22.81
4,800 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 86.70 +2.51 -25.30 -25.85 -24.70 -25.77 -34.87
* Differential to API 4 swap for the month based on market survey. † Average of weekly spot price assessments based on deals and market survey.

International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 $/t International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 RMB/t
Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± Energy Basis Timing Port Price ±

Europe China
5,700 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA 143.00 -4.00 fob Qinhuangdao
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths na na
Black Sea and Mediterranean domestic

cif Turkey mini bulk 3,800 kcal NAR 2mths ddp East China 685.60 -89.65
6,000 kcal NAR 1mth 169.25 -18.25
plus 3,800 kcal NAR 2mths cfr East China 606.73 -79.33
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif Turkey supra plus 168.00 -18.25
Russia
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Baltic ports 133.13 na
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 132.67 na
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 111.00 na
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Black Sea 134.50 na
Australia
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 153.69 -5.60
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 106.56 -6.80 Argus fob Richards Bay spot coal assessments $/t
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths fob Newcastle 130.29 -5.49 fob RB 6000 fob RB 5700 fob RB 5500
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths fob Newcastle (basis 136.58 -5.75 250
NAR 6,080 kcal)
Northeast Asia
200
fob Qinhuangdao
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths na na
domestic
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr south China 144.38 -25.95 150
3,800 kcal NAR 2mths ddp East China 107.02 -14.15 hhh
3,800 kcal NAR 2mths cfr East China 94.71 -12.52 100
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths cfr South Korea 159.62 -2.91
cfr South Korea (basis
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths 167.33 -3.05 50
NAR 6,080 kcal)
India
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr east India 132.75 -7.58 0
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 131.59 -15.41 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 97.53 -15.36
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths cfr west India 132.88 -15.54
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths cfr west India 98.66 -15.84 Argus fob Newcastle spot coal assessments $/t
Indonesia
fob Newc 5500 fob Newc 6000
6,500 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 154.41 -17.58
300
5,800 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 137.87 -12.30
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 117.58 -10.74 250
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 81.53 -8.96
3,400 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 50.13 -7.88 200

150 hhh
International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 $/t
Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± 100

Americas 50
11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob Puerto Bolivar 164.00 -5.00
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Hampton Roads 126.90-138.30 -0.37 0
11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob New Orleans 116.00 -6.00 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

commentary

Forward prices $/t Coal swaps rise with physical

Timing Buy Sell Average ± European paper prices rose today tracking strength in the
cif ARA (Rotterdam) API 2 physical spot market.
December 135.95 136.45 136.20 +2.15 Argus’ daily cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp index
January 132.35 132.85 132.60 +2.40 continued to move higher, rising by $1.55/t on the day to
February 128.25 128.75 128.50 +2.20 $143.40/t. The index has gained $13.18/t since the beginning
1Q22 128.40 128.90 128.65 +2.25 of this week, drawing strength from volatility in the gas
2Q22 114.35 114.85 114.60 +2.20 market triggered by Europe’s gas inventories remaining
3Q22 108.20 108.70 108.45 +1.65
below seasonal norms heading into the peak-demand season
4Q22 103.30 103.80 103.55 +1.50
and expectations of a delay to the start-up of the Nord
1Q23 100.65 101.15 100.90 +1.75
Stream 2 pipeline.
Near curve contracts posted sharper gains compared with
2022 113.55 114.05 113.80 +1.90
longer-dated contracts, but the average of the December
2023 99.40 99.90 99.65 +1.80
and January API 2 contracts still holds a $9/t premium
2024 95.55 96.05 95.80 +1.60
against the physical market.
fob Richards Bay South Africa API 4
German baseload power prices for December fell by
December 133.10 133.60 133.35 +6.05
€3.25/MWh on the day to €184/MWh, while the February
January 128.75 129.25 129.00 +5.95
contract edged up by €1/MWh to €210/MWh
February 124.60 125.10 124.85 +6.00
Gas prices in key European hubs continued to ease from
1Q22 124.65 125.15 124.90 +6.25
the recent peak they hit earlier in the week. Dutch TTF
2Q22 113.25 113.75 113.50 +5.15
contracts for December and January fell by €0.78/MWh and
3Q22 107.20 107.70 107.45 +3.90
€0.74/MWh to €93.88/MWh and €94.33/MWh, respectively.
4Q22 102.40 102.90 102.65 +2.40
Temperatures in Berlin are forecast to rise 7 °C above
1Q23 100.40 100.90 100.65 +2.35 seasonal norms on 19 November, which should weigh on
2022 111.90 112.40 112.15 +4.45 heating and power demand, but are expected fall below
2023 97.70 98.20 97.95 +4.00 seasonal levels once again from 22 November .
2024 94.75 95.25 95.00 +3.70 South African swaps rose more sharply than their European
API 2 premium to API 4 counterparts, in line with tight fundamentals in Asia-Pacific.
Prompt 2.60 3.10 2.85 -3.90 Indian utilities continue to build stocks but inventory
South Africa to Europe, implied freight rate levels remain well below seasonal norms. Combined stocks
1Q22 3.70 3.80 3.75 -4.00 at the 135 plants listed by the Indian Central Electricity
2Q22 1.05 1.15 1.10 -2.95 Authority — which source most of their needs domestically
3Q22 0.95 1.05 1.00 -2.25 — rose to 15.08mn t yesterday, up from 14.82mn t on 15
4Q22 0.85 0.95 0.90 -0.90 November. Aggregate coal inventories among the 13 imported-
1Q23 0.20 0.30 0.25 -0.60 coal-based units rose to 1.16mn t from 1.07mn t over the same
2022 1.60 1.70 1.65 -2.55 period but six of the 13 imported coal plants with a combined
2023 1.65 1.75 1.70 -2.20 capacity of 4.8GW have depleted their stocks.
2024 0.75 0.85 0.80 -2.10

