ASSIGNMENT 1

SPRING SEMESTER 2018

ES 202 - ENGINEERING STATISTICS

1. Prove that

A ∪ (B ∩ C) = (A ∪ B) ∩ (A ∪ C) and A ∩ (B ∪ C) = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C)

2. Prove that for any sets A, B, and C:

(a) A r (B ∩ C) = (A r B) ∩ (A r C)
(b) (A ∪ B) r (A ∩ B) = (A r B) ∪ (B r A)
(c) A = (A r B) ∪ (A ∩ B) and A r B = A ∩ B c
and hence A = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B c ) .

3. Prove the following DeMorgan laws:

c
(a) (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ · · · ∪ An )c = Ac1 ∩ Ac2 ∩ Ac3 · · · ∩ Acn or ( ni=1 Ai ) = ni=1 Aci
S T
c
(b) (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ · · · ∩ An )c = Ac1 ∪ Ac2 ∪ Ac3 · · · ∪ Acn or ( ni=1 Ai ) = ni=1 Aci
T S

4. If A1 , A2 , A3 . . . , An are proper subsets of set A such that

A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ · · · ∪ An = A and Ai ∩ Aj = φ for all i 6= j

then the collection of subsets A1 , A2 , A3 . . . , An is called a partition of set A. For

such a partition of set A, prove that

A = (A ∩ A1 ) ∪ (A ∩ A2 ) · · · ∪ (A ∩ An )

5. Use a combinatorial argument to show that

     
n n−1 n−1
= +
r r−1 r
.

6. A box contains three marbles – one red, one green, and one blue. Consider an exper-
iment that consists of taking one marble from the box, then replacing it in the box
and drawing a second marble from the box. Describe the sample space. Repeat for
the case in which the second marble is drawn without first replacing the first marble.

Answer: S = {RR, RB, RG, BR, BB, BG, GR, GB, GG} when done with re-
placement and S = {RB, RG, BR, BG, GR, GB} when done without replacement,
where RB means, for instance, that the first marble is red and the second green.

7. Two dice are thrown. Let E be the event that the sum of the dice is odd, let F be
the event that the first die lands on 1, and let G be the event that the sum is 5.
Describe the events E ∩ F, E ∪ F, F ∩ G, E ∩ F c , E ∩ F ∩ G.

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 Answer: E ∩ F = (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6);
E ∪ F = (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), or any of the 15 possibilities where
the first die is not 1 and the second die is odd when the first is even, and second
die is even when the first is odd;
F ∩ G = (1, 4);
E ∩ F c = any of the 15 possible outcomes where the first die is not 1 and the two
dice are not either both even or both odd;
E ∩ F ∩ G = F ∩ G.

8. A system is composed of four components, each of which is either working or failed.

Consider an experiment that consists of observing the status of each component,
and let the outcome of the experiment be given by the vector (x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 ) where
xi is equal to 1 if component i is working and is equal to 0 if component i is failed.

(a) How many outcomes are in the sample space of this experiment?
(b) Suppose that the system will work if components 1 and 2 are both working,
or if components 3 and 4 are both working. Specify all the outcomes in the
event that the system works.
(c) Let E be the event that components 1 and 3 are both failed. How many
outcomes are contained in event E?

Answer: (a) 24 = 16
(b) (1, 1, 0, 0), (1, 1, 0, 1), (1, 1, 1, 0), (1, 1, 1, 1), (0, 0, 1, 1), (0, 1, 1, 1), (1, 0, 1, 1)
(c) 22 = 4

9. Prove that

(a) P r(Ac ) = 1 − P r(A)

(b) If A ⊂ B, then P r(A) ≤ P r(B)
(c) If E ⊂ F then F c ⊂ E c

10. Prove that

(a) P r(E ∩ F c ) = P r(E) − P r(E ∩ F )

(b) P r(E c ∩ F c ) = 1 − P r(E) − P r(F ) + P r(E ∩ F )

11. Show that the probability that exactly one of the events E or F occurs is equal to
P (E) + P (F ) − 2P (E ∩ F ).

12. Let E, F, G be three events. Find expressions for the events that out of E, F, G

(a) only E occurs;

(b) both E and G but not F occur;
(c) at least one of the events occurs;
(d) at least two of the events occur;
(e) all three occur;
(f) none of the events occurs;
(g) at most one of them occurs;

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 (h) at most two of them occur;
(i) exactly two of them occur;
(j) at most three of them occur.

Answer: (a) E ∩ F c ∩ Gc (b) E ∩ F c ∩ G (c) E ∪ F ∪ G

(d) (E ∩ F ) ∪ (E ∩ G) ∪ (F ∩ G) (e) E ∩ F ∩ G (f) E c ∩ F c ∩ Gc
c c c c c c
(g) (E ∩ F ) ∪ (E ∩ G ) ∪ (F ∩ G ) (h) (E ∩ F ∩ G)c
(i) (E ∩ F ∩ Gc ) ∪ (E ∩ F c ∩ G) ∪ (E c ∩ F ∩ G) (j) S

13. If P r(A) = a, and P r(B) = b, show that

a+b−1
P r(A|B) ≥
b

14. Let A and B be two independent events with P r (A) > 0 and P r (B) > 0. Prove
that A & B c , Ac & B, and Ac & B c are also independent.

Hint: Use partition law also known as law of total probability.

15. Prove that for any two sets A and B with positive probabilities:


(a) If P r (A|B) = P r A|B̄ , then A and B are independent.



