PUNJAB ADP 2014-15: Planning & Development Board
PUNJAB ADP 2014-15: Planning & Development Board
PUNJAB ADP 2014-15: Planning & Development Board
Security deficit
4
Transforming Punjab
6. Providing Full
5. Ensuring
4. Export Buoyancy Social Sector
Effective Security
Coverage
5
(Billion Rs.)
2013-14 2014-15
Programme (Proposed)
Change
Budgeted Revised
• Increase in per capita income will be 58% in nominal terms and 20% in real
terms
• Province tax to GRP ratio will rise from 0.7% to 2.0% of GRP
70%
2013-14 2014-15 59%
60%
51%
50%
42%
40%
30%
20% 15%
10%
0%
Block Ongoing Completion
Ongoing Vs New
16
(Billion Rs.
149 150
135
No.
3000 2786
91
100
2000 1608 1495
1396 1173 1041 50
1000 625
291 274 362 403
0 0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Throw forward
17
% of Total ADP
150% 2013-14 2014-15
139%
140%
130%
120% 118%
110%
100%
2013-14 2014-15
19
ADP 2014-15 by Region and Gender
36% 36%
% of Total
ADP
10%
(Million Rs)
Program Allocation
Integrated Reproductive Maternal New Born & Child Health (RMNCH) & 1,800
Nutrition Program
Women Development Fund 900
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Health & Family Planning 25,650 31,070 21%
Water Supply & Sanitation 12,368 17,118 38%
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Infrastructure Development 94,614 148,532 57%
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Production Sectors 17,995 26,320 46%
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Cooperative 100
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Services Sectors 8,071 9,493 18%
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Abstract
Budgeted (Million Rs)
Sectors % growth
2013-14 2014-15
Projects Allocation
Missing Facilities in 10,000-Schools 8,000
Projects Allocation
Conversion of Existing IT Lab on Solar Energy
1,200
Projects Allocation
Provision of Laptops 3,500
Establishment of 138 Colleges 3,428
Punjab Education Endowment Fund 2,000
Provision of missing facilities in 87 Colleges 1,378
Khawaja Farid University of Engineering & IT 793
Knowledge Park, Lahore 500
Establishment of New Universities 348
HEALTH & FAMILY PLANNING 36
Projects Allocation
Health Insurance Card 4,000
Punjab Millennium Development Goals Program 2,000
Integrated Reproductive Maternal New Born & Child Health (RMNCH) &
1,800
Nutrition Program
Medical Colleges at Sahiwal, D.G. Khan, Sialkot, Gujranwala & Bahawalnagar 1,281
Mobile Health Units in Punjab 1,000
Expansion of Tayyab Erdgon Hospital Muzaffargarh 300
Pakistan Kidney and Liver Institute, Lahore 300
Establishment of Cancer Hospital, Lahore. 300
HEALTH & FAMILY PLANNING 37
Projects Allocation
38
Local Government & Community Development
Major Initiatives & Allocations
(Million Rs)
Projects Allocation
Model cattle markets 1,000
Improving condition of Public graveyards 1,000
39
SKILLS DEVELOPMENT 40
TEVTA 2,000
PVTC 1,000
IRRIGATION
Major Initiatives & Allocations
(Million Rs)
Project Allocation
New Khanki Barrage 6,725
Lower Bari Doab Canal 5,660
Jinnah Barrage 4,175
Punjab Irrigation System Improvement Project 3,590
Lining of Canals and Minors 400 kms 2,400
Rehabilitation of Lower Chenab Canal System 2,100
Small Dams in Pothohar area 2,000
Pakpattan Canal and Sulemanki Barrage 1,750
Management of hill torrents in DG Khan and Rajanpur 1,162
Tayyab Drain in Rajanpur 250
Trimmu Barrage, Punjnad Head Works 110
41
ENERGY 42
Bio-mass based Power Plants set-up near wheat & rice producing areas 2,000
4x55MW coal power plants at Sundar Industrial Estate and Industrial Estate
900
Faisalabad (2 plants each) (PPP Mode)
Co-generation power plants using Bagasse-cum-coal/ other fuel 500
Project Allocation
Mass Transit System, Rawalpindi 10,000
Mass Transit System, Multan & Faisalabad 10,500
Provision of Sewerage System in different UCs of Lahore 1,400
Improvement of Water Supply System in Tajpura, Samanabad and
1,100
Shadbagh Zones of Lahore
Replacement of Outlived and inadequate Water Supply lines with HDPE
800
pipes, Lahore (Gastro Phase-II)
Project Allocation
End
Low GDP Growth from 1999 to 2012 in 48
Punjab
Average GDP Growth Performance of Punjab from 1999-00 to 2012-13
4.5
Punjab Pakistan 4.1
4
3.6
3.5 3.3
2.9 2.9 3
% 3 2.7 2.7
2.5
1.5
Agriculture Industry Services Total
Source: IPP Annual Report 2012
49
Investment decline
Pakistan’s Public and Private Investment as % of GDP (2007 to 2013)
