DOCUMENTO DE DISCUSION

DD/14/10

What we eat:
Changing patterns of food consumption
around the world

Hector Maletta
maletta_he@up.edu.pe

23 September 2014

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2503547

 ABSTRACT

This paper explores changes in the level and composition of per capita food consumption
across the world; it does not discuss intra-country inequalities in food access, nor the pre-
valence of hunger resulting from those inequalities.
The world's food output has more than trebled since 1961 whilst population only doubled,
causing a marked increase in per capita food supply. By 2011 the average human was con-
suming nearly 2900 daily kilocalories per person, up from less than 2200 in 1961; per capi-
ta protein intake had also increased significantly from 61 to 80 grams per day. Besides the-
se overall increases in food consumption, the composition of the average diet also changed.
One major finding in this regard is that per capita consumption of cereals reached a plateau
(or slightly declined) in recent decades, whilst consumption of other foods increased signi-
ficantly. All the increase in per capita dietary energy supply since 1990 reflects higher con-
sumption of non-cereal food; per capita cereal food consumption stabilised or declined. The
saturation level at which cereal food consumption stabilises seems to vary across regions,
probably due to local culture and custom.
Due to changing dietary patterns, some regions of the world have enormously increased
their consumption of fats, especially vegetable oil, contributing to a growing obesity epide-
mic. In some regions, chiefly North America, this has been compounded by a significant in-
crease in per capita consumption of sugar. But humans have also changed their diets in be-
neficial ways, consuming more pulses, fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and eggs. These
trends are present in all major regions, albeit varying across regions. Most of these trends
imply greater intake of micronutrients. More diversified diets, with increased presence of
fruits, vegetables and foods of animal origin, suggest that the micronutrient content of per
capita food supply is increasing, at the world level and for all major regions.

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 CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................ 1
DIETARY ENERGY ............................................................................................................................ 1
DIETARY ENERGY SUPPLY ............................................................................................................................. 1
SOURCES OF DIETARY ENERGY .................................................................................................................... 4
SHARE OF FAT IN DIETARY ENERGY ............................................................................................................. 4
A CHANGING DIET .......................................................................................................................... 5
OVERVIEW OF DIET CHANGES WORLDWIDE................................................................................................ 5
REGIONAL DIET VARIATION ......................................................................................................................... 6
FED UP WITH CEREALS ................................................................................................................................. 7
ANIMAL AND VEGETAL FOOD ...................................................................................................................... 11
ANIMAL AND VEGETAL FATS ....................................................................................................................... 13
A FLOOD OF VEGETABLE OIL ...................................................................................................................... 14
SWEET EMPTINESS ..................................................................................................................................... 14
FRUIT AND VEGETABLES CONSUMPTION ................................................................................................... 15
WHERE'S THE BEEF? .................................................................................................................................. 17
MILK AND EGGS .......................................................................................................................................... 18
CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 19
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
REGIONS.............................................................................................................................................. 1
FOOD SUPPLY-DEMAND ACCOUNTING .................................................................................. 1
SUPPLY-UTILISATION ACCOUNTS ................................................................................................................ 1
FOOD BALANCE SHEETS ............................................................................................................................... 3
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 5

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Introduction
During the half century 1961-2011 the world's population increased by a factor of 2.2, passing from 3.1
to 6.9 billion people, but primary food output increased by a factor of 3.3 (Maletta 2014b) and interna-
tional trade in food commodities expanded by a factor of 8.5 (Maletta 2014c). This greater availability
of food for a growing population translated into an increase in per capita food consumption, however
measured, and involved also changes in the composition of food consumption.
This larger output, more widely distributed by trade, was an important factor for progress in the world's
food security. Yet food security is not limited to ensuring that sufficient food is available, but depends
on the capacity of individuals to access food according to their needs and preferences (WFS 1996, 2009;
Maletta 2014a), and assessing this would require examining the distribution of food amongst households
and individuals. However, a large part of the overall inequality in food access depends on differences in
per capita availability across nations. For this reason, this paper is focused on trends in per capita food
consumption, first in terms of dietary energy and then in terms of specific food items and nutrients; one
major goal is to elicit major changes in average dietary composition at world level and in various world
regions. Discussion of food access would necessitate a different paper to be properly discussed; this pa-
per is only concerned with per capita consumption.
In this context, food consumption usually refers to net food supplies delivered for consumption, usually
estimated as a residual in national food balances (see the Technical Appendix for details). This approach
takes the domestic supply of each food item (domestic production, plus imports, minus exports, minus
change in stocks), and deducts non-food uses (seed, animal feed, waste, and non-food industries); the re-
sidual is an estimate of amounts delivered for human food consumption, or apparent consumption.
We review apparent food consumption trends for macronutrients, chiefly dietary energy and protein, sin-
ce consumption of micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) is not regularly monitored; we discuss sources
of dietary energy (carbohydrates, protein, fat, and alcohol), and consumption of specific foods (cereals,
sugar, tubers, fruits, vegetables, vegetable oil, meat, eggs, and dairy products). Some of these are import-
ant indicators of dietary diversity and proxies for micronutrient consumption.

Dietary energy
One major purpose of food is to provide fuel for the body to produce energy. Our cells can produce en-
ergy by burning a simple sugar (glucose); the latter is manufactured in the body on the basis of some
substances found in food (carbohydrates, protein, fat, or alcohol). The amount of dietary energy the body
can get from whatever foodstuff we eat is a crucial aspect of food consumption.
Dietary energy supply
The world daily average dietary energy supply (or apparent consumption) per person has steadily in-
creased from less than 2200 kilocalories in 1961 to nearly 2900 in 2011, as shown in Figure 1. By 1961
the world survived on a per capita amount of energy barely above normal requirements for the average
person, which are about 2100 kcal/person/day (heretofore abbreviated as kcpd). 1 Inequality between and
within countries implies that at that time a large number of people (probably half or more) inevitably

1
These needs (see FAO 2004 for details) cover energy expenditures necessary on average for people to maintain their body
weight at the midpoint of the acceptable range of weights for their height and age-sex group, whilst leading (on average) a
moderately active lifestyle; it also implies normal growth for children, and provisions for pregnancy and lactation. People can
stay healthy with somewhat less or more than this normal energy expenditure, keeping their weight within a range of accept-
able weights for their height, and performing various levels of physical activity (from light or sedentary to very active).

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consumed less than their normal needs. 2 By 2011, this had profoundly changed, after fifty years of un-
abated growth in food production and food energy consumption. The average supply of dietary energy
had increased by one third, to nearly 2900 kilocalories per day, well above average requirements.
3000

2900

2800

2700

2600

2500

2400

2300

2200

2100

2000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Figure 1. World per capita dietary energy supply (kilocalories/person/day), 1961-2011. Source: FAOSTAT.
With a world population in 2011 that is more than twice as large as in 1961, just maintaining the 1961
level of dietary energy would have implied a significant growth in food availability (multiplying global
output by a factor of 2.3, or about 1.68% per year). Attaining by 2011 a significantly higher per capita
amount of dietary energy than existed in 1961 implied, of course, a yet higher rate of cumulative agri-
cultural growth during half a century (namely 2.51% per year). However difficult such a feat may have
seemed back in the 1960s, the fact is that the world has strongly increased per capita dietary energy sup-
ply in the past half century.
The dismal situation of the early 1960s was vastly different by 2011: the world average is estimated to
have reached 2868 kcpd; even allowing for unequal distribution, this leads to far fewer people consum-
ing less than their needs (though others consume far more than required ––or advisable). Figures on dis-
tribution and access to food do confirm this idea, but the point will be discussed later: this section is
mostly restricted to per capita supplies as such, not discussing inequality of access across households
and individuals, a matter sufficiently complex as to deserve a separate treatment.
Per capita apparent consumption of dietary energy is, of course, much higher in rich countries than in
poor ones (Figure 2). Asia and Africa are below the world average, albeit gradually approaching it; LAC
is slightly above the world mean, whilst Europe and Northern America are clearly much above. As of
2011, per capita apparent consumption in Africa was 2615 kcal/person/day (kcpd), compared to 3617 in
Northern America (US and Canada). However, per capita consumption in Africa in 2011 was far above
its 1961 level (only 1990 kcpd); it was indeed similar to the world average of 1987-88 and roughly equi-
valent to the levels attained by Latin American about 1980 and by Asia in the mid-2000s. Thus Africa
seems to be advancing on the steps of other developing regions with a lag of 1-3 decades. This is further
indication of progress along the latest half century, even in regions that lag behind. Progress, of course,
should desirably be faster, but this is the way it has been occurring.
Dietary energy supply (or apparent consumption), thus, has increased in all continental regions. At the
bottom, Africa passed from around 2000 kcpd in the early 1960s and 1970s to more than 2600 in 2011.

