UK Electricity Scenarios for 2050

Jim Watson

November 2003

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 41

 UK Electricity
Scenarios for 2050

Dr. Jim Watson

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
and
SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research
Freeman Centre
University of Sussex
Brighton BN1 9QE

Email: w.j.watson@sussex.ac.uk

Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 41

November 2003

1
Summary

The recent energy White Paper included a commitment to a 60% reduction in UK carbon
emissions by 2050. To achieve this reduction will require radical changes to energy supply
and demand. Many of the most important changes are likely to affect the UK electricity
system. A decarbonised electricity system will require large contributions from renewable and
other low carbon energy sources (e.g. fuel cells, micro CHP and possibly nuclear). It will also
need to facilitate significant amounts of electricity storage technologies, and substantial
reductions in demand. At the same time, it is essential that the operational security of the
electricity system be maintained.

This paper builds on the work of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP)
report: Energy – The Changing Climate. The RCEP report includes four scenarios that
explore options for a 60% reduction in UK carbon emissions by 2050. The paper elaborates
these scenarios, and applies them to the UK electricity system. The paper establishes
electricity generating plant capacities, load factors and annual outputs for each scenario. It
also compares these outputs with electricity demand figures from the RCEP report.

The analysis in this paper shows that the RCEP scenarios imply a radically different
electricity system to the one we have today. In all scenarios, the system is more decentralised
with more generating capacity and a greater contribution from renewable energy sources. At
the same time, electricity demand has been held at 1998 levels or reduced by up to a third.
The scenarios include large variations in the capacities and types of generating technology
that will be required to meet this demand. At one end of the spectrum, scenario 1 includes
four times as much generating capacity as the UK has today, with substantial investments in
nuclear, renewable and fossil fuel power stations. At the other, scenario 4 includes a modest
capacity increase, most of which will be met by renewables, coupled with a 33% reduction in
electricity demand.

The next phase of the Tyndall Centre’s work on electricity system security includes some
detailed modelling work that builds on the scenarios that have been elaborated in this paper.
This modelling will assess the operational security implications of these scenarios on a
seasonal, daily and hourly basis. It will be complemented by economic and regulatory
analysis to develop regulatory incentives that will support the development of secure
sustainable electricity systems.

2
1 Introduction

The recent energy White Paper (DTI, 2003) included a commitment to a 60% reduction in UK
carbon emissions by 2050. To achieve this reduction will require radical changes to energy
supply and demand. Many of the most important changes are likely to affect the UK
electricity system. A decarbonised electricity system will require large contributions from
renewable and other low carbon energy sources (e.g. fuel cells, micro CHP and possibly
nuclear). It will also need to facilitate significant amounts of electricity storage technologies,
and substantial reductions in demand. At the same time, it is essential that the operational
security of the electricity system be maintained.

The purpose of this working paper is to establish a set of scenarios for the UK electricity
system in 2050, principally for the Tyndall Centre project: Security of Decarbonised
Electricity Systems. The scenarios will be used in this project to help investigate how the
operational security of a decarbonised UK power system can be managed and maintained.
The paper builds on four scenarios developed by the Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution (RCEP), all of which include a 60% reduction in UK carbon dioxide emissions. The
methodology behind the scenarios and the detailed outputs are set out in Appendix E of the
RCEP report, Energy – the Changing Climate (RCEP, 2000).

It is important to be aware that the RCEP scenarios differ from many other recent UK energy
scenario exercises. For example, those developed by the government’s Strategy Unit for its
energy policy review (DTI, 2003) are not designed to meet a specific emissions reduction
target. Instead, they set out a framework for exploring different socio-economic futures, and
analysing these to see what consequences they have for the energy system and the
environment.

