Spatiotemporal Analysis of Traffic Congestion Caused by Rubbernecking at Freeway Accidents
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Traffic Congestion Caused by Rubbernecking at Freeway Accidents
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Traffic Congestion Caused by Rubbernecking at Freeway Accidents
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Abstract—In this paper, we present a well-specified analytical Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA,
methodology for estimating capacity reduction that is attributable USA [11], the leading cause of vehicular accidents is, in fact,
to accidents in the opposite direction of accident—the condition rubbernecking. Additionally, rubbernecking caused by vehic-
whereby drivers in the opposite direction of an accident, by virtue
of their curiosity, tend to be distracted by the accident. The ular accidents and other incidents accounted for 16% of all
methodology is based on a binary integer programming formu- vehicular accidents, whereas the total number of outside-the-
lation that is used to identify the spatiotemporal region that is car distractions accounted for 35% [11].
affected by the influence of the accident. Thresholds measured Although secondary problems caused by rubbernecking are
against control sample readings from inductance loop detectors critical, virtually most research regarding delay by incidents
are used to determine the patterns and magnitudes of the delay.
A key feature of the methodology is its ability to separate non- has been focused on quantifying congestion that is occurring
recurrent delay from any recurrent delay that is present on the in the direction of the incident [12]–[19]. On the other hand,
road at the time and place of a reported accident, to estimate the few basic studies have tried to identify the negative impact
contribution of nonrecurrent delay caused by the specific accident. of rubbernecking. For instance, they include the determination
A case study that is based on historical inductance loop detec- of capacity reduction due to the incident [9], [20], [21], the
tor data from six major freeways in Orange County, California,
is presented. Potential factors contributing to delay, including explanation of traffic oscillations due to rubbernecking using
accident characteristics, geometric characteristics, environmental a behavioral car-following model [22], and the identification of
condition, traffic characteristics, and congestion characteristics, secondary incidents due to rubbernecking [2].
are analyzed for their effects by using the semiparametric Cox However, for the purpose of the successful operation of acci-
proportional-hazards model. dent management systems, knowing the basic factors affecting
Index Terms—Binary integer programming (BIP), censored total delay caused by rubbernecking is also crucial. Thus, the
data, Cox’s proportional-hazards (PH) model, freeway accident, objective of this paper is to develop the methodology for spatial
inductive loop detector (ILD), rubbernecking, traffic congestion. and temporal estimation of the congested region caused by
I. I NTRODUCTION rubbernecking at a traffic accident and to identify its major
causal factors. The congested region is identified by binary
TABLE II
O BSERVED RUBBERNECKING S PEEDS
TABLE I
BASE C ASE OF D ISTRIBUTIONAL P ROPERTIES
FOR F REEWAY S ECTION S PEEDS
where ŝj (tm ) is any particular speed not drawn from the
distribution of sjn (tm ), s̄j (tm ) and σsj (tm ) are the mean speed
and the standard deviation speed drawn from the distribution of
sjn (tm ), and α is a positive value. Additionally, nmin obs rep-
resents to set a threshold regarding the minimum number of ob-
servations to have some confidence in the statistical calculations
for mean and standard deviation. Since 30 is commonly used as
the minimum number of observations required for the law of
large numbers to apply, it was determined that nmin obs = 30.
Using this procedure, the problem of determining the “best”
set of dot-shaded (or yellow) cells can be formulated by using
BIP as follows:
Min Z = [Pjm · δjm + (1 − Pjm ) · (1 − δjm )]
δjm
∀j,m
s.t.
Fig. 3. Maximum set of freeway sections impacted by rubbernecking. δj+k,m ≤ [1 − (δj,m − δj+1,m )] · R, ∀j, m; ∀k ≤ J − j
δj,m+r ≤ [1 − (δj,m − δj,m+1 )] · R, ∀j, m; ∀r ≤ M − m
opposite direction. The objective of this study is to apply the ≤ [1 + (δj,m − δj+1,m )] · R, ∀j, m; ∀k ≤ M − m
δj,m+k
methodology proposed by Chung and Recker [12] to the op- 0
posite direction of accident occurrence and, in turn, establish if δjm = (2)
1
the spatiotemporally congested region caused by rubbernecking
can be determined. The following steps highlight the procedure. where δ is the binary variable, R is a large number, J is the max-
1) Step 1—Determining the Maximum Extent of Rubber- imum number of upstream sections, and M is the maximum
necking Influence: The first step to identify the congested number of subinterval time periods that define the maximum
region due to rubbernecking is to estimate the maximum pos- duration assumed for congestion caused by the accident (e.g.,
sible extent of the shockwave by assuming the worst possible for 5-min subintervals and a maximum analysis time period of
conditions—total blockage for some prespecified time period. 4 h, M = 48).
