Investment Decision Making Using A Combined Factor Analysis and Entropy-Based Topsis Model
Investment Decision Making Using A Combined Factor Analysis and Entropy-Based Topsis Model
Investment Decision Making Using A Combined Factor Analysis and Entropy-Based Topsis Model
Li-Chang Hsu
Abstract. Traditionally, the return on assets and the return on equity are used as the
criteria in the evaluation of financial performance, while risk considerations are ignored.
Therefore, this study combined financial ratio variables and the RAROC (risk-adjusted
rate of return on capital) as the evaluation criteria and developed a financial performance
evaluation model. The proposed evaluation model combines factor analysis with entropy
weight and the TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution)
to evaluate the financial performance of Taiwan’s 50 listed opto-electronic companies.
Finally, Spearman’s and Kendall’s rank correlations are used to verify that there is no
significant difference between the 2007 and 2008 rankings of the companies. The empiri-
cal results show the financial performance rankings of the companies before and after the
global financial turmoil. These findings not only help investors making investment deci-
sions, but also can help managers make decisions to improve their company’s financial
performance.
Keywords: decision making, financial performance evaluation, RAROC, TOPSIS, factor
analysis, entropy weight, opto-electronic companies.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Hsu, L.-C. 2013. Investment decision
making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model, Journal of
Business Economics and Management 14(3): 448–466.
JEL Classification: G11, G31, G32, C44, L25, L86.
1. Introduction
Performance evaluation of enterprises is an important part in modern enterprise manage-
ment. Advantages and disadvantages of financial performance may represent whether
the operating ability of an enterprise is good or bad. Financial performance evaluation
can also better display enterprise’s future growth and development potential. In the early
days, return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) were the two main indicators
used in financial performance evaluation. However, ROA and ROE cannot represent
the true operating performance of an enterprise. Therefore, a number of financial ratios
have been selected to measure companies’ financial performance. However, from an
enterprise’s point of view, all investments and all profits have different risks. Therefore,
enterprises use capital to create profits, but also to bear the risk of loss. This means
that the performance evaluation criteria must be combined with risk indicators; this can
express the advantages and disadvantages of financial performance more accurately
and thoroughly.
There are still many problems in the field of financial performance evaluation, such
as: (1) how to determine the evaluation criteria?, (2) how to evaluate the performance?
Measures of financial performance do not only show the enterprise’s financial condi-
tions or operating loss. In fact, the real purpose of financial performance evaluation
is to identify the impact of influential factors on the financial situation and to assist
enterprise managers in improving the future direction of their companies. Through a
review of previous literature, many researchers use different methods to evaluate the
financial performance of companies. One of the most widely used methods is traditional
financial ratios analysis (Laitinen 2000). For example, Seçme et al. (2009) used 27 fi-
nancial ratios to measure a bank’s financial performance evaluation. Walsh (1996) also
pointed out that the use of financial ratios as an indicator of business evaluation is the
most appropriate because it provides clear goals and standards. Wang (2008, 2009) used
ratio analysis (21 financial ratios) for financial performance evaluation, and in order to
avoid repeated evaluation on the same financial ratios, financial ratios were classified
into several clusters. Yurdakul and İç (2004) used financial ratios as a measure of vari-
ables in the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model, followed by the TOPSIS method
to obtain financial performance scores of Turkish automotive companies and textile
companies. Therefore, this study also uses financial ratios as an indicator of enterprise
performance evaluation.
Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is a decision-making process which is used
for performance evaluation. The use of MCDM techniques for company’s performance
evaluation can be divided into two parts: the first part ensures the weight of the evalua-
tion criteria and the second part obtains the ranking of each company. When the weight
of the criteria identified, the performance criteria selected for performance evaluation
is one of the important topics. The weight method can be basically classified into two
types: subjective weight and objective weight (Xie et al. 2008). Both methods have
their strengths and weaknesses. The subjective weight method has the advantage of
explaining the evaluation clearly, and the objective weight method is applied to explain
the evaluation in data (Wang et al. 2008). For a recent review of the application of the
weight methods, the entropy weight is a kind of objective weight. This kind of weight
has been used in performance evaluation studies (Chang et al. 2010; Chiang, Hsieh
2009; Chou, Tsai 2009; Wang et al. 2008; Wang, Lee 2009; Zou et al. 2006). Therefore,
this study uses the entropy method to calculate the weight of performance evaluating
indicators.