The four RCEP scenarios were developed using a relatively simple set of guidelines. To
achieve a 60% carbon emissions reduction, each scenario included a different mix of energy
supply technologies and different assumptions about reductions in energy demand across four
kinds of end-use: electricity, low grade heat, high grade heat and transport. These scenarios
can be summarised as follows:

• Scenario 1: No increase on 1998 energy demand by 2050. Energy supplied by a

combination of renewables and either nuclear power stations or large fossil fuel
power stations at which carbon dioxide is recovered and disposed of.
• Scenario 2: Demand reductions, including a 50% reduction in low grade heat demand
and a 25% reduction for other kinds of end-use. Energy supplied by renewables, with
no nuclear power stations or routine use of large fossil fuel power stations.
• Scenario 3: Demand reductions, including a 50% reduction in low grade heat demand
and a 25% reduction for other kinds of end-use. Energy supplied by a combination of
renewables and either nuclear power stations or large fossil fuel power stations at
which carbon dioxide is recovered and disposed of.
• Scenario 4: Very large demand reductions, including a 66% reduction in low grade
heat demand and a 33% reduction for other kinds of end-use. Energy supplied by
renewables with no nuclear power stations or routine use of large fossil fuel power
stations.

3
2 RCEP Scenario Data

From these simple outlines, the RCEP developed mixes of energy supply technologies for
2050. These are summarised in Table 1. The data in Table 1 are presented using an unusual
measure – the annual average rate of energy supply in GW. This is used for all forms of
energy supply including electricity, heat and transport fuels. The RCEP states that this
measure is more useful for their analysis than more common measures (e.g. TWh and million
tonnes of oil equivalent, MTOE).

The annual average rate is calculated by multiplying the maximum rate (for example, the
capacity of an electricity generating plant) by a load factor. Similarly, the output of a plant
during a year is derived by multiplying the annual average rate by 8760 (the number of hours
in a year).

Energy Source 1998 Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4

On-shore wind 0.10 6.5 3.3 0.2 3.3
Off-shore wind 11.4 11.4 11.4 5.7
Solar PV 10.0 5.0 0.5 0.5
Wave 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Tidal stream 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Tidal barrage 2.2 2.2 0.0 2.2
Total intermittent renewables 34.1 25.9 16.1 15.7

Hydro existing 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59

Hydro new small scale 0.02 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Energy crops 10.2 10.2 1.8 1.8
Agricultural & forestry waste 0.04 5.7 5.7 5.7 1.2
Municipal solid waste 0.15 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0
Total renewable sources 52.8 44.6 24.5 19.5

Nuclear power baseload 11.4 52 0 19 0

Fossil fuels 266 106 106 106 106

Final Energy Consumption 205 132 132 109

Table 1: Output from Energy Sources in 2050 under four RCEP Scenarios (Annual Average
Rate, GW). Nuclear power stations are interchangeable with fossil-fuel power stations with
carbon capture and sequestration. Fossil fuel figures are for all end uses including electricity,
transport and heat [Source: RCEP, 2000]

4
3 Electricity Generation Capacities

Since the data in Table 1 are expressed using the unusual ‘annual average rate’ measure, they
are not in a suitable form for the analysis of future electricity system security. It is therefore
necessary to extract from this data the capacities (in GWe) and outputs (in TWh) of electricity
generating technologies under each scenario. To calculate the capacities of each electricity
generating technology, the data in Table 1 were used together with additional information
provided by the RCEP about the numbers and types of plants required. This information is
reproduced below as Table 2.

Electricity Source Capacity of Number of units

units (MW) Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4
On-shore wind 1.5 10,100 5,000 360 5,020
Off-shore wind 1.5 18,000 17,700 18,000 8,800
Solar PV (GW peak) 0.004 15,000,000 7,500,000 750,000 750,000
Wave 1 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500
Tidal stream 1 500 500 500 500
Tidal barrage 8600 1 1 0 1
Hydro new small scale 0.1 4,500 4,500 4,500 2,200
Energy crops 1-10 290-2,900 290-2,900 42-420 42-420
Agricultural & forestry waste 0.5-10 53-1,050 53-1,050 53-1,050 34-688
Muni. solid waste/landfill gas 8-60 3-20 3-20 3-20 0
Nuclear power baseload 1200 46 0 19 0
Fossil fuel (for back up) 40 1,000 760 475 460
Fossil fuel (for peak demand) 400 120 70 65 55
Micro-CHP 0.002 0 1,700,000 1,800,000 2,400,000

