RBIBULLC2B6CC46
RBIBULLC2B6CC46
RBIBULLC2B6CC46
EDITOR
Shashidhar M. Lokare
Speeches
Evolving Role of Central Banks 1
Articles
Demographic Changes and their Macroeconomic
Ramifications in India 25
Financial Stocks and Flows of the Indian Economy
2011-12 to 2017-18 41
Current Statistics 63
Supplement
Financial Stability Report June 2019
SpeechES
Evolving Role of Central Banks* make a difference in the lives of individuals whom
you lead. Be sure to be their mentor, guide and inspire
your team to dedicate themselves to the service of the
Shaktikanta Das nation. My advice to you would be to work towards
introducing systematic changes in the functioning of
our bureaucracy at various levels to further improve
It gives me great pleasure to be here at the Lal
the delivery of public schemes and policies. More
Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration
importantly, adhering to transparency and elimination
(LBSNAA) for the inauguration of this Phase V mid- of corruption should also be your top priorities.
career programme for IAS officers. I have many
pleasant memories of this premier training institution As policy formulation of any kind is a learning
where I had come after joining the IAS in the year process, policy makers are often guided by past
1980. I am thankful to Shri Sanjeev Chopra, Director experiences. Therefore, today I have chosen to speak
on the topic of ‘Evolving Role of Central Banks’.
of the Academy and members of the Faculty for having
invited me to address such an august gathering. Evolution of Central Banks
I am sure each one of you has worked hard and Since the beginning of central banking, which goes
achieved many milestones over the path of your long back at least to the 17th century with the establishment
careers. Where you stand today is perhaps the most of the Swedish Riksbank in 1668, the role and
important juncture in your career as you prepare for functions of monetary authorities have undergone
even higher roles and responsibilities in the Indian several changes. Some of the oldest central banks
administrative structure. I understand that most of were set up with the primary objective of providing
you would have spent around 28 to 31 years in the war time finance to governments and managing their
service. From now on you would be occupying top debts. Since then, their role has evolved over time in
positions in central and state governments. At these line with the changes in economic systems. They have
levels, you would be responsible for policy making as now transitioned into modern day central banks which
well as guiding implementation of major programmes function with the objective of supporting sustainable
and schemes. You have to carefully weigh and assess economic growth through the pursuit of price and
the suitability of various policy options and advise the financial stability.
government on the way forward. While discharging In the case of India, the Hilton Young Commission
your role at such high positions, it is very important (1926) recommended setting up of the Reserve Bank
to remember two quotes from the father of the nation, of India which was to be entrusted with pure central
Mahatma Gandhiji: (i) ‘Be the Change that you wish to banking functions. There is, however, a long history,
see in the World’; and (ii) ‘Recall the face of the poorest which can be traced back to 1773, of the efforts to set
and the most helpless man whom you may have seen up in India a banking institution, with some elements
and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going of a central bank. Consequently, the Reserve Bank was
to be of any use to him’. set up, and it commenced operations from April 1, 1935
In senior leadership positions, you will have the with the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 providing the
power to make a difference in the lives of the people statutory basis for its functioning. It was originally set
up as a shareholder’s bank, which was nationalised
of this nation. Equally, you would have the power to
later in 1949. Since then, its role has evolved over
* Shri Shaktikanta Das, Governor, Reserve Bank of India. Speech delivered
time from supporting the planned development of the
at the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration (LBSNAA),
Mussoorie on June 17, 2019. economy to a full service central bank.
Role of Central Banks during Global Financial Crisis measure was the use of negative policy interest rates,
though for achieving different objectives. The impact
Let me now elaborate on the role of central banks
of these unconventional monetary policies is well
during crisis period. While it is true that crises lead to
known by now as large amount of liquidity created in
reforms, experience shows that other extraneous and
the international financial system was channelled to
complex factors can lead to future financial crises. For
EMEs in search of yield, creating boom and bust cycles
instance, despite learning lessons on inadequacies of
in those economies.
regulation and supervision in many emerging market
economies (EMEs) during the East-Asian crisis of Regulatory Response to the Crisis
1997, the occurrence of global financial crisis of 2008 From a supervisory and regulatory perspective,
originating from advanced countries could not be the crisis revealed some significant fragilities in the
avoided. While macroeconomic vulnerabilities derived system. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
from large current account deficits, fiscal imbalances, (BCBS) succinctly summarised these weaknesses:
excessive leverage and inadequate regulation and an excessive build-up of on and off-balance sheet
supervision of financial institutions were some of the leverage, accompanied by a gradual erosion in the
most common features of this crisis, it was of truly level and quality of the capital base; insufficient
global nature with much more intensity and depth. liquidity buffers; a pro-cyclical deleveraging process;
Given the speed of transmission of the impact of and the interconnectedness of systemic institutions
global financial crisis across countries, central banks through an array of complex transactions2. The global
were once again at the forefront of policy response. regulatory response which took shape in the form of
This time, however, typical monetary policy responses the Basel III framework focussed on increasing the
of central banks were not enough to curb the turmoil level and quality of capital, constraining bank leverage,
in financial markets. In the summer of 2007, major improving bank liquidity and limiting pro-cyclicality,
central banks began with traditional monetary policy along with adding macro-prudential elements to
tools and reduced the interest rates. The economic regulations.
situation, however, deteriorated precipitously and Keeping up with the traditionally prudent
central banks were not left with much headroom in approach, India’s implementation process for Basel
their traditional policy tool kit to preserve domestic III reforms has been somewhat more stringent in
financial stability. Thus, central banks – particularly in terms of schedule as well requirements. Domestic
advanced economies – took recourse to quantitative factors and policy priorities continue to guide the
easing through unconventional policy measures to Indian approach to financial sector regulation. Thus,
contain systemic risks, shore up confidence in the the Reserve Bank has put in place the frameworks of
banking system and arrest economic slowdown. These capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer
policy measures were unconventional in terms of (CCCB), leverage ratio, Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
instruments and operational targets.1 Undoubtedly, and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR)3. More recently
the quantitative easing adopted by central banks was guidelines on large exposures were issued which
one of the boldest policy experiments in the modern became effective from April 1, 2019.
history of central banking. Another unconventional
2
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2010): ‘Basel III: A global
1
For instance, these included lending to financial institutions, targeted regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems’,
liquidity provisions for credit markets, outright purchases of public and December.
3
private assets, purchase of government bonds and forward guidance. To be implemented from April 1, 2020
Another episode of stress witnessed across EMEs in May 2013 triggered portfolio outflows
including India was during the taper talk period of from some EMEs4. This led to high volatility
mid-2013. The Indian economy was vulnerable due in equity, debt and currency markets. In
to the then prevailing high inflation of around 10 per fact, such market volatilities in EMEs could
cent and large current account deficit at 4.7 per cent have been avoided through clear advance
of GDP. The Reserve Bank resorted to a host of policy communication on calibrated withdrawal of
measures including monetary tightening, restriction monetary policy accommodation.
on gold import, special dollar swap window for public
In the Indian context, the Reserve Bank
sector oil companies, special concessional swap
communicates its monetary policy decisions
window for banks for attracting Foreign Currency
in terms of changes in the ‘Policy Repo
Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, increase in overseas
Rate’ and ‘Stance’ based on an assessment
borrowing limit of banks, and raising FII investment
of the current and evolving macroeconomic
limit in government debt.
situation. The stance of the monetary policy
What do we Learn? is communicated as neutral, accommodative
Though there is no unique solution to these or calibrated tightening in consonance with
policy issues confronting the global economy, we the mandate of achieving the medium-
could clearly draw three broad inferences: term inflation target of 4 per cent ± 2 per
cent, while keeping in mind the objective
(i) First, as we have discussed earlier, central
of growth. The Reserve Bank’s approach to
banks’ role is important, both during normal
communicate the policy stance is to explain
as well as crisis times. While mandates for
it with rationale, information and analysis to
central banks broadly remain the same
enable market participants and stakeholders
during both normal and stress periods, the
to have better clarity about the Reserve
weightage attached to competing objectives
Bank’s assessment of the evolving situation.
and the choice of policy instruments become
crucial in the crisis periods. (ii) Third, the global financial crisis was also a
testimony to the fact that coordination of
(ii) Second, communication by central banks is
policies both at the global and domestic level
very important which may be different in
is important for macro-financial stability. It
crisis times than in normal times. Not only it
is only through better coordination between
helps convey decisions in a more transparent
central banks and between monetary and
way, it also signals the present and future
fiscal authorities in the domestic sphere
policy stance of central banks. In fact,
that adverse consequences of spillovers
unconventional monetary policy measures
and spillbacks could be contained. The
undertaken by central banks during the
crisis period worked mainly through the fact remains that as most policy makers
confidence and signaling channels. The US (monetary and fiscal) have domestic
Federal Reserve’s statement on December 16, mandates, international cooperation may be
2008 provided a clear forward guidance for hard to engender if international outcomes
the markets. On the other hand, only a mere militate against domestic policy preferences.
hint of monetary policy normalisation by the 4
Mainly five emerging-market countries, viz., Brazil, India, Indonesia, South
US Fed (popularly known as taper tantrum) Africa, and Turkey (which were referred to as the ‘Fragile Five’)
Therefore, success of coordination will and non-banking sectors. We have been taking several
depend on deft calibration of policies by steps to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory
major stakeholders. frameworks in order to increase the resilience of the
banking system. New guidelines have been issued for
Issues in the Current Context
resolution of stressed assets, which will sustain the
Even after more than a decade of global financial improvements in credit culture.
crisis and six years after taper-tantrum, the global
In the non-banking sector, the Reserve Bank has
economy is still not on a stable growth path. Following
recently come out with draft guidelines for a robust
an upward swing in 2017, there has been growing
liquidity framework for the NBFCs. We are also giving
evidence that global growth and trade is weakening.
a fresh look at their regulatory and supervisory
Unsettled trade tensions and developments around
framework. It is our endeavour to have an optimal level
Brexit are imparting further downside risks to the
of regulation and supervision so that the NBFC sector
outlook. While signs of weakening world industrial
is financially resilient and robust. The Reserve Bank
production and trade volume were discernible in
will continue to monitor the activity and performance
early 2019, other business confidence indicators have
of this sector with a focus on major entities and their
also dampened in many Organisation for Economic
inter-linkages with other sectors. The Reserve Bank
Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
will not hesitate to take any required steps to maintain
Taking cognisance of these factors, projections of
financial stability.
world growth for 2019 have been revised down by
the IMF, World Bank and the OECD in their latest We are also taking a number of steps to improve
assessments. Likewise, global trade is projected to commercial viability of Urban Co-operative Banks
expand at a moderate pace in next two years in line (UCBs). These steps include proposed establishment
with the subdued investment outlook for many major of an Umbrella Organisation and a Centralised Fraud
economies. Registry for UCBs and governance reforms at the board
level. We are also encouraging voluntary merger and
While the global economy is still to recover to
consolidation in the sector to help reduce operating
the pre-crisis growth path, India has continued to
costs, diversify risks and economise on capital.
exhibit robust growth driven by consumption and
investment demand in the last three years. However, Interplay between Inflation and Growth Objectives
in more recent period, we have seen a loss of speed in At the end, let me highlight the role of the
the second half of 2018-19 as some drivers of growth, Reserve Bank in the context of the mandate under
notably investment and exports, slowed down. On the
the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934: ‘to regulate the
supply side, activity in agriculture and manufacturing
issue of Bank notes and the keeping of reserves with
moderated sharply. It is expected that the end of
a view to securing monetary stability in India and
political uncertainty associated with an election
generally to operate the currency and credit system of
season and continuation of economic reforms would
the country to its advantage’. This mandate has been
lead to a reversal of the current weaknesses in some of
interpreted over time as to maintain price stability,
the indicators in our economy.
financial stability and economic growth with the
To reinvigorate growth by improving investment relative emphasis between these objectives governed
climate, a healthy financial sector, inter alia, plays an by the prevailing macroeconomic conditions. This
important role. In this context, the Reserve Bank has role of the Reserve Bank has been restated as per the
accorded high policy attention to reform both banking amendment in the RBI Act in May 2016 according
to which ‘the primary objective of the monetary that though the focus of monetary policy is mainly on
policy is to maintain price stability while keeping in inflation and growth, the underlying theme has always
mind the objective of growth’. Therefore it has been been financial stability.
our endeavour in the Reserve Bank to ensure price Concluding Observations
stability under the flexible inflation targeting regime
While India emerged relatively unscathed
and simultaneously focus on growth when inflation is
from the global financial crisis, there should be no
under control.
room for complacency. As a member of the several
In a flexible inflation targeting framework, a multilateral institutions, India actively participated
delicate balance needs to be maintained between in post crisis reforms of the international regulatory
Inflation and growth objectives. The relative emphasis and supervisory framework under the aegis of the G20
on inflation and growth depends on prevailing and the Basel Committee. India remains committed to
macroeconomic scenario, inflation and growth outlook adoption of international standards and best practices
and signals emerging from incoming data. Post global in a phased manner, calibrated to our domestic
financial crisis, it has been recognised that price conditions, wherever necessary.
stability may not be sufficient for financial stability From the perspective of the Reserve Bank, we will
and therefore financial stability has emerged as continue to focus on effective communication and
another key consideration for monetary policy, though coordination with all stakeholders to achieve broader
jury is still out as to whether it should be added as an macroeconomic objectives of price stability, growth
explicit objective of monetary policy. The fact remains and financial stability.
Reserve Bank to effectively track the progress in I urge the banks/FSPs to utilise the potential of
redressal of complaints. CMS to the fullest.
With the launch of CMS, the processing of My heartiest congratulations to each and
complaints received in the offices of Ombudsman and everyone involved in developing and implementing
Consumer Education and Protection Cells (CEPCs) of the application.
the Reserve Bank has been digitalised.
Governor’s Inaugural Remarks- summarised the ethos of the discipline, and I quote:
“…the history of the word sankhyā shows the
Annual Statistics Day intimate connection which has existed for more than
Conference* 3000 years in the Indian mind between ‘adequate
knowledge’ and ‘number.’ As we interpret it, the
fundamental aim of statistics is to give determinate
Shaktikanta Das and adequate knowledge of reality with the help
of numbers and numerical analysis.” These words
would inspire our deliberations on the theme of
I am honoured to inaugurate this year’s
the Conference today, which is ‘Statistics for the
Statistics Day Conference, the thirteenth in the series
Future’. The shared understanding that statistics is
organised by the Reserve Bank to commemorate
a ‘key technology’ in dealing with real life problems
the contributions of Professor Prasanta Chandra
is resonating across the world. Aptly, the 50th session
Mahalanobis. While paying tribute to him, I would
of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC)
like to take this opportunity to review some of the
held in March 2019 had ‘Better Data Better Lives’ as
recent challenges in the field of statistics and in that
its leit motif.
context, to envision our future plans.