In previous studies of MCDM (Zavadskas, Turskis 2011), many methods have been
proposed and widely used in the ranking of performance evaluation, such as the Sim-
ple Additive Weighting (SAW) (Ginevičius et al. 2008; Podvezko 2011; Žvirblis,
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
Buračas 2010), AHP (Medineckiene et al. 2010; Podvezko et al. 2010; Sivilevičius,
Maskeliūnaitė 2010; Wu et al. 2007), Elimination and Choice Translating Reality
(ELECTRE) family (Parthiban et al. 2010; Radziszewska-Zielina 2010; Wang, Trian-
taphyllou 2008; Ulubeyli, Kazaz 2009), Preference Ranking Organization Method for
Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) (Behzadian et al. 2010; Podvezko, Podviezko
2010; Tomić-Plazibat et al. 2010), Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno
Resenje (VIKOR) (Antucheviciene, Zavadskas 2008; Ginevičius et al. 2010; Ou Yang
et al. 2011; Shan 2011), TOPSIS (Chang et al. 2010; Ertuğrul, Karakasoğlu 2009;
Ginevičius et al. 2010; Han, Liu 2011; Liu 2011a; Yu, Hu 2010), Additive Ratio As-
sessment (ARAS) method (Tupenaite et al. 2010; Turskis, Zavadskas 2010; Zavadskas
et al. 2010a), Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) (Kaklauskas et al. 2010;
Kildienė et al. 2011; Uzsilaityte, Martinaitis 2010), Multi-Objective Optimization by
Ratio Analysis (MOORA) (Brauers et al. 2010; Chakraborty 2011; Gadakh 2011) and
MOORA plus Full Multiplicative Form (MULTIMOORA) (Baležentis et al. 2010; Brau-
ers, Ginevičius 2010; Brauers, Zavadskas 2010). TOPSIS is one of the most popular ap-
proaches for the MCDM method. It can help managers carry out decision analysis (Yu,
Hu 2010). Meanwhile, it is also a useful tool for dealing with multi-attribute decision-
making (MADM) problems (Han, Liu 2011; Liu 2009, 2011b, 2011c). There have been
many applications of TOPSIS in previous performance evaluation studies. For example,
Chang et al. (2010) extended the TOPSIS method to the performance evaluation of 82
Taiwanese mutual funds. Ertuğrul and Karakasoğlu (2009) used the TOPSIS method to
evaluate the performance of fifteen Turkish cement firms. Yu and Hu (2010) used the
fuzzy TOPSIS method to evaluate the performance of multiple manufacturing plants in
a fuzzy environment.
Similarly, the TOPSIS method can also be used for financial performance evaluation.
For instance, Deng et al. (2000) used multiple financial ratios as assessment criteria, and
constructed a modified TOPSIS method for ranking of competing company’s financial
performance. Seçme et al. (2009) used the TOPSIS method to study a bank’s financial,
non-financial and total performance rankings. Wang (2008) used the fuzzy TOPSIS
method to evaluate the financial performance of Taiwan domestic airlines.
According to Hwang and Yoon (1981), and Wang (2008, 2009), financial performance
evaluation is a MCDM problem. Thus, based on the studies mentioned above, TOPSIS
is a classical MCDM method (Zavadskas et al. 2010b), and is appropriate for the finan-
cial performance evaluation of companies.
In light of previous studies, the use of financial ratios modeled in financial decision
making creates multicollinearity problems (Machfoedz 1994). Therefore, this study
takes multicollinearity between financial ratios into account, by using factor analysis
to reduce or eliminate multicollinearity (Zopounidis, Dimitras 1998), and to select rep-
resentative financial ratios. In order to correct the problem that traditional measures of
financial performance do not take risk into account (Karandikar et al. 2007), we use
RAROC as a risk indicator. Then we use the selected financial ratios combined with
RAROC as evaluation criteria. Finally, by using Shannon’s entropy (Shannon, Weaver
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Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2013, 14(3): 448–466
1949) to calculate the criteria weights and the TOPSIS method for ranking the com-
pany’s financial performance, the proposed method is referred to as the entropy-based
TOPSIS model.
For the purpose of testing the applicability of the proposed process for evaluating finan-
cial performance, and to discuss the changes in the companies’ financial performance
before and after the financial turmoil, this study uses Taiwan’s listed opto-electronic
companies as an empirical case. Through factor analysis combined with the entropy-
based TOPSIS model, we evaluate the financial performance of these companies in
2007 and 2008. Finally, the Spearman and Kendall rank correlation test is used to as-
sess the significance of rank correlations between 2007 and 2008. The results will allow
managers and investors to better understand their company’s financial performance and
financial position. Moreover, it may serve as a reference for investment and credit deci-
sion making for shareholders and creditors.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 determines the appropriate per-
formance evaluation criteria. Section 3 gives a detailed description of the performance
evaluation methods. Section 4 presents an analysis of the empirical results. The final
section offers a conclusion and recommendations.