Table 2: Numbers of Generating Plant in Four RCEP Scenarios. Nuclear power stations are
interchangeable with fossil-fuel power stations with carbon capture and sequestration
[Source: Calculations from data in RCEP, 2000]

To arrive at capacity figures for each technology, judgements had to be made in some cases
about likely load factors. This is because ranges of plant sizes and capacities were sometimes
given by the RCEP report instead of a single average figure. For medium and large scale
CHP, a load factor of 0.6 was used since this is the current average for UK CHP plants. For
micro-CHP, an initial load factor of 0.28 was taken from equipment supplier data (Watson,
2003). It is likely that the use of these scenarios within the Tyndall Centre’s work will require
some adjustment to these load factors so that the supply and demand for heat can be matched.

For some other technologies, the RCEP figures imply slightly different load factors for the
same technology in each scenario. A summary of load factors is given in Table 3, and the
resulting generating plant capacities for all technologies in GWe are shown in Table 4.

5
 Electricity Source Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4
On-shore wind 0.43 0.44 0.37 0.44
Off-shore wind 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.43
Solar PV (GW peak) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Wave 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Tidal stream 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Tidal barrage 0.26 0.26 - 0.26
Hydro existing (incl. pumped storage) 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
Hydro new small scale 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.91
Energy crops 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Agricultural & forestry waste 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Municipal solid waste/landfill gas 0.60 0.60 - -
Nuclear power baseload 0.94 - 0.83 -
Fossil fuel (for back up) 0.29 0.31 0.39 0.41
Fossil fuel (for peak demand) 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.07
Micro-CHP - 0.28 0.28 0.28

Table 3: Load Factors of UK Generating Plant Implied by Four RCEP Scenarios. Nuclear
power stations are interchangeable with fossil-fuel power stations with carbon capture and
sequestration [Source: Calculations from data in RCEP, 2000 and DTI, 1999]

Electricity Source 1998 Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4

On-shore wind 0.14 15.15 7.50 0.54 7.53
Off-shore wind 0.00 27.00 26.55 27.00 13.20
Solar PV (GW peak) 0.00 60 30.00 3.00 3.00
Wave 0.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
Tidal stream 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Tidal barrage 0.00 8.60 8.60 0.00 8.60
Hydro existing (incl. pumped storage) 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26
Hydro new small scale 0.00 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.22
Energy crops 0.00 7.72 7.72 1.37 1.37
Agricultural & forestry waste 0.08 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.85
Municipal solid waste/landfill gas 0.47 1.33 1.33 0.00 0.00
Nuclear power baseload 13.00 55.20 0.00 22.80 0.00
Fossil fuel (for back up) 55.10 40.00 30.40 19.00 18.40
Fossil fuel (for peak demand) (all) 48.00 28.00 26.00 22.00
Micro-CHP 0.00 0.00 3.40 3.60 4.80

Total 73.05 279.71 160.21 120.02 92.23

Table 4: Capacity of UK Generating Plant Implied by Four RCEP Scenarios (GW). Nuclear
power stations are interchangeable with fossil-fuel power stations with carbon capture and
sequestration [Source: Calculations from data in RCEP, 2000 and DTI, 1999]

6
4 Electricity Generated by Each Technology

Using the data in Tables 2 to 4, it is now possible to determine how much electricity
generation will be required from each technology under each scenario. Data for generation in
TWh are presented in Table 5.

