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ROAD ACCIDENT ANALYSIS – A CASE STUDY

DEWAS – BHOPAL STATE HIGHWAY – 18

2018-2019
A Dissertation submitted to
Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya, Bhopal (M.P.)
Towards the partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of

Master of Engineering
In
Transportation Engineering

Guided by: Submitted by:

Prof. H. S. Goliya ANKIT GUPTA
Associate Professor 0801CE17ME28
CE-AMD

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND APPLIED MECHANICS

SHRI G.S. INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, INDORE (M.P.)
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SHRI G.S. INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE, INDORE

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND APPLIED MECHANICS
(An Autonomous institution affiliated to R.G.P.V. Bhopal)

2017-2018

CERTIFICATE

We are pleased to certify that the dissertation work submitted by Mr. ANKIT GUPTA
(0801CE17ME28) entitled “Road Accident Analysis – A case study.” Is accepted in partial
fulfilment of the degree in Master of Engineering specialization in Transportation
Engineering.

Examiner (Internal) Examiner (External)

Date: Date:
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CONTENTS

1 Abstract 4

2 Introduction 5–7

3 Literature Review 8 – 10

4 Critique 12

5 Objectives 13

6 Methodology 14 – 15

8 References 16
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ABSTRACT

The major objective of this study is to examine the number/types of vehicles involved in road
traffic accident on Dewas – Bhopal State Highway. As we know Road accidents cannot be
stopped despite providing the best possible roads and intersections, however there are ways to
reduce the impact of road accidents on road-users and the vehicles plying on the road. The dark
truth is that theirs one death every 4 minutes due to road accident in India. In 2017, a shocking
1.47 lakh people died in road accidents.
We are going studied accidental records of various police-stations,
identify the black-spots of accidents and then analysed the geometric features of those spots.
The identification of such points provides us ease to work on some section of road which is
most prone to accidents. We analysed the geometric deficiencies and they recommended ways
to reduce their affects. The findings indicated that large radii right turn
curves were more dangerous than left curves, in particular, during lane changing manoeuvres.
However sharper curves are more dangerous in both left and right curves. Moreover, motorway
carriageways with no or limited shoulders have the highest CR when compared to another
carriageway width. Proper traffic guidance and control system to guide road users ensuring safe
movement of vehicles has been recommended and some of the facilities such as pedestrian
crossings and median openings, acceleration and deceleration lanes were re-designed in order
to improve the safety of the road and minimize the accidents.
The analysis of the number and type of vehicles involved
in road traffic accident showed that private cars, buses and taxis were the types of vehicles that
are more prone to accidents. This result is not only restricting traffic flow, but also putting the
life of road user at danger. The total numbers of accidents increasing over the years, persons
killing rate is highly alarming. Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the major preventable
public health problems and is on the rise which can be attributed to increase in the number of
vehicles and lifestyle changes and risky attitudes.
This paper is intended to search for available published information which
in turn might help the policy makers as well as practitioners to make use of it which will help
in taking corrective measures for the roads and so that the number of accidents can be
minimised.
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INTRODUCTION

