Impact of FII and FDI On Indian Stock Market: A Project Report
Impact of FII and FDI On Indian Stock Market: A Project Report
Impact of FII and FDI On Indian Stock Market: A Project Report
On
Impact of FII and FDI on Indian stock market
Submitted to
GUJARAT TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
Submitted by:
Komal H. vasani (097030592001)
Ankita B. Khakhkhar (097030592106)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
ATMIYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE
RAJKOT
declare that Our project work, presented in this report is our original work & has been
RAJKOT.
particular field, Which Further sharpen the skill and add practicality in the specialization.
This work has not been previously submitted to any other university for any
other examination.
Place :-
KOMAL H. VASANI
ANKITA B. KHAKHKHAR
I
AKNOWLEDGEMENT
the Persons who have contributed in your success in one or other way.
“We cannot determine milk of how many cows feed our body.” – Anon
We believe an ocean is filled by drops and each and every drop should count,
Similarly we should count favor of all my helpers here but this not possible. So
We would like to thank Gujarat Technological University for introducing this subject
Especially, we would like to Thank Nishant Dhruv, our mentor who guided us in our
work.
Thanking you,
Yours Faithfully,
II
PREFACE
“Knowledge is the ocean that cannot be fathomed the deeper you go, the
tomorrow will not like be today‟s market is how to succeed in the dynamic environment
that surrounds the corporate world. MBA one of those professional courses which help
students to keep pace the changing trends in business and its surrounding environment.
The subject „Practical Studies‟ particularly helps students to know the actual
corporate world, the anxieties and stress associated with the job which cannot be
conditions, for this purpose, we have chosen “ Impact of FII and FDI on Indian Stock
DATE :
ANKITA B. KHAKHKHAR
III
TABLE OF CONTENT
DECLARATION I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT II
PREFACE III
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1
4.8 HYPOTHESIS 26
6.1 FINDINGS 59
6.2 SUGGESTIONS 61
REFERENCES: 63
ANNEXTURE: 64
LIST OF TABLE:
LIST OF CHARTS
ABRIVIATION
Over the past ten years, foreign investment has grown at a significantly more rapid
pace than either international trade or world economic production generally. From
1980 to 1998, international capital flows, a key indication of investment across
borders, grew by almost 25% annually, compared to the 5% growth rate of
international trade. This investment has been a powerful catalyst for economic
growth.
But as with many of the other aspects of globalization, foreign investment is raising
any new questions about economic, cultural and political relationships around the
world. Flows of investment and the rules that govern or fail to govern it can have
profound impacts upon such diverse issues as economic development,
environmental protection, labor standards and economic stability.
1
1.2 Forms of Foreign Investment
International investment or capital flows fall into four principal categories:
Commercial loans: These primarily take the form of loans by banks to foreign
businesses or governments.
Official flows: This category refers generally to the forms of development assistance
given by developed countries to developing ones.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): This category refers to international investment in
which the investor obtains a lasting interest in an enterprise in another country. FDI is
calculated to include all kinds of capital contributions, such as the purchases of stocks,
as well as the reinvestment of earnings by a wholly owned company incorporated
abroad (subsidiary), and the lending of funds to a foreign subsidiary or branch. The
reinvestment of earnings and transfer of assets between a parent company and its
subsidiary often constitutes a significant part of FDI calculations. An investor's
earnings on FDI take the form of profits such as dividends, retained earnings,
management fees and royalty payments.
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI): FPI is a category of investment instruments that
are more easily traded, may be less permanent, and do not represent a controlling
stake in an enterprise. These include investments via equity instruments (stocks) or
debt (bonds) of a foreign enterprise which does not necessarily represent a long-term
interest. The returns that an investor acquires on FPI usually take the form of interest
payments or non-voting dividends. Investments in FPI that are made for less than one
year are distinguished as short-term portfolio flows. Until the 1980s, commercial
loans from banks were the largest source of foreign investment in developing
countries. However, since that time, the levels of lending through commercial loans
have remained relatively constant, while the levels of global FDI and FPI have
increased dramatically. Over the period 1991 - 1998, FDI and FPI comprised 90% of
the total capital flows to developing countries.
Similarly, when viewed against the tremendous and growing volume of FDI and FPI,
the funds provided in the past by governments through official development
assistance, or lending by commercial banks the World Bank or IMF, are diminishing
in importance with each passing year. When one talks about the recent phenomenon
2
of globalization therefore, one is referring in large part to the effects of FDI and FPI,
and these two instruments will therefore be the primary focus of this issue brief.
India has been ranked at the second place in global foreign direct investments in 2010
and will continue to remain among the top five attractive destinations for international
investors during 2010-12 period, according to United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD) in a report on world investment prospects titled, 'World
Investment Prospects Survey 2009-2012'. There are many favourable factors in the
indian economy that are tempting foreign investors to invest in india.