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
Table 1. Summary of indicator definitions for all variables used in the empirical analysis
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these variables. The main purpose of factor analysis is to discover those jointly basic
factors and apply them to eliminate redundant variables. This method has been widely
used in financial analysis. For example, Charbaji (2001) used factor analysis as a data
reduction technique to reduce the financial ratios of Lebanon banks from 52 into 7
financial ratios. Cheng and Arif (2007) used factor analysis in Malaysia commercial
banks to reduce 21 accounting and financial ratios into four factors. Öcal et al. (2007)
used factor analysis in a Turkish construction company’s 50 financial ratios, in order to
determine the financial indicators.
Usually, the analytical steps in factor analysis can be described as follows: (1) compute
the correlation coefficient matrix of measurable variables, (2) compute Bartlett’s test of
specificity to test the adequacy of the sample population, (3) compute the Kaiser-Myer
Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy, (4) principal component analysis is the
factor extraction method used, (5) compute the factor pattern/structure coefficients for
each measurable variable, (6) Varimax with Kaiser Normalization is used in the Rotation
method to determine the number of factors to be extracted from the dataset.
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
Then, the normalized evaluation matrix R = [gij] can be calculated by the original evalu-
ation matrix D. Where gij is the data of the i-th evaluating object on the j-th indicator,
and gij ∈ [0,1]. According to Chiang and Hsieh (2009), there are three different types of
data normalization. Among these indicators, to the larger they are the better:
xij − min xij
i
γ ij = , (2)
max xij − min xij
the smaller they are the better: i i
max xij − xij
γ ij = i , (3)
max xij − min xij
i i
while, the more they are nominal the better:
xij − xobj
γ ij = , (4)
max xij − xobj
i
where max xij ≥ xij ≥ min xij , xobj is the desired value of the j-th quality characteristic.
i i
So we have the following normalized evaluation matrix:
γ11 γ12 γ1n
γ γ 22 γ 2 n
R = 21 . (5)
γ m1 γ m2 γ mn m×n
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
V+ =
(max νuj j ∈ J ) i = (ν1+ , ν +2 , , ν +j , , ν n+ ),
1, 2, , m = (14)
i
V− =
(min νij j ∈ J ) i = (ν1− , ν 2− , , ν −j , , ν n− ).
1, 2, , m = (15)
i
Step 4: By using Euclidean distance, we can calculate the separation measures.
The Euclidean distances, between Vi and V+, and between Vi and V– are calculated,
respectively, as
n
∑ ( νij − ν +j )
2
Si+
= , i = 1, 2, , m , (16)
j =1
n
∑ ( νij − ν −j )
2
Si−
= , i = 1, 2, , m . (17)
j =1
Step 5: Calculate the closeness coefficient.
The closeness coefficient of each object with an ideal solution is calculated as:
S−
Ci = + i − . (18)
Si + Si
Step 6: Rank the preference order.
A closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. The
higher the value of the closeness coefficient the better the rank.
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4. Empirical results
Empirical analysis of the evaluation process is described below. First, factor analysis
uses the principal component procedure to reduce the dimensionality of the financial
ratios. Then, the entropy-based TOPSIS model is used to rank financial performance.
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
This study used factor analysis based on principal component analysis as the extrac-
tion method and adopted Varimax with Kaiser Normalization as the rotation method.
In principal component analysis key test, we have to analyze the KMO and Bartlett’s
test. In this case, the KMO is greater than 0.5 at 0.552 and Bartlett’s test is significant
(c2(190) = 1001.09, p < 0.001) and, therefore, it seems that the sample is adequate for
factor analysis.
The results of the principal component analysis with Varimax rotation revealed six
factors, as shown in Table 2. An eigenvalue greater than 1 was set as the criterion for
selecting components, accounting for 78.651% of the total variance in the data set. The
identified factors are referred to as profitability, short-term liquidity, financial structure,
operating capability, long-term liquidity, and cash flow (see Table 2).
Then, we select a representative indicator in each factor. In this study, variables with
factor loadings of greater than 0.83 were used to form the representative financial per-
formance evaluation criteria. Thus, the 10 financial ratios in Table 2 were selected and
used in the financial performance evaluation. The selected financial ratios include vari-
ables K6, K8, K9, K3, K2, K10, K5, K1, K4, and K7.