Source 1998 Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4

On-shore wind 0.89 56.94 28.91 1.75 28.91
Off-shore wind 0 99.86 99.86 99.86 49.93
Solar PV 0 87.60 43.80 4.38 4.38
Wave 0 32.85 32.85 32.85 32.85
Tidal stream 0 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19
Tidal barrage 0 19.27 19.27 0.00 19.27
Hydro existing (incl. pumped storage) 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85
Hydro new small scale 0 2.63 2.63 2.63 1.75
Energy crops 0 40.56 40.56 7.18 7.18
Agricultural & forestry waste 0.32 21.02 21.02 21.02 4.47
Municipal solid waste/landfill gas 2.92 7.01 7.01 0 0
Nuclear power baseload 100.14 455.52 0 166.44 0
Fossil fuel (for back up) 101.61 83.22 65.70 65.70
247.14 (all)
Fossil fuel (for peak demand) 20.15 20.15 13.14 13.14
Micro-CHP 0 0 8.34 8.83 11.77

Total 358.25 954.07 408.32 424.00 236.62

Table 5: Electricity Generation Implied by Four RCEP Scenarios (TWh). Nuclear power
stations are interchangeable with fossil-fuel power stations with carbon capture and
sequestration [Source: Calculations from data in RCEP, 2000 and DTI, 1999]

7
5 Relating Electricity Supply to Electricity Demand

Having established electricity generating plant outputs and capacities from the four RCEP
scenarios, it is also important to understand what the scenarios say about electricity demand.
As with energy supply, demand figures given in the RCEP report are stated as annual average
rates. However, there is sufficient supporting information to be able to extract electricity
demand figures from these.

As the RCEP report states, these demand figures were established using simple rules. For
scenario 1, it was assumed that demand in 2050 would remain the same as 1998. For
scenarios 2 and 3, a 25% reduction from the 1998 level was assumed. For scenario 4, a 33%
reduction from the 1998 level was assumed. Electricity supply and demand figures for each
scenario in TWh are stated in Table 6.

1998 Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4

Electricity Demand 280.32 280.32 210.24 210.24 183.96
Electricity Supply 358.25 954.07 408.32 424.00 236.62

Difference 77.93 673.75 198.08 213.76 52.66

Table 6: Electricity Supply and Demand Implied by Four RCEP Scenarios (TWh).
[Source: Calculations from data in RCEP, 2000 and DTI, 1999]

These demand figures require some further explanation when they are compared to the figures
for electricity supply from Table 3. In some cases, electricity supply is much larger than
electricity demand. Some system losses are to be expected. For example, the difference
between supply and demand for 1998 can be explained by consumption of electricity within
power stations (e.g. for pumped storage) and losses in the transmission and distribution
system.

Losses cannot explain the very large differences in the supply and demand figures. The
disparity is particularly large for scenario 1. To find out why this is the case, it is necessary to
understand the process of supply-demand matching that was undertaken by the RCEP. This
process included the following priorities for the use of fossil fuels in each scenario:

• The first priority is transport;

• The second priority is the generation of electricity to provide backup for intermittent
renewables and extra power at peak periods;
• The third priority is the provision of high grade heat; and
• The fourth priority for any fossil fuel remaining is the provision of low grade heat.

It is clear from this that a lot of the electricity generated is not consumed as electricity in some
scenarios. Instead it is used to make up for shortfalls in fossil fuel availability for high and
low-grade heat. The main technology for this is electrically powered heat pumps. In scenario
1, the RCEP states that most of the demand for low grade heat and over a third of the demand
for high grade heat are met in this way.

8
6 Conclusions

This paper has built on the work of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution to
develop some alternative scenarios for the UK electricity system in 2050. Each scenario is
designed to reduce national carbon emissions by 60% from current levels by this date. The
paper has established electricity generating plant capacities, load factors and annual outputs
for each scenario. It has also compared these outputs with electricity demand figures from the
RCEP report.

The analysis has shown that the RCEP scenarios imply a radically different electricity system
to the one we have today. In all scenarios, the system is more decentralised with more
generating capacity and a greater contribution from renewable energy sources. At the same
time, electricity demand has been held at 1998 levels or reduced by up to a third. Some key
features of the scenarios include:

• A shift in the role of fossil fuel electricity generation – away from baseload or mid-
range duty, and towards backup for intermittent renewables;
• In two scenarios, a significant expansion of nuclear power (or fossil fuel stations with
carbon sequestration);
• Significant action to halt or reverse growth in energy demand, which implies large
improvements in energy efficiency;
• In some scenarios, very large mismatches between electricity generation and
electricity demand. This is explained by the use of electricity to provide substantial
amounts of high and low grade heat; and
• No link between the expanded use of renewables to generate electricity and the
production of hydrogen. All hydrogen within the scenarios is produced from fossil
fuels.

