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Argus: Coal Daily International
Argus: Coal Daily International
ARA coal stocks Argus Richards Bay spot coal assessment $/t
China coal imports
Coal: Turkey power generation 250
South Korea nuclear generation and availability
South Korea coal imports
200
Contents 150
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Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App
Licensed to: Praveen Kumat, Black Gold International Private Ltd
Argus Coal Daily International Issue 21-224 | Thursday 18 November 2021
weekly prices
Off-specification South African prices and differentials for 12 Nov 2021 $/t
Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± Weekly index December * January * Nov MTD † Oct final †
5,700 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 127.16 +4.17 -6.50 -6.60 -6.40 -6.67 -9.17
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 107.14 -0.03 -18.40 -15.05 -14.65 -16.50 -22.81
4,800 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 86.70 +2.51 -25.30 -25.85 -24.70 -25.77 -34.87
* Differential to API 4 swap for the month based on market survey. † Average of weekly spot price assessments based on deals and market survey.
International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 $/t International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 RMB/t
Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± Energy Basis Timing Port Price ±
Europe China
5,700 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA 143.00 -4.00 fob Qinhuangdao
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths na na
Black Sea and Mediterranean domestic
cif Turkey mini bulk 3,800 kcal NAR 2mths ddp East China 685.60 -89.65
6,000 kcal NAR 1mth 169.25 -18.25
plus 3,800 kcal NAR 2mths cfr East China 606.73 -79.33
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif Turkey supra plus 168.00 -18.25
Russia
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Baltic ports 133.13 na
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 132.67 na
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 111.00 na
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Black Sea 134.50 na
Australia
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 153.69 -5.60
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 106.56 -6.80 Argus fob Richards Bay spot coal assessments $/t
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths fob Newcastle 130.29 -5.49 fob RB 6000 fob RB 5700 fob RB 5500
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths fob Newcastle (basis 136.58 -5.75 250
NAR 6,080 kcal)
Northeast Asia
200
fob Qinhuangdao
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths na na
domestic
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr south China 144.38 -25.95 150
3,800 kcal NAR 2mths ddp East China 107.02 -14.15 hhh
3,800 kcal NAR 2mths cfr East China 94.71 -12.52 100
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths cfr South Korea 159.62 -2.91
cfr South Korea (basis
5,800 kcal NAR 3mths 167.33 -3.05 50
NAR 6,080 kcal)
India
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr east India 132.75 -7.58 0
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 131.59 -15.41 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 97.53 -15.36
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths cfr west India 132.88 -15.54
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths cfr west India 98.66 -15.84 Argus fob Newcastle spot coal assessments $/t
Indonesia
fob Newc 5500 fob Newc 6000
6,500 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 154.41 -17.58
300
5,800 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 137.87 -12.30
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 117.58 -10.74 250
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 81.53 -8.96
3,400 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 50.13 -7.88 200
150 hhh
International coal assessments for 12 Nov 2021 $/t
Energy Basis Timing Port Price ± 100
Americas 50
11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob Puerto Bolivar 164.00 -5.00
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Hampton Roads 126.90-138.30 -0.37 0
11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob New Orleans 116.00 -6.00 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
commentary
commentary
Kalimantan. This market was last assessed by Argus at Open Trade Volumes, t 48608.00 -37798.00
$81.53/t fob Kalimantan on 12 November. Data source: Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange
fob Indonesian prices $/t ICI 4 front month swap vs physical spot $/t
fob Indo 6500 GAR fob Indo 5800 GAR ICI 4 M1 swap fob Indo 4200
fob Indo 5000 GAR fob Indo 4200 GAR 175
fob Indo 3400 GAR
250 150
200 125
100 75
50 50
0 25
1 Dec 20 30 Mar 21 26 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 24 Nov 20 24 Mar 21 23 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
China’s Qinhuangdao coal stocks decline market due to expectations of a colder than normal winter.