Thus, for any given accident occurring in the opposite direction
of section i at time t1 , we compute the maximum number of up- III. C ASE S TUDY
stream sections that could be affected by the assumed persistent A. Data Description
total blockage at section i at time t1 . Using this spatiotemporal 1) Traffic Flow Data: This research uses one year (from
information, the “maximum area of interest” for any accident March 2001 to February 2002) of historical ILD data from six
occurring at the opposite section of section i at time t1 can major freeways in Orange County, California, i.e., Interstate
be schematically constructed. Based on this interpretation, the 405 (I-405), Interstate 5 (I-5), State Route 22 (SR-22), State
only data relevant to a rubbernecking phenomenon occurring at Route 55 (SR-55), State Route 57 (SR-57), and State Route 91
section i at time t1 are restricted to cells in the shaded (blue) (SR-91). The study area includes 499 mainline loop detector
area in Fig. 3. In Fig. 3, the cells in the dot-shaded (yellow) stations, and the average space between two consecutive de-
area represent speeds, i.e., ŝj (tm ), that have been reduced tector stations is about 0.8 mi. Since the size of the database
due to rubbernecking at the accident. Other shaded (“blue”) aggregated into 5-min intervals is over 52 000 000 records, a
cells represent speeds that are not significantly different from database management system is employed to efficiently manage
nonrubbernecking conditions. the data set, and its application program interface programs
2) Step 2—Determining the Congested Region: The second with C and C++ were employed in most analyses.
step is to distinguish between the shaded (blue) area and the
dot-shaded (yellow) area in Fig. 3. Since the speed of traf- B. Accident Data
fic in sections that are adversely affected by rubbernecking
Accident data were obtained from the Traffic Accident
will be reduced, the basic idea behind distinguishing between
Surveillance and Analysis System (TASAS) maintained by the
these two regions is to compare the rubbernecking speed, i.e.,
California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) for the six
ŝj (tm ), with the distribution of nonrubbernecking speeds, i.e.,
major Orange County freeways in 2001. Approximately 6200
sjn (tm ); n = 1, 2, . . . , nobs ; nobs ≤ T , and assign some level
accidents were included for the study period. The accident data
of confidence that any particular ŝj (tm ) was not drawn from the
include basic information related to accident time and location
distribution of sjn (tm ). Based on this idea, Chung and Recker
in terms of freeway milepost. In addition, data for each accident
[12] used the discriminant variable Pjm to identify affected
include three primary accident characteristics: 1) accident type,
versus nonaffected speed by rubbernecking as follows:
⎧ which is based on the type of collision (rear end, sideswipe, or
⎨ 0, ŝj (tm ) ≤ s̄j (tm )−α·σsj (tm ) ; nobs ≥ nmin obs hit object), the number of vehicles involved, and the movement
Pjm = 1, ŝj (tm ) > s̄j (tm )−α·σsj (tm ) ; nobs ≥ nmin obs of these vehicles prior to the accident; 2) accident location,
⎩ which is based on the location of the primary collision (e.g.,
0.5, nobs < nmin obs
(1) left lane, interior lanes, right lane, right-shoulder area, off-road
CHUNG AND RECKER: ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION CAUSED BY RUBBERNECKING AT FREEWAY ACCIDENTS 1419
beyond the right-shoulder area); and 3) accident severity, in total delay for 2394 accidents (including censored results)
terms of injuries and fatalities per vehicle. was 2.87 vehicle hours, with the minimum total delay and
the maximum total delay being 0 and 1445.44 vehicle hours,
respectively.