The Reserve Bank’s statistics and information
Professor Mahalanobis’s achievements in the
management system has evolved over several decades
field of statistics are pioneering and widely acclaimed.
in response to demands for national level statistics
In many ways, his contributions have pushed outwards
of the highest quality and their dissemination as
the frontiers of human understanding and endeavour.
a ‘public good’. Over the years, more and more
Very appropriately, therefore, he is regarded as
information is being compiled and released in the
the father of modern statistics in India. Professor
public domain, including those data that form inputs
Mahalanobis was also a great institution builder. He
in policy-making. With India’s growing integration
will always be remembered for founding the Indian
with the global economy and the sophistication and
Statistical Institute (ISI); for his path-breaking work
complexity of economic activity, information needs
on nationwide sample surveys; and for providing
have exploded. This has thrown up challenges to
the architecture of the second five year plan (FYP)
practitioners to exploit innovations in analytical tools
model of rapid industrialisation, among his many
so as to keep pace with the fast changing dynamic.
landmark contributions to nation building in those
For instance, in the aftermath of the global financial
early days of independence. Professor Mahalanobis
crisis, statistical systems across the central banks have
was the recipient of the prestigious award, the Padma
undergone a paradigm shift. The focus is increasingly
Vibhushan. He also received international recognition,
on monitoring of risks in the financial sector, global
including as the Honorary President of International
linkages, and sectoral accounts in terms of analysis
Statistical Institute and Fellow of the Royal Society of
of vulnerabilities, interconnectedness and spillovers.
London for Improving Natural Knowledge.
At the same time, information management and
Professor Mahalonobis was also the founder dissemination has become technologically more
editor of the Indian Journal of Statistics ‘Sankhya’. In advanced, with an emphasis on higher frequency,
the editorial of its first issue, Professor Mahalanobis granularity, better validation and integration into
multi-purpose and structured data production
* Shri Shaktikanta Das, Governor, Reserve Bank of India. Speech delivered
on June 28, 2019 processes. In the Reserve Bank too, we propose to
leverage our new age data warehouse to support a tail risks materialised and the world was not the
granular data access lab to facilitate research, and a same again. These lessons inform our modelling
sandbox environment for evaluating regulatory tools. of corporate financial risks on an ongoing basis. As
the American Statistician recommends, “Accept
Let me turn to some other modern-day
Uncertainty. Be Thoughtful, Open, and Modest”; in
challenges confronting professional statisticians, in
short, “ATOM.”
the Reserve Bank as also outside the Bank. Big data
is the new buzzword in the world of statistics, and it In my view, in an era marked by the widespread
has already started changing the way the world views usage of the internet and social media, there is no
itself. Corporations are making large investments to substitute for rigorous statistical testing for establishing
predict the behaviour of consumers by exploiting empirical regularities. In a deluge of data and results,
the advances made in the field of data analytics. what is vital is not just knowing which facts warrant
This information technology revolution has also importance, but also which are to be ignored, or even
created problems of plenty, underscoring the need strongly refuted. Deviations from stylised facts and
for rigorous processes of classification, aggregation common sense should be investigated, but backed
and analysis. Given the large amount of information, by robust analysis, peer reviews of the data used and
extracting ‘signals’ and ignoring ‘noise’ is vital in the the methods employed before deriving conclusions.
productive use of new age technologies for analytical So, the solution might not be less statistics, but
needs and policy decision support. Big data analytics actually more of them, but used in a manner that
are being increasingly employed to assess food they are supposed to be. In most countries today, the
inflation, to develop risk profiles and stress scenarios profession of statistics is required to meet increasing
for the corporate sector and to conduct sentiment analytical demands for decision support. The rising
analysis with artificial intelligence and machine demands on the profession, as pointed out recently
learning techniques. by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, speak for the
public’s expectations about and reliance on the quality
In recent times, there have been animated
of statistics, statistical methods and the statistician.
discussions on the precision of statistical methods.
In the Reserve Bank, we will continue to refine the
The doctrine – even tradition - of statistical significance
methodologies used for forecasting and assessment
in scientific research has come under some cloud for
of macroeconomic developments on an ongoing basis.
its veracity and the journal American Statistician
Research and analytics using cutting edge techniques
published a special edition on this issue earlier this
will be pursued and in particular, nowcasting of
year. Critics allege that these tests are susceptible
growth and inflation will be further strengthened.
to manipulation in order to make desired results
significant, and undesired results non-significant. I am glad to note that renowned statisticians like
Further, some important results may be discarded at Professor T.C.A. Anant, Professor T.J.Rao and Professor
the conception level itself just because they are highly Srikanth Iyer have accepted our invitation and agreed
unlikely. Similarly, an opportunity to cherry-pick to share their views on the theme of the Conference.
variables is available. In other words, correlations We look forward to Professor Anant’s thoughts
can conveniently be extended to establish spurious on the challenges for statisticians in the context
causality. In this context, do’s and don’t’s have been of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development
cited: ‘don’t say statistically significant’ is one of Goals (SDGs) as part of our commitment to the G20
them. Yet, as the global financial crisis demonstrated, process. The Reserve Bank has been conducting
several surveys to provide forward-looking inputs and Dr.Bornali Bhandari will discuss the research
for policy purposes. In this context, Professor Rao’s work done and the future research agenda with young
guidance will be extremely valuable; moreover, he researchers in the afternoon session. Their expertise
has had a long-standing relationship with the Bank would immensely help our young professionals in
in the Technical Advisory Committee on Surveys. We setting their own goals.
are also eager to listen to Professor Iyer on Random
I wish all participants the very best for today’s
Connection Models that help in reducing dimensions,
conference. I hope your deliberations will keep
compressing information and designing efficient
burning the flame of knowledge that illuminates
algorithms in the era of Big Data.
human endeavour.
I am also happy to learn that experts such as
Thank you!
Dr. Subrata Sarkar, Dr. D.V.S. Sastry, Shri D.K.Joshi
Development of Viable Capital 1.3 The CGFS Report identified the drivers of capital
market development and categorised them into two
Markets – The Indian Experience* types:
i. drivers which create an enabling
Viral V. Acharya environment for financial development, and
ii. drivers which are more capital market
specific.
1. Introduction
1.4 Drivers which create an enabling environment as
1.1 Capital markets play a crucial role in the economic
identified in the CGFS Report include:
development of a country. They provide financial
resources required for the long-term sustainable • macroeconomic stability,
development of the economy. Development of viable • broad respect for market autonomy,
capital markets is therefore considered an important
• fair and efficient legal and judicial systems,
element in the macro-financial policy toolkit,
and
including for objectives such as financial stability and
the transmission of monetary policy. • an efficient regulatory regime that creates
conditions favourable for financial contracts.
1.2 The Committee on Global Financial System
(CGFS), which meets at the Bank for International 1.5 Drivers which are capital market specific as
Settlements (BIS), constituted a Working Group identified in the CGFS Report include:
in 2018-19 to examine global trends in capital • easy access to high-quality material
market development, identify various factors (legal, information,
institutional, structural and conjunctural) that foster
• diversity in the investor base,
the development of robust capital markets, and consider
the role of policy including prudential measures. The • efficient market ecosystem for trading and
Working Group, co-chaired by the People’s Bank of robust market infrastructures,
China (PBOC, Dr. Li Bo) and the Reserve Bank of India • openness towards international investors
(RBI, Dr. Viral V. Acharya), focussed on issues primarily while maintaining macro-economic stability,
related to the development of markets in bond and and
equity securities1. While these issues are arguably
• markets for hedging and funding securities.
of greater relevance to emerging market economies,
they were found to be of significant interest even for 1.6 The CGFS Report made six broad policy
advanced economies. recommendations:
i. promoting greater market autonomy;
*
Dr Viral V. Acharya, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at Indian
School of Business, Hyderabad on June 29, 2019. These remarks collectively ii. strengthening legal and judicial systems for
summarise the presentations made earlier at the RBI symposium on
Establishing Viable Capital Markets, 29 May 2019; the Institute for Indian investor protection;
Economic Studies (IIES), Tokyo, Japan, 10 June 2019; the meeting with Foreign
Portfolio Investors, Tokyo, Japan, 11 June 2019; the National University of iii.
enhancing regulatory independence and
Singapore (NUS) Asian Leaders in Financial Institutions (ALFI) Programme,
Bengaluru, 20 June 2019, and Fireside Chat at the Indian School of Business,
effectiveness;
Hyderabad, 29 June 2019.
1 iv. increasing the depth and diversity of the
The Report was delivered to the CGFS at the BIS meeting on 23 January
2019 and is available at https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs62.pdf domestic institutional investor base;
2
‘When Issued’, a short form of ‹when, as and if issued ‹, indicates a conditional transaction in a security authorized for issuance but not as yet actually
issued. All ‘when issued’ transactions are on an ‘if’ basis, to be settled if and when the actual security is issued. Such trading facilitates the distribution
process for Government securities by stretching the actual distribution period for each issue and allowing the market more time to absorb large issues
without disruption.
Payment (DvP) mechanism on T+1 basis. institutions like mutual funds, pension funds and
Guaranteed settlement implies there is no insurance funds as well as foreign portfolio investors
risk to investors from each other of delivery (FPIs) has helped in developing the corporate bond
failures. market. Tri-party repo (‘sale and repurchase’) in
(v) Finally, enabling of short-selling facilitates a corporate bonds has been introduced by the exchanges
two-way interest adding to activity and price recently with a view to encourage trading interest.
Implementation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy
discovery in the market.
Code (IBC) starting December 2016 is expected to go
2.5 Growth and liquidity of the corporate bond a long way in improving participation in the corporate
market: The corporate bond market has grown over bond market by strengthening the protection of
the years to a size of US$ 447 billion of outstanding creditor rights, in a market presently characterised
stock as at the end of March 2019, clocking an by one of the lowest recovery rates (25 per cent) in
annualised growth rate of 13.5 per cent during the the world (Chart 5). With greater confidence in time-
last four years. Issuances are predominantly through bound and efficient resolutions under the IBC, foreign
private placement and dominated by high credit investors are likely to explore investment in sub-
issuers. In 2018-19, 79 per cent of the issuances were by investment grade and distressed corporate assets.
entities rated ‘A’ or higher. Secondary market trading
2.7 Investor Base: There has been a conscious and
has also picked up in the recent past, with trading
continuous effort by the Reserve Bank to expand the
volumes rising from US$ 170 billion in financial year
investor base and thereby liquidity of the markets it
(FY) 2014-15 to US$ 267 billion in 2018-19. Trading
regulates, while preserving financial stability. The
is entirely OTC with trades settled bilaterally and
investor base for G-Secs, for instance, has expanded
reported to stock exchanges.
over the past decade in terms of an increase in the
2.6 Recent developments in the corporate bond share of holdings by insurance companies and
market: Consistent investment interest by domestic corporates and a corresponding decrease in the share
of holding by commercial banks (Chart 6). In parallel, is the existence of funding and securities lending
calibrated access for global investors through the FPI markets as well as derivative markets for risk transfer.
route is helping broaden the investor base, while also Repo funding in Indian G-Secs is fairly deep with
bringing in diversity of trading views and strategies. average daily volume of about US$ 20 billion (Chart 7).
2.8 Funding and Derivatives Markets: A necessary In case of interest rate derivatives, there is reasonable
condition for the development of capital markets liquidity in Interest Rate Futures (IRF) and Overnight
4
Triparty repo in G-Secs went live on November 05, 2018. In tri-party repo, a third party acts as a central counterparty between the two originating parties
of a repo transaction. Currently, the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) acts as the ‘triparty agent’ for the G-Secs, while the Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) operate as triparty agents for corporate bonds.
iii.
Minimising interference in the market
process by eschewing ad-hoc ‘approvals’;
and,
iv. Attempting to achieve comprehensive
market regulations by addressing gaps,
in particular, by issuing market abuse
regulations and benchmark regulations, as
well as regulating trading platforms.
b. Development of financial market institutions
and infrastructure
A well-developed and reliable infrastructure
is a prerequisite for safe and efficient functioning
of financial markets. Acknowledging this
principle, the Reserve Bank has taken several
steps to put in place an effective infrastructure in
the markets it regulates, the salient steps being: the minimum percentage of Net Demand
i. Introduction of an anonymous trading and Time Liabilities (NDTL) to be held in
platform for G-Sec called the Negotiated G-Secs and SDLs by banks in a calibrated way
Dealing System-Order Matching (NDS-OM); (Chart 10) from close to 40 per cent in 1990 to
ii. Introduction of Legal Entity Identifier code below 20 per cent at present. This important
(LEI) for OTC derivatives markets as well as relaxation has resulted in a greater flexibility
non-derivatives markets; for banks in their investment decisions and
added to the diversity of investor base in
iii.
Development of a foreign exchange trading
G-Secs and SDLs (Chart 6) – which, in turn,
platform (Fx-Retail) aimed at bringing down
have aided efficient pricing of these bonds.
transactions costs for retail users (August
2019); and, ii. The Reserve Bank has been calibrating access
for Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in debt
iv. Constituting an independent financial
markets to provide them greater latitude
benchmark administrator, viz., the Financial
in managing their portfolios in terms of
Benchmarks of India Private Limited (FBIL).
increased FPI investment limits (Charts
c. Macro-prudential management of investment 11 and 12) as well as expanded eligibility of
restrictions for domestic and foreign investors instruments and tenor for FPI investments.
It has been a constant endeavour of the iii. Recently, the Reserve Bank has introduced
Reserve Bank to rationalise, and wherever the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) scheme
consistent with macro-prudential objectives, to to relax the macro-prudential restrictions for
relax restrictions in the form of investment limits FPIs that are willing to retain a significant
imposed on the market participants: portion of their investments in the country
i. The Reserve Bank has reduced the Statutory for a minimum retention period (presently
Liquidity Requirement (SLR) stipulation on three years).