Road Transport is the primary mode of transport which plays an important role in conveyance
of goods and passengers and linking the centres of production, consumption and distribution. It
is also a key factor for promoting socio-economic development in terms of social, regional and
national integration. The road transportation increases year by year, but the rate of road crashes
also increases with it. India is one of the developing countries, where the rate of road crashes is
more than the critical limit. Road accidents are a human tragedy, which involve high human
suffering. They impose a huge socio-economical cost in terms of untimely deaths, injuries and
loss of potential income. The ramification of road accidents can be colossal and its negative
impact is felt not only on individuals, their health and welfare, but also on the economy.
Consequently, road safety has become an issue of national concern.
Road traffic accident (RTA(s)) is one of the major preventable public health problems (1-4) and
is on the rise which can be attributed to increase in the number of vehicles, lifestyle changes
and risky attitudes Injuries due to RTA as one of the prime causes to the ‘global burden of
diseases’ was on the 10th position in the year 2002, but according to ‘Global status report on
road safety 2013’ it is on the eighth place and expected to be at the fifth place by 2030 if trends
continue at the same pace . In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC’s) mortality due to
RTA is projected to rise by 83% provided stringent measures are not taken. The fatality rate
due to RTA in South Asia was 10.2/100,000 persons in the year 2000 which is predicted to rise
to 18.9/100,000 persons by the year 2020 (predicted to change by: 144 %). LMIC’s account for
91% of the global mortality due to RTA
although these countries have only about 50% of the world’s vehicles. RTA is defined as, ‘‘An
event that occurs on a way or street open to public traffic; resulting in one or more persons
being injured or killed, where at least one moving vehicle is involved”. “A collision between
vehicles and pedestrians, animals, and geographical or architectural obstacles can be also
termed as RTA”.
According to “National Crime Records Bureau, Ministry of Home Affairs”, RTA accounted for
about one third of all unnatural causes of accidental deaths in the year 2013. Around 443,001
RTAs were reported in the same year. Mortality due to RTA has declined by 1.2% during the
year 2013 in comparison to year 2012 (9). Globally, nearly 1.2 million people die each year
due to RTA.
Injuries account for 2.1 % of global deaths due to it. As stated by Deutsche Welle report ‘India
has the highest number of road accidents in the world’ as well as highest number of deaths due
to it. Every year 130,000 deaths are reported due to RTA in India which accounts for 6% of the
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global burden, though it has only 1% of the vehicles globally). When compared to developed
nations, the number of RTAs in India were three times higher. It has overtaken even the most
populous China.
Experts caution that the actual estimate of mortality as well as injuries due to RTA could be
much higher than what is actually reported, which could be because of underreporting. Of the
total estimated 1.4 million RTAs, only 0.4 million are recorded each year, which is even worse
in rural areas. Around 40 people, below 25 years of age, die due to RTA every hour in the
world, while in India it is 14 deaths/hour. As per World Health Organization (WHO), it is the
second most prime cause of mortality among 5-29-year olds. The deaths due to RTA in India
accounts for twice more than the deaths caused due to malaria, HIV, cholera etc. all put together.
This paper is intended to search for available published information which in turn might help
the policy makers as well as practitioners to make use of it. The information has been gathered
from papers related to RTA from various databases such as PubMed, Google scholar,
government websites to get an overview in India, for the last 15 years. conducted at Jha et al.
(22) 71% of victims of the accident were below 40 years of age.
Inadequate infrastructure: e.g. non-availability of footpath, inappropriate road markings, signals
and lack of maintenance of roads. Another factor is inappropriate road design & layout and/or
ignorance of driver, which leads to wrong way driving.
Growing number of vehicles: Risky road situations have been generated due to the growing
number of automobiles along with population growth, which leads to jamming problems in the
nation for which road infrastructures are usually not prepared to manage the heavy flow of
traffic (10).
Rescue operations: Delay in providing required medical services is one of the causes of
mortality due to RTAs.
Drunken driving and drugs: Nearly 50 % of the nations of the world lack evidence on alcohol
related deaths due to RTAs. Drunken driving has been stated as a major factor for RTAs.
Safety devices: Evidence on the usage of helmet is scarce. Properly wearing a helmet while
riding a motorbike can lessen the risk of dying by nearly 40% as well as the risk of severe
injuries by more than 70%. Wearing a seat-belt declines the probability of fatality in the person
sitting in the front-seat by 40–60% and of rear-seat passengers by between 25–75%. Using child
restraints reduces deaths by approximately 70% in infants and 54 % in toddlers. Only about
32% of the population globally have executed child restrained laws.
Distraction while driving: There are many types of distractions that can lead to impaired
driving, one of them is using mobile phones while driving. Those drivers who use phones during
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driving have four times more odds of becoming a victim of RTAs when compared to those who
do not indulge in such practice.
Speed: As the speed increases the probability of occurrence of crash as well as the degree of its
consequences also increases.
Enforcement of Laws: Less than one tenth (7%) of the countries of the world have sufficient
laws which address risk factors of RTAs such as speed, drunken driving, overloading the
vehicle (10) and use of protective devices like seat belts, child restraints and helmets. Stringent
drunk and driving laws help to protect about 70% of the population globally. Though laws on
road safety do exist in India their implementation is very weak. The execution of these laws as
per the Supreme Court is a state responsibility unfortunately, child restrained laws do not exist
in our nation.
Mode of Transport: Pedestrians and cyclists/two-wheelers account for majority of all deaths
due to RTAs. Study done by Jha et al. and Dsouza et al. reported it to be 22% and 41% for
pedestrians respectively.
Time of the day: Driving during night is riskier than day which can be attributed to fatigue
and/or alcohol consumption.
The huge number of injury and death due to road traffic accident reveals the story of global
crisis of road safety. Road collisions are the second leading cause of death for people between
the ages of 5 and 29 and third leading cause for people between 30 and 44. With the number of
vehicles rapidly rising in developing countries, this epidemic is quickly worsening in low and
middle-income countries and is on its way to becoming the third leading cause of death and
disabilities by the year 2020 (WHO 2000). The loss in road traffic accidents enormous in
economy and health related issues. Families having accident victims shatters with death and the
victims seriously injured often needs medical facilities for the rest of their life and eventually
becomes burden to their family. Road traffic injuries are burdening health care systems in
countries around the world. Low- and middle-income countries suffer from significant
percentage of preventable deaths and injuries from road collisions in these countries.
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LITERATURE REVIEW

