Introduction to

Probability
Instructor
Osama Bin Ajaz
 Content
• Sample Space and Event
• Tree diagram
• Set theory
• Venn diagram
• Counting techniques
• Additive and multiplicative rules for probability
• Conditional probability
• Bayes’ Theorem
 Sample Space
• What is an experiment?
• Any process or activity that generates a set of data is called
experiment. For example:
i. Tossing a coin
ii. Rolling dice
iii. Playing cards
iv. Opinion of voters
v. Launching of missiles
 Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called
the sample space (S). For example:
 Tree Diagram
• Tossing coin: 2 times, 3 times, 4 times
• Tossing die & coin together:
• Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective, D, or non-defective, N. List the elements of the sample
space.
 Events
• An event is a subset of a sample space. For example:

• The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all

elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by
the symbol A’.
 Intersection of Events
• The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B,
is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
• Let E be the event that a person selected at random in a classroom is
majoring in engineering, and let F be the event that the person is female.
Then E ∩ F is the event of all female engineering students in the classroom.

• Let V = {a, e, i, o, u} and C = {l, r, s, t}; then it follows that V ∩ C = φ. That is,
V and C have no elements in common and, therefore, cannot both
simultaneously occur.
 Mutually Exclusive events
• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ,
that is, if A and B have no elements in common.
 Union of events
• The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪ B, is
the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.

• Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e}; then A ∪ B = ?

• Let P be the event that an employee selected at random from an oil

drilling company smokes cigarettes. Let Q be the event that the
employee selected drinks alcoholic beverages. Then the event P ∪ Q =?
Venn Diagram

• A ∩ B = 1, 2
B ∩ C = 1, 3
A ∪ C = 1,2,3,4,5,7
B’ ∩ A = 4, 7
A∩B∩C= 1
(A ∪ B) ∩ C’ = 7,2,6,
 Venn Diagram
• Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions, which may
easily be verified by means of Venn diagrams, are as follows:
 Multiplication Or Fundamental
Rule of counting

i. How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of
dice is thrown once?
ii. How many there digit numbers can be formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, and
8 if: (i) repetitions are not allowed (ii) repetitions allowed
 Set of Example (iii - viii)

(iii) A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of

Tudor, rustic, colonial, and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story, and
split-level floor plans. In how many different ways can a buyer order one of these
homes?
(iv) If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many
different ways can these two to be elected?
(v) Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips
from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory
bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?
(vi) How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5,
6, and 9 if each digit can be used only once?
(vii) How many new arrangements can be made from the letters of the word
FAVOUR so that vowel occupy even place.
 Permutation
• A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
• The number of permutations of n objects is n!.
• Suppose you have to arrange 3 books: Statistics, Maths, Physics on a
shelf. How many arrangements are possible?
 Permutations of “n” objects
taken “r” at a time

• In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be

given to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If
each student can receive at most one award, how many possible
selections are there?
 Example # 10:
• A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting
of 50 people. How many different choices of officers are possible if

(a) there are no restrictions;

(b) A will serve only if he is president;

(c) B and C will serve together or not at all;

(d) D and E will not serve together?

 Circular Permutations

• The number of permutations of n objects arrange in a circle is (n –1 )!.

 Permutations of n objects when
they are not all different.

• Find the number of permutations of 9995

• In how many ways can the letters of the word STATISTICS be arranged?
• In how many ways can 2 red, 3 blue, and 4 green chips be arranged in a
row, if the chips of same color are not distinguishable from each other?
• In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs
to have 10 players standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there
are 1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors. How many
different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class level
will be distinguished?
 Combinations
• Selection of “r” objects from “n” different objects and when the order
is not important.

• In how many ways a committee of 3 students can be selected from 4

students.
• From a group of 10 boys and 6 girls a committee of 3 boys and 2 girls
are to be selected. In how many ways can this done?
Exercises
 Probability
• Probability is a measure of the chance that
an uncertain event will occur.

