3.binomial Distribution
3.binomial Distribution
3.binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial probability distribution or Bernoulli’s
distribution, Probability of r successes in n trials,
Recurrence or Recursion formula, Mean and Variance
Prepared by:
Dr. Sunil
NIT Hamirpur (HP)
Last updated on 30-10-2007
Binomial Distribution
This distribution was discovered by a Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli
in 1713. It is concerned with trials of a repetitive nature in which only the
occurrence or non-occurrence, success or failure, acceptance or rejection, yes or no
of a particular event is of interest. This distribution is applied to problems
concerning:
• Number of defectives in a sample from production line,
• Estimation of reliability of system,
• Number of rounds fired from a gun hitting a target,
• Radar detection.
Binomial probability distribution or Bernoulli’s distribution:
Let there be n independent trials in an experiment. Let a random variable X
denote the number of successes in these n trials. Let p be the probability of a success and
q that of a failure in a single trial so that p + q = 1 . Let the trial be independent and q be
constant for every trial.
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 2
∴ P(X = r )= n C r P (S S S.......S) F
1F42 F.........
43F
14 4244 3
r times (n − r ) times
=n Cr P
1P4P2
.......
43 P q q q..........q
14243
n factors (n − r ) factors
=n Cr pr q n − r (i)
which are the successive terms of the binomial expansion of (q + p )n . That is why this
distribution is called “binomial” distribution.
3. n and p occurring in the binomial distribution are called the parameters of the
distribution.
4. In a binomial distribution:
(i) n, the number of trials is finite.
(ii) each trial has only two possible outcomes usually called success and failure.
(iii) all the trials are independent.
(iv) p (and hence q) is constant for all the trials.
Recurrence or Recursion formula for the binomial distribution:
In a binomial distribution,
n!
P(r )= n C r q n − r p r = q n −r pr
(n − r )! r!
n!
P(r + 1)=n C r +1 q n − r −1p r +1 = q n − r −1p r +1
(n − r − 1)! (r + 1)!
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 3
∴
P(r + 1)
=
(n − r )! × r! × p = (n − r ) × (n − r − 1)! × r! × p = n − r . p
P( r ) (n − r − 1)! (r + 1)! q (n − r − 1)! (r + 1) × r! q r + 1 q
n−r p
⇒ P(r + 1) = . P(r ) ,
r +1 q
which is the required recurrence formula. Applying this formula successively, we can
find P(1), P(2), P(3),…, if P(0) is known.
Constants of the binomial distribution:
Mean and Variance of the binomial distribution:
n (n − 1) n − 2 2 n (n − 1)(n − 2 ) n −3 3
= nq n −1p + 2. q p + 3. q p + ........ + n.p n
2 .1 3 .2 .1
n (n − 1)(n − 2 ) n −3 3
= nq n −1p + n (n − 1)q n − 2 p 2 + q p + ...... + np n
2 .1
(n − 1)(n − 2 ) n −3 2
= np q n −1 + (n − 1)q n − 2 p + q p + .........p n −1
2 .1
= np [ n −1
C0q n −1 + n −1 C1q n − 2p + n −1 C 2q n −3.p 2 + ...... + n −1 C n −1p n −1 ]
= np(p + p )n −1 = np . [Q p + q = 1]
Hence the mean of the binomial distribution is np.
n n
Variance σ2 = ∑ r 2 P(r ) − µ 2 = ∑ [r + r(r − 1)]P(r) − µ2
r =0 r =0
n n n
= ∑ rP(r ) + ∑ r (r − 1)P(r ) − µ 2 = µ + ∑ r (r − 1) n C r q n − r p r − µ 2
r =0 r =0 r =2
[
= µ + 2.1.n C 2q n − 2 p 2 + 3.2.n C3q n −3p3 + ........ + n (n − 1) n C n p n − µ 2 ]
n (n − 1) n − 2 2 n (n − 1)(n − 2) n −3 3
= µ + 2 .1 . q p + 3. 2. q p + ...... + n (n − 1)p n
2 .1 3 .2 .1
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 4
[
= µ + n (n − 1)q n − 2 p 2 + n (n − 1)(n − 2)q n −3p3 + ............. + n (n − 1)p n − µ 2 ]
[
= µ + n (n − 1)p 2 q n − 2 + (n − 2)q n −3p + ....... + p n − 2 − µ 2 ]
= µ + n (n − 1)p [ 2 n −2
]
C0q n − 2 + n − 2 C1q n −3p + .........+ n − 2 C n − 2 p n − 2 − µ 2
= µ + n (n − 1)p 2 (q + p )n − 2 − µ 2 = µ + n (n − 1)p 2 − µ 2 [Q q + p = 1]
= np + n (n − 1)p 2 − n 2p 2 [Q µ = np]
= np[1 + (n − 1)p − np] = np[1 − p] = npq .
Hence the variance of the binomial distribution is npq.
Standard deviation of the binomial distribution is npq .