API 2 year-ahead $/t

Forward prices $/t API 2 Cal 2022 50-day MA 100-day MA
Timing Midpoint ± 200

fob Newcastle 5,500 API 5 175

December 108.20 +2.80
150
January 105.40 +3.35
1Q22 101.45 +3.40 125 hhh
2Q22 92.35 +3.70
100
3Q22 87.15 +2.50
4Q22 83.45 +1.65 75
2022 90.20 +2.05
50
24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

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commentary

Indonesian coal prices regain footing Forward prices $/t

Indonesian thermal coal prices are showing signs of Timing Midpoint ±
stabilising after relatively steep declines since the start fob Indo 4,200 GAR, ICI 4
of this week. Weather-related disruptions to production
December 55.85 +0.35
in parts of Indonesia’s key producing Kalimantan region is
January 52.15 +0.15
offsetting weaker Chinese demand.
1Q22 50.40 +1.40
In the Indonesian low-calorific value (CV) GAR 4,200
2Q22 46.90 +0.65
kcal/kg (NAR 3,800 kcal/kg) market, a December-loading
geared Supramax cargo was sold at slightly less than $70/t 2022 47.40 +3.00

fob Kalimantan. This is significantly higher than a tender

China carbon emission allowance (CEA) price
award by a south Chinese utility today for a December-
18 Nov 2021 CNY/t ± USD/t ±
loading geared Supramax cargo of this coal at a price that
participants estimate would net back to around $64/t fob CEA Closing Price 43.16 +0.04 6.76 +0.01

Kalimantan. This market was last assessed by Argus at Open Trade Volumes, t 48608.00 -37798.00

$81.53/t fob Kalimantan on 12 November. Data source: Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange

In the ICI 4 derivatives market, December and January futures

were assessed yesterday at $55.50/t and $52/t, respectively.
In the mid-CV Indonesian GAR 5,000 kcal/kg market, caps at the ports.
December-loading Panamax cargoes were bid at $95/t fob China’s coal futures were relatively steady, with the
Kalimantan against offers at $105/t, but trade was relatively most actively-traded January contract at the Zhengzhou
thin as sellers held back on expectations that Chinese commodity exchange closing at Yn823.20/t today, down
demand will rebound as the northern hemisphere winter slightly from yesterday’s Yn825/t.
gets underway. In the Australian high-ash NAR 5,500 kcal/kg market,
In China, some utilities have stepped up their restocking December-loading Capesize cargoes were offered at around
of domestic coal ahead of a strong cold snap forecast to $102-108/t fob Newcastle. But bids were relatively scarce,
hit most of the country starting tomorrow. This weather although some prospective buyers indicated price ideas at
phenomenon is expected to last until 22 November. Chinese around $93/t to test the market. Australian supplies have
NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal cargoes were sold at around 1,100- tightened further recently because of disruptions caused by
1,200 yuan/t ($172.31-$187.97/t) fob north China ports, climate change protests and heavy rain, meaning that some
relatively steady from earlier this week. Deliveries to the sellers may not be willing to compromise significantly on
key Chinese coal transshipment port of Qinhuangdao have asking prices due to limited spot availability. This market was
slowed over the past week, potentially because some last assessed on 12 November at $105.56/t fob Newcastle.
wholesalers are deterred by the government-imposed price

fob Indonesian prices $/t ICI 4 front month swap vs physical spot $/t

fob Indo 6500 GAR fob Indo 5800 GAR ICI 4 M1 swap fob Indo 4200
fob Indo 5000 GAR fob Indo 4200 GAR 175
fob Indo 3400 GAR
250 150