2
Part of them were probably undernourished in the sense of consuming less than the minimum acceptable amount, thus en-
dangering health and survival, but this matter is not addressed in this paper.
2

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Asia (or more properly, Asia-Pacific), which was at the bottom with some 1800 kcpd in the early 1960s,
overtook Africa around 1980, and by 2011 was at 2762 kcpd, approaching the world average. Since Asia
overtook Africa in the early 1980s, both have been increasing their calories at a similar rate, with Africa
keeping itself about 150-200 kcal below Asia, i.e. lagging Asia by about one decade; in this regard, Afri-
ca was in 1991 approximately where Asia had been ten years earlier, and the same was true in 2001 and
2011. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), on the other hand, progressed in lockstep with the world
average from about 2250 to nearly 3000 daily kilocalories per capita.

3700

3200

2700

2200

1700
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia
LAC North America Europe

Figure 2. Dietary energy supply (daily kilocalories per person) by regions, 1961-2011. Source: FAOSTAT.
People in the richer parts of the world consumed already around 3000 kcal per day in 1961, and have
significantly moved up since that period: Northern America overtook Europe in the mid-1980s, and after
2000 it was (at nearly 3700 kcpd) in the midst of a severe obesity epidemic. It is, however, encouraging
that the figure for Northern America appears to have peaked by 2002-2004 and has slightly declined aft-
erwards. Europe as a whole was approaching 3400 kcpd in the late 1980s, but suffered a significant set-
back after 1990 linked to the collapse of the Soviet bloc, causing a fall of some 500 kcpd in Eastern Eu-
rope and 200 kcpd for the all-Europe average; a slow recovery started by the mid-1990s. By 2011 Euro-
pe was back at pre-1990 levels (3314 kcpd for the entire region). The decline experienced in the former-
ly central-planning bloc of Eastern European countries was never suffered by people in the rest of Euro-
pe: this sub-region's supply of dietary energy has been about 3400-3500 kcpd since the mid-1980s and
above 3500 kcpd in 2011.
As the precedent paragraph suggests, there is considerable variation within continental regions, as exem-
plified by the gap between Eastern Europe and the rest of Europe. Within Asia there are also great varia-
tions, with rich countries like Japan on one extreme and poor ones like Afghanistan or Bangladesh in the
other. Even among the two bigger countries, China progressed more than India during recent decades, in
which both countries reformed their economic systems and got strong economic growth. Per capita con-
sumption in some Latin American countries like Mexico or Argentina are at the developed-country level
of over 3000 kcpd while others (Bolivia, Haiti, and some Central American countries) are still around
2000-2200 kcpd. There is also significant sub-national variation (e.g. between poorer Northern and rich-
er Southern Brazil). In Africa there is a considerable gap between the better-fed North and the Sub-Saha-

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ran region. Throughout this paper these intra-regional or sub-national differences go mostly unmention-
ed for the sake of brevity, but their existence should be remembered.
Sources of dietary energy
The general increase in dietary energy supply was accompanied by changes in the chemical sources of
that energy. Most human body cells generate energy, and they do it by burning glucose, a simple sugar;
the body can extract or manufacture glucose from some carbohydrates (sugars and starch) and also from
protein, fat and alcohol. As shown in Table 1, total energy supply grew since 1961 to 2011 by 674 kcpd
or 31%, but the main contribution for that rise came from increased consumption of fat (which increased
by 74%, from 428 to 744 kcal).
The percentage increase in carbohydrates was much lower (18%); that of protein (31%) and alcohol
(30%) was instead proportionate to the general increase of dietary energy. About two thirds of carbohy-
drates come from cereals (929 kcpd in 1961; 1124 in 1986; and 1115 in 2011); the contribution from ce-
reals increased in 1961-86 but then stagnated or slightly decreased in 1985-2011. The share of carbohy-
drates in total dietary energy decreased from 67% in 1961 to 60% in 2011, whilst the share of fat went
up, from 19.5% to 26.0%. Fats supplied by 2011 a fourth of total energy, but contributed nearly a half of
the increase in calories since 1961 (adding 317 kcpd or 47% of the total increase of 674 kcpd).
Table 1. Chemical sources of dietary energy, worldwide, 1961-2011 (FAOSTAT food balance sheets)
kcal/person/day Percentage composition 1961-2011
Change Percent % of total
1961 1986 2011 1961 1985 2011 in kcal change change
Total 2194 2590 2868 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 674 31% 100.0%
Carbohydrates a 1468 1663 1734 66.9% 64.2% 60.4% 266 18% 39.5%
From cereals, excl. beer 929 1124 1115 42.3% 43.4% 38.9% 187 20% 27.7%
From starchy roots 161 118 129 7.3% 4.5% 4.5% -32 -20% -4.7%
From sugar and sweeteners b 192 237 229 8.7% 9.1% 8.0% 37 20% 5.5%
c
From other foods 186 184 260 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 74 40% 10.9%
Protein 246 280 321 11.2% 10.8% 11.2% 75 31% 11.2%
Fat 428 581 744 19.5% 22.4% 26.0% 317 74% 47.0%
Alcohol d 53 67 69 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 16 30% 2.4%
(a) Energy from carbohydrates (total, and also for cereals and starchy roots): obtained by difference (total calories
from each food group, minus the calorie equivalent of their fat and protein content, minus alcohol).
(b) Total energy supply from sugar crops, honey, and other natural sweeteners.
(c) Carbohydrates in pulses, fruit, vegetables, nuts, and other foods. Obtained by difference (total carbohydrates
minus carbohydrates in cereals, starchy roots, and sugar).
(d) Total calories from alcoholic beverages. Includes a very small amount of energy (less than 1 kcal/person/ day)
from residual carbohydrates and protein found in some fermented alcoholic beverages (e.g. beer)
Protein and fat: grams/person/day converted into energy at 4 and 9 kcal/gram respectively.
Some totals may not exactly add up due to rounding.
Share of fat in dietary energy
At world level the share of fats in total dietary energy has increased from 19.5% in 1961 to 26% in 2011.
An increasing per capita supply of dietary energy with an ever growing share of fat and a decreasing
share of carbohydrates are all major trends in world food consumption during recent decades. Increased
consumption of fat represents 47% of the total increase in dietary energy supply. The average human
had a daily fat supply of 47.5 grams in 1961, providing 428 kcal; this increased to 82.3 grams by 2011,
supplying 744 kcpd. All we shall see later, most of this increase comes from fats of vegetal, rather than
animal, origin, and chiefly in the form of vegetable oil.
Fat is a necessary food element, not only as a store of potential energy but also for other purposes. But
fat should not be consumed or bodily stored in excess; people consuming more than the required amount
4

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of fat are bound to accumulate excess fat in their bodies and ultimately become overweight or obese, en-
tailing various health risks. Although the required amount of fat may vary across individuals by sex, age
group, body shape, ethnic group, or other reasons, it is generally recognised that at least 15% of dietary
energy intake should be in the form of fat, and that a diet providing more than 30% of energy in the form
of fat may be in dangerous territory. Unfortunately, large sections of the human population are exceed-
ing this upper limit. As shown in Figure 3, North America and Europe are well above: by 2011 Euro-
peans were consuming on average 34% of their dietary energy in the form of fat, and North Americans
about 40%, and both percentages were (albeit slowly) still growing. Latin America and Asia are also in-
creasing the fat percentage of their dietary energy. The only exception is Africa, which keeps since the
1960s a nearly stable share of about 20%, coinciding with the average world level of half a century back.
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Asia Africa LAC Europe North America

Figure 3. Percent contribution of fats to total dietary energy, by region (1961-2011). FAOSTAT.
These regional changes in the amount of dietary energy (Figure 2) and in the percentage of fat energy
(Figure 3) involved changes in the average diet: quantities consumed of various foods have generally
increased, but at different rates; the diet composition has changed. The next section briefly reviews the
main changes in the composition of food consumption.