Subjective: Objective:
• Personal experiences • Classical approach
• Relative frequency approach
• Axiomatic approach
 Examples (1 – 3)
1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least 1 head
occurs?
2. A die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting:
(a) an even number (b) a number less than 3 (c) a 4 or higher
number (d) a 7 (e) A number from 1 to 6

3. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely

to occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number less than 4
occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
 Example 4
• Two balanced dice are rolled once. What is the probability of getting
(a) A sum of 11 (b) same number on both dice (c) a sum of 13
A deck of playing Cards
 Example 5 – 6
5. A card is drawn at random from the well shuffled pack of 52 playing
cards. Find the probability that the card:
(a) is a Jack (b) is not a Jack

6. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of

holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
 Example 7
• A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical,
10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly
selected by the instructor to answer a question, find the probability
that the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major and (b)
a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.
 Additive Rule:
Not - Mutually Exclusive Events
Additive Rule: Mutually Exclusive Events
 Example # 08 – 10
8. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a
university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two
companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from
company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If
he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both companies is
0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two
companies?
9. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair
dice is tossed?
10. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white,
red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new
automobile that comes in one of those colors?
 Examples (11 – 12)
11. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or
more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next
day at work?
12. Suppose the manufacturer’s specifications for the length of a certain type of
computer cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this industry, it is known that small
cable is just as likely to be defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable.
That is, the probability of randomly producing a cable with length exceeding
2010 millimeters is equal to the probability of producing a cable with length
smaller than 1990 millimeters. The probability that the production procedure
meets specifications is known to be 0.99.
(a) What is the probability that a cable selected randomly is too large?
(b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is larger than 1990
millimeters?
Exercises
 The Product Rule:
Independent Events
 Some important results for Independent events

• (i) A’ and B are independent = P (A’∩ B ) = P(A’).P(B)

• (ii) A and B’ are independent = P (A ∩ B’) = P(A).P(B’)
• (iii) A’ and B’ are independent = P(A’ ∩ B’) = P(A’).P(B’)
• If A and B are independent then they are not mutually exclusive.
• If A, B, and C are independent, then P(A ∩B ∩ C)’ = 1 - P(A).P(B).P(C)
• If A, B, and C are independent, then P (A U B U C) = 1 – P(A’ ∩ B’ ∩ C’)
Relationship among events
 Examples # 13 – 14
• A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for
emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available when
needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available
when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire
engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.
• A bag contains 5 red and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from
the bag, the color is noted and the ball is replaced. A second balls is
then drawn. Find the probability that the first balls is red and the
second is black.
 Examples 15 – 17
(15). A die is rolled two times. Find the probability of obtaining a 5 on the
first thrown and an even number on the second thrown.
(16). The probability that Ahsan will be alive in 30 years is 0.4 and the
probability that Bilawal will be alive in 30 years is 0.8. What is the
probability that: (a) both will be alive in 30 years
(b) both of them die (c) Ahsan will be alive and B dead.
(17). A town has two fire engines operating independently. The
probability that a specific engine is available when needed is
0.96.
(a) What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
(b) What is the probability that a fire engine is available when
needed?
The Product Rule: Dependent Events
 Example # 18
(18). Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both
fuses are defective?
(19). Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck of 52 playing cards
without replacement. What is the probability that both cards a are spades.
(20). A box contains 8 tickets bearing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10.
One ticket is drawn and kept aside. Then a second ticket is drawn. What is
the probability that both the tickets show even numbers.
 Example # 21
(21). In a certain college 25% of the students passed Mathematics, 15%
of the students passed statistics and 10% of the students passed
both mathematics and Statistics. A students is selected at random.
(a) if he passed statistics, what is the probability that he passed
mathematics.
(b) if he passed mathematics, what is the probability that he
passed statistics.
(22). Suppose a pair of dice is tossed once. If it is known that one die
shows a 3. what is the probability that other die shows a 6.
Example # 22
 Example # 23

(2.91) Find the probability of randomly selecting 4 good quarts of milk in

succession from a cooler containing 20 quarts of which 5 have spoiled, by using
(a) the first formula of Theorem 2.12 on page 68.
(b) the formulas of Theorem 2.6.
 Example # 23
• A card is drawn is random from a deck of ordinary playing cards. What
is the probability that it is a diamond, a face card or a king?
Solution:
Let A = the card drawn is diamond
B = the card drawn is face card, &
C = the card drawn is a king
P (A U B U C) =
 Example # 24
• A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the
sum of two dice will be 7, given that
(i) the sum is odd. (B)
(ii) the sum is greater than 6. (C)
(iii) the two dice had the same outcome. (D)
Solution:
 Example # 25