3
1.4 Impact of FII on stock market:
The FIIs are major institutional investors in Indian capital market. Movement in the
sensex has clearly been driven by the behavior of foreign institution investors. The
presence of foreign institution investor in the sensex companies and their active
trading behaviors‟, their role in determining the share price movements must be
considerable. Indian stock markets are known to be known narrow and shallow in the
sense that there are few companies whose shares are actively traded. Although there
are 4700 companies listed with stock exchange. FIIs can also affect the behavior of
other retail investors, who tend to follow the FIIs when making their investment
decision.
These features of Indian stock markets induce a high degree of instability for four
reasons:
First: Increase in investment by FIIs cause sharp price increase. It would provide
additional incentives for FII investment and this encourages further investment so that
there is a tendency for any correction of price unwaeabted by price earnings ratios to
be delayed. And when the correction begins it would have to lead by an FII pullout
and can take the form of extremely sharp decline in the share prices.
Second: As and when FIIs are attracted to the market by expectations of a price
increase that tend to be automatically realized, the inflow of foreign capital can result
in an appreciation of the rupee. This increases the return earned in foreign exchange,
when rupee assets are sold and the revenue converted into dollars. As a result, the
investments turn even more attractive triggering an investment twisting that would
4
Third: The growing realization by the FIIs of the power they wield in what are
and choosing an appropriate moment to exit. This implicit manipulation of the market
FIIs hold a much higher percentage of shares that are normally available for trading in
the market therefore to judge the real influence of the FIIs on the share prices of
controlled by FIIs.
It shows that average equity holding by FIIs is more than 20% in the sensex
companies. It also shows that investor groups, FIIs are the biggest non-promoter
5
CHAPTER 2
INDUSTRY PROFILE
hassles, and shortages of power and infrastructure deficiencies. India presents a vast
potential for overseas investment and is actively encouraging the entrance of foreign
players into the market. No companies, of any size, aspiring to be a global player can,
for long ignore this country, which is expected to become one of the top three
emerging economies.
Success in India:
Success in India will depend on the correct estimation of the country's potential;
failure. While calculating, due consideration should be given to the factor of the
careful research. For those who take the time and look to India as an opportunity for
long-term growth, not short-term profit- the trip will be well worth the effort.
Market potential:
India is the fifth largest economy in the world (ranking above France, Italy, the United
Kingdom, and Russia) and has the third largest GDP in the entire continent of Asia. It
is also the second largest among emerging nations. (These indicators are based on
purchasing power parity). India is also one of the few markets in the world, which
offers high prospects for growth and earning potential in practically all areas of
6
businesses, the world's most populous democracy has, until fairly recently, failed to
Diverse Market:
The Indian market is widely diverse. The country has 17 official languages, 6 major
religions, and ethnic diversity as wide as all of Europe. Thus, tastes and preferences
good understanding of the Indian market and overall economy before taking the
plunge.
reduce the overall portfolio risk and even earn higher returns. Investors in developed
countries can effectively enhance their portfolio performance by adding foreign stocks
particularly those from emerging market countries where stock markets have
International portfolio flows are largely determined by the performance of the stock
markets of the host countries relative to world markets. With the opening of stock
countries have increasingly sought to realize the potential for portfolio diversification
7
It is likely that for quite a few years to come, FII flows would increase with global
integration. The main question is whether capital flew in to these countries primarily
indicators in the recipient countries like its credit rating and domestic stock market
return. The answer is mixed – both global and country-specific factors seem to matter,
with the latter being particularly important in the case of Asian countries and for debt
The term foreign institutional investment denotes all those investors or investment
companies that are not located within the territory of the country in which they are
investing. These are actually the outsiders in the financial markets of the particular
India. The type of institutions that are involved in the foreign institutional investment
are as follows:
Mutual Funds
Hedge Funds
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies.
in India
8
Dated Government Securities;
Commercial papers.
management, joint-venture, transfer of technology and expertise. There are two types
of FDI: inward foreign direct investment and outward foreign direct investment,
resulting in a net FDI inflow (positive or negative) and "stock of foreign direct
investment", which is the cumulative number for a given period. Foreign investment
9
TABLE:1
SHARE OF TOP INVESTING COUNTRIES FDI EQUITY INFLOWS
(Financial years): Amount ` in crores (US$ in million)
10
CHART:1
MAURITIUS
Top 10 investing countries
SINGAPORE
20% U.S.A.
42% U.K.
1% NETHERLANDS
2%
JAPAN
2%
CYPRUS
4% GERMANY
FRANCE
4% U.A.E.