A changing diet
Overview of diet changes worldwide
There were significant changes since 1961 in the composition of food consumption, as shown at Table 2.
The first finding is that whereas total dietary energy increased, the consumption of staple foods has ten-
ded to stall, most notably in the more recent decades of this past half century. Thus consumption of ce-
reals moderately increased at the world level from 1961 to 1986, but it slightly decreased in more recent
years; per capita consumption of tubers is lately below its 1961 levels, whilst 'empty calories' from vege-
table oil are clearly up (from 4.6 to 11.6 kilograms per person/year (kgpyr), an increase of 148%).
Such large increase in vegetable oil may have negative implications, but other changes are more condu-
cive to good health. Large increases occurred in the consumption of fruit, vegetables, and foods of ani-
mal origin. Per capita consumption of fruit and vegetables has doubled, as nearly did meat and eggs; in
particular, pork and fish doubled and poultry meat increased fivefold (from 2.8 to 14.2 kgpyr), whilst
meat of cattle, sheep, goat and other animals remained stable.
The stability of per capita beef consumption is particularly interesting, since a widespread belief is that it
is increasing. Total beef consumption is indeed increasing, due to population growth, but it is not increa-
5

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sing in per capita terms. The fastest-growing item in per capita terms is poultry (+399% since 1961),
chiefly chicken, followed by vegetable oil (+148%) and by fruit, vegetables, pork, fish/seafood and eggs
(all around +100%). Sugar and other natural sweeteners have increased by a mere 21%, mostly before
1986, and calories from alcohol have also grown in a moderate proportion (30% in 50 years).
Table 2. World per capita consumption of various foods, 1961-1986-2011 (FAOSTAT)
kg/person/year % change kg/person/year % change
1961 1986 2011 1961-2011 1961 1986 2011 1961-2011
Cereals (exc.beer) 127.0 148.1 144.9 14% Vegetable oils 4.6 8.6 11.5 148%
Maize 11.0 14.2 17.5 58% Fruits 37.3 48.9 72.9 95%
Rice (milled equiv.) 37.6 51.8 53.1 41% Vegetables 63.2 75.7 133.6 111%
Wheat 54.5 68.6 64.4 18% Meats 22.9 31.5 41.5 82%
Other cereals 23.9 13.5 9.9 -58% Beef/veal 9.3 10.5 9.2 -1%
Starchy roots (tubers) 76.1 55.9 62.6 -18% Pork 7.9 12.0 15.2 92%
Potatoes 35.1 26.8 34.3 -2% Poultry/fowl 2.8 6.6 14.2 399%
Sweet potatoes 25.9 14.2 7.8 -70% Mutton/goat 1.9 1.6 1.9 -1%
Cassava 12.1 12.1 14.4 19% Other meats 0.9 0.7 1.0 11%
Other tubers 3.0 2.8 6.0 104% Offals 1.5 1.8 2.2 43%
Sugar & sweeteners 19.5 24.2 23.7 21% Fish & seafood 8.9 12.8 18.6 108%
Pulses 9.3 6.3 6.7 -28% Eggs 4.5 6.1 8.8 95%
Alcohol * 7.6 9.6 9.9 30% Milk (whole equiv.) 77.1 80.5 90.6 17%
(*) Amount of alcohol in alcoholic beverages (fermented or distilled); it may correspond to various amounts of liquid bev-
erage depending on alcoholic content. Based on kcal from alcoholic beverages in FAOSTAT food balances, converted into
alcohol at 7 kcal per gram of alcohol, ignoring trace amounts of carbohydrates and protein found in some fermented alcoho-
lic beverages). Cereals include rice in milled-equivalent terms, and exclude the amounts of cereal used for making beer. Su-
gar and sweeteners includes honey and other natural sweeteners. 'Milk (whole equivalent)' is the sum of three FAOSTAT
items: 'Milk excluding butter', 'Butter and ghee', and 'Cream'. Source: FAOSTAT.
Regional diet variation
Per capita consumption of various foods, and its changes over time, varies considerably across regions
(and even more across individual countries). Table 3 provides a summary for major foods and food
groups at the endpoints of the half century (1961 and 2011) and at a midpoint year (1986).
Many peculiarities and changes may be pointed out across the various regions and food groups. One of
the most important is the fact that cereal food consumption tends to grow less than other foods, and be-
comes a less significant source of dietary energy in more developed regions. Another major trend is the
rise in consumption of vegetable oils, and also in food products of animal origin (meats, eggs, milk).
Consumption of fruit and vegetables also expanded; the world level in 2011 was equivalent to a daily
supply of 202 grams of fruit and 183 grams of vegetables for the world's average person. Some of these
changes over time, and variation across regions, are briefly discussed below.
Table 3. Per capita consumption of major food groups by region, 1961-2009 (kg/person/year)
World Northern America Europe
1961 1986 2011 1961 1986 2011 1961 1986 2011
Cereals 127 148.1 144.9 86.8 95.4 105.3 167.4 140.9 135.0
Pulses 9.3 6.3 6.7 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.5 2.7 2.5
Tubers 76.1 55.9 62.6 55.9 60.5 62.0 115.2 93.1 82.5
Sugar & sweeteners 19.5 24.2 23.7 51.5 57.8 59.4 32.5 41.4 39.1
Vegetable oils 4.6 8.6 11.5 11.5 22.7 30.2 7.9 13.4 17.1
Fruits 37.3 48.9 72.9 78.4 120.4 100.3 49.4 72.7 87.6
Vegetables 63.2 75.7 133.6 92.4 108.2 113.2 85.4 109.0 126.8
Meat & offals 24.4 33.3 43.7 92.4 108.2 113.2 85.4 109.0 126.8
Fish & seafood 8.9 12.8 18.6 13.2 19.0 21.7 13.9 22.5 19.9
Eggs 4.5 6.1 8.8 17.4 14.1 13.7 9.0 14.1 12.2
Milk, whole 77.1 80.5 90.6 269.1 255.0 255.9 177.5 224.2 219.8

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 Africa Asia LAC
1961 1986 2011 1961 1986 2011 1961 1986 2011
Cereals 118.6 134.5 138.3 120.6 161.1 154.9 107.7 122.3 123.9
Pulses 7.6 7.2 10.0 11.9 6.7 6.4 13.8 11.0 10.7
Tubers 90.5 87.2 120.3 62.3 39.7 45.6 68.1 54.9 52.3
Sugar & sweeteners 9.9 14.8 15.1 10.5 15.6 17.2 33.9 44.3 41.4
Vegetable oil 4.8 7.4 8.3 2.6 5.9 9.3 4.6 10.9 14.0
Fruits 40.8 48.0 57.9 21.9 31.3 66.0 77.1 83.7 110.6
Vegetables 39.6 48.8 61.6 59.2 74.0 166.6 34.4 40.4 53.5
Meat & offals 39.6 48.8 61.6 59.2 74.0 166.6 34.4 40.4 53.5
Fish & seafood 4.2 7.3 9.9 7.8 11.2 21.5 4.9 8.7 9.7
Eggs 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 3.8 9.1 3.5 7.2 10.6
Milk, whole 30.9 37.8 44.9 24.4 32.6 57.8 72.0 95.6 125.3
Source: FAOSTAT. See caption of Table 2
Fed up with cereals
Cereals are the basic foodstuff of mankind since the invention of agriculture in the Neolithic. In poor
countries cereals often provide more than one half of dietary energy. As per capita income grows, how-
ever, diets diversify and per capita cereal food consumption tends to stall and eventually decline. At any
given time, some (typically poorer) countries may be still increasing their per capita food consumption
of cereals whilst other countries are already in the declining phase. The balance of the two sets of coun-
tries resulted in an increase in world per capita food consumption of cereals until the mid-1980s, after
which it largely stabilised. World per capita cereal food consumption has not increased in the latest three
decades: it moderately increased from about 128 kilograms/person/year (kgpyr) in 1961 to around 150 in
1984, where it stayed until 1999; then it slightly decreased in 2000-2002, and was about 147 kgpyr from
2002 to 2011 (Figure 4).
160

150
kg/person/year

140

130

120

110

100
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 4. World per capita food consumption of cereals, 1961-2011 (kg/person/year).

