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Conditional Prob

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated as the probability of both events occurring divided by the probability of the first event. The multiplication rule states that for independent events, the probability they both occur is the product of their individual probabilities, while for dependent events it is the probability of the first event multiplied by the conditional probability of the second given the first. Examples show calculating conditional probabilities and the probability of events occurring.

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Najib Hamdan
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262 views

Conditional Prob

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated as the probability of both events occurring divided by the probability of the first event. The multiplication rule states that for independent events, the probability they both occur is the product of their individual probabilities, while for dependent events it is the probability of the first event multiplied by the conditional probability of the second given the first. Examples show calculating conditional probabilities and the probability of events occurring.

Uploaded by

Najib Hamdan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY
WHAT IS CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY?
Is the probability of an event occurring,
given that another event has already
occurred. The conditional probability of
event B occurring, given that event A has
occurred, is denoted by P(B/A) and is read
as “ prob B, given A”.
P A  B 
P( B A) 
P  A
Marginal probability

 Is
the prob that a single event E will
occur regardless of any other
event.

𝑛(𝐸)
 P(E )=
𝑛(𝑆)
Independent events

Event A and B are independent events only if, the


occurrence of event B is not affected by the
occurrences of the event A, where P(B\A) = P(B)

OR

The occurrence of event A is not affected by the


occurrence of event B, where P(A\B) = P(A)
The Multiplication rule

If AA and BB are two independent events in a probabilitiy experiment, then the


probability that both events occur simultaneously is:

P(A and B) = P(A)⋅P(B)


In case of dependent events , the probability that both events occur
simultaneously is:

P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B | A)

(The notation P(B | A)P(B | A) means "the probability of BB , given that AA has


happened.")
If A and B are two events where
P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0, then

P A  B  P A  B 
P( A B)  P( B A) 
P B  P  A
P(A∩B) = P(B) x P(A/B)

P(B∩A)= P(A) x P(B/A)


Example 17

The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs


on time is P(D) = 0.83, the probability that it arrives on
time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs
and arrives on time is P(D∩A) = 0.78.

Find the probability that a regularly scheduled flight:

A. arrives on time given that it has departed on time


B. Departs on time given that it arrived on time
Answer

a. b.
P A  D  P  D  A
P( A / D )  P ( D / A) 
P D  P  A
0.78 0.78
 
0.83 0.82
 0.94  0.95
Example 18

 In Ali’s school, 15% of the students failed Mathematics, 25% of


the students failed English, and 10% of the students failed both
Mathematics and English
 A. If Ali failed English, find the probability that he will fail
mathematics
 B. If Ali failed Mathematics, find the probability that he will fail
English
 C. What is the probability that Ali failed either Mathematics or
English –(non mutual exclusive)
Answer

a. b.
P E  M  P M  E 
P( E / M )  P( M / E ) 
P M  P E 
0.10 0.10
 
0.15 0.25
 0.67  0 .4

c. PE  M   PE   PM   PE  M 


 (0.15  0.25) - 0.1
 0.4 - 0.1
 0.3

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