200 125

150 hhh 100 hhh

100 75

50 50

0 25
1 Dec 20 30 Mar 21 26 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

Coal Market News

China’s Qinhuangdao coal stocks decline market due to expectations of a colder than normal winter.
Inventories at China’s key coal trans-shipment port of Qinhuangdao At China’s other major coal trans-shipment port of
fell against the previous week amid a surge in offtake. Caofeidian, stockpiles were at 3.68mn t on 16 November,
Forecasts of a series of cold snaps for the rest of up from 3.5mn t on 10 November, the latest CCTD data for
November may have prompted utilities to step up purchases the port shows. Offtake levels for the week to 16 November
of prompt cargoes, as Chinese consumers adopt a shorter- were at 1.5mn t, nearly double compared with 732,000t in
term approach to seasonal restocking amid unpredictable the week to 10 November. Inbound deliveries for the week
government price intervention measures. to 16 November were at 1.72mn t, up from 1.51mn t in the
Coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao port were at 5.43mn t week to 10 November.
yesterday, down from 5.65mn t a week earlier, according There were 14 vessels loading at Caofeidian port
to data from coal industry association the CCTD. The latest yesterday, with seven more awaiting entry.
weekly fall reversed a few consecutive weeks of increases, By Kelvin Leong
when utilities held back to observe if spot prices of domestic
coal could stabilise amid unprecedented government-led China boosts financing for cleaner coal use
market interventions. China’s central government plans to increase financing
Offtake for the week to yesterday stood at 3.8mn t, up for cleaner uses of coal, in a bid to achieve national
significantly from 2.92mn t for the previous week, CCTD data decarbonisation targets with the country's continued
shows. Inbound deliveries for the week to yesterday were at reliance on the fuel.
3.58mn t, up slightly from 3.46mn t a week earlier. Weekly The government will put aside an additional relending
inbound deliveries had jumped significantly to around 4mn fund totalling 200bn yuan ($31.4bn) specifically for efficient,
t early this month from weekly levels lower than 3mn t in intelligent and greener coal mining and its use. The fund
early October when suppliers and wholesalers were under will also facilitate development and use of coal-seam gas,
threat by authorities to ramp up deliveries to counter a according to a statement released after a 17 November
severe shortage in October. The drive to raise deliveries meeting of China's state council hosted by premier Li Keqiang.
appears to have lost steam nearer to mid-November, Chinese banks will provide loans to eligible projects with
potentially because of resistance by some wholesalers the rates of interest kept at market levels to similar types of
deterred by government-imposed price caps at ports, other bank loans. The People’s Bank of China, the country’s
Chinese participants said. central bank, will allocate the relending equivalent to the
The vessel queue at Qinhuangdao port averaged 60.85/d principal of the loans to these banks.
for the week to yesterday, significantly higher than 45.71/d a The Chinese government is also considering lowering the
week earlier, according to Argus calculations based on CCTD required share of capital, giving appropriate tax incentives,
data. Freight rates for 50,000-60,000t vessels delivering providing government bonds, and accelerating the projects
coal from Qinhuangdao to the southern Chinese port of designed for cleaner and efficient use of coal.
Guangzhou were around 82 yuan/t yesterday, significantly Market participants expect a significant portion of the
higher than around Yn71/t a month earlier, according to CCTD increased financing to be used for upgrading coal-fired
freight data. Some Chinese vessel owners expect a bullish generation units. China’s main economic planning agency the
NDRC early this month set out a detailed plan for coal-fired
power units to upgrade to be less coal intensive.
Change to sulphur limits for Indonesian coal Coal remains China’s main source of fuel for energy,
prices although the country has reduced its share in its overall
Following consultation, from 7 January 2022, Argus will energy consumption mix. Coal consumption increased by
change the sulphur limits for the following assessments. 0.6pc in 2020 from the previous year, the National Bureau of
The three assessments are components of ICI indexes: Statistics said, without giving a specific consumption figure.
On an as received basis: The share of coal accounted for 56.8pc of China’s overall
„„ Argus fob Indonesia 5,800 (Kalimantan) maximum energy use in 2020, down by 0.9 percentage points from the
sulphur content will rise to 1pc from 0.8pc (ICI 2) previous year.
„„ Argus fob Indonesia 5,000 (Kalimantan) maximum China’s reliance on coal has become even more apparent
sulphur content will rise to 1pc from 0.6pc (ICI 3) in the past two years. An economic rebound after the
„„ Argus fob Indonesia 3,400 (Kalimantan) maximum impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and a reduction in ageing
sulphur content will rise to 0.4pc from 0.2pc (ICI 5) and inefficient coal capacity since 2016 has contributed to a