Source: FAOSTAT. Excludes cereal used for beer. Rice is included in milled equivalent terms.
Thus in spite of ever growing cereal output (Maletta 2014b) and increasing consumption of dietary en-
ergy (Figure 1), per capita cereal food consumption appears to have reached a plateau or saturation level,
at least at the world level.
This overall picture is generally similar in all major regions though with significant differences in the ti-
ming of cereal consumption saturation (Figure 5), in relation to each region's history and level of devel-
opment. Europe and North America have in fact been experiencing a decline in cereal food consump-
tion. Europe was declining since 1961 up to the early 1990s, when it stabilised around 135/140 kgpyr.
North America, instead, increased cereal food consumption per head up to the early 1990s, and only then
started a decline. A similar course was followed by Asia, where per capita consumption of cereal food

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increased from 1961 to 1981, and then declined in a gradual manner up to 2011. Latin America, like
Asia, increased per capita cereal food consumption until the early 1980s, and then stabilised. Africa per
capita cereal consumption increased until the mid-1990s but has stalled since: it passed from 126 kgpyr
in 1961 to 149 in 1996 and grew only marginally to 150 kgpyr in 2009-2011.
Food consumption of cereals is not directly correlated to levels of income, economic development, or
per capita supply of dietary energy. Africa (the poorest region in terms of income, dietary energy and
other socioeconomic indicators) has been lately consuming more cereal per capita than Europe, despite
the great disparity between their dietary energy supplies or between their levels of economic develop-
ment. On the other extreme, North America (the region with the highest level of dietary energy supply)
kept throughout the past half century the lowest level of per capita cereal food consumption among these
world regions These facts clearly reveal, perhaps surprisingly, that a high level of cereal food consump-
tion is not per se an indicator of living standards or overall food security, nor can be used as a good pro-
xy for total dietary energy supply.
180

160

140

120

100

80

60
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World N.America LAC Europe Africa Asia

Figure 5. Apparent food consumption of cereals, by region, 1961-2011 (kg/year per capita). Source: FAOSTAT.
Some cereal is used for non-food scopes (e.g. fodder or biofuels), and these non-food uses are widely re-
garded as increasing; it is thus perhaps surprising that the share of cereal output that is devoted to food
has no long-term tendency to increase or decrease: it was about 49% in the early 1960s; it decreased to
42% in the mid-1970s, then gradually returned to levels around 48-50% in the 1980s and 1990s, and fell
again to about 42% in the late 2000s. Even if the use of coarse grains (chiefly maize) as animal feed or
as feedstock for biofuels has increased, the use of other cereals (like barley or millet) for non-food pur-
poses (chiefly fodder) has tended to decline. Thus the stagnation or decline of cereal food consumption
cannot be attributed to an increasing use of cereals for other purposes. It is entirely due to consumer
preference for other foods to complement or replace cereals. These preferences bear some relation to
economic development (hence the timing of cereal food saturation) but also vary with local culture and
custom, causing persistent differences between regions of similar degree of development such as Europe
and North America.
The rise in total dietary energy supply in the two more recent decades came almost exclusively from
non-cereal food (Figure 6). From 1961 up to 1993 the contributions of cereal and non-cereal dietary en-

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ergy were almost the same, and progressed at an equal pace; from the early 1990s onwards, cereal food
energy stagnated and slightly declined, whilst dietary energy from other foods continued rising in an ac-
celerated manner. Progress in world per capita dietary energy supply since 1990 is entirely attribut-
able to non-cereal food.
Change in dietary energy consumption, therefore, cannot be inferred from changes in the amount of diet-
ary energy supplied by cereals. The latter has been stagnant for three decades, whilst the former is rapid-
ly increasing, especially since the early 1990s.
This pattern occurs also at major regions, albeit varying with the regional level and growth of cereal
consumption and total energy supply. In Asia and Africa cereals provide more energy than other foods
(although the latter overcame the former in Africa after the turn of the century). The opposite happens in
Latin America, Europe and North America: cereal calories provide less than one half of the total. In all
cases per capita dietary energy from cereals has grown more slowly than other sources of dietary energy,
and in some cases declined, as shown in the following set of charts.
1600

1500
kcal/person/day

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Cereals excl. beer Other foods

Figure 6. World dietary energy supply from cereals (excluding beer) and from other foods,
1961-2009, in kcal/person/day
Cereal and non-cereal dietary energy by region, 1961-2011 (FAOSTAT)
World Africa
1600 1400
1500 1300
1400 1200
1300 1100

1200 1000

1100
900
800
1000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Cereals exc beer Other foods Cereals exc beer Other foods

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 Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
1600 2000

1400 1800

1600
1200
1400
1000
1200
800 1000

600 800
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Cereals exc beer Other foods Cereals exc beer Other foods

North America Europe

3500 2500

3000
2000
2500

2000 1500

1500 1000
1000
500
500

0 0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Cereals exc beer Other foods Cereals exc beer Other foods

In the case of Europe (which throughout this paper includes also the Asian parts of the former USSR),
the collapse of the Eastern bloc caused a steep reduction in non-cereal and total dietary energy that is
clearly perceptible after 1990, from which that region has gradually recovered since, but cereals did not
decline in the wake of the bloc's meltdown. The dip in Europe's dietary energy supply is concentrated in
non-cereal food, and it entirely belongs in Eastern Europe. In the rest of Europe, instead, cereal energy
was relatively stable in the 900-950 kcpd range; energy from other foods rose from 2000 to 2500 kcpd in
1961-1985, and remained stable afterwards. In Eastern Europe cereal food consumption has been steadi-
ly declining, before and after the transition of 1990-92, gradually converging with the rest of that contin-
ent. The contrast between Eastern Europe and the rest of Europe is shown in the following charts.
Cereal and non-cereal dietary energy, Eastern Europe and the rest of Europe, 1961-2011 (FAOSTAT)
Eastern Europe* Rest of Europe
2500 3000

2000 2500

2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0 0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Cereals Other food Cereals Other food

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In all regions the relative share of cereals in total dietary energy has shown a declining tendency in re-
cent decades (Figure 7). In Asia and Africa the decline started about 1990, in Latin America around
1980; the European share has been falling since 1961, from 40% to 31%, whilst in North America the
share of cereals had declined much before and is probably at a minimum: it hovered within a narrow
range (about 20-24%) all along the past half century.
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

World Asia Africa LAC Europe N. America

Figure 7. Share of cereals (excluding beer) in total dietary energy, by region, 1961-2011. Source: FAOSTAT.
The behaviour of Europe in this respect is also better understood if Eastern Europe is distinguished from
the rest of that region (Figure 8): the temporary rise in the share of cereals in the early 1990s occurred
solely in the Eastern part, as its population reduced consumption of non-cereal items as a result of the
collapse of centrally planned economies. In the rest of Europe the share of cereals in total dietary energy
did not show any such discontinuity; after its slight decline in 1961-1990, the share of cereals in the rest
of Europe was quite stable in recent years, as it was in North America.
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Europe Eastern Europe Rest of Europe