The moment generating function about the origin is
( )
M 0 (t ) = E e tx =∑ n
C x p x q n − x e tx =∑ n
( ) x
(
C x pe t q n − x = q + pe t ).
n
(m ) = np , is given by
(
M m (t ) = e− npt q + pe t ) = (qe
n − pt
+ peqt )
n
n
t2 3 4
2!
2
= 1 + pq + pq q − p 2 t
3!
(3
+ pq q − p 3 t
4!
) (
+ ............
)
t2 t3 t4
⇒ 1 + µ1t + µ 2 + µ3 + µ 4 + ................
2! 3! 4!
t2 t3 t4
= 1 + npq + npq (q − p ) + npq[1 + 3(n − 2 )pq ] + .........
2! 3! 4!
Equating the coefficient of like powers of t on either side, we have
µ 2 = npq, µ3 = npq(q − p ), µ 4 = npq[1 + 3(n − 2)pq ] .
Also β1 =
µ32
=
(q − p )2 =
(1 − 2p )2 and β 2 =
µ32
= 3+
1 − 6pt
.
µ32 npq npq µ32 npq
Skewness =
(1− 2p) , kurtosis = β2 .
(npq )
1 1 1
Remarks: The skewness is positive for p < and negative for p > . When p = , the
2 2 2
skewness is zero, i. e. the probability curve of the binomial distribution will be
symmetrical.
As the number of the trials increase indefinitely, β1 → 0 and β3 → 3 .
Now let us solve some problems for better illustration of the Binomial
distribution:
= 1− [
12
]
C0 (0.1)0 (0.9)12 +12 C1 (0.1)(0.9)11 = 1 − [0.28243 + (12 × 0.1 × 0.31381)] .
(c) The probability that none will be defective =12 C12 (0.9)12 = 0.28243 . Ans.
Q.No.2.: In sampling a large number of parts manufactured by a machine, the mean
number of defectives in a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such samples, how
many would be expected to contain at least 3 defective parts.
Sol.: Mean number of defectives = 2 = np = 20p.
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 6
2
∴ The probability of defective part is p = = 0 .1 ,
20
and the probability of a non-defective part = 0.9.
∴ The probability of at least three defectives in a sample of 20
= 1− [20
C0 (0.9)20 + 20 C1 (0.1)(0.9)19 + 20 C 2 (0.1)2 (0.9)18 ]
= 1 − [0.121577 + 0.27017 + 0.28518] = 1 − 0.676927 = 0.323073
Thus the number of samples having at least three defective parts out of 1000 samples
= 1000 × 0.323 = 323 . Ans.
Q.No.3.: The following data are the number of seeds germinating out of 10 on damp
filter paper for 80 sets of seeds. Fit a binomial distribution to these data .
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f: 6 20 28 12 8 6 0 0 0 0
∴ Mean =
∑ fi x i =
20 + 56 + 36 + 32 + 30 174
= = 2.175
∑ fi 80 80
10 C0 (.7825)10 +10 C1 (.7825)9 (.2175)1 +10 C 2 (.7825)8 (.2175)2 +10 C3 (.7825)7 (.2175)3
= 80. +10 C 4 (.7825)6 (.2175)4 +10 C5 (.7825)5 (.2175)5 +10 C6 (.7825)4 (.2175)6
10 C7 (.7825)3 (.2175)7 +10 C8 (.7825)2 (.2175)8 +10 C9 (.7825)1 (.2175)9 +10 C10 (.2175)10
= 6.885 + 19.139 + 23.94 + 17.74 + 8.63 + 2.88 + 0.67 + 0.11 + 0.011 + 0.0007 + 0.00002
∴ The successive terms in the expansion give the expected or theoretical frequencies
which are;
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f: 6.9 19.1 24.0 17.8 8.6 2.9 .7 0.1 0 0 0
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 7
Q.No.4.: An ordinary six-faced die is thrown four times. What are the probabilities of
obtaining 4, 3, 2, 1 and 0 faces, having same number ?
Sol.: There are six possible ways in which the die can fall and of these there is only one
way of throwing any number .
1 1 5
Thus the probability of occurrence of a particular number = p = , then q = 1 − = .
6 6 6
Since this problem is concerned with trials of a repetitive nature in which only the
occurrence or non-occurrence of a particular event is of interest, so we use Binomial
distribution and in this distribution the probability of r successes in a series of 4 trials is
given by
r 4− r
1 5
n
Cr pr q n − r =4 Cr , where r = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
6 6
Q.No.5.: If the chance that one of the ten telephone lines is busy at an instant is 0.2.
(a) What is the chance that 5 of the lines are busy ?
(b) What is the most probable number of busy lines and what is the probability
of this number ?
(c) What is the probability that all the lines are busy ?
Sol.: In this problem,
the chance that one of the ten telephone lines is busy at an instant is p = 0.2
∴ q = 1 − 0 .2 = 0 .8 .