• Two coins are tossed. What is the conditional probability that two
heads results, given that there is at least one head?
 Example # 25
• Two events A & B are such that P(A) = 1/4, P(A|B)=1/2, P(B|A) = 2/3
(i) Are A and B independent events?
(ii) Are A and B mutually exclusive events?
(iii) Find P(A∩B)
Solution:
 Example # 26
• In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make
30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from
past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each
machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective?
• Solution:
A: the product is defective,
B1: the product is made by machine B1,
B2: the product is made by machine B2,
B3: the product is made by machine B3,
 Tree Diagram for Example # 26
P(A|B1) = 0.02

P(B1) = 0.3
P(A|B2) = 0.03
P(B2) = 0.45

P(B3) = 0.25

P(A|B3) = 0.02
Baye’s Rule
 Example # 27
• In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make
30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from
past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each
machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective? if a product was chosen randomly and found to
be defective, what is the probability that it was made by machine B3?
• Solution:
 Example # 28
• Suppose a Software House based in Karachi required the post of
Programmer. After interviewing many applicants, the firm has
identified 20 applicants categorized as in the following contingency
table: Certificate Diploma Total
Male 10 2 12
Femal 5 3 8
e
Total 15 5 20
• If a diploma holder is selected, what is the probability that the person
is a Male.
 Example # 29
• Suppose 25 colored balls are distributed in three bags, which are identical in
appearance as follows: BAG
1 2 3 Total
Green 1 3 4 8
Yellow 2 2 3 7
Red 4 5 1 10
Totalwhich7a ball is drawn
• A bag is selected as random from 10 8
at random. 25
(a) Find the probability that the ball is yellow.
(b) Given that ball is yellow, what is the probability that bag 2 was selected.
 Miscellaneous Problems
Q1) In a survey on 136 boys, 67 played golf, 56 played cricket and 40 played
football 11 played both golf and cricket, 12 played both cricket and football and 9
played both golf and football. Each boy played at least one of these games. How
many played all the three games. (use Venn diagram)
• n(S) = 136
• n(G) = 67
• n(C) = 56
• n(F) = 40
• n(G & C) = 11 47+x 11-x 33+x
• n(C & F) = 12 x
9-x 12-x
• n(G & F) = 9
• n(G & F & C) = x = ? 19+x
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)
Q2) A newsagent sells three papers, the Jang, the Dawn, and the BR, 70
customers buy the Jang, 60 the Dawn, and 50 the BR, 17 buy both the
Jang & Dawn, 15 the Dawn & the BR, and 16 the BR & the Jang, while 3
customers buy all three papers. How many customers has he?
Q3) A total of 365 Capsules, each marked by the difference dates of the
year, are mixed and one capsule is picked at random. What is the
probability that the capsule picked will be of:
(i) A day of January
(ii) March 2
(iii) Either of March or April
(iv) Not of December
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)

Q8) The probabilities that three men hit a target are respectively 1/6,
1/4 and 1/3. Each shoots once at the target. If only one hit the
target, what is the probability that it was the first man.
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)
Q9) A box contains 24 transistors, four of which are defective. If four
are sold at random, find the following probabilities.
(a) Exactly two are defective
(b) all are defective
(c) none is defective
(d) at least one is defective
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)

Q10) There are eight married couples in a tennis club. If one man and
one woman are selected at random to plan the summer
tournament, find the probability that they are married to each other.
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)
Q11)
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)
Q12) The probabilities that a service station will pump gas into 0, 1, 2,
3, 4, or 5 or more cars during a certain 30-minute period are 0.03,
0.18, 0.24, 0.28, 0.10, and 0.17, respectively. Find the probability that
in this 30-minute period.
(a) more than 2 cars receive gas;
(b) at most 4 cars receive gas;
(c) 4 or more cars receive gas.
 Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)

Q13) Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four
different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of
the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 will be operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and
30% of the time. If a person who is speeding on her way to work has
probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through
these locations, what is the probability that she will receive a speeding
ticket?
Miscellaneous Problems (Contd.)