Cive1219 1630 At2

CIVE1219 – Transport Engineering 3
Assessment Task 2 – Transport Modelling

Submission deadline: Friday 8 July 2016
1. Evaluation of Adding a New Link to Transportation Network
The Council of a town has been presented with a development proposal for an industrial
development located in the south-west sector of the town, in the Council’s planning zone 3
(Figure 1). This will increase employment for the whole town, which is currently experiencing a
mild recession and consequently the Council is very keen for the project to go ahead.
Key:
Zone Centroid
Road Links
Dummy Links
Figure 1: Town map showing transport zones.
However, the Council is concerned about the likely effect of the development on traffic
circulation in the town. The main concern is that the existing single bridge over the town river may
provide poor access to the industrial development for residents of the northern suburbs. Another
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consideration is that the development of a number of recreational facilities on the northern side of
the town is likely to result in a continuation of the trend for people to want to live in the northern
suburbs. This will magnify the problem of having only a single river crossing.
The Council is exploring the feasibility of developing a second bridge crossing near the new
development. You have been asked to consider the likely distribution of traffic in 10 years time,
with and without the second bridge crossing, but assuming that the development goes ahead.
1.1. Data and Background Information
The project manager has collected some information from the Council and other sources and
has also made a number of comments about elements of the analysis.
The Council’s Department of Planning has produced predictions of the population and
employment in each of the Council’s planning zones for the year 2020 (Table 1). The figures are
based on the assumption that the new industrial development improves and the residential shift
towards the northern suburbs continues.
Table 1: Population and employment predictions for the year 2020.
Zone Population Employment

1 6000 9250
2 22500 3750
3 14500 5000
4 29000 5250
5 16500 2750
6 26500 4500
7 14000 3250
Total 129000 33750
The following data (Table 2) have been obtained from a nearby town that has similar travel
characteristics to the study town. The data in Table 2 can be used to develop peak period work trip
production and peak period work trip attraction models. Those models should be tested using
standard tests for regression models. If the models are satisfactory, they are used to obtain peak
period productions and attractions for each traffic zone using the data in Table 1. The forecast
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attractions should be factored in order that the sum of the attractions (across all zones) equals the sum
of the forecast productions (across all zones).
Table 2: Trip generation data.
AM peak period
AM peak period
Zone work trip Population Employment
work trip attractions
productions
16 2000 8500 6500 9000
24 5500 7500 23000 5000
33 4500 2250 12000 1500
21 8500 4500 27000 4500
52 4000 3750 16000 3500
37 6000 4250 23000 4000
49 4500 2500 12000 2500
Total 35000 33250 119500 30000
The trip distribution analysis is to be performed using a production constrained gravity model.
Use a five percent closure criterion for the row and column balancing (0.95 < Nj < 1.05 and 0.95 <
Mi < 1.05).
Figure 2 shows the travel times on each link in the transportation network. In this analysis, it is
assumed that the link travel times are constant and they are not affected by the traffic volumes in the
links. Using this network information you will need to determine two O-D travel time matrices (one
for the single bridge case and another for the two bridge case). Note that the intrazonal travel times
(i.e. travel times within each zone such as trips from zone 3 to zone 3) can be assumed to be 4 minutes.
The following travel time equation can be used for the calculations:
f (tij )  (tij ) 2 (1)
The Monroe residents have a choice between either driving or taking the bus or train. You
are also acting as a consultant to the bus company to forecast the effects of some new operating
policies. A logit mode choice model has been calibrated from citywide travel data and that model is
available for the analysis.
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Key:
Zone Centroid
Road Links
Dummy Links
Nodes
() Link Travel Times
Figure 2: The link travel times in road transportation network.
The utility function for the logit model is as follows:
Vm = 1.1DAD + 0.6CPDDA - 0.17IVTTm - 0.30OVTTm – 1.22OPCINCm
where
Vm = utility of mode m,
DAD = drive alone dummy variable (1.0 for drive alone and 0.0 for all other modes),
CPDDA = cars per driver for the drive alone mode (number of cars per driver for the
drive alone mode can be assumed as 1.0 and 0.0 for all other modes),
IVTTm = in-vehicle travel time for the mode
OVTTm = out-of-vehicle travel time for the mode (includes walking and waiting times)
OPCINCm = out-of-pocket costs divided by income (OPC in $’s, INC in $’000).
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The following details describe the current characteristics of the modes (Table 3). The median
annual earnings amount to $50,000 for all employees.
Table 3: Current characteristics of each mode.
Mode Characteristics Car Bus Train

In-vehicle time (min) 44 52 41
Out-of-vehicle time (min) 5 11 8
Out-of-pocket cost ($) 9.50 3.80 5.20
1.2. Required outputs
Your supervisor has asked for estimates of:
1. Peak period directional trips over the current bridge (prior to construction of the second
bridge).
2. Peak period directional trips on both bridges once the new bridge is built.
3. Write out the utility expression for each mode. Are the signs and relative magnitudes of the
coefficients logical?
4. Use the model to predict the bus ridership and revenue for the morning service.
5. The bus operator believes it may be possible to lobby the State Government to install
express bus lanes between zones 1 and 7. Under this scenario the in-vehicle time for the bus
would be reduced by 12%. Predict the effects of this on bus ridership and revenue.
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2. Comparison of Different Traffic Assignment Approaches
In the following simple network, 4 nodes exist. In this network, nodes 1 and 2 are origins and
node 4 is a destination. Node 3 is termed a trans-shipment node (Figure 3).
Figure 3: A simple transportation network with 4 nodes and 5 links.
The link service functions for each link in the above network are as follows:
t14 = 22 + 0.015V14
t24 = 22 + 0.015V24
t13 = 10 + 0.005V13
t34 = 8 + 0.005V34
t23 = 15 + 0.005V23
where t is the link travel time and V is the link volume. Assume the O-D volumes are fixed at the
following values (superscripts indicate O-D volumes):
V14 = 13000
V24 = 11000
2.1. Required outputs
1. Using all-or-nothing assignment, find the link volumes and travel times.
2. Using incremental assignment with five increments of 20%, find the link volumes and travel
times.
3. Compare and comment on the results from parts 1 and 2 above.
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CIVE1219 – Transport Engineering 3

Assessment Task 2 – Transport Modelling

1. Evaluation of Adding a New Link to Transportation Network

Figure 1: Town map showing transport zones.

1.1. Data and Background Information

Table 1: Population and employment predictions for the year 2020.

Zone Population Employment

Table 2: Trip generation data.

f (tij )  (tij ) 2 (1)

Figure 2: The link travel times in road transportation network.

The utility function for the logit model is as follows:

Vm = 1.1DAD + 0.6CPDDA - 0.17IVTTm - 0.30OVTTm – 1.22OPCINCm

Table 3: Current characteristics of each mode.

Mode Characteristics Car Bus Train

1.2. Required outputs

Your supervisor has asked for estimates of:

Figure 3: A simple transportation network with 4 nodes and 5 links.

2.1. Required outputs

3. Compare and comment on the results from parts 1 and 2 above.

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