Since this problem is concerned with trials of a repetitive nature in which only the
occurrence or non-occurrence of a particular event is of interest, so we use Binomial
distribution and in this distribution the probability of r successes in a series of n trials is
given by n
Cr p rq n − r .
(a). Here n = 10, r = 5, then
the chance that 5 of the lines are busy = n C r p r q n − r =10 C5 (0.2)5 (0.8)10 −5
10 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6
= × (0.0032 )(0.32768) = 0.026424. Ans.
5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
(b). 0.04571. Ans.
(c). Here n = 10, r = 10, then
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 8
the probability that all the lines i.e. 10 are busy = n C r p r q n − r =10 C10 (0.2)10 (0.8)10 −10
given by n
Cr p rq n − r .
Thus the probability that in a family of 5 children (i.e. n = 5) there are exactly 3 boys
(i.e. r = 3)
5× 4
= n C r p r q n − r =5 C3 (0.6 )3 (0.4 )5 −3 = × (0.216 ) × (0.16 ) = 0.3456 . Ans.
2 ×1
Q.No.7.: If on an average 1 vessel in every 10 is wrecked, find the probability that out of
5 vessels expected to arrive, at least 4 will arrive safely.
1
Sol.: The probability of a wrecked vessel is p = = 0 .1 .
10
1 9
∴ The probability of a non wrecked vessel is q = 1 − = = 0 .9 .
10 10
∴ The probability of atleast 4 will arrive safely
= The probability of 4 will arrive safely + the probability of 5 will arrive safely
[ ]
= 1 − 6 C0 (0.2)0 (0.8)6 + 6 C1 (0.2)1 (0.8)6 −1 = 1 − [0.262144 + 6 × (0.2) × (0.32768)]
= 1 − 0.65536 = 0.34464. Ans.
Q.No.9.: A sortie of 20 aeroplane is sent on an operational flight. The chances that an
aeroplane fails to return is 5%. Find the probability that
(i) one plane does not return,
(ii) at the most five planes do not return, and
(iii) what is the most probable number of returns ?
5 1
Sol.: The probability that an aeroplane does not return = 5% = = = 0.05
100 20
So the probability of return = 1 − 0.05 = 0.95
(a) The expected number of families having 3 boys = 800 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)2 = 250 . Ans.
(b) The expected number of families having 5 girls = 800 5 C5 (0.5)0 (0.5)5 = 25 . Ans.
(c) The expected number of families having either 2 or 3 boys
[ ]
= 800 5 C 2 (0.5)2 (0.5)3 + 5 C3 (0.5)3 (0.5)2 = 800[0.3125 + 0.3125] = 500 . Ans.
Q.No.12.: If 10 per cent of the rivets produced by a machine are defective, find the
probability that out of 5 rivets chosen at random
(i) none will be defective,
(ii) one will be defective, and
(iii) at least two will be defective.
Sol.: No of defective rivets produced by a machine out of 100 = 10 %.
10 1
∴ Probability of defective rivets out of 100 rivets p = = .
100 10
1 9
Then probability of non-defective rivets q = 1 − = .
10 10
Given n = 5.
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 11
0 5 5
1 9
5 9
(i). Probability of none defective rivets = C0 = = 0.59049 . Ans.
10 10 10
1 5 −1 4
19
5 5 1 9
(ii). Probability of one defective rivets = C1 = C1
10 10 10 10
5 × 94
= = 0.32805 . Ans.
105
(iii). Probability of at least two defective rivets
= 1 − [Probability of none defective rivets + Probability of one defective rivets]
5 1 0 9 5 5 1 1 9 4
= 1 − C0 + C1
10 10 10 10
n + 1
Probability of target destroyed = 1 − n .
2
Since 99%probability or more of completely destroying the target.
n +1 99 1 n +1
⇒ 1− n
≥ ⇒ ≥ n .
2 100 100 2
Binomial (or Bernoulli’s) Distribution Prepared by: Dr. Sunil, NIT Hamirpur (HP) 12
=100 C0 (0.005)0 (0.995)100 +100 C1 (0.005)(0.995)99 +100 C 2 (0.005) 2 (0.995)98 +100 C3 (0.005)3 (0.995)97
= (0.995)97 [
100
C0 (0.995)3 +100 C1 (0.005)(0.995) 2 +100 C 2 (0.005) 2 (0.995)1 +100 C3 (0.005)3 ]
= (0.995)97 [0.98505 + 0.4950125 + 0.12313125 + 0.0202125]
∴ Mean =
∑ fi x i =
0 + 14 + 40 + 102 + 88 + 40 284
= = 2.84 .
∑ fi 100 100
∴ Mean =
∑ fi x i =
0 + 25 + 104 + 174 + 128 + 80 + 24 535
= = 2.675 .
∑ fi 200 200
2.675
i.e. np = 6p = 2.8675 ⇒ p = = 0.4458 , and ∴ q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.4458 = 0.5542
6
Hence the Binomial distribution to be fitted is