4%
5% others
7% 9%
11
TABLE-2
SECTORS ATTRACTING HIGHEST FDI EQUITY INFLOWS:
12
CHART:2
SERVICE SECTOR
TELECOM M UNICATIONS
21%
HOUSING & REAL ESTATE
33%
CONSTRUCTION
POWER SECTOR
8%
M ETALLURGICAL INDUSTRIES
2% 8%
2% PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
3% 7%
4%
5% 7%
CHEM ICALS
OTHERS
India's Central Bank - the RBI - was established on 1 April 1935 and was nationalized
on 1 January 1949. Some of its main objectives are regulating the issue of bank notes,
managing India's foreign exchange reserves, operating India's currency and credit
system with a view to securing monetary stability and developing India's financial
monetary policy with a view to promoting stability of prices while encouraging higher
production through appropriate deployment of credit. The RBI plays an important role
13
in maintaining the exchange value of the Rupee and acts as an agent of the
government in respect of India's membership of IMF. The RBI also performs a variety
The first concern of a central bank is the maintenance of a soundly based commercial
banking structure. While this concern has grown to comprehend the operations of all
intermediaries, the commercial banks remain the core of the banking system. A
central bank must also cooperate closely with the national government. Indeed, most
governments and central banks have become intimately associated in the formulation
of policy.They are often responsible for formulating and implementing monetary and
credit policies, usually in cooperation with the government. they have been
In 1988 the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) was established by the
as a fully autonomous body (a statutory Board) in the year 1992 with the passing of
the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act (SEBI Act) on 30th January 1992. In
defined responsibilities, to cover both development & regulation of the market, and
14
To promote the development of Securities Market;
Since its inception SEBI has been working targetting the securities and is attending to
the fulfillment of its objectives with commendable zeal and dexterity. The
establishment of clearing corporations etc. reduced the risk of credit and also reduced
registration norms, the eligibility criteria, the code of obligations and the code of
conduct for different intermediaries like, bankers to issue, merchant bankers, brokers
and others. It has framed bye-laws, risk identification and risk management systems
for Clearing houses of stock exchanges, surveillance system etc. which has made
the BSE SENSEX is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks and was started
on January 1, 1986. The Sensex is regarded as the pulse of the domestic stock markets
in India. It consists of the 30 largest and most actively traded stocks, representative of
various sectors, on the Bombay Stock Exchange. These companies account for around
15
fifty per cent of the market capitalization of the BSE. The base value of the Sensex
is 100 on April 1, 1979, and the base year of BSE-SENSEX is 1978-79 As of 5 April
4 Cipla Ltd.,
5 DLF Ltd.,
6 HDFC,
13 ITC Ltd.,
16
14 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.,
19 NTPC Ltd.,
20 ONGC Ltd.,
17
30 Wipro Ltd.
At regular intervals, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) authorities review and
modify its composition to be sure it reflects current market conditions. The index is
calculated based on a free float capitalization method; a variation of the market cap
method. Instead of using a company's outstanding shares it uses its float, or shares that
are readily available for trading. The free-float method, therefore, does not include
restricted stocks, such as those held by promoters, government and strategic investors.
Sensex falls
Some major single-day falls of the Sensex have occurred on the following dates
18
March 13, 2008 --- 770.63 points
19
CHAPTER 3
LITERATURE REVIEW
Gupta Rajnarayan (March 2010) (5) has studied on reaction of stock market towards
flow of FII and he recognized the fact that the growth of the major share price indices
among economists and business experts on the cause of this surge. Some opine that
the stock market is guided solely by international factors and especially by flows of
foreign Institutional investment. On the other hand, there are people who believe that
the stock market boom reflects strong fundamentals of the economy in addition to
international factors. The present study attempts to identify the key variables -
domestic and international, that affect share prices. Empirical investigation shows,
however, that both domestic and international factors govern the movement of
SENSEX, the most widely referred share price index of the country. The Power of FII
to influence the capital market of the country can‟t be exaggerate but the bourses if
the country are governed by the performance of the country's own economy.
Syed Khaja Safiuddin ( January 2010) (8) has studied on Foreign Direct Investment
Inflows in India-Opportunities and Benefits He found that since the last decade of the
Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are on an increasing trend. Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) and liberalization/globalisation has been one of the most fascinating and hot
20
sectors in India has become a point of discussion due to various reasons. Starting
manufacturing etc there is a continuous fluctuation in FDI inflows over the years.
Earlier FDI was the target for manufacturing industries, automobile industries,
transportation industry etc., but since a couple of years Service Sector has been seen
attracting the highest FDI inflows The present study is conducted to study the Sector-
wise FDI inflows in India and the reasons for industrial sectors attracting the highest
of foreign direct investment (FDI). Discussed are early studies of determinants of FDI
(1) as well as determinants of FDI based on the neoclassical trade theory (2),
ownership advantages (3), aggregate variables (4), the ownership, location and
internalization advantage framework (5), horizontal and vertical FDI models (6), the
knowledge-capital model (7), diversified FDI and risk diversification models (8) and
policy variables (9). From each of the nine theories, the relevant determinants of FDI
are derived. Empirical studies indicate the importance of these determinants in the
real world. The paper shows that there is not one single theory of FDI, but a variety of
based on a single theoretical model. Instead, FDI should be explained more broadly
21
Anokye m. Adam and George Twenboal (2009) (1) has studied on Foreign Direct
error correction model they examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
on the stock market development in Ghana it indicates that there exists a long-run
relationship between FDI, nominal exchange rate and stock market development in
Ghana. We find that a shock to FDI significantly influence the development of stock
market in Ghana.