Review of literature is important in any research work. Many researchers have carried out
research work in the area of road accidents. Some of them have analysed accident data in
different ways. Some of them Identification of Black spot zone. Some of them have developed
accident models for forecasting future accident trends. They have also proposed strategies for
road safety. In the present chapter literature review is carried out covering the different issues
related to road accident and road safety.
Yannis T.H. (2014)1 Was presented A Review of The Effect of Traffic and Weather
Characteristics on Road Safety. Despite the existence of generally mixed evidence on the effect
of traffic parameters, a few patterns can be observed. For instance, traffic flow seems to have a
non-linear relationship with accident rates, even though some studies suggest linear relationship
with accidents. Regarding weather effects, the effect of precipitation is quite consistent and
leads generally to increased accident frequency but does not seem to have a consistent effect
on severity. The impact of other weather parameters on safety, such as visibility, wind speed
and temperature are not found straightforward so far. The increasing use of real-time data not
only makes easier to identify the safety impact of traffic and weather characteristics, but most
importantly makes possible the identification of their combined effect. The more systematic use
of these real-time data may address several of the research gaps identified in this research.

Rakesh Mehar and Pradeep Kumar Agarwal (2013)2 were highlighted the deficiencies in
the present state of the art and also presents some basic concepts so that systematic approach
for formulation of a road safety improvement program in India can be developed. The study
presents basic concepts to develop an accident record system, for ranking of Safety hazardous
locations, for identification of safety improvement measures and to determine priorities of
safety measures. It is expected that this study will provide a systematic approach for
development of road safety improvement program in India and thus pave the way for improving
safety on Indian roads

E.S. Park et al (2012)3 studies the safety effect of wider edge lines was examined by analysing
crash frequency data for road segments with and without wider edge lines. The data from three
states, Kansas, Michigan, and Illinois, have been analysed. Because of different
nature of data from each state, a different statistical analysis approach was employed for each
state: an empirical Bays, before-after analysis of Kansas data, an interrupted time series design
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and generalized linear segmented regression analysis of Michigan data, and a cross sectional
analysis of Illinois data. Although it is well-known that causation is hard to establish based on
observational studies, the results from three extensive statistical analyses all point to the same
findings. The consistent findings lend support to the positive safety effects of wider edge lines
installed on rural, two-lane highways. In conclusion, this study lends scientific support to the
positive safety effects of wider edge lines installed on rural two-lane highways. Although the
magnitudes of crash reductions were somewhat different from state to state, the results point in
the same direction.

K.Meshram-H.S.Goliya (2013) were presented an analysis of accidents on small portion NH-

3 Indore to Dhamnod. The data for analysis is collected for the period of 2009 to September
2011. More accidents occurred in Manpur region by faulty road geometry. The trend of
accidents occurring in urban portion (Indore) is more than 35 % to rate of total accidents in each
year. This may due to high speeds and more vehicular traffic. In the present study area, the
frequency of fatal accidents is 2 in a week and 6for minor accidents in a week. More number
of accidents observed in 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. duration because in that time more buses are travels
between villages and city. One fatal and five casualties are occurring per km per year in the
study area. The volume of the trucks passing through study corridor is increasing by year. At
Rajendra Nagar from 2000onwards the traffic is reduced due to the construction of by passes
in that area.