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Coal Market News

severe shortfall of coal supplies late last year and this year, top three source markets of Indonesia, Australia and Russia.
pushing coal prices to historical highs. Indonesia remained the principal source of coal imports for
More financing for raising the efficiency of coal Vietnam, but its shipments declined to 859,960t, down from
consumption might help China achieve its goal of reaching 1.61mn t in October last year.
peak carbon and carbon neutrality by 2030 and 2060 Australian coal receipts also declined sharply to 852,203t
respectively, as set out by President Xi Jinping last year. from 1.23mn t in October 2020. Imports from Russia slipped
to 341,410t compared with 506,742t in October last year.
Vietnam’s coal imports ease in October By Ajay Modi
Vietnamese coal imports in October fell from a year earlier
even as the country’s coal-fired power generation expanded Japan’s utilities rebuild LNG stocks in November
on the year. Japan’s main power utilities have increased their LNG
Seaborne receipts fell for the 11th straight month in inventories since the end of October, with four utilities
October from a year earlier to 2.1mn t, down from 3.7mn saving the use of the fuel ahead of winter peak electricity
t a year earlier. Imports were unchanged month-on-month demand season.
at 2.1mn t from September. Both September and October Utilities held 2.2mn t of LNG as of 15 November, up by
receipts are the lowest since February when imports stood 6.3pc from 2.07mn t at the end of October, according to a
at 1.9mn t. survey by the country’s trade and industry ministry (Meti).
Vietnamese customs data do not differentiate between The latest figure was higher by 37.5pc from a year earlier and
coking and thermal coal. The decline last month was from a up by 20pc from the four-year average for that time of year.
relatively high base in October 2020. Vietnamese coal users, Utility LNG stocks fell sharply during October, declining
including power plants and cement mills, had increased by 390,000t from 2.46mn t at the end of September.
purchases last year to capitalise on weaker seaborne prices. Warmer-than-usual weather sustained electricity demand
But record high coal prices in October, coupled with for cooling purposes, which boosted gas-fired power output
historically high freight, has weighed on appetite in especially when five coal-fired units with a combined
the recent months. Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg (NAR capacity of 3,081MW were closed for technical issues.
3,800 kcal/kg) coal, assessed by Argus, hit $154.21/t fob Chugoku Electric Power, Kyushu Electric Power, Hokuriku
Kalimantan on 22 October, the highest since assessments Electric Power and Shikoku Electric Power are planning to
began in 2008. Coal prices have softened since then with the reduce output capacity at their gas-fired power this month,
last assessment at $81.53/t on 12 November. claiming that this will save fuel consumption.
Vietnam's renewable power generation rose to 1.42TWh At least 11 gas-fed units are scheduled to reduce output,
in October, rising from 0.79TWh in the same month last with the combined daily average capacity loss estimated
year, according to Argus' estimates based on data from state- at 2,057MW during 7-13 November, 2,856MW during 14-20
controlled generation firm EVN. November and 2,821MW during 21-27 November, according to
Coal-fired generation increased to 8.11TWh from 6.45TWh Argus' calculation based on a power plant operational status
a year earlier and from 7.4TWh in September. Coal-based notice from the Japan Electric Power Exchange.
power accounted for the chunk of the country's generation Japan is expected to avoid power shortage during upcoming
mix, and the is likely to remain a leading source in the near winter, even if the coldest weather in the past decade hits the
future despite Vietnam's renewable energy push. country. But reserve levels remain low, with the Tokyo area
Overall electricity generation rose to 20.1TWh last forecast to have a 3.2pc in January and 3.1pc in February, just
month, up from 19.8TWh in October 2020 and also higher above a minimum 3pc needed to tackle emergencies such as
from 18.2TWh in September, according to the general power plant closures and spikes in peak demand.
statistics office. Vietnamese domestic coal production was Japan's power agency the Organisation for Cross-Regional
4.26mn t in October, up from 4.1mn t in the same month last Coordination of Transmission Operators forecast on 12
year but down from 4.35mn t in September. November that Japan will have a surplus of 12,046GWh from
The country’s index of industrial production for October 13 November-12 January, based on expected inventories of
2021 was estimated 1.6pc lower from the year earlier but thermal fuels. This is estimated to fall to 9,327GWh with
higher by 6.9pc on the month. The index increased by 3.3pc the coldest weather in the past decade, which can meet
in the first 10 months compared with the year earlier. electricity demand of 3.8 days.
Meti started to survey LNG stocks held by main power
Imports decline across origins utilities every two weeks, after the country's power
Vietnam’s coal imports slipped on the year from each of the sector experienced a severe LNG shortage in January that