Bellak Christian, Leibeecht Markus and Riedle Aleksandra (March 2008) (2) they
analyze the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) across selected Central
labour cost measure which is relevant for the location decisions of Multinational
net-FDI flows between seven home and eight host countries for the period of 1995–
2003. Results suggest that higher unit labour costs as well as higher total labour costs
affect FDI negatively, whereas higher labour productivity impacts positively on FDI.
Our results support the choice of unit labour costs as the proper measure of labour
costs, not least to avoid an omitted variable bias resulting from the exclusion of labour
productivity. Standardised beta coefficients imply that all cost factors taken together
(distance, taxes, labour costs) exert a considerable influence upon the decision to
invest in the CEECs. In order to compensate for the rising wage costs in many CEECs,
22
Kulwant Rai & N R Bhanumurthy (March 2007) (6) studied on Determinants of
Foreign Institutional Investment in India:The role of Return, Risk and Inflation his
which have crossed almost US$ 12 billions by the end of 2002. Given the huge
volume of these flows and its impact on the other domestic financial markets
understanding the behavior of these flows becomes very important at the time of
liberalizing capital account. In this study, by using monthly data, we found that FII
inflow depends on stock market returns, inflation rate (both domestic and foreign) and
ex-ante risk. In terms of magnitude, the impact of stock market returns and the ex-ante
risk turned out to be major determinants of FII inflow. This study did not find any
causation running from FII inflow to stock returns as it was found by some studies.
Stabilizing the stock market volatility and minimizing the ex-ante risk would help in
attracting more FII inflow that has positive impact on the real economy
B. V. Phani , Chinmoy Ghosh and John Harding (August 2004) (3) has done study on
Equity Prices: Evidence from the Indian Banking Sector .he concluded that Foreign
Direct investment (FDI) limits were liberalized in India to allow more than fifty-
sector and government owned banks posted significant and large value gains
surrounding the announcement ,the gains by private sector banks being almost double
that by government banks. The analyses how that the price increase is higher for
smaller banks that have less debt, are less efficient, less productive, and burdened
23
hypothesis that the valuation gains reflect the vulnerability to and premium of
Rajesh Chakrabarti (December 2001) (7)has studied on FII Flows to India:Nature and
Causes. He concluded that Since the beginning of liberalisation FII flows to India
have steadily grown in importance. In this paper we analyse these flows and their
relationship with other economic variables and arrive at the following major
conclusions: (a) While the flows are highly correlated with equity returns in India,
they are more likely to be the effect than the cause of these returns; (b) The FIIs do
investors; (c) The Asian Crisis marked a regime shift in the determinants Of FII
flows to India with the domestic equity returns becoming the sole driver of these
flows since the crisis. Given the thinness of the Indian market and its susceptibility to
manipulations, FII flows can aggravate the equity market bubbles, though they do not
24
CHAPTER 4
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
fluctuation influenced by many known and unknown variables so here the attempts
has been made to find the impact of foreign institutional investment and foreign direct
investment on SENSEX
past.
Examine whether FIIs and FDI have any influence on Equity Stock Market.
The Research is carried out by taking the data of Sensex ,FII and FDI and the attempts
are made to find out the relationship between stock market i.e. sensex and flow of FII
and FDI in the economy Then if we find that there is relation between movement of
stock market and flow of FII and FDI then attempts are made to find out rational
25
behind it. And afterwards attempts are made to find out the ways to minimise such
effect.
4.8 HYPOTHESIS:
Null Hypothesis (Ho): There is no influence of FIIs and FDIs on the equity stock
market
Alternative Hypothesis (H1): There is an influence of FIIs and FDIs on
Stock indexes.
26
CHAPTER 5
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
Portfolio flows – often referred to as “hot money” – are notoriously volatile compared
to other forms of capital flows. Investors are known to pull back portfolio investments
at the slightest hint of trouble in the host country often leading to disastrous
consequences to its economy. They have been blamed for exacerbating small
often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the
nearly completely hidden by noise.Trend analysis is done for five years that is 2006,
27
TABLE:5 TRENDS IN FII INVESTMENT (YEAR: 2006)
10000
7572.2
6532.2
5000
FII inflow (RS in cr)
0
J a n. - Fe b. - M ar . - A pr - 0 6 M a y - 0 6 J un- 0 6 J ul - 0 6 A ug- 0 6 Se p- 0 6 Oc t - 0 6 N ov - 0 6 D e c - 0 6
-614.17
06 06 06 -2342.95 -911.11
-5000
-10000
-11558.6
-15000
Months
In year 2006 we can see mixed trend for first three years it is positive and then sharp
negative trend can be seen because of stock market crash in May 2006, then slow and
28
TABLE: 6 TRENDS IN FII INVESTMENT (YEAR: 2007)
CHART:4
15000
FII inflow( RS in cr)
7868.85 8016.24
10000
- 262.52 1734.54
5000
0
J a n- 0 7 F e b- 0 7 M a r- 0 7 A pr- 0 7 M a y- J un- 0 7 J ul- 0 7 A ug- 0 7 S e p- 0 7 O c t - 0 7 N o v- D ec-07
-5000 07
- 12338.5 07
- 433.26 - 119.97
-10000 - 534.62 - 1361.25 - 6819.8
-15000 - 13689.3
-20000
Months
At the begning of year 2007 NET FII is negative because of high selling pressure
due to further crash in stock market in April, Auguest, October, November, December.