Amir H. Ghods et al. (2012)5 Differential speed strategies increased the number and rate of
car-truck overtakes over the range of volumes considered in this analysis. This suggests a
negative effect on safety resulting from differential speed strategy applied to two-lane rural
highways. On a positive side DSL and MSL strategies have reduced the number of car-car
overtakes at different volumes, hence increasing safety. This latter relationship suggests a
calming effect of slower trucks on the speed of the traffic stream, which results in fewer
interactions between cars. No significant effect was observed concerning differential speed
control strategies and both average Stand PTDO. The effect on TTC was due to volume; highest
for car-car and car-truck interactions at very low volumes, decreasing to a minimum in the range
between 500vph to 800 vph and increasing slightly thereafter. This indicator suggests the
highest head-on risk is experienced in the mid volume region. The average speed of traffic
decreases in a nonlinear fashion with volume with differential speed strategies indicating a
downward shift in this relationship.
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Michael Williamson and Huaguo Zhou (2012)6 were the development of calibration factors
for crash prediction models in the new Highway Safety Manual (HSM) for rural two-lane
roadways in Illinois.
The crash prediction modes (so called Safety Performance Functions (SPF)) in the HSM were
developed using data from multiple states, therefore the models must be calibrated to account
for local factors, such as weather, roadway conditions, and drivers’ characteristics. In this study,
two calibration factors were developed for two different SPFs to give a
better prediction of crash frequencies on rural two lane roadwaysin Illinois. This study
determined the SPF that best predicts the crashes was developed specifically for rural two-lane
Two-way roadways in Illinois. It is recommended that local SPFs be developed and compared
to the HSM SPF when evaluating the safety of a roadway.

R.R. Dinu, A. Veeraragavan (2011)7 was presented Random Parameter Models for Accident
Prediction on Two-Lane Undivided Highways in India. Based on three years of accident
history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.
The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of
cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and
vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. They have concluded with a
discussion on modelling results and the limitations of the present study

STUDY AREA

State Highway 18 (SH 18) is a Highway in Central India in Madhya Pradesh. SH-18 is
connected Bhopal (MP) to Petlawad (Gujarat). It runs for a distance of 362 km.
Study area is selected from Dewas to Bhopal section of MP SH.18. It is a Four lane divided
rural highway. Length of this highway section is 154 km which includes the district Sehore.
The study area is surrounded by villages, industries, market, colleges etc. It is unsafe from
safety point of view. The main reason is local traffic has direct access to the State Highway,
which results in congestion and accidents on many points as there are many small towns
between these two places i.e. Dewas – Bhopal
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Factors responsible for injuries due to RTA

Human, vehicular and environmental factors play an important role before, at the time
and after the crash. The various factors responsible for RTAs according to the phases of
crash are depicted.
Human: Drivers fault accounts for majority of all the accidents Age and gender: About
half of the accident victims in the year 2011 were in the age group of 25 to 65 years,
followed by the age group of 15 to 24 years (30.3%). More than 50% of the casualties
as well as deaths due to RTAs were in the productive age group because these people
were expected to use the roads more (20). Of them, majority were males which can be
due to the fact that males were more involved in outdoor work when compared to
females and thus more frequently viable for RTAs. In a study conducted at Jha et al.
(22) 71% of victims of the accident were below 40 years of age.

Inadequate infrastructure: e.g. non-availability of

footpath, inappropriate road markings, signals and lack of maintenance of roads.
Another factor is inappropriate road design & layout and/or ignorance of driver, which
leads to wrong way driving. Growing number of vehicles: Risky road situations have
been generated due to the growing number of automobiles along with population
growth, which leads to jamming problems in the nation for which road infrastructures
are usually not prepared to manage the heavy flow of traffic.
Rescue operations: Delay in providing required medical services is one of the causes of
mortality due to RTAs.
Drunken driving and drugs: Nearly 50 % of the nations of the world lack evidence on
alcohol related deaths due to RTAs. Drunken driving has been stated as a major factor
for RTAs.
Safety devices: Evidence on the usage of helmet is scarce. Properly wearing a helmet
while riding a motorbike can lessen the risk of dying by nearly 40% as well as the risk
of severe injuries by more than 70%. Wearing a seat-belt declines the probability of
fatality in the person sitting in the front-seat by 40–60% and of rear-seat passengers by
between 25–75%. Using child restraints reduces deaths by approximately 70% in infants
and 54 % in toddlers. Only about 32% of the population globally have executed child
restrained laws.
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CRITIQUE

1. There is lack of population-based data on road traffic injuries in India and there is
large heterogeneity in the published data.