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Coal Market News

API2 Backwardation $/t
tightened electricity supplies and boosted wholesale power
prices. But it plans to conduct the survey every week, to 100
API2 Month-Ahead to Year-Ahead Backwardation
ensure stable supplies of the fuel.
80
By Motoko Hasegawa
60
API 2 backwardation retreats to five-month low
The premium of the API 2 month-ahead contract to the year- 40
ahead has eased from its record high, but backwardation
on the curve still suggests tight near-term fundamentals in 20

Europe and globally.

The spread hit a record high $90.50/t on 5 October but 0

has since retreated towards $20/t (see chart).

-20
The weakness in the API 2 month-ahead relative to the

Nov-16

Feb-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

Nov-21
May-17

Aug-17

May-18

Aug-18

May-19

Aug-19

May-20

Aug-20

May-21

Aug-21
year-ahead has been driven by plunging European gas prices.
Month-ahead TTF gas prices almost halved from their record
European fuel-switch levels EUR/MWh
high on the prospect of rising Russian gas flows into Europe.
The Chinese government’s intervention to ease domestic 100 Forward
46-50% gas vs 42% coal
coal tightness by capping domestic prices also put pressure 90
51-55% gas vs 42% coal
on near-term European coal prices. 80 56-60% gas vs 42% coal
TTF day-ahead
Although the backwardation in the API 2 swaps has 70
TTF forward (17 Nov)
eased, the premium remains at an elevated level in 60

historical terms, with such levels last observed in 2016. 50

The shortfall in seaborne supply and persistent low coal 40

inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) 30
transshipment hub, in India and at the Richards Bay Coal 20
Terminal, among other indicators, continues to point towards
10
tight near-term coal fundamentals and a continuation of the
0
current backwardated structure, at least in the short term.

Jul-22
Jul-21
Jul-20
Jul-19

Nov-22
Jul-18

Nov-21
Nov-20

Mar-22
Nov-19

Mar-21

Sep-22
Nov-18

Mar-20

Sep-21
Mar-19

Sep-20

Jan-22

May-22
Mar-18

Sep-19

Jan-21

May-21
Sep-18

Jan-20

May-20
Jan-19

May-19
Jan-18

May-18

Coal-gas economics in favour of coal burn

The recent fall in coal prices, coupled with a rebound in are expected to ease in the second quarter of next year.
gas prices, has further entrenched coal in the northwest But gas prices for even summer 2022 delivery remain above
European merit order this winter, while a rise in demand from fuel-switching thresholds, with high-efficiency gas-fired
Turkey could increase competition for available sport cargoes. plants uncompetitive against 42pc efficient coal-fired plants
European gas prices are still well above fuel-switch levels at current forward prices.
for this winter and forward prices as of 17 November show By Yahdian Falah
that European gas prices are comfortably above fuel-switch
levels in the first quarter of next year. This suggests the Tauron's coal stocks sufficient for this winter
trend of firm coal burn will continue, which should keep ARA Poland’s third-largest electricity producer Tauron expects its
stock levels at unseasonably low levels. coal stocks to be sufficient for this winter, despite unusually
The recent uptrend in ARA coal stocks could reverse high coal-fired output driven by strong export power demand.
once water levels on the river Rhine improve and inland The firm does not see a risk of coal shortfalls until the
barging restrictions are lifted. end of next quarter, at least, as supplies were overstocked at
Further tightness in the Atlantic basin market could come the beginning of the year and are currently “optimal”, Tauron
from Turkey as the country's state-owned gas distribution officials said at the latest financial results presentation.
company Botas has hiked its monthly gas tariff for Earlier this month, Polish energy regulator URE warned
November. As a result, coal-fired generation has regained its that 10 power and combined-heat-and-power plants had
competitive edge against gas, which could support Turkish below-average coal stocks, which prompted some state-
demand in the near term. owned utilities to seek coal from non-domestic sources.
Forward coal and gas prices suggest that fundamentals "We do not see a need for [coal] imports, at least until