3.1.3
Strengthening the legal and regulatory 3.2.1 Disclosure regime
framework for investor protection
As per the cross-country survey findings of the
One of the most critical building blocks of market CGFS Report, proper and timely disclosure by the
infrastructure is a proper legal framework which issuers in corporate bond market is a prerequisite
ensures investor protection by acting as a deterrent for gaining investors’ confidence in this market.
to market abuse and malpractices. In India, the Public Conversely, lack of adequate disclosures raises the
Debt Act (1944), the Securities Contract Regulation financing costs of corporates, especially sub-investment
Act (1956) and the Government Securities Act (2006) grade ones, and keeps the capital markets small.
govern the formalisation of issuance and transfer of Recognising this, regulators in India have emphasised
securities. In parallel, the Reserve Bank of India Act and mandated high quality and timely disclosures by
(1934) confers powers on the Reserve Bank to regulate issuers. However, a few instances of recent defaults in
money, derivatives, repo and government securities commercial paper and corporate bond markets have
markets. With the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code raised concerns about the quality of disclosures, even
(IBC) (December 2016), the legal framework for for investment-grade firms. These concerns are worthy
financial regulation is also moving closer to being of careful scrutiny and assessment relative to the best
comprehensive and effective in the context of non- international practices to help fine-tune standards for
financial corporate borrowers. However, the lack of the timely disclosure of default-relevant information
resolution framework for non-bank financial entities by corporates.
remains a crucial gap that deserves prompt attention
3.2.2 Deepening the domestic institutional base
of the authorities.
Expanding the investor base leads to increasing
3.2 Capital market specific drivers
diversity in the market (see section 2.7). Efforts in this
Let me now turn to some of the other important direction need to be sustained, with a particular focus
drivers of market development in India and also on the domestic institutional investor base. Improving
highlight some critical areas for improvement. pension and insurance coverage for households can be
a priority as it not only leads to social welfare outcomes, for indirect exposure, residents can hedge
but also leads to a stronger and more stable investor overseas the price risk on industrial metals
base for capital markets. Better financialisation only. Further, revised directions treat risks
of household savings could be a catalyst for retail acquired from domestic and cross-border
participation in markets, in turn providing a boost to transactions at par.
collective investment vehicles such as mutual funds To manage the global spillover risks arising from
and alternative investment funds (AIFs). such reforms, prudential limits have been in place
3.2.3 Bi-directional opening of markets to alongside most of these reforms to ensure consistency
international participation with the overall state of capital account liberalisation
for India and anchor macro-prudential risks at
One of the key drivers of market development
manageable levels.
recognised in the CGFS Report is opening up of the
market to foreign participants although it entails 3.2.4 Developing complementary markets
managing global spillover risks. The Reserve Bank Deep and liquid complementary markets like
has taken calibrated steps in opening up its regulated repo and derivatives play a crucial role in the growth
markets to foreign participants as discussed earlier of the cash markets as they help investors in funding
and also allowed domestic players to participate in and hedging. Over the past few years, the Reserve
overseas markets: Bank has taken measures to help develop repo markets
i. In consultation with the government, the for both Government securities and corporate bonds.
Reserve Bank has decided to permit offshore Introduction of tri-party repo (August 2017) has been
trading and settlement of G-Secs through a success for the G-Sec market; however, tri-party
International Central Securities Depositories repo is yet to pick up in the corporate bond market.
(ICSD) for non-residents who do not want Similarly, securities lending (‘market repo’) works well
to undergo the domestic FPI registration for G-Secs although wider participation (especially by
procedure. large holders of G-Secs like mutual funds, insurance
companies and pension funds) is required to avoid
ii. The recently issued draft of regulations for
occasional episodes of excessive volatility in borrowing
hedging currency risk embodies many of
costs. All these regulatory measures have resulted in a
the drivers identified by the CGFS report
consistent growth in liquidity in the repo markets.
– product innovation, opening up markets
to non-residents and simplified hedging To boost derivatives markets, efforts are required
guidelines which offer greater flexibility to in encouraging better risk management by domestic
users. institutions, especially banks. With the untapped
interest rate derivatives market set for a pickup in the
iii.
Similarly, in March 2018, the Reserve Bank
risk management activity of banks and non-banks, the
freed up overseas hedging by residents
role of complementary markets will strengthen in the
of commodity price risk and freight risk
years to follow.
overseas. Residents were permitted to hedge
both direct and indirect commodity risk 3.3 Other recent initiatives
through specified instruments. For direct Let me conclude by enumerating four of the
exposure, all price risk on all commodities is important initiatives underway to develop Indian
now permitted to be hedged overseas, while capital markets further:
a. Task Force on Offshore Rupee Markets the standardisation of loan information, independent
validation and data access. The Report of the Task
The Reserve Bank constituted a Task Force in
Force is due by the end of August 2019.
February 2019 to examine in depth issues relating to the
offshore Rupee markets and recommend appropriate d. Committee on the Development of Housing
policy measures to align incentives for non-residents Finance Securitisation Market
to gradually move to the domestic market for their The Reserve Bank constituted this committee
hedging requirements and also to ensure the stability to assess the state of housing finance securitisation
of the external value of the Rupee. The Report of the markets in India; study the best international practices
Task Force is due by mid-July 2019. as well as lessons learnt from the global financial
b. Internal Working Group on Market Timings crisis; and propose measures to further develop these
markets in India by identifying critical steps required
The Reserve Bank has set up an Internal Working
such as, inter alia, definition of conforming mortgages,
Group on Market Timings which will comprehensively
mortgage documentation standards, digital registry
review the timings of various markets that are under
for ease of due diligence and verification by investors,
the purview of the Reserve Bank, and will assess the avenues for trading in securitised assets, etc. The
necessary payment and settlement infrastructure that Report of the Committee is due by the end of August
can support co-ordinated timings across these markets. 2019.
The Working Group’s Report, after submission, will be
In summary, it should be clear that while Indian
released for public feedback.
capital markets have evolved steadily to a stage of
c. Task Force on the Development of Secondary long-run viability, the potential for developing and
Market for Corporate Loans strengthening them further is limitless…
The Reserve Bank has constituted a Task Force on ‘Let us, then, be up and doing,
the Development of Secondary Market for Corporate With a heart for any fate;
Loans. It will suggest required policies for facilitating Still achieving, still pursuing,
the development of a secondary market in corporate Learn to labour and to wait.’
loans, including loan transaction platform for – A Psalm of Life by
stressed assets, creation of a loan contract registry, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
its ownership structure and related protocols such as (1807–1882)
High birth and death Decline in death Birth rate starts falling Birth rate declines Death rates exceed
rates leading to rate and no change with death rates tending to equal the birth rates and the
low growth rate of in birth rate leads to declining rapidly. death rate. Stationary population growth
population population explosion Population grows at a growth rate of declines
diminishing rate population
group of 0-14 years. Slowly, with improved education, There are several channels through which
fertility rates decline and a country experiences an demographic changes can impact macroeconomic
expansion in the group of economically active adult outcomes. First, the age profile and the growth rate of
population in the third stage. In the next stage, the the population directly impact the availability of labour
average longevity of the population gradually rises – a key factor input in the production process. As a
and the population stabilises with the birth rate and country moves from the second stage of demographic
death rate tending to equalise. Decline in population evolution to the third and fourth stages, there emerges
in response to death rates exceeding birth rates marks a demographic dividend with working-age population
the final stage of demographic transition (Chart 1). significantly exceeding the number of dependents. In
addition, lower fertility rates and increasing access
Theoretical research on the macroeconomic
to higher education enable more and more women
ramifications of demographic changes dates back
to enter the workforce, leading to a further increase
to the 18th century when Malthus (1798) suggested
in labour supply, higher economic growth and higher
that economic growth would fail to match up to
tax collections for the Government. Age profile could
the sustained rapid increase in world population,
also influence tax rates and the incentive to work. For
leading eventually to scarcity of resources and a
instance, higher working age population may improve
doomsday scenario. However, as technological
buoyancy in tax collections and facilitate the lowering
innovations enabled higher agricultural production
of tax rates which, in turn, could boost the incentive
and robust economic growth, there emerged a group
to work.
of demographic optimists who advocated the idea that
population growth could be an asset for an economy. Second, Life-cycle hypothesis suggests that the
According to them, countries with larger population age structure of the population operates through
and the capacity to take advantage of economies of the saving-investment channel. People start as net
scale would benefit from bigger domestic markets and borrowers during their youth, become net savers
division of labour, both boosting economic growth during working years, and eventually turn dis-savers
(Harrod, 1939; Solow, 1956). after retirement. Thus, an increase in the working age
population can increase the level of aggregate savings and magnitude of the impact vary across countries
in an economy, expanding the availability of domestic and over time (Han, 2019; Juselius and Takats, 2018;
financing for growth. The neoclassical theory predicts Bobeica and Sun, 2017).
that economic growth accelerates from the second
Population aging may influence the current
stage of demographic transition as population sensitive
account balance through the savings-investment
investment (such as construction and housing) picks
channel (Higgins, 1998). A relatively faster ageing
up pace to provide employment and housing to the
country will experience an improvement in its
new entrants into the labour force (Kuznets, 1958).
current account balance due to a decline in domestic
Third, demographic changes can influence growth investment demand that is greater than the reduction
(and inflation) through the aggregate demand channel. in national saving. Thus, population aging may lead
The growth of a young population in the second stage to international capital flows from countries with
and economically active population in the third stage an aging population to countries with a relatively
of demographic transition leads to an increase in younger population such as newly industrialised and
aggregate demand. The secular stagnation hypothesis developing countries (Fougère and Mérette, 1999).
(Hansen, 1938) also relies on the demand channel to
In the Indian context, both the level and growth
explain periods of low inflation and low growth in the
rate of the working age population have large impact
late fourth and fifth stages of demographic transition
on economic growth (Aiyar and Mody, 2011). State-
when population growth declines.
level analysis shows that the BIMARU2 states are likely
Fourth, demographic factors have important to experience an increase in the share of working age
implications for Government finances. Life cycle population in the years to come (Utsav Kumar, 2010).
models predict that higher tax revenues and increased Thus, India’s demographic dividend critically depends
public saving help improve the fiscal position during on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge
the middle stages of demographic changes. On the in working-age population. The first demographic
other hand, a larger share of elderly dependent dividend in the form of higher availability of working
individuals in the later stages necessitates higher public age population could accrue during 1980-2035, while
expenditure on healthcare services and pensions, the second demographic dividend in the form of higher
leading to worsening of Government finances. savings to support retirement could gain prominence
There has been a proliferation of empirical from 2035. The demographic dividend could matter
examination of the macroeconomic impact of till 2070 (Ladusingh and Narayana, 2011).
demographic changes (Annex Table 1). A general
III. Stylised Facts
consensus converges towards the finding that the
dependency ratio has a negative impact on growth Annual data from the World Bank (World
in GDP/ per capita income (Joe and Agrawal, 2015; Development Indicators) suggest that India is currently
Yoon, et al., 2014 and Sundman, 2011). Countries with in the third stage of demographic transition with
higher human capital tend to have lower fertility rates a rapidly declining crude birth rate (CBR) and crude
and higher real per capita GDP growth (Barro, 1991; death rate (CDR), though the CBR remains higher than
Lee, et al., 2016; Mohan, 2004). the CDR (Chart 2.a). During the period from 1975 to
2017, the fertility rate fell from 5.2 to 2.3 births per
The age structure plays a significant role in
2
determining the inflation rate, though the direction BIMARU indicates Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
women. Consequently, the population growth rate 1975-2017 – the share of the working age (15-64 age
slowed from 2.3 per cent in 1975 to 1.1 per cent in group) in the total population increased from 56.5
2017 (Chart 2.b) and is expected to slow further to 0.03 per cent to 66.2 per cent; the share of the young (0-14
per cent by 2055-60 after which it may turn negative year old) recorded a decline from 40 per cent to 27.8
(UN, 20193). per cent; and the share of the elderly (65 years and
The age structure of India’s population has above) showed a marginal increase from 3.5 percent to
undergone significant changes over the period 6 percent (Chart 3a).
3
The United Nation’s 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects.
This changing age structure can be best incremental increase in India’s labour force each
represented by the age dependency ratio - the ratio year will continue to be significant several years
of total dependent population (0-14 years and 65+ ahead (Chart 5), offering the opportunity to reap the
years old) to total working age population: a lower value demographic dividend for next few decades.
of the ratio implies a more productive population.
Labour force participation rate (LFPR) in India
India’s age dependency ratio has been declining and
is declining during the last decade and half despite
is likely to decline till 2025 after which it may remain
a significant and growing share of working age
stagnant till 2040 and increase thereafter (UN, 2019)
(Chart 3b). At a disaggregated level, the old dependency
ratio (ratio of old dependent population to working
age population) is increasing gradually, while the
young dependency ratio (ratio of young dependent
population to working age population) is declining
rapidly. Between 1975 and 2017, the old dependency
ratio increased from 6.2 per cent to 9.0 per cent and
the young dependency ratio fell from 71.0 per cent to
41.9 per cent.
A comparison of India’s age dependency ratio
with other countries, viz., China, USA and Japan,
shows that India stands at an advantageous position-
age dependency ratios for those countries have started
rising while it continues to fall for India (Chart 4).
The population pyramid for India also shows
a bulge in the 10-24 age cohorts, implying that the
population (Chart 6.a). Female LFPR in India is one of having the highest unemployment rates all through
the lowest in the world (ILO, 20134).
There is also a the period from 1993-1994 to 2017-18 (Chart 6c and
sharp fall in the youth LFPR since 2004-05 (Chart 6.b). 6d). Comparatively, the unemployment rates for
The declining LFPR could be attributed to a number
males and females with secondary education are
of factors, viz., increasing enrollment in education;
significantly lower, implying that a large proportion
rising household incomes; and lack of adequate
productive employment opportunities. For both of India’s labour force is engaged in informal and
male and female groups, the unemployment rates unskilled/semi-skilled work with possible dearth of
are higher for the more educated, with graduates jobs for skilled labour.
4
International Labour Organization (ILO)’s Global Employment Trend Report, 2013.
IV. Empirical Analysis are used as instruments for the GMM. The robustness
of the model is examined through Sargan-Hansen J
This section empirically examines how changes
in the size and composition of India’s population test, which requires acceptance of the null - that over-
influence macroeconomic outcomes. The study covers identifying restrictions are valid- to establish validity
the time-period 1975-2017 for which consistent data of the instruments.
for the variables under consideration are available. The results indicate that higher population
The size of the population and change therein are growth in India is not associated with higher real GDP
captured through the population growth rate, while growth (Table 1). This is because higher population
changes in the composition of the population are growth in India had resulted from higher fertility
captured through age dependency ratio, the share and birth rates. While higher birth rates increase the
of working age population in total population and number of young in the population, a higher fertility
the growth in aging population (i.e., population rate inhibits women joining the workforce including
above 65 years of age). The macroeconomic variables through higher education and both adversely impact
considered for the analysis are real GDP growth, effective labour supply. Rather than population
per capita income growth, inflation, fiscal balance growth, it is the growth of working age population as
and the external current account balance. Data on well as labour force participation rates that matter for
demographic variables are sourced from the World economic growth.
Development Indicator database of the World Bank,
As expected, the age dependency ratio in India has
while data on macroeconomic variables are obtained
an inverse relationship whereas the share of working
from the Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy
age population has a positive relationship with real
published by the Reserve Bank of India.
