Prob 1234
Prob 1234
Prob 1234
Probability
Instructor
Osama Bin Ajaz
Content
• Sample Space and Event
• Tree diagram
• Additive and multiplicative rules for probability ( 4 rules)
• Conditional probability (using table)
• Bayes’ Theorem (using table)
Sample Space
• What is an experiment?
• Any process or activity that generates a set of data is called
experiment. For example:
i. Tossing a coin
ii. Rolling dice
iii. Playing cards
iv. Opinion of voters
v. Launching of missiles
Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called
the sample space (S). For example:
Tree Diagram
• Tossing coin: 2 times, 3 times, 4 times
• Tossing die & coin together:
• Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective, D, or non-defective, N. List the elements of the sample
space.
Multiplication Or Fundamental
Rule of counting
i. How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of
dice is thrown once?
ii. How many there digit numbers can be formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, and
8 if: (i) repetitions are not allowed (ii) repetitions allowed
Set of Example (iii - viii)
Subjective: Objective:
• Personal experiences • Classical approach
• Relative frequency approach
• Axiomatic approach
Examples (1 – 3)
1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head
occurs?
2. A die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting:
(a) an even number (b) a number less than 3 (c) a 4 or higher
number (d) a 7 (e) A number from 1 to 6
P(B1) = 0.3
P(A|B2) = 0.03
P(B2) = 0.45
P(B3) = 0.25
P(A|B3) = 0.02
Baye’s Rule
Example # 27
• In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make
30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from
past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each
machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective? if a product was chosen randomly and found to
be defective, what is the probability that it was made by machine B3?
• Solution:
Example # 28
• Suppose a Software House based in Karachi required the post of
Programmer. After interviewing many applicants, the firm has
identified 20 applicants categorized as in the following contingency
table: Certificate Diploma Total
Male 10 2 12
Femal 5 3 8
e
Total 15 5 20
• If a diploma holder is selected, what is the probability that the person
is a Male.
Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)