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

Coal Market News

spring next year," Tauron said. operations in planned schedule,” Tauron said.
Tauron’s coal-fired output stood at 3.3TWh in the third Tauron burned around 4.8mn t of coal in January-
quarter this year, up by 35pc on the year. Coal output for September, with 58pc of the coal supplied by its subsidiary
January-September was 10.15TWh, up by 39pc on the year. Tauron Wydobycie, which operates three coal mines.
The increase was largely attributed to stronger power Tauron Wydobycie's coal output fell by 9pc on the year to
export demand in Europe amid surging gas and power prices, 1mn t in the third quarter, although the decline was partially
Tauron said. Lower wind and biomass generation as well as caused by modernisation works conducted to increase
demand recovery in Poland also contributed to higher coal output in this winter, Tauron said. Tauron Wydobycie's coal
burn, it added. production was 3.7mn t in January-September, up by 3pc on
Tauron owns a total of 5GW generation capacity in the year.
Poland, of which 87pc is coal-fired. Stronger wholesale power prices boosted the firm’s
Poland’s newest and largest coal-fired plant — the generation division profits, although its supply division was
910MW Jaworzno, which is owned by Tauron — is expected negatively impacted.
to remain off line until at least April 2022, following an Tauron’s net profits stood at 457mn zlotys ($114mn) for
unplanned repair outage in June. January-September, up by 15pc on the year. Net profits for
“Forward contract for sales of power in 2022 included July-September were 101mn zlotys, down by 73pc on the year.
volume from the Jaworzno plant, assuming return to By Tomasz Stepien

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

spark spreads

Spark spread calculations

Spark spreads for various thermal efficiencies are calculated from Argus outright fuel, CO2 emissions and electricity prices,
and are not assessments based on actual spark-spread trades. Fuel, emissions and electricity prices are taken from the
Argus European Electricity, Argus European Natural Gas, Argus Coal Daily International, Argus European Products and Argus
European Emissions Markets daily reports.
A selection of spark and dark spreads are published in the print report. A full range of spark and dark spreads can be ac-
cessed through Argus Direct. Please contact sales@argusmedia.com to arrange access.

UK ETS and CSP adjusted spark and dark spreads £/MWh UK unadjusted spark spreads £/MWh
NBP 55% ARA Coal 40% NBP 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load

Working day ahead 26.435 40.435 81.900 95.900 Working day ahead 37.374 51.374

December 59.502 125.502 127.998 193.998 December 69.185 135.185

January 77.221 171.121 150.008 243.908 January 86.393 180.293

February 66.955 135.855 146.921 215.821 February 76.185 145.085

March 32.241 49.391 - - March 43.704 60.854

April 21.384 34.684 - - April 38.939 52.239

May 19.593 32.543 - - May 38.709 51.659

1Q22 58.772 118.772 128.932 188.932 1Q22 68.727 128.727

2Q22 17.176 30.176 18.400 31.400 2Q22 35.812 48.812

3Q22 16.677 27.677 14.503 25.503 3Q22 35.909 46.909

4Q22 15.640 44.790 17.805 46.955 4Q22 34.662 63.812

Summer 2022 16.926 28.926 16.449 28.449 Summer 2022 35.860 47.860

Winter 2022 17.653 45.653 - - Winter 2022 36.770 64.770

Summer 2023 6.573 19.373 - - Summer 2023 28.731 41.531

Winter 2023 8.282 31.332 - - Winter 2023 30.271 53.321

2022 27.819 55.819 45.663 73.663 2022 44.530 72.530

UK front-month peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh UK front-month base-load spark vs dark £/MWh

Gas 55% Coal 40% Gas 55% Coal 40%

200 140

120
175

100
150
hhhhhhhhhhh 80 hhhhhhhhhhh

125
60

100 40

75 20
4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov

Announcement
To allow for the continued publication of UK power plant generating margins from 1 January 2021, Argus will calculate UK emissions-
adjusted dark and spark spreads using EU ETS prices as the cost of carbon until the prices of UK allowances diverge.