GDP growth. This implies that if the dependency ratio
In view of potential endogeneity problems, the
generalised method of moments (GMM) methodology Table 1: Impact of Demographic Changes on
has been used for estimating the following model: Real GDP Growth
Y t = α + β1 Yt-1 + β2 X t + ε t .......................... (1) Explanatory Variables Dependent Variable: Real GDP Growth
The efficiency of the GMM estimator depends Constant 11.85*** 16.50*** 7.84**
on the validity of instruments. In this case, lagged Time Trend 0.07** 0.14***
values of the dependent and explanatory variables Adjusted R-squared 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15
5
Sargan-Hansen J-test (0.70) (0.90) (0.89) (0.50)
Two of the demographic variables, viz., the share of working age population
and growth in aging population were found to be only trend stationary. For Note: 1. ***, ** and * denote significant at 1 %, 5 % and 10% level,
de-trending, time trend has been introduced as an independent variable in respectively.
the relevant equations. 2. Figures in the parentheses represent respective p-values.
Time Trend 0.13*** 0.14*** Adjusted R-squared 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.01
Adjusted R-squared 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 Sargan-Hansen J-test (0.72) (0.68) (0.74) (0.21)
Note: 1. ***, ** and * denote significant at 1 %, 5 % and 10% level,
Sargan-Hansen J-test (0.71) (0.91) (0.94) (0.27)
respectively.
Note: 1. ***, ** and * denote significant at 1 %, 5 % and 10% level, 2. Figures in the parentheses represent respective p-values.
respectively.
2. Figures in the parentheses represent respective p-values.
increases, GDP growth suffers. On the other hand, the age dependency ratio impact CPI inflation positively,
increased share of working age population increases presumably by increasing aggregate demand relative
labour supply and thus results in higher production to supply. The impact of the working age population
and real GDP growth6. The impact of growth in elderly on inflation was not found to be statistically
population on GDP turned out to be negative though significant. The negative sign of the coefficient for the
growth of elderly population signifies that an increase
statistically insignificant.
in aging population could be deflationary due to lower
The impact of demographic variables on per capita aggregate demand even if this stage involves dis-saving
income growth is largely similar to that for overall (Table 3).
real GDP growth. A higher age dependency ratio has
As per life cycle hypothesis, a higher share of
an adverse impact on per capita income, whereas an
working age population should generate greater
increased share of the working age population leads to revenues for the government through tax collections
an increase in per capita income (Table 2). and thus improve government finances. Aging
There is very limited research on the impact of population, on the other hand will require greater
population dynamics on inflation. The estimation spending on pensions and healthcare thus, worsening
government finances.
results indicate that higher population growth and
As expected, population growth tends to increase
6
A similar analysis was carried out with the share of labour force in total the fiscal deficit (Table 4). The coefficients of other
population as the explanatory variable for the period 1990-2017 as the data
on labour force is not available prior to 1990. The GMM results reveal that demographic variables, however, turned out to be
an increase in the labour force impacts real GDP and per capita income statistically insignificant. Moreover, growth in the
growth positively. The impact of labour force on the other macroeconomic
variables, however, was not statistically significant. elderly population does not increase fiscal deficit,
GFD-GDP (-1) 0.76*** 0.67*** 0.60*** 0.56*** CAD-GDP (-1) 0.73*** 0.70*** 0.75*** 0.63***
Constant 0.48 1.90 29.83 6.26* Constant 0.45 0.70 -7.36 3.30*
Adjusted R-squared 0.38 0.47 0.49 0.31 Adjusted R-squared 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.63
Sargan-Hansen J-test (0.20) (0.66) (0.72) (0.17) Sargan-Hansen J-test (0.75) (0.34) (0.39) (0.32)
Note: 1. ***, ** and * denote significant at 1 %, 5 % and 10% level, Note: 1. ***, ** and * denote significant at 1 %, 5 % and 10% level,
respectively. respectively.
2. Figures in the parentheses represent respective p-values. 2. Figures in the parentheses represent respective p-values.
which is counter-intuitive but could be due to not so other hand, contributes to higher economic growth.
developed social security systems in India. An aging population is deflationary in nature though
improves the current account balance.
Population ageing may influence the external
current account balance through the saving-investment India is currently on the cusp of a demographic
channel (Higgins, 1998; Fougère and Mérette, 1999). transition. Population trends suggest that the age
The results reveal that population growth, age dependency ratio is expected to decline till 2025 and
dependency ratio and working age population do not remain almost stagnant upto 2040. Thus, this is the
have any significant impact on the current account golden age for India when the demographic dividend
balance in India. The rise in elderly population, could be reaped through higher growth. However,
however, tends to reduce the current account deficit in there is a dark side - despite an increase in the share
India, may be due to a decline in domestic investment of working age population in total population, the
demand exceeding the reduction in domestic savings labour force participation rate in India has been
(Table 5). declining. The trend is particularly predominant
among youth aged 15-29 in the rural areas and among
V. Conclusions
the female population. In order to harvest favourable
An examination of the influence of demographic demographics, it is critical to empower the labour
changes on macroeconomic outcomes in India reveals force with skills and gainful employment. India needs
that population growth and age dependency ratio have to pay special attention to skilling and reskilling its
inverse relation with the growth in real GDP and per workforce, keeping in view the changing nature of
capita income, and positive relation with inflation. today’s job profile. There are serious gaps between
Increase in the share of working age population, on the what the skill development institutions currently do
and what the industry requires. Improving education International Labour Organisation (ILO) (2013), ‘Global
and health infrastructure, in terms of both quality and Employment Trend Report, 2013’ , Available at https://
access and timely action in a co-ordinated manner www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---
by the Government, private sector and researchers dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_202326.
is necessary to harness the window of opportunity pdf
provided by a favourable demography.
International Monetary Fund, ‘World Economic
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Sundman (2011) 1999-2009 How demographic Demographic variables, viz., life expectancy and total
transition impacts dependency ratio have a negative impact on GDP per
economic growth capita as they contribute to much lower labour force.
Demographic transition has hit Japan the hardest.
Joe, Dash and 1970-2013 Impact of changing In case of China, in the long run, per capita GDP is
Agrawal (2015) population age structure on influenced by both saving to GDP ratio and dependency
economic growth in China ratio. However, in case of India, only the dependency
and India ratio shows a significantly negative long run association
with per capita GDP.
Bloom, Canning 1965-1990 The relationship between East Asia benefited from a “virtuous spiral” of income
and Malaney demographic change and growth and fertility decline, while South Asia remained
(1998) economic growth in Asia caught in a low- level population-income trap.
during 1965-90
Brander and 1960 -1985 Effects of population High birth rate has a negative impact on economic
Dowrick (1994) growth and fertility on growth through investment effects in terms of “capital
economic growth dilution”. Birth rate declines have strong medium-term
positive impact on per capita income through labour
supply or “dependency “ effects.
Barro (1991) 1960-1985 Relationship between The growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively
human capital and per related to initial human capital and negatively related
capita GDP to the initial level of real per capita GDP.
1960–2013 Impact of demographic Size of population and ageing, as captured by the share
Jong-Won Yoon, changes on growth of real of 65 and above, influence real GDP growth in the
Jinill Kim, and GDP per capita; current negative way. Population growth influences current
Jungjin Lee (2014) account balance; savings; account, savings, and investment negatively, though
investment; Government insignificantly while its impact on budget balance is
budget balance; and positive and significant. The negative impact of the
inflation rate using a panel elderly share is significant for savings, investment,
dataset covering 30 OECD inflation and budget balance.
economies
Han (2019) 1991-2016 Impact of demographic An increase in the youth population is inflationary, while
changes on inflation in an increase in the aging population is disinflationary. By
Hong Kong, Singapore and affecting inflation expectations, demography directly
Mainland China impacts inflation, or indirectly through the interest rate
channel. Its impact through the output gap or the wage
channel is ignorable.
Juselius and 1870-2016 Impact of age structure on Age structure plays a significant role in explaining
Takats (2018) inflation inflation taking into account different policy regimes
during the period.
Bobeica, Lis, Nickel 1975-2016 Relationship between There is a positive long-run relationship between
and Sun (2017) demographic change and inflation and the increase in working-age population as
Inflation a share in total population in euro area as well as US
and Germany.
Lee, Kim and Park 1995-2050 Impact of demographic Population age structure can have significant effect
(2016) shifts on the fiscal health of on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both
the Government Government revenues and expenditures. Asia’s
population aging (Japan, China, and Republic of Korea)
will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability.
Rakesh Mohan 1950-2050 Potential fiscal challenges Asian countries have the advantage of seeing what
(2004) of population ageing in Asia is happening in the West and can avoid the follies of
excessive social welfare states. These countries need
to develop funded health and pension schemes while
consciously delaying the shift from private welfare
provision to public welfare provision.
Matthew Higgins 1950 - 1989 Relationship between Increase in both the youth and old-age dependency ratio
(1998) age distribution, national is associated with lower saving rates. The estimated
savings and the current demographic effect on the current account balance
account balance exceeds six per cent of GDP over the last three decades
for several countries.
Maxime Fougère 1954-2082 Possible effects of Population ageing may have an important impact on
and Marcel population ageing on the current account balances, depending on the extent
Mérette (1999) current account of six OECD and the evolution of ageing in one country relative
countries by extending the to another. A relatively faster ageing country will
Hviding and Mérette (1998) experience an improvement in its current account
computable overlapping- balance due to a decline in domestic investment
generation (OLG) models to demand that is greater than the reduction in national
a small economy framework savings. Population ageing may lead to international
capital flows from countries with an ageing population
to countries with a relatively younger population, such
as newly industrialised and developing countries.
Shekhar Aiyar 1961-2001 Size and circumstances of The level and the growth rate of the working age ratio
and Ashoka Mody the potential gains from have both exercised a large impact on India’s economic
(2011) demographic dividend in growth. This result is robust after accounting for
India using variation in inter-state migration, endogeneity concerns, and the
the age structure of the introduction of a range of control variables.
population across Indian
states
Utsav Kumar 1971-2001 Role of changing age Using state-level data from India, the paper shows that
(2010) structure of population in the pace of demographic transition varies across states,
economic growth, while and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated
controlling for state- over the period 2011-2026. The BIMARU states are likely
specific variables like to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-
overall physical and social age population in total population. Whether India’s
infrastructure level demographic dividend will be a boon or bane critically
depends on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit
the bulge in the working-age population.
Ladusingh and 2005-2070 Quantification of The paper quantifies the positive macro-economic
Narayana (2011) demographic dividends implication of the age structure transition in India-
for India using the under both first and second demographic dividends.
National Transfer Accounts The first demographic dividend (due to higher working
Framework age population) predominates from 1980-2035 while
the second demographic dividend (due to higher saving
to support longer retirement) gains prominence from
2035. The total dividend for India could remain stable
until 2070.
Financial Stocks and Flows of the rest of the world (RoW) (Exhibit 1). These accounts
also cover financial instruments for sectoral transfers,
the Indian Economy from sources to uses of funds on from-whom-to-whom
2011-12 to 2017-18* (FWTW) basis, which include currency, deposits, debt
securities, loans and borrowings, equity, investment
funds (such as mutual funds), insurance, pension and
Shifts in the sectoral pattern and volume of financial
provident funds, monetary gold and other accounts
transactions in the Indian economy were evident during
(including trade debt).
the period 2011-12 to 2017-18. Reflecting the process
of financial development, the size of the RBI’s financial For the first time in this article, flow of funds
balance sheet shrank over the period. The balance sheet of have been augmented with sector-wise outstanding
other depository corporations (ODCs) sector has been in a positions in addition to the standard flow aspect of
contraction mode since 2013-14, reflecting the shift in the financial accounts, i.e., acquisition of financial assets
preferences away from deposits towards other competing and liabilities2. The end year of the period of study,
financial instruments. During the period, net borrowings i.e., 2017-18 is determined by the fact that data for
of non-financial corporations, both public and private,
that year pertaining to private non-financial corporate
declined, reflecting the recourse to internal saving to
sector became available only in May 2019 owing
finance investment. The household sector which remains
to transition of reporting standards for companies
the major supplier of funds, has been undergoing a major
from the Indian Generally Accepted Accounting
behavioural shift. Currency and deposits - historically
Principles (I-GAAP) to Indian Accounting Standard
the most preferred financial instruments, declined in
significance giving way to equity, mutual funds, insurance (Ind-AS)3.
and provident funds during the period. Exhibit I: Sectoral Classification of Financial
Stocks and Flows
Introduction
Central Bank
The Reserve Bank of India compiles the flow of
funds (FoF) accounts of the Indian economy broadly in Financial Other Depository
Corporations Corporations
accordance with the System of National Accounts (SNA,
Other Financial
2008). The institutional sectors that are covered in this Corporations
India has endorsed the second phase of the The rest of the article is organised into seven
G20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI-2) launched in 2015, sections. Section II sets out a brief account of the
which relates to improved coverage, timeliness, and sectoral financial resource gaps. Section III presents
periodicity of sectoral accounts . Accordingly, the
4
sector-wise financial trends. A brief discussion on
Committee on Financial Sector Statistics (CFSS) 5
instrument-wise financial flows is contained in
recommended (i) release of higher frequency data Section IV. Select indicators of financial development
- quarterly as well as annual with a reduced lag of 9 are analysed in Section V. Applications of financial
months from the current lag of more than 15 months; accounts and a network analysis of financial flows
(ii) coverage of new variables; and (iii) coverage of new is presented in Section VI. Section VII concludes the
aspects such as, flows versus stocks and transactions article with some policy perspectives.
versus valuation.
II. Sectoral Financial Resource Gap
This article marks an important step towards
achieving the DGI-2 target on sectoral accounts by Households, financial corporations and private
2021. For the first time, insurance and provident funds non-financial corporations (PvNFCs) had positive net
are presented distinctly as a subsector within the other worth7, while general government and public non-
financial corporations (OFCs) sectors. Bifurcation financial corporations (PuNFCs) had negative net
of financial flows into transactions and valuation worth in the economy during the period 2011-12 to
changes has been attempted for mutual funds, 2017-18. HHs’ net worth, on an average, remained
insurance, pension and provident funds, households close to the net national income (NNI) (Table 1).
and the Reserve Bank of India. Money market and
The overall financial resource balance in the
non-money market mutual funds are also presented
economy - measured by the net acquisition of financial
separately. As regards the rest of the world sector, both
assets less net increase in liabilities remained in
balance of payments (BoP) data and the international
surplus for the third consecutive year in 2017-18
investment position (IIP) have been presented. Efforts
have also been made to reconcile financial stock and with a reduction in net borrowings of NFCs, both
flows data published by the Reserve Bank of India and public and private8 reflecting the recourse to internal
the sequence of accounts (SoA) of the Indian economy saving to finance investment. On the other hand,
published by the National Statistical Office (NSO)6. the resource gap of the GG sector after showing
4
improvement in 2015-16 and 2016-17, reverted to
Recommendation no. 8: ‘The G-20 economies to compile and disseminate,
on a quarterly and annual frequency, sectoral accounts flows and balance its average level in 2017-18. Net lending by HHs
sheet data, based on the internationally agreed template, including data for
the other (non-bank) financial corporations sector, and develop from-whom
which had strongly recovered in 2015-16 from a
to-whom matrices for both transactions and stocks to support balance sheet slump in the previous years, was impacted by
analysis.’