Figure 8. Share of cereals (excluding beer) in total dietary energy, in Eastern Europe and the rest of Europe,
1961-2011. Source: FAOSTAT. Eastern Europe includes the whole territory of the former USSR (even the Asian
parts) and the various Asian countries formed upon the USSR dissolution.
Animal and vegetal food
One major trend in the past quarter century has been an increase in the share of dietary energy obtained
from food of animal origin. At world level (Figure 9) this share hovered about 15.5% from 1961 up to
the 1980s, but has been steadily increasing ever since, reaching 17.7% by 2010-2011. The change in the
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share is not actually large (just about two percentage points), but it is evident that a new trend in this
regard has affirmed itself during recent decades, signifying an important shift in diet composition.
18%

17%

16%

15%

14%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 9. Share of foods of animal origin in total dietary energy supply, worldwide, 1961-2011.
Source: FAOSTAT.
The worldwide increase in the share of animal-origin calories, however, is mostly explained by Asia
(and to a lesser extent Latin America), as shown in Figure 10. Asia and LAC are the areas that tended
to increase their share of dietary energy of animal origin, from 6% to 16% in Asia and from 16% to 21%
in LAC, whilst in Africa it remained essentially unchanged at about 7-8%. The more developed regions
actually tended to reduce their relative reliance on animal-origin food: the share of animal-origin energy
has declined steadily since 1961 in Northern America, from 35% to 27%; Europe's share rose from 25%
in 1961 to 30% in 1989-90, and then joined the declining trend of Northern America to 27% in 2011.
40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

World Africa Asia LAC North America Europe

Figure 10. Share of food of animal origin in total dietary energy supply, by region, 1961-2011 (FAOSTAT).
The share of energy of animal origin is thus higher in rich countries, but tends to decline over time as
those countries become more affluent, whilst it tends to rise as developing countries increase their stand-
ards of living. Overall, the animal origin share seems to follow an inverted U curve when analysed in
terms of levels of economic development, being very low at low levels of income, rising with income
until peaking at some intermediate (though relatively high) development level, and finally declining as
countries become more affluent. In the case of Europe the recent decline has been compounded by the

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sharp drop of non-staple food supply in Eastern Europe following the collapse of the central-planning
economies around 1990, which have since rebounded tending to recover the levels attained before 1990.
On the other hand, the behaviour of the percentage share of energy coming from food of animal origin is
not to be confused with the absolute trend of animal-origin energy. Since total dietary energy has been
generally on the rise, dietary energy of animal origin (at the world scale) has also tended to rise: it con-
tributed 338 kcal/person/day in 1961, rising to 507 in 2011 (an increase of 50%).
Animal and vegetal fats
A rising consumption of foods of animal origin is often associated with a rise in the consumption of fats
of animal origin. This is indeed so: per capita consumption of fats of animal origin has indeed increased
in absolute terms. But consumption of animal-based fats has increased less than consumption of vegetal-
origin fats (chiefly vegetable oil), as shown in Figure 11. As a rather intriguing consequence, the share
of animal fat (relative to total fat consumption) has been decreasing (Figure 12), despite a rising share of
foods of animal origin in total dietary energy supply.
50

45

40

35

30

25

20
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Animal fats Vegetal fats

Figure 11. World per capita consumption of vegetal and animal fats, 1961-2011 (grams/person/day).
Source: FAOSTAT.

54%

52%

50%

48%

46%

44%

42%

40%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 12. Share of fats of animal origin in world total consumption of fats, 1961-2011. Source: FAOSTAT.
Data by regions (not shown) indicate that the only region with an increase in the share of animal fat in
total fat consumption is Asia, where it has risen from about 30% to about 45%. In all other regions (and
at world level) the tendency is the opposite; even the huge size of Asia is unable to reverse this worldwi-
de tendency, where the share of animal lipids clearly declines, mainly because of widespread and increa-
sing consumption of vegetable oil.
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 A flood of vegetable oil
Per capita consumption of vegetable oil has greatly increased between 1961 and 2011, from 4.7 to 11.7
kgpyr. It is highest in North America, where consumption passed from 11.5 to 30.2 kgpyr in that period,
well above the nearest competitor (Europe, which grew from 8 to 18). Consumption also grew rapidly in
developing regions: Latin America (5 to 13 kgpyr), Asia (2.5 to 9.3), and Africa (5 to 9).
35

30

25
kg/pe rson/year

20

15

10

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia LAC Europe North America

Figure 13. Consumption of vegetable oil by region, 1961-2011 (kg/person/year). FAOSTAT.

Increased consumption of vegetable oils is matched by rapid worldwide growth of oil-bearing crops
such as soya, sunflower, oil palm, and others. As we have seen before, fats of vegetal origin (chiefly ve-
getable oil) have largely replaced animal fats (especially lard). On the whole animal fats also increased,
to a lesser degree than vegetable oil, chiefly led by increasing consumption of meat and dairy products.
Sweet emptiness
Besides vegetable oil, another form of 'empty calories' that has been increasing, though much more mod-
erately, is sugar. Its increase is more localised geographically: as shown in Figure 14, North America is
the region with the highest level of per capita sugar consumption, and the one where it increased more,
though it peaked about the turn of the century and has been decreasing in later years. At about 60 kilos
per person/ year, the North American consumption of sugar is well above the rest of the world, but it is
the only region where sugar consumption has risen significantly. There is no general trend towards more
sugary food.
Other regions increased (very moderately) their per capita consumption from 1961 up to the early 1980s,
but have remained mostly stable since. Europe, at a similar level of economic development than North
America, consumes in fact much less, on a par with Latin America, and both regions have not increased
sugar consumption in recent decades (except for the European recovery after the setback of the early
1990s caused by the collapse of the Eastern bloc). Asia and Africa remain relatively stable, well below
the world average, and also without any rising tendency in recent decades. The world level of sugar
consumption per person/year did increase moderately in the 1960s and early 1970s (from about 20 to
about 24 kgpyr) but did not change much since the late 1970s. Thus the regions are grouped in three
groups: Asia and Africa at the bottom, consuming about 17 kgpyr; Europe and LAC in the middle at
about 40 kgpyr, and North America at the top with 60 kgpyr (after peaking at about 70 at the turn of the
century). This pattern is not correlated with level or pace of economic development, but seems to res-
pond to regional (mostly cultural) differences.
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Increases in consumption of vegetable oils (observed almost everywhere with the notable exception of
Africa) and sugar (which only in North America rose until the turn of the century and remains very high)
are the main single food factors in the ongoing epidemic of overweight and obesity afflicting a growing
share of the world's population. Of the two, vegetable oil is by far the most important.
80

70

60
kg/person/year

50

40

30

20

10

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia LAC North America Europe

Figure 14. Consumption of sugar by regions, 1961-2011 (kg/person/year).

Source: FAOSTAT. Includes honey and other natural sweeteners.
Fruit and vegetables consumption
Beyond a lack (or an excess) of dietary energy, the most pressing matter about human nutrition is getting
a regular supply of micronutrients, i.e. vitamins and minerals. Some of these are contained in cereals and
other staple foods like tubers or pulses, but most come in fruit and vegetables, or are obtained indirectly
from food of animal origin like milk, meat, or eggs.
Consumption of fruit and vegetables has consistently gone up during the past half century, in all regions
of the world (Figure 15). It grew most spectacularly in Asia, though it actually went initially down there
(from 81 to 73 kgpyr) during the 1960s, and then rapidly and steadily grew from a minimum of 73 kgpyr
in 1970 to 233 kgpyr in 2011, surpassing all other regions including Europe and North America; most of
the Asian growth in this respect (as in others) occurred after 1990. In other regions there was also signi-
ficant growth in per capita consumption of fruit and vegetables but at more moderate rates. In the North
America, long at the top in this regard, the amount per capita peaked in the late 1990s but has slightly
declined in later years, meeting by 2011 the level of Europe, somewhat below the level of Asia.
The general increase in consumption of fruits and vegetables, and especially the rapid increase in Asia,
portend a general improvement in the intake of micronutrients (vitamins and minerals), a major and oft-
en neglected dimension of hunger. There is probably much 'hidden hunger', but the fast growth of fruit
and vegetable consumption indicates a tendency towards its gradual reduction.

