Why Deregulate?: Chapter 1-1
Why Deregulate?: Chapter 1-1
Why Deregulate?: Chapter 1-1
Why Deregulate?
The propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another
.. .is common to all men.
Adam Smith
The Wealth of Nations
1776
3. See Joskow (2000b, 16) for a similar view of the unimportance of "the demise of natural monopoly
characteristics at the generation level" and the importance of the expansion of the grid, and Ruff (1999)
for an alternative view of the role of the grid and transmission pricing.
PART 1 Power Market Fundamentals
ments for and against deregulation may help explain why such mixed results might
be expected.
Chapter Summary 1-1: Improvements in transmission, rather than changes
in generation technology, have removed the natural monopoly character of the
wholesale power market in most locations. This makes possible the replacement
of regulated generation monopolies with deregulated wholesale power markets.
In principle these can be more efficient than the old-style regulation. In practice,
California has proven bad deregulation to be worse than mediocre regulation, and
England has demonstrated that mediocre deregulation can bring cost-saving
efficiencies to a badly regulated generation monopoly.
In the short run, power-market problems tend to be more dramatic than the
benefits. The problems are primarily the result of two demand-side flaws: the almost
complete failure of customers to respond to relevant price fluctuations, and the
customer's ability to take powerfromthe grid without a contract. As fundamental
as these are, it is possible to design a workable market around them, but it does
require design as well as extensive and clever regulation. Recent U.S. history has
shown that there are three impediments to such progress: politics, special interests,
and overconfidence. The last is largely due to a dramatic underestimation of the
problem.
Section 1: Conditions for Deregulation. Deregulation requires the market
not be a strong natural monopoly. One view holds that small efficient gas turbines
have overturned the natural monopoly of large coal plants. Yet today's competitive
suppliers are far larger than any coal plant, so if the size of a large coal plant were
problematic for competition, today's markets would be uncompetitive.
Section 2: Problems with Regulation. Regulation can provide strong cost-
minimizing incentives and can hold prices down, but it must trade off one against
the other. Competition can do both at once. In practice, regulators hold prices down
near long-run average costs but leave cost-minimizing incentives too weak. The
result is high costs and high prices.
Section 3: The Benefits of Wholesale Competition. Competition provides
full strength cost-minimizing incentives and, at the same time, forces average prices
down toward their minimum. It may also encourage efficient retail prices.
Section 4: The Benefits of Real-time Pricing. Competition may induce real-
time pricing, which will reduce consumption during periods of peak demand. This
will reduce the need for installed capacity and, if extensively adopted, should
provide a net savings of about 2% of retail price. Although this could be achieved
CHAPTER 1-1 Why Deregulate ? 9
easily under regulation, competition will provide some additional incentives, but
their consequences are still unclear.
Section 5: Problems with Deregulating Electricity. Contemporary electricity
markets have inadequate metering. Consequently it does not make sense for load
to respond to price fluctuations, and bilateral contracts cannot be physically
enforced in real time. As a result demand can and sometimes does exceed supply,
and competitive pricing is impossible at crucial times. Theseflawsresult in high
prices that must be limited, and they provide ideal conditions for the exercise of
market power. Electricity markets are also extremely complex and prone to prob-
lems with local market power due to the inadequacies of the transmission system.
4. See Joskow and Schmalensee (1983, 54) for a discussion of firm-level economies of scale.
10 PART 1 Power Market Fundamentals
power plant was approaching 1000 MW, and new technologies have made 100-MW
plants almost as efficient.
If this argument were correct, then an 1000-MW supplier must in some sense
be a monopolist, and the market must need suppliers that have capacities smaller
than 1000 MW to be competitive. But in this case, deregulation must certainly have
failed in the United States because every market contains suppliers with capacities
exceeding 1000 MW. Yet no one who suggests small efficient plants are a necessary
condition for competition seems worried by the presence of huge suppliers in the
new markets.
The beliefs that the most efficient size power plant must be quite small, and
that competitive suppliers can own many such plants are contradictory. Most likely
the former is incorrect, at least in markets with peak loads of over 5000 MW.
Fortunately, vast transmission grids have made such large markets the norm. When
small efficient plants are necessary for competition, suppliers with total generating
capacity greater than the most efficient size plant should be prohibited. Greater
threats of natural monopoly conditions come from the economies of multiplant
companies and weaknesses in the power grid that effectively isolate "load pockets"
during peak load conditions.
5. Suppliers having better information than the regulators is at the root of the regulatory trade-off problem
which, though fundamental, is too complex to discuss here.
6. In reality, cost-of-service regulation does provide incentives in two ways: regulatory lag (see Joskow
2000b) which is discussed shortly, and the threat of disallowed costs.
7. For instance, yardstick regulation compares the performance of one regulated firm with other similar
firms, thus giving the regulator some of the benefit of the other firms' knowledge without requiring the
regulator to know details (see Tirole 1997).
12 PART 1 Power Market Fundamentals
Regulation in Practice
Competition can hold average prices down to long-run costs while putting full
strength pressure on cost minimization. At best, regulation does a decent job of
both but does neither quite as well as competition. But how does regulation work
in practice?
Regulation tends to err in the direction of driving prices down toward cost. In
fact, most regulators believe this is their entire job and would implement pure COS
regulation if they could. Fortunately, it's just too much bother to re-adjust rates
continuously, so the result is roughly a price cap that gets reset about every three
years. This inadvertent "regulatory lag" is a major factor in saving COS regulation
from providing no incentive at all. It provides some incentive for cost minimization,
but less than would be provided with an optimal trade-off. Even that is too little
by the standard of a competitive market. In practice, regulation has typically done
a passable job in the United States and could do much better if the effort spent
deregulating were spent improving regulation.
8. For a comparison of demand-charges and real-time rates and an explanation of why real-time rates are
crucial for reducing market power, see Borenstein (2001b).
14 PART 1 Power Market Fundamentals
Peak transmission use often occurs during shoulder hours, not peak hours, so
there is no easy proof of a transmission cost savings. But for simplicity assume
that this savings is % as great as the saving in generation. That brings total savings
to 3%.
9. Significant savings in transmission and distribution should not be expected because transmission lines
are typically used most heavily during off-peak hours, and both have very large fixed-cost components that
will be unaffected by deregulation.
10. More kinetic energy is stored in rotating generators, much more potential energy can be stored by
pumping water up hill and vastly more energy is stored in local fuel supplies, but all of these stores of
energy must be converted to electrical energy by the process of generation before they can be delivered.
CHAPTER 1-1 Why Deregulate ? 15
11. See Jaffe and Felder (1996), Kahn et al. (2001), and Green (1998).
16 PART 1 Power Market Fundamentals
that eventually price spikes will be low enough to need no caps. This change in
market structure should be encouraged from the start. A responsible deregulation
of electricity would first fix the demand-side flaws and then start the market—they
are cheaper to fix than the problems they have already caused.