Inventories at China’s key coal trans-shipment port of Qinhuangdao At China’s other major coal trans-shipment port of
fell against the previous week amid a surge in offtake. Caofeidian, stockpiles were at 3.68mn t on 16 November,
Forecasts of a series of cold snaps for the rest of up from 3.5mn t on 10 November, the latest CCTD data for
November may have prompted utilities to step up purchases the port shows. Offtake levels for the week to 16 November
of prompt cargoes, as Chinese consumers adopt a shorter- were at 1.5mn t, nearly double compared with 732,000t in
term approach to seasonal restocking amid unpredictable the week to 10 November. Inbound deliveries for the week
government price intervention measures. to 16 November were at 1.72mn t, up from 1.51mn t in the
Coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao port were at 5.43mn t week to 10 November.
yesterday, down from 5.65mn t a week earlier, according There were 14 vessels loading at Caofeidian port
to data from coal industry association the CCTD. The latest yesterday, with seven more awaiting entry.
weekly fall reversed a few consecutive weeks of increases, By Kelvin Leong
when utilities held back to observe if spot prices of domestic
coal could stabilise amid unprecedented government-led China boosts financing for cleaner coal use
market interventions. China’s central government plans to increase financing
Offtake for the week to yesterday stood at 3.8mn t, up for cleaner uses of coal, in a bid to achieve national
significantly from 2.92mn t for the previous week, CCTD data decarbonisation targets with the country's continued
shows. Inbound deliveries for the week to yesterday were at reliance on the fuel.
3.58mn t, up slightly from 3.46mn t a week earlier. Weekly The government will put aside an additional relending
inbound deliveries had jumped significantly to around 4mn fund totalling 200bn yuan ($31.4bn) specifically for efficient,
t early this month from weekly levels lower than 3mn t in intelligent and greener coal mining and its use. The fund
early October when suppliers and wholesalers were under will also facilitate development and use of coal-seam gas,
threat by authorities to ramp up deliveries to counter a according to a statement released after a 17 November
severe shortage in October. The drive to raise deliveries meeting of China's state council hosted by premier Li Keqiang.
appears to have lost steam nearer to mid-November, Chinese banks will provide loans to eligible projects with
potentially because of resistance by some wholesalers the rates of interest kept at market levels to similar types of
deterred by government-imposed price caps at ports, other bank loans. The People’s Bank of China, the country’s
Chinese participants said. central bank, will allocate the relending equivalent to the
The vessel queue at Qinhuangdao port averaged 60.85/d principal of the loans to these banks.
for the week to yesterday, significantly higher than 45.71/d a The Chinese government is also considering lowering the
week earlier, according to Argus calculations based on CCTD required share of capital, giving appropriate tax incentives,
data. Freight rates for 50,000-60,000t vessels delivering providing government bonds, and accelerating the projects
coal from Qinhuangdao to the southern Chinese port of designed for cleaner and efficient use of coal.
Guangzhou were around 82 yuan/t yesterday, significantly Market participants expect a significant portion of the
higher than around Yn71/t a month earlier, according to CCTD increased financing to be used for upgrading coal-fired
freight data. Some Chinese vessel owners expect a bullish generation units. China’s main economic planning agency the
NDRC early this month set out a detailed plan for coal-fired
power units to upgrade to be less coal intensive.
Change to sulphur limits for Indonesian coal Coal remains China’s main source of fuel for energy,
prices although the country has reduced its share in its overall
Following consultation, from 7 January 2022, Argus will energy consumption mix. Coal consumption increased by
change the sulphur limits for the following assessments. 0.6pc in 2020 from the previous year, the National Bureau of
The three assessments are components of ICI indexes: Statistics said, without giving a specific consumption figure.
On an as received basis: The share of coal accounted for 56.8pc of China’s overall
Argus fob Indonesia 5,800 (Kalimantan) maximum energy use in 2020, down by 0.9 percentage points from the
sulphur content will rise to 1pc from 0.8pc (ICI 2) previous year.