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 300

250
kg/person/year
200

150

100

50

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia LAC Europe N. America

Figure 15. Per capita consumption of fruit (excl. wine) and vegetables (kgpyr), 1961-2011, by region (FAOSTAT).
The superiority of Asia reflects especially its strong growth in consumption of vegetables, where it is
lately well above Europe and North America; on the opposite side, Latin America is especially weak in
this regard: its per capita consumption of vegetables has been consistently below all other regions inclu-
ding Africa along this entire half century (Figure 16).
180
160
140
kg/person/year

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia LAC Europe N. America

Figure 16. Per capita consumption of vegetables, in kgpyr, 1961-2011, by region (FAOSTAT).
On the other hand, consumption of fruit (leaving aside the grapes used for making wine) behaves in a
different way. Asia increased it, but much less than in the case of vegetables. Its consumption has also
gone down in North America, but not only in the most recent years: it shows a declining tendency since
peaking in 1987, and has been recently surpassed by Europe where fruit consumption has been slowly
on the rise. In contrast with its low take on vegetables, Latin America and the Caribbean are stronger
consumers of fruit, well above the world average. In spite of their modest growth, both Asia and Africa
remain below the world mean level, though Asia recently surpassed Africa (Figure 17).

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 140

120

100
kg/person/year
80

60

40

20

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
World Africa Asia LAC Europe N. America

Figure 17. Per capita consumption of fruit (excl. wine) in kgpyr, 1961-2011, by region (FAOSTAT).
Where's the beef?
Besides fruit and vegetables, other main sources of micronutrients are foods of animal origin, where
minerals and vitamins have already been metabolised by animals. Iron, calcium, various vitamins and
other essential elements for a healthy diet are found in meat, milk or eggs. This section and the next
examine its levels of consumption throughout the world.
Per capita consumption of meats (broadly defined, including also offals as well as fish and seafood)
steadily increased from 1961 to 2011 (Figure 18). Increases were concentrated in pork, poultry, and fish
and seafood. Per capita consumption of beef and veal has declined after it peaked in the mid-1970s.
Consumption of the various items changed at different speeds. Between 1961 and 2011 consumption of
beef and veal passed from 9.4 kgpyr in 1961 to 10.8 in 1969, only to return to its initial value in the foll-
owing years (9.4 kgpyr in 2011). Mutton, goat and other meats also stayed almost constant at about 2.8
kgpyr. Pork nearly doubled, from 8 to 15.5 kgpyr. Poultry increased by a factor of five, from 2.9 to 14.4
kgpyr; offals grew modestly, from 1.6 to 2.2 kgpyr; and fish and seafood doubled from 9 to 18.9 kgpyr.
Total consumption of these products strongly increased, nearly doubling from 33.7 to 63.3 kgpyr.
The stagnant and even declining consumption of cattle beef is an interesting bit of data. Consumption of
bovine meat is often thought of as a correlate of higher income; the stagnation in per capita consumption
of beef and veal during a period characterised by strong growth of income and food consumption, and its
steady (albeit slight) decline since the mid-1970s, are slightly surprising and rather counter-intuitive de-
velopments in the changing composition of the world's diet: almost all the growth in meat consumption
since 1961 did not involve cattle, and two thirds of the increase are accounted for by poultry and fish.

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 70

60

kg/person/year 50

40

30

20

10

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Beef / veal Mutton/goat/other Pork Poultry Offals Fish and seafood

Figure 18. World per capita consumption of various meats, offals, fish and seafood (kgpyr), 1961-2011 (FAOSTAT)

Milk and eggs

Per capita consumption of milk kept an oscillating pattern from 1961 to the early nineties, fluctuating
mostly between 76 and 80 kgpyr with a slow long-term rising tendency as each peak in the oscillation
went higher than the one before. This pattern was broken since 1993, when milk consumption started a
period of steady growth, reaching 92 kgpyr in 2011 without further oscillation (Figure 19).
95

90
kg/person/year

85

80

75

70
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 19. World per capita consumption of milk, 1961-2011 (kg/person/year). Source: FAOSTAT. Milk expressed in
terms of whole milk, and estimated as the sum of three FAOSTAT Food Supply items: 'Milk excluding butter',
'Butter and ghee', and 'Cream'. More than 90% of this sum corresponds to 'Milk excluding butter'.
Regional variation in consumption of milk (see Table 3) is partly explained by ethnic differences in lac-
tose tolerance. Unprocessed milk is tolerated by adults mainly in Northern European and North Ameri-
can countries, as well as in some areas of Eastern Africa and India; most people in Asia and Africa do
not have the capacity to metabolise milk except when lactose have been already metabolised by bacterial
fermentation (i.e. in the form of cheese or similar processed products).
The amount of eggs consumed yearly per person increased all the time, but growth visibly accelerated
since the early1990s. Worldwide per capita consumption of eggs nearly doubled, from 4.5 kgpyr in 1961
to 8.8 kgpyr in 2011 (Figure 20). This is parallel to the steady rise in per capita consumption of poultry
meat, which in the same period grew even faster, passing from 2.8 to 14.2 kgpyr.

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 10

kg/person/year
6

0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 20. World per capita consumption of eggs, 1961-2011 (kg/person/year). Source: FAOSTAT.

Conclusions
This rapid overview of food consumption patterns and regional variation in average diets suggests
several overarching conclusions:
• Humans are increasing their average food consumption and improving its dietary diversity, both
worldwide and in the each of the various regions.
• The main undesirable tendency is towards increasing consumption of fat, chiefly vegetable oils, a
tendency that is most severe in developed countries but also observable in developing ones (with the
significant exception of Africa).
• Per capita consumption of cereal food is minimum in North America and maximum in Asia and
Africa. Latin America and Europe are (currently) in the middle (Europe was at the top in the 1960s
and 1970s but has declined since). Thus the amount of cereal in the average diet is not associated
with the level of economic development in any obvious way.
• Per capita consumption of cereal food tends to reach a saturation level. At the world scale all additio-
nal calories since 1990 have come from non-cereal food, and average per capita consumption of ce-
real food has slightly declined. Europe was declining its per capita consumption of food cereal since
before 1961 and tended to stabilise since the 1980s; North America peaked around 1980 as did Asia
and Latin America; Africa's cereal consumption stalled since the 1990s but is still (very slowly) in-
creasing. The level of cereal consumption at which saturation occurs seems to differ across regions,
probably reflecting variation in cultural preferences.
• Meat consumption (broadly defined) is on the rise. However, consumption of beef and veal is gener-
ally stable with a small tendency to decrease. The increase is strongly concentrated on poultry, pork,
and products of fishery (i.e. fish and seafood).
• Consumption of milk and eggs is also on the rise, as is the consumption of fruit and vegetables. The
latter two groups increased especially fast in Asia.
• Sugar consumption per capita has not been significantly on the rise in most regions, at least since the
1980s, except in North America where it has strongly increased and is very high; in that region the
level of sugar per capita consumption apparently peaked around the turn of the century and showed a
slightly declining trend in more recent years.
• Vegetable oil consumption is on the rise; whilst fats of animal origin also increase, the growth in ve-
getable oil consumption is much faster, and this is particularly notable in North America (and also
Europe) where it has reached very high levels. Africa is the only region not showing a significant ri-
se in the consumption of vegetable oil along the past half century. Asia and Latin America do grow

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 in this respect but within moderate levels. Thus, unlike the case of cereals, the level and increase of
per capita vegetable oil consumption seems directly associated with economic development.
• Consumption of fruit and vegetables is on the rise at the world scale. The most rapid increase has
been in Asia, especially in vegetables; Asia consumes nor more than any other region. Europe and
Asia consume more vegetables than fruit, whereas Latin America consumes more fruit; North
America and Asia consume both in a more balanced way.