29
TABLE: 7 TRENDS IN FII INVESTMENT (YEAR: 2008)
MONTHS Equity (Rs. crores)
Gross Net
purchase Gross sales Investment
Jan-08 97,579.50 127,027.01 -29,447.51
Feb-08 64,267.47 68,318.59 -4,051.12
March-08 68,472.59 72,236.39 -3,763.80
April-08 59,546.97 62,083.85 -2,536.88
May-08 58,982.92 65,678.51 -6,695.59
June-08 60,693.06 73,360.22 -12,667.16
July-08 62,050.69 66,654.69 -4,604.00
Aug-08 62,050.69 66,654.69 -4,604.00
Sep-08 65,932.27 78,435.01 -12,502.74
Oct-08 48,413.60 64,067.10 -15,653.50
Nov-08 28,093.92 33,552.88 -5,458.96
Dec-08 29,362.68 28,327.87 1,034.81
CHART:5
5000 1034.81
0
FII inflow (RS in cr)
Jan-08 F eb- M ar- A pr-08 M ay- Jun-08 Jul-08 A ug- Sep- Oct-08 N o v- D ec-
-5000 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
-10000 -2536.88 -4604
-35000
Months
stock market crash in 2007 shows it impact in 2008 and creates high selling pressure
so in 2008 negative trend of FII can be seen.
30
TABLE: 8 TRENDS IN FII INVESTMENT (YEAR: 2009)
MONTHS Equity (Rs. crores)
Gross purchase Gross sales Net Investment
Jan-09 28,447.81 33,620.63 -5,172.82
Feb-09 22,066.26 24,899.69 -2,833.43
March-09 31,646.90 32,330.47 -683.57
April-09 38,871.53 33,311.43 5,560.10
May-09 73,016.96 59,130.87 13,886.09
June-09 61,767.47 61,852.61 -85.14
July-09 58,990.29 60,354.89 -1,364.60
Aug-09 45,722.53 49,489.56 -3,767.03
Sep-09 62,872.65 49,541.22 13,331.43
Oct-09 63,964.86 63,964.73 0.13
Nov-09 48,761.93 47,053.86 1,708.07
Dec-09 45,029.99 40,789.13 4,240.86
CHART:6
10000
FII inflow (RS in cr)
5560.1
4240.86
5000
1,708.07
0.13
0
Jan-09 F eb-09 M ar-09 A pr-09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 A ug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 N o v-09 D ec-09
-5000 -1364.6
-2833.43 -683.57 -85.14
-5172.82 -3767.03
-10000
Months
After the negative flow of FII in last 2 years in year 2009 positive flow of FII can be
seen . however in first three months selling by FII is continue.
31
TABLE: 9 TRENDS IN FII INVESTMENT (YEAR: 2010)
MONTHS Equity (Rs. crores)
Gross Net
purchase Gross sales Investment
Jan-10 56,109.18 63,325.85 -7,216.67
Feb-10 39,001.43 40,944.90 -1,943.47
March-10 59,692.57 44,900.24 14,792.33
April-10 55,061.05 52,393.68 2,667.37
May-10 49,588.04 61,659.16 -12,071.12
June-10 51,878.01 44,164.06 7,713.95
July-10 52,571.21 44,030.15 8,541.06
Aug-10 56,120.24 48,582.94 7,537.30
Sep-10 74,920.16 52,444.52 22,475.64
Oct-10 77,706.10 63,318.04 14,388.06
Nov-10 79,726.26 74,375.39 5,350.87
Dec-10 52,683.49 53,405.68 -722.19
CHART:7
25,000.00 22,475.64
20,000.00
FII inflow (RS in cr)
14,792.33 14,388.06
15,000.00
7713.95 8,541.06 7,537.30
10,000.00 5,350.87
2667.73
5,000.00
0.00
Jan-10 F eb-10 M ar-10 A pr-10 M ay-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 A ug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 N o v-10 D ec-10
-5,000.00
-1,943.47 -722.19
-10,000.00 -7,216.67
-12,071.12
-15,000.00
Months
In year 2010 positive flow can be seen but at the slow and steady rate.
32
5.2 TREND ANALYSIS OF FDI IN INDIA:
TABLE: 10 TRENDS IN FDI IN INDIA IN 2006:
Foreign Direct
Investment
Months ( Rs in CR.)