5
This article has benefitted from the recommendations of the Committee
demonetisation in 2016-17 and decelerated further in
on Financial Sector Statistics (Chairman: Prof. Ravindra H. Dholakia) set up 2017-18 (Table 2).
by the National Statistical Commission (NSC) (May 2018). The main terms
of reference of the CFSS included ‘to review the existing system for collection,
7
processing of FoF statistics …’ and ‘recommend measures for improvement Net worth is calculated as the difference between outstanding assets and
consistent with international standards’. liabilities (excluding shareholders’ equity).
6 8
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) decided The decline in net borrowing by non-financial corporations is also supported
to merge the Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the National Sample Survey by the national accounts data, which shows lower requirement of borrowing
Office (NSSO) into National Statistical Office (NSO) effective May 23, 2019. by private non-financial corporations.
Liabilities
1. Financial Corporations 33 35 35 35 35 35 37
2. Non-Financial Corporations 21 19 17 16 13 14 14
a. Public Non-Financial Corporations -2 -3 -5 -7 -9 -10 -11
b. Private Non-Financial Corporations 23 22 22 22 22 24 24
3. General Government -47 -47 -47 -48 -49 -49 -50
4. Household Sector 105 101 99 100 100 100 100
5. Rest of the World 23 26 26 26 25 23 23
III. Sector-wise Financial Trends are constituent of FCs but are different in the sense
depository institutions other than the central bank, The central bank as the issuer of currency in
and other financial corporations (OFCs) engaged in 9
the economy has currency as its main liability. As
financial intermediation. The ODCs, which mobilise much as around 95 per cent of the currency issued
deposits from other units, play a predominant role by the Reserve Bank of India is held by households.
in a bank-based economy like India (Chart 1). They The second most important central bank liability is
include scheduled commercial banks, co-operative deposits, which are mostly held by the ODC sector.
banks and credit societies, deposit taking non-banking In 2016-17, however, the composition of currency and
financial companies and deposit taking housing deposits on the liabilities side changed. Flow in terms
finance companies.
of currency turned negative as specified bank notes the most important factor in deposit mobilisation by
(SBNs) were returned to the Reserve Bank of India, the banking system (RBI, 2019). This is corroborated
including through the banking system, liabilities in by the steady decline in household financial saving
the form of deposits increased as ODCs deposited in the form of deposits11. Expanding financial literacy
their surplus liquidity with the Reserve Bank of India. could also have encouraged people to move away
This led to a shift in the composition of liabilities from traditional instruments like deposits (RBI, 2016).
of Reserve Bank of India from non-interest bearing The secular contraction in the balance sheet of ODCs
currency liabilities to interest bearing deposits. sector was not reversed even during demonetisation,
As the process of remonetisation gathered pace in inflow of SBNs into the banking system was counter
2017-18, currency moved back to the position of being balanced by: i) redemption of deposits held in Foreign
its most important liability. On the assets side, debt Currency Non-Resident (Bank) (FCNR(B)) account; and
securities issued by the RoW form the predominant ii) repayment of loans owed to the Reserve Bank of
component, followed by loans to the ODCs sector. India (RBI, 2017).
This composition changed briefly during 2016-17,
The most important instrument used by the
as ODCs and OFCs used post-demonetisation the
ODCs to acquire liabilities are deposits, mostly from
surplus liquidity to repay the loans outstanding with
the households followed by loans, mostly acquired
the Reserve Bank of India.
from the OFCs. On the assets side, loans advanced to
III.1.2 Other Depository Corporations non-financial corporations and households is the most
The balance sheet of other depository important instrument, followed by investment in debt
corporations (ODCs) sector has been in a contraction securities, primarily government securities.
mode since 2013-14, reflecting the shift in the Demonetisation affected the composition of
preferences away from deposits towards other balance sheet of the ODCs. It led to an increase in the
competing financial instruments like mutual funds outstanding liabilities of ODCs in the form of deposits
and small savings (Chart 3). Income is found to be and a decline in assets in the form of loans (Chart 4
and 5). The huge cash flow into the ODCs sector was
used to acquire government debt securities, intra-
sectoral deposits and deposits with the central bank
during 2016-17. With the process of remonetisation in
2017-18, the flows moved in the opposite direction -
deposits turned negative, while loans increased.
Overall financial net worth of this sector has
remained positive, however, it has been steadily
declining since 2013-14, mainly on account of increase
in non-performing assets (NPA) in the banking sector.
Within the ODCs sector, scheduled commercial
banks (SCBs) and deposit taking non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs-D) exhibit complementarity in
their financial intermediation roles. The size of the
11
Household saving had a share of around 61 per cent in total saving during
2011-12 to 2017-18.
consolidated balance sheet of SCBs in India has been III.1.3 Other Financial Corporations
growing at a slowing pace over the period of study
The size of other financial corporations (OFCs)
as they grappled with stressed assets. However, the
sector has remained much smaller than that of the
consolidated balance sheet of NBFCs was buoyed by
strong credit expansion enabled by low NPA levels ODCs sector in India although. it has been expanding
relative to banks and stronger capital buffers (RBI, since 2013-14 with the growing preference among
2018).12 households for products like insurance, mutual
12
“Non-Banking Financial Institutions”, Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, 2018
borrow from the surplus sectors in the economy like declining investment and rising corporate earnings.
households and financial corporations to meet their The networth of the PuNFCs, on the other-hand, has
needs for investment in productive assets. been negative and worsening over time on account
In terms of ownership, this sector is bifurcated of large number of loss-making central public sector
enterprises (CPSEs) and aggressive disinvestment by
into publicly owned non-financial corporations
the Government.
(PuNFCs)13 (entities in which more than 50 per cent
of share is held by the Government) and the private The inter-linkage between the NFCs and the
non-financial corporations (PvNFCs), which are larger FCs is noteworthy, since funds from all sectors are
in terms of both number and the size of the balance intermediated through financial corporations. Inflows
sheet. from the RoW in the form of direct and indirect
(equities and debt securities) investment in India is
In case of PvNFCs, equities are the largest
also substantial.
source of external finance followed by loans and
borrowings. PvNFCs are the largest equity holders The financial resource gap of the PvNFCs declined
among themselves. In contrast, loans and borrowings steadily from 2012-13 to 2017-18 from a deficit of 5.3
is a more preferred form of external finance for the per cent of NNI to 1.5 per cent. Lower investment
public NFCs,. demand, increased savings and lower inflation
has benefited PvNFCs as evident from the saving-
The net-worth position of PvNFCs is positive
investment behaviour of the PvNFCs reflected in the
due to the large share of shareholder’s funds in
national accounts (Chart 9).
their balance sheet. It has been rising on account of
The share of claims by the PvNFCs in total
13
PuNFCs include Central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), State
government-owned enterprises, Power and Port Trust. (State government
liabilities almost doubled in 2016-17 (Chart 10).
owned enterprises data could not be incorporated due to data unavailability). Foreign direct investment (FDI) from the RoW sector
addition to the minimum statutory liquidity ratio household investment. Households also act as
(SLR) requirement. entrepreneurs by investing in buildings, machinery,
III.4 Households and NPISHs and equipment related to their business as self-
employed workers or sole proprietors. At an aggregate
Households play multi-dimensional roles as
consumer, investor and entrepreneur. More than level, households are typically net savers and net
half of GDP is generated in the form of household lenders, and enjoy positive net-worth. The share of
consumption and around one-tenth in terms of financial surplus of the household sector as percentage
of NNI remained at around 8 per cent on average corporations (both ODCs and OFCs) which act as
between 2011-12 to 2017-18. Household financial intermediaries to channel their surpluses to deficit
assets and their surplus showed an uptick during 2015- sectors.
16 on account higher currency and deposits supported
III.5 Rest of the World
by high income growth as GDP growth touched 8 per
cent for the first time during the current decade. The The financial stock and flows of the rest of
the world sector emanate from the flow of financial
financial surplus of households have shrunk in the
resources between the domestic economy and non-
subsequent years. In 2017-18, both household assets
residential institutional units (Reserve Bank of India,
and liabilities expanded but the growth in the latter
2015). The primary source of funds for the RoW
outpaced the former resulting in further moderation sector is through issuance of debt securities which is
in surplus (Chart 13). subscribed by the central bank and ODCs, deposits by
Currency and deposits constitute more than ODCs and investment in equities by NFCs (Chart 14).
half of the total assets held by households; however, In India, investment from RoW comes
their share in total assets has been declining overtime in the form of equities and debt securities.
and are replaced by equities and debt securities. The The share of loans and borrowings expanded
share of insurance and pension funds has gradually significantly on account of growing demand for
increased, indicative of growing risk appetite and external commercial borrowings mostly from the non-
portfolio diversification. The major liability in financial corporations. High deposits on the assets
side is reflective of deposits of non-resident Indians
household’s balance sheet is loans and borrowings,
in ODCs. Inflow in debt instruments remained largely
primarily from ODCs and OFCs.
volatile while equity inflow after taking a dip in
The from-whom-to-whom metrics suggest that 2014-15 recovered in the following year and remained
households are connected the most with financial steady thereafter. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI)
inflows in the debt segment were broadly resilient India’s external financing requirements. The decline
to rate hikes of the Fed in 2017-18. FPI into equity was primarily due to reduction in debt securities held
halved amidst concerns about earnings growth, over- by ODCs and loans repaid by NFCs. In 2017-18, there
valuation and spillovers from monetary policy of was higher acquisition of financial assets due to higher
systemic central banks. investment in equities by non-financial corporations
Despite a decline in the net financial assets by (Chart 15).
the RoW in 2016-17, it was comfortably able to meet
Demonetisation had a significant but transitory The relationship between financial development
impact on the instrument used for acquisition of and the growth of physical investment is captured
financial liabilities during 2016-17, and a quick reversal by the financial inter-relation ratio (FIR). This ratio
in the following year. Increased number of insurance defined as the ratio of total financial liabilities to
policies and mutual funds units were issued during net domestic capital formation, increased to 1.82 in
2016-17 (Chart 16, Table 3 and Statement 7). 2017-18 from 1.63 in 2016-17.
The uptick observed in the new issue ratio (NIR) primary issues. This also supports the hypothesis
indicates a surge in primary issues as a proportion that non-financial corporations are mostly financed
to net domestic capital formation during 2017-18. by their own saving or they increasingly depend on
Additionally, it may be noted that the role of external external commercial borrowings. In other words, this
finance also has increased, as captured in the growth is also reflected from the higher external finance as
in primary issuances by the RoW sector. well as the increased intra-sectoral flows.
The intermediation ratio (IR) reflects the degree
VII. Applications of Financial Accounts: Network
of dependence of the economy on the financial sector.
Analysis of Financial Flows
It is measured as the ratio of liabilities of the financial
sector (or secondary issues) to liabilities of the non- The financial accounts provide insights into the
financial sector (or primary issues). This shows a working of the economy and the financial system.
lower role of financial sector in secondary issues than By providing insights into sources and destinations
of financial funds and identifying sectoral surpluses the GG as a net borrower has increased from 2012-13
or deficits, they help in understanding potential to 2017-18. The role of the RoW as a net lender has
transmission of shocks and risks due to inter-sectoral reduced considerably, whereas the role of OFCs as a
linkages and explain saving, capital formation, wealth net lender has increased marginally. The relative size
and indebtedness. of the PuNFCs has remained broadly unchanged. Net
borrowing position of the PvNFCs has declined from
The FWTW framework enables the application
2012 to 2017. The ODCs have changed from being net
of network theory in financial accounts to effectively
lenders to net borrowers due to changes in instrument
disentangle propagation of shocks in the financial
composition owing to demonetisation.
system (RBI, 2018). The graphs portray the extent
(magnitude) of net flows (uses minus sources) VIII. Conclusion
between sectors in the economy (Chart 17). The size
The Indian economy witnessed major shifts
of the nodes pertains to the relative shares of sectors
in the pattern and volume of financial transactions
in total net lending/borrowing between all sectors
across major sectors during the period 2011-12 to
in the economy. The nodes in green represent net
2017-18. The household sector which remains the
lenders whereas the nodes in red represent net
major supplier of funds, has been undergoing a
borrowers. The weight of the edges represents the
major behavioural shift with greater financialisation
relative share of net lending/borrowing from one
and diversification of household savings - a trend
sector to another in the total net lending/borrowing in
that augurs well for sustaining high growth of the
the economy. The relative positions not absolute net
Indian economy. There has been a shift in savings of
lending/borrowing between sectors can be compared
households sector from physical to financial assets.
across time. Furthermore, a shift away from bank deposits to
HHs are net lenders and account for the largest investments in mutual funds, insurance and pension
share of relative net flows in the economy. The size of funds is also observed.
— (2016), “Report on Trends and Progress of Banking — (2018), “State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2017-
in India”, Reserve Bank of India. 18 and 2018-19”, Reserve Bank of India.
— (2018), “Report on Trends and Progress of Banking SNA (2008), “System of National Accounts”, United
in India”, Reserve Bank of India. Nations, the European Commission, the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development, the
— (2017), “Annual Report 2016-17”, Reserve Bank of
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
India.
Group.
— (2018), “Financial Stability Report”, December 2018,
Van de Ven, P. and D. Fano (eds.) (2017), Understanding
Reserve Bank of India.
Financial Accounts, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://
— (2019); “Bank Deposits: Underlying Dynamics”, RBI doi.org/10.1787/9789264281288-en.
Bulletin, May, Reserve Bank of India.
Cross-border Trade Credit: The paper suggests that higher imports – whether
due to high prices or volumes – lead to an increase
A Post-Crisis Empirical in trade credit. From the supply-side perspective,
Analysis for India financial health of banks, cost of trade credit and size
of their overseas network seem to influence their
The paper profiles trade credit extended by trade credit operations. The empirical findings of the
domestic and foreign banks to Indian importers by paper suggest that the banks need to expand their
focusing on its size, composition and cost pattern. global banking relationship and shift towards the
Using a panel data of 55 banks for 2007-08:Q1 to use of globally accepted trade finance instruments
2016-17:Q4, the paper finds that both demand and instead of indigenous instruments (i.e., LoUs /LoCs)
supply-side factors influence the flow of trade credit. which, however, may push up the cost.
