FuturesAndOptionsL10 PDF
FuturesAndOptionsL10 PDF
FuturesAndOptionsL10 PDF
Pricing Formula
Dilip Madan
Department of Finance
Robert H. Smith School of Business
Black Merton Scholes
Model
Consider an economy with two assets, a money mar-
ket account earning a continuously compounded in-
terest rate of r with account value at time t of
A(t) = ert;
and
dS
= rdt + dW:
S
Risk Neutral Option
Pricing
We know from our risk neutral valuation principle
that
h i
Q +
c(S (t); t; K; T ) = Et e r(T t) (S (T ) K)
Hence we evaluate
h i
+
c(S (0); 0; K; T ) = Q
E e rT (S (T ) K) :
The Black Merton Scholes
Option Pricing Formula
The formula asserts that
We wish to evaluate
h i
+
E e rT (S (T ) K)
2 0 1+3
2 p
6 S (0) exp r T+ TZ A 7
= E 4e rT @ 2 5
K
0 p 1+
Z 1 2
= e rT @ S (0) exp r 2 T+ Tz A
1 K
n(z )dz
where n(z ) is the standard normal density
!
1 z2
n(z ) = p exp :
2 2
Eliminating the positive
part
The …rst step is to eliminate the positive part by not-
ing that the we only need to integrate in the region
S (T ) > K
or equivalently that
!
ln(S (0)=K ) r p
z > p + T
T 2
= d
with
ln(S (0)=K ) r p
d= p + T:
T 2
Rewrite the call price
We may now write the call price as
0 0 1 1
Z 1 2
r T A
c = e rT @S (0) exp @
p 2 KA
d + Tz
n(z )dz
= I1 I2
where
Z 1 !
p 2T
I1 = S (0) exp Tz n(z )dz
d 2
Z 1
I2 = Ke rT n(z )dz:
d
Evaluating the Second
Integral
The second integral is just the area under the bell
curve to the right of d and by symmetry of the
bell curve this is the area to the left of d which is
N (d):
I2 = Ke rT N (d):
Evaluating the First
Integral
The …rst integral is
Z 1 !
p 2T
I1 = S (0) exp Tz n(z )dz
d 2
Z 1 !
1 z2 p 2T
= S (0) p exp + Tz dz
d 2 2 2
Z 1 p !
1 z2 2 Tz + T 2
= S (0) p exp dz
d 2 2
0 p 21
Z 1 z T C
1
= S (0) p exp B
@ A dz
d 2 2
and
p
d = d2 = d1 T
Hence
p(S (0); 0; K; T )
= c(S (0); 0; K; T ) + Ke rT S (0)
= S (0)N (d1) Ke rT N (d2) + Ke rT S (0)
= Ke rT (1 N (d2)) S (0) (1 N (d1))
= Ke rT N ( d2) S (0)N ( d1):
Pricing an Option with the
Black Merton Scholes
formula
Consider a 3 month put option for S (0) = 100 with
strike 90 and a continuously compounded interest
rate of 6% for a volatility of 20%:
We have that
ln (100=90) :06 :2 p
d1 = p + + :25
:2 :25 :2 2
= 1:253605156
also
p
d2 = 1:2536 :2 :25
= 1:153605156
140 0
135 0
130 0
SPX level
125 0
120 0
115 0
110 0
105 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
day s fro m 20110 419
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
100
80
60
40
20
0
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
Implied Volatility
The BMS option price is a function of the form
w = bmsp(p; k; r; q; ; t; u)
where u = iscall:
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
Historical Volatility
Mispricing
We may observe quite an extensive mispricing at his-
torical volatility.
strike maturity iscall BMSP Price IV
1390 .16 1 142.17 32.30 .17
1075 .25 0 0.83 4.85 .32
1500 .70 1 90.07 28.5 .16
1025 .94 0 13.12 30.05 .30
We certainly cannot price options using the Black
Merton Scholes formula using historical volatility or
any constant volatility for that matter.
N (d1)
N ( d2):
110 one y ear c all delta
1
0.8
0.6
delta
0.4
0.2
0
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
s toc k pric e
-0.2
-0.4
delta
-0.6
-0.8
-1
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
s toc k pric e
-2
th eta
-4
-6
-8
70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0
s toc k pric e
1
th eta
-1
-2
70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0
s toc k pric e
25
11 0 C all
20
90 put
Optio n Pr ice
15
10
0
70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0
s toc k pr ic e
0.02
0.015
Gamma
0.01
0.005
0
70 80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0
Stoc k Pric e
dA = rAdt
A = rA t
and
S = S t+ S W !
p W
= S t+ S t p
t
We recognize now that by construction
W
p =Z
t
a standard normal variate.
Consider
p
( S )2 = S t+ S tZ
= 2S 2 tZ 2 + o( t)
( S )2 2S 2 t
given that E [Z 2] = 1:
Approximating a change in
call values
Suppose we have a call price function say c(S; t) and
we wish to approximate the change in call value over
a small interval of length t:
V = c + mS:
V = c + m S:
The Change in Value
We may the write
@c @c 1 @ 2c 2
V = t S ( S )
@t @S 2 @S 2
+m S
V = rV t
@c
= r c+ S t:
@S
Equating the two expressions for V we have
!
@c @c 1 @ 2c 2S 2
r c+ S =
@S @t 2 @S 2
or that
@c @c 2S 2 @ 2c
+ rS + = rc
@t @S 2 @S 2
c(S; T ) = (S K )+ :
or that
@c
c(S + x) c(S ) = x + ax2
@S
or that
1 @ 2c
a= :
2 @S 2
12
H edg e Gap U p
10
8 H edg e Gap D o w n
6
Value
-2
-4
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Stoc k Pric e
Theta as compensation
The negative theta is earned on an option sale as
compensation for the interest cost of the hedge and
the expected level of mishedging given by half gamma
times variance.