Jan.-06 2141
Feb.-06 563
Mar.-06 5515
Apr-06 2,972
May-06 2,443
Jun-06 2,405
Jul-06 5,235
Aug-06 2,878
Sep-06 4,222
Oct-06 7,718
Nov-06 5,157
Dec-06 9,108
CHART:8
10000
9,108
9000
7,718
8000
7000
6000 5515
5,235
FDI (RS in cr)
5,157
5000 FDI
4,222
4000
2,878
2,972
3000 2,443 2,405
2141
2000
1000 563
0
Jan.-06 Feb.-06 Mar.-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06
MONTHS
In the year 2006 FDI increases every month and reaches up to 9,108cr. Which is the
33
TABLE: 11 TRENDS IN FDI IN INDIA IN 2007:
Foreign Direct
Investment
Months ( Rs in cr)
Jan-07 8,515
Feb-07 3,081
Mar-07 16,896
Apr-07 6,928
May-07 8,642
Jun-07 5,048
Jul-07 2,849
Aug-07 3,394
Sep-07 2,876
Oct-07 8,008
Nov-07 7,353
Dec-07 6,146
CHART:9
18,000 16,896
16,000
14,000
FDI (Rs in cr)
12,000
10,000 8,515 8,642 8,008 7,353
6,928 FDI
8,000 6,146
6,000 3,081 5,048
2,8493,394 2,876
4,000
2,000
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
Months
In the year 2007 FDI is highest in the month of March that is 16,806 cr. And lowest in
34
TABLE: 12 TRENDS IN FDI IN INDIA IN 2008:
Foreign
Direct
Investment
MONTHS (Rs in cr)
Jan-08 6,960
Feb-08 22,529
Mar-08 17,932
Apr-08 15,005
May-08 16,563
Jun-08 10,244
Jul-08 9,627
Aug-08 9,995
Sep-08 11,676
Oct-08 7,284
Nov-08 5,305
Dec-08 6,626
CHART:10
25,000 22,529
FDI inflw ( rs in cr)
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-08 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Months
In 2008 all the months FDI is significantly high it reaches to 22,520 cr in the month
of February.
35
TABLE: 13 TRENDS IN FDI IN INDIA IN 2009:
Foreign Direct
Investment
Months (Rs in cr)
Jan-09 13,346
Feb-09 7,329
Mar-09 10,023
Apr-09 11,708
May-09 10,168
Jun-09 12,335
Jul-09 17,045
Aug-09 15,796
Sep-09 7,326
Oct-09 10,895
Nov-09 8,081
Dec-09 7,185
CHART:11
Foreign Direct Investment
18,000 17,045
15,796
16,000
FDI inflow (Rs in cr)
13,346
14,000 11,708 12,335
10,895
12,000 10,023 10,168
10,000 7,326 8,081
7,329 7,185 FDI
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-09 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
Months
in year 2009 average FDI flow is increased it is incresing in each and every months.
36
TABLE: 14 TRENDS IN FDI IN INDIA IN 2010:
Foreign Direct
Investment
Months (Rs in cr)
Jan-10 9,386
Feb-10 7,955
Mar-10 5,497
Apr-10 9,697
May-10 10,135
Jun-10 6,429
Jul-10 8,359
Aug-10 6,196
Sep-10 9,754
Oct-10 6,185
Nov-10 7,328
Dec-10 9,094
CHART:12
12,000
9,697 10,135 9,754
9,386 9,094
FDI inflow( rs in cr)
10,000
7,955 8,359 7,328
8,000 6,429 6,196 6,185
5,497
6,000 FDI
4,000
2,000
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-10 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Months
In the year 2010 it can be seen that FDI is incresing at very fast rate in every months .
37
5.3 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FII AND SENSEX:
CHART:13
16000 10000
14000
5000
12000
FII net inflow
10000
SENSEX
0
8000
6000 -5000
4000
-10000
2000
0 -15000
Jan.- Feb.- Mar.- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov-
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 SENSEX
MONTHS FII NET INFLOW
38
Model R R Square
1 .663 .439
Co-relation (R) :
0.663 which shows positive relationship between FII Flow and SENSEX movements .
independent variable (FII). Here R2 is 0.439 so, it shows that in the changes in
SLOP of regression:
Here slop of regression is 0.020 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 7.053
F tabular = 0.26
39
Fcal > Ftab
So, we reject our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FII on
movement of SENSEX and hence we accept that there is significant impact of flow of
% Change in % change in
40
CHART:14
25,000.00 20000
15000
20,000.00 10000
15,000.00 5000
0
10,000.00 -5000
5,000.00 -10000
-15000
0.00 -20000
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07
MONTHS SENSEX
FII NET INFLOW
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .197 .039
Co-relation (R)
0.197 which shows positive relationship between FII Flow and SENSEX movements .