Does Financial Cycle Exist in analysis also indicates that the ongoing downturn in
financial cycle seems to have reached its trough by
India? 2018:Q4. The paper finds a longer duration financial
cycle with the average length of about 12 years vis-
The paper, for the first time in the Indian context, à-vis a shorter duration business cycle with the
aims to provide an aggregate measure of financial average length of about 5 years. The dominance of
cycle considering bank credit, equity prices, house medium-term cycles in overall variation of financial
prices and real exchange rate. The cyclical properties variables has been found to have increased since
of the financial variables are examined to identify mid-1990s coinciding with the rise in the pace of
the existence of financial cycle. The overall analysis financial liberalisation. While both credit and equity
suggests that there is a well-defined financial cycle in prices drive financial cycles in India, the contribution
India and the expansionary phases of financial cycle, of house prices has increased since mid-2000s. The
particularly the peak, provides an early warning paper suggests that a close monitoring of financial
signal about rising stress in the banking sector and cycle on a regular interval is essential to enhance
weakening of economic activity in the future. The macroeconomic and financial stability.
Contents
No. Title Page
Financial Markets
26 Daily Call Money Rates 85
27 Certificates of Deposit 86
28 Commercial Paper 86
29 Average Daily Turnover in Select Financial Markets 86
30 New Capital Issues by Non-Government Public Limited Companies 87
External Sector
31 Foreign Trade 88
32 Foreign Exchange Reserves 88
33 NRI Deposits 88
34 Foreign Investment Inflows 89
35 Outward Remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for Resident Individuals 89
36 Indices of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) 90
of the Indian Rupee
37 External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) - Registrations 90
38 India’s Overall Balance of Payments (US $ Million) 91
39 India's Overall Balance of Payments (` Billion) 92
40 Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (US $ Million) 93
41 Standard Presentation of BoP in India as per BPM6 (` Billion) 94
42 International Investment Position 95
Occasional Series
44 Small Savings 97
45 Ownership Pattern of Central and State Governments Securities 98
46 Combined Receipts and Disbursements of the Central and State Governments 99
47 Financial Accommodation Availed by State Governments under various Facilities 100
48 Investments by State Governments 101
49 Market Borrowings of State Governments 102
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Issue Department 1
1.1 Liabilities 1
1.1.1 Notes in Circulation 1.
21,137.64 19,174.27 21,713.70 21,936.42 21,938.99 21,799.72 21,635.30
1.1.2 Notes held in Banking Department 1.
0.11 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.09
1.1/1.2 Total Liabilities (Total Notes Issued) or Assets 1.
21,137.75 19,174.36 21,713.81 21,936.55 21,939.10 21,799.84 21,635.39
1.2 Assets 2
1.2.1 Gold Coin and Bullion 1.
794.81 743.56 757.82 757.82 757.82 757.82 757.82
1.2.2 Foreign Securities 1.
20,335.59 18,421.54 20,947.36 21,170.21 21,172.84 21,033.63 20,869.24
1.2.3 Rupee Coin 1.
7.35 9.26 8.63 8.52 8.44 8.39 8.33
1.2.4 Government of India Rupee Securities 1.
– – – – – – –
2 Banking Department 2
2.1 Liabilities 1
2.1.1 Deposits 2.
8,060.12 6,177.25 6,808.97 6,823.03 7,144.77 7,132.26 7,455.15
2.1.1.1 Central Government 2.
1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00
2.1.1.2 Market Stabilisation Scheme 2.
– – – – – – –
2.1.1.3 State Governments 2.
0.43 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42
2.1.1.4 Scheduled Commercial Banks 2.
5,657.07 4,922.13 5,364.15 5,093.60 5,441.41 5,032.48 5,720.13
2.1.1.5 Scheduled State Co-operative Banks 2.
41.97 36.86 39.10 38.32 37.99 38.18 39.97
2.1.1.6 Non-Scheduled State Co-operative Banks 2.
34.94 18.82 25.84 27.14 26.44 25.33 26.61
2.1.1.7 Other Banks 2.
320.36 274.21 301.72 300.01 301.11 297.83 308.66
2.1.1.8 Others 2.
1,997.34 923.80 1,076.73 1,355.35 1,336.39 1,737.01 1,358.36
2.1.1.9 Financial Institution Outside India 2.
7.00 – – 7.18 – – –
2.1.2 Other Liabilities 2.
10,876.86 10,307.00 11,436.01 11,358.34 11,384.83 11,546.32 11,309.45
2.1/2.2 Total Liabilities or Assets 2.
18,936.98 16,484.25 18,244.98 18,181.37 18,529.60 18,678.58 18,764.59
2.2 Assets 2
2.2.1 Notes and Coins 2.
0.11 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.09
2.2.2 Balances held Abroad 2.
6,466.40 7,925.82 6,803.28 6,496.05 6,504.09 6,963.93 6,926.94
2.2.3 Loans and Advances 2.
2.2.3.1 Central Government 2.
– 253.22 – 425.31 429.52 – 65.96
2.2.3.2 State Governments 2.
0.10 6.43 13.22 54.01 92.76 1.63 16.61
2.2.3.3 Scheduled Commercial Banks 2.
1,806.88 918.26 449.76 265.44 432.95 512.30 541.85
2.2.3.4 Scheduled State Co-op.Banks 2.
– – 0.35 0.35 0.35 – –
2.2.3.5 Industrial Dev. Bank of India 2.
– – – – – – –
2.2.3.6 NABARD 2.
– – – – – – –
2.2.3.7 EXIM Bank 2.
– – – – – – –
2.2.3.8 Others 2.
134.63 62.37 70.21 68.34 67.28 64.79 67.91
2.2.3.9 Financial Institution Outside India 2.
7.00 – – 7.18 – – –
2.2.4 Bills Purchased and Discounted 2.
2.2.4.1 Internal 2.
– – – – – – –
2.2.4.2 Government Treasury Bills 2.
– – – – – – –
2.2.5 Investments 2.
9,230.80 6,361.53 9,628.90 9,593.19 9,728.07 9,857.32 9,857.67
2.2.6 Other Assets 2.
1,291.06 956.53 1,279.15 1,271.37 1,274.47 1,278.49 1,287.57
2.2.6.1 Gold 2.
871.69 697.93 844.83 844.83 844.83 844.83 844.83
* Data are provisional
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
May 1, 2019 – 242.41 – – 0.70 – – – – –241.71
May 2, 2019 50.41 224.55 – – 5.10 0.75 – – – –168.29
May 3, 2019 44.21 406.85 123.65 – 3.17 – – – 125.00 –110.82
May 4, 2019 – 324.57 – – – – – – – –324.57
May 6, 2019 44.36 405.30 – 118.35 – – – – – –479.29
May 7, 2019 45.51 369.82 107.00 – 6.00 – – – – –211.31
May 8, 2019 60.31 134.53 – 95.89 0.50 – – – – –169.61
May 9, 2019 164.61 124.47 – – 3.85 – – – – 43.99
May 10, 2019 56.21 447.43 225.90 – 0.66 – – – – –164.66
May 13, 2019 76.66 202.21 – – 0.52 – – – – –125.03
May 14, 2019 44.16 335.48 183.50 – – – – – – –107.82
May 15, 2019 114.91 127.01 – 209.22 1.82 – – – – –219.50
May 16, 2019 61.36 113.85 – 300.06 0.07 – – – – –352.48
May 17, 2019 90.61 64.10 118.50 177.99 17.70 –0.78 – – 125.00 108.94
May 18, 2019 – 127.64 – – 41.25 – – – – –86.39
May 20, 2019 70.11 189.82 – – 4.25 –0.56 – – – –116.02
May 21, 2019 80.16 102.46 156.50 – – 1.34 – – – 135.54
May 22, 2019 67.41 115.09 – – 0.02 –1.70 – – – –49.36
May 23, 2019 45.01 232.56 – – – 1.90 – – – –185.65
May 24, 2019 48.46 295.88 165.00 248.98 16.15 – – – – –315.25
May 27, 2019 183.31 85.72 – 400.07 1.00 –1.40 – – – –302.88
May 28, 2019 114.46 149.58 35.60 250.40 10.00 0.90 – – – –239.02
May 29, 2019 52.66 190.10 – 350.10 5.00 – – – – –482.54
May 30, 2019 156.06 123.60 – 464.60 – – – – – –432.14
May 31, 2019 99.56 120.91 31.50 419.41 4.66 – – – – –404.60
4 Outstanding Net Forward Sales (–)/ Purchase (+) at the end of month –13,774.00 11,252.00 –18,512.00 –18,288.00
(US $ Million)
2 Outstanding Net Currency Futures Sales (–)/ Purchase (+) 0.00 –735.00 0.00 0.00
at the end of month (US $ Million)
(US $ Million)
1 2 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 MSF 128.8 20.4 5.0 10.9 128.8 10.0 16.2 14.0
2.1 Limit – – – – – – – –
2.2 Outstanding – – – – – – – –
3.1 Limit 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0
3.2 Outstanding 26.8 23.9 17.0 17.9 26.8 23.5 27.6 24.5
4.1 Limit – – – – – – – –
4.2 Outstanding – – – – – – – –
5 Total Outstanding (1+2.2+3.2+4.2) 155.6 44.4 22.1 28.8 155.6 33.5 43.8 38.5
No. 14: Business in India - All Scheduled Banks and All Scheduled Commercial Banks
(` Billion)
Item As on the Last Reporting Friday (in case of March)/ Last Friday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of Reporting Banks 222 223 213 213 147 149 138 138
1 Liabilities to the Banking System 2,763.5 2,495.0 2,597.6 2,564.2 2,714.3 2,443.3 2,548.1 2,516.4
1.1 Demand and Time Deposits from Banks 1,816.5 1,567.2 1,745.9 1,769.7 1,768.3 1,521.7 1,700.3 1,723.2
1.2 Borrowings from Banks 794.9 769.1 747.6 687.9 794.6 764.3 745.6 687.8
1.3 Other Demand and Time Liabilities 152.1 158.8 104.0 106.6 151.4 157.2 102.3 105.4
2 Liabilities to Others 138,359.8 125,238.6 136,819.1 138,321.1 134,956.7 122,097.1 133,412.3 134,890.4
2.1 Aggregate Deposits 129,015.8 116,531.0 128,116.5 129,404.5 125,737.7 113,528.2 124,838.7 126,112.6
2.1.1 Demand 15,425.5 11,983.4 13,819.1 13,752.0 15,112.9 11,698.9 13,517.2 13,451.4
2.1.2 Time 113,590.3 104,547.7 114,297.4 115,652.5 110,624.8 101,829.4 111,321.5 112,661.2
2.2 Borrowings 3,818.6 3,718.5 3,731.7 3,577.5 3,782.5 3,670.7 3,694.6 3,539.7
2.3 Other Demand and Time Liabilities 5,525.3 4,989.1 4,970.9 5,339.2 5,436.5 4,898.1 4,879.0 5,238.2
3 Borrowings from Reserve Bank 1,806.9 581.8 1,054.8 450.1 1,806.9 581.8 1,054.8 449.8
3.2 Others 1,806.9 581.8 1,054.8 450.1 1,806.9 581.8 1,054.8 449.8
4 Cash in Hand and Balances with Reserve Bank 6,575.6 5,519.1 6,165.8 6,297.7 6,405.8 5,380.8 6,011.1 6,147.2
4.1 Cash in Hand 765.5 689.5 799.1 801.3 748.77 672.3 781.7 783.0
4.2 Balances with Reserve Bank 5,810.0 4,829.6 5,366.8 5,496.3 5,657.1 4,708.5 5,229.4 5,364.2
5 Assets with the Banking System 3,726.7 3,258.1 3,604.2 3,579.8 3,278.1 2,870.6 3,199.1 3,129.8
5.1 Balances with Other Banks 2,458.8 2,154.2 2,429.1 2,479.3 2,230.5 1,987.9 2,227.1 2,266.4
5.1.1 In Current Account 172.2 99.3 138.0 145.7 133.3 79.6 112.4 121.1
5.1.2 In Other Accounts 2,286.6 2,054.9 2,291.2 2,333.6 2,097.2 1,908.3 2,114.7 2,145.4
5.2 Money at Call and Short Notice 470.5 477.2 404.0 335.3 322.5 299.7 273.2 203.0
5.3 Advances to Banks 329.5 304.3 282.9 317.6 296.4 299.7 264.6 275.4
5.4 Other Assets 467.9 322.5 488.2 447.8 428.8 283.3 434.1 385.0
6.1 Government Securities 34,678.4 34,616.7 35,414.8 35,852.3 33,790.0 33,726.8 34,543.3 34,973.0
6.2 Other Approved Securities 77.6 64.9 68.8 76.0 20.5 12.0 11.8 17.8
7 Bank Credit 100,471.2 87,943.6 99,068.3 99,737.2 97,717.2 85,376.6 96,209.5 96,879.9
7a Food Credit 646.4 759.4 702.0 1,031.1 416.1 529.1 431.6 760.8
7.1 Loans, Cash-credits and Overdrafts 97,922.9 85,736.2 96,677.0 97,391.1 95,219.9 83,226.6 93,867.5 94,580.1
7.2 Inland Bills-Purchased 276.4 214.9 257.8 279.5 262.2 190.8 244.3 267.2
7.3 Inland Bills-Discounted 1,609.8 1,378.5 1,487.7 1,457.7 1,583.0 1,352.2 1,461.6 1,433.6
7.4 Foreign Bills-Purchased 249.1 237.1 239.2 226.6 245.9 234.9 235.2 222.5
7.5 Foreign Bills-Discounted 413.0 376.9 406.5 382.3 406.2 372.0 400.8 376.5
No. 17: State Co-operative Banks Maintaining Accounts with the Reserve Bank of India
(` Billion)
Source: Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.
2 Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers 1986-87 5.89 907 891 932 940
3 Consumer Price Index for Rural Labourers 1986-87 – 915 899 939 948
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India.