2. Detailed data are not available at the national or state level for crashes on National
and State Highways.

3. Currently as such no accidental study is done on this particular highway.

4. The highway was constructed around 10 years back in 2008, since then the traffic on
it increased rapidly resulting in increasing number of accidents.

5. The problem of accident is a very acute in highway transportation due to complex

flow pattern of vehicular traffic, presence of mixed traffic along with pedestrians.
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OBJECTIVES OF ACCIDENTAL STUDIES

1. To study the causes of accidents and suggest corrective measures at potential location
2. To compute the financial losses incurred
3. To support the proposed design and provide economic justification to the improvement
suggested by the traffic engineer
4. To carry out before and after studies and to demonstrate the improvement in the problem.
5. To find the black spots on the roads where maximum accidents take place
6. To extract and understand accident trend.

7. To analyse the 85th percentile speed of light commercial vehicles (LCV).

8. Finally to suggest suitable recommendations for controlling

the accidents.
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METHODOLOGY

The first step in methodology is to define problem statement; it covers the subject of work. The
next is literature review, in this step the previous years’ works on that subject are collected and
has been studied carefully. The third step is to select study area for implementing thought of
work and it should be suitable for the objective. After the selection of study area, the objectives
of work should be decided. For achieving that goal, the data collection and data analysis is
going to be carried out. Once the data analysed, on the bases of analysis results some remedial
measure for road safety is going to be suggested. Last step is to give conclusion of this complete
work done.
The bulk of the information that were used in this paper came from secondary sources, that
include number and type of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on SH – 18. Also, analysis of
variance statistics was used to test for the significance of variability in reported number/type of
vehicles involved in road traffic accident on SH-18. Analysis of variance allows us to compare
simultaneously three or more sample means in order to determine whether the differences
between the samples are significantly higher than the differences that can be observed within
each sample.
For analysing the 85th percentile speed we will first carry out the survey on over vehicles for
example we will collect the speed data of 100 free flowing vehicles over a period of two-hours
using handheld radar these speeds are then plotted and analysed to create reporting
statistics, evaluation metrics, and graphical representations of that. The speed at which
85% of the vehicles are travelling will be 85th percentile speed.
For analysing the road accident, crash to find out the accident trends and monitor them
the software that can be used is iMaap through this we can take trends and analyse
and model the accidents.
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Steps Involved in Research are as-

Define Problem Statement

Literature Review

Study Area Selection

Objective of Study

Data Collection and Analysis

Identified Black Spot

Safety Measures

Development of Model

Conclusion
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REFERENCES

1. Athanasios Theofilatos and George, Yannis National “A review of the effect of traffic
and weather characteristics on road safety”, Accident Analysis and Prevention 72
(2014) 244– 25. (2014)
2. K Meshram and H.S. Goliya “Accident Analysis on National Highway- 3 between
Indore to Dhamnod” International Journal of Application or Innovationin Engineering
& Management (IJAIEM) Volume2, Issue 7, July 2013
3. Rakesh Mehar and Pradipkumar Agarwal “systematic approach for formulation of a
road safety improvement program in India”, Procedia- Social and Behavioural Sciences
104(2013) 1038-1047, 2013.
4. E.S. Park et al., “safety effects of wider edge lines on rural, two-lane highways”,
Accident Analysis and prevention vol-48,317-325, 2012
5. Michael Williamson and Huaguo Zhou “Develop Calibration Factors for Crash
Prediction Models for Rural Two-Lane Roadways in Illinois” Procedia - Social and
Behavioural Sciences43,2012
6. Amir h. Ghods et al. “effect of car/truck differential speed limits on two-lane
highways safety operation using microscopic simulation” 2012.
7. R.R. Dinu, A. Veeraragavan “Random parameter models for accident prediction on
two-lane undivided highways in India”, Journal of safety Research 42(2011) 39-42,
2011

Websites:
https://www.researchgate.net/.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_accidents_in_India

www.academia.edu

Books:
Dr. L.R.Kadiyali “Traffic Engineering Transport Planning" Khanna Publishers
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