41
independent variable (FII). Here R2 is 0.039 so, it shows that in the changes in
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.003 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.404
F tabular = 0.539
So, we accept our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FII on
movement of SENSEX
42
CHART:15
20,000.00 5000
0
15,000.00 -5000
-10000
10,000.00 -15000
-20000
5,000.00 -25000
-30000
0.00 -35000
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SENSEX
MONTHS FII net inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .512 .262
Co-relation (R) :
0.512 which shows positive relationship between FII Flow and SENSEX movements .
independent variable (FII). Here R2 is 0.262 so, it shows that in the changes in
43
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is -0.42 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 3.546
F tabular = 0.089
So, we Reject our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FII on
movement of SENSEX and hence we accept that there is significant impact of flow of
44
CHART:16
20,000.00 15000
10000
5000
10,000.00
0
5,000.00
-5000
0.00 -10000
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09
SENSEX
MONTHS
Fii net inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .031 .001
Co-relation (R) :
0.031 which shows positive relationship between FII Flow and SENSEX movements .
independent variable (FII). Here R2 is 0.001 so, it shows that in the changes in
45
SLOP of regression:
Here slop of regression is 0.007 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.009
F tabular = 0.924
So, we accept our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FII on
movement of SENSEX .
46
CHART:17
FII and SENSEX in 2010
25,000.00 25,000.00
20,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
15,000.00 10,000.00
5,000.00
10,000.00 0.00
-5,000.00
5,000.00
-10,000.00
0.00 -15,000.00
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
SENSEX
MONTHS
Fii net inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .129 .017
Co-relation (R)
0.129 which shows positive relationship between FII Flow and SENSEX movements .
independent variable (FII). Here R2 is 0.017 so, it shows that in the changes in
47
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.007 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.009
F tabular = 0.924
So, we accept our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FII on
movement of SENSEX
% CHANGE % CHANGE
MONTHS FDI IN FDI Sensex IN SENSEX
jan.-06 2141 9919.89 -
Feb.-06 563 -73.70387669 10370.24 4.53986889
Mar.-06 5515 879.5737123 11279.96 8.772410282
Apr-06 2,972 -46.11060743 12,042.56 6.760662272
May-06 2,443 -17.79946164 10,398.61 -13.65116719
Jun-06 2,405 -1.555464593 10,609.25 2.025655352
Jul-06 5,235 117.6715177 10,743.88 1.268986969
Aug-06 2,878 -45.02387775 11,699.05 8.89036363
Sep-06 4,222 46.69909659 12,454.42 6.456678106
Oct-06 7,718 82.80435812 12,961.90 4.074697979
Nov-06 5,157 -33.18217155 13,696.31 5.665913176
Dec-06 9,108 76.61431065 13,786.91 0.661492037
48
CHART:18
16000 10000
14000 9000
8000
12000
7000
FDI Inflow
SENSEX
10000 6000
8000 5000
6000 4000
3000
4000
2000
2000 1000
0 0
jan.- Feb.- Mar.- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
SENSEX
MONTH
FDI inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .260 .068
Co-relation (R)
0.260 which shows positive relationship between FDI investment and SENSEX
independent variable (FDI). Here R2 is 0.068 so, it shows that in the changes in
49
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.006 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.654
F tabular = 0.440
So, we Reject our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSEX and accept that there is significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSEX
50
CHART:19
25,000.00 18,000
16,000
20,000.00 14,000
FDI Inflow
SENSEX
12,000
15,000.00
10,000
8,000
10,000.00
6,000
5,000.00 4,000
2,000
0.00 0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- A Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
07 07 07 07 ay- 07 07 ug- 07 07 07 07
07 07
SENSEX
MONTH
FDI Inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .133 .018
Co-relation (R)
0.133 which shows positive relationship between FDI investment and SENSEX
independent variable (FDI). Here R2 is 0.018 so, it shows that in the changes in
51
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.006 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.179
F tabular = 0.681
So, we accept our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSEX
52
CHART:20
20,000.00 25,000
18,000.00
16,000.00 20,000
14,000.00
SENSEX
FDI Inflow
12,000.00 15,000
10,000.00
8,000.00 10,000
6,000.00
4,000.00 5,000
2,000.00
0.00 0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
SENSEX
MONTH FDI Inflow
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .275 .076
Co-relation (R)
0.275 which shows positive relationship between FDI investment and SENSEX
independent variable (FDI). Here R2 is 0.076 so, it shows that in the changes in
53
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.042 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
FDI there is 0.042 unit of increase/decrease in sensex.