Argus fob Indonesia 5,000 (Kalimantan) maximum China’s reliance on coal has become even more apparent
sulphur content will rise to 1pc from 0.6pc (ICI 3) in the past two years. An economic rebound after the
Argus fob Indonesia 3,400 (Kalimantan) maximum impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and a reduction in ageing
sulphur content will rise to 0.4pc from 0.2pc (ICI 5) and inefficient coal capacity since 2016 has contributed to a
severe shortfall of coal supplies late last year and this year, top three source markets of Indonesia, Australia and Russia.
pushing coal prices to historical highs. Indonesia remained the principal source of coal imports for
More financing for raising the efficiency of coal Vietnam, but its shipments declined to 859,960t, down from
consumption might help China achieve its goal of reaching 1.61mn t in October last year.
peak carbon and carbon neutrality by 2030 and 2060 Australian coal receipts also declined sharply to 852,203t
respectively, as set out by President Xi Jinping last year. from 1.23mn t in October 2020. Imports from Russia slipped
to 341,410t compared with 506,742t in October last year.
Vietnam’s coal imports ease in October By Ajay Modi
Vietnamese coal imports in October fell from a year earlier
even as the country’s coal-fired power generation expanded Japan’s utilities rebuild LNG stocks in November
on the year. Japan’s main power utilities have increased their LNG
Seaborne receipts fell for the 11th straight month in inventories since the end of October, with four utilities
October from a year earlier to 2.1mn t, down from 3.7mn saving the use of the fuel ahead of winter peak electricity
t a year earlier. Imports were unchanged month-on-month demand season.
at 2.1mn t from September. Both September and October Utilities held 2.2mn t of LNG as of 15 November, up by
receipts are the lowest since February when imports stood 6.3pc from 2.07mn t at the end of October, according to a
at 1.9mn t. survey by the country’s trade and industry ministry (Meti).
Vietnamese customs data do not differentiate between The latest figure was higher by 37.5pc from a year earlier and
coking and thermal coal. The decline last month was from a up by 20pc from the four-year average for that time of year.
relatively high base in October 2020. Vietnamese coal users, Utility LNG stocks fell sharply during October, declining
including power plants and cement mills, had increased by 390,000t from 2.46mn t at the end of September.
purchases last year to capitalise on weaker seaborne prices. Warmer-than-usual weather sustained electricity demand
But record high coal prices in October, coupled with for cooling purposes, which boosted gas-fired power output
historically high freight, has weighed on appetite in especially when five coal-fired units with a combined
the recent months. Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg (NAR capacity of 3,081MW were closed for technical issues.
3,800 kcal/kg) coal, assessed by Argus, hit $154.21/t fob Chugoku Electric Power, Kyushu Electric Power, Hokuriku
Kalimantan on 22 October, the highest since assessments Electric Power and Shikoku Electric Power are planning to
began in 2008. Coal prices have softened since then with the reduce output capacity at their gas-fired power this month,
last assessment at $81.53/t on 12 November. claiming that this will save fuel consumption.
Vietnam's renewable power generation rose to 1.42TWh At least 11 gas-fed units are scheduled to reduce output,
in October, rising from 0.79TWh in the same month last with the combined daily average capacity loss estimated
year, according to Argus' estimates based on data from state- at 2,057MW during 7-13 November, 2,856MW during 14-20
controlled generation firm EVN. November and 2,821MW during 21-27 November, according to
Coal-fired generation increased to 8.11TWh from 6.45TWh Argus' calculation based on a power plant operational status
a year earlier and from 7.4TWh in September. Coal-based notice from the Japan Electric Power Exchange.
power accounted for the chunk of the country's generation Japan is expected to avoid power shortage during upcoming
mix, and the is likely to remain a leading source in the near winter, even if the coldest weather in the past decade hits the
future despite Vietnam's renewable energy push. country. But reserve levels remain low, with the Tokyo area
Overall electricity generation rose to 20.1TWh last forecast to have a 3.2pc in January and 3.1pc in February, just
month, up from 19.8TWh in October 2020 and also higher above a minimum 3pc needed to tackle emergencies such as
from 18.2TWh in September, according to the general power plant closures and spikes in peak demand.