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 TECHNICAL APPENDIX
Regions
Our analysis is mostly based on the FAOSTAT database. The FAOSTAT lowest units of aggregation are
individual nations and territories; aggregation of all national data defines the world total, and subtotals
for various continental and sub-continental regions. Continental regions are Africa, the Americas, Asia,
Europe and Oceania. Examples of sub-continental regions are South America, North Africa, or Polyne-
sia. FAOSTAT data were regrouped for this study into five regions: Africa; Asia/Pacific; Latin America
and the Caribbean (LAC); Northern America; and Europe. This required some rearrangement of FAO-
STAT data:
• We divided FAOSTAT's 'Americas' region into two sub-regions: 'Northern America' (US and Cana-
da), and 'Latin America and the Caribbean' (LAC); the latter comprises the FAOSTAT sub-regions
'Central America' (which includes Mexico), 'Caribbean' and 'South America').
• FAOSTAT regions 'Oceania' and 'Asia' are merged here, due to Oceania's close relationship with
Asia and its relatively small size in terms of population and food production or consumption. 'Asia' in
this study thus means 'Asia/ Pacific' though it is most frequently called 'Asia' for the sake of brevity.
• The whole territory of the former USSR, even the areas technically located in Asia, was counted until
1991 as part of Europe. The Russian Federation (including its Asian parts) is still counted in Europe
as well as the Western splinters of the former USSR (Ukraine, Belarus and the three Baltic states).
However, the Asian splinters of the former USSR (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyr-
gyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) were counted in Europe until 1991, as parts of the
whole USSR, but are classified in Asia since 1992. To ensure comparability over time, in this study
those Asian countries are included in Europe (and detracted from Asia). Thus 'Europe' in our study
includes not only the Asian parts of Russia, but also the USSR spinoffs in Central and Western Asia.
Food supply-demand accounting
The aggregate amount of food available and consumed, either worldwide or in a particular country or
region, is usually expressed by means of certain accounting conventions embodied in supply-utilisation
accounts and food balance sheets.
These are ex post accounting identities that necessarily hold. For instance, at any given country the total
supply of a given food must necessarily equal all uses of that food (including waste), just as supply must
always equal effective or realised demand. Conventions usually applied in food supply-demand account-
ing are reviewed in this section. The central analytical framework for any food product is the supply-uti-
lisation account (SUA). A derived instrument of analysis is the food balance sheet (FBS) which summa-
rises the SUAs of all food products (FAO 2001).
By being ex post they simply record the realised flows of production and utilisation of food, and do not
contain predictions of microeconomic decisions about production or use that would be made by produ-
cers and consumers on the basis of individual preferences or cost-benefit calculations. By being des-
criptive, they quantify actual flows of production, trade or consumption, without any normative impli-
cation. In particular, they do not involve norms about how much or what kind of food is required to sup-
ply necessary nutrients or to maintain good health: the figures simply summarise what is actually produ-
ced, traded or consumed. The results may always be compared to normative requirements in order to
assess any possible deficit, but that is not part of food supply-demand accounting as such.
Supply-utilisation accounts
Within the boundaries of a given country, sub-national region, community, or household, and in a given
period, food becomes available in three different ways: it can be (a) produced internally during the same

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period, (b) acquired from outside sources, or (c) drawn from pre-existing carryover stocks. Once made
available in some of these ways, food can be used (or wasted) in various forms: it may be (a) consumed
as human food, in raw or processed form; (b) fed to animals; (c) lost or wasted; (d) stored away for futu-
re use; or (e) moved out of the boundaries of the unit considered (e.g. exported). This gives rise to the
notion of an aggregate food budget, comparing availability and utilisation of food products, also called
supply-utilisation account (SUA) or commodity balance. Such SUAs or balances may be estimated also
for non-food products such as wool or tobacco (see for instance FAO 2003b). The SUA is a flow measu-
re, representing the amount of a product made available or used during a given period (usually a year).
The annual SUA of a given commodity i (e.g. wheat), expressed in physical terms (tonnes) and common-
ly computed at the national level for a given year, is expressed by the following ex post identity:
Supply-Utilisation Account (SUA) for a given product, period and country
Domestic supply of product i = Domestic utilisation of product i
DSijt = DUijt
Soijt + Pijt + Mijt – Xijt = Fijt + Uijt + Scijt
The domestic supply DSijt of a specific product i (e.g. wheat), in a certain period t (normally a year) and
country j is the sum of the opening stocks of that commodity (Soijt) plus domestic production during the
period (Pijt), plus imports (Mijt), minus exports (Xijt). Domestic utilisation (or effective domestic de-
mand) DUijt at the same country and for the same product and year is the sum of the amount available
for human food consumption (Fijt) plus the amounts allocated to other uses (Uijt), plus any final or clo-
sing stocks (Scijt). Other uses (Uijt) include all non-food uses of the product, i.e. its use as seed, animal
feed, and input for non-food industries (e.g. biofuels), plus waste or losses. For some purposes these
non-food uses may be more explicitly distinguished, e.g. to analyse food waste, but on other situations
they may be considered as a whole amount to be detracted from gross supply in order to get an estimate
of food effectively available for human consumption.
Availability for human food consumption in FAOSTAT SUAs reflects apparent food consumption, i.e.
amounts of food products delivered to consuming units, chiefly households but also other feeding places
(restaurants, hospitals, schools, barracks, jails, etc.), which are for this purpose equated to households.
The SUA formula takes account of post-harvest waste and losses, but only 'up to the household gate', i.e.
during the marketing and processing chain: see for instance FAOSTAT's Frequently Asked Questions
(http://faostat.fao.org/site/565/default.aspx, question 7): 'Consumption in the Food Balance Sheets refers
to consumption at the household gate'. In the same vein, FAO's methodology for estimating undernour-
ishment is based on the daily dietary-energy supply (DES) at the household level: 'the daily per person
DES refers to food acquired by (or available to) the households rather than the actual food intake of the
individual household members' (FAO 2008:9).
Thus, apparent consumption includes food waste occurring within households or within other consump-
tion units such as restaurants or hospitals. Such waste may include food decaying while held in house-
hold storage, food lost to vermin, kitchen and plate leftovers, food used for pet feeding, etc. There are
some estimates of household food waste, but they are not as yet incorporated into FAO food balance
sheets. For a given estimate of apparent consumption, actual food intake by individuals is thus likely to
be somewhat lower on account of household waste. F in the formula above is thus a measure of food
available to households, i.e. food the household has access to, as measured 'at the household gate', albeit
not necessarily consumed in its entirety by household members. It is variously called 'food supply' or
'apparent consumption', and is often computed as a residual once the other quantities are estimated em-
pirically. Thus the apparent consumption of a given food product i for country j at year t is:
Fijt = Soijt + Pijt + Mijt – Xijt – Uijt – Scijt