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

spark spreads

German ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh German unadjusted dark spreads €/MWh
Germany VTP 55% ARA Coal 40% ARA Coal 40%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load

Working day ahead -61.380 -23.130 26.937 65.187 Working day ahead 85.478 123.728

December -12.018 53.982 79.954 145.954 December 138.742 204.742

January 13.237 88.237 105.991 180.991 January 164.779 239.779

February 20.137 93.137 122.108 195.108 February 180.896 253.896

March -2.491 32.509 - - 1Q22 159.965 220.965

April -7.495 8.055 - - 2Q22 70.317 88.967

May -1.972 16.428 - - 3Q22 73.730 100.980

1Q22 10.291 71.291 101.177 162.177 4Q22 84.802 118.602

2Q22 -2.532 16.118 11.529 30.179 1Q23 89.952 125.002

3Q22 4.505 31.755 14.942 42.192 2022 97.165 132.365

4Q22 12.249 46.049 25.769 59.569 2023 62.409 85.959

1Q23 17.430 52.480 30.430 65.480 2024 49.057 71.757

2Q23 -4.298 12.202 - -

2022 6.073 41.273 38.315 73.515

2023 7.093 30.643 2.824 26.374

2024 6.308 29.008 -11.232 11.468

German year-ahead adjusted spark and dark €/MWh

Coal 40% Gas 49.13%

50

40

30

20
hhhhhhhhhhh

10

Ending coverage of NCG and Gaspool gas 0

prices -10
Following consultation, Argus has finalised its plans for
-20
the end of its coverage of Net Connect Germany (NCG)
31 Aug 27 Sep 22 Oct 18 Nov
and Gaspool gas prices because of the upcoming merger
of these two German market areas into Trading Hub German day- vs quarter-ahead base-load darks €/MWh
Europe (THE).
Front Quarter adjusted 40% Day ahead adjusted 40%
NCG and Gaspool are scheduled to be combined on 1 200
October, six months ahead of a regulated deadline of 1
150
April 2022. The new German market, managed by THE,
will provide a single reference price for the German gas 100
market.
Argus launched new assessments for Germany VTP 50 hhhhhhhhhhh

(Trading Hub Europe) on 15 July 2020 alongside its exist-

0
ing NCG and Gaspool assessments.
From 1 October, Argus will switch all spark spreads -50
that include NCG or Gaspool prices to Germany VTP
-100
(Trading Hub Europe).
4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov

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spark spreads

Dutch ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh Dutch front-month base-load spreads €/MWh
TTF 55% ARA Coal 40%
Coal 40% Gas 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load 200
Working day ahead 9.370 15.870 97.187 103.687
150
December 12.491 56.991 104.454 148.954

January 24.673 79.173 117.491 171.991

100
February 26.982 73.482 128.608 175.108
hhhhhhhhhhh

1Q22 18.959 71.309 109.327 161.677 50

2Q22 2.059 8.009 15.029 20.979

3Q22 -1.736 23.164 7.792 32.692 0

4Q22 13.567 42.067 26.269 54.769

2022 8.210 36.110 39.615 67.515

-50
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov
2023 4.056 21.806 -0.776 16.974

2024 1.699 23.199 -16.332 5.168

Dutch front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh Dutch day-ahead peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh

Coal 40% Gas 49.13% adjusted gas 55% adjusted coal 40%
300 200

250
150

200
100
150 hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

50
100

0
50

0 -50
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 21 19 Oct 21 3 Nov 21 18 Nov 21

Italian ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh

ARA ARA Coal
European front-month base-load dark €/MWh PSV
Coal 40% (incl.
55%
40% fuel tax)
Germany Italy UK
150 base peak base peak base peak
Contract
load load load load load load

125 Day ahead 47.097 62.847 136.687 152.437 132.459 148.209

December 50.973 89.973 140.754 179.754 136.527 175.527

100 January 44.791 73.441 135.991 164.641 131.764 160.414
hhhhhhhhhhh

February 34.846 67.446 136.108 168.708 131.880 164.480

75
1Q22 32.341 64.491 122.527 154.677 118.299 150.449

2Q22 9.968 17.118 25.029 32.179 20.802 27.952

50
3Q22 17.923 27.823 29.542 39.442 25.314 35.214

25 4Q22 17.035 32.385 31.919 47.269 27.692 43.042

4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov 2022 19.314 35.464 52.265 68.415 48.038 64.188

2023 11.011 20.011 7.724 16.724 3.496 12.496

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spark spreads

French ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh French calendar-year peak-load dark €/MWh
ARA Coal 40% Peg 55%
ETS adjusted ARA coal 40% unadjusted ARA coal 40%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load 180
Working day ahead 135.187 148.187 48.234 61.234
160
December 165.954 239.954 74.355 148.355

January 187.291 287.791 94.837 195.337 140

February 192.608 293.108 91.437 191.937

120 hhhhhhhhhhh

1Q22 165.677 260.677 75.537 170.537

2Q22 7.179 39.179 -5.882 26.118 100

3Q22 7.492 39.492 -1.982 30.018 80

4Q22 37.569 82.469 - -

2022 54.515 105.415 23.228 74.128

60
4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov
2023 1.574 28.974 - -