statistics office. Vietnamese domestic coal production was Japan's power agency the Organisation for Cross-Regional
4.26mn t in October, up from 4.1mn t in the same month last Coordination of Transmission Operators forecast on 12
year but down from 4.35mn t in September. November that Japan will have a surplus of 12,046GWh from
The country’s index of industrial production for October 13 November-12 January, based on expected inventories of
2021 was estimated 1.6pc lower from the year earlier but thermal fuels. This is estimated to fall to 9,327GWh with
higher by 6.9pc on the month. The index increased by 3.3pc the coldest weather in the past decade, which can meet
in the first 10 months compared with the year earlier. electricity demand of 3.8 days.
Meti started to survey LNG stocks held by main power
Imports decline across origins utilities every two weeks, after the country's power
Vietnam’s coal imports slipped on the year from each of the sector experienced a severe LNG shortage in January that
Nov-16
Feb-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Nov-21
May-17
Aug-17
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Aug-20
May-21
Aug-21
year-ahead has been driven by plunging European gas prices.
Month-ahead TTF gas prices almost halved from their record
European fuel-switch levels EUR/MWh
high on the prospect of rising Russian gas flows into Europe.
The Chinese government’s intervention to ease domestic 100 Forward
46-50% gas vs 42% coal
coal tightness by capping domestic prices also put pressure 90
51-55% gas vs 42% coal
on near-term European coal prices. 80 56-60% gas vs 42% coal
TTF day-ahead
Although the backwardation in the API 2 swaps has 70
TTF forward (17 Nov)
eased, the premium remains at an elevated level in 60
Jul-22
Jul-21
Jul-20
Jul-19
Nov-22
Jul-18
Nov-21
Nov-20
Mar-22
Nov-19
Mar-21
Sep-22
Nov-18
Mar-20
Sep-21
Mar-19
Sep-20
Jan-22
May-22
Mar-18
Sep-19
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-18
Jan-20
May-20
Jan-19
May-19
Jan-18
May-18
spring next year," Tauron said. operations in planned schedule,” Tauron said.
Tauron’s coal-fired output stood at 3.3TWh in the third Tauron burned around 4.8mn t of coal in January-
quarter this year, up by 35pc on the year. Coal output for September, with 58pc of the coal supplied by its subsidiary
January-September was 10.15TWh, up by 39pc on the year. Tauron Wydobycie, which operates three coal mines.
The increase was largely attributed to stronger power Tauron Wydobycie's coal output fell by 9pc on the year to
export demand in Europe amid surging gas and power prices, 1mn t in the third quarter, although the decline was partially
Tauron said. Lower wind and biomass generation as well as caused by modernisation works conducted to increase
demand recovery in Poland also contributed to higher coal output in this winter, Tauron said. Tauron Wydobycie's coal
burn, it added. production was 3.7mn t in January-September, up by 3pc on
Tauron owns a total of 5GW generation capacity in the year.
Poland, of which 87pc is coal-fired. Stronger wholesale power prices boosted the firm’s
Poland’s newest and largest coal-fired plant — the generation division profits, although its supply division was
910MW Jaworzno, which is owned by Tauron — is expected negatively impacted.
to remain off line until at least April 2022, following an Tauron’s net profits stood at 457mn zlotys ($114mn) for
unplanned repair outage in June. January-September, up by 15pc on the year. Net profits for
“Forward contract for sales of power in 2022 included July-September were 101mn zlotys, down by 73pc on the year.