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Instead of estimating it as a residual, direct estimates of Fi based on household surveys are sometimes
used, but such surveys (often based on verbal recall or on household record-keeping in a particular day
or week) are known to underestimate actual consumption (FAO 2003a).
All figures in the SUAs are annual flows during period t, except as regards opening and closing stocks.
Obviously, the closing stocks of year t equal the opening stocks of year t+1. In practice, stock change is
the relevant flow variable, and the formula, as usually given, replaces both initial and final stocks by a
single flow variable (S) representing stock change:
Sijt = Scijt – Soijt
Likewise, foreign trade may be also simplified in a similar manner, replacing Mijt and Xijt by net exports
or trade balance for each product, denoted here by Tijt:
Tijt = X ijt – M ijt
In terms of this treatment of trade and stocks, the previous formula for Fi becomes:
Fijt = Pijt – Tijt – Uijt – Sijt
The above equation is in fact an accounting identity representing the ex post demand-supply balance of a
given commodity. It may refer to any level of aggregation: the world, world regions, countries, sub-na-
tional regions, and local communities. An analogous identity holds also at the level of individual house-
holds: P would stand for household food production, if any, e.g. output from a family farm or kitchen
garden, whilst M and X would respectively stand for food entering or leaving the household (including
purchases and sales, and also transfers and donations). In the same vein, stock change S at the household
level would refer to changes in the contents of the household's pantry.
At the world level the trade balance of each commodity (Ti) is in principle (or theoretically) zero, since
world exports must equal world imports (except for statistical discrepancy). Instead, the trade balance of
a product for a single nation (or household) should not in principle be (and is usually not) zero; the two
trade flows (M and X) are important when the definition is applied to specific countries. Besides, though
in principle the world's trade balance should be zero, empirical data on total world exports do not usually
match total world imports due to various sources of statistical discrepancy (smuggling, varying account-
ing principles applied for free zones or for re-exporting, etc.). See Supplementary Information of Maletta
2014c for a discussion.
Total supply in given period (usually a year) for a given geographical area (country, region, world) may
be divided by the corresponding population to estimate per capita supply, usually presented in terms of
physical yearly quantity of each product (kg/person/year) or in terms of its contents of protein and fat (in
grams/person/day) and dietary energy (kilocalories/person/day). FAO SUAs refer to calendar years, but
the original information provided by countries usually refers to the agricultural year, variously defined
across countries (e.g. July 1 to June 30, or April 1 to March 31); FAO uses information on the growing
season for each crop in order to estimate production per calendar year.
SUAs estimate the total and per capita amount of food available for human consumption, but not its
(possibly unequal) distribution across the population. Distribution among households can be gauged in
household consumption or expenditure surveys, or estimated by other means. As SUAs and household
surveys estimate the amounts of food available for consumption at the household gate, they do not re-
veal the intra-household distribution of food among household members. Household consumption or
expenditure surveys seldom investigate actual intake of food by individual members.
Food balance sheets
FAOSTAT contains separate SUAs for each product (by country and year) and also annual comprehen-
sive food balance sheets covering all food products in a given year and for a given country or region.
Food balance sheets are computed, for each particular food, in physical terms (usually in tonnes), and
are not valued or aggregated in economic terms. Physical quantities cannot be aggregated, except for
3

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similar products (e.g. cereals). However, food balance sheets include aggregate estimates of daily per
capita supply of fat, protein and dietary energy.
Food balance sheets, like SUAs, are often expressed in terms of primary commodities (e.g. wheat); im-
ports of processed products (e.g. flour or pasta) are converted into the amount of the primary commodity
or commodities that went into their production, by application of some conversion coefficients; thus im-
ported wheat flour is converted into wheat grain equivalent, and imported powder milk into fluid milk.
Sometimes a processed product contains more than one primary product; for example, imported cookies
may be converted into appropriate amounts of wheat, butter, and sugar (see FAO 2001, the FAO hand-
book on food balance sheets).
A typical food balance sheet includes one line per product, and columns for domestic production, trade
flows, stock change, domestic availability (P-X+M-S), losses or waste, use as feed or seed, other non-
food uses, and food supply, all flows expressed in tonnes per year. The food supply of each food item
(e.g. wheat, green peas, or beef) is also calculated in per capita terms (kg/person/year) and converted
into the corresponding daily amounts of energy, protein or fat according to food composition tables.
Estimates of per capita availability of major nutrients, such as protein and fat are given in daily grams
per person, and dietary energy in kcal/person/day.
Calories and joules: How dietary energy is measured
Dietary energy may be alternatively measured in calories or joules. A kilocalorie is defined as the amount of energy re-
quired at sea level to heat one litre of pure water by one degree Celsius (more precisely from 14.5°C to 15.5°C). One kilo-
calorie (which is frequently called a ‘calorie’ in the context of food) equals 1000 'chemical' or 'small' calories, which have
the same definition but referred to a millilitre of water (a volume of one cubic centimetre). However, in common parlance
about food, kilocalories are often called 'calories' for short. This study discusses dietary energy in terms of kilocalories
(abbreviated as kcal) because they are the most commonly used unit in this context, but the international unit of energy is
the joule, and it is recommended (FAO 2004) that joules should be used also for food, gradually replacing calories.
A joule is defined in terms of the international unit of force, the newton, which is the force required to accelerate a mass
of one Kg by one metre in one second. A joule is the work performed by a force of one newton to displace its point of ap-
plication by one metre in the direction of that force. One kcal = 4.184 kilojoules (kJ), and one kJ = 0.239 kcal. The esti-
mated dietary energy content of a particular food item is based on the energy the body can extract from its contents of car-
bohydrates, fat, protein and ethylic alcohol, the only substances the human body can use as sources of energy; these sub-
stances provide energy according to the Atwater coefficients (approximately 4 kcal/gram for carbohydrates and protein, 7
for alcohol, and 9 for fat). For details see FAO 2003a, FAO 2004, and Shetty 2005.
FAO food balance sheets do not provide estimates for vitamins and minerals, and also fail to provide an
explicit account of the supply of carbohydrates, but the latter can be estimated by difference, deducting
from total dietary energy the energy contained in protein (4 kcal per gram), fat (9 kcal per gram), and
alcoholic beverages (as indicated in the respective line of the FBS) at 7 kcal per gram. The energy pro-
vided by carbohydrates, once estimated, can be converted into carbohydrate quantity at a rate of 4 kcal
per gram. Daily per capita amounts of dietary energy, protein, and fat are aggregated in the first few li-
nes of the FBS, for all food items and also for major subsets such as vegetal and animal products.
Food aid and ex-ante food balances. Humanitarian food aid may or may not be counted as part of ag-
gregate food availability, depending on the purpose of the analysis. Normal ex post SUAs count food aid
as part of trade flows, but food aid is often excluded in ex-ante or prospective food balances. These pro-
spective balances aim at estimating whether the expected food supply will be sufficient to meet expected
demand in the short term (e.g. over the current or next agricultural year). If the goal is measuring the au-
tonomous capacity of the reference unit (nation, region, community) to have enough food, or determin-
ing how much food aid would be needed, then food aid should not be included in food supply. In ex-ante
SUAs, usually restricted to cereals or other staple foods, terms are arranged differently, isolating food
aid needs as an expected uncovered gap of commodity i for country j and year t, denoted as Geijt:
Geijt = Soijt + Peijt + Meijt – Xeijt – Ueijt – Fhijt – Scijt

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Geijt refers to the expected gap of commodity i in the coming season, to be covered by food aid; Soijt
stands for the opening stocks of commodity i; Phijt is the expected level of production; Fhijt is the expect-
ed habitual level of food supply of i (defined as habitual per capita supply in normal years, multiplied by
expected population of the target period); Ueijt is the expected amount to be devoted to other uses (inclu-
ding losses); Meijt and Xeijt are the expected commercial trade flows, perhaps including 'structural' or 'pro-
gramme' food aid that is regularly received but not related to the current emergency; and Scijt is the desir-
ed or planned level of closing stocks at the end of the period envisaged. Methodological details can be
found in the FAO-WFP guidelines for crop and food supply assessment missions (FAO/WFP 2009).
The present study is not concerned with ex-ante food balances, intended to determine food aid needs.
We restrict our analysis to ex post SUAs and food balances, showing actual (realised) availability and
apparent consumption. FAO ex-post SUAs (commodity balances) and food balance sheets, included in
the FAOSTAT database, do include food aid as an integral part of trade flows (special FAOSTAT data
are also available on food aid flows). Unlike ex-ante or prospective balances, ex-post SUAs are identi-
ties, which are always balanced by definition: ex-post total supply equals ex-post total utilisation, with-
out any 'uncovered gap'.

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