(b) If P r (A|C) > P r (B|C), and P r A|C̄ > P r B|C̄ , then A and B are
independent.
(c) If P r(A|B) < P r(A), show that P r(B|A) < P r(B).

Hint: Use the law of total probability.

16. A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An exam is given
and the students are ranked according to their performance. Assuming that no two
students obtain the same score,

(a) How many different rankings are possible?

(b) If all rankings are considered equally likely, what is the probability that women
receive the top 4 scores?
1
Answer: (a) 10! = 3, 628, 800 (b)
210
17. From a set of n items a random sample of size k is to be selected. What is the
probability a given item will be among the k selected?
k
Answer:
n
18. A bin contains 5 defective (that immediately fail when put in use), 10 partially
defective (that fail after a couple of hours of use), and 25 acceptable transistors.
A transistor is chosen at random from the bin and put into use. If it does not
immediately fail, what is the probability it is acceptable?
5
Answer:
7
3
19. Mr. Perez figures that there is a 30 percent chance that his company will set up
a branch office in Phoenix. If it does, he is 60 percent certain that he will be
made manager of this new operation. What is the probability that Perez will be a
Phoenix branch office manager?

Answer: 0.18

20. There is a 60 percent chance that the event A will occur. If A does not occur, then
there is a 10 percent chance that event B will occur. What is the probability that
at least one of the events A or B occurs?

Answer: 0.64

21. Two balls, each equally likely to be colored either red or blue, are put in an urn.
At each stage one of the balls is randomly chosen, its color is noted, and it is
then returned to the urn. If the first two balls chosen are colored red, what is the
probability that

(a) both balls in the urn are colored red;

(b) the next ball chosen will be red?
2 5
Answer: (a) (b)
3 6
22. An engineering system consisting of n components is said to be a k -out-of-n system
(k ≤ n) if the system functions if and only if at least k of the n components function.
Suppose that all components function independently of each other.

(a) If the i th component functions with probability Pi , i = 1, 2, 3, 4, compute the

probability that a 2-out-of-4 system functions.
(b) Repeat (a) for a 3-out-of-5 system.

Answer: 1 − P r(at most 1 works) = 1 − (Q1 ∩ Q2 ∩ Q3 ∩ Q4 ) − (P1 ∩ Q2 ∩ Q3 ∩

Q4 )−(Q1 ∩P2 ∩Q3 ∩Q4 )−(Q1 ∩Q2 ∩P3 ∩Q4 )−(Q1 ∩Q2 ∩Q3 ∩P4 ); where Qi = 1−Pi .

23. Five independent flips of a fair coin are made. Find the probability that

(a) the first three flips are the same;

(b) either the first three flips are the same, or the last three flips are the same;
(c) there are at least two heads among the first three flips, and at least two tails
among the last three flips.
1 1 1
Answer: (a) + =
8 8 4
1 1 2 7
(b) P r(F ∪ L) = P r(F ) + P r(L) − P (F ∩ L) = + − =
4 4 32 16
6
(c) , since there are 6 outcomes that give the desired result.
32
24. Suppose that n independent trials, each of which results in any of the outcomes
0, 1, or 2, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, are performed. Find the
probability that both outcome 1 and outcome 2 occur at least once.

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 Hint: Consider the complementary probability.

Answer: 1 − 0.5n + 0.8n − 0.3n

25. A parallel system functions whenever at least one of its components works. Consider
a parallel system of n components, and suppose that each component independently
works with probability 21 . Find the conditional probability that component 1 works,
given that the system is functioning.
1
2
Answer:
1 − ( 12 )n
26. A system composed of n separate components is said to be a parallel system
if it functions when at least one of the components functions. For such a sys-
tem, if component i, independent of other components, functions with probability
pi , i = 1, . . . , n, what is the probability the system functions?

Answer: 1 − [(1 − p1 ) × (1 − p2 ) × · · · × (1 − pn )]

27. Let A, B, C be events such that P r(A) = 0.2, P r(B) = 0.3, P r(C) = 0.4. Find
the probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs if

(a) A and B are mutually exclusive;

(b) A and B are independent.

Find the probability that all of the events A, B, C occur if

(c) A, B, C are independent;
(d) A, B, C are mutually exclusive.

Answer: (a) 0.5 (b) 0.44 (c) 0.024 (d) zero

28. There are two local factories that produce microwaves. Each microwave produced
at factory A is defective with probability 0.05, whereas each one produced at fac-
tory B is defective with probability 0.01. Suppose you purchase two microwaves
that were produced at the same factory, which is equally likely to have been either
factory A or factory B. If the first microwave that you check is defective, what is
the conditional probability that the other one is also defective?
13
Answer:
300
29. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes? those
that are accident prone and those that are not. Their statistics show that an
accident-prone person will have an accident at some time within a fixed 1-year
period with probability 0.4, whereas this probability decreases to 0.2 for a non-
accident-prone person. Assume that 30 percent of the population is accident prone.

(a) What is the probability that a new policy holder will have an accident within
a year of purchasing a policy?

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 (b) Suppose that a new policy holder has an accident within a year of purchasing
his policy. What is the probability that he is accident prone?
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Answer: (a) 0.26 (b) = 0.4615
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30. In answering a question on a multiple-choice test, a student either knows the answer
or she guesses. Let p be the probability that she knows the answer and 1?p the
probability that she guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will
be correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple-choice alter-
natives. What is the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to a
question given that she answered it correctly?
mp
Answer:
1 + (m − 1)p