volume from the Jaworzno plant, assuming return to By Tomasz Stepien
spark spreads
UK ETS and CSP adjusted spark and dark spreads £/MWh UK unadjusted spark spreads £/MWh
NBP 55% ARA Coal 40% NBP 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load
Working day ahead 26.435 40.435 81.900 95.900 Working day ahead 37.374 51.374
Summer 2022 16.926 28.926 16.449 28.449 Summer 2022 35.860 47.860
UK front-month peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh UK front-month base-load spark vs dark £/MWh
120
175
100
150
hhhhhhhhhhh 80 hhhhhhhhhhh
125
60
100 40
75 20
4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov
Announcement
To allow for the continued publication of UK power plant generating margins from 1 January 2021, Argus will calculate UK emissions-
adjusted dark and spark spreads using EU ETS prices as the cost of carbon until the prices of UK allowances diverge.
spark spreads
German ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh German unadjusted dark spreads €/MWh
Germany VTP 55% ARA Coal 40% ARA Coal 40%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load
Working day ahead -61.380 -23.130 26.937 65.187 Working day ahead 85.478 123.728
40
30
20
hhhhhhhhhhh
10
spark spreads
Dutch ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh Dutch front-month base-load spreads €/MWh
TTF 55% ARA Coal 40%
Coal 40% Gas 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load 200
Working day ahead 9.370 15.870 97.187 103.687
150
December 12.491 56.991 104.454 148.954
Dutch front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh Dutch day-ahead peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh
Coal 40% Gas 49.13% adjusted gas 55% adjusted coal 40%
300 200
250
150
200
100
150 hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh
50
100
0
50
0 -50
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 21 19 Oct 21 3 Nov 21 18 Nov 21
spark spreads
French ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh French calendar-year peak-load dark €/MWh
ARA Coal 40% Peg 55%
ETS adjusted ARA coal 40% unadjusted ARA coal 40%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load 180
Working day ahead 135.187 148.187 48.234 61.234
160
December 165.954 239.954 74.355 148.355
French front-month base-load spreads €/MWh French calendar-year base-load dark €/MWh
Coal 40% Gas 49.13% ETS adjusted ARA coal 40% unadjusted ARA coal 40%
250 120
200
100
150
80
100 hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh
60
50
40
0
-50 20
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov
French front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh Germany VTP vs Peg front-month base-load spark €/MWh
Coal 40% Gas 49.13% Germany VTP gas 55% France PEG gas 55%
350 80
300
60
250
200 40
hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh
150 20
100
0
50
0 -20
20 Aug 21 Sep 20 Oct 18 Nov 4 Oct 19 Oct 3 Nov 18 Nov
Shipping costs
Indonesia-S China 75 8.90 -0.65 Indonesia-Japan GAR 5,800 75 10.50 137.87 148.37 -0.70
Indonesia-EC India 75 11.80 -0.55
Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,800 75 9.30 137.87 147.17 -0.70
Indonesia-Japan 75 10.50 -0.70
Indonesia-South Korea 75 9.30 -0.70 Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,000 75 9.30 117.58 126.88 -0.70
Capesize
Indonesia-S China GAR 5,800 75 8.90 137.87 146.77 -0.65
Richards Bay-Rotterdam 150 14.75 +0.90
Puerto Bolivar-Rotterdam 160 15.25 +0.20 Indonesia-S China GAR 5,000 75 8.90 117.58 126.48 -0.65
Newcastle-Zhoushan 130 16.55 +0.70 Indonesia-S China GAR 4,200 75 8.90 81.53 90.43 -0.65
Newcastle-Fangcheng 130 16.55 +0.70
Indonesia-EC India GAR 4,200 75 11.80 81.53 93.33 -0.55
Richards Bay-S China 150 17.40 +1.20
Richards Bay-Krishnapatnam 150 14.40 +0.35 Indonesia-EC India GAR 3,400 75 11.80 50.13 61.93 -0.55
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
15 15
10 10
5 5
11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 09 Nov 20 12 Mar 21 16 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Capesize $/t Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Panamax $/t
35 30.0
30
25.0
25
20 20.0
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
15
15.0
10
5 10.0
11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21 11 Nov 20 16 Mar 21 20 Jul 21 18 Nov 21
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Market survey 5
Assessment timing 5
Forward prices 6
Shipping costs 6
Generating costs 6
Announcement
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