2024 -14.332 8.468 - -

French front-month base-load spreads €/MWh French calendar-year base-load dark €/MWh

Coal 40% Gas 49.13% ETS adjusted ARA coal 40% unadjusted ARA coal 40%
250 120

200
100

150
80
100 hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

60
50

40
0

-50 20
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov

French front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh Germany VTP vs Peg front-month base-load spark €/MWh

Coal 40% Gas 49.13% Germany VTP gas 55% France PEG gas 55%
350 80

300
60
250

200 40
hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

150 20
100
0
50

0 -20
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

Shipping costs

Dry bulk freight rates Asia-Pacific freight analysis

Route Size ’000t $/t ± Energy Size Freight Coal $/t
Route Basis kcal/kg ’000t $/t fob landed ±
Panamax
Murmansk-Rotterdam 75 11.95 -0.15 EC Australia-Japan NAR 6,000 75 16.50 153.69 170.19 -1.00
Richards Bay-Rotterdam 75 18.90 -0.25
EC Australia-S Korea NAR 6,000 75 15.85 153.69 169.54 -0.95
Puerto Bolivar-Rotterdam 75 20.90 -0.25
EC Australia-Japan 75 16.50 -1.00 EC Australia-S China NAR 5,500 75 16.75 106.56 123.31 -1.05
EC Australia-S Korea 75 15.85 -0.95
EC Australia-EC India NAR 5,500 75 19.75 106.56 126.31 -1.20
EC Australia-S China 75 16.75 -1.05
EC Australia-EC India 75 19.75 -1.20 Indonesia-Japan GAR 6,500 75 10.50 154.41 164.91 -0.70

Indonesia-S China 75 8.90 -0.65 Indonesia-Japan GAR 5,800 75 10.50 137.87 148.37 -0.70
Indonesia-EC India 75 11.80 -0.55
Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,800 75 9.30 137.87 147.17 -0.70
Indonesia-Japan 75 10.50 -0.70
Indonesia-South Korea 75 9.30 -0.70 Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,000 75 9.30 117.58 126.88 -0.70
Capesize
Indonesia-S China GAR 5,800 75 8.90 137.87 146.77 -0.65
Richards Bay-Rotterdam 150 14.75 +0.90
Puerto Bolivar-Rotterdam 160 15.25 +0.20 Indonesia-S China GAR 5,000 75 8.90 117.58 126.48 -0.65

Newcastle-Zhoushan 130 16.55 +0.70 Indonesia-S China GAR 4,200 75 8.90 81.53 90.43 -0.65
Newcastle-Fangcheng 130 16.55 +0.70
Indonesia-EC India GAR 4,200 75 11.80 81.53 93.33 -0.55
Richards Bay-S China 150 17.40 +1.20
Richards Bay-Krishnapatnam 150 14.40 +0.35 Indonesia-EC India GAR 3,400 75 11.80 50.13 61.93 -0.55

Richards Bay-Rotterdam, Capesize $/t Australia to south China, Capesize $/t

35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
15 15

10 10

5 5
11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 09 Nov 20 12 Mar 21 16 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Capesize $/t Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Panamax $/t

35 30.0

30
25.0
25

20 20.0
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
15
15.0
10

5 10.0
11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21

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Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224  |  Thursday 18 November 2021

Argus Coal Daily International Methodology

Argus successfully completes annual Iosco
assurance review Argus uses a precise and
transparent methodology to
Argus has completed the ninth external assurance

methodoLogy and specifications gUide

assess prices in all the markets
review of its price benchmarks covering crude oil, it covers. The latest version of
the Argus Coal Daily International argUs coaL daiLy internationaL
products, LPG, petrochemicals, biofuels, thermal
Methodology can be found at:
Contents:
Methodology overview 2
The market 5

coal, coking coal, iron ore, steel, natural gas and

Transactions 5

www.argusmedia.com/methodology.
Market survey 5
Assessment timing 5
Forward prices 6
Shipping costs 6
Generating costs 6

biomass benchmarks. The review was carried out by

professional services firm PwC. Annual independent, For a hard copy, please email
external reviews of oil benchmarks are required by info@argusmedia.com, but
please note that methodogies
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Oil Price Reporting Agencies, and Iosco encourages the latest version, you should Last Updated: march 2017
The most up-to-date Argus Coal Daily International methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

visit the internet site. www.argusmedia.com

extension of the reviews to non-oil benchmarks. For

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