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Tutorial 5

1. The probability that a randomly selected student over 6 feet tall is a woman is 5/11. 2. The probabilities that a randomly selected defective bolt came from Machine A, B, or C are 5%, 4%, and 2% respectively. 3. If the engineering company receives one reply, the probabilities that the applicant saw the ad in papers A, B, or C are 0.002, 0, and 0.005 respectively. 4. Events A and B have the following probabilities: P(AB)=0.08, P(A U B)=0.7, P(A|B)=0.5. 5. The probability of obtaining both factory and computer

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120 views

Tutorial 5

1. The probability that a randomly selected student over 6 feet tall is a woman is 5/11. 2. The probabilities that a randomly selected defective bolt came from Machine A, B, or C are 5%, 4%, and 2% respectively. 3. If the engineering company receives one reply, the probabilities that the applicant saw the ad in papers A, B, or C are 0.002, 0, and 0.005 respectively. 4. Events A and B have the following probabilities: P(AB)=0.08, P(A U B)=0.7, P(A|B)=0.5. 5. The probability of obtaining both factory and computer

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© © All Rights Reserved
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TUTORIAL 5

1. At a certain university, 4 % of men are over 6 feet tall and 1 % of women are over 6 feet
tall. The total student population is divided in the ratio 3:2 in favour of women. If a
student is selected at random from among all those over six feet tall, what is the
probability that the student is a woman?

2. A factory production line is manufacturing bolts using three machines, A, B and C. Of the
total output, machine A is responsible for 25%, machine B for 35% and machine C for the
rest. It is known from previous experience with the machines that 5% of the output from
machine A is defective, 4% from machine B and 2% from machine C. A bolt is chosen at
random from the production line and found to be defective. What is the probability that it
came from

a. Machine A
b. Machine B
c. Machine C?

3. An engineering company advertises a job in three newspapers, A,B and C. It is known


that these papers attract undergraduate engineering readerships in the proportions 2:3:1.
The probabilities that an engineering undergraduate sees and replies to the job
advertisement in these papers are 0.002, 0.001 and 0.005 respectively.
Assume that the undergraduate sees only one job advertisement.

a. If the engineering company receives only one reply to it advertisements, calculate


the probability that the applicant has seen the job advertised in place A.
I. A
II. B
III. C

b. If the company receives two replies, what is the probability that both applicants
saw the job advertised in paper A?

4. Two independent events A and B are such that P(A)=0.2) and P(B)=0.4. Find the values
of
a. P(AB)
b. P(A U B)
c. The probability of A occurring given that B has already occurred

5. A businessman estimates that the probability of gaining an important contract to build a


factory is 0.65. If this contract is obtained he will certainly have a probability of gaining a
further contract of building an associated computer block – he estimates that this
probability is 0.8. If he fails to obtain the contract to build the factory, he will not be
asked to deal with the computer block construction. As an alternative to the factory/block
contract, there is a probability of 0.35 that the businessman could obtain the contract to
build an office block – he could only deal with this if the first set of contracts was not
obtained.
TUTORIAL 5

a. What is the probability that both factory and computer block contracts will be
gained?
b. Also, show that the probability that the businessman will obtain either the
computer block contract or the office block contract is 0.6425?

6. It is a fact that if A and B are independent events then it is also true that A’ and B’ are
independent events. If A and B are independent events such that the probability that they
both occur simultaneously is 1/8 and the probability that neither of them will occur is
3/8, find:
a. the probability that event A will occur
b. the probability that event B will occur

7. If A and B are two events associated with an experiment and P(A) = 0.4, P(A U B) =
0.7 and P(B) = p, find:
a. the choice of p for which A and B are mutually exclusive
b. the choice of p for which A and B are independent.

8. From a batch of 100 items of which 20 are defective, exactly two items are chosen, one at
a time, without replacement. Calculate the probabilities that:
a. The first item chosen is defective
b. Both items chosen are defective
c. The second item chosen is defective

9. A garage mechanic keeps a box of good springs to use as replacements on customers cars.
The box contains 5 springs. A colleague, thinking that the springs are for scrap, tosses
three faulty springs into the box. The mechanic picks two springs out of the box while
servicing a car. Find the probability that:
a. The first spring drawn is faulty
b. The second spring drawn is faulty.

10. A and B produce 10% and 90% respectively of the production of a component intended
for the motor industry. From experience, it is known that the probability that machine A
produces a defective component is 0.01 while the probability that machine B produces a
defective component is 0.05. If a component is selected at random from a day’s
production and is found to be defective, find the probability that it was made by
a. Machine A
b. Machine B

11. A manager in an event-driven hedge fund is testing a strategy that involves identifying
potential acquisition targets and examines the effectiveness of various company screens,
in particular the ration of stock price to free cash flow per share (PFCF). Let us consider
the two following events:
D= Company X’s PFCF has been more than three times lower than the sector average
for the past three years.
TUTORIAL 5

E= Company X becomes the acquisition target in the course of a given year.


Independently of the screen, the manager assesses the probability of company X being
targeted at 40%.
In addition the manager analysis suggests that the probability a target company’s PFCF
has been more than three times lower than the sector average for the past three years is
75% while the probability that a non-target company has been having that low of a PFCF
for the past three years is 35%.
If a bidder does appear on the scene, what is the chance that the targeted company had
been detected by the manager’s screen?

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