Source : Central Statistics Ofce, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India
1 2 3 4 5
1 Revenue Receipts 19,776.9 1,437.6 1,264.6 7.3 7.3
1.1 Tax Revenue (Net) 17,050.5 1,153.4 1,024.1 6.8 6.9
1.2 Non-Tax Revenue 2,726.5 284.2 240.5 10.4 9.8
2 Non-Debt Capital Receipt 1,025.1 30.7 10.0 3.0 1.1
2.1 Recovery of Loans 125.1 7.1 5.7 5.7 4.7
2.2 Other Receipts 900.0 23.6 4.3 2.6 0.5
3 Total Receipts (excluding borrowings) (1+2) 20,802.0 1,468.3 1,274.6 7.1 7.0
4 Revenue Expenditure 24,479.1 4,652.8 4,091.6 19.0 19.1
4.1 Interest Payments 6,650.6 748.0 736.1 11.2 12.8
5 Capital Expenditure 3,362.9 477.0 637.9 14.2 21.2
6 Total Expenditure (4+5) 27,842.0 5,129.9 4,729.5 18.4 19.4
7 Revenue Deficit (4-1) 4,702.1 3,215.2 2,827.1 68.4 68.0
8 Fiscal Deficit (6-3) 7,040.0 3,661.6 3,454.9 52.0 55.3
9 Gross Primary Deficit (8-4.1) 389.4 2,913.5 2,718.9 748.2 560.8
Source: Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Union Budget 2018-19.
Financial Markets
No. 26: Daily Call Money Rates
1 2
May 2, 2019 4.50-6.25 6.06
May 3, 2019 4.50-6.25 6.02
May 4, 2019 4.20-5.95 5.46
May 6, 2019 4.50-6.25 5.94
May 7, 2019 4.50-6.95 5.94
May 8, 2019 4.50-6.05 5.96
May 9, 2019 4.50-6.15 5.98
May 10, 2019 4.50-6.10 5.95
May 13, 2019 4.50-6.25 5.92
May 14, 2019 4.50-6.15 5.91
May 15, 2019 4.50-6.10 5.95
May 16, 2019 4.50-6.05 5.96
May 17, 2019 4.50-6.15 5.99
May 20, 2019 4.50-6.10 5.96
May 21, 2019 4.50-6.15 5.94
May 22, 2019 4.50-6.20 5.94
May 23, 2019 4.50-6.10 5.90
May 24, 2019 4.50-6.15 5.88
May 27, 2019 4.50-6.05 5.94
May 28, 2019 4.50-6.30 5.87
May 29, 2019 4.50-6.05 5.87
May 30, 2019 4.50-6.05 5.92
May 31, 2019 4.50-6.25 5.91
Note : Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligation (CBLO) segment of the money market has been discontinued and replaced
with Triparty Repo with effect from November 05, 2018.
(` Billion)
Security & Type of Issue 2018-19 2018-19 (Apr.-May) 2019-20 (Apr.-May) * May 2018 May 2019 *
No. of Amount No. of
No. of Amount
Issues
No.
Issues
25: Auctions No.
Amount of Amount
of Treasury Bills No. of Amount
Issues Issues Issues
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 Equity Shares 129 167.51 34 25.7 16 1
522.3 20 22.3 7 244.8
2 Preference Shares – –2 – – – 2– – – – –
2.1 Public – –2 – – – 2– – – – –
2.2 Rights – –2 – – – 2– – – – –
3.1 Convertible – –3 – – – 3– – – – –
3.1.1 Public – –3 – – – 3– – – – –
3.1.2 Rights – –3 – – – 3– – – – –
3.2.2 Rights – –3 – – – 3– – – – –
4 Bonds – –4 – – – 4– – – – –
4.1 Public – –4 – – – 4– – – – –
4.2 Rights – –4 – – – 4– – – – –
* : Data is Provisional
Note : Since April 2018, monthly data is compiled on the basis of closing date of issues as against the earlier practice of compilation on the basis of opening date.
Source : Securities and Exchange Board of India.
External Sector
No. 31: Foreign Trade
Item Unit 2018-19 2018 2019
May Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
` Billion 23,039.0 1,949.3 1,863.3 1,902.9 2,264.6 1,810.0 2,092.8
1 Exports
US $ Million 329,536.2 28,861.4 26,342.1 26,717.6 32,594.5 26,070.1 29,994.5
` Billion 3,248.2 353.8 224.6 217.7 248.5 255.1 360.3
1.1 Oil
US $ Million 46,397.4 5,237.8 3,175.8 3,056.3 3,576.2 3,674.6 5,164.2
` Billion 19,790.8 1,595.5 1,638.6 1,685.2 2,016.2 1,554.9 1,732.5
1.2 Non-oil
US $ Million 283,138.8 23,623.6 23,166.3 23,661.3 29,018.3 22,395.5 24,830.2
` Billion 35,876.8 2,936.6 2,907.2 2,583.5 3,018.1 2,874.4 3,164.5
2 Imports
US $ Million 513,085.9 43,479.9 41,100.8 36,273.6 43,439.9 41,401.1 45,354.0
` Billion 9,860.2 776.5 796.0 670.5 816.1 789.9 868.2
2.1 Oil
US $ Million 140,883.8 11,497.6 11,253.1 9,414.0 11,746.0 11,377.8 12,443.5
` Billion 26,016.6 2,160.1 2,111.2 1,913.0 2,202.0 2,084.4 2,296.3
2.2 Non-oil
US $ Million 372,202.1 31,982.3 29,847.7 26,859.6 31,693.9 30,023.3 32,910.5
` Billion –12,837.9 –987.3 –1,043.9 –680.6 –753.5 –1,064.4 –1,071.7
3 Trade Balance
US $ Million –183,549.7 –14,618.4 –14,758.7 –9,556.0 –10,845.4 –15,330.9 –15,359.5
` Billion –6,612.0 –422.8 –571.3 –452.8 –567.6 –534.8 –507.9
3.1 Oil
US $ Million –94,486.4 –6,259.8 –8,077.3 –6,357.7 –8,169.8 –7,703.2 –7,279.3
` Billion –6,225.9 –564.5 –472.6 –227.8 –185.9 –529.6 –563.8
3.2 Non-oil
US $ Million –89,063.3 –8,358.6 –6,681.4 –3,198.3 –2,675.5 –7,627.8 –8,080.3
Source: DGCI&S and Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
(US$ Million)
No. 35: Outward Remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for Resident Individuals
(US$ Million)
Item 2018-19 2018 2019
May Mar. Apr. May
1 2 3 4 5
1 Outward Remittances under the LRS 13,787.6 996.1 1,476.8 1,287.9 1,486.1
1.1 Deposit 455.9 31.0 100.6 65.2 50.2
1.2 Purchase of immovable property 84.5 8.2 10.5 8.5 9.4
1.3 Investment in equity/debt 422.9 26.5 74.4 35.4 31.6
1.4 Gift 1,370.2 118.6 161.0 166.6 154.2
1.5 Donations 8.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.8
1.6 Travel 4,803.8 364.7 429.2 429.8 568.3
1.7 Maintenance of close relatives 2,800.9 248.8 322.9 296.1 300.0
1.8 Medical Treatment 28.6 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5
1.9 Studies Abroad 3,569.9 178.0 333.8 252.8 334.4
1.10 Others 242.2 17.9 41.6 30.5 32.7
No. 36: Indices of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nominal Effective
Exchange Rate (NEER) of the Indian Rupee
2018 2019
2017-18 2018-19
June May June
Item 1 2 3 4 5
36-Currency Export and Trade Based Weights (Base: 2004-05=100)
1 Trade-Based Weights
1.1 NEER 76.94 72.64 73.94 74.11 74.23
1.2 REER 119.71 114.01 115.94 115.86 116.04
2 Export-Based Weights
2.1 NEER 78.89 74.18 75.71 75.57 75.75
2.2 REER 121.94
2017-18 116.32
2018-19 118.53 118.25 118.54
6-Currency Trade Based Weights
1 Base: 2004-05 (April-March) =100
1.1 NEER 67.91 63.07 64.10 64.23 64.45
1.2 REER 129.19 121.70 123.18 125.15 124.55
2 Base: 2017-18 (April-March) =100
2.1 NEER 100.00 92.88 94.40 94.58 94.91
2.2 REER 100.00 94.20 95.35 96.87 96.41
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 RTGS 136.63 13.64 11.48 12.49 1,715,520.61 190,693.10 148,481.20 158,379.63
1.1 Customer Transactions 133.30 13.35 11.23 12.22 1,184,368.12 125,551.00 93,080.66 104,886.16
1.2 Interbank Transactions 3.31 0.29 0.25 0.26 172,513.75 23,178.34 19,372.66 19,087.66
1.3 Interbank Clearing 0.027 0.003 0.002 0.003 358,638.74 41,963.75 36,027.89 34,405.81
2 CCIL Operated Systems 3.62 0.28 0.25 0.31 1,165,510.38 103,147.77 95,078.03 108,987.82
2.1 CBLO 0.130 – – – 181,404.63 – – –
2.2 Govt. Securities Clearing 1.11 0.09 0.09 0.13 509,315.87 53,731.05 48,748.73 64,438.30
2.2.1 Outright 0.81 0.06 0.06 0.09 93,550.07 7,361.13 7,915.80 10,329.18
2.2.2 Repo 0.216 0.017 0.016 0.022 271,249.89 18,540.59 16,857.34 24,166.31
2.2.3 Tri-party Repo 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.02 144,515.90 27,829.33 23,975.59 29,942.82
2.3 Forex Clearing 2.38 0.19 0.16 0.19 474,789.88 49,416.73 46,329.31 44,549.52
3 Paper Clearing 1,123.76 99.76 89.79 92.11 82,460.65 7,658.15 7,268.12 7,170.78
3.1 Cheque Truncation System (CTS) 1,111.67 99.16 89.36 91.77 81,535.92 7,610.47 7,235.33 7,136.88
3.2 MICR Clearing – – – – – – – –
3.2.1 RBI Centres – – – – – – – –
3.2.2 Other Centres – – – – – – – –
3.3 Non-MICR Clearing 12.09 0.60 0.44 0.34 924.73 47.68 32.79 33.91
4 Retail Electronic Clearing 7,113.25 727.32 731.85 683.81 258,745.44 28,878.55 23,801.05 24,834.16
4.1 ECS DR 0.93 0.02 0.03 0.03 12.60 0.09 0.09 0.09
4.2 ECS CR (includes NECS) 5.36 0.25 0.52 0.29 132.35 10.48 11.87 7.77
4.3 EFT/NEFT 2,318.89 242.39 203.44 217.68 227,936.08 25,470.01 20,546.69 21,277.74
4.4 Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) 1,752.91 190.18 185.04 183.33 15,902.57 1,762.89 1,691.97 1,804.56
4.5 National Automated Clearing House (NACH) 3,035.17 294.47 342.82 282.48 14,761.84 1,635.08 1,550.43 1,744.00
5 Cards 16,046.26 1,462.26 1,384.27 1,397.34 45,121.45 4,000.60 3,974.05 4,139.95
5.1 Credit Cards 1,772.36 163.27 167.79 174.04 6,078.81 580.49 580.50 616.76
5.1.1 Usage at ATMs 9.77 0.86 0.86 0.89 45.33 3.98 4.02 4.17
5.1.2 Usage at POS 1,762.59 162.41 166.92 173.15 6,033.48 576.51 576.48 612.58
5.2 Debit Cards 14,273.90 1,298.99 1,216.48 1,223.30 39,042.64 3,420.10 3,393.55 3,523.19
5.2.1 Usage at ATMs 9,859.61 891.42 808.91 815.71 33,107.89 2,889.99 2,843.96 2,946.67
5.2.2 Usage at POS 4,414.28 407.57 407.57 407.59 5,934.75 530.11 549.58 576.52
6 Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) 4,604.34 427.24 420.97 419.00 2,128.76 185.99 185.54 182.97
6.1 m-Wallet 4,139.28 384.89 380.62 367.45 1,836.55 159.90 159.75 157.27
6.2 PPI Cards 465.00 42.35 40.35 51.54 291.34 26.09 25.79 25.70
6.3 Paper Vouchers 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 – – –
7 Mobile Banking 6,200.32 872.93 881.23 841.74 29,584.07 4,401.53 4,020.18 4,850.08
8 Cards Outstanding 971.72 971.72 932.77 873.85 – – – –
8.1 Credit Card 47.09 47.09 48.00 48.92 – – – –
8.2 Debit Card 924.63 924.63 884.78 824.93 – – – –
9 Number of ATMs (in actuals) 221703 221703 227164 227227 – – – –
10 Number of POS (in actuals) 3722229 3722229 3757621 3845111 – – – –
11 Grand Total (1.1+1.2+2+3+4+5+6) 29,027.83 2,730.50 2,638.61 2,605.07 2,910,848.56 292,600.42 242,760.11 269,289.51
Note : Data for latest 12 month period is provisional.
Mobile Banking - The data from July 2017 includes only individual payments and corporate payments initiated, processed, and authorised using mobile device.
Other corporate payments which are not initiated, processed, and authorised using mobile device are excluded.
2.1: With effect from November 05, 2018, CCIL has discontinued CBLO.
2.2.3: Tri-party Repo under the Securities segment has been operationalised from November 05, 2018.
Occasional Series
No. 44: Small Savings
(` Billion)
Treasury Bills
Treasury Bills 2018 2019
Category Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar.
