Collective Risk Model
Collective Risk Model
Collective Risk Model
Vincent Tu
1
1/47 References: MW 1/ (A 12)
School of Risk and Actuarial Studies
Plan
1 Introduction
2 The Individual Risk Model
Definition
Convolutions of random variables
Using generating functions
3 The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
Definition
The distribution of S
4 Explicit claims count distributions
Introduction
Binomial distribution
Poisson distribution
Mixed Poisson distribution
Negative-binomial distribution
5 Parameter estimation
Introduction
Method of moments
Maximum likelihood estimators
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Introduction
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The Individual Risk Model
Convolutions of random variables
FX +Y +Z = FZ ∗ FX +Y .
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The Individual Risk Model
Convolutions of random variables
Formulas
* Review Convolution !
* In short
Discrete case:
P X=x
df: FX +Y (s) = Px FY (s − x) fX (x)
pmf: fX +Y (s) = x fY (s − x) fX (x) Y = s -x
Continuous case:
Rs
cdf: FX +Y (s) = −∞ FY (s − x) fX (x) dx
Rs
pdf: fX +Y (s) = −∞ fY (s − x) fX (x) dx
Examples
discrete case: see [A], Example 2.3.1 on page 35
continuous case: see [A], Example 2.3.2 on page 36
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The Individual Risk Model
Convolutions of random variables
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The Individual Risk Model
Convolutions of random variables
Solution
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The Individual Risk Model
Using generating functions
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The Individual Risk Model
Using generating functions
Example
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
Definition
Introduction
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
Definition
Definition
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
Moments of S
and
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
w.r.t N w.r.t x
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
Example (A 12.2.1)
Pr[N = n] = pq n , n = 0, 1, . . . ,
p p
MS (t) = MN (ln MX (t)) = ln M (t)
= .
1 − qe X 1 − qMX (t)
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
Distribution of S
∞
X ∞
X
FS (x) = Pr[S ≤ x|N = n] Pr[N = n] = P ∗n (x) Pr[N = n],
n=0 n=0
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
Distribution of S if X is continuous
(1)
If X is continuous, S will generally be mixed:
with a mass at 0 because of Pr[N = 0] (if positive)
continuous elsewhere, but with a density integrating to
1 − Pr[N = 0] <-- conditional on more than 1 claim
Example (A 12.2.3)
Consider the previous example with P(x) = 1 − e −x . Note
that Pr[N = 0] = p.
It is shown in A that the mgf of S can be written as
p h i
= pE e t·0 + (1 − p)E e tY ,
MS (t) = p + q
p−t
P(N=0) P(N>0)
where Y is an exponential rv with parameter p.
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The Collective Risk Model (Compound distributions)
The distribution of S
Distribution of S if X is discrete
(2)
For discrete X ’s we can get a similar expression for the pmf of S:
∞
X ∞
X
fS (x) = Pr[S = x|N = n] Pr[N = n] = p ∗n (x) Pr[N = n],
n=0 n=0
Distribution of S if X is mixed
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Explicit claims count distributions
Introduction
Negative Binomial(r , p)
E [N] < Var (N)
S is compound Negative Binomial with parameters (r , p, P(x))
Binomial(m, p)
E [N] > Var (N)
S is compound Binomial with parameters (m, p, P(x))
less popular
A summary table is given in [A], Table 12.3.1 on page 376.
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Explicit claims count distributions
Introduction
Binomial distribution
fixed volume v ∈ N
fixed default probability p ∈ (0, 1) (expected claims frequency)
pmf of N ∼ Binom(v , p) is
v k
pk = Pr[N = k] = p (1 − p)v −k
k
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
Poisson distribution
(λv )k
pk = Pr[N = k] = e −λv
k!
note: only λv matters (useful)
Lemma 2.9: increase volume while keeping E [N] fixed in a
binomial model leads to a Poisson distribution (more so for
small p compared to v )
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution Freq
x Pr [X = x]
1 0.250
2 0.375
3 0.375
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Explicit claims count distributions
Poisson distribution
MN (t) = MΛ (e t − 1)
α
β
=
β − (e t − 1)
α
β/(β + 1)
=
1 − [1 − β/(β + 1)]e t
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Explicit claims count distributions
Negative-binomial distribution
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Parameter estimation
Introduction
Estimation methods
You should be familiar with the main estimation methods:
Method of moments: Suppose for a r.v. X , the first kth
moments are finite and can be expressed as functions of the
parameters, θ1 , θ2 , · · · , θk :
µ1 := E [X ] = g1 (θ1 , · · · , θk )
..
.
µk := E [X k ] = g1 (θ1 , · · · , θk ).
Then the method of moments estimator, θ̂1 , · · · , θ̂k , is the
solution to the following equations:
µ̂1 = g1 (θ̂1 , · · · , θ̂k )
..
.
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Parameter estimation
Introduction
Lemma 2.26
Assume that (N1 , . . . , NT )0 is the vector of observations.
Here the problem is slightly complicated because our
observations may not be directly comparable due to varying
exposures v ’s.
Assume there exist strictly positive volumes v1 , . . . , vT such
that the components of (N1 /v1 , . . . , NT /vT ) are independent
with
Nt 2 Nt
λ=E and τt = Var ∈ (0, ∞), t = 1, . . . , T .
vt vt
Then the unbiased, linear estimator for λ with minimal
variance is:
T
!−1 T
MV
X 1 X Nt /vt
λ
b
T = .
t=1 t
τ2 t=1
τt2
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Parameter estimation
Method of moments
Binomial case
Suppose Nt ∼ Binomial(vt , p)
Need to estimate p:
Note E [Nt /vt ] = p
τt2 = Var (Nt /vt ) = p(1 − p)/vt
Then, the unbiased, minimal variance estimator for p:
T
!−1 T
X 1 X Nt /vt
pbTMV =
τ2
t=1 t t=1
τt2
T
1 X
= PT Nt
s=1 vs t=1
T
X vt Nt
= PT
v
s=1 vs t
t=1
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Parameter estimation
Method of moments
Poisson case
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Parameter estimation
Method of moments
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Parameter estimation
Method of moments
Then we have
T PT !
(λbNB )2 1 X vt2
bTNB
γ = T
vt − Pt=1
T
,
V −λ T −1
b 2 b NB
T T t=1 t=1 vt
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Parameter estimation
Maximum likelihood estimators
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Parameter estimation
Maximum likelihood estimators
T
∂ X Nt + γ − 1
log + γ log(1 − pt ) + Nt log pt = 0,
∂λ∂γ Nt
t=1
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