Having completed this analysis, it is important to consider whether the RCEP scenarios
provide a wide enough range of possibilities for the next stage of the Tyndall Centre’s
assessment of electricity system security in 2050. They do not cover all possible outcomes.
This is not feasible using just four scenarios, each of which has to deliver a 60% cut in carbon
emissions. Possibilities that are not covered might include greater contributions from micro-
CHP. By 2050, a large proportion of households might have these units installed – perhaps
ten times the number included in the RCEP scenarios. Similarly, there may be a need to
consider a larger contribution from some renewables such as energy crops, wave or tidal
power.

For the Tyndall Centre’s research on UK electricity system security, the development of
scenarios using other combinations of technologies might not be necessary. The RCEP
scenarios might include a wide enough range of electricity system futures for 2050 to test the
limits of system security. Crucially, they cover possibilities in which the system is still quite
centralised (e.g. in scenario 1) and others in which it is almost wholly decentralised (e.g. in
scenarios 2 and 4). They also include a range of possibilities for the contribution of
intermittent renewables – particularly wind.

The need for additional scenarios will be kept under review as the next phase of research
progresses. The next phase will include some detailed modelling work that builds on the four
electricity scenarios that have been elaborated in this paper. This modelling will assess the
operational security implications of these scenarios on a seasonal, daily and hourly basis. It
will be complemented by economic and regulatory analysis to develop regulatory incentives
that will support the development of secure sustainable electricity systems.

9
Acknowledgements

This paper was developed as part of Tyndall Centre project T2.24: Security of Decarbonised
Electricity Systems. The author would like to thank a number of Tyndall Centre colleagues
for their comments on earlier drafts, particularly Dusko Nedic and Kevin Anderson.

References

DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) (2003) Our Energy Future: Creating a Low
Carbon Economy The Stationery Office, London.

DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) (1999) Digest of UK Energy Statistics The
Stationery Office, London.

RCEP (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution) (2000) Energy – The Changing

Climate RCEP, June.

Watson,J. (2003) Co-Provision in Sustainable Energy Systems: The Case of Micro-

generation Energy Policy, Special Issue on System Change, Forthcoming.

10
The trans-disciplinary Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research undertakes integrated research
into the long-term consequences of climate change for society and into the development of
sustainable responses that governments, business-leaders and decision-makers can evaluate and
implement. Achieving these objectives brings together UK climate scientists, social scientists,
engineers and economists in a unique collaborative research effort.
Research at the Tyndall Centre is organised into four research themes that collectively contribute
to all aspects of the climate change issue: Integrating Frameworks; Decarbonising Modern
Societies; Adapting to Climate Change; and Sustaining the Coastal Zone. All thematic fields
address a clear problem posed to society by climate change, and will generate results to guide the
strategic development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies at local, national and
global scales.
The Tyndall Centre is named after the 19th century UK scientist John Tyndall, who was the first to
prove the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in atmospheric
composition could bring about climate variations. In addition, he was committed to improving the
quality of science education and knowledge.
The Tyndall Centre is a partnership of the following institutions:
University of East Anglia
UMIST
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University of Southampton
University of Cambridge
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research (University of Sussex)
Institute for Transport Studies (University of Leeds)
Complex Systems Management Centre (Cranfield University)
Energy Research Unit (CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory)
The Centre is core funded by the following organisations:
Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC)
Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
UK Government Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)

For more information, visit the Tyndall Centre Web site (www.tyndall.ac.uk) or contact:
External Communications Manager
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Phone: +44 (0) 1603 59 3906; Fax: +44 (0) 1603 59 3901
Email: tyndall@uea.ac.uk
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