C. Estimation of Total Delay Due to Rubbernecking
If each loop detector in the affected region is correctly
IV. C RITICAL FACTORS TO T OTAL D ELAY
working and reporting without error, the pattern of congestion
C AUSED BY RUBBERNECKING
resulting from an accident should be represented, as shown in
Fig. 3. However, in practice, it is often the case that some loop A. Definition of Candidate Variables
detectors may temporarily be not providing valid data, which
Candidate variables are classified into five groups based on
is usually due to a variety of reasons, including broken cables,
TASAS, traffic data, and estimated congestion regions: 1) ac-
interference from other electronic devices, communication fail-
cident characteristics, including accident type, accident causal
ure, and software error [24]. On the Orange County freeway
factor, truck accident, accident location, accident severity, num-
system, there are many such cases of missing data traced to
ber of vehicles involved, number of persons killed, number of
these reasons, leading to the delay of only 2394 of the 6182
persons injured, and accident time; 2) geometric characteristics
total accidents being successfully estimated.
referring to the opposite direction of the corresponding accident
However, certain results were censored by temporal con-
in terms of the number of lanes; 3) environmental condition
straints (or time boundary conditions). As suggested by Chung
(i.e., whether or not the road surface was wet); 4) traffic charac-
and Recker [12], an upper limit of 4 h after accident occurrence
teristics referring to the opposite direction of the corresponding
was applied in the determination of the spatiotemporal extent of
accident, such as annual average daily traffic (AADT), truck
the congestion region. However, in some cases, congestion was
AADT, and occupancy1 ; and 5) congestion characteristics re-
observed to remain after the maximum number of time period
ferring to the duration time, maximum congested time, and
M . Similarly, calculations for some of the rubbernecking delays
maximum congested length based on the estimated congestion
were cut off in terms of a spatial boundary condition, which is
region in the accident direction. The value of occupancy em-
due either to county lines or to an end of roadway (e.g., freeway
ployed is referenced to the accident section and its opposite
interchange). Another spatial cutoff result is due to detector
section during the 5-min period prior to the accident occurrence
problems (or missing data). Most of such results are caused by
time; this variable represents the mean value for the 5-min
accidents related to fatalities, hazardous materials, secondary
interval.
accidents that occurred either before the first accident was
Some of the nominal variables that can affect the total delay
cleared or while rubbernecking, etc., and they are called cen-
caused by an accident are classified into binary variables.
sored observations. In such cases, since the congestion caused
Specifically, the accident time variable (in terms of time of
by rubbernecking is not cleared, the causal factor analysis for
day) is divided into four time intervals, i.e., 06:01–09:00,
total delay would lead to an erroneous conclusion if censored
09:01–15:30, 15:31–18:00, and 18:01–06:00. The accident time
delays are ignored.
variables, including time of day and week, reflect the general
Having completed the given steps, which determine the
traffic pattern that is present. Table III shows the candidate
region (in time and space) that is negatively affected in the
variables.
opposite direction by any particular accident, we can calculate
the total delay (T D) caused by rubbernecking as
B. Multivariate Analysis Using Cox’s PH Model
TD =
∀m,j∈dot−shaded cells
1) Estimation of Multivariate Cox Model: Since the result
that the majority (26.9%) of 2394 observations for rubber-
1 1
× max Lj · − · Vjm , 0 (3) necking have zero values for delay leads to the rubbernecking
ŝj (tm ) s̄j (tm )
delay observations not nicely fitting such formal distributions
where as exponential, Weibull, gamma, lognormal, log-logistic, and
Lj Length of freeway segment j. Gompertz, multivariate effects on rubbernecking delay are an-
Vjm Volume (count) of vehicles in segment j during alyzed by using the semiparametric model (Cox’s PH model)
time m. rather than fully parametric survival models. The Cox model,
ŝj (tm ) Speed affected by rubbernecking in segment j at which assumes that the covariates multiplicatively shift the
time m. baseline hazard function, is by far the most popular choice, due
s̄j (tm ) Annual average speed in segment j at time m. to its elegance and computational feasibility [26]. It has a con-
There are many cases of missing data on the Orange County siderable advantage compared with the parametric approaches
freeway system. Thus, the total delay caused by rubbernecking in that it does not need an assumption about the baseline hazard
was successfully estimated for only 2394 (38.73%) of the 6182 function.
total accidents. Moreover, 432 (18.05%) of 2394 accidents
1 Initially, traffic volume was considered as a candidate variable. However,
resulted in censoring due to the space and time boundary
due to its property of having the same value under two different traffic situations
conditions and/or temporarily not providing valid data issues, (i.e., uncongested and congested conditions), using this variable may result in
as previously described. From the estimated results, the median a biased model. Thus, this variable was ignored.
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vol. 1856, pp. 118–124, 2003. in 2007.
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[20] C. Chou, E. Miller-Hooks, and I. Promisel, “Benefit-cost analysis of free- Ph.D. degrees in civil engineering from Carnegie
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2009. was the Director of the Institute of Transportation
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model that captures traffic oscillations,” Transp. Res. B: Methodol., ests include activity-based travel demand modeling
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