F test :
F calculated = 0.819
F tabular = 0.387
So, we Regect our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSE and hence we accept that there is significant impact of flow of
FDI on movement of SENSEX
54
CHART:21
20,000.00 20,000
SENSEX
15,000.00 15,000
FDI Inflow
10,000.00 10,000
5,000.00 5,000
0.00 0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- A S Oct- N D
09 09 09 09 ay- 09 09 ug- ep- 09 ov- ec-
09 09 09 09 09 SENSEX
FDI Inflow
MONTHS
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .220 .048
Co-relation (R)
0.220 which shows positive relationship between FDI investment and SENSEX
independent variable (FDI). Here R2 is 0.048 so, it shows that in the changes in
55
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is - 0.051 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.507
F tabular = 0.493
So, we Regect our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSE and hence we accept that there is significant impact of flow of
56
TABLE:24 FDI AND SENSEX IN 2010
CHART:22
15,000.00 8,000
6,000
10,000.00
4,000
5,000.00 2,000
0.00 0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- M Jun- Jul- A S Oct- N D
10 10 10 10 ay- 10 10 ug- ep- 10 ov- ec-
10 10 10 10 10
SENSEX
MONTHS FDI INFLOW
Model Summary
Model R R Square
1 .026 .001
57
Co-relation (R)
0.026 which shows positive relationship between FDI investment and SENSEX
independent variable (FDI). Here R2 is 0.001 so, it shows that in the changes in
SLOP of regression
Here slop of regression is 0.003 which shows that for every unit increase/decrease in
F test :
F calculated = 0.007
F tabular = 0.936
So, we accept our Ho that There is no any significant impact of flow of FDI on
movement of SENSEX
58
CHAPTER 6
FINDINGS & SUGGESTIONS:
6.1 FINDINGS
It is an accepted fact now that FIIs have significant influence on the movements of the
stock market indexes in India. If one looks at the total FII trade in equity in India and
its relationship with the stock market major indexes like Sensex it shows a steadily
In the Indian stock markets FIIs have a disproportionately high level of influence on
the market sentiments and price trends. This is so because other market participants
perceive the FIIs to be infallible in their assessment of the market and tend to follow
the decisions taken by FIIs. This „herd instinct‟ displayed by other market participants
The findings of this study also indicate that Foreign Institutional Investors have
emerged as the most dominant investor group in the domestic stock market in India.
Particularly, in the companies that constitute the Bombay Stock Market Sensitivity
Index (Sensex).
Since FIIs are dominating the Indian Market, individual investors are forced to accept
the dictates of major FIIs and hence join the group by entering the Mutual Fund group.
Many Mutual Funds floated specific funds for the sectors favored by the FIIs. An
implication of MFs gaining strength in the Indian stock market could be that unlike
individual investors, whose monies they manage, MFs can create market trends
whereas the small individual investors can only follow the trends. The situation
becomes quite difficult if the funds gain a vested interest in certain sectors by floating
sector specific funds. One can even venture to say that the behavior of MFs in India
59
has turned the very logic that mutual funds invest wisely on the basis of well-
researched strategies and individual investors do not have the time and resources to
down. Thus, the entry of FIIs has not resulted in greater depth in Indian stock
level playing field, even the domestic investors had to be offered lower rates of
While it can be expected that foreign affiliated mutual funds would follow the
investment pattern of FIIs, it is important to note that many domestic ones also
Followed FIIs. The sectors favored by FIIs account for a substantial portion of the
net assets under control of many Mutual Funds. The Mutual funds are gaining
prominence in the Indian Stock market and that the share of foreign affiliated MFs is
On the other hand if FII investments constitute a large share of the equity capital
country can have significant implications for the financial health of what is an
capital from the market, it can impact adversely on the value of the rupee and set
crisis. There are now too many instances of such effects worldwide for it be dismissed
on the ground that India's reserves are adequate to manage the situation.
60
6.2 SUGGESTIONS
Some of the steps that can be taken to help influence the choices made by foreign
1) The Government should cut its fiscal deficits, which would result in strengthening
investment in India.
3) The ability of governments to prevent or reduce financial crises also has a great
impact on the growth of capital flows. Steps to address these crises include
markets.
4) An attempt should be made to bring down the inflation level to attract more foreign
6) The fact is that developing country like India has its own compulsions arising out
of the very state of their social, political and economic development. To attract
portfolio investments and retain their confidence, the host countries have to follow
7) The provision for clear procedures must be followed in the event of disputes
between investors and host governments, to ensure that rules are adhered to and that
61
6.3 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY:
The time duration of the research is short that‟s why the information is not covered
fully.
It is mainly based on the data available in various websites &other secondary sources.
Research work can be done by taking data of more than 5 years to provide better
result .
The resarch can be done on the movement of other stock indices like nifty-50, nifty
junior etc.
Different tools and techniques can be used to analyse the data of FII and FDI and its
62
REFERENCES:
1) Anokye m. Adam and George Twenboal ; Foreign Direct Investment And Stock
Market Development ; Internationl Research journal of finance and economics.
5) Gupta Rajnarayan ; Reaction of stock market towards flow of FII ; Finance India;
Vol.24
9) http://www.indiainfoline.com/MarketStatistics/FII-Activity
10) http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_fdi_dec_2006.pdf
11) http://www.bseindia.com
63
ANNEXTURE:
Sensex data
64
Jan 08 20,325.27 21,206.77 15,332.42 17,648.71 25.53 6.35 0.88
65
Dec 10 19,529.99 20,552.03 19,074.57 20,509.09 22.93 3.73 1.05
66