1 2 3 4 5
(C) Total (in `. Billion) 3798.76 5280.07 5657.50 5298.26 4127.04
1 Commercial Banks 60.74 55.30 47.84 53.76 57.56
2 Non-Bank PDs 2.17 1.41 1.86 2.06 2.68
3 Insurance Companies 4.17 3.66 4.55 4.74 6.61
4 Mutual Funds 2.27 7.03 10.69 5.65 2.78
5 Co-operative Banks 2.42 1.29 1.20 1.21 2.48
6 Financial Institutions 3.55 2.36 1.67 1.88 2.49
7 Corporates 2.45 1.88 6.67 1.86 2.23
8 Foreign Portfolio Investors 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00
9 Provident Funds 0.11 0.21 0.01 0.02 0.08
10 RBI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11. Others 22.12 26.87 25.50 28.72 23.10
11.1 State Governments 16.35 23.11 21.36 24.04 17.91
No. 46: Combined Receipts and Disbursements of the Central and State Governments
(` Billion)
Item 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 RE 2018-19 BE
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Total Disbursements 30,002.99 32,852.10 37,606.11 42,659.69 48,579.90 53,611.81
1.1 Developmental 17,142.21 18,720.62 22,012.87 25,379.05 29,324.08 32,025.64
1.1.1 Revenue 13,944.26 14,830.18 16,682.50 18,784.17 22,525.73 24,390.87
1.1.2 Capital 2,785.08 3,322.62 4,120.69 5,012.13 5,857.77 6,745.79
1.1.3 Loans 412.88 567.82 1,209.68 1,582.75 940.58 888.98
1.2 Non-Developmental 12,427.83 13,667.69 15,108.10 16,726.46 18,542.53 20,762.79
1.2.1 Revenue 11,413.65 12,695.20 13,797.27 15,552.39 17,684.36 19,839.32
1.2.1.1 Interest Payments 5,342.30 5,845.42 6,480.91 7,244.48 8,166.36 8,851.50
1.2.2 Capital 990.37 946.87 1,273.06 1,157.75 844.41 909.08
1.2.3 Loans 23.81 25.63 37.77 16.32 13.76 14.40
1.3 Others 432.95 463.79 485.14 554.17 713.29 823.38
2 Total Receipts 30,013.72 31,897.37 37,780.49 42,884.32 47,718.59 52,780.35
2.1 Revenue Receipts 22,114.75 23,876.93 27,483.74 31,322.01 35,923.82 41,185.41
2.1.1 Tax Receipts 18,465.45 20,207.28 22,971.01 26,221.45 30,132.23 34,941.02
2.1.1.1 Taxes on commodities and services 11,257.81 12,123.48 14,409.52 16,523.77 18,296.56 22,138.76
2.1.1.2 Taxes on Income and Property 7,176.34 8,051.76 8,522.71 9,656.22 11,802.47 12,775.14
2.1.1.3 Taxes of Union Territories (Without Legislature) 31.30 32.04 38.78 41.46 33.20 27.12
2.1.2 Non-Tax Receipts 3,649.30 3,669.65 4,512.72 5,100.56 5,791.59 6,244.38
2.1.2.1 Interest Receipts 401.62 396.22 357.79 332.20 316.10 368.35
2.2 Non-debt Capital Receipts 391.13 609.55 598.27 690.63 1,651.83 1,428.43
2.2.1 Recovery of Loans & Advances 93.85 220.72 165.61 209.42 648.80 616.50
2.2.2 Disinvestment proceeds 297.28 388.83 432.66 481.22 1,003.03 811.93
3 Gross Fiscal Deficit [ 1 - ( 2.1 + 2.2 ) ] 7,497.11 8,365.63 9,524.10 10,647.04 11,004.25 10,997.97
3A Sources of Financing: Institution-wise 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ..
3A.1 Domestic Financing 7,424.19 8,236.30 9,396.62 10,467.08 10,980.08 11,023.86
3A.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government 3,358.58 –374.76 2,310.90 6,171.23 1,447.92 ..
3A.1.1.1 Net RBI Credit to Government 1,081.30 –3,341.85 604.72 1,958.16 –1,448.47 ..
3A.1.2 Non-Bank Credit to Government 4,065.61 8,611.06 7,085.72 4,295.85 9,532.16 ..
3A.2 External Financing 72.92 129.33 127.48 179.97 24.18 –25.89
3B Sources of Financing: Instrument-wise 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ..
3B.1 Domestic Financing 7,424.19 8,236.30 9,396.62 10,467.08 10,980.08 11,023.86
3B.1.1 Market Borrowings (net) 6,391.99 6,640.58 6,732.98 6,898.21 7,951.99 8,398.36
3B.1.2 Small Savings (net) –142.81 –565.80 –785.15 –1,050.38 –1,653.29 –1,434.61
3B.1.3 State Provident Funds (net) 312.90 343.39 352.61 456.88 406.13 474.19
3B.1.4 Reserve Funds 34.63 51.09 –33.22 –64.36 6.70 31.14
3B.1.5 Deposits and Advances 255.45 275.45 134.70 177.92 168.45 159.10
3B.1.6 Cash Balances –10.72 954.74 –174.38 –224.63 861.31 831.46
3B.1.7 Others 582.75 536.84 3,169.08 4,273.43 3,238.79 2,564.21
3B.2 External Financing 72.92 129.33 127.48 179.97 24.18 –25.89
4 Total Disbursements as per cent of GDP 26.7 26.3 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.1
5 Total Receipts as per cent of GDP 26.7 25.6 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.7
6 Revenue Receipts as per cent of GDP 19.7 19.2 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.6
7 Tax Receipts as per cent of GDP 16.4 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.3
8 Gross Fiscal Deficit as per cent of GDP 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.4 5.8
No. 47: Financial Accommodation Availed by State Governments under various Facilities
(` Billion)
During May-2019
Sr. State/Union Territory Special Drawing Ways and Means Overdraft (OD)
No Facility (SDF) Advances (WMA)
Average Number Average Number Average Number
amount of days amount of days amount of days
availed availed availed availed availed availed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Andhra Pradesh 1.40 26 12.29 22 5.22 8
2 Arunachal Pradesh - - - - - -
3 Assam - - - - - -
4 Bihar - - - - - -
5 Chhattisgarh - - - - - -
6 Goa - - - - - -
7 Gujarat - - - - - -
8 Haryana - - - - - -
9 Himachal Pradesh - - - - - -
10 Jammu & Kashmir - - 4.70 23 2.75 6
11 Jharkhand - - - - - -
12 Karnataka - - - - - -
13 Kerala - - - - - -
14 Madhya Pradesh - - - - - -
15 Maharashtra - - - - - -
16 Manipur 0.16 31 1.73 27 1.00 24
17 Meghalaya - - - - - -
18 Mizoram - - - - - -
19 Nagaland - - - - - -
20 Odisha - - - - - -
21 Puducherry - - - - - -
22 Punjab 0.58 6 2.79 6 - -
23 Rajasthan - - - - - -
24 Tamil Nadu - - - - - -
25 Telangana 5.75 21 7.45 20 1.25 3
26 Tripura - - - - - -
27 Uttar Pradesh - - - - - -
28 Uttarakhand - - - - - -
29 West Bengal - - - - - -
Notes: 1. SDF is availed by State Governments against the collateral of Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF), Guarantee Redemption
Fund (GRF) & Auction Treasury Bills (ATBs) balances and other investments in government securities.
2. WMA is advance by Reserve Bank of India to State Governments for meeting temporary cash mismatches.
3. OD is advanced to State Governments beyond their WMA limits.
4. Average Availed is the total accommodation (SDF/WMA/OD) availed divided by number of days for which
accommodation was extended during the month.
5. - : Nil.
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
(` Billion)
2018-19
Total amount
2017-18 2018-19 raised, so far in
March April May 2019-20
Sr. No. State
Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Gross Net
Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised Raised
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 Andhra Pradesh 228.00 189.22 302.00 238.24 - -12.19 50.00 34.84 20.00 14.17 70.00 49.00
2 Arunachal Pradesh 8.88 7.03 7.19 6.93 3.19 2.93 2.11 2.11 - - 2.11 2.11
6 Goa 18.00 14.00 23.50 18.50 4.50 3.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00
7 Gujarat 240.00 157.85 369.71 274.57 82.00 65.60 33.00 33.00 20.00 20.00 53.00 53.00
8 Haryana 166.40 158.40 212.65 179.70 42.40 27.40 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 20.00
9 Himachal Pradesh 46.00 25.51 42.10 21.08 4.10 -2.90 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 6.00 6.00
10 Jammu & Kashmir 62.00 39.74 66.84 49.27 3.00 -4.81 8.00 2.61 3.00 3.00 11.00 5.61
13 Kerala 205.00 162.03 195.00 147.84 5.00 -2.69 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00 55.00 55.00
14 Madhya Pradesh 150.00 131.25 204.96 149.71 32.00 0.85 5.00 5.00 15.00 15.00 20.00 20.00
15 Maharashtra 450.00 364.80 208.69 31.17 - -94.57 25.00 25.00 35.00 35.00 60.00 60.00
16 Manipur 5.25 2.78 9.70 6.67 2.70 2.70 2.03 2.03 - - 2.03 2.03
18 Mizoram 4.24 2.77 0.00 -1.23 - -0.97 1.58 1.58 - - 1.58 1.58
19 Nagaland 11.35 7.66 8.22 3.55 1.72 -0.35 1.00 -1.60 - - 1.00 -1.60
22 Punjab 174.70 133.49 221.15 170.53 27.26 18.88 23.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 33.00 22.00
23 Rajasthan 249.14 167.77 331.78 201.86 23.22 -40.21 40.00 40.00 15.00 10.00 55.00 50.00
25 Tamil Nadu 409.65 360.23 431.25 322.78 25.95 -3.03 30.00 30.00 40.00 40.00 70.00 70.00
26 Telangana 246.00 218.28 267.40 221.83 20.22 11.51 15.00 4.16 25.00 20.83 40.00 25.00
28 Uttar Pradesh 416.00 371.78 460.00 333.07 60.00 4.06 - - - -15.00 - -15.00
29 Uttarakhand 66.60 58.30 63.00 52.89 5.50 4.56 5.00 2.00 - - 5.00 2.00
30 West Bengal 369.11 253.04 428.28 304.31 88.00 66.43 - -20.00 - -40.00 - -60.00
Grand Total 4191.00 3402.81 4783.23 3486.43 622.98 123.66 295.72 222.56 221.00 151.00 516.72 373.56
- : Nil.
Source : Reserve Bank of India.
Table No. 1
1.2& 6: Annual data are average of months.
3.5 & 3.7: Relate to ratios of increments over financial year so far.
4.1 to 4.4, 4.8,4.9 &5: Relate to the last friday of the month/financial year.
4.5, 4.6 & 4.7: Relate to five major banks on the last Friday of the month/financial year.
4.10 to 4.12: Relate to the last auction day of the month/financial year.
4.13: Relate to last day of the month/ financial year
7.1&7.2: Relate to Foreign trade in US Dollar.
Table No. 2
2.1.2: Include paid-up capital, reserve fund and Long-Term Operations Funds.
2.2.2: Include cash, fixed deposits and short-term securities/bonds, e.g., issued by IIFC (UK).
Table No. 4
Maturity-wise position of outstanding forward contracts is available at http://nsdp.rbi.org.in under
‘‘Reserves Template’’.
Table No. 5
Special refinance facility to Others, i.e. to the EXIM Bank, is closed since March 31, 2013.
Table No. 6
For scheduled banks, March-end data pertain to the last reporting Friday.
2.2: Exclude balances held in IMF Account No.1, RBI employees’ provident fund, pension fund, gratuity and
superannuation fund.
Table No. 8
NM2 and NM3 do not include FCNR (B) deposits.
2.4: Consist of paid-up capital and reserves.
2.5: includes other demand and time liabilities of the banking system.
Table No. 9
Financial institutions comprise EXIM Bank, SIDBI, NABARD and NHB.
L1 and L2 are compiled monthly and L3 quarterly.
Wherever data are not available, the last available data have been repeated.
Table No. 13
Data in column Nos. (4) & (5) are Provisional.
Table No. 14
Data in column Nos. (4) & (8) are Provisional.
Table No. 17
2.1.1: Exclude reserve fund maintained by co-operative societies with State Co-operative Banks
2.1.2: Exclude borrowings from RBI, SBI, IDBI, NABARD, notified banks and State Governments.
4: Include borrowings from IDBI and NABARD.
Table No. 24
Primary Dealers (PDs) include banks undertaking PD business.
Table No. 30
Exclude private placement and offer for sale.
1: Exclude bonus shares.
2: Include cumulative convertible preference shares and equi-preference shares.
Table No. 32
Exclude investment in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK), SDRs transferred by Government
of India to RBI and foreign currency received under SAARC SWAP arrangement. Foreign currency assets in US
dollar take into account appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies (such as Euro, Sterling, Yen and Australian
Dollar) held in reserves. Foreign exchange holdings are converted into rupees at rupee-US dollar RBI holding rates.
Table No. 34
1.1.1.1.2 & 1.1.1.1.1.4: Estimates.
1.1.1.2: Estimates for latest months.
‘Other capital’ pertains to debt transactions between parent and subsidiaries/branches of FDI enterprises.
Data may not tally with the BoP data due to lag in reporting.
Table No. 35
1.10: Include items such as subscription to journals, maintenance of investment abroad, student loan repayments
and credit card payments.
Table No. 36
Increase in indices indicates appreciation of rupee and vice versa. For 6-Currency index, base year 2016-17 is
a moving one, which gets updated every year. REER figures are based on Consumer Price Index (combined).
Methodological details are available in December 2005 and April 2014 issues of the Bulletin.
Table No. 37
Based on applications for ECB/Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) which have been allotted loan
registration number during the period.
Table No. 43
1.3: Pertain to multiateral net settlement batches.
3.1: Pertain to three centres – Mumbai, New Delhi and Chennai.
3.3: Pertain to clearing houses managed by 21 banks.
6: Available from December 2010.
7: Include IMPS transactions.
9: Includes ATMs deployed by Scheduled Commercial banks and White Label ATMs (WLA). WLA are included
from April 2014 onwards.
Mobile Banking - The data from July 2017 includes only individual payments and corporate payments initiated,
processed, and authorised using mobile device. Other corporate payments which are not initiated, processed,
and authorised using mobile device are excluded.
Table No. 45
(-): represents nil or negligible
The revised table format since June 2016, incorporates the ownership pattern of State Governments Securities
and Treasury Bills along with the Central Government Securities.
State Government Securities include special bonds issued under Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme.
Bank PDs are clubbed under Commercial Banks. However, they form very small fraction of total outstanding
securities.
The category ‘Others’ comprises State Governments, Pension Funds, PSUs, Trusts, HUF/Individuals etc.
Table No. 46
GDP data from 2011-12 onwards are based on 2011-12 base. Data from year 2015-16 pertains to 29 states.
The GDP data from 2015-16 pertains to the Second Advance Estimates of National Income released by Central
Statistics Office on 28th February 2018.
GDP for 2016-17 (RE) and 2017-18 are from Union Budget 2017-18.
Total receipts and total expenditure exclude National Calamity Contingency Fund expenditure.
1 & 2: Data are net of repayments of the Central Government (including repayments to the NSSF) and State
Governments.
1.3: Represents compensation and assignments by States to local bodies and Panchayati Raj institutions.
2: Data are net of variation in cash balances of the Central and State Governments and includes borrowing
receipts of the Central and State Governments.
Table No. 47
SDF is availed by State Governments against the collateral of Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF), Guarantee
Redemption Fund (GRF) & Auction Treasury Bills (ATBs) balances and other investments in government
securities.
WMA is advance by Reserve Bank of India to State Governments for meeting temporry cash mismatches.
OD is advanced to State Governments beyond their WMA limits.
Average amount Availed is the total accommodation (SDF/WMA/OD) availed divided by number of days for
which accommodation was extended during the month.
- : Nil.
Table No. 48
CSF and GRF are reserve funds maintained by some State Governments with the Reserve Bank of India.
ATBs include Treasury bills of 91 days, 182 days and 364 days invested by State Governments in the primary
market.
--: Not Applicable (not a member of the scheme).
The concepts and methodologies for Current Statistics are available in Comprehensive Guide for Current
Statistics of the RBI Monthly Bulletin (https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=17618)
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