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Table 4. The results of entropy-based TOPSIS model for financial performance evaluation
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
Continued Table 4
2007 2008 Average
Company
Si+ Si− Ci Rank Si+ Si− Ci Rank Ci Rank
15 0.1360 0.0771 0.3617 35 0.1677 0.1260 0.4289 5 0.3953 22
16 0.1365 0.0729 0.3482 39 0.1939 0.1033 0.3476 39 0.3479 40
17 0.1238 0.0903 0.4219 16 0.2035 0.0891 0.3046 47 0.3633 38
18 0.0822 0.1304 0.6135 1 0.1736 0.1209 0.4105 13 0.5120 1
19 0.1298 0.0850 0.3956 24 0.1499 0.1721 0.5345 1 0.4651 2
20 0.1069 0.1034 0.4917 3 0.1854 0.1173 0.3874 28 0.4396 9
21 0.1239 0.0749 0.3768 33 0.1550 0.1722 0.5263 2 0.4516 5
22 0.1376 0.0760 0.3558 36 0.1734 0.1219 0.4127 12 0.3843 34
23 0.1232 0.0874 0.4151 19 0.1859 0.1139 0.3799 33 0.3975 20
24 0.1364 0.0733 0.3494 38 0.1780 0.1171 0.3967 21 0.3731 37
25 0.1256 0.0793 0.3870 28 0.1798 0.1191 0.3984 19 0.3927 23
26 0.1303 0.0885 0.4044 21 0.1897 0.1071 0.3608 37 0.3826 35
27 0.1579 0.0525 0.2493 48 0.1911 0.1074 0.3598 38 0.3046 46
28 0.1344 0.0888 0.3980 23 0.1871 0.1172 0.3851 31 0.3915 25
29 0.1513 0.0616 0.2893 46 0.2104 0.0951 0.3113 46 0.3003 47
30 0.1233 0.0726 0.3706 34 0.1744 0.1181 0.4037 16 0.3871 32
31 0.1222 0.0978 0.4446 12 0.1699 0.1293 0.4321 4 0.4383 5
32 0.1354 0.0845 0.3844 30 0.1884 0.1135 0.3760 35 0.3802 36
33 0.1146 0.1087 0.4867 4 0.1825 0.1167 0.3900 26 0.4383 10
34 0.1120 0.0894 0.4439 13 0.1657 0.1216 0.4233 8 0.4336 13
35 0.1298 0.0936 0.4189 18 0.1894 0.1094 0.3662 36 0.3926 24
36 0.1474 0.0649 0.3056 45 0.1798 0.1185 0.3973 20 0.3514 39
37 0.1175 0.1014 0.4632 7 0.1743 0.1247 0.4171 10 0.4401 8
38 0.1300 0.0792 0.3785 32 0.1817 0.1208 0.3993 18 0.3889 31
39 0.1154 0.1082 0.4840 5 0.1759 0.1318 0.4284 7 0.4562 3
40 0.1446 0.0681 0.3202 43 0.1961 0.1001 0.3379 44 0.3290 44
41 0.1309 0.0842 0.3913 25 0.1823 0.1151 0.3869 30 0.3891 30
42 0.1405 0.0629 0.3092 44 0.1912 0.0992 0.3416 42 0.3254 45
43 0.1169 0.0971 0.4538 9 0.1727 0.1231 0.4161 11 0.4350 12
44 0.1334 0.0853 0.3900 27 0.1848 0.1182 0.3900 27 0.3900 28
45 0.1250 0.0832 0.3996 22 0.1820 0.1170 0.3912 24 0.3954 21
46 0.1252 0.0924 0.4247 15 0.1883 0.1157 0.3806 32 0.4027 19
47 0.1252 0.1039 0.4536 10 0.1834 0.1256 0.4065 15 0.4300 14
48 0.1292 0.0814 0.3867 29 0.1484 0.1599 0.5186 3 0.4526 4
49 0.1373 0.0663 0.3255 42 0.1935 0.1017 0.3444 41 0.3350 42
50 0.1584 0.0297 0.1579 50 0.2177 0.0654 0.2311 50 0.1945 50
Notes: Si+ : ideal solution; Si− : negative ideal solution; Ci: closeness coefficient.
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The results in Table 4 indicate that in the performance evaluation in 2008 the top three
rankings were company 19 (0.5345), 21 (0.5263), and 48 (0.5186), respectively. Among
the 50 listed companies, company 50 had the worst financial performance in 2008 (0.2311).
We calculated the average closeness coefficient values of 2007 and 2008, and based
on the results of sorting, the average ranking performance can be obtained, as shown
in Table 4. According to the average performance rankings in the two years, company
18 ranked first, company 19 was second and company 39 ranked third. In the financial
performance ranking order, the last three companies were companies 1, 7, and 50.
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L.-C. Hsu. Investment decision making using a combined factor analysis and entropy-based TOPSIS model
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Li-Chang HSU is an associate professor of economics at Ling Tung University, Taiwan. His research
areas are decision making theory, grey system theory, technology management and strategy manage-
ment. His articles are published by British Journal of Management, Service Business, Journal of
Electronic Commerce Research, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Expert Systems with
Application, and others.
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