18 17.2
16
13.9
14 13 12.8
12 10.6
9.9 10.2
% of GDP
10 9.2 9.3
8 7.5 7.3
6.6
6
4 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.2
1.9 1.5 1.3
1.6 1.8 1.4 1.4
2 1.2
0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Private Sector Public - Provincial Public - Federal Total Linear (Total)
Source: State Bank Annual Reports, Estimated by Dr. Hafiz Pasha
50
Punjab has excess industrial capacity
Excess (Unutilized capacity) in various Industries, 2011-12
Vegetable Ghee 51
42
Sugar 49
25
Cement 42
32
Cotton Cloth 32
28
Cotton Yarn 30 Punjab
8
Fertilizer 20
17
Cigarettes 19
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Core constraint: Energy. Removing shortage has potential to increase growth rate of GRP by 2%
Binding constraints: Cost of doing business, Skills and Security
Source: State Bank Annual Reports, Estimated by Dr. Hafiz Pasha
51
Stagnant exports
Exports as % of GDP
25
India
20
exports as share GDP (%)
15
Pakistan
10
5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Cotton 62%
Sugarcane 28%
Wheat 43%
Rice 44%
Binding constraints: Water stress, inefficient use of water, non-availability of quality seeds,
imbalanced use of fertilizers, poor Research
Source: Income Accounts for India and Pakistan, 2013. Computations done by Dr. Hafeez Pasha
Pakistan’s Declining Water Availability 53
This estimate is from 2005. Recent estimates say our current water availability is close to the
water scarcity level - 1,000 cubic meters per person per year
Sources: World Bank & Oxford University, 2005
Social sector deficits: Education MDGs 54
2015
Punjab’s performance in Millennium Development Goals 2015 in education
100 100 Target Punjab
100
88
78.2
80
61 62
60
%
40
20
0
Net Primary Enrollment Primary completion rate Young adults Literacy
Sources: Punjab Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey 2011 report
55
Social sector deficits: Health MDGs 2015
Punjab’s performance in Millennium Development Goals 2015 in Health
120 Target Punjab 250 227
104 Target Punjab
100
100 90 86 200
82
80 140
150
60 52 48 100
40 100 74
40
55
50 35
20
2 3.6
0 0
Under 5 Infant Immunization LHW Coverage Maternal Total Fertility Ante-natal Contraceptive
mortality rate mortality rate of 1 year olds mortality Rate treatment prevalence
against
measels
Sources: Punjab Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey 2011 report
56
Pakistan hosts the 3rd largest openly defecating population in the world…….40 million people,
mostly poor
Sources: Water and Sanitation Program, World Bank
%
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
Rawalpindi
Attock
Jhelum
Chakwal
Sargodha
Mianwali
Bhakkar
Khushab
Gujranwa…
Hafizabad
Use of Properly Treated Water
Gujrat
Sialkot
Narowal
M. B. Din
Lahore
Muzaffar…
Layyah
Bahawal…
Bahawal…
R.Y. Khan
57
58
Regional Imbalance
Net Enrolment Ratio
59
Regional Imbalance
Infant mortality rate
Deaths per 1000 live births Total
60
Regional Imbalance
Polio Immunization Coverage
Percent Total
Youth unemployment and high incidence 61
of low-end jobs
Type of employment in Punjab Unemployment rates for various age
groups in Punjab
50% 7.2%
5.5%
20% 2.9%
17%
13%
Low End Self High End Casual Wage Salaried 15-19 yrs 20-24 yrs 25-29 yrs
Employed Self
Employed
Vulnerable Employment = 9.3 Million Unemployment = 1.2 Million
62
Widening Skills gaps
TVET Enrolment Ratio (% of Secondary Enrolment)
60%
55%
40%
33% 35%
31%
25%
10%
Russia
China
Chile
Indonesi
Korea
Pakistan
Average
Target
India's
Global
a
Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators and Punjab Skills Development Fund
63
India (2011)
population)
60
48.3
40
20 12.9
7.8
2.7 2.8 3.5 2.6
0
Homicide Crime against Property
Sources: Punjab Growth Strategy (forthcoming)
64
Security Deficit in Punjab
Trends in Reported Crime in Punjab (Incidents per 100,000 population)
200
(Incidents per 100,000 population)
160
120
80
40
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Property Crime in Districts with 4 million plus cities
Property Crime in other districts
Person Crime in Districts with 4 million plus cities
Person Crime in Other districts
Sources: Punjab Growth Strategy (forthcoming)
Financing of ADP and MTDF
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
65
66
Social Sector 46 44
Infrastructure Development 45 75
Production Sector 14 4
Services 0.4 9
Others 3 4