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Learning Curve PDF

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68 views

Learning Curve PDF

Uploaded by

Anonymous b4KfGr
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learning Curves

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.


What is a Learning Curves
▶ Based on the premise that people and
organizations become better at their
tasks as the tasks are repeated
▶ Time to produce a unit decreases as
more units are produced
▶ Learning curves typically follow a
negative exponential distribution
▶ Time savings per unit decreases over
time
Learning Curve Effect
Exponential graph of learning

100 –
Cost or time per repetition

50 –

| | | |
0 25 50 75 100
Cumulative repetitions (volume)
Learning Curve Effect
Log-log graph of learning
100
Cost or time per repetition

50
40

30

20

10 20 30 40 50 100
Cumulative repetitions (volume)
Learning Curves in Services
and Manufacturing
► Different organizations have different
learning curves
► Any change in process, product, or
personnel disrupts the learning curve
Limitations of Learning Curves
▶ Learning curves differ from company
to company as well as industry to
industry so estimates should be
developed for each organization
▶ Learning curves are often based on
time estimates which must be
accurate and should be reevaluated
when appropriate
Limitations of Learning Curves
▶ Any changes in personnel, design, or
procedure can be expected to alter the
learning curve
▶ Learning curves do not always apply to
indirect labor or material
▶ The culture of the workplace, resource
availability, and changes in the process
may alter the learning curve
Learning Curves
T x Ln = Time required for the nth unit

where T = unit cost or unit time of the first unit


L = learning curve rate
n = number of times T is doubled
First unit takes 10 labor-hours
70% learning curve is present
Fourth unit will require doubling twice — 1 to 2 to 4

Hours required for unit 4 = 10 x (.7)2 = 4.9 hours


Applying the Learning Curve
▶ For an 80% learning rate
NTH UNIT PRODUCED HOURS FOR NTH UNIT
1 100.0
2 80.0 = (.8 x 100)
4 64.0 = (.8 x 80)
8 51.2 = (.8 x 64)
16 41.0 = (.8 x 51.2)
Formula Approach:
1. Log Approach
Determine labor for any unit, TN , by
TN = T1(Nb)

where TN = time for the Nth unit


T1 = time to produce the first unit
b = (log of the learning rate)/(log 2)
= slope of the learning curve
Learning Curve:
2. Table Approach
TN = T1C

where TN = number of labor-hours required to


produce the Nth unit
T1 = number of labor-hours required to
produce the first unit
C = learning-curve coefficient found in
Coefficient Table (T3)
Learning-Curve Coefficients
Learning-Curve Coefficients, Where Coefficient,
TABLE 3
C = N(LOG OF LEARNING RATE/LOG 2)
70% 85%
UNIT
UNIT TIME TOTAL TIME UNIT TIME TOTAL TIME
NUMBER COEFFICIENT COEFFICIENT COEFFICIENT COEFFICIENT
(N)
1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 .700 1.700 .850 1.850
3 .568 2.268 .773 2.623
4 .490 2.758 .723 3.345
5 .437 3.195 .686 4.031
10 .306 4.932 .583 7.116
15 .248 6.274 .530 9.861
20 .214 7.407 .495 12.402
Coefficient Example
First boat required 125,000 hours
Labor cost = $40/hour
Learning factor = 85%
TN = T1C
T4 = (125,000 hours)(.723)
= 90,375 hours for the 4th boat
90,375 hours x $40/hour = $3,615,000

TN = T1C
T4 = (125,000 hours)(3.345)
= 418,125 hours for all four boats
Coefficient Example
Third boat required 100,000 hours
Learning factor = 85%

New estimate for the first boat

100